000
FXUS65 KCYS 200415
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1015 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

DESPITE THE VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES (3000-4000 J/KG) ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE
AND STRENGTHEN. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS AND MOVED INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT THEN FAILED TO INTENSIFY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT HAVE BEEN INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. STILL KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE PANHANDLE AND
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z.  STORMS HAVE BEEN
CONTINUING INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET OVER THE PAST WEEK. THERE
IS CURRENTLY ONE LONE CELL IN COLORADO TO THE SOUTH OF KIMBALL
THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRETTY STRONG OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN CARBON
COUNTY...EXTENDING TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
DRY OUT THAT WAY...RAWLINS REPORTING 6 PERCENT HUMIDITY AT 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...LARAMIE 9 PERCENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
A CAP STILL IN PLACE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE...WITH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OF -25 TO -50 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING PRETTY MUCH
CLEAR SKIES...WITH NO CU DEVELOPMENT ALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SEES A BREAK IN THE CAP. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO +16C...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE CAP WILL BE
BROKEN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST DOES SHOW A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
ACROSS GOSHEN COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...SO
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED GOING FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THROUGH THE 03Z TIME FRAME.

WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS 700MB WINDS DECREASING TO
15-20KTS AFTER 06Z. FOR THURSDAY...WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
OUT WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. THEY DO START
PICKING UP AFTER 00Z...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30KTS BY 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY WINDY DAY ONCE AGAIN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

FRIDAY WE START TO SEE A CHANGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OPENS UP AND A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OUT WEST TO REMAIN 25 TO 35 KTS...BUT WINDS
OVER THE PANHANDLE TURN MORE EASTERLY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WE COULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT THAT WAY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEW ECMWF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS IS DRY
AND LATEST NAM/WRF SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD
ON PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

PESKY PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL
THIS WEEKEND AS IT EJECTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THRU WYOMING ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD BACK UP CONVECTION
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IF THE LLVL MOISTURE
MATERIALIZES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LLVL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS PROGD
INSTABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT TO
PROVIDE LIFT. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AT THE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING.

FLOW TURNS DRIER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED GIVEN THIS TRANSITION TO DRY
CONDITIONS.

PROGD H7 TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13-15C THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH 80S AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE BY MID EVENING. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD RECOVERIES IN THE
PANHANDLE. A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

000
FXUS65 KCYS 200314
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
914 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

DESPITE THE VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES (3000-4000 J/KG) ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE
AND STRENGTHEN. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS AND MOVED INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT THEN FAILED TO INTENSIFY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT HAVE BEEN INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. STILL KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE PANHANDLE AND
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z.  STORMS HAVE BEEN
CONTINUING INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET OVER THE PAST WEEK. THERE
IS CURRENTLY ONE LONE CELL IN COLORADO TO THE SOUTH OF KIMBALL
THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRETTY STRONG OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN CARBON
COUNTY...EXTENDING TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
DRY OUT THAT WAY...RAWLINS REPORTING 6 PERCENT HUMIDITY AT 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...LARAMIE 9 PERCENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
A CAP STILL IN PLACE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE...WITH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OF -25 TO -50 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING PRETTY MUCH
CLEAR SKIES...WITH NO CU DEVELOPMENT ALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SEES A BREAK IN THE CAP. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO +16C...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE CAP WILL BE
BROKEN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST DOES SHOW A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
ACROSS GOSHEN COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...SO
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED GOING FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THROUGH THE 03Z TIME FRAME.

WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS 700MB WINDS DECREASING TO
15-20KTS AFTER 06Z. FOR THURSDAY...WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
OUT WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. THEY DO START
PICKING UP AFTER 00Z...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30KTS BY 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY WINDY DAY ONCE AGAIN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

FRIDAY WE START TO SEE A CHANGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OPENS UP AND A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OUT WEST TO REMAIN 25 TO 35 KTS...BUT WINDS
OVER THE PANHANDLE TURN MORE EASTERLY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WE COULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT THAT WAY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEW ECMWF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS IS DRY
AND LATEST NAM/WRF SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD
ON PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

PESKY PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL
THIS WEEKEND AS IT EJECTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THRU WYOMING ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD BACK UP CONVECTION
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IF THE LLVL MOISTURE
MATERIALIZES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LLVL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS PROGD
INSTABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT TO
PROVIDE LIFT. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AT THE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING.

FLOW TURNS DRIER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED GIVEN THIS TRANSITION TO DRY
CONDITIONS.

PROGD H7 TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13-15C THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH 80S AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 38 KNOTS THROUGH 02Z...THEN DIMINISHING.
AFTER 15Z...WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE BY MID EVENING. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD RECOVERIES IN THE
PANHANDLE. A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

000
FXUS65 KCYS 192324
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
524 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRETTY STRONG OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN CARBON
COUNTY...EXTENDING TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
DRY OUT THAT WAY...RAWLINS REPORTING 6 PERCENT HUMIDITY AT 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...LARAMIE 9 PERCENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
A CAP STILL IN PLACE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE...WITH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OF -25 TO -50 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING PRETTY MUCH
CLEAR SKIES...WITH NO CU DEVELOPMENT ALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SEES A BREAK IN THE CAP. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO +16C...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE CAP WILL BE
BROKEN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST DOES SHOW A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
ACROSS GOSHEN COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...SO
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED GOING FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THROUGH THE 03Z TIME FRAME.

WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS 700MB WINDS DECREASING TO
15-20KTS AFTER 06Z. FOR THURSDAY...WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
OUT WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. THEY DO START
PICKING UP AFTER 00Z...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30KTS BY 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY WINDY DAY ONCE AGAIN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

FRIDAY WE START TO SEE A CHANGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OPENS UP AND A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OUT WEST TO REMAIN 25 TO 35 KTS...BUT WINDS
OVER THE PANHANDLE TURN MORE EASTERLY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WE COULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT THAT WAY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEW ECMWF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS IS DRY
AND LATEST NAM/WRF SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD
ON PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

PESKY PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL
THIS WEEKEND AS IT EJECTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THRU WYOMING ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD BACK UP CONVECTION
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IF THE LLVL MOISTURE
MATERIALIZES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LLVL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS PROGD
INSTABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT TO
PROVIDE LIFT. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AT THE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING.

FLOW TURNS DRIER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED GIVEN THIS TRANSITION TO DRY
CONDITIONS.

PROGD H7 TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13-15C THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH 80S AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 38 KNOTS THROUGH 02Z...THEN DIMINISHING.
AFTER 15Z...WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE BY MID EVENING. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD RECOVERIES IN THE
PANHANDLE. A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

000
FXUS65 KCYS 192156
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
356 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRETTY STRONG OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN CARBON
COUNTY...EXTENDING TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
DRY OUT THAT WAY...RAWLINS REPORTING 6 PERCENT HUMIDITY AT 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...LARAMIE 9 PERCENT. LATEST SPC MESONALYSIS SHOWING
A CAP STILL IN PLACE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE...WITH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OF -25 TO -50 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING PRETTY MUCH
CLEAR SKIES...WITH NO CU DEVELOPMENT ALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SEES A BREAK IN THE CAP. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO +16C...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE CAP WILL BE
BROKEN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST DOES SHOW A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
ACROSS GOSHEN COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...SO
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED GOING FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THROUGH THE 03Z TIME FRAME.

WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS 700MB WINDS DECREASING TO
15-20KTS AFTER 06Z. FOR THURSDAY...WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
OUT WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. THEY DO START
PICKING UP AFTER 00Z...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30KTS BY 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY WINDY DAY ONCE AGAIN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

FRIDAY WE START TO SEE A CHANGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OPENS UP AND A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OUT WEST TO REMAIN 25 TO 35 KTS...BUT WINDS
OVER THE PANHANDLE TURN MORE EASTERLY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WE COULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT THAT WAY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEW ECMWF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS IS DRY
AND LATEST NAM/WRF SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD
ON PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

PESKY PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL
THIS WEEKEND AS IT EJECTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THRU WYOMING ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD BACK UP CONVECTION
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IF THE LLVL MOISTURE
MATERIALIZES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LLVL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS PROGD
INSTABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT TO
PROVIDE LIFT. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AT THE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING.

FLOW TURNS DRIER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED GIVEN THIS TRANSITION TO DRY
CONDITIONS.

PROGD H7 TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13-15C THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH 80S AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KCDR BETWEEN
22Z AND 02Z. ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS AT THE PANHANDLE SITES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL
EASE AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE BY MID EVENING. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD RECOVERIES IN THE
PANHANDLE. A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

000
FXUS65 KCYS 191946
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
146 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEVADA AND INTO IDAHO TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE ROCKIES AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION...THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MIMICKING A DRYLINE. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/DRYLINE...WITH DEW POINTS
LOOKING TO INCREASE TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
AS A RESULT...CAPE READINGS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THIS PATTERN WITH 700MB READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE 14-16C BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING OF THE CAP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND INCREASING BROAD SCALE
LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THE ENERGETIC
JUICY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...AND
SOME HAIL. IF THE CAP CAN BREAK MORESO THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE MAINLY
EAST OF A LUSK TO SIDNEY LINE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 40 KT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN THIS AREA.

FURTHER WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THIS AREA...AND WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS...WILL SEE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA. FUELS IN
THIS REGION ARE STILL NOT PRIMED FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH SO WILL
JUST KEEP STRONG MENTION OF INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
FORECAST. WINDS WITHIN IN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS
WILL REMAIN LESS...AND SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY IN THIS
REGION...THE SOMEWHAT MUTED WINDS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AFTER
SUNSET...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG ALTHOUGH ELEVATED AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE
PICKING UP ON MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET THO SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHAT WILL EVOLVE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

FOR THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES WELL INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN LOW AND
OVER WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE SURFACE WINDS TO RETURN
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED TSTORMS ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWY RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW ALLOWS UPPER LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL A GOOD 5C OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS EAST THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST WITH
A MOIST ONSHORE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE...NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO SIDNEY. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS MONTANA SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY
ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. PROGGED
SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE CLOSER TO LARGE SCALE FORCING.

AS THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL PUSH THE DRY LINE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER AS SURFACE FUELS DRY
OUT. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES OF 13 TO 15C WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND...RISING
TO 17C BY TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KCDR BETWEEN
22Z AND 02Z. ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS AT THE PANHANDLE SITES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL
EASE AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH UPWARDS OF 40 TO
45 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. AT
TIMES...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPILL OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE
INTO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE MET IN THIS AREA AS SOME FUELS HAVE
CURED. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS WINDS
LOOK TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM

000
FXUS65 KCYS 191156
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AT THE TERMINALS IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES TODAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS AT THE PANHANDLE SITES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL
EASE AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEVADA AND INTO IDAHO TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE ROCKIES AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION...THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MIMICKING A DRYLINE. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/DRYLINE...WITH DEW POINTS
LOOKING TO INCREASE TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
AS A RESULT...CAPE READINGS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THIS PATTERN WITH 700MB READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE 14-16C BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING OF THE CAP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND INCREASING BROAD SCALE
LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THE ENERGETIC
JUICY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...AND
SOME HAIL. IF THE CAP CAN BREAK MORESO THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE MAINLY
EAST OF A LUSK TO SIDNEY LINE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 40 KT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN THIS AREA.

FURTHER WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THIS AREA...AND WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS...WILL SEE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA. FUELS IN
THIS REGION ARE STILL NOT PRIMED FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH SO WILL
JUST KEEP STRONG MENTION OF INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
FORECAST. WINDS WITHIN IN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS
WILL REMAIN LESS...AND SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY IN THIS
REGION...THE SOMEWHAT MUTED WINDS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AFTER
SUNSET...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG ALTHOUGH ELEVATED AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE
PICKING UP ON MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET THO SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHAT WILL EVOLVE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

FOR THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES WELL INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN LOW AND
OVER WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE SURFACE WINDS TO RETURN
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED TSTORMS ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWY RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW ALLOWS UPPER LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL A GOOD 5C OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS EAST THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST WITH
A MOIST ONSHORE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE...NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO SIDNEY. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS MONTANA SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY
ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. PROGGED
SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE CLOSER TO LARGE SCALE FORCING.

AS THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL PUSH THE DRY LINE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER AS SURFACE FUELS DRY
OUT. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES OF 13 TO 15C WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND...RISING
TO 17C BY TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH UPWARDS OF 40 TO
45 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. AT
TIMES...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPILL OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE
INTO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE MET IN THIS AREA AS SOME FUELS HAVE
CURED. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS WINDS
LOOK TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM

000
FXUS65 KCYS 191024
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
424 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEVADA AND INTO IDAHO TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE ROCKIES AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION...THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MIMICKING A DRYLINE. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/DRYLINE...WITH DEW POINTS
LOOKING TO INCREASE TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
AS A RESULT...CAPE READINGS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THIS PATTERN WITH 700MB READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE 14-16C BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING OF THE CAP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND INCREASING BROAD SCALE
LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THE ENERGETIC
JUICY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...AND
SOME HAIL. IF THE CAP CAN BREAK MORESO THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE MAINLY
EAST OF A LUSK TO SIDNEY LINE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 40 KT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN THIS AREA.

FURTHER WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THIS AREA...AND WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS...WILL SEE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA. FUELS IN
THIS REGION ARE STILL NOT PRIMED FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH SO WILL
JUST KEEP STRONG MENTION OF INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
FORECAST. WINDS WITHIN IN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WYOMING PLAINS
WILL REMAIN LESS...AND SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY IN THIS
REGION...THE SOMEWHAT MUTED WINDS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AFTER
SUNSET...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG ALTHOUGH ELEVATED AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE
PICKING UP ON MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET THO SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHAT WILL EVOLVE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

FOR THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES WELL INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN LOW AND
OVER WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE SURFACE WINDS TO RETURN
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED TSTORMS ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWY RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW ALLOWS UPPER LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL A GOOD 5C OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS EAST THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST WITH
A MOIST ONSHORE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE...NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO SIDNEY. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS MONTANA SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY
ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. PROGGED
SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE CLOSER TO LARGE SCALE FORCING.

AS THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL PUSH THE DRY LINE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER AS SURFACE FUELS DRY
OUT. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES OF 13 TO 15C WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND...RISING
TO 17C BY TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTH PARTS OF THE
CWA THROUGH 08Z. SOME OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH UPWARDS OF 40 TO
45 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. AT
TIMES...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPILL OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE
INTO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE MET IN THIS AREA AS SOME FUELS HAVE
CURED. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS WINDS
LOOK TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM

000
FXUS65 KCYS 190347
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WERE OVER THE FAR EAST PART OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA HAS
AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KCYS
TO KIBM LATE THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN A
RECENT UPDATE HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PANHANDLE SINCE 01Z.
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 04Z. HAVE KEPT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE
UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE CWA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT
AND MINOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY AIDING IN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OUT WEST. A
PRETTY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE HERE AT
CHEYENNE. FURTHER EAST IN THE PANHANDLE...LOW TO MID 50 TDS ARE
BEING REPORTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 600-1000 J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT ZERO. STILL CAPPED SOME OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES WITH ROUGHLY 50-75
J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON.

THINKING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY CONVECTION WISE...THOUGH COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THAT LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING BY 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN
CONGEALING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AFTER 00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO COME TO AN END MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z OR SO. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY AND WINDY DAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS CLIMBING TO NEAR
40KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING AS WELL
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +10C THIS AFTERNOON TO +16C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LEESIDE TROUGH STILL HANGS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL A GOOD BET OUT THAT WAY.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST
MOVES INLAND TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
OVER OUR CWFA...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL SOME...DOWN TO +10 TO
+12C. SO THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER WEDNESDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE MEANDERING PACNW CLOSED LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT
ONTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE DEPTH AT WHICH IT DOES SO WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND WILL CARRY RESIDUAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SWING FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN ITS PLACEMENT NR THE ID/MT STATELINE BY EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SO HAVE CONFINED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND BACKS UP INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SATURDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BEGIN TO HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
SURFACING OF GUSTIER WINDS ALOFT.

H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 13 AND 15C THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO 17C BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
EVEN SOME MID AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S OUT ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTH PARTS OF
THE CWA THROUGH 08Z. SOME OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. ZONES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO SEE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEGINNING MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDIEST TIME PERIODS LOOK TO BE
LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OUT WEST WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL BE LESS WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. SINCE ALL ZONES ARE STILL REPORTING
FUELS AS NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW OR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

000
FXUS65 KCYS 190134
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
734 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PANHANDLE SINCE 01Z.
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 04Z. HAVE KEPT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE
UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE CWA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT
AND MINOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY AIDING IN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OUT WEST. A
PRETTY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE HERE AT
CHEYENNE. FURTHER EAST IN THE PANHANDLE...LOW TO MID 50 TDS ARE
BEING REPORTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 600-1000 J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT ZERO. STILL CAPPED SOME OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES WITH ROUGHLY 50-75
J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON.

THINKING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY CONVECTION WISE...THOUGH COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THAT LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING BY 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN
CONGEALING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AFTER 00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO COME TO AN END MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z OR SO. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY AND WINDY DAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS CLIMBING TO NEAR
40KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING AS WELL
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +10C THIS AFTERNOON TO +16C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LEESIDE TROUGH STILL HANGS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL A GOOD BET OUT THAT WAY.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST
MOVES INLAND TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
OVER OUR CWFA...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL SOME...DOWN TO +10 TO
+12C. SO THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER WEDNESDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE MEANDERING PACNW CLOSED LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT
ONTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE DEPTH AT WHICH IT DOES SO WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND WILL CARRY RESIDUAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SWING FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN ITS PLACEMENT NR THE ID/MT STATELINE BY EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SO HAVE CONFINED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND BACKS UP INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SATURDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BEGIN TO HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
SURFACING OF GUSTIER WINDS ALOFT.

H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 13 AND 15C THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO 17C BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
EVEN SOME MID AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S OUT ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THOSE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. ZONES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO SEE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEGINNING MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDIEST TIME PERIODS LOOK TO BE
LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OUT WEST WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL BE LESS WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. SINCE ALL ZONES ARE STILL REPORTING
FUELS AS NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW OR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

000
FXUS65 KCYS 182030
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY AIDING IN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OUT WEST. A
PRETTY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE HERE AT
CHEYENNE. FURTHER EAST IN THE PANHANDLE...LOW TO MID 50 TDS ARE
BEING REPORTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 600-1000 J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT ZERO. STILL CAPPED SOME OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES WITH ROUGHLY 50-75
J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON.

THINKING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY CONVECTION WISE...THOUGH COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THAT LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING BY 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN
CONGEALING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AFTER 00Z.

THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO COME TO AN END MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z OR SO. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY AND WINDY DAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS CLIMBING TO NEAR
40KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING AS WELL
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +10C THIS AFTERNOON TO +16C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LEESIDE TROUGH STILL HANGS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL A GOOD BET OUT THAT WAY.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST
MOVES INLAND TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
OVER OUR CWFA...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL SOME...DOWN TO +10 TO
+12C. SO THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER WEDNESDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE MEANDERING PACNW CLOSED LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT
ONTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE DEPTH AT WHICH IT DOES SO WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND WILL CARRY RESIDUAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SWING FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN ITS PLACEMENT NR THE ID/MT STATELINE BY EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SO HAVE CONFINED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND BACKS UP INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SATURDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BEGIN TO HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
SURFACING OF GUSTIER WINDS ALOFT.

H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 13 AND 15C THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO 17C BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
EVEN SOME MID AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S OUT ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR
AIRPORTS FROM KLAR EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. USING THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE...TRIED TO NARROW TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ONSET.
INITIALLY A FEW CELLS AROUND KLAR AND KCYS...BUT THEN FORMING A
LINE ONCE THE STORMS GET INTO THE PANHANDLE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT KLAR AND KCYS...THEN THE LINE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. DO NOT THINK
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. ZONES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO SEE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEGINNING MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDIEST TIME PERIODS LOOK TO BE
LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OUT WEST WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL BE LESS WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. SINCE ALL ZONES ARE STILL REPORTING
FUELS AS NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW OR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB

000
FXUS65 KCYS 181634
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1034 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVED EAST AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES.
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WAS RIDING OVER AND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. SCATTERED TSTORMS LATE MONDAY OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL MCS OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING
OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WERE
VARIABLE AROUND 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN SHUNT
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WYOMING TODAY AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL
ENHANCE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG/ WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...MORE SPECIFICALLY EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE.
THE TSTORMS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11 TO 14C DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
BUFR SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
CAPPED TO PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WESTERLY SFC WINDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH RETURN OF
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTION OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW THOUGH...AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE GUSTING
30 TO 40 MPH AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WITH HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED FOR THIS AREA. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM 700 MB TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS WITH OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION
MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW
LLVL RETURN MOISTURE MUCH SOONER THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR TSTORMS MAINLY FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.

THESE DIFFERENCES ARE ATTRIBUTED TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND BREAKDOWN OF THIS LOW VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY...EACH WITH DIFFERENT
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL TREND HOWEVER
MAINTAINS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A BETTER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR
AIRPORTS FROM KLAR EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. USING THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE...TRIED TO NARROW TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ONSET.
INITIALLY A FEW CELLS AROUND KLAR AND KCYS...BUT THEN FORMING A
LINE ONCE THE STORMS GET INTO THE PANHANDLE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT KLAR AND KCYS...THEN THE LINE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. DO NOT THINK
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
TODAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER
IN MUCH DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY FOR THE WYOMING DISTRICT. A DRY LINE
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST
ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI

000
FXUS65 KCYS 181028
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
427 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVED EAST AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES.
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WAS RIDING OVER AND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. SCATTERED TSTORMS LATE MONDAY OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL MCS OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING
OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WERE
VARIABLE AROUND 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN SHUNT
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WYOMING TODAY AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL
ENHANCE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG/ WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...MORE SPECIFICALLY EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE.
THE TSTORMS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11 TO 14C DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
BUFR SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
CAPPED TO PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WESTERLY SFC WINDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH RETURN OF
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTION OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW THOUGH...AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE GUSTING
30 TO 40 MPH AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WITH HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED FOR THIS AREA. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM 700 MB TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS WITH OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION
MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW
LLVL RETURN MOISTURE MUCH SOONER THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR TSTORMS MAINLY FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.

THESE DIFFERENCES ARE ATTRIBUTED TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND BREAKDOWN OF THIS LOW VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY...EACH WITH DIFFERENT
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL TREND HOWEVER
MAINTAINS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A BETTER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPSLOPE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST
ONTO THE PLAINS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
TODAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER
IN MUCH DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY FOR THE WYOMING DISTRICT. A DRY LINE
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST
ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI

000
FXUS65 KCYS 181027
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
427 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVED EAST AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES.
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WAS RIDING OVER AND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. SCATTERED TSTORMS LATE MONDAY OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA ORGANIZED INTO A SMALL MCS OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING
OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WERE
VARIABLE AROUND 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN SHUNT
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WYOMING TODAY AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL
ENHANCE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG/ WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...MORE SPECIFICALLY EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE.
THE TSTORMS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11 TO 14C DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
BUFR SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
CAPPED TO PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WESTERLY SFC WINDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH RETURN OF
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTION OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW THOUGH...AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE GUSTING
30 TO 40 MPH AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WITH HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED FOR THIS AREA. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM 700 MB TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS WITH OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION
MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW
LLVL RETURN MOISTURE MUCH SOONER THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR TSTORMS MAINLY FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.

THESE DIFFERENCES ARE ATTRIBUTED TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND BREAKDOWN OF THIS LOW VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY...EACH WITH DIFFERENT
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL TREND HOWEVER
MAINTAINS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A BETTER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY REMAINING DRY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPSLOPE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST
ONTO THE PLAINS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
TODAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER
IN MUCH DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY FOR THE WYOMING DISTRICT. A DRY LINE
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST
ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI

000
FXUS65 KCYS 180426
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1026 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.
AS OF 0030Z THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING.
ATMOSPHERE STILL FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. IN A RECENT UPDATE HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA AND MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE MT NS OF
SE WYOMING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL
A DECENT BET. CLEARING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS SW UPPER FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE CWA WITH QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SURFACE TROUGH OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR ALL AREAS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO +16C. SHOULD PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD CAP ON CONVECTION.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND ANOTHER
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THE GFS
REMAINS DRY...THE NEW ECMWF CONCENTRATING QPF OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BOUNDARY STAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA. ENERGY FROM THIS LOW SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOPEFULLY...FOLKS GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ALL COULD USE SOME RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AROUND 06Z OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SIDNEY. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA PRODUCING MVFR...
OTHERWISE VFR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 15Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z TUESDAY
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OUT WEDNESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONCERNS CONTINUE THE
MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
WINDS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOONS. FUELS CURRENTLY STILL NON-CRITICAL
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE

000
FXUS65 KCYS 180048
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
648 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.
AS OF 0030Z THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING.
ATMOSPHERE STILL FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. IN A RECENT UPDATE HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA AND MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE MT NS OF
SE WYOMING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL
A DECENT BET. CLEARING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS SW UPPER FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE CWA WITH QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SURFACE TROUGH OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR ALL AREAS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO +16C. SHOULD PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD CAP ON CONVECTION.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND ANOTHER
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THE GFS
REMAINS DRY...THE NEW ECMWF CONCENTRATING QPF OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BOUNDARY STAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA. ENERGY FROM THIS LOW SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOPEFULLY...FOLKS GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ALL COULD USE SOME RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM KCYS-KSNY IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURNS OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.  VFR BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OUT WEDNESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONCERNS CONTINUE THE
MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
WINDS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOONS. FUELS CURRENTLY STILL NON-CRITICAL
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE

000
FXUS65 KCYS 172141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
341 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE MT NS OF
SE WYOMING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL
A DECENT BET. CLEARING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS SW UPPER FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE CWA WITH QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SURFACE TROUGH OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR ALL AREAS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO +16C. SHOULD PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD CAP ON CONVECTION.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND ANOTHER
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THE GFS
REMAINS DRY...THE NEW ECMWF CONCENTRATING QPF OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BOUNDARY STAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA. ENERGY FROM THIS LOW SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOPEFULLY...FOLKS GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ALL COULD USE SOME RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM KCYS-KSNY IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURNS OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.  VFR BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OUT WEDNESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONCERNS CONTINUE THE
MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
WINDS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOONS. FUELS CURRENTLY STILL NON-CRITICAL
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE

000
FXUS65 KCYS 172026
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
226 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE MT NS OF
SE WYOMING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL
A DECENT BET. CLEARING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS SW UPPER FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE CWA WITH QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SURFACE TROUGH OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR ALL AREAS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO +16C. SHOULD PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD CAP ON CONVECTION.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND ANOTHER
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THE GFS
REMAINS DRY...THE NEW ECMWF CONCENTRATING QPF OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BOUNDARY STAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA. ENERGY FROM THIS LOW SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOPEFULLY...FOLKS GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ALL COULD USE SOME RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

STRATUS STARTING TO BREAK UP LATE THIS MORNING WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A RAPID EROSION OF STRATUS BLANKET NEAR
CHEYENNE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO GET SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH
OF KCDR WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH ON THE
CELLS. THINK THAT THIS STORM WILL PASS NORTH OF KAIA IN THE NEXT
30 TO 45 MINUTES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE AFTER
THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE HAZARDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OUT WEDNESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONCERNS CONTINUE THE
MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
WINDS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOONS. FUELS CURRENTLY STILL NON-CRITICAL
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE

000
FXUS65 KCYS 171720
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO WESTERN MONTANA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKER WAVE
WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RADAR ESTIMATES OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST CONVERSE COUNTY
SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT WAS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GET NUDGED EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INLAND. THE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
AND HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CONVECTION WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
LARGE SCALE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING....AS INDICATED BY THE SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH REGARD TO DIURNAL TSTORM COVERAGE...HOWEVER
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT TSTORM COVERAGE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CARBON COUNTY WHERE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12 TO 14C. ELSEWHERE...
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 11C...WHICH WILL YIELD
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM 11 TO
15C.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND KEEPS THE ROCKIES
IN AN ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
90S. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AS WELL WILL CAP THE ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...BUT AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW REGION
OF THE UPPER JET COULD TRIGGER STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE WY/NE BORDER. A
FEW STORMS COULD ALSO FORM OFF THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ONLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS HERE.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 3000 J/KG IN THE
PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE CAP WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF STORMS AT FIRST. TIMING OF THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO
COINCIDE WITH THE LLVL JET FORMATION...AND WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF
CAPE TO PERSIST IN THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY WILL SEE CONVECTION
INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES DUE TO THE HIGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY SO CONVECTION SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAG A
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A BROADER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE OVER THE PAC NW WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEEPER FETCH OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERLY PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS WELL WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

STRATUS STARTING TO BREAK UP LATE THIS MORNING WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A RAPID EROSION OF STRATUS BLANKET NEAR
CHEYENNE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO GET SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH
OF KCDR WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH ON THE
CELLS. THINK THAT THIS STORM WILL PASS NORTH OF KAIA IN THE NEXT
30 TO 45 MINUTES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE AFTER
THE 20-21Z TIMEFRAME FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE HAZARDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTENSIFY AS
THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE DRIER FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WHILE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI

000
FXUS65 KCYS 171057
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO WESTERN MONTANA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKER WAVE
WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RADAR ESTIMATES OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST CONVERSE COUNTY
SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT WAS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GET NUDGED EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INLAND. THE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
AND HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CONVECTION WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
LARGE SCALE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IN STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING....AS INDICATED BY THE SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH REGARD TO DIURNAL TSTORM COVERAGE...HOWEVER
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT TSTORM COVERAGE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CARBON COUNTY WHERE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12 TO 14C. ELSEWHERE...
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 11C...WHICH WILL YIELD
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM 11 TO
15C.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND KEEPS THE ROCKIES
IN AN ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
90S. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AS WELL WILL CAP THE ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...BUT AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW REGION
OF THE UPPER JET COULD TRIGGER STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE WY/NE BORDER. A
FEW STORMS COULD ALSO FORM OFF THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ONLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS HERE.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 3000 J/KG IN THE
PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE CAP WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF STORMS AT FIRST. TIMING OF THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO
COINCIDE WITH THE LLVL JET FORMATION...AND WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF
CAPE TO PERSIST IN THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY WILL SEE CONVECTION
INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES DUE TO THE HIGH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY SO CONVECTION SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAG A
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A BROADER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE OVER THE PAC NW WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEEPER FETCH OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERLY PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS WELL WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. ALSO...PATCHY MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. LOCAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE TSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTENSIFY AS
THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE DRIER FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WHILE
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI