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000
FXUS65 KCYS 030540
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1140 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING BUT INSTABILITY PRETTY LOW. MAINLY DRY AND COOL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA OTHERWISE.

NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 7H TEMPS
RISE ABOUT 4C EACH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO ABOUT 5-10C BY LATE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY...AND INTO THE
70S WEDS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY...SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH 60S/70S WEST
AND 70S/80S EAST FOR THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE MEANS FOR PRECIP HOWEVER A FEW
MOUNTAIN T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND UP INTO WYOMING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME. COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT. A RESURGENCE OF GOOD LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL
CLOSELY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW.  TEMPS STILL LOOK WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SO MAINTAINED 40-60
POPS ON SATURDAY...WITH 30S FOR SUNDAY AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CIGS WITH BASES OF 5-10 THOUSAND FEET ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH 09Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NON-
CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL FUELS. A
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 022333
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING BUT INSTABILITY PRETTY LOW. MAINLY DRY AND COOL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA OTHERWISE.

NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 7H TEMPS
RISE ABOUT 4C EACH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO ABOUT 5-10C BY LATE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY...AND INTO THE
70S WEDS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY...SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH 60S/70S WEST
AND 70S/80S EAST FOR THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE MEANS FOR PRECIP HOWEVER A FEW
MOUNTAIN T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND UP INTO WYOMING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME. COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT. A RESURGENCE OF GOOD LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL
CLOSELY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW.  TEMPS STILL LOOK WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SO MAINTAINED 40-60
POPS ON SATURDAY...WITH 30S FOR SUNDAY AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH NOON TUESDAY)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. CLOUD
BASES WILL DROP BETWEEN 5000-10000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN AT KAIA AFTER 02Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG
DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NON-
CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL FUELS. A
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 022106
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING BUT INSTABILITY PRETTY LOW. MAINLY DRY AND COOL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA OTHERWISE.

NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 7H TEMPS
RISE ABOUT 4C EACH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO ABOUT 5-10C BY LATE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY...AND INTO THE
70S WEDS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY...SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH 60S/70S WEST
AND 70S/80S EAST FOR THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE MEANS FOR PRECIP HOWEVER A FEW
MOUNTAIN T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND UP INTO WYOMING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME. COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT. A RESURGENCE OF GOOD LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL
CLOSELY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW.  TEMPS STILL LOOK WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SO MAINTAINED 40-60
POPS ON SATURDAY...WITH 30S FOR SUNDAY AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MID-
LEVEL CUMULUS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUD BASES WILL DROP TO ROUGHLY 5000-10000FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS IS
LOW...BUT COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KAIA AFTER 02Z. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NON-
CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL FUELS. A
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 021751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOOKING AT A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY REACHING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK
SOUTHWARD. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SHORTWAVE
THAT COULD PRODUCE COLD AIR FUNNELS GIVEN A COLD CORE ALOFT BUT
BASED ON TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME GRAUPLE
OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING TREND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRETCH ALONG THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE WEATHER WILL START OUT PLEASANT AND MILD ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND LOW 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONVECTION AND WIND ON THURSDAY. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND BETTER LLVL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL
BE BETTER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (GFS HAS LI VALUES NEAR -3C).
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LLVL UPSLOPE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND...SO HAVE POPS RISING INTO THE 40-60
PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MID-
LEVEL CUMULUS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. CLOUD BASES WILL DROP TO ROUGHLY 5000-10000FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS IS
LOW...BUT COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AT KAIA AFTER 02Z. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY
AND WARMER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. BY MIDWEEK DAYTIME
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
SHOULD SEE RAPID GREEN UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AND NEXT.
ANOTHER LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THAT AREA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 021150
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOOKING AT A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY REACHING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK
SOUTHWARD. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SHORTWAVE
THAT COULD PRODUCE COLD AIR FUNNELS GIVEN A COLD CORE ALOFT BUT
BASED ON TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME GRAUPLE
OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING TREND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRETCH ALONG THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE WEATHER WILL START OUT PLEASANT AND MILD ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND LOW 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONVECTION AND WIND ON THURSDAY. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND BETTER LLVL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL
BE BETTER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (GFS HAS LI VALUES NEAR -3C).
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LLVL UPSLOPE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND...SO HAVE POPS RISING INTO THE 40-60
PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000-10000 FT ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CDR/AIA.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY
AND WARMER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. BY MIDWEEK DAYTIME
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
SHOULD SEE RAPID GREEN UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AND NEXT.
ANOTHER LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THAT AREA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 021150
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOOKING AT A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY REACHING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK
SOUTHWARD. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SHORTWAVE
THAT COULD PRODUCE COLD AIR FUNNELS GIVEN A COLD CORE ALOFT BUT
BASED ON TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME GRAUPLE
OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING TREND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRETCH ALONG THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE WEATHER WILL START OUT PLEASANT AND MILD ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND LOW 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONVECTION AND WIND ON THURSDAY. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND BETTER LLVL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL
BE BETTER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (GFS HAS LI VALUES NEAR -3C).
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LLVL UPSLOPE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND...SO HAVE POPS RISING INTO THE 40-60
PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000-10000 FT ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CDR/AIA.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY
AND WARMER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. BY MIDWEEK DAYTIME
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
SHOULD SEE RAPID GREEN UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AND NEXT.
ANOTHER LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THAT AREA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 020934
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOOKING AT A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY REACHING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK
SOUTHWARD. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SHORTWAVE
THAT COULD PRODUCE COLD AIR FUNNELS GIVEN A COLD CORE ALOFT BUT
BASED ON TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME GRAUPLE
OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING TREND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRETCH ALONG THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE WEATHER WILL START OUT PLEASANT AND MILD ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND LOW 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONVECTION AND WIND ON THURSDAY. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND BETTER LLVL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL
BE BETTER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (GFS HAS LI VALUES NEAR -3C).
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LLVL UPSLOPE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND...SO HAVE POPS RISING INTO THE 40-60
PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SNY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT AIA BY THE EARLY EVENING ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY
AND WARMER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. BY MIDWEEK DAYTIME
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
SHOULD SEE RAPID GREEN UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AND NEXT.
ANOTHER LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THAT AREA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 020556
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SNY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT AIA BY THE EARLY EVENING ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 020556
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SNY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT AIA BY THE EARLY EVENING ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 012338
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NOT MANY CONCERNS THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND
MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CDR/AIA TAF SITES LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 012024
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
224 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 011753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.
WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WEEK. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 011141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.
WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH 16-18Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY
THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH MID
MORNING AT CYS AND SNY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WEEK. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 011141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.
WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH 16-18Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY
THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH MID
MORNING AT CYS AND SNY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WEEK. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 011006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
406 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING BUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
ZERO. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY...SUCH THAT BY THIS EVENING THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SUNSHINE AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY. FOR MONDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER AND NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AND THURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER WYOMING/COLORADO BY WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C.  EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY
THURS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND THURS AFTNS.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRI THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD UTAH ON SAT.  IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY.  THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS ON THAT AFTN/EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...HOWEVER VIS
REDUCTIONS FROM THE SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WET. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNLIKELY THOUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 010545
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1145 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOWS THE LAST BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW/RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THIS LAST BAND
DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...HOWEVER VIS
REDUCTIONS FROM THE SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 010108
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
708 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOWS THE LAST BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW/RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THIS LAST BAND
DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT KRWL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z-18Z SUN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 302345
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
545 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT KRWL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z-18Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 302115
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH ENDING TIMES FOR HEADLINES AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. MOSAIC
RADAR SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND EVENTUALLY HERE TO
CHEYENNE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING
NOTE...CHADRON NEVER DID TURN OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THIS WHOLE
EVENT...WHILE IT SNOWED ALL DAY AT ALLIANCE. THERE IS AN ELEVATION
DIFFERENCE OF 600 FEET BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. LATEST WYDOT
ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 59 AT ELK MOUNTAIN ON I-80 TO 40
UP ON THE SUMMIT.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
TROWAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID KEEP THE
PANHANDLE IN CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS WHEN WE APPROACH SUNSET TO SEE IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RETURN.

NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WE STAY IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. KEPT INHERITED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN IN
THE MID LEVELS. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING
MONDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6 AND
9 DEG C WILL BE COMMON BY MIDWEEK...LIKELY SUPPORTING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF KEEPS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTACT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS IS FOR A STORMY
WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VIGOROUS...CLOSED
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
ON FRI OR SAT AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS
EARLY AS SUN MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT IT IS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. YET
AGAIN THOUGH...FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW...WE COULD VERY WELL BE
LOOKING AT A WINTRY MOTHERS DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN FLYING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY WITH A DRIER
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL NO FIRE CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20
TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 301747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT SUCH PLACES AS ALLIANCE AND
HEMINGFORD OUT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. GOING TO
GET MORE SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO GET
A MIXTURE. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TOUGH CALL AS IT IS STILL RAINING IN
CHADRON...SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS VERY IMPORTANT OUT THERE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SEVERAL MORE INCHES CONTINUING THIS
MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TODAY PERIOD AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TREND IS DECREASING
BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE CHADRON IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN...SO AS EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BE LARGELY
ELEVATION DRIVEN AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. IN
FACT SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BASED ON ASOS OBSERVATIONS...THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE IN LAGER
PART BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE AND OTHER RIDGE TOPS. EVEN SHOULD SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COME IN WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLUSHY TO
SNOW COVERED. BY MID MORNING THE LATE APRIL SUN WILL WARM THE
ROADS ENOUGH TO MELT MOST ALL SNOW OFF OF THE ROADS. THEREFORE THE
MAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE ON GRASSY AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 OVER MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY BUT CONSIDERING THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
STICKY...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW DAYS RESPITE FROM THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
CWA IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURING UPPER LOWS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING 70 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANGES
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SW CONUS. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DECENT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN FLYING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A COLD SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     102-106>108-118-119.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 301427
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
827 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT SUCH PLACES AS ALLIANCE AND
HEMINGFORD OUT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. GOING TO
GET MORE SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO GET
A MIXTURE. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TOUGH CALL AS IT IS STILL RAINING IN
CHADRON...SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS VERY IMPORTANT OUT THERE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SEVERAL MORE INCHES CONTINUING THIS
MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TODAY PERIOD AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TREND IS DECREASING
BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE CHADRON IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN...SO AS EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BE LARGELY
ELEVATION DRIVEN AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. IN
FACT SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BASED ON ASOS OBSERVATIONS...THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE IN LAGER
PART BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE AND OTHER RIDGE TOPS. EVEN SHOULD SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COME IN WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLUSHY TO
SNOW COVERED. BY MID MORNING THE LATE APRIL SUN WILL WARM THE
ROADS ENOUGH TO MELT MOST ALL SNOW OFF OF THE ROADS. THEREFORE THE
MAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE ON GRASSY AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 OVER MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY BUT CONSIDERING THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
STICKY...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW DAYS RESPITE FROM THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
CWA IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURING UPPER LOWS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING 70 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANGES
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SW CONUS. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DECENT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A COLD SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     102-106>108-118-119.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 301011
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TODAY PERIOD AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TREND IS DECREASING
BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE CHADRON IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN...SO AS EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BE LARGELY
ELEVATION DRIVEN AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. IN
FACT SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BASED ON ASOS OBSERVATIONS...THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE IN LAGER
PART BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE AND OTHER RIDGE TOPS. EVEN SHOULD SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COME IN WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLUSHY TO
SNOW COVERED. BY MID MORNING THE LATE APRIL SUN WILL WARM THE
ROADS ENOUGH TO MELT MOST ALL SNOW OFF OF THE ROADS. THEREFORE THE
MAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE ON GRASSY AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 OVER MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY BUT CONSIDERING THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
STICKY...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW DAYS RESPITE FROM THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
CWA IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURING UPPER LOWS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING 70 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANGES
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SW CONUS. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DECENT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THAT
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A COLD SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     102-106>108-118-119.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-
     003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML





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