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000
FXUS65 KCYS 292346 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
546 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE RELEASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FEW PATCHES OF LLVL CU ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT THIS HOUR WHILE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS OVERALL ARE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT
WEST. OBS SHOW GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THINK THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
RIGHT NOW KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER
A THIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS
LARAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WHILE SOME ENHANCEMENT IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
TOWERING CU DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE
REGIONS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

THE DEEPEST PORTION OF THE MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALTHO SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO CLIP THE
AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S-50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS SO COULD SEE A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND PUSH EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WAA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL KEEP
THIS ACTIVITY WEAK...WHILE TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY BELOW
0.5 INCHES...THUS CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY LIMITED AND THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS WILL CONTINUE. WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...HIGHS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
TUES. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG...THE ECMWF
INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WYOMING WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
FOR NOW AS THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS ALTHOUGH MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTN TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

BREEZY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FOR ALL FORECAST SITES BY
03Z...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS CHEYENNE TO SCOTTSBLUFF
AND ALLIANCE...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...BUT CHANCES SO LOW AT THIS
POINT DIDN`T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION THAT FAR
OUT IN THE TAFS EVEN FOR A VCNTY MENTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
GUSTS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 MPH AND AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 MPH.
ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS...EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS WITH 20 PERCENT READINGS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE ON THURSDAY...AND FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 292049
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FEW PATCHES OF LLVL CU ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT THIS HOUR WHILE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS OVERALL ARE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT
WEST. OBS SHOW GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THINK THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
RIGHT NOW KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER
A THIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS
LARAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WHILE SOME ENHANCEMENT IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
TOWERING CU DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE
REGIONS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

THE DEEPEST PORTION OF THE MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALTHO SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO CLIP THE
AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S-50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS SO COULD SEE A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND PUSH EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WAA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL KEEP
THIS ACTIVITY WEAK...WHILE TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY BELOW
0.5 INCHES...THUS CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY LIMITED AND THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS WILL CONTINUE. WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...HIGHS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
TUES. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG...THE ECMWF
INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WYOMING WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
FOR NOW AS THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS ALTHOUGH MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTN TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
GUSTS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 MPH AND AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 MPH.
ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS...EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS WITH 20 PERCENT READINGS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE ON THURSDAY...AND FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 292049
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
249 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FEW PATCHES OF LLVL CU ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT THIS HOUR WHILE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS OVERALL ARE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT
WEST. OBS SHOW GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THINK THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
RIGHT NOW KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER
A THIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS
LARAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WHILE SOME ENHANCEMENT IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
TOWERING CU DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE
REGIONS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

THE DEEPEST PORTION OF THE MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALTHO SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO CLIP THE
AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 40S-50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS SO COULD SEE A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND PUSH EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WAA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL KEEP
THIS ACTIVITY WEAK...WHILE TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY BELOW
0.5 INCHES...THUS CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY LIMITED AND THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS WILL CONTINUE. WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...HIGHS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
TUES. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG...THE ECMWF
INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WYOMING WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
FOR NOW AS THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS ALTHOUGH MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTN TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
GUSTS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 MPH AND AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 MPH.
ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS...EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS WITH 20 PERCENT READINGS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE ON THURSDAY...AND FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
153 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY...WARMER DAY ON TAP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MODERATE
AND WARM AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL TOO DRY AT LOW AND
MID LEVELS FOR ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ALOFT. CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MODERATING AIRMASS. COULD SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROVIDING ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...TO RETARD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MAY SEE A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. NO
WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOONS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...THOUGH FORTUNATELY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290753
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
153 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY...WARMER DAY ON TAP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MODERATE
AND WARM AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL TOO DRY AT LOW AND
MID LEVELS FOR ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ALOFT. CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MODERATING AIRMASS. COULD SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROVIDING ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...TO RETARD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

WE WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 80S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MAY SEE A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. NO
WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOONS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...THOUGH FORTUNATELY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 290518
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH RESSURE OVER THE AREA. NO
WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7 PM. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE
ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290518
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH RESSURE OVER THE AREA. NO
WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7 PM. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE
ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 282335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED CU BASED NEAR 10000 FT AGL IN VICINITY OF CHEYENNE WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. FOR WEDNESDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7 PM. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE
ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 282335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED CU BASED NEAR 10000 FT AGL IN VICINITY OF CHEYENNE WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. FOR WEDNESDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7 PM. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE
ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FCSTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7
PM.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE ARE
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FCSTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7
PM.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE ARE
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281811
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281811
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. GUSTY WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. POST-FROPA WINDS HAVE
BEEN RATHER GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT LLVL COLD ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
SFC PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE COMMON BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...BUT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
RELAX A BIT AS MSLP GRADIENTS WEAKEN FROM W-E. THE DEEPEST COLD
AIR STILL LAGS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. IN
FACT...THE 07Z LAKE YELLOWSTONE OBSERVATION SHOWED A TEMPERATURE
OF 34 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT JACKSON HOLE EVEN RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN H7 TEMPS WELL BELOW 0
DEG C. FORTUNATELY (OR UN- FORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE HOPING FOR
WINTER)...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS THE
COLDEST AIR SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE WY-MT BORDER BEHIND
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT NEG TILT MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTN. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL EFFECT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN MONDAY.

VERY FEW FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM CHALLENGES
IN THE FIRE WEATHER REALM FOR TODAY. WE ARE SEEING EXTREMELY POOR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT IN FWZ 310 WHERE WINDS HAVE STAYED UP LONGER AND
PROMOTED LLVL MIXING. KCYS HAD AN RH OF 30 PCT AT 08Z...SO THINK WE
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTN AS A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED POST-FROPA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM AGREE WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 10K FEET...SO WE WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL
BE TRICKY THOUGH AS A MODEST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS A VERY MARGINAL
EVENT WITH WEAKER SUSTAINED WINDS. DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER ISSUES
TO SPEAK OF. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH H7-H3 RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS ON THU AFTN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ALL SIGNS STILL POINT
TO IT BEING EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS THOUGH AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. WITH MEAGER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...WHICH MESHES UP WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET AS FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LIKELY ACTING AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

SUNDAY...GREAT BASIN RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AGAIN...WITH
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
QUITE MEAGER.

MONDAY...GFS PROGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. GUSTY WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 310 WHERE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN POOR. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280647
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1247 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN GUSTING AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280220
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
820 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280220
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
820 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280220
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
820 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED THIS EVENINGS FORECAST TO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SINCE TSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. A FEW OF
THESE TSTORMS WERE SEVERE WITH UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF/TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 272119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
319 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS
SUPPORTIVE A RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICUALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TOMORROW BUT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS. &&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     306-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
319 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST NAEFS/GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING US
REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETTING
SUPPRESSED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF IN
NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT WYOMING ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH MAY FAVOR US IN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK EXCEPT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY COULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS
SUPPORTIVE A RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICUALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TOMORROW BUT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS. &&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     306-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 271731
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTREME RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FUELS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 306 (UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN) HAVE BECOME
CRITICAL AND THIS ZONE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
RH VALUES AND WINDS IN ZONE 310 WILL BE MORE MARGINAL NEAR THE SFC
TROUGH...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THEM IN THE WARNING. THE THREAT FOR A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORM IS STILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE RUC SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1250
J/KG BY LATE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
     306-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND 50 KT WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND 50 KT WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 270908
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
308 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY
FROM CHADRON TO SIDNEY EASTWARD. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 270908
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
308 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH
25 TO 35 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY
FROM CHADRON TO SIDNEY EASTWARD. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 270719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
119 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE AREA
OF 2-4 INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A KIMBALL TO BROADWATER LINE FROM THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
WITH GOOD LLVL SATURATION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR WEST AS CYS...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S AMID SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A DRY LINE PUSHING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRY LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED. OUT
WEST IN CARBON COUNTY...GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT RAWLINS
AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE DOWN BY DIXON. DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR FWZ 304 THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500MBS MONDAY WITH FORECAST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OF 45-50KTS.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. PROBABLY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN MONDAY. FORECAST MIN HUMIDITIES OF 7
TO 15 PERCENT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES TO WARNINGS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED RECEPTIVE.

WHILE DEALING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. NAM FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AROUND 2000J/KG.
FORECAST SHEAR 0-6KM AROUND 33KTS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS A DRY WESTERLY
MIDLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA.  TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOL...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 10-15
PERCENT OVER CARBON COUNTY.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCES CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR THURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  700-
500MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PW VALUES REMAINING 0.25-0.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY STYMIED IN
THIS PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON ALL AFTNS...THE WEAK GRADIENTS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY WITH WINDS EASING TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY. EXPECT POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 270719
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
119 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE AREA
OF 2-4 INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A KIMBALL TO BROADWATER LINE FROM THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
WITH GOOD LLVL SATURATION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR WEST AS CYS...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S AMID SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A DRY LINE PUSHING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRY LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED. OUT
WEST IN CARBON COUNTY...GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT RAWLINS
AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE DOWN BY DIXON. DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR FWZ 304 THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500MBS MONDAY WITH FORECAST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OF 45-50KTS.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. PROBABLY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN MONDAY. FORECAST MIN HUMIDITIES OF 7
TO 15 PERCENT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES TO WARNINGS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED RECEPTIVE.

WHILE DEALING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. NAM FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AROUND 2000J/KG.
FORECAST SHEAR 0-6KM AROUND 33KTS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS A DRY WESTERLY
MIDLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA.  TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOL...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 10-15
PERCENT OVER CARBON COUNTY.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCES CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR THURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  700-
500MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PW VALUES REMAINING 0.25-0.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY STYMIED IN
THIS PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON ALL AFTNS...THE WEAK GRADIENTS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY WITH WINDS EASING TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY. EXPECT POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




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