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000
FXUS65 KCYS 010316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 010316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST
RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 312353
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 312353
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO AVIATION THREATS
ARE MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 312136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
336 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









000
FXUS65 KCYS 312136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
336 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT A THUNDER SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON SO THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE THUNDER
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW
READINGS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT THUNDER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A BIT LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND INCREASED WARMING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND
A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS IN THESE
CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED RIDGES.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL PUSH OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON MONDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS AN
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN GENERAL...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SHEARS IT OUT INTO MORE A
STREAM OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THE
SOLUTION...PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THREE-
QUARTERS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AS
WELL...LI`S WILL AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 2 OR LESS...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR AT JET LEVEL...SO
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUES-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT










000
FXUS65 KCYS 311821
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1221 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 311821
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1221 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 310945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 310945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE PIX SHOW BACK END OF CLOUD CANOPY NEARING THE
WY/NE STATELINE AT 09Z. AT ITS CURRENT PACE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR
MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HOVER BETWEEN
1-3F AND WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY DAY AHEAD AS THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AS PROGD PWATS CLIMB A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TO VARYING DEGREES...00Z MODEL DATA TRACKS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NAM EVEN DROPS A WEAK ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY INTO NRN AND WRN
ZONES. SO DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. SBCAPES ARE STILL ONLY 200-500 J/KG WHICH
WILL HOLD CONVECTION STRENGTH DOWN.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY AND WITH WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN. DID MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LLVL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TODAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET AND 80S BELOW. THE 80 DEGREE ISOTHERM CLIMBS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR FRIDAY AND 5500 FEET FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND PHASES WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY INTO WEDS BRINGING AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
TO MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN THURSDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING
AROUND 6000 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER
MITIGATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310428
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1028 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS STAYING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE IFR FOG/STRATUS OUT OF KCYS AND KLAR.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 310428
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1028 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS STAYING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SO WENT AHEAD AND PULLED THE IFR FOG/STRATUS OUT OF KCYS AND KLAR.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 302316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
516 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. COULD
SEE SOME IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST HINTING AT THIS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS. WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AT 04Z AND THEN IFR AROUND 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 302316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
516 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. COULD
SEE SOME IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR FORECAST HINTING AT THIS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS. WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS IN AT 04Z AND THEN IFR AROUND 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 302140
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 302140
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE REASON WHY CONDITIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IMPROVE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SO KEPT
TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST CLOUDY
AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS LOCATIONS SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE PLEASANT DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL REMAIN
COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR POSSIBLY UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST..THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINLY
BE ALOFT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 600MB WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAIN A
STRONG HOLD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11 AND
17C. ANOTHER PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PWATS FORECAST TO EXCEED ONE
INCH...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. STEERING FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE RECENT
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS...HIGH HUMIDITIES...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 301751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 301751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES KRWL...KLAR...KCYS...AND KSNY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 301546
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
946 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM RAWLINS EASTWARD TO PINE BLUFFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER











000
FXUS65 KCYS 300924
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300924
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
324 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AM WITH GOOD LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO...WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN GOING
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO HAVE NOT
BEEN SEEING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR CYS
HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS WITH PWAT
VALUES CLOSER TO 1 INCH AND THE K-INDEX UNDER 30 AS OF 08Z. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...AIR MASS IS NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS ON TUE
AFTN AND EVE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SO
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
AT 12Z THIS AM. UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTN AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES AND MIDLVL PVA SPREADS INTO CO. SHOULD SEE THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY NO CAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE QUITE COOL TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH AT
LEAST PEAK HEATING. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR CYS WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 59 F FOR THIS DATE.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. H7 TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
TO 8 DEG C THROUGH FRI AFTN PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AND MODEST
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
THU AND FRI WITH UPPER 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE. NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A BIT
OF MIDLVL MOISTURE SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
ON FRI AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT. BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISM...SO WENT AHEAD AND BROUGHT
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE BEING FLATTENED AS THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVR
THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS...INSTEAD CONFINING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE/SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SUMMERTIME NORMS OVR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND REFLECTED
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE CWA. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS CLIMB TO
AROUND 12C ON SATURDAY...AND TO AROUND 14C FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER VALUES
WILL BE FOUND OVR THE WRN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES EAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY
AND 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWFA FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FTR WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER AND STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BOOSTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES RETURN TO VALUES SIMILAR THOSE SEEN
YESTERDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN HEIGHTEN AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR MOST
TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS AND -RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS WHERE RAINS HAVE
BEEN MORE SPOTTY AND LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY
AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THIS LOW
STRATUS WILL OBSCURE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS TODAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS. COOLER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 300306
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
906 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CO. REGIONAL RADARS DETECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER/ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE. CONVECTION WAS PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL /ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR/ WITH SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION CAUSED FLOODING IN PARTS OF ALBANY...CARBON
AND PLATTE COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WY AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND WILL RESULT IN FURTHER RUNOFF. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
TWEAKED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 300306
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
906 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL CO. REGIONAL RADARS DETECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER/ISOLATED
TSTORM COVERAGE. CONVECTION WAS PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL /ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR/ WITH SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION CAUSED FLOODING IN PARTS OF ALBANY...CARBON
AND PLATTE COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WY AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND WILL RESULT IN FURTHER RUNOFF. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
TWEAKED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS65 KCYS 292328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS65 KCYS 292328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KT OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCDR AND KAIA
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN
FROM KCYS TO KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









000
FXUS65 KCYS 292110
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KTS OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCDR AND
KAIA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. KEPT IFR VIS DUE TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN FROM
KCYS...WESTWARD TO KRWL TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ALMOST A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN FALL AMOUNTS. FOR EXAMPLE...LARAMIE
RECEIVED OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN 45 MINUTES AND A REPORT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF LARAMIE SHOWED ALMOST .9 INCHES OF RAIN IN
JUST 35 MINUTES. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THINK WE WILL
BE SEEING MANY LOCATIONS WITH 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB











000
FXUS65 KCYS 292110
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST STARTING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ALBANY COUNTY NEAR LARAMIE AND UP NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN AT NOON
TODAY. STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING TO JUST NORTH
OF RAWLINS...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SARATOGA...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS MOST OF WESTERN WYOMING UNDER
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH NORTHERN COLORADO FILLING IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWFA ARE VERY SLOW
MOVING...WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF 5-10KTS OR
LESS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SPILLING OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES
AFTER 22Z TODAY. PWATS HERE AT CHEYENNE CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON...UP TO 1.36 INCHES BY MID EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ON CELLS..UNDER 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM SHOWING 20KT
AT 700MBS THIS EVENING. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPING EVENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THINK THAT WE
WILL SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT WITH MODERATE
RAIN...MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS.
WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN TO COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THIS
PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
WEST. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW PW/S INCREASING OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT LLVL INSTABILITY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS WELL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FAVORABLE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCDR AND
KAIA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. KEPT IFR VIS DUE TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A
700MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN RAIN FROM
KCYS...WESTWARD TO KRWL TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL
BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW
MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ALMOST A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN FALL AMOUNTS. FOR EXAMPLE...LARAMIE
RECEIVED OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN 45 MINUTES AND A REPORT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF LARAMIE SHOWED ALMOST .9 INCHES OF RAIN IN
JUST 35 MINUTES. FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THINK WE WILL
BE SEEING MANY LOCATIONS WITH 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-106-112-
     114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
HYDROLOGY...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS65 KCYS 291139
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY AT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES. THIS SHOULD
LIFT BETWEEN 16-18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KICK OFF
FIRST NR KRWL AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THRU THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING KLAR AND KCYS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY JUST A
DECREASE INTO MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE...BUT LESSEN IN COVERAGE SOME TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 291139
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT KRWL...KLAR AND KCYS. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY AT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES. THIS SHOULD
LIFT BETWEEN 16-18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KICK OFF
FIRST NR KRWL AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THRU THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING KLAR AND KCYS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY JUST A
DECREASE INTO MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
SEE IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE...BUT LESSEN IN COVERAGE SOME TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 291001
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291001
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NV/UT WITHIN A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN A LARGER SCALE RIDGING PATTERN. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY BY
18Z BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXCELLENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WIDESPREAD SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F PER RECENT OBS. BELIEVE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS BY MID AFTN. INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER 21Z ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

GFS K-INDEX VALUES OF 35 TO 40 C AND STRONG UVVS POINT TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EVE. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND DEEP SATURATION AFTER 21Z. WHILE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MAY NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH AVERAGE 700-300 MILLIBAR
WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KT. PLUS THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ALL AGREE
WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WPC STILL PAINTS A MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH
PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS AS CONVECTION MAY BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN. LEFT THOSE
AREAS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY
WISH TO REVISIT.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNRISE
WED AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE THINGS OUT WITH SOME HIGHER QPF CARRYING OVER INTO
THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME ON WED AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WED WILL RATHER COOL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PCPN. H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5-7C ON WED SUGGESTS COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS MOS INDICATES...ONLY LOOKING AT A HIGH AROUND 65F HERE
IN CYS. WARMER AND DRIER FOR THU AS RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A VERY TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST PATTERN TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
PERIODICALLY INFILTRATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN REMOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING
REACHING WRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. PROGS SBCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG SUGGEST ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL ONLY MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WRN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT ERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN HAVE
BEEN CONFINED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SLINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THRU THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE COWBOY STATE ON
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE
ITS EFFECTS REALLY WONT BE FELT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THRU THE CWFA. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THIS FTR...IT MAY LINGER AND/OR HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIBERAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR MON/TUE WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THAT THESE WILL BE REFINED AS
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NEW MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ103-106-112-114>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

GRIDDED FORECASTS MODIFIED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY
LAYER PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 AND SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CHEYENNE AND DENVER
WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES
FROM BURNS TO PINE BLUFFS TO BUSHNELL AND KIMBALL. ALSO ADJUSTED
QPF GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CHEYENNE AND DENVER WSR-88D REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OUR POPS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
STORMS DUE TO SLOW STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1142 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

GRIDDED FORECASTS MODIFIED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY
LAYER PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 AND SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CHEYENNE AND DENVER
WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES
FROM BURNS TO PINE BLUFFS TO BUSHNELL AND KIMBALL. ALSO ADJUSTED
QPF GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CHEYENNE AND DENVER WSR-88D REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OUR POPS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
STORMS DUE TO SLOW STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 15Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND TURBULENCE WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 290456
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

GRIDDED FORECASTS MODIFIED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY
LAYER PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 AND SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CHEYENNE AND DENVER
WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LARAMIE AND WESTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES
FROM BURNS TO PINE BLUFFS TO BUSHNELL AND KIMBALL. ALSO ADJUSTED
QPF GRIDS TO MATCH EXPECTED RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CHEYENNE AND DENVER WSR-88D REFLECTIVITIES INDICATING
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. BASED
ON RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED UP
OUR POPS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
STORMS DUE TO SLOW STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...THROUGH 03Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO BRIDGEPORT LINE PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

03Z TO 15Z...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM 10Z TO 15Z WITH
LOCALIZED IFR AND MVFR. AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG GREATEST SOUTH OF A
SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE LINE.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.

WYOMING AERODROMES...THROUGH 03Z ISOLATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF A WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE LINE...
WITH LESS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
AND TURBULENCE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

03Z TO 15Z...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM 10Z TO 15Z AT LARAMIE
AND CHEYENNE WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. LOCALIZED IFR AND MVFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LARAMIE TO WHEATLAND LINE...
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE







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