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000
FXUS65 KCYS 072123
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
323 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AMSU-SSM/I
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOW PW VALUES ROUGHLY 100-120% OF NORMAL
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW/MID CLOUDS THINNED QUITE A
BIT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE. AS
A RESULT...SBCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ARE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MUCH LESS OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MUCH SLOWER TO BREAK UP. WITH THIS
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING ESPECIALLY FROM THE SIERRA MADRES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND
COMBINES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL THINKING THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG OVER THIS AREA WITH INSTABILITY...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGH PW`S IN PLACE...SO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE STILL A HIGH POSSIBILITY. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVER AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN THESE AREAS. A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TREK EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AS WELL THIS EVENING SO KEPT A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE HERE...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. LLVL SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
UPSLOPE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
WITH  TIMING NOR HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO DUE TO EXPECTED
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG
ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO PUSH FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SNOWIES AND
SIERRA MADRES. STILL THINKING WILL NEED TO REISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FOR TOMORROW BUT IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TODAYS
ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER OVERALL WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPS MOVING OVERHEAD...HOWEVER HIGHER INSTABILITY OF 500-
2000 J/KG IS PROGGED OVER A BROADER PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD MIDDAY...SO WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

IT WILL BE A MOSTLY WARM AND DRY EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRI WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE AMOUNT OF
AFTN AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE WETTER
ECMWF LIKELY OVERDONE. KEPT POPS BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. THE LEE
TROUGH WILL REALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED BY SAT WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE A
BREEZY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS 700MB WINDS OF
25-30 KTS MIX DOWN. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE. WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 0.5
INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SAT AND SUN...WILL HAVE TROUBLE
GETTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION GOING. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP TO
AROUND NORMAL FOR MID JULY BY THIS WEEKEND. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO RISE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BREAK
IN THE MONSOONAL STORMS PERSISTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR VIS IN HAZE/SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE AT CYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BRIEF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE DISTRICT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING
AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK BUT WILL TREND
WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
OF COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 072123
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
323 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AMSU-SSM/I
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOW PW VALUES ROUGHLY 100-120% OF NORMAL
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW/MID CLOUDS THINNED QUITE A
BIT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE. AS
A RESULT...SBCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ARE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MUCH LESS OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MUCH SLOWER TO BREAK UP. WITH THIS
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING ESPECIALLY FROM THE SIERRA MADRES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND
COMBINES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL THINKING THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG OVER THIS AREA WITH INSTABILITY...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGH PW`S IN PLACE...SO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE STILL A HIGH POSSIBILITY. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVER AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN THESE AREAS. A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TREK EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AS WELL THIS EVENING SO KEPT A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE HERE...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. LLVL SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
UPSLOPE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
WITH  TIMING NOR HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO DUE TO EXPECTED
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG
ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO PUSH FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SNOWIES AND
SIERRA MADRES. STILL THINKING WILL NEED TO REISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FOR TOMORROW BUT IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TODAYS
ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER OVERALL WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPS MOVING OVERHEAD...HOWEVER HIGHER INSTABILITY OF 500-
2000 J/KG IS PROGGED OVER A BROADER PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD MIDDAY...SO WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

IT WILL BE A MOSTLY WARM AND DRY EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRI WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE AMOUNT OF
AFTN AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE WETTER
ECMWF LIKELY OVERDONE. KEPT POPS BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. THE LEE
TROUGH WILL REALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED BY SAT WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE A
BREEZY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS 700MB WINDS OF
25-30 KTS MIX DOWN. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE. WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 0.5
INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SAT AND SUN...WILL HAVE TROUBLE
GETTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION GOING. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP TO
AROUND NORMAL FOR MID JULY BY THIS WEEKEND. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO RISE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BREAK
IN THE MONSOONAL STORMS PERSISTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR VIS IN HAZE/SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE AT CYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BRIEF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE DISTRICT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING
AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK BUT WILL TREND
WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
OF COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 071753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR VIS IN HAZE/SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE AT CYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BRIEF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...JG




000
FXUS65 KCYS 071753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR VIS IN HAZE/SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE AT CYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BRIEF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...JG





000
FXUS65 KCYS 071753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR VIS IN HAZE/SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE AT CYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BRIEF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...JG




000
FXUS65 KCYS 071753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR VIS IN HAZE/SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE AT CYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BRIEF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...JG





000
FXUS65 KCYS 071119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. KEEPING IFR CEILING IN
HERE AT KCYS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AT KRWL AND KLAR. WHILE OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUNF 4-5K FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG





000
FXUS65 KCYS 071119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. KEEPING IFR CEILING IN
HERE AT KCYS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AT KRWL AND KLAR. WHILE OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUNF 4-5K FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG




000
FXUS65 KCYS 071119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. KEEPING IFR CEILING IN
HERE AT KCYS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AT KRWL AND KLAR. WHILE OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUNF 4-5K FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG





000
FXUS65 KCYS 070949
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL LIFT SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE
TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070949
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL LIFT SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE
TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ109>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG





000
FXUS65 KCYS 070456
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL LIFT SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE
TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 070456
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL LIFT SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE
TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 062346
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE. CIGS WILL LIFT
SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE
TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND
KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT/KC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 062346
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE. CIGS WILL LIFT
SLOWLY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH LOW VIS DUE
TO HAZE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. VIS HAS TRENDED HIGHER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE HAZE TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS THEN POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AROUND
KCYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT/KC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 062147
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 062147
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 062147
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUDS
HAVE LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER DESTABILIZES HERE. ACROSS
THE EAST...MUCH COOLER TEMPS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP T-
STORM CHANCES MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STORMS FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS UNDER
STABLE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING LIFT FROM ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT OPENED THE DOOR FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5SM...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT BUT ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE. WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH THE
SMOKE BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS LLVL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY OVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPS WARM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING LIKELY TIED TO
OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...BUT COVERAGE IN GENERAL LOOKS MORE ISOLATED HERE.
TRENDED POPS TOWARDS THIS THINKING. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL ONCE AGAIN IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SO
PERHAPS WILL HAVE A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WELL WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND SFC FORCING OVER THIS
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW IN PLACE ON THURS...WILL
LIKELY SEE A SCATTERED COVERGE OF STORMS BEFORE THINGS DRY
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500) TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY FRI AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
WYOMING. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST WY. HAVE LOWER
POPS ON FRI WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING VERY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON THURS...BEFORE WARMING 10-15 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. IN ADDITION...CROW CREEK IN CHEYENNE HAS RISEN ABOUT A
FOOT TODAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS CREST THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING
TO LOOK PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061757
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/SMOKE. THE LOWEST
CIGS WILL BE AT CYS WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE 300-700 FT AGL.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 061200
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060957
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060957
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS
THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOG AND DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. TO THE
WEST A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
CARBON COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS AS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
THEY RETROGRADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW
TO OUR NORTH. SO...WE KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON THURSDAY THEN
TAPER DOWN TO VERY LOW POPS BY SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WE WILL
BE BACK TO PUSHING LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXCEPT 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WE STILL HAVE SCATTERED RAINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS IN FOR SOME LOCATIONS FROM CHEYENNE EAST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR
OR IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING INTO MORRILL
COUNTY NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WATERS HAVE RECEDED...
SOME STANDING WATER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORTUNATELY ONCE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO LOOK
PROMISING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 060529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WYOMING TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THEN
IFR DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...AND VFR MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WYOMING TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THEN
IFR DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...AND VFR MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 060529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WYOMING TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THEN
IFR DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

NEBRASKA TAFS...WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE NIGHT
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...AND VFR MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 060258
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
858 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. PRECIP
HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AND
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY HAVE NOT SHOWN
MANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR. PER COORDINATION
WITH SPC...WE WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 391 AS
ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. FLOODING RAINS WERE
OUR MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVE WITH A TROPICAL TYPE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND TALL/SKINNY CAPES CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF
LARAMIE AND SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTIES...RESULTING IN SEVERAL WASHED
OUT ROADS. FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ONGOING ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FCST. WE TRANSITIONED
TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...AND INCREASED POPS INTO
THE 90-100 PERCENT RANGE. WE ENDED ALL MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER 06Z
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS
WELL GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG
LATER ON...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
LLVLS MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 060002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 060002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AT 00Z...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. STILL
THINK THAT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MID MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT CONFIDENT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR...EXCEPT FOR KAIA AND KCDR.
LIKELY WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS RETURNING MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 052236
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS REALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN OVER
ALBANY/LARAMIE COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN COLORADO/WYOMING.  THE STORMS OVER LARAMIE COUNTY HAVE
BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING RADAR DERIVED
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES.  PLENTIFUL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORM THOUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE FAR PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES OF 2000-
2500 J/KG) IN NORTHERN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30 KTS.  THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES ALONG
THE EASTERN CWA BORDER IN THE PANHANDLE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE DOES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE BY THE AFTN BUT DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. GET SOME WARMING ON TUES...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UNSETTLED AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY. A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINING WILL
DECENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WILL KEEP MENTION FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...HOWEVER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS AS WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF ON
FRIDAY...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE WETTER GFS CARRIES THE CONVECTION EAST IN THE
EVENING WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN ZONES DRY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT. FOR SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS BUILD A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THAT RIDGE UP INTO THE ROCKIES AS WELL. THE GFS IS
STARTING TO TREND THAT WAY...BUT STILL SWEEPS A BIT MORE MIDLEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE EVENING. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT LEFT REMAINING AREAS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
 MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051820
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051820
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AT
18Z AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 051003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER INTO FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND COLD
FRONT WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHOULD REACH THE COLORADO BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ROBUST
CAPE PROFILES THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING PACIFIC MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS...FURTHER
DECREASING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE THINKING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IN RELATIVE TERMS.

MONDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING AN HOW MUCH COOL AIR REMAINS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC MONDAY. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS MONDAY NIGHT
IS THEY ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD POPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY BUT COULD BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS WET UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEM WERE INDICATING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CONDITIONS TO DRY A BIT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF UNDER ESTIMATING
BL MOISTURE...NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO A "DRIER" SOLUTION...BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STALLING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT POP BETWEEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS MODELS ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PREVIOUSLY...ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF RUN IS DOING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR KLAR AND KAIA.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM 11Z TO
18Z TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 20Z...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS ARE EXPECTED FROM KRWL TO KCYS IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A BIT COOLER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MANY NIGHTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 050411
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER SUPPER TIME WITH STORM
STRENGTH DECREASING...AND LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE EVENING IN STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 042343
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE
...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 042343
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE
...OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 042207
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 042207
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
407 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.  BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
 THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA.  HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING.  THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.  SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.  A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER.  KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST  TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





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