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000
FXUS65 KCYS 250637
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1237 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORDS IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GOOD
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY ABNORMAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT 700MB.
WE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TREND TOMORROW...BUT IT
APPEARS LIKE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS DOMINATE AS IT WAS
TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE LEE SIDE TROF SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WE KEPT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND FAVOR SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO BIG CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COST MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHERE
THE MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
LARGELY SHEARED APART SYSTEM WITH ONLY FRAGMENTS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED
WAVE BUT KEEP THE MAIN FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. EITHER WAY NO BIG CONCERNS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MILD ENOUGH THAT THE ONLY REAL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEEKENDS WAVE
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EAST. LOOKS
LIKE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR. RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS PREVAIL
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 22 TO 28 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AERODROMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CREATED VERY LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRES IN THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE
THE CRITERIA WILL FALL JUST SHORT FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCHING WITH
REGARDS TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
BIT LIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPING. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...REC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 242331
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
531 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORDS IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GOOD
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY ABNORMAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT 700MB.
WE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TREND TOMORROW...BUT IT
APPEARS LIKE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS DOMINATE AS IT WAS
TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE LEE SIDE TROF SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WE KEPT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND FAVOR SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO BIG CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COST MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHERE
THE MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
LARGELY SHEARED APART SYSTEM WITH ONLY FRAGMENTS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED
WAVE BUT KEEP THE MAIN FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. EITHER WAY NO BIG CONCERNS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MILD ENOUGH THAT THE ONLY REAL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEEKENDS WAVE
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EAST. LOOKS
LIKE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR AREA TERMINALS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SITES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE KRWL
AND KLAR REMAIN SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CREATED VERY LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRES IN THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE
THE CRITERIA WILL FALL JUST SHORT FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCHING WITH
REGARDS TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
BIT LIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPING. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...REC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 242205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
405 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORDS IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GOOD
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY ABNORMAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT 700MB.
WE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TREND TOMORROW...BUT IT
APPEARS LIKE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS DOMINATE AS IT WAS
TODAY. THE MAIN REASON IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE LEE SIDE TROF SOMEWHAT
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WE KEPT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND FAVOR SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WHICH MAY TEND TO OFFSET THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO BIG CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COST MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHERE
THE MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
LARGELY SHEARED APART SYSTEM WITH ONLY FRAGMENTS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED
WAVE BUT KEEP THE MAIN FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. EITHER WAY NO BIG CONCERNS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MILD ENOUGH THAT THE ONLY REAL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEEKENDS WAVE
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EAST. LOOKS
LIKE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE AT RWL THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MOST OF THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE MIXING POTENTIAL AT CYS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINGS HAVE BEEN MIXING FAIRLY WELL OUT
TOWARDS RWL WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24HRS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE INVERSION SETS IN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CREATED VERY LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRES IN THE PANHANDLE...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE
THE CRITERIA WILL FALL JUST SHORT FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCHING WITH
REGARDS TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
BIT LIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPING. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241755
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1155 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE AT RWL THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MOST OF THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE MIXING POTENTIAL AT CYS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINGS HAVE BEEN MIXING FAIRLY WELL OUT
TOWARDS RWL WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24HRS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE INVERSION SETS IN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...WFOCYS
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241142
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
542 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 32 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS DECREASING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240842
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
242 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240459
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240459
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR





000
FXUS65 KCYS 240015
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
615 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER MOVING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRFIELDS 15-16Z
ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR





000
FXUS65 KCYS 232050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...WFOUNR
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR






000
FXUS65 KCYS 231727
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN A
LITTLE THICKER CIRRUS. THIS WILL CUT BACK TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PACNW THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8C THOUGH...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING
THIS FRONT WILL DO THOUGH IS PICK UP OUR WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 50MTRS ON THE GFS. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...BUT WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8 TO +10C. COULD SEE SOME 80 HIGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH LOW 70S OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR
THIS SEASON BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. CURRENTLY...STILL
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING
AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WINDS. CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS
3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SINCE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DURING THE DAY.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS ZONAL. PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO KEPT POP ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. EVEN IF THE 00Z
GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...WFOUNR
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 231548
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
948 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN A
LITTLE THICKER CIRRUS. THIS WILL CUT BACK TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PACNW THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8C THOUGH...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING
THIS FRONT WILL DO THOUGH IS PICK UP OUR WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 50MTRS ON THE GFS. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...BUT WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8 TO +10C. COULD SEE SOME 80 HIGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH LOW 70S OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR
THIS SEASON BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. CURRENTLY...STILL
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING
AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WINDS. CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS
3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SINCE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DURING THE DAY.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS ZONAL. PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO KEPT POP ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. EVEN IF THE 00Z
GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB






000
FXUS65 KCYS 230917
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PACNW THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8C THOUGH...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING
THIS FRONT WILL DO THOUGH IS PICK UP OUR WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 50MTRS ON THE GFS. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...BUT WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8 TO +10C. COULD SEE SOME 80 HIGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH LOW 70S OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR
THIS SEASON BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. CURRENTLY...STILL
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING
AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WINDS. CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS
3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SINCE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DURING THE DAY.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS ZONAL. PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO KEPT POP ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. EVEN IF THE 00Z
GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS65 KCYS 230243
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
843 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH EASTERN ID. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY AND WESTERN
NE. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS. FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









000
FXUS65 KCYS 222323
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
523 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 222153
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODLES TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO BIG AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML








000
FXUS65 KCYS 221529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
929 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST
NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TOWARD
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES ALONG THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY OR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THAT MATTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEST WITH 60S INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 221156
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220859
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
259 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... THE REST OF THE NIGHT PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...THOUGH VFR PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS
REPORTING VFR ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT











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