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000
FXUS65 KCYS 021750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM FOLLOWING SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. BY THIS AFTERNOON WEST WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 40 TO 50
MPH IN WESTERN AREAS. NOT SO WINDY IN THE EAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
AND FREE ATMOSPHERE WINDS WILL NOT COUPLE SO EASILY. REGARDLESS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS ZERO ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY NEAR SIDNEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR SIDNEY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST SO KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND CHEYENNE...EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AT
SIDNEY LATE TONIGHT ARE AROUND 9 DEG/KM WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO IS WONT TAKE MUCH TO PERTURB THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PRODUCE A STORM OR TWO. MODELS ARE BEING STINGY PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION SO FOR NOW LEFT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT LATER TODAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY
AND WINDY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 25 FOR MOST OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND 80S FARTHER WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH UPSLOPE EAST WINDS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT
REACH 70 FOR PLACES LIKE CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NORTHERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THE CWA
FRIDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLY TRICKLING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS THOUGH
IT WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ACROSS IN THE FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR SETUP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDELY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER AND CLOSE TO THE SE WY MTNS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ROUND ITS BASE AND CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MILD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN WARMING A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
700MB TEMPS RISE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...WITH 20 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
FOR WYOMING AND 15 TO 20 KTS AT THE NEBRASKA AIRPORTS. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR KSNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR KCDR
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRY AND WINDY WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS CARBON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE SO STRONG FARTHER EAST BUT STILL LOOKING
AT GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AROUND SIDNEY NEBRASKA WHERE THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
90S INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS OVER MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT SO WINDY IN THE PANHANDLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306-309-310.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     309.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML








000
FXUS65 KCYS 021750
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM FOLLOWING SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. BY THIS AFTERNOON WEST WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 40 TO 50
MPH IN WESTERN AREAS. NOT SO WINDY IN THE EAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
AND FREE ATMOSPHERE WINDS WILL NOT COUPLE SO EASILY. REGARDLESS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS ZERO ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY NEAR SIDNEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR SIDNEY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST SO KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND CHEYENNE...EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AT
SIDNEY LATE TONIGHT ARE AROUND 9 DEG/KM WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO IS WONT TAKE MUCH TO PERTURB THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PRODUCE A STORM OR TWO. MODELS ARE BEING STINGY PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION SO FOR NOW LEFT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT LATER TODAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY
AND WINDY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 25 FOR MOST OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND 80S FARTHER WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH UPSLOPE EAST WINDS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT
REACH 70 FOR PLACES LIKE CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NORTHERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THE CWA
FRIDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLY TRICKLING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS THOUGH
IT WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ACROSS IN THE FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR SETUP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDELY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER AND CLOSE TO THE SE WY MTNS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ROUND ITS BASE AND CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MILD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN WARMING A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
700MB TEMPS RISE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...WITH 20 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
FOR WYOMING AND 15 TO 20 KTS AT THE NEBRASKA AIRPORTS. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR KSNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR KCDR
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRY AND WINDY WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS CARBON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE SO STRONG FARTHER EAST BUT STILL LOOKING
AT GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AROUND SIDNEY NEBRASKA WHERE THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
90S INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS OVER MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT SO WINDY IN THE PANHANDLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306-309-310.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     309.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML







000
FXUS65 KCYS 020921
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
321 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM FOLLOWING SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. BY THIS AFTERNOON WEST WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 40 TO 50
MPH IN WESTERN AREAS. NOT SO WINDY IN THE EAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
AND FREE ATMOSPHERE WINDS WILL NOT COUPLE SO EASILY. REGARDLESS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS ZERO ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY NEAR SIDNEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR SIDNEY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST SO KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND CHEYENNE...EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AT
SIDNEY LATE TONIGHT ARE AROUND 9 DEG/KM WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO IS WONT TAKE MUCH TO PERTURB THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PRODUCE A STORM OR TWO. MODELS ARE BEING STINGY PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION SO FOR NOW LEFT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT LATER TODAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY
AND WINDY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 25 FOR MOST OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND 80S FARTHER WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH UPSLOPE EAST WINDS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT
REACH 70 FOR PLACES LIKE CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NORTHERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THE CWA
FRIDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLY TRICKLING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS THOUGH
IT WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ACROSS IN THE FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR SETUP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDELY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER AND CLOSE TO THE SE WY MTNS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ROUND ITS BASE AND CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MILD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN WARMING A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
700MB TEMPS RISE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH WEDS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRY AND WINDY WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS CARBON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE SO STRONG FARTHER EAST BUT STILL LOOKING
AT GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AROUND SIDNEY NEBRASKA WHERE THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
90S INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS OVER MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT SO WINDY IN THE PANHANDLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-309.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306-309-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 020921
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
321 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM FOLLOWING SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. BY THIS AFTERNOON WEST WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 40 TO 50
MPH IN WESTERN AREAS. NOT SO WINDY IN THE EAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER
AND FREE ATMOSPHERE WINDS WILL NOT COUPLE SO EASILY. REGARDLESS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS ZERO ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY NEAR SIDNEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR SIDNEY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST SO KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND CHEYENNE...EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AT
SIDNEY LATE TONIGHT ARE AROUND 9 DEG/KM WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO IS WONT TAKE MUCH TO PERTURB THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PRODUCE A STORM OR TWO. MODELS ARE BEING STINGY PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION SO FOR NOW LEFT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT LATER TODAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY
AND WINDY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 25 FOR MOST OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND 80S FARTHER WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH UPSLOPE EAST WINDS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT
REACH 70 FOR PLACES LIKE CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NORTHERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THE CWA
FRIDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLY TRICKLING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS THOUGH
IT WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ACROSS IN THE FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR SETUP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDELY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER AND CLOSE TO THE SE WY MTNS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ROUND ITS BASE AND CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MILD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN WARMING A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
700MB TEMPS RISE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH WEDS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRY AND WINDY WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS CARBON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE SO STRONG FARTHER EAST BUT STILL LOOKING
AT GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AROUND SIDNEY NEBRASKA WHERE THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
90S INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS OVER MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT NOT SO WINDY IN THE PANHANDLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-309.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-306-309-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML






000
FXUS65 KCYS 020446
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS
OTHER THAN TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND PINE RIDGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CWA. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG HORNS ARE NOW RACING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS MOVING OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE WYO/NEB PLAINS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOT QUITE
BEEN WORKED OVER YET. SO COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS FROM MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE LOW RIVER VALLEYS IN THE PANHANDLE SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AS THE JET LIFTS NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY...AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN TRANSITIONING TO
FIRE WEATHER. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 301...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
302...304...AND 309. AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...LEFT 303 AND 308 OUT
OF THE WARNING AS FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NON-SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. FURTHER EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DELAYED TO THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND DRY HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL PROGGED FOR THURS MORNING WITH A 15-20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS ON THURS COMPARED TO WED.  EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP BY THURS NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLN OF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON QPF FOR THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.  SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT SO LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF BEST
FORCING AND QPF...IT IS BEST TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR FRI-SAT...ONLY A
FEW TENTHS.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
OVER SOUTHEAST WY...SO BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THERE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY SUN AND WITH A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...SLIGHT WARMING WITH ENSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 KNOTS
ACROSS SE WYOMING TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
PANHANDLE SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AT SE WY
AIRFIELDS AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 22-32 KNOTS. THESE
WILL SUBSIDE BETWEEN 01-02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A RESULT...WITH
FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN ZONES
301...302...304...AND 309. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE FIRE WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES STARTING NOON ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY FOR THESE SAME AREAS....AND COULD
ALSO EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ301-302-
     304-309.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM






000
FXUS65 KCYS 020446
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS
OTHER THAN TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND PINE RIDGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CWA. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG HORNS ARE NOW RACING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS MOVING OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE WYO/NEB PLAINS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOT QUITE
BEEN WORKED OVER YET. SO COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS FROM MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE LOW RIVER VALLEYS IN THE PANHANDLE SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AS THE JET LIFTS NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY...AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN TRANSITIONING TO
FIRE WEATHER. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 301...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
302...304...AND 309. AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...LEFT 303 AND 308 OUT
OF THE WARNING AS FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NON-SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. FURTHER EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DELAYED TO THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND DRY HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL PROGGED FOR THURS MORNING WITH A 15-20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS ON THURS COMPARED TO WED.  EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP BY THURS NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLN OF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON QPF FOR THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.  SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT SO LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF BEST
FORCING AND QPF...IT IS BEST TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR FRI-SAT...ONLY A
FEW TENTHS.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
OVER SOUTHEAST WY...SO BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THERE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY SUN AND WITH A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...SLIGHT WARMING WITH ENSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 KNOTS
ACROSS SE WYOMING TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
PANHANDLE SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AT SE WY
AIRFIELDS AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 22-32 KNOTS. THESE
WILL SUBSIDE BETWEEN 01-02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A RESULT...WITH
FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN ZONES
301...302...304...AND 309. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE FIRE WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES STARTING NOON ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY FOR THESE SAME AREAS....AND COULD
ALSO EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ301-302-
     304-309.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 020046
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
646 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS
OTHER THAN TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND PINE RIDGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CWA. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG HORNS ARE NOW RACING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS MOVING OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE WYO/NEB PLAINS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOT QUITE
BEEN WORKED OVER YET. SO COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS FROM MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE LOW RIVER VALLEYS IN THE PANHANDLE SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AS THE JET LIFTS NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY...AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN TRANSITIONING TO
FIRE WEATHER. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 301...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
302...304...AND 309. AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...LEFT 303 AND 308 OUT
OF THE WARNING AS FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NON-SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. FURTHER EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DELAYED TO THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND DRY HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL PROGGED FOR THURS MORNING WITH A 15-20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS ON THURS COMPARED TO WED.  EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP BY THURS NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLN OF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON QPF FOR THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.  SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT SO LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF BEST
FORCING AND QPF...IT IS BEST TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR FRI-SAT...ONLY A
FEW TENTHS.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
OVER SOUTHEAST WY...SO BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THERE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY SUN AND WITH A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...SLIGHT WARMING WITH ENSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 632 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER AROUND MAINLY WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE. MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK THUS FAR AND
RECENT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGH RETURNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A RESULT...WITH
FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN ZONES
301...302...304...AND 309. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE FIRE WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES STARTING NOON ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY FOR THESE SAME AREAS....AND COULD
ALSO EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ301-302-
     304-309.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 020046
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
646 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS
OTHER THAN TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND PINE RIDGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CWA. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG HORNS ARE NOW RACING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS MOVING OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE WYO/NEB PLAINS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOT QUITE
BEEN WORKED OVER YET. SO COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS FROM MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE LOW RIVER VALLEYS IN THE PANHANDLE SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AS THE JET LIFTS NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY...AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN TRANSITIONING TO
FIRE WEATHER. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 301...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
302...304...AND 309. AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...LEFT 303 AND 308 OUT
OF THE WARNING AS FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NON-SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. FURTHER EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DELAYED TO THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND DRY HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL PROGGED FOR THURS MORNING WITH A 15-20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS ON THURS COMPARED TO WED.  EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP BY THURS NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLN OF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON QPF FOR THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.  SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT SO LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF BEST
FORCING AND QPF...IT IS BEST TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR FRI-SAT...ONLY A
FEW TENTHS.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
OVER SOUTHEAST WY...SO BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THERE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY SUN AND WITH A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...SLIGHT WARMING WITH ENSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 632 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER AROUND MAINLY WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE. MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK THUS FAR AND
RECENT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGH RETURNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A RESULT...WITH
FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN ZONES
301...302...304...AND 309. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE FIRE WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES STARTING NOON ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY FOR THESE SAME AREAS....AND COULD
ALSO EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ301-302-
     304-309.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 012222
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS
OTHER THAN TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND PINE RIDGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CWA. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG HORNS ARE NOW RACING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS MOVING OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE WYO/NEB PLAINS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOT QUITE
BEEN WORKED OVER YET. SO COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS FROM MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE LOW RIVER VALLEYS IN THE PANHANDLE SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AS THE JET LIFTS NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY...AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN TRANSITIONING TO
FIRE WEATHER. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 301...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
302...304...AND 309. AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...LEFT 303 AND 308 OUT
OF THE WARNING AS FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NON-SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. FURTHER EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DELAYED TO THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND DRY HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL PROGGED FOR THURS MORNING WITH A 15-20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS ON THURS COMPARED TO WED.  EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP BY THURS NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLN OF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON QPF FOR THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.  SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT SO LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF BEST
FORCING AND QPF...IT IS BEST TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR FRI-SAT...ONLY A
FEW TENTHS.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
OVER SOUTHEAST WY...SO BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THERE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY SUN AND WITH A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...SLIGHT WARMING WITH ENSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF AT CDR AND AIA. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS COMMON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A RESULT...WITH
FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN ZONES
301...302...304...AND 309. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE FIRE WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES STARTING NOON ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY FOR THESE SAME AREAS....AND COULD
ALSO EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ301-302-
     304-309.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 012222
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 12HRS
OTHER THAN TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND PINE RIDGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CWA. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG HORNS ARE NOW RACING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA...WITH OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS MOVING OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE WYO/NEB PLAINS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS NOT QUITE
BEEN WORKED OVER YET. SO COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS FROM MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE LOW RIVER VALLEYS IN THE PANHANDLE SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA AS THE JET LIFTS NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY...AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN TRANSITIONING TO
FIRE WEATHER. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 301...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
302...304...AND 309. AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...LEFT 303 AND 308 OUT
OF THE WARNING AS FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NON-SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. FURTHER EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP
MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DELAYED TO THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND DRY HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING QUITE POSSIBLE. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL PROGGED FOR THURS MORNING WITH A 15-20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS ON THURS COMPARED TO WED.  EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP BY THURS NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLN OF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON QPF FOR THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.  SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT SO LLVL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF BEST
FORCING AND QPF...IT IS BEST TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR FRI AND SAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR FRI-SAT...ONLY A
FEW TENTHS.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
OVER SOUTHEAST WY...SO BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THERE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS BY SUN AND WITH A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...SLIGHT WARMING WITH ENSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF AT CDR AND AIA. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS COMMON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A RESULT...WITH
FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN ZONES
301...302...304...AND 309. THEREFORE...UPGRADED THE FIRE WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES STARTING NOON ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY FOR THESE SAME AREAS....AND COULD
ALSO EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ301-302-
     304-309.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 011829
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1229 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

BUMPED UP PRECIP CHANCES ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE NOON HOUR
IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET. FOCUSED THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG TWO
BOUNDARIES. ONE EXTENDS FROM CONVERSE COUNTY TO POINTS SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE...WITH THE SECOND AND MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARY
(PERHAPS A WEAK COLD FRONT) ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DOWNSLOPE
AIRMASS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP T-STORM
COVERAGE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
MLCAPES PEAKING TO BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30
KTS OR MORE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THESE AREAS. INCLUDED MENTION FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ENVIRONMENT...WHICH AGAIN IS MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES...AND MOST OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A STORM OR TWO OVER
THE PINE RIDGE BECOMES MARGINALLY SEVERE AS THIS AREA IS WITHIN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY 02Z...WITH PERHAPS A
SCT STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING BEHIND THE NORTHERN SFC COLD FRONT AS
IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK IT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD...AND SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE DEEPER WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE. AS THE WAVE
SLIDES EAST AND DIPS SOUTH...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIP
INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO GENERALLY ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY
BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY EAST TO WINDY WEST.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH
VERY WARM AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE 80S WEST
WITH LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE AS STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL QUITE BREEZY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE COUNTRY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS THE TROF
NEARS AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA. CONTINUED MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS DIVERGE ON
HANDLING OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH THE EC SUPPRESSING IT
SOUTHWARD OF THE CWA WITH A RATHER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS AT LEAST SOME OF IT ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOST MODELS ARE MORE FAVORING TOWARDS THE EC AND WILL LEAN
IN THAT DIRECTION BUT NOT DRY THINGS OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL ABOUT
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF AT CDR AND AIA. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS COMMON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE NEXT DECENT SHOT
AT WETTING RAIN NOT UNTIL SATURDAY. MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY...BUT CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-303-304-308-309.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML








000
FXUS65 KCYS 011052
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
452 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE. AS THE WAVE
SLIDES EAST AND DIPS SOUTH...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIP
INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO GENERALLY ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY
BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY EAST TO WINDY WEST.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH
VERY WARM AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE 80S WEST
WITH LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE AS STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL QUITE BREEZY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE COUNTRY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS THE TROF
NEARS AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA. CONTINUED MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS DIVERGE ON
HANDLING OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH THE EC SUPPRESSING IT
SOUTHWARD OF THE CWA WITH A RATHER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS AT LEAST SOME OF IT ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOST MODELS ARE MORE FAVORING TOWARDS THE EC AND WILL LEAN
IN THAT DIRECTION BUT NOT DRY THINGS OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL ABOUT
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE NEXT DECENT SHOT
AT WETTING RAIN NOT UNTIL SATURDAY. MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY...BUT CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-303-304-308-309.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML







000
FXUS65 KCYS 010444
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1044 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVE. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR IS CLEAR OVER OUR ZONES AS OF 02Z AND WOULD EXPECT
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NE.
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z AS SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDING MOTION
ALOFT. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO SHOW MORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND
THEN INCREASING AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE MON WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100
KT JET. AS OF 3 PM...THE SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM SOUTHEAST NIOBRARA COUNTY...THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY...AND
WESTWARD THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY AND IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
SPIKING ABOVE 20KFT WITH THE HELP OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 30 TO 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TREK EAST TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS. WEAKER CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLIER...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A BROADER
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
LIKELY STUNTED THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION WHILE FORCING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH TO THE SFC. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND FOR WEAK BUT GUSTY SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN PLACE HERE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA AS 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM HERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS
MODELS DEVELOP ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL
BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN TAKE AHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TUESDAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH AT THE SFC.  700MB TEMPS
WILL RISE TO 16C WITH AROUND 30C AT 850MB.  HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WED TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA ON THURS.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURS MORNING WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING.  IT
IS GENERALLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  BY THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI THIS COULD CHANGE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH
IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE ECMWF HAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THURS
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.  LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND SAT.  INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH FRI...THEN IMPROVES SOME BY SAT (CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
500-750 J/KG).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP AFTER 16Z FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS.
OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER IMAPCTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 010444
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1044 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVE. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR IS CLEAR OVER OUR ZONES AS OF 02Z AND WOULD EXPECT
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NE.
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z AS SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDING MOTION
ALOFT. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO SHOW MORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND
THEN INCREASING AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE MON WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100
KT JET. AS OF 3 PM...THE SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM SOUTHEAST NIOBRARA COUNTY...THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY...AND
WESTWARD THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY AND IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
SPIKING ABOVE 20KFT WITH THE HELP OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 30 TO 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TREK EAST TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS. WEAKER CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLIER...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A BROADER
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
LIKELY STUNTED THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION WHILE FORCING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH TO THE SFC. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND FOR WEAK BUT GUSTY SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN PLACE HERE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA AS 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM HERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS
MODELS DEVELOP ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL
BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN TAKE AHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TUESDAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH AT THE SFC.  700MB TEMPS
WILL RISE TO 16C WITH AROUND 30C AT 850MB.  HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WED TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA ON THURS.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURS MORNING WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING.  IT
IS GENERALLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  BY THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI THIS COULD CHANGE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH
IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE ECMWF HAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THURS
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.  LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND SAT.  INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH FRI...THEN IMPROVES SOME BY SAT (CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
500-750 J/KG).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP AFTER 16Z FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS.
OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER IMAPCTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM









000
FXUS65 KCYS 010228
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
828 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVE. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR IS CLEAR OVER OUR ZONES AS OF 02Z AND WOULD EXPECT
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NE.
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z AS SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDING MOTION
ALOFT. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS TO SHOW MORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND
THEN INCREASING AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE MON WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100
KT JET. AS OF 3 PM...THE SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM SOUTHEAST NIOBRARA COUNTY...THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY...AND
WESTWARD THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY AND IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
SPIKING ABOVE 20KFT WITH THE HELP OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 30 TO 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TREK EAST TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS. WEAKER CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLIER...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A BROADER
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
LIKELY STUNTED THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION WHILE FORCING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH TO THE SFC. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND FOR WEAK BUT GUSTY SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN PLACE HERE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA AS 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM HERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS
MODELS DEVELOP ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL
BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN TAKE AHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TUESDAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH AT THE SFC.  700MB TEMPS
WILL RISE TO 16C WITH AROUND 30C AT 850MB.  HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WED TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA ON THURS.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURS MORNING WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING.  IT
IS GENERALLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  BY THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI THIS COULD CHANGE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH
IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE ECMWF HAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THURS
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.  LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND SAT.  INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH FRI...THEN IMPROVES SOME BY SAT (CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
500-750 J/KG).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT INO MONDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION ACROSS
NIOBRARA COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY SUNSET. WESTERLY WINS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
GUST INTO THE 20KT RANGE ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 312307
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
507 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100
KT JET. AS OF 3 PM...THE SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM SOUTHEAST NIOBRARA COUNTY...THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY...AND
WESTWARD THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY AND IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
SPIKING ABOVE 20KFT WITH THE HELP OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 30 TO 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TREK EAST TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS. WEAKER CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLIER...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A BROADER
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
LIKELY STUNTED THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION WHILE FORCING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH TO THE SFC. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND FOR WEAK BUT GUSTY SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN PLACE HERE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA AS 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM HERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS
MODELS DEVELOP ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL
BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN TAKE AHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TUESDAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH AT THE SFC.  700MB TEMPS
WILL RISE TO 16C WITH AROUND 30C AT 850MB.  HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WED TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA ON THURS.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURS MORNING WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING.  IT
IS GENERALLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  BY THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI THIS COULD CHANGE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH
IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE ECMWF HAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THURS
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.  LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND SAT.  INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH FRI...THEN IMPROVES SOME BY SAT (CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
500-750 J/KG).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT INO MONDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION ACROSS
NIOBRARA COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY SUNSET. WESTERLY WINS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
GUST INTO THE 20KT RANGE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 312307
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
507 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100
KT JET. AS OF 3 PM...THE SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM SOUTHEAST NIOBRARA COUNTY...THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY...AND
WESTWARD THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY AND IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
SPIKING ABOVE 20KFT WITH THE HELP OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 30 TO 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TREK EAST TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS. WEAKER CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLIER...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A BROADER
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
LIKELY STUNTED THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION WHILE FORCING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH TO THE SFC. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND FOR WEAK BUT GUSTY SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN PLACE HERE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA AS 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM HERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS
MODELS DEVELOP ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL
BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN TAKE AHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TUESDAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH AT THE SFC.  700MB TEMPS
WILL RISE TO 16C WITH AROUND 30C AT 850MB.  HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WED TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA ON THURS.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURS MORNING WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING.  IT
IS GENERALLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  BY THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI THIS COULD CHANGE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH
IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE ECMWF HAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THURS
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.  LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND SAT.  INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH FRI...THEN IMPROVES SOME BY SAT (CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
500-750 J/KG).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT INO MONDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION ACROSS
NIOBRARA COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY SUNSET. WESTERLY WINS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
GUST INTO THE 20KT RANGE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 312145
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100
KT JET. AS OF 3 PM...THE SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM SOUTHEAST NIOBRARA COUNTY...THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY...AND
WESTWARD THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY AND IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
SPIKING ABOVE 20KFT WITH THE HELP OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 30 TO 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TREK EAST TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS. WEAKER CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLIER...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A BROADER
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
LIKELY STUNTED THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION WHILE FORCING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH TO THE SFC. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND FOR WEAK BUT GUSTY SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN PLACE HERE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA AS 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM HERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS
MODELS DEVELOP ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL
BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN TAKE AHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TUESDAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH AT THE SFC.  700MB TEMPS
WILL RISE TO 16C WITH AROUND 30C AT 850MB.  HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WED TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA ON THURS.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURS MORNING WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING.  IT
IS GENERALLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  BY THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI THIS COULD CHANGE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH
IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE ECMWF HAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THURS
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.  LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND SAT.  INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH FRI...THEN IMPROVES SOME BY SAT (CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
500-750 J/KG).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH 00Z OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 312145
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100
KT JET. AS OF 3 PM...THE SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM SOUTHEAST NIOBRARA COUNTY...THROUGH CONVERSE COUNTY...AND
WESTWARD THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY AND IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS
SPIKING ABOVE 20KFT WITH THE HELP OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 30 TO 40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR IS ANALYZED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER AS THEY TREK EAST TOWARD THE
SANDHILLS. WEAKER CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLIER...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS WELL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A BROADER
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
LIKELY STUNTED THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION WHILE FORCING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH TO THE SFC. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND FOR WEAK BUT GUSTY SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE REMAIN IN PLACE HERE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. THUS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING WITH THE UPPER WAVE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA AS 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM HERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS
MODELS DEVELOP ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL
BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN TAKE AHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TUESDAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH AT THE SFC.  700MB TEMPS
WILL RISE TO 16C WITH AROUND 30C AT 850MB.  HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AS MIN RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
WED TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA ON THURS.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURS MORNING WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING.  IT
IS GENERALLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  BY THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI THIS COULD CHANGE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH
IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE ECMWF HAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THURS
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO.  LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SEEMS LIKE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND SAT.  INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH FRI...THEN IMPROVES SOME BY SAT (CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
500-750 J/KG).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH 00Z OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 311756
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. 250 MB JET STREAM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER 100 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS JUST STARTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY TODAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...RESULTING IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SINCE THE FRONT WILL
STALL LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN THOUGH
THE RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ACTIVE. WITH A STRONG JET
OVERHEAD...BELIEVE MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 30 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY COME TO AND END EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH PW/S LOWERING BELOW ONE HALF
INCH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF DRY AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S INTO THE PANHANDLE. BY
THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIMITS
DEEPER MIXING.

FORECAST MUCH MORE TRICKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. GFS DEVELOPS A SLOW MOVING CLOSE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND THEN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BY
SATURDAY. IN OTHER WORDS THE ECMWF IS NOT ONLY COOLER BUT WOULD ALSO
SUGGESTS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER MODEL BUT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTENCE GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO LAST WINTER FAVORS NORTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH 00Z OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN CONCERN OF NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 311756
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. 250 MB JET STREAM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER 100 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS JUST STARTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY TODAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...RESULTING IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SINCE THE FRONT WILL
STALL LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN THOUGH
THE RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ACTIVE. WITH A STRONG JET
OVERHEAD...BELIEVE MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 30 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY COME TO AND END EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH PW/S LOWERING BELOW ONE HALF
INCH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF DRY AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S INTO THE PANHANDLE. BY
THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIMITS
DEEPER MIXING.

FORECAST MUCH MORE TRICKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. GFS DEVELOPS A SLOW MOVING CLOSE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND THEN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BY
SATURDAY. IN OTHER WORDS THE ECMWF IS NOT ONLY COOLER BUT WOULD ALSO
SUGGESTS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER MODEL BUT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTENCE GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO LAST WINTER FAVORS NORTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH 00Z OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN CONCERN OF NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 311150
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. 250 MB JET STREAM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER 100 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS JUST STARTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY TODAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...RESULTING IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SINCE THE FRONT WILL
STALL LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN THOUGH
THE RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ACTIVE. WITH A STRONG JET
OVERHEAD...BELIEVE MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 30 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY COME TO AND END EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH PW/S LOWERING BELOW ONE HALF
INCH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF DRY AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S INTO THE PANHANDLE. BY
THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIMITS
DEEPER MIXING.

FORECAST MUCH MORE TRICKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. GFS DEVELOPS A SLOW MOVING CLOSE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND THEN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BY
SATURDAY. IN OTHER WORDS THE ECMWF IS NOT ONLY COOLER BUT WOULD ALSO
SUGGESTS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER MODEL BUT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTENCE GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO LAST WINTER FAVORS NORTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND/OR DIE OFF BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN CONCERN OF NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310944
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
344 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. 250 MB JET STREAM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER 100 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS JUST STARTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY TODAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...RESULTING IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SINCE THE FRONT WILL
STALL LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN THOUGH
THE RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ACTIVE. WITH A STRONG JET
OVERHEAD...BELIEVE MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 30 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY COME TO AND END EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH PW/S LOWERING BELOW ONE HALF
INCH DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF DRY AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S INTO THE PANHANDLE. BY
THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIMITS
DEEPER MIXING.

FORECAST MUCH MORE TRICKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. GFS DEVELOPS A SLOW MOVING CLOSE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND THEN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BY
SATURDAY. IN OTHER WORDS THE ECMWF IS NOT ONLY COOLER BUT WOULD ALSO
SUGGESTS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER MODEL BUT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTENCE GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO LAST WINTER FAVORS NORTHWEST
FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. STILL KICKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE WEST...BUT ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION COMING TO
AN END. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. RETURN
OF GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN CONCERN OF NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









000
FXUS65 KCYS 310944
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
344 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. 250 MB JET STREAM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER 100 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS JUST STARTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT A COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY TODAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...RESULTING IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SINCE THE FRONT WILL
STALL LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE EVEN THOUGH
THE RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ACTIVE. WITH A STRONG JET
OVERHEAD...BELIEVE MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 30 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY COME TO AND END EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH PW/S LOWERING BELOW ONE HALF
INCH DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF DRY AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S INTO THE PANHANDLE. BY
THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIMITS
DEEPER MIXING.

FORECAST MUCH MORE TRICKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. GFS DEVELOPS A SLOW MOVING CLOSE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND THEN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BY
SATURDAY. IN OTHER WORDS THE ECMWF IS NOT ONLY COOLER BUT WOULD ALSO
SUGGESTS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER MODEL BUT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTENCE GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO LAST WINTER FAVORS NORTHWEST
FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. STILL KICKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE WEST...BUT ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION COMING TO
AN END. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. RETURN
OF GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THEN CONCERN OF NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 310427
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1027 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVE. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WERE COMMON WITH LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND RESULTANT INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. WE HAD ONE
STORM KICK OUT SOME INTENSE OUTFLOW AS IT MOVED OVER CYS AROUND
500 PM WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH REPORTED AT THE INTERSTATE 80 PORT OF
ENTRY EAST OF CHEYENNE. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND A GENERAL LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING HAS STABILIZED THINGS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANYMORE BIG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD ALSO SEE LESS IN THE
WAY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WY AS OF 02Z. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
WEAK TSTMS OVER THE PANHANDLE. CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHUT PCPN OFF FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT IS STILL HANGING BACK OVER CENTRAL WY. FROPA OVERNIGHT AND
LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SUN. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUD TRENDS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED
FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND NEAR TERM HIGH-RES
MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ENTERING SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP ALONG LARAMIE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
PLAINS ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20
KTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INCLUDING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO 3MB/3HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS COULD AUGMENT THE
CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NW-SE ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AND
STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 105 KT JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH THE SFC FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO ANTICIPATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...AND INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF SHEAR OVERHEAD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING WITH STORMS PUSHING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MOST OF ANY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY WITH GFS SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ZONES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTIVE THAT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING THEM A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIDWEEK WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES DRIER AS WELL
(PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS). OTHERWISE...GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF
BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD HELP US TAP INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOCALLY CHANCE POPS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. STILL KICKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE WEST...BUT ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION COMING TO
AN END. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. RETURN
OF GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS A
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ZONES 301 AND 311...AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 1200 AND 1900.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND AS ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LOOKING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA AS
A RESULT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310427
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1027 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVE. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WERE COMMON WITH LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND RESULTANT INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. WE HAD ONE
STORM KICK OUT SOME INTENSE OUTFLOW AS IT MOVED OVER CYS AROUND
500 PM WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH REPORTED AT THE INTERSTATE 80 PORT OF
ENTRY EAST OF CHEYENNE. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND A GENERAL LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING HAS STABILIZED THINGS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANYMORE BIG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD ALSO SEE LESS IN THE
WAY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WY AS OF 02Z. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
WEAK TSTMS OVER THE PANHANDLE. CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHUT PCPN OFF FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT IS STILL HANGING BACK OVER CENTRAL WY. FROPA OVERNIGHT AND
LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SUN. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUD TRENDS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED
FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND NEAR TERM HIGH-RES
MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ENTERING SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP ALONG LARAMIE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
PLAINS ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20
KTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INCLUDING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO 3MB/3HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS COULD AUGMENT THE
CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NW-SE ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AND
STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 105 KT JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH THE SFC FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO ANTICIPATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...AND INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF SHEAR OVERHEAD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING WITH STORMS PUSHING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MOST OF ANY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY WITH GFS SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ZONES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTIVE THAT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING THEM A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIDWEEK WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES DRIER AS WELL
(PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS). OTHERWISE...GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF
BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD HELP US TAP INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOCALLY CHANCE POPS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. STILL KICKING OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE WEST...BUT ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION COMING TO
AN END. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. RETURN
OF GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS A
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ZONES 301 AND 311...AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 1200 AND 1900.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND AS ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LOOKING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA AS
A RESULT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 310239
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
839 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVE. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WERE COMMON WITH LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND RESULTANT INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. WE HAD ONE
STORM KICK OUT SOME INTENSE OUTFLOW AS IT MOVED OVER CYS AROUND
500 PM WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH REPORTED AT THE INTERSTATE 80 PORT OF
ENTRY EAST OF CHEYENNE. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND A GENERAL LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING HAS STABILIZED THINGS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANYMORE BIG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD ALSO SEE LESS IN THE
WAY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WY AS OF 02Z. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
WEAK TSTMS OVER THE PANHANDLE. CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHUT PCPN OFF FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT IS STILL HANGING BACK OVER CENTRAL WY. FROPA OVERNIGHT AND
LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SUN. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUD TRENDS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED
FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND NEAR TERM HIGH-RES
MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ENTERING SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP ALONG LARAMIE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
PLAINS ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20
KTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INCLUDING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO 3MB/3HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS COULD AUGMENT THE
CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NW-SE ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AND
STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 105 KT JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH THE SFC FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO ANTICIPATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...AND INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF SHEAR OVERHEAD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING WITH STORMS PUSHING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MOST OF ANY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY WITH GFS SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ZONES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTIVE THAT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING THEM A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIDWEEK WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES DRIER AS WELL
(PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS). OTHERWISE...GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF
BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD HELP US TAP INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOCALLY CHANCE POPS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THINK
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS A
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ZONES 301 AND 311...AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 1200 AND 1900.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND AS ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LOOKING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA AS
A RESULT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310239
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
839 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVE. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WERE COMMON WITH LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND RESULTANT INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. WE HAD ONE
STORM KICK OUT SOME INTENSE OUTFLOW AS IT MOVED OVER CYS AROUND
500 PM WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH REPORTED AT THE INTERSTATE 80 PORT OF
ENTRY EAST OF CHEYENNE. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND A GENERAL LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING HAS STABILIZED THINGS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANYMORE BIG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD ALSO SEE LESS IN THE
WAY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WY AS OF 02Z. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
WEAK TSTMS OVER THE PANHANDLE. CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHUT PCPN OFF FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT IS STILL HANGING BACK OVER CENTRAL WY. FROPA OVERNIGHT AND
LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SUN. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUD TRENDS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED
FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND NEAR TERM HIGH-RES
MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ENTERING SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP ALONG LARAMIE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
PLAINS ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20
KTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INCLUDING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO 3MB/3HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS COULD AUGMENT THE
CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NW-SE ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AND
STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 105 KT JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH THE SFC FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO ANTICIPATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...AND INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF SHEAR OVERHEAD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING WITH STORMS PUSHING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MOST OF ANY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY WITH GFS SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ZONES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTIVE THAT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING THEM A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIDWEEK WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES DRIER AS WELL
(PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS). OTHERWISE...GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF
BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD HELP US TAP INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOCALLY CHANCE POPS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THINK
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS A
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ZONES 301 AND 311...AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 1200 AND 1900.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND AS ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LOOKING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA AS
A RESULT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 302301
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
501 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ENTERING SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP ALONG LARAMIE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
PLAINS ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20
KTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INCLUDING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO 3MB/3HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS COULD AUGMENT THE
CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NW-SE ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AND
STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 105 KT JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH THE SFC FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO ANTICIPATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...AND INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF SHEAR OVERHEAD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING WITH STORMS PUSHING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MOST OF ANY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY WITH GFS SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ZONES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTIVE THAT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING THEM A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIDWEEK WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES DRIER AS WELL
(PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS). OTHERWISE...GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF
BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD HELP US TAP INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOCALLY CHANCE POPS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THINK
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS A
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ZONES 301 AND 311...AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 1200 AND 1900.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND AS ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LOOKING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA AS
A RESULT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM








000
FXUS65 KCYS 302301
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
501 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ENTERING SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP ALONG LARAMIE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
PLAINS ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20
KTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INCLUDING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO 3MB/3HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS COULD AUGMENT THE
CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NW-SE ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AND
STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 105 KT JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH THE SFC FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO ANTICIPATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...AND INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF SHEAR OVERHEAD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING WITH STORMS PUSHING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MOST OF ANY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY WITH GFS SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ZONES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTIVE THAT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING THEM A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIDWEEK WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES DRIER AS WELL
(PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS). OTHERWISE...GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF
BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD HELP US TAP INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOCALLY CHANCE POPS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THINK
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS A
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ZONES 301 AND 311...AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 1200 AND 1900.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND AS ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LOOKING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA AS
A RESULT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM







000
FXUS65 KCYS 302218
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ENTERING SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP ALONG LARAMIE AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
PLAINS ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20
KTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INCLUDING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN IMPACT. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO 3MB/3HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS COULD AUGMENT THE
CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NW-SE ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND AND
STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 105 KT JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH THE SFC FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO ANTICIPATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...AND INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF SHEAR OVERHEAD. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY EVENING WITH STORMS PUSHING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MOST OF ANY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY WITH GFS SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN
ZONES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN INDICATED IN
THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTIVE THAT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING THEM A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIDWEEK WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES DRIER AS WELL
(PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS). OTHERWISE...GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF
BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INDUCING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD HELP US TAP INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING UP THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO
SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOCALLY CHANCE POPS
(HIGHER TERRAIN) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 12 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST TRENDS STILL SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
CHEYENNE IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH MODEL RUNS DEVELOP CONVECTION AROUND RAWLINS AND LARAMIE
AROUND 21Z...WORKING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHEYENNE AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENING IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE HIGHLY
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE 00Z-03Z. HRRR
TIMING CLOSE TO OUR THINKING AS WELL ON TIMING FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF EACH FORECAST LOCATION. DIDNT
MENTION VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALLIANCE AND SYDNEY DUE TO
GREATER CAP IN THE EAST. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAILING VFR
ALL PERIODS. COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PREVAILING MENTION BELOW VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AS A
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ZONES 301 AND 311...AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EASE TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 1200 AND 1900.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND AS ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
LOOKING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA AS
A RESULT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...RJM









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