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000
FXUS65 KCYS 201119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SCT MID CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TODAY. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM WESTERN MONTANA DOWN INTO NORTHERN NEVADA...AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z AND BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S AND
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON VS
THE GFS...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO BETWEEN MINUS 1 AND MINUS 2. BUT
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT WHOLLY CONVINCE THERE WONT
BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TREKS SOUTH ACROSS
THIS AREA...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS AND WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WITHIN CONVERGENT SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE. OTHERWISE...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY CALM AND PLEASANT
DAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ADVECTING UPPER
30S TO 40S DEW POINTS INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. A PIECE OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9C.
SO...EXPECT A BROADER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...OROGRAPHICS...AND
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEESIDE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FOR NOW THO AS WAA ALOFT AND POSSIBLE
MIDLEVEL DRY SLOTTING COULD LIMIT OVERALL EXPANSE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. BUT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR THE
POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WHERE LLVL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE ONGOING
CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING. NAM
SHOWING 40 TO LOW 50 DEWPOINTS IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
AND NAM SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF ENDING AROUND 06Z. WENT
AHEAD WITH CHANCE POPS AS IT REMAINS UNSTABLE OUT THERE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. NAM FORECASTING LIFTED INDICES OF -3 TO -4C. TO
THE WEST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING WITH
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE JUST WEST OF CARBON COUNTY TUESDAY
EVENING. FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TOO...SO A
COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE AIR AND UPSLOPING CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE
US FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH 700MB WINDS REALLY RAMPING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50KTS BEHIND
THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FOR SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
SEE OUR WIND PRONE AREAS HITTING WARNING CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION COMES TRUE.

WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE GFS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF KEEP 700MB WINDS OF 40KTS OR HIGHER. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING...EASING THE GRADIENT AND WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TSTMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. DO
THINK FOR THE MOST PART THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AND THAT IS
WHAT WE HAVE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR KCYS...KLAR AND KRWL.
VFR IN THE PANHANDLE A PRETTY SURE BET AS CONVECTION WILL BE WEST
OVER CENTRAL WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY FROM
THIS ACTIVITY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY ON MONDAY. GOOD RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 200934
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SCT MID CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TODAY. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
FROM WESTERN MONTANA DOWN INTO NORTHERN NEVADA...AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z AND BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S AND
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON VS
THE GFS...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO BETWEEN MINUS 1 AND MINUS 2. BUT
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT WHOLLY CONVINCE THERE WONT
BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TREKS SOUTH ACROSS
THIS AREA...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS AND WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WITHIN CONVERGENT SFC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE. OTHERWISE...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY CALM AND PLEASANT
DAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ADVECTING UPPER
30S TO 40S DEW POINTS INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. A PIECE OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9C.
SO...EXPECT A BROADER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...OROGRAPHICS...AND
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEESIDE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FOR NOW THO AS WAA ALOFT AND POSSIBLE
MIDLEVEL DRY SLOTTING COULD LIMIT OVERALL EXPANSE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. BUT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR THE
POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WHERE LLVL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE ONGOING
CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING. NAM
SHOWING 40 TO LOW 50 DEWPOINTS IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
AND NAM SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF ENDING AROUND 06Z. WENT
AHEAD WITH CHANCE POPS AS IT REMAINS UNSTABLE OUT THERE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. NAM FORECASTING LIFTED INDICES OF -3 TO -4C. TO
THE WEST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING WITH
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE JUST WEST OF CARBON COUNTY TUESDAY
EVENING. FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TOO...SO A
COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE AIR AND UPSLOPING CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE
US FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH 700MB WINDS REALLY RAMPING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50KTS BEHIND
THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FOR SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL AT LEAST
SEE OUR WIND PRONE AREAS HITTING WARNING CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION COMES TRUE.

WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE GFS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF KEEP 700MB WINDS OF 40KTS OR HIGHER. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING...EASING THE GRADIENT AND WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
REMAIN UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. DO NOT FORESEE ANY WEATHER
IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY FROM
THIS ACTIVITY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY ON MONDAY. GOOD RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM










000
FXUS65 KCYS 200523
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1123 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATED THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAD ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

EASTERLY WINDS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST...MAINLY IN CARBON COUNTY WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY BUT GRAUPLE/SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL DEPART INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN SUNDAY BUT STILL THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION BUT AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST COASTAL AREAS. A BIT
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST TO INTERACT WITH A MINOR IMPULSE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. TURNING COOLER WEDS AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM BUT BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HINDERS ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
REMAIN UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. DO NOT FORSEE ANY WEATHER
IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY DROP TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE RECOVERIES WILL BE INTO THE 70 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. BREEZY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...SML








000
FXUS65 KCYS 200311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
911 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATED THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAD ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK FOR LOWS TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

EASTERLY WINDS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST...MAINLY IN CARBON COUNTY WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY BUT GRAUPLE/SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL DEPART INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN SUNDAY BUT STILL THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION BUT AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST COASTAL AREAS. A BIT
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST TO INTERACT WITH A MINOR IMPULSE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. TURNING COOLER WEDS AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM BUT BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HINDERS ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO FLARE UP
ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN A FEW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY DROP TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE RECOVERIES WILL BE INTO THE 70 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. BREEZY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML









000
FXUS65 KCYS 200001
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
601 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

EASTERLY WINDS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST...MAINLY IN CARBON COUNTY WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY BUT GRAUPLE/SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL DEPART INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN SUNDAY BUT STILL THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION BUT AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST COASTAL AREAS. A BIT
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST TO INTERACT WITH A MINOR IMPULSE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. TURNING COOLER WEDS AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM BUT BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HINDERS ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO FLARE UP
ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN A FEW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY DROP TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE RECOVERIES WILL BE INTO THE 70 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. BREEZY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML








000
FXUS65 KCYS 192030
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

EASTERLY WINDS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST...MAINLY IN CARBON COUNTY WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY BUT GRAUPLE/SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL DEPART INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN SUNDAY BUT STILL THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION BUT AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST COASTAL AREAS. A BIT
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST TO INTERACT WITH A MINOR IMPULSE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. TURNING COOLER WEDS AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM BUT BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HINDERS ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AERODROMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT SOME PDS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY DROP TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE RECOVERIES WILL BE INTO THE 70 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. BREEZY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML






000
FXUS65 KCYS 191724
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1124 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ONLY CONCERN IS THICK
CIRRUS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. COOL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL NOT HELP
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WINDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH THAN MODELS EARLIER
PROJECTED. NAM AND GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...STEEP SURFACE BASED
LAPSE RATES WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
TODAY...BUT KEPT IT GOING TO THE WEST WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE WILL
PRODUCE THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING EVEN EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING...LIGHTNING
CHANCES ARE REMOTE AT BEST. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL GRAUPLE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOW...BUT THE COMBO OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS.
LOOKS AS THOUGH AREAS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
NAM PAINTS INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 200 J/KG WITHIN THE
BEST...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO. TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE WHERE LLVL FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5F COOLER. SFC WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SO MAY SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE VCTY LARAMIE RANGE.
COOLER SFC TEMPS AND WAA ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST WILL MINIMIZE INSTABILITY AND THUS TSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRETTY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWFA. THESE
ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +4C MONDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO +8C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WARM
DAY TUESDAY WITH 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WESTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...700MB WINDS BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH THE GFS SHOW 50KTS AT 700MBS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 60MTRS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASES TO 70MTRS DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6C ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LOOK TO BE THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
AREAS EAST WILL BE IMPACTED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...SO KEPT THESE
AREAS DRY.

CONCERNS FOR WIND HEADLINES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS. SHOULD BE AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT THERE...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AERODROMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT SOME PDS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LESS
WIND. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. AFTER A COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 191658
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1058 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ONLY CONCERN IS THICK
CIRRUS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. COOL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL NOT HELP
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WINDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH THAN MODELS EARLIER
PROJECTED. NAM AND GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...STEEP SURFACE BASED
LAPSE RATES WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
TODAY...BUT KEPT IT GOING TO THE WEST WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE WILL
PRODUCE THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING EVEN EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING...LIGHTNING
CHANCES ARE REMOTE AT BEST. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL GRAUPLE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOW...BUT THE COMBO OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS.
LOOKS AS THOUGH AREAS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
NAM PAINTS INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 200 J/KG WITHIN THE
BEST...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO. TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE WHERE LLVL FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5F COOLER. SFC WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SO MAY SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE VCTY LARAMIE RANGE. COOLER
SFC TEMPS AND WAA ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL MINIMIZE INSTABILITY AND THUS TSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRETTY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWFA. THESE
ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +4C MONDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO +8C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WARM
DAY TUESDAY WITH 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WESTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...700MB WINDS BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH THE GFS SHOW 50KTS AT 700MBS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 60MTRS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASES TO 70MTRS DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6C ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LOOK TO BE THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
AREAS EAST WILL BE IMPACTED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...SO KEPT THESE
AREAS DRY.

CONCERNS FOR WIND HEADLINES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS. SHOULD BE AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT THERE...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z FOR KCYS AND KRWL. FOLLOWED THIS
GUIDANCE IN TAFS. CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT TO KBFF AFTER 00Z...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON TSTMS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LESS
WIND. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. AFTER A COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 191109
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
509 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOW...BUT THE COMBO OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS.
LOOKS AS THOUGH AREAS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
NAM PAINTS INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 200 J/KG WITHIN THE
BEST...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO. TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE WHERE LLVL FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5F COOLER. SFC WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SO MAY SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE VCTY LARAMIE RANGE. COOLER
SFC TEMPS AND WAA ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL MINIMIZE INSTABILITY AND THUS TSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRETTY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWFA. THESE
ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +4C MONDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO +8C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WARM
DAY TUESDAY WITH 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WESTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...700MB WINDS BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH THE GFS SHOW 50KTS AT 700MBS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 60MTRS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASES TO 70MTRS DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6C ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LOOK TO BE THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
AREAS EAST WILL BE IMPACTED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...SO KEPT THESE
AREAS DRY.

CONCERNS FOR WIND HEADLINES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS. SHOULD BE AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT THERE...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z FOR KCYS AND KRWL. FOLLOWED THIS
GUIDANCE IN TAFS. CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT TO KBFF AFTER 00Z...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LESS
WIND. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. AFTER A COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 190856
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOW...BUT THE COMBO OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS.
LOOKS AS THOUGH AREAS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
NAM PAINTS INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 200 J/KG WITHIN THE
BEST...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO. TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE WHERE LLVL FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5F COOLER. SFC WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SO MAY SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE VCTY LARAMIE RANGE. COOLER
SFC TEMPS AND WAA ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL MINIMIZE INSTABILITY AND THUS TSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRETTY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWFA. THESE
ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +4C MONDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO +8C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WARM
DAY TUESDAY WITH 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WESTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...700MB WINDS BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH THE GFS SHOW 50KTS AT 700MBS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 60MTRS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASES TO 70MTRS DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6C ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LOOK TO BE THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
AREAS EAST WILL BE IMPACTED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...SO KEPT THESE
AREAS DRY.

CONCERNS FOR WIND HEADLINES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS. SHOULD BE AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT THERE...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR NOW...WENT WITH
VCTS/VCSH FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS. WILL TRY TO
NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC AIRPORTS AND TIMES ON UPCOMING TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LESS
WIND. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. AFTER A COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM










000
FXUS65 KCYS 190554
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1154 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN QUESTION THIS EVENING IS IF CONVECTION CAN ACTUALLY BE
SUSTAINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WHICH
HAS DEVELOPED HAS QUICKLY DIED OFF AFTER FORMATION...SO BEGINNING TO
WONDER IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS
POINT. CIRRUS DECK TODAY WAS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
STRONGER SURFACE WARMING AND DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. ALSO
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL ARE ON THE DRY SIDE. VERY WELL MAY NEED TO
TAKE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF NOTHING DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WITH MOISTURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT WOULD BE
ABOUT IT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
NORTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT INTO THE AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND NEAR 80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NE PANHANDLE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE EXACT
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS
TRENDING NORTHWARD AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE. THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE STORM NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SAME...SO IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANY TREND SOUTHWARD AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY FROM MOVING ONSHORE SO WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA SOMETIME
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...KEPT POP BETWEEN
15 TO 30 PERCENT...HIGHEST FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY BECAUSE
OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...UNLESS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD WHERE
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WIND...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURES
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR NOW...WENT WITH
VCTS/VCSH FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS. WILL TRY TO
NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC AIRPORTS AND TIMES ON UPCOMING TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITY
INCREASES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR TOMORROW. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON/SML








000
FXUS65 KCYS 182356
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN QUESTION THIS EVENING IS IF CONVECTION CAN ACTUALLY BE
SUSTAINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WHICH
HAS DEVELOPED HAS QUICKLY DIED OFF AFTER FORMATION...SO BEGINNING TO
WONDER IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS
POINT. CIRRUS DECK TODAY WAS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
STRONGER SURFACE WARMING AND DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. ALSO
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL ARE ON THE DRY SIDE. VERY WELL MAY NEED TO
TAKE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF NOTHING DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WITH MOISTURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT WOULD BE
ABOUT IT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
NORTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT INTO THE AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND NEAR 80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NE PANHANDLE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE EXACT
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS
TRENDING NORTHWARD AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE. THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE STORM NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SAME...SO IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANY TREND SOUTHWARD AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY FROM MOVING ONSHORE SO WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA SOMETIME
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...KEPT POP BETWEEN
15 TO 30 PERCENT...HIGHEST FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY BECAUSE
OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...UNLESS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD WHERE
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WIND...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING VIRGA SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING TO
THE EAST OF CHEYENNE. MAY SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS UNDERNEATH THESE
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CDR AND LAR TAF SITES
BY 03Z...CYS...AIA...BFF BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z AND SNY BY 10Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITY
INCREASES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR TOMORROW. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...REC/RAE
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON/SML









000
FXUS65 KCYS 182108
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
308 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN QUESTION THIS EVENING IS IF CONVECTION CAN ACTUALLY BE
SUSTAINED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WHICH
HAS DEVELOPED HAS QUICKLY DIED OFF AFTER FORMATION...SO BEGINNING TO
WONDER IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS
POINT. CIRRUS DECK TODAY WAS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
STRONGER SURFACE WARMING AND DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. ALSO
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL ARE ON THE DRY SIDE. VERY WELL MAY NEED TO
TAKE MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF NOTHING DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WITH MOISTURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT WOULD BE
ABOUT IT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
NORTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT INTO THE AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND NEAR 80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NE PANHANDLE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE EXACT
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS
TRENDING NORTHWARD AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE. THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE STORM NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SAME...SO IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANY TREND SOUTHWARD AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY FROM MOVING ONSHORE SO WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA SOMETIME
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...KEPT POP BETWEEN
15 TO 30 PERCENT...HIGHEST FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY BECAUSE
OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...UNLESS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD WHERE
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WIND...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KCDR AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY
AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KRWL. THE COLD WILL STEADILY
MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITY
INCREASES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR TOMORROW. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GARMON/SML










000
FXUS65 KCYS 181733
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

CLOUD COVER BECOMING THICKER A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH THE
THICKER CLOUDS...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF A FEW SITES BUT WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT...PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...BUT GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL
THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES IN THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO
WITH A 1017MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP SO FAR...WHICH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM.
SEEING 1 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS 700MB WINDS PICK UP TO
40KTS...SO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A RATHER WINDY DAY. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO CLIMB TO +8C. STILL THINK MOS GUIDANCE IS LOW ON
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH THESE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ADDED
3-4 DEGREES TO THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. LOOKING AT PROBABLY THE
WARMEST DAY THIS SEASON SO FAR WITH 80S COMMON IN THE PANHANDLE
AND 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

ONE FINAL ITEM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WOULD BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH THE FRONT. NAM LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3C LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND EVEN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE UP NEAR CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING EASTERLY. GFS SHOWING SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THESE EASTERLY WINDS WITH 850MB RH
AROUND 95 PERCENT JUST EAST OF OUR CWFA. WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE
THIS LOW LEVEL FINALLY ENDS UP PULLING...WOULD THINK IT WOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THOSE TYPE OF WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS HITTING OUR WESTERN ZONES PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DECENT RAINFALL. A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING. ALL THREE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCATIONS. THE NAM MOST BULLISH ON QPF WITH CLOSE TO 4/10THS
QPF NEAR LARAMIE. UPPED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH THIS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AND THUS WARMEST TEMPS
LAGGING JUST WEST OF THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW ADVECTING LLVL MOISTURE UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE A
TSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
RESULT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE INTO CALI MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC STORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPING STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTORMS IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES...AS THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING LESS ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL
MOISTURE. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE BIGGER ISSUE LOOKING TO BE WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EC
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND NIGHTTIME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THESE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KCDR AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY
AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KRWL. THE COLD WILL STEADILY
MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
THROUGH MONTANA. WINDS REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARDS NOON TIME
TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 80S IN THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TODAY. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING DOWN SOME. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB











000
FXUS65 KCYS 181636
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1036 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

CLOUD COVER BECOMING THICKER A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH THE
THICKER CLOUDS...SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF A FEW SITES BUT WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT...PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD BE
CLOSE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...BUT GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL
THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES IN THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO
WITH A 1017MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP SO FAR...WHICH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM.
SEEING 1 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS 700MB WINDS PICK UP TO
40KTS...SO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A RATHER WINDY DAY. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO CLIMB TO +8C. STILL THINK MOS GUIDANCE IS LOW ON
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH THESE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ADDED
3-4 DEGREES TO THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. LOOKING AT PROBABLY THE
WARMEST DAY THIS SEASON SO FAR WITH 80S COMMON IN THE PANHANDLE
AND 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

ONE FINAL ITEM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WOULD BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH THE FRONT. NAM LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3C LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND EVEN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE UP NEAR CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING EASTERLY. GFS SHOWING SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THESE EASTERLY WINDS WITH 850MB RH
AROUND 95 PERCENT JUST EAST OF OUR CWFA. WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE
THIS LOW LEVEL FINALLY ENDS UP PULLING...WOULD THINK IT WOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THOSE TYPE OF WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MODELS HITTING OUR WESTERN ZONES PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DECENT RAINFALL. A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING. ALL THREE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCATIONS. THE NAM MOST BULLISH ON QPF WITH CLOSE TO 4/10THS
QPF NEAR LARAMIE. UPPED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH THIS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AND THUS WARMEST TEMPS
LAGGING JUST WEST OF THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW ADVECTING LLVL MOISTURE UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE A
TSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
RESULT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE INTO CALI MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC STORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPING STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTORMS IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES...AS THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING LESS ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL
MOISTURE. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE BIGGER ISSUE LOOKING TO BE WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EC
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND NIGHTTIME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THESE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KCDR AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AT KRWL. THE COLD WILL STEADILY MOVE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN 05 AND 10Z TONIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
THROUGH MONTANA. WINDS REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARDS NOON TIME
TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 80S IN THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TODAY. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING DOWN SOME. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 181158
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
558 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO
WITH A 1017MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP SO FAR...WHICH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM.
SEEING 1 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS 700MB WINDS PICK UP TO
40KTS...SO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A RATHER WINDY DAY. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO CLIMB TO +8C. STILL THINK MOS GUIDANCE IS LOW ON
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH THESE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ADDED
3-4 DEGREES TO THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. LOOKING AT PROBABLY THE
WARMEST DAY THIS SEASON SO FAR WITH 80S COMMON IN THE PANHANDLE
AND 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

ONE FINAL ITEM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WOULD BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH THE FRONT. NAM LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3C LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND EVEN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE UP NEAR CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING EASTERLY. GFS SHOWING SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THESE EASTERLY WINDS WITH 850MB RH
AROUND 95 PERCENT JUST EAST OF OUR CWFA. WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE
THIS LOW LEVEL FINALLY ENDS UP PULLING...WOULD THINK IT WOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THOSE TYPE OF WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MODELS HITTING OUR WESTERN ZONES PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DECENT RAINFALL. A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING. ALL THREE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCATIONS. THE NAM MOST BULLISH ON QPF WITH CLOSE TO 4/10THS
QPF NEAR LARAMIE. UPPED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH THIS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AND THUS WARMEST TEMPS
LAGGING JUST WEST OF THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW ADVECTING LLVL MOISTURE UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE A
TSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
RESULT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE INTO CALI MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC STORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPING STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTORMS IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES...AS THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING LESS ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL
MOISTURE. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE BIGGER ISSUE LOOKING TO BE WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EC
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND NIGHTTIME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THESE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR TSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KCDR AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AT KRWL. THE COLD WILL STEADILY MOVE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN 05 AND 10Z TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
THROUGH MONTANA. WINDS REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARDS NOON TIME
TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 80S IN THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TODAY. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING DOWN SOME. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 180949
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO
WITH A 1017MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP SO FAR...WHICH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM.
SEEING 1 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS 700MB WINDS PICK UP TO
40KTS...SO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A RATHER WINDY DAY. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO CLIMB TO +8C. STILL THINK MOS GUIDANCE IS LOW ON
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH THESE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. ADDED
3-4 DEGREES TO THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. LOOKING AT PROBABLY THE
WARMEST DAY THIS SEASON SO FAR WITH 80S COMMON IN THE PANHANDLE
AND 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

ONE FINAL ITEM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WOULD BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH THE FRONT. NAM LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3C LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND EVEN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE UP NEAR CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING EASTERLY. GFS SHOWING SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THESE EASTERLY WINDS WITH 850MB RH
AROUND 95 PERCENT JUST EAST OF OUR CWFA. WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE
THIS LOW LEVEL FINALLY ENDS UP PULLING...WOULD THINK IT WOULD MAKE
IT INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH THOSE TYPE OF WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MODELS HITTING OUR WESTERN ZONES PRETTY GOOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DECENT RAINFALL. A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING. ALL THREE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCATIONS. THE NAM MOST BULLISH ON QPF WITH CLOSE TO 4/10THS
QPF NEAR LARAMIE. UPPED POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH THIS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AND THUS WARMEST TEMPS
LAGGING JUST WEST OF THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW ADVECTING LLVL MOISTURE UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE A
TSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
RESULT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE INTO CALI MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC STORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPING STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTORMS IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES...AS THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING LESS ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL
MOISTURE. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE BIGGER ISSUE LOOKING TO BE WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EC
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND NIGHTTIME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THESE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

OVERNIGHT...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS INTO
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT IN THE
PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP WHICH SUGGESTS WE ADVERTISE WINDS 15G30KT POSSIBLE AT
A FEW OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE EAST NOT SHELTERED BY TERRAIN.
VFR CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WYOMING TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
THROUGH MONTANA. WINDS REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARDS NOON TIME
TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 80S IN THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TODAY. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING DOWN SOME. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS65 KCYS 180329
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
929 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

INHERITED GRIDS IN DECENT SHAPE. FLAT RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD
BY DAWN AND WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING...WINDS...WILL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH...WILL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOP AS SEEN
ON THE 850 MB HEIGHT AND ISOTACH PLOT WITH A 30 TO 40 KNOT JETLET
PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM
LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 3 AM...ESPECIALLY AT CHADRON AND
ALLIANCE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET OFTEN MAKES AN APPEARANCE AT
NIGHT DURING THE SPRINGTIME. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES
...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MAINTAINING A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST IS PRODUCING A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SE WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE USUALLY WINDIER SPOTS
SUCH AS ARLINGTON AND RAWLINS GETTING PERIODIC GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS PROJECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON FRIDAY TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WE CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME SMALL
POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THAT.  OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH ADVERTISE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA) TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.  AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES.  WE CONTINUED THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
BRINGING POPS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH LOWER POPS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WHERE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE STABLE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SAT EVENING
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER SYSTEM PASSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY IMPULSE ON SUNDAY MAY INTERACT WITH A
BIT OF INSTABILITY TO SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAK STORMS AGAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SIMILAR PATTERN FOR MONDAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY MOVING UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AIDING IN A BIT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MILD
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT WEDS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY SLOTTING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INHIBIT PCPN OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDS
BUT RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY. COOLER THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT PASSES ACROSS LATE WEDS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

OVERNIGHT...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS INTO
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT IN THE
PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP WHICH SUGGESTS WE ADVERTISE WINDS 15G30KT POSSIBLE AT
A FEW OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE EAST NOT SHELTERED BY TERRAIN.
VFR CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WYOMING TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT THEIR WARMEST FOR THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN DISTRICTS BUT RHS WILL BE THE LOWEST
OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS FUELS NOT
READY OUT WEST AND OVER EASTERN AREAS WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER. STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LATE FRIDAY WITH MILDER CONDITIONS AND
WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...GARMON/TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 172031
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
231 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MAINTAINING A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST IS PRODUCING A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SE WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE USUALLY WINDIER SPOTS
SUCH AS ARLINGTON AND RAWLINS GETTING PERIODIC GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS PROJECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON FRIDAY TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WE CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME SMALL
POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THAT.  OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH ADVERTISE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA) TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.  AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES.  WE CONTINUED THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
BRINGING POPS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH LOWER POPS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WHERE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE STABLE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SAT EVENING
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER SYSTEM PASSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY IMPULSE ON SUNDAY MAY INTERACT WITH A
BIT OF INSTABILITY TO SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAK STORMS AGAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SIMILAR PATTERN FOR MONDAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY MOVING UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AIDING IN A BIT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MILD
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT WEDS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY SLOTTING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INHIBIT PCPN OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDS
BUT RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY. COOLER THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT PASSES ACROSS LATE WEDS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

LAST PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING SHORTLY BEFORE 3 PM OVER
THE CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY AREAS.  OVERNIGHT...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS IN SE WYOMING AND ALONG THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP WHICH SUGGESTS WE
ADVERTISE WINDS 15G30KT POSSIBLE AT A FEW OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE
EAST NOT SHELTERED BY TERRAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT THEIR WARMEST FOR THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN DISTRICTS BUT RHS WILL BE THE LOWEST
OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS FUELS NOT
READY OUT WEST AND OVER EASTERN AREAS WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER. STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LATE FRIDAY WITH MILDER CONDITIONS AND
WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARMON/TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GARMON/TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 172030
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MAINTAINING A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST IS PRODUCING A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SE WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE USUALLY WINDIER SPOTS
SUCH AS ARLINGTON AND RAWLINS GETTING PERIODIC GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS PROJECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON FRIDAY TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WE CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME SMALL
POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THAT.  OTHERWISE WE CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH ADVERTISE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA) TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.  AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES.  WE CONTINUED THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
BRINGING POPS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH LOWER POPS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WHERE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE STABLE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SAT EVENING
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER SYSTEM PASSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY IMPULSE ON SUNDAY MAY INTERACT WITH A
BIT OF INSTABILITY TO SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAK STORMS AGAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SIMILAR PATTERN FOR MONDAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY MOVING UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AIDING IN A BIT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MILD
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT WEDS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY SLOTTING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INHIBIT PCPN OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDS
BUT RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY. COOLER THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT PASSES ACROSS LATE WEDS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

LAST PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING SHORTLY BEFORE 3 PM OVER
THE CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY AREAS.  OVERNIGHT...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS IN SE WYOMING AND ALONG THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP WHICH SUGGESTS WE
ADVERTISE WINDS 15G30KT POSSIBLE AT A FEW OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE
EAST NOT SHELTERED BY TERRAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT THEIR WARMEST FOR THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN DISTRICTS BUT RHS WILL BE THE LOWEST
OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS FUELS NOT
READY OUT WEST AND OVER EASTERN AREAS WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER. STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LATE FRIDAY WITH MILDER CONDITIONS AND
WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARMON/TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GARMON/TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 171746 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1146 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...ISSUED A MINOR UPDATE TO SHORT TERM FORECAST EARLIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LAST PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MIXING OUT OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY 1PM. ONLY
OTHER THING WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT RIGHT NOW WIND SPEEDS WOULD APPEAR TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NEBRASKA. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  02/GARMON

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MID DAY AVIATION UPDATE PACKAGE WE KEPT MVFR
CEILINGS GOING UNTIL 1-2 PM MDT TODAY OVER NEBRASKA WITH VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WYOMING TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACT WE SEE SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
ESPECIALLY AT OUR NEBRASKA AIRPORTS. THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT
THE NAM MODELS SHOW A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TONIGHT...AND WE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF
BRINGING IN GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT IN THE EAST.  02/GARMON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF SNOW FROM GLENDO TO
BRIDGEPORT THIS MORNING THAT LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THE 300K PRESSURE SURFACE ON THE GFS. BAND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE
PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
IS JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

GOING TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
+4C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE TODAY WITH 50S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS FORECASTING
40KTS OUT OVER ALBANY COUNTY FRIDAY WITH A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. GOING TO BE WINDY FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL REALLY
BOOST TEMPERATURES AS WELL. DID GO HIGHER ON FRIDAY HIGHS WITH 80S
POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE. DO BELIEVE GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE LOW
FOR CHEYENNE...SO ADJUSTED UP SEVERAL DEGREES.

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3C FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST OF CHEYENNE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WANES. THE SFC LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL BRING
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER IN THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC TSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER WAA AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. FOR MONDAY...A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH CONTINUED WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN ON SUNDAY...SO TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS OVERALL BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN TRACK OF THIS WAVE LOOKING
TO BE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN
GENERAL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WELL TO THE WEST WITH MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR MOVING OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MONTANA WITH THE
LEESIDE TROUGH DEEPENING AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW AND WILL BE OUT OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...LIKELY CONVERGING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITHIN THE STRONGEST LLVL CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT
AGAIN MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD STORMS AT BAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS
THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO OROGRAPHICS
AND PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST
PART FURTHER EAST.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
14Z FOR SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KTS WILL THE DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND ALSO NEAR KRWL. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY WITH INCREASING
WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WINDS BECOME STRONG FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02/GARMON TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...02/GARMON TJT








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