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000
FXUS65 KCYS 252332
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
432 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART REGARDING STRONG WINDS
AND SNOW PER UPDATED DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ABOUT HALFWAY-THREE QUARTERS THROUGH
THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...WITH SNOW AND LIGHT SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AS IT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW
AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
WINDS A BIT CALMER ACROSS THE WYO PLAINS AT THIS HOUR. WILL LEAVE
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AS IS AT LEAST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
SUMMIT AND EXTEND THE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT TO THE AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. AFTER A FURTHER LOOK AT THE
WIND PROGS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...AND DISCUSSION WITH OUR
PARTNERS ABOUT POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS UP AT THE SUMMIT WITH THE
COMBO OF SNOW AND WIND...FELT IT NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE ADVISORY
FOR THESE TWO CHANGES. 2 TO 5 INCHES STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNRISE UP NEAR
THE SUMMIT AS THE SNOW ENDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN
THE MORNING AS WELL WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL...SO COULD SEE SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ALONG I-25 AND I-80
APPROACHING CHEYENNE DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
EXTENDING THE TIMING THROUGH 2 PM AS BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE LESS
OF A CONCERN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS AND SOME HEATING THROUGH
THE DAY WORK OVER THE SNOWPACK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLVL GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN STORY THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL BE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE MAIN
WIND CORRIDORS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG GUSTS WITH AN H25
JET CORE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WEAK SFC
LOW PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS PRETTY MUCH
KEEPS THE LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 METERS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 50 KT 700 MB
FLOW...INCREASED WINDS AND KEPT GUSTS RIGHT AROUND WARNING CRITERIA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR ARLINGTON/BORDEAUX AND I80 BETWEEN
LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. ASIDE FROM THE WIND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
RATHER WARM THANKSGIVING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST H7 TEMPS IN
THE 2-3 DEG C RANGE. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WOULD FAVOR THE WARMER
MOS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60-65 F OVER THE PLAINS ON THU/FRI. A CANADIAN
SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SAT...PUSHING THE BEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
PROVIDING A BREAK FROM HIGH WINDS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SUN...SENDING A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECM WITH THE DEPTH
OF COLD AIR. THE COLDER ECMWF SHOWS TEMPS AROUND -9C AT 700 MB IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 18Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY SHOWS -3C
AT THE SAME TIME. STILL LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD WITH A LACK OF
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMICS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUE AND WED WITH THE RETURN OF MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO HIGH WIND
FOR MOST AREAS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE BETWEEN 03-09Z ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DGW TO
SNY WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. VSBYS WILL LIKELY
BE IFR TO LIFR BENEATH THIS BAND. SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD FURTHER
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON WED MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WYOMING TERMINALS ON WED AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE
UP TO ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-116-117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106-107-116>119.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ107-113-115-
     118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251944
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1244 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGHEST WINDS RECORDED SO FAR
OCCURRED IN THE ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM...WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 80 MPH. 55 TO 65 MPH GUSTS WERE COMMON
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. ALSO NOTICED KSAA APPROACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...SO ADDED IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO
THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS HAVE SETTLED A BIT SINCE EARLIER
ON WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING MORE 55 TO 65 MPH. SHOULD SEE THESE
SPEEDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS FULL MIXING POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN SPEEDS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY 03Z AND WILL STALL
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...RELAXING THE GRADIENT SUFFICIENTLY TO
DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THINK THE LULL IN SPEEDS
WILL BE BRIEF OUT AT ARLINGTON AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS TO REDEVELOP IN THIS
AREA. SO WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
ARLINGTON AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT
WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND BORDEAUX AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE
REALIZED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING SYNC UP FAIRLY WELL WITH GUIDANCE REGARDING SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. BASED ON CONSISTENT PROGS FOR FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE
EPV ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND...UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINING UP NW-SE FROM THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE TO EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP AFTER AROUND
02Z THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. INITIAL
DEEP OMEGA AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND INTENSIFIES WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
BAND SETTLES. THUS...WENT AHEAD WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES.
CURRENT PROGS EVENTUALLY SETTLE THE SNOW BAND SOUTH OF GOSHEN
COUNTY SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD TAKING ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WITH A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. LETS FIRST FOCUS ON HIGH WINDS
TODAY. 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 1006MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVR
SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN AMPLIFYING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. KCAG-KCPR GRADIENT ALREADY AT AROUND 13MB
AT THIS HOUR. WINDS HAVE COME UP IN THE ARLINGTON AREA RIGHT ON
TIME BETWEEN 08-09Z WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 60 MPH.
MEANWHILE AT H3...THE FAVORABLE SUBSIDING RFQ OF 160 KNOT
ANTICYCLONIC JET WAS JUST ENTERING WRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH H7 PROGS OF 50-70 KNOTS AND KCAG-KCPR
LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENTS OF 60-90 METERS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60+ MPH GUSTS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE JUST HOW MUCH THICKER CLOUD COVER LESSENS LLVL MIXING.
MORNING SATELLITE PIX SHOWS A THICK SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING THESE WINDS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ERN LARAMIE COUNTY STRUGGLES A BIT TO GET THERE.
ALTHOUGH LLVL GRADIENTS DROP OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THEY STILL
REMAIN ABOVE 60 METERS THRU MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA.

THE OTHER FORECAST FOCUS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TODAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TONIGHT ON THE ERN PLAINS OF SE
WYOMING. THE CULPRIT IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND IS PROGD TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
SUNSET. AS IT DOES SO...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. AREA OF
NEGATIVE EPV BECOMES CO-LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE LLVL SFC FRONT TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NW/SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND
TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW BANDING TONIGHT. MOST AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO
4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE PENDING WHERE THE SNOW BAND SETS UP...WHICH
MODELS HAVE NOW ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY. THINK THAT AN ADVISORY WILL
BE NECESSARY WHEREVER THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THRU TONIGHT WITH AN ADDL FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED
THERE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING AS INHERITED.

A LESS EVENTFUL DAY IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD
FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS EAST
OF A LUSK TO BRIDGEPORT LINE ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE NOV FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS AND COMBINE WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 1-3C. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE
WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI WHEN MANY AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50 AND 60 METERS FROM THURS INTO MIDDAY SAT
SO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TWO DAYS
WHERE PLACES LIKE ARLINGTON WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SAT WITH A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO MONTANA. HIGHER PRESSURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGH WIND THREAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE SAT.  THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS HAS A STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT A
15 DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR SUN...BUT THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD JUSTIFY A
BIGGER DROP. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON MON AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST
AS HIGH AS 55 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE. A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 23Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DGW
TO BFF. IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN -SN AND BLSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE UP TO ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106-107-117>119.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ107-113-115-
     118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251944
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1244 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGHEST WINDS RECORDED SO FAR
OCCURRED IN THE ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM...WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 80 MPH. 55 TO 65 MPH GUSTS WERE COMMON
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. ALSO NOTICED KSAA APPROACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...SO ADDED IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO
THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS HAVE SETTLED A BIT SINCE EARLIER
ON WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING MORE 55 TO 65 MPH. SHOULD SEE THESE
SPEEDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS FULL MIXING POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN SPEEDS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY 03Z AND WILL STALL
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...RELAXING THE GRADIENT SUFFICIENTLY TO
DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THINK THE LULL IN SPEEDS
WILL BE BRIEF OUT AT ARLINGTON AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS TO REDEVELOP IN THIS
AREA. SO WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
ARLINGTON AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT
WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND BORDEAUX AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE
REALIZED AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING SYNC UP FAIRLY WELL WITH GUIDANCE REGARDING SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. BASED ON CONSISTENT PROGS FOR FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE
EPV ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND...UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINING UP NW-SE FROM THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE TO EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP AFTER AROUND
02Z THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. INITIAL
DEEP OMEGA AS THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND INTENSIFIES WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE RFQ OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
BAND SETTLES. THUS...WENT AHEAD WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES.
CURRENT PROGS EVENTUALLY SETTLE THE SNOW BAND SOUTH OF GOSHEN
COUNTY SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD TAKING ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WITH A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. LETS FIRST FOCUS ON HIGH WINDS
TODAY. 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 1006MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVR
SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN AMPLIFYING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. KCAG-KCPR GRADIENT ALREADY AT AROUND 13MB
AT THIS HOUR. WINDS HAVE COME UP IN THE ARLINGTON AREA RIGHT ON
TIME BETWEEN 08-09Z WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 60 MPH.
MEANWHILE AT H3...THE FAVORABLE SUBSIDING RFQ OF 160 KNOT
ANTICYCLONIC JET WAS JUST ENTERING WRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH H7 PROGS OF 50-70 KNOTS AND KCAG-KCPR
LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENTS OF 60-90 METERS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60+ MPH GUSTS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE JUST HOW MUCH THICKER CLOUD COVER LESSENS LLVL MIXING.
MORNING SATELLITE PIX SHOWS A THICK SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING THESE WINDS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ERN LARAMIE COUNTY STRUGGLES A BIT TO GET THERE.
ALTHOUGH LLVL GRADIENTS DROP OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THEY STILL
REMAIN ABOVE 60 METERS THRU MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA.

THE OTHER FORECAST FOCUS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TODAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TONIGHT ON THE ERN PLAINS OF SE
WYOMING. THE CULPRIT IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND IS PROGD TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
SUNSET. AS IT DOES SO...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. AREA OF
NEGATIVE EPV BECOMES CO-LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE LLVL SFC FRONT TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NW/SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND
TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW BANDING TONIGHT. MOST AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO
4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE PENDING WHERE THE SNOW BAND SETS UP...WHICH
MODELS HAVE NOW ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY. THINK THAT AN ADVISORY WILL
BE NECESSARY WHEREVER THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THRU TONIGHT WITH AN ADDL FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED
THERE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING AS INHERITED.

A LESS EVENTFUL DAY IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD
FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS EAST
OF A LUSK TO BRIDGEPORT LINE ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE NOV FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS AND COMBINE WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 1-3C. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE
WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI WHEN MANY AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50 AND 60 METERS FROM THURS INTO MIDDAY SAT
SO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TWO DAYS
WHERE PLACES LIKE ARLINGTON WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SAT WITH A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO MONTANA. HIGHER PRESSURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGH WIND THREAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE SAT.  THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS HAS A STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT A
15 DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR SUN...BUT THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD JUSTIFY A
BIGGER DROP. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON MON AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST
AS HIGH AS 55 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE. A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 23Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DGW
TO BFF. IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN -SN AND BLSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE UP TO ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106-107-117>119.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ107-113-115-
     118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 251204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
504 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD TAKING ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WITH A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. LETS FIRST FOCUS ON HIGH WINDS
TODAY. 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 1006MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVR
SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN AMPLIFYING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. KCAG-KCPR GRADIENT ALREADY AT AROUND 13MB
AT THIS HOUR. WINDS HAVE COME UP IN THE ARLINGTON AREA RIGHT ON
TIME BETWEEN 08-09Z WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 60 MPH.
MEANWHILE AT H3...THE FAVORABLE SUBSIDING RFQ OF 160 KNOT
ANTICYCLONIC JET WAS JUST ENTERING WRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH H7 PROGS OF 50-70 KNOTS AND KCAG-KCPR
LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENTS OF 60-90 METERS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60+ MPH GUSTS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE JUST HOW MUCH THICKER CLOUD COVER LESSENS LLVL MIXING.
MORNING SATELLITE PIX SHOWS A THICK SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING THESE WINDS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ERN LARAMIE COUNTY STRUGGLES A BIT TO GET THERE.
ALTHOUGH LLVL GRADIENTS DROP OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THEY STILL
REMAIN ABOVE 60 METERS THRU MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA.

THE OTHER FORECAST FOCUS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TODAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TONIGHT ON THE ERN PLAINS OF SE
WYOMING. THE CULPRIT IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND IS PROGD TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
SUNSET. AS IT DOES SO...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. AREA OF
NEGATIVE EPV BECOMES CO-LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE LLVL SFC FRONT TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NW/SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND
TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW BANDING TONIGHT. MOST AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO
4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE PENDING WHERE THE SNOW BAND SETS UP...WHICH
MODELS HAVE NOW ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY. THINK THAT AN ADVISORY WILL
BE NECESSARY WHEREVER THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THRU TONIGHT WITH AN ADDL FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED
THERE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING AS INHERITED.

A LESS EVENTFUL DAY IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD
FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS EAST
OF A LUSK TO BRIDGEPORT LINE ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE NOV FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS AND COMBINE WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 1-3C. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE
WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI WHEN MANY AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50 AND 60 METERS FROM THURS INTO MIDDAY SAT
SO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TWO DAYS
WHERE PLACES LIKE ARLINGTON WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SAT WITH A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO MONTANA. HIGHER PRESSURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGH WIND THREAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE SAT.  THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS HAS A STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT A
15 DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR SUN...BUT THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD JUSTIFY A
BIGGER DROP. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON MON AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY
MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z BUT REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AT THE WY
SITES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE UP TO ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ107-115-118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 251204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
504 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD TAKING ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WITH A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. LETS FIRST FOCUS ON HIGH WINDS
TODAY. 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 1006MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVR
SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN AMPLIFYING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. KCAG-KCPR GRADIENT ALREADY AT AROUND 13MB
AT THIS HOUR. WINDS HAVE COME UP IN THE ARLINGTON AREA RIGHT ON
TIME BETWEEN 08-09Z WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 60 MPH.
MEANWHILE AT H3...THE FAVORABLE SUBSIDING RFQ OF 160 KNOT
ANTICYCLONIC JET WAS JUST ENTERING WRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH H7 PROGS OF 50-70 KNOTS AND KCAG-KCPR
LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENTS OF 60-90 METERS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60+ MPH GUSTS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE JUST HOW MUCH THICKER CLOUD COVER LESSENS LLVL MIXING.
MORNING SATELLITE PIX SHOWS A THICK SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING THESE WINDS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ERN LARAMIE COUNTY STRUGGLES A BIT TO GET THERE.
ALTHOUGH LLVL GRADIENTS DROP OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THEY STILL
REMAIN ABOVE 60 METERS THRU MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA.

THE OTHER FORECAST FOCUS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TODAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TONIGHT ON THE ERN PLAINS OF SE
WYOMING. THE CULPRIT IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND IS PROGD TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
SUNSET. AS IT DOES SO...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. AREA OF
NEGATIVE EPV BECOMES CO-LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE LLVL SFC FRONT TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NW/SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND
TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW BANDING TONIGHT. MOST AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO
4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE PENDING WHERE THE SNOW BAND SETS UP...WHICH
MODELS HAVE NOW ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY. THINK THAT AN ADVISORY WILL
BE NECESSARY WHEREVER THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THRU TONIGHT WITH AN ADDL FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED
THERE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING AS INHERITED.

A LESS EVENTFUL DAY IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD
FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS EAST
OF A LUSK TO BRIDGEPORT LINE ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE NOV FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS AND COMBINE WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 1-3C. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE
WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI WHEN MANY AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50 AND 60 METERS FROM THURS INTO MIDDAY SAT
SO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TWO DAYS
WHERE PLACES LIKE ARLINGTON WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SAT WITH A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO MONTANA. HIGHER PRESSURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGH WIND THREAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE SAT.  THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS HAS A STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT A
15 DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR SUN...BUT THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD JUSTIFY A
BIGGER DROP. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON MON AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY
MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z BUT REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AT THE WY
SITES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE UP TO ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ107-115-118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
413 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD TAKING ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WITH A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTEAST WYOMING TODAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. LETS FIRST FOCUS ON HIGH WINDS
TODAY. 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 1006MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVR
SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN AMPLIFYING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. KCAG-KCPR GRADIENT ALREADY AT AROUND 13MB
AT THIS HOUR. WINDS HAVE COME UP IN THE ARLINGTON AREA RIGHT ON
TIME BETWEEN 08-09Z WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 60 MPH.
MEANWHILE AT H3...THE FAVORABLE SUBSIDING RFQ OF 160 KNOT
ANTICYLONIC JET WAS JUST ENTERING WRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH H7 PROGS OF 50-70 KNOTS AND KCAG-KCPR
LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENTS OF 60-90 METERS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60+ MPH GUSTS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE JUST HOW MUCH THICKER CLOUD COVER LESSENS LLVL MIXING.
MORNING SATELLITE PIX SHOWS A THICK SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING THESE WINDS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ERN LARAMIE COUNTY STRUGGLES A BIT TO GET THERE.
ALTHOUGH LLVL GRADIENTS DROP OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THEY STILL
REMAIN ABOVE 60 METERS THRU MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA.

THE OTHER FORECAST FOCUS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TODAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TONIGHT ON THE ERN PLAINS OF SE
WYOMING. THE CULPRIT IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND IS PROGD TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
SUNSET. AS IT DOES SO...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. AREA OF
NEGATIVE EPV BECOMES CO-LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE LLVL SFC FRONT TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NW/SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND
TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW BANDING TONIGHT. MOST AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO
4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE PENDING WHERE THE SNOW BAND SETS UP...WHICH
MODELS HAVE NOW ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY. THINK THAT AN ADVISORY WILL
BE NECESSARY WHEREVER THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THRU TONIGHT WITH AN ADDL FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED
THERE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING AS INHERITED.

A LESS EVENTFUL DAY IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE LARAMEI RANGE. COLD
FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS EAST
OF A LUSK TO BRIDGEPORT LINE ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE NOV FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS AND COMBINE WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 1-3C. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE
WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI WHEN MANY AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50 AND 60 METERS FROM THURS INTO MIDDAY SAT
SO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TWO DAYS
WHERE PLACES LIKE ARLINGTON WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SAT WITH A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO MONTANA. HIGHER PRESSURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGH WIND THREAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE SAT.  THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS HAS A STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT A
15 DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR SUN...BUT THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD JUSTIFY A
BIGGER DROP. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON MON AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND PERISTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS CARBON COUNTY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...SPREADING EAST TO KLAR AND POSSIBLY KCYS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE UP TO ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ107-115-118-119.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
413 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD TAKING ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WITH A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTEAST WYOMING TODAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. LETS FIRST FOCUS ON HIGH WINDS
TODAY. 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 1006MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVR
SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN AMPLIFYING PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. KCAG-KCPR GRADIENT ALREADY AT AROUND 13MB
AT THIS HOUR. WINDS HAVE COME UP IN THE ARLINGTON AREA RIGHT ON
TIME BETWEEN 08-09Z WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 60 MPH.
MEANWHILE AT H3...THE FAVORABLE SUBSIDING RFQ OF 160 KNOT
ANTICYLONIC JET WAS JUST ENTERING WRN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH H7 PROGS OF 50-70 KNOTS AND KCAG-KCPR
LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENTS OF 60-90 METERS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60+ MPH GUSTS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE JUST HOW MUCH THICKER CLOUD COVER LESSENS LLVL MIXING.
MORNING SATELLITE PIX SHOWS A THICK SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING THESE WINDS. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ERN LARAMIE COUNTY STRUGGLES A BIT TO GET THERE.
ALTHOUGH LLVL GRADIENTS DROP OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THEY STILL
REMAIN ABOVE 60 METERS THRU MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA.

THE OTHER FORECAST FOCUS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TODAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND TONIGHT ON THE ERN PLAINS OF SE
WYOMING. THE CULPRIT IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF ALBERTA THIS MORNING AND IS PROGD TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
SUNSET. AS IT DOES SO...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. AREA OF
NEGATIVE EPV BECOMES CO-LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE LLVL SFC FRONT TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NW/SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND
TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED SNOW CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW BANDING TONIGHT. MOST AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO
4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE PENDING WHERE THE SNOW BAND SETS UP...WHICH
MODELS HAVE NOW ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY. THINK THAT AN ADVISORY WILL
BE NECESSARY WHEREVER THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THRU TONIGHT WITH AN ADDL FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED
THERE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING AS INHERITED.

A LESS EVENTFUL DAY IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE LARAMEI RANGE. COLD
FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS EAST
OF A LUSK TO BRIDGEPORT LINE ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE NOV FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
LLVLS AND COMBINE WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 1-3C. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE
WARMEST TEMPS ON FRI WHEN MANY AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50 AND 60 METERS FROM THURS INTO MIDDAY SAT
SO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TWO DAYS
WHERE PLACES LIKE ARLINGTON WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
ON SAT WITH A SFC HIGH MOVING INTO MONTANA. HIGHER PRESSURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGH WIND THREAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE SAT.  THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BACKING
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS HAS A STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT A
15 DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR SUN...BUT THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD JUSTIFY A
BIGGER DROP. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON MON AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND PERISTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS CARBON COUNTY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...SPREADING EAST TO KLAR AND POSSIBLY KCYS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS TODAY WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE UP TO ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ107-115-118-119.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 250514
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1014 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RATHER VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE
LFQ OF A STRONG JET. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY CONVECTIVE
WINDS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS
DROP TONIGHT AND FREEZE SNOW/ICE TO ROADS...ESPECIALLY I-25 AND
I-80 NEAR CHEYENNE...SO EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF TRAVELING
THROUGH THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SNOW. THE 130 KT JET WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ALL
THE WHILE INTENSIFYING ANOTHER 20 TO 30 KTS. STRONG MIDLEVEL
ENERGY COLLOCATED WITH THE JET WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
IN THE MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND STRENGTHENING JET...THE LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH 800 - 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KTS
RESPECTIVELY BY SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE INVERSION
LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IN THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS THE RFQ OF THE JET THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD. THEREFORE EXPECT STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND ACTIVE
MOUNTAIN WAVE GUSTS TO OCCUR FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25
AND FOR EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AND TIMED IT SUCH THAT THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS FROM BORDEAUX...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON AND NORTHERN ALBANY/CARBON COUNTIES START
EARLIER IN THE MORNING AND END LATER TO CAPTURE MOUNTAIN WAVE AND
GAP INFLUENCES...WITH THE REMAINING ZONES EXPECTED TO SEE THE
STRONG WINDS TIED MORE TO DIURNAL MIXING TENDENCIES.

A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS PERHAPS A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND STALLING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHORTLYAFTER
00Z. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR WHEN THE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL SHUT OFF...AND WHEN SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE WINDS DYING OFF IN THE EVENING WHILE
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS NW-SE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND ON THRU THE NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THIS AREA. SO DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OVERLAP OF
WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND FEEL THE WIND HIGHLIGHT VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW. HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS ALONG THE AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE JET SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY ACTING AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHETHER
HEAVY SNOW BANDS DO DEVELOP THO...AND WILL THEN NEED TO ENTERTAIN
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND PERHAPS WINTER HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS MOST
OF THE FORCING WILL BE TIED TO OROGRAPHICS. AGAIN FELT WIND VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS BEST FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL...BUT MENTIONED
BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING STATEMENT FOR NOW.

REGARDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DECIDED TO
JUST EXTEND THIS WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LULL IN
SNOW/WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED WITH MORE HEAVY
SNOW FOR TOMORROW. LIKELY TO SEE A 12HR PERIOD OF MINIMAL SNOW IN
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...BUT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING
AROUND SUNRISE NEAR THE PEAKS AND RESTARTING THE SNOW
MACHINE...FELT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP THE WARNING GOING. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS AND HIGH LLVL MOISTURE
PERSIST...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED OR PERHAPS HIGHER NEAR THE PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE LINGERING MORNING SNOWFALL IN AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TOWARDS
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE BAND OF 800-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
PERSISTING THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTING UP BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 295-300K. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO
AND END BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE LEE SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS. THIS LEE SIDE TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE
TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE GAP REGIONS OF
ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING 800MB
GRADIENTS AROUND 60 TO 65 METERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY:
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT WEAKER WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING SOMEWHAT THURSDAY. WE
MAY STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE GAP
AREAS...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TO SEE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CLIMB TO THE 40S AND
50S WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MILD CONDITIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG WITH
IT. THE GFS IS NOT ADVERTISING AS COLD OF AIR AS THE ECMWF AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND PERISTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS CARBON COUNTY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...SPREADING EAST TO KLAR AND POSSIBLY KCYS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ107-115-
     118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 250514
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1014 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RATHER VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE
LFQ OF A STRONG JET. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY CONVECTIVE
WINDS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS
DROP TONIGHT AND FREEZE SNOW/ICE TO ROADS...ESPECIALLY I-25 AND
I-80 NEAR CHEYENNE...SO EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF TRAVELING
THROUGH THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SNOW. THE 130 KT JET WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ALL
THE WHILE INTENSIFYING ANOTHER 20 TO 30 KTS. STRONG MIDLEVEL
ENERGY COLLOCATED WITH THE JET WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
IN THE MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND STRENGTHENING JET...THE LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH 800 - 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KTS
RESPECTIVELY BY SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE INVERSION
LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IN THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS THE RFQ OF THE JET THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD. THEREFORE EXPECT STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND ACTIVE
MOUNTAIN WAVE GUSTS TO OCCUR FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25
AND FOR EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AND TIMED IT SUCH THAT THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS FROM BORDEAUX...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON AND NORTHERN ALBANY/CARBON COUNTIES START
EARLIER IN THE MORNING AND END LATER TO CAPTURE MOUNTAIN WAVE AND
GAP INFLUENCES...WITH THE REMAINING ZONES EXPECTED TO SEE THE
STRONG WINDS TIED MORE TO DIURNAL MIXING TENDENCIES.

A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS PERHAPS A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND STALLING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHORTLYAFTER
00Z. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR WHEN THE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL SHUT OFF...AND WHEN SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE WINDS DYING OFF IN THE EVENING WHILE
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS NW-SE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND ON THRU THE NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THIS AREA. SO DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OVERLAP OF
WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND FEEL THE WIND HIGHLIGHT VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW. HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS ALONG THE AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE JET SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY ACTING AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHETHER
HEAVY SNOW BANDS DO DEVELOP THO...AND WILL THEN NEED TO ENTERTAIN
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND PERHAPS WINTER HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS MOST
OF THE FORCING WILL BE TIED TO OROGRAPHICS. AGAIN FELT WIND VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS BEST FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL...BUT MENTIONED
BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING STATEMENT FOR NOW.

REGARDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DECIDED TO
JUST EXTEND THIS WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LULL IN
SNOW/WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED WITH MORE HEAVY
SNOW FOR TOMORROW. LIKELY TO SEE A 12HR PERIOD OF MINIMAL SNOW IN
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...BUT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING
AROUND SUNRISE NEAR THE PEAKS AND RESTARTING THE SNOW
MACHINE...FELT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP THE WARNING GOING. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS AND HIGH LLVL MOISTURE
PERSIST...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED OR PERHAPS HIGHER NEAR THE PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE LINGERING MORNING SNOWFALL IN AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TOWARDS
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE BAND OF 800-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
PERSISTING THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTING UP BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 295-300K. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO
AND END BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE LEE SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS. THIS LEE SIDE TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE
TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE GAP REGIONS OF
ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING 800MB
GRADIENTS AROUND 60 TO 65 METERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY:
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT WEAKER WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING SOMEWHAT THURSDAY. WE
MAY STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE GAP
AREAS...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TO SEE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CLIMB TO THE 40S AND
50S WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MILD CONDITIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG WITH
IT. THE GFS IS NOT ADVERTISING AS COLD OF AIR AS THE ECMWF AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND PERISTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS CARBON COUNTY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...SPREADING EAST TO KLAR AND POSSIBLY KCYS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ107-115-
     118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250027
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
527 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RATHER VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE
LFQ OF A STRONG JET. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY CONVECTIVE
WINDS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS
DROP TONIGHT AND FREEZE SNOW/ICE TO ROADS...ESPECIALLY I-25 AND
I-80 NEAR CHEYENNE...SO EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF TRAVELING
THROUGH THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SNOW. THE 130 KT JET WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ALL
THE WHILE INTENSIFYING ANOTHER 20 TO 30 KTS. STRONG MIDLEVEL
ENERGY COLLOCATED WITH THE JET WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
IN THE MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND STRENGTHENING JET...THE LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH 800 - 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KTS
RESPECTIVELY BY SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE INVERSION
LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IN THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS THE RFQ OF THE JET THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD. THEREFORE EXPECT STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND ACTIVE
MOUNTAIN WAVE GUSTS TO OCCUR FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25
AND FOR EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AND TIMED IT SUCH THAT THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS FROM BORDEAUX...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON AND NORTHERN ALBANY/CARBON COUNTIES START
EARLIER IN THE MORNING AND END LATER TO CAPTURE MOUNTAIN WAVE AND
GAP INFLUENCES...WITH THE REMAINING ZONES EXPECTED TO SEE THE
STRONG WINDS TIED MORE TO DIURNAL MIXING TENDENCIES.

A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS PERHAPS A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND STALLING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHORTLYAFTER
00Z. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR WHEN THE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL SHUT OFF...AND WHEN SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE WINDS DYING OFF IN THE EVENING WHILE
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS NW-SE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND ON THRU THE NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THIS AREA. SO DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OVERLAP OF
WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND FEEL THE WIND HIGHLIGHT VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW. HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS ALONG THE AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE JET SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY ACTING AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHETHER
HEAVY SNOW BANDS DO DEVELOP THO...AND WILL THEN NEED TO ENTERTAIN
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND PERHAPS WINTER HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS MOST
OF THE FORCING WILL BE TIED TO OROGRAPHICS. AGAIN FELT WIND VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS BEST FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL...BUT MENTIONED
BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING STATEMENT FOR NOW.

REGARDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DECIDED TO
JUST EXTEND THIS WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LULL IN
SNOW/WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED WITH MORE HEAVY
SNOW FOR TOMORROW. LIKELY TO SEE A 12HR PERIOD OF MINIMAL SNOW IN
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...BUT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING
AROUND SUNRISE NEAR THE PEAKS AND RESTARTING THE SNOW
MACHINE...FELT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP THE WARNING GOING. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS AND HIGH LLVL MOISTURE
PERSIST...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED OR PERHAPS HIGHER NEAR THE PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE LINGERING MORNING SNOWFALL IN AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TOWARDS
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE BAND OF 800-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
PERSISTING THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTING UP BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 295-300K. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO
AND END BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE LEE SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS. THIS LEE SIDE TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE
TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE GAP REGIONS OF
ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING 800MB
GRADIENTS AROUND 60 TO 65 METERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY:
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT WEAKER WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING SOMEWHAT THURSDAY. WE
MAY STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE GAP
AREAS...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TO SEE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CLIMB TO THE 40S AND
50S WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MILD CONDITIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG WITH
IT. THE GFS IS NOT ADVERTISING AS COLD OF AIR AS THE ECMWF AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AND WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL PICKUP TOMORROW.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL A FEW ROGUE SNOW SHOWERS
THAT ARE REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BEFORE WIND SPEEDS START CRANKING UP OVERNIGHT STARTING AT RWL AND
LAR TAF SITES AFTER 09Z OR SO. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER
DAYBREAK. NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE RWL
TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ107-115-
     118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250027
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
527 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RATHER VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE
LFQ OF A STRONG JET. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY CONVECTIVE
WINDS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS
DROP TONIGHT AND FREEZE SNOW/ICE TO ROADS...ESPECIALLY I-25 AND
I-80 NEAR CHEYENNE...SO EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF TRAVELING
THROUGH THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SNOW. THE 130 KT JET WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ALL
THE WHILE INTENSIFYING ANOTHER 20 TO 30 KTS. STRONG MIDLEVEL
ENERGY COLLOCATED WITH THE JET WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
IN THE MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND STRENGTHENING JET...THE LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH 800 - 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KTS
RESPECTIVELY BY SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE INVERSION
LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IN THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS THE RFQ OF THE JET THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD. THEREFORE EXPECT STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND ACTIVE
MOUNTAIN WAVE GUSTS TO OCCUR FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25
AND FOR EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AND TIMED IT SUCH THAT THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS FROM BORDEAUX...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON AND NORTHERN ALBANY/CARBON COUNTIES START
EARLIER IN THE MORNING AND END LATER TO CAPTURE MOUNTAIN WAVE AND
GAP INFLUENCES...WITH THE REMAINING ZONES EXPECTED TO SEE THE
STRONG WINDS TIED MORE TO DIURNAL MIXING TENDENCIES.

A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS PERHAPS A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND STALLING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHORTLYAFTER
00Z. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR WHEN THE WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL SHUT OFF...AND WHEN SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE WINDS DYING OFF IN THE EVENING WHILE
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS NW-SE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND ON THRU THE NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THIS AREA. SO DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OVERLAP OF
WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND FEEL THE WIND HIGHLIGHT VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW. HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS ALONG THE AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE JET SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY ACTING AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHETHER
HEAVY SNOW BANDS DO DEVELOP THO...AND WILL THEN NEED TO ENTERTAIN
HIGHER AMOUNTS AND PERHAPS WINTER HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AS MOST
OF THE FORCING WILL BE TIED TO OROGRAPHICS. AGAIN FELT WIND VS
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS BEST FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL...BUT MENTIONED
BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING STATEMENT FOR NOW.

REGARDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DECIDED TO
JUST EXTEND THIS WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LULL IN
SNOW/WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED WITH MORE HEAVY
SNOW FOR TOMORROW. LIKELY TO SEE A 12HR PERIOD OF MINIMAL SNOW IN
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...BUT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING
AROUND SUNRISE NEAR THE PEAKS AND RESTARTING THE SNOW
MACHINE...FELT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP THE WARNING GOING. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS AND HIGH LLVL MOISTURE
PERSIST...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED OR PERHAPS HIGHER NEAR THE PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE LINGERING MORNING SNOWFALL IN AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TOWARDS
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE BAND OF 800-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
PERSISTING THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTING UP BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
BETWEEN 295-300K. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO
AND END BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE LEE SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS. THIS LEE SIDE TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE
TO KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE GAP REGIONS OF
ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING 800MB
GRADIENTS AROUND 60 TO 65 METERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY:
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DIMINISH DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT WEAKER WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING SOMEWHAT THURSDAY. WE
MAY STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE GAP
AREAS...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TO SEE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CLIMB TO THE 40S AND
50S WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MILD CONDITIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG WITH
IT. THE GFS IS NOT ADVERTISING AS COLD OF AIR AS THE ECMWF AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AND WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL PICKUP TOMORROW.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL A FEW ROGUE SNOW SHOWERS
THAT ARE REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BEFORE WIND SPEEDS START CRANKING UP OVERNIGHT STARTING AT RWL AND
LAR TAF SITES AFTER 09Z OR SO. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER
DAYBREAK. NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE RWL
TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ104>106-
     109-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ107-115-
     118-119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241759
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY...AIDING IN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE.  WITH
MOIST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OTHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY DAY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REALLY START TO CRANK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL CLIMB OVER 60 METERS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTING LATE.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...A HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CASPER TO CRAIG
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE WELL OVER 60 METERS...QUITE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LIKELY HIGH WIND EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
MAIN BULK OF THE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONTINUED QUITE WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WED WITH THE JET SHIFTING EAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ANTICIPATED ON WED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. RESIDUAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY RETREATING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT INHERITED BLOWING SNOW GOING FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TUESDAY NT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SFC...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AND RESULTANT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S WEST BOTH DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DROPPING SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES. 00Z GFS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME LT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DGW-CDR SATURDAY NT. THIS IS UNSUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHICH TAF SITES WILL GET
IMPACTED BY THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW JUST NORTH OF
CHEYENNE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW JUST NORTH OF CHADRON. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE CHEYENNE TAF SITE WILL SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM THE
SNOWFALL AT THE TAF SITE. HOWEVER...YOU WILL NOT HAVE FLY TOO FAR
EAST BEFORE THE VISIBILITY WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND CEILINGS
DROP TO BELOW 1KFT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO MEANWHILE...CHADRON TAF
SITE MAY SEE THE CEILINGS/VISIBILITY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
PICKUP QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE STRONG JET ENERGY AND BETTER
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE PICTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
     114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ103>107-109-110-114>119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241759
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY...AIDING IN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE.  WITH
MOIST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OTHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY DAY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REALLY START TO CRANK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL CLIMB OVER 60 METERS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTING LATE.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...A HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CASPER TO CRAIG
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE WELL OVER 60 METERS...QUITE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LIKELY HIGH WIND EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
MAIN BULK OF THE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONTINUED QUITE WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WED WITH THE JET SHIFTING EAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ANTICIPATED ON WED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. RESIDUAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY RETREATING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT INHERITED BLOWING SNOW GOING FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TUESDAY NT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SFC...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AND RESULTANT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S WEST BOTH DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DROPPING SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES. 00Z GFS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME LT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DGW-CDR SATURDAY NT. THIS IS UNSUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHICH TAF SITES WILL GET
IMPACTED BY THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW JUST NORTH OF
CHEYENNE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW JUST NORTH OF CHADRON. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE CHEYENNE TAF SITE WILL SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM THE
SNOWFALL AT THE TAF SITE. HOWEVER...YOU WILL NOT HAVE FLY TOO FAR
EAST BEFORE THE VISIBILITY WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND CEILINGS
DROP TO BELOW 1KFT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO MEANWHILE...CHADRON TAF
SITE MAY SEE THE CEILINGS/VISIBILITY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
PICKUP QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE STRONG JET ENERGY AND BETTER
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE PICTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
     114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ103>107-109-110-114>119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241203
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY...AIDING IN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE.  WITH
MOIST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OTHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY DAY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REALLY START TO CRANK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL CLIMB OVER 60 METERS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTING LATE.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...A HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CASPER TO CRAIG
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE WELL OVER 60 METERS...QUITE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LIKELY HIGH WIND EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
MAIN BULK OF THE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONTINUED QUITE WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WED WITH THE JET SHIFTING EAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ANTICIPATED ON WED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. RESIDUAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY RETREATING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT INHERITED BLOWING SNOW GOING FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TUESDAY NT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SFC...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AND RESULTANT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S WEST BOTH DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DROPPING SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES. 00Z GFS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME LT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DGW-CDR SATURDAY NT. THIS IS UNSUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ITS PASSAGE WILL CARRY TWO IMPACTS ON THIS SET OF TAFS.
FIRSTLY...EXPECT PERIDIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THESE SHOULD BE PRETTY BRIEF IN DURATION...BUT MAY DROP CONDITIONS
TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST OF THIS OCCURING AT KLAR THRU
16Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT AT SITES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THO 16-01Z EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...THUS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS
COMMON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
     114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ103>107-109-110-114>119.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241203
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY...AIDING IN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE.  WITH
MOIST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OTHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY DAY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REALLY START TO CRANK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL CLIMB OVER 60 METERS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTING LATE.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...A HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CASPER TO CRAIG
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE WELL OVER 60 METERS...QUITE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LIKELY HIGH WIND EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
MAIN BULK OF THE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONTINUED QUITE WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WED WITH THE JET SHIFTING EAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ANTICIPATED ON WED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. RESIDUAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY RETREATING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT INHERITED BLOWING SNOW GOING FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TUESDAY NT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SFC...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AND RESULTANT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S WEST BOTH DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DROPPING SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES. 00Z GFS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME LT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DGW-CDR SATURDAY NT. THIS IS UNSUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ITS PASSAGE WILL CARRY TWO IMPACTS ON THIS SET OF TAFS.
FIRSTLY...EXPECT PERIDIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THESE SHOULD BE PRETTY BRIEF IN DURATION...BUT MAY DROP CONDITIONS
TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST OF THIS OCCURING AT KLAR THRU
16Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT AT SITES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THO 16-01Z EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...THUS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS
COMMON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
     114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ103>107-109-110-114>119.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241103
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY...AIDING IN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE.  WITH
MOIST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OTHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY DAY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REALLY START TO CRANK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL CLIMB OVER 60 METERS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTING LATE.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...A HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CASPER TO CRAIG
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE WELL OVER 60 METERS...QUITE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LIKELY HIGH WIND EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
MAIN BULK OF THE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONTINUED QUITE WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WED WITH THE JET SHIFTING EAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ANTICIPATED ON WED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. RESIDUAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY RETREATING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT INHERITED BLOWING SNOW GOING FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TUESDAY NT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SFC...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AND RESULTANT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S WEST BOTH DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DROPPING SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES. 00Z GFS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME LT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DGW-CDR SATURDAY NT. THIS IS UNSUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WESTWARD. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LIFR OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING
RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO WINDY MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
WY AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
     114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ103>107-109-110-114>119.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...SAR




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241103
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY...AIDING IN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE.  WITH
MOIST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OTHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY DAY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REALLY START TO CRANK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL CLIMB OVER 60 METERS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTING LATE.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...A HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CASPER TO CRAIG
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE WELL OVER 60 METERS...QUITE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LIKELY HIGH WIND EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
MAIN BULK OF THE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONTINUED QUITE WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WED WITH THE JET SHIFTING EAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ANTICIPATED ON WED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. RESIDUAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY RETREATING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT INHERITED BLOWING SNOW GOING FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TUESDAY NT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SFC...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AND RESULTANT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S WEST BOTH DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DROPPING SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES. 00Z GFS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME LT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DGW-CDR SATURDAY NT. THIS IS UNSUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WESTWARD. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LIFR OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING
RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO WINDY MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
WY AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
     114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ103>107-109-110-114>119.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...SAR





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240426
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
926 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS/NAM 700MB WINDS PEAK 40-45 KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. THE 00Z MESOETA CRAIG-CASPER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
AT 850MB DECREASED FROM 59 TO 55M WITH 700MB GRADIENT 45-50M.
WHILE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR...THE THREAT FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS OF 58
MPH OR HIGHER IS MARGINAL AT BEST. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR ARLINGTON AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SNOWFALL INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WESTWARD. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LIFR OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING
RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO WINDY MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
WY AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240426
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
926 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS/NAM 700MB WINDS PEAK 40-45 KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. THE 00Z MESOETA CRAIG-CASPER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
AT 850MB DECREASED FROM 59 TO 55M WITH 700MB GRADIENT 45-50M.
WHILE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR...THE THREAT FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS OF 58
MPH OR HIGHER IS MARGINAL AT BEST. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR ARLINGTON AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SNOWFALL INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WESTWARD. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LIFR OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING
RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO WINDY MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
WY AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 240426
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
926 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS/NAM 700MB WINDS PEAK 40-45 KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. THE 00Z MESOETA CRAIG-CASPER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
AT 850MB DECREASED FROM 59 TO 55M WITH 700MB GRADIENT 45-50M.
WHILE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR...THE THREAT FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS OF 58
MPH OR HIGHER IS MARGINAL AT BEST. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR ARLINGTON AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SNOWFALL INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WESTWARD. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LIFR OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING
RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO WINDY MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
WY AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240426
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
926 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS/NAM 700MB WINDS PEAK 40-45 KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. THE 00Z MESOETA CRAIG-CASPER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
AT 850MB DECREASED FROM 59 TO 55M WITH 700MB GRADIENT 45-50M.
WHILE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR...THE THREAT FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS OF 58
MPH OR HIGHER IS MARGINAL AT BEST. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR ARLINGTON AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SNOWFALL INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
WESTWARD. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS
AND INCREASE THE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LIFR OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING
RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO WINDY MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
WY AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 232344 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
342 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KLAR AND KRWL WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR WYZ110-116.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 232344 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
342 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KLAR AND KRWL WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR WYZ110-116.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 232242
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
342 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LLVL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. ANOTHER WINDY DAY MONDAY
EARLY MORNING FOR KLAR AND KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR WYZ110-116.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 232242
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
342 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LLVL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. ANOTHER WINDY DAY MONDAY
EARLY MORNING FOR KLAR AND KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR WYZ110-116.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 232242
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
342 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LLVL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. ANOTHER WINDY DAY MONDAY
EARLY MORNING FOR KLAR AND KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR WYZ110-116.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 232144
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
244 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT STORM TOTAL SNOW ALREADY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. DID ADJUST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES SINCE A FEW
PLACES MAY SEE CLOSE TO 30 INCHES BY LATE MONDAY. ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WYOMING LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING LATE
TONIGHT. LLVL WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA AND
THE I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. DO NOT BELIEVE I25
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME AROUND SINCE MODELS SHOW
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINING STEADY OR INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO
RECEIVE THE HIGHER GUSTS THIS TIME AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTO COLORADO.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
140 KNOT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE JET STREAM
ITSELF TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG
TERM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOT A GOOD
TRAVEL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY EVENING...GOING TO BE REALLY WINDY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS 700MB WINDS 75 TO 80KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. ECMWF 700MB WINDS A
BIT LOWER...BUT STILL IN THE 50 TO 60KT RANGE...SO CHANCES ARE
STILL REALLY GOOD FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND
PRONE AREAS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT ENDS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL SHOWS BOTH
850 AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WELL ABOVE 60MTRS.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN TUESDAY NIGHTS FORECAST...GFS SETS UP A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD BE DUE
TO UPSLOPING OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS GOING TO LAY IN THE AREA.
ECMWF MUCH LESS ON QPF AMOUNTS. WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION COME TRUE...THIS SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVER TO PROBABLY ARLINGTON
OR SO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DID ADD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHAT WINTER HEADLINES TO ISSUE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO CONTINUE AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 700MB WINDS WELL ABOVE 50KTS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CONTINUED WINDY...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE
WILL SEE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PRONE AREAS COULD STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OUT BY ARLINGTON ON
INTERSTATE 80. FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID 40S
COMMON.

STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA. GFS MUCH
FASTER ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVING THE
FRONT INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL UP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
BUST DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A HEDGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST HRRR FORECAST USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOME CONCERN FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS FOR KRWL AND KLAR AS SEEN IN THE HRRR
SOLUTION. BUT THESE BANDS ARE VERY NARROW AND IT WOULD BE ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF THESE BANDS. DO BELIEVE MOST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF KLAR AND KRWL THIS
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT LOWER CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR BOTH
SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR WYZ110-116.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231652
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
952 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW...AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...PROGGED GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN FLOW ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS.

MONDAY NIGHT...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUE THEIR MASSIVE DISCREPENCIES THEREAFTER.
MORE ON THAT LATER. LETS TALK ABOUT THE PART OF THE FORECAST THAT
CARRIES THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH THE NOSE OF AN 160+
KNOT H3 JET MOVING OVERHEAD. TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT AND
PROGD H7 WINDS OF OF 60-70 KNOTS WILL MAKE TUESDAY ANOTHER WIND DAY.
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN TIME ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF LENTICULAR CLOUD COVER AND CORRESPONDING MIXING.
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL BE A NEAR CERTAINTY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINES WITH ACCELERATING LLVL FLOW. ANOTHER 4
TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
HEADLINE OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MORE MILD AS WELL. FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE JET TRANSLATES EAST AND
BEGINS FLATTENING. OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART.

AND NOW FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT CONTINUES FOR THANKSGIVING. IF YOU
RECALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS SHOWED A COOLER/WETTER GFS
COMPARED TO MILD AND DRY ECMWF. WELL TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY
FLIP FLOPED. NOW THE ECMWF SHOWS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BACKING IN
EARLY THURSDAY AND SNOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THRU THE
PERIOD. TO ILLUSTRATE THE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER...GFS MOS FORECASTS A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63F FOR THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS
34F. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY LOW FOR
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STEERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO FOR THANKSGIVING AND KEPT THINGS DRY. IN
EITHER CASE...COLD AIR RETREATS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MODELS
HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST HRRR FORECAST USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOME CONCERN FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS FOR KRWL AND KLAR AS SEEN IN THE HRRR
SOLUTION. BUT THESE BANDS ARE VERY NARROW AND IT WOULD BE ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF THESE BANDS. DO BELIEVE MOST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF KLAR AND KRWL THIS
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT LOWER CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR BOTH
SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231652
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
952 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW...AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...PROGGED GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN FLOW ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS.

MONDAY NIGHT...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUE THEIR MASSIVE DISCREPENCIES THEREAFTER.
MORE ON THAT LATER. LETS TALK ABOUT THE PART OF THE FORECAST THAT
CARRIES THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH THE NOSE OF AN 160+
KNOT H3 JET MOVING OVERHEAD. TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT AND
PROGD H7 WINDS OF OF 60-70 KNOTS WILL MAKE TUESDAY ANOTHER WIND DAY.
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN TIME ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF LENTICULAR CLOUD COVER AND CORRESPONDING MIXING.
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL BE A NEAR CERTAINTY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINES WITH ACCELERATING LLVL FLOW. ANOTHER 4
TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
HEADLINE OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MORE MILD AS WELL. FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE JET TRANSLATES EAST AND
BEGINS FLATTENING. OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART.

AND NOW FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT CONTINUES FOR THANKSGIVING. IF YOU
RECALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS SHOWED A COOLER/WETTER GFS
COMPARED TO MILD AND DRY ECMWF. WELL TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY
FLIP FLOPED. NOW THE ECMWF SHOWS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BACKING IN
EARLY THURSDAY AND SNOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THRU THE
PERIOD. TO ILLUSTRATE THE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER...GFS MOS FORECASTS A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63F FOR THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS
34F. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY LOW FOR
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STEERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO FOR THANKSGIVING AND KEPT THINGS DRY. IN
EITHER CASE...COLD AIR RETREATS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MODELS
HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST HRRR FORECAST USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOME CONCERN FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS FOR KRWL AND KLAR AS SEEN IN THE HRRR
SOLUTION. BUT THESE BANDS ARE VERY NARROW AND IT WOULD BE ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF THESE BANDS. DO BELIEVE MOST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH OF KLAR AND KRWL THIS
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT LOWER CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR BOTH
SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 231230
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW...AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...PROGGED GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN FLOW ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS.

MONDAY NIGHT...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUE THEIR MASSIVE DISCREPENCIES THEREAFTER.
MORE ON THAT LATER. LETS TALK ABOUT THE PART OF THE FORECAST THAT
CARRIES THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH THE NOSE OF AN 160+
KNOT H3 JET MOVING OVERHEAD. TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT AND
PROGD H7 WINDS OF OF 60-70 KNOTS WILL MAKE TUESDAY ANOTHER WIND DAY.
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN TIME ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF LENTICULAR CLOUD COVER AND CORRESPONDING MIXING.
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL BE A NEAR CERTAINTY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINES WITH ACCELERATING LLVL FLOW. ANOTHER 4
TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
HEADLINE OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MORE MILD AS WELL. FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE JET TRANSLATES EAST AND
BEGINS FLATTENING. OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART.

AND NOW FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT CONTINUES FOR THANKSGIVING. IF YOU
RECALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS SHOWED A COOLER/WETTER GFS
COMPARED TO MILD AND DRY ECMWF. WELL TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY
FLIP FLOPED. NOW THE ECMWF SHOWS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BACKING IN
EARLY THURSDAY AND SNOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THRU THE
PERIOD. TO ILLUSTRATE THE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER...GFS MOS FORECASTS A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63F FOR THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS
34F. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY LOW FOR
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STEERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO FOR THANKSGIVING AND KEPT THINGS DRY. IN
EITHER CASE...COLD AIR RETREATS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MODELS
HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KRWL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER ON
THE GUSTY WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. AIRFIELDS
IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY LESSER WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE JUST
SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAY FROM THE MTNS TODAY. SE WYOMING
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN BE OBSCURED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231230
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW...AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...PROGGED GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN FLOW ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS.

MONDAY NIGHT...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT TO OUR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUE THEIR MASSIVE DISCREPENCIES THEREAFTER.
MORE ON THAT LATER. LETS TALK ABOUT THE PART OF THE FORECAST THAT
CARRIES THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WITH THE NOSE OF AN 160+
KNOT H3 JET MOVING OVERHEAD. TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT AND
PROGD H7 WINDS OF OF 60-70 KNOTS WILL MAKE TUESDAY ANOTHER WIND DAY.
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN TIME ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF LENTICULAR CLOUD COVER AND CORRESPONDING MIXING.
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL BE A NEAR CERTAINTY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINES WITH ACCELERATING LLVL FLOW. ANOTHER 4
TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
HEADLINE OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MORE MILD AS WELL. FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE JET TRANSLATES EAST AND
BEGINS FLATTENING. OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART.

AND NOW FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT CONTINUES FOR THANKSGIVING. IF YOU
RECALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS SHOWED A COOLER/WETTER GFS
COMPARED TO MILD AND DRY ECMWF. WELL TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE COMPLETELY
FLIP FLOPED. NOW THE ECMWF SHOWS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BACKING IN
EARLY THURSDAY AND SNOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THRU THE
PERIOD. TO ILLUSTRATE THE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER...GFS MOS FORECASTS A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63F FOR THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS
34F. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY LOW FOR
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE STEERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO FOR THANKSGIVING AND KEPT THINGS DRY. IN
EITHER CASE...COLD AIR RETREATS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MODELS
HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KRWL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER ON
THE GUSTY WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. AIRFIELDS
IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY LESSER WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE JUST
SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAY FROM THE MTNS TODAY. SE WYOMING
MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN BE OBSCURED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 231219
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW...AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...PROGGED GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN FLOW ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE FIELDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT TO OUR EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL OR NO CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED LUNCH AND THE FOOD WAS
EXQUISITE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 231219
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN EARNEST TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW...AND THUS WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE. FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...PROGGED GRADIENTS SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN FLOW ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE FIELDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT TO OUR EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINIMAL OR NO CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED LUNCH AND THE FOOD WAS
EXQUISITE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 230544
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1044 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAS ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY
FOR THE RAWLINS/SARATOGA AREAS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME LATER SUNDAY
MORNING ELSEWHERE. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 230544
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1044 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAS ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY
FOR THE RAWLINS/SARATOGA AREAS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME LATER SUNDAY
MORNING ELSEWHERE. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 230437
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
935 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAS ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 230437
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
935 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAS ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 230437
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
935 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAS ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 230437
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
935 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAS ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 230435
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
935 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAVE ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 230435
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
935 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAVE ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 230435
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
935 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WINDS PER SURFACE/HIGHWAY OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND...AND THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT HAVE ENDED. THUS HAVE CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH RIVERTON AND CASPER AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
VERIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 76 MPH REPORTED
ALONG I25 AND I80. ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED ACROSS
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDY SKIES AND AN AREA OF POSITIVE OMEGA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING OUT FOR THESE
AREAS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 55
MPH SINCE DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
SINCE THE FRONT AND IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND SHOULD BE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL END THE HIGH WIND EVENT BRIEFLY FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEYS. SNOW
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. ANY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WELL
RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL DO WELL WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING THROUGH MONDAY FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG I80
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG I80 AROUND
DOUGLAS. THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY INCLUDING MOST
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
DUE TO THE LARGE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO BRIEF FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE ADJACENT VALLEYS ACROSS SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 5 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
1041MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A ROUGHLY 10-12MB SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN CASPER AND CRAIG.
700MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 50-60KTS WITH A 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND 70 TO 80 MARS BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. ALMOST A
SURE THING FOR WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND HAVE BUMPED UP GUIDANCE AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REFLECT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS.

WINDS LOOK TO FINALLY EASE SOME THURSDAY AS WE SEE A FRONT DIVE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND LAY UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...FINALLY PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUR EASTERN ZONES TO REFLECT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY INVOF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS
WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




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