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000
FXUS65 KCYS 301137 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
537 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE 6 AM AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON AVERAGE OF 5 TO 15 MPH OBSERVED AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE NEAR SFC INVERSION SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUSTY LLVL JET WINDS AT BAY THO SO SHOULD SEE THESE LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.

THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS THIS OCCURS AND AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO ROUGHLY 550 MB BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THRU THE MIXED LAYER MAXING OUT AT 20
TO 25 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AND 10 TO
15 KTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CARBON COUNTY TO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE DEEPENING LEESIDE TROUGH
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S AND PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT UP AND INTO THE CWA TODAY AS WELL
AND WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FWZ 301 SO WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE HERE. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TURN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST SO LOOKING AT ONLY MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
HERE FOR ZONES 309 AND 310.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STILL THINKING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE PLAINS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
RAINFALL WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
SUGGEST GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD AS WELL.

WINDS TONIGHT COULD REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SPARK OFF MORE AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WEAK
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE NOSE OF A JETLET
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS A AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYERED AIRMASS WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WYOMING...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SEVERAL
STRONGER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTS TO EJECT OUT TO THE EAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST HANGING IT UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AXIS OF DEEPER MIDLEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
MONTANA MOVING GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND RAWLINS AND LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ADDED VCTS MENTION BY MID AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AIRPORTS...THEN AT
CHEYENNE BY EARLY EVENING WITH NO MENTION FARTHER EAST DUE TO THE
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MOSTLY HIGH CIRRUS AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY LATE MORNING EXCEPT
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT...WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER NOON TODAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR FWZ 301 FOR THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN WYO PLAINS THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 301137 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
537 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE 6 AM AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON AVERAGE OF 5 TO 15 MPH OBSERVED AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE NEAR SFC INVERSION SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUSTY LLVL JET WINDS AT BAY THO SO SHOULD SEE THESE LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.

THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS THIS OCCURS AND AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO ROUGHLY 550 MB BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THRU THE MIXED LAYER MAXING OUT AT 20
TO 25 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AND 10 TO
15 KTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CARBON COUNTY TO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE DEEPENING LEESIDE TROUGH
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S AND PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT UP AND INTO THE CWA TODAY AS WELL
AND WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FWZ 301 SO WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE HERE. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TURN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST SO LOOKING AT ONLY MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
HERE FOR ZONES 309 AND 310.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STILL THINKING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE PLAINS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
RAINFALL WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
SUGGEST GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD AS WELL.

WINDS TONIGHT COULD REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SPARK OFF MORE AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WEAK
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE NOSE OF A JETLET
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS A AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYERED AIRMASS WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WYOMING...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SEVERAL
STRONGER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTS TO EJECT OUT TO THE EAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST HANGING IT UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AXIS OF DEEPER MIDLEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
MONTANA MOVING GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND RAWLINS AND LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ADDED VCTS MENTION BY MID AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AIRPORTS...THEN AT
CHEYENNE BY EARLY EVENING WITH NO MENTION FARTHER EAST DUE TO THE
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MOSTLY HIGH CIRRUS AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY LATE MORNING EXCEPT
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT...WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER NOON TODAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR FWZ 301 FOR THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN WYO PLAINS THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
406 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON AVERAGE OF 5 TO 15 MPH OBSERVED AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE NEAR SFC INVERSION SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUSTY LLVL JET WINDS AT BAY THO SO SHOULD SEE THESE LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.

THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS THIS OCCURS AND AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO ROUGHLY 550 MB BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THRU THE MIXED LAYER MAXING OUT AT 20
TO 25 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AND 10 TO
15 KTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CARBON COUNTY TO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE DEEPENING LEESIDE TROUGH
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S AND PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT UP AND INTO THE CWA TODAY AS WELL
AND WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FWZ 301 SO WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE HERE. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TURN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST SO LOOKING AT ONLY MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
HERE FOR ZONES 309 AND 310.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STILL THINKING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE PLAINS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
RAINFALL WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
SUGGEST GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD AS WELL.

WINDS TONIGHT COULD REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SPARK OFF MORE AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WEAK
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE NOSE OF A JETLET
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS A AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYERED AIRMASS WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WYOMING...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SEVERAL
STRONGER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTS TO EJECT OUT TO THE EAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST HANGING IT UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT...WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER NOON TODAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR FWZ 301 FOR THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN WYO PLAINS THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 301006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
406 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON AVERAGE OF 5 TO 15 MPH OBSERVED AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE NEAR SFC INVERSION SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUSTY LLVL JET WINDS AT BAY THO SO SHOULD SEE THESE LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.

THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS THIS OCCURS AND AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO ROUGHLY 550 MB BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THRU THE MIXED LAYER MAXING OUT AT 20
TO 25 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AND 10 TO
15 KTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CARBON COUNTY TO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE DEEPENING LEESIDE TROUGH
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S AND PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT UP AND INTO THE CWA TODAY AS WELL
AND WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FWZ 301 SO WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE HERE. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TURN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST SO LOOKING AT ONLY MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
HERE FOR ZONES 309 AND 310.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STILL THINKING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE PLAINS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
RAINFALL WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
SUGGEST GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD AS WELL.

WINDS TONIGHT COULD REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SPARK OFF MORE AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WEAK
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE NOSE OF A JETLET
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS A AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYERED AIRMASS WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WYOMING...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SEVERAL
STRONGER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTS TO EJECT OUT TO THE EAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST HANGING IT UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT...WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER NOON TODAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR FWZ 301 FOR THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN WYO PLAINS THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
406 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON AVERAGE OF 5 TO 15 MPH OBSERVED AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE NEAR SFC INVERSION SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUSTY LLVL JET WINDS AT BAY THO SO SHOULD SEE THESE LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.

THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS THIS OCCURS AND AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO ROUGHLY 550 MB BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THRU THE MIXED LAYER MAXING OUT AT 20
TO 25 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AND 10 TO
15 KTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CARBON COUNTY TO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE DEEPENING LEESIDE TROUGH
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S AND PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT UP AND INTO THE CWA TODAY AS WELL
AND WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FWZ 301 SO WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE HERE. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TURN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST SO LOOKING AT ONLY MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
HERE FOR ZONES 309 AND 310.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STILL THINKING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE PLAINS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
RAINFALL WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
SUGGEST GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD AS WELL.

WINDS TONIGHT COULD REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SPARK OFF MORE AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WEAK
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE NOSE OF A JETLET
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS A AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYERED AIRMASS WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WYOMING...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SEVERAL
STRONGER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTS TO EJECT OUT TO THE EAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST HANGING IT UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT...WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER NOON TODAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR FWZ 301 FOR THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN WYO PLAINS THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 301006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
406 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON AVERAGE OF 5 TO 15 MPH OBSERVED AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE NEAR SFC INVERSION SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUSTY LLVL JET WINDS AT BAY THO SO SHOULD SEE THESE LIGHTER
WINDS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.

THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS THIS OCCURS AND AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO ROUGHLY 550 MB BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THRU THE MIXED LAYER MAXING OUT AT 20
TO 25 KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AND 10 TO
15 KTS TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND POINTS EAST.
THEREFORE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CARBON COUNTY TO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE DEEPENING LEESIDE TROUGH
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH 80S AND 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND 90S AND PERHAPS A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. A FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT UP AND INTO THE CWA TODAY AS WELL
AND WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FWZ 301 SO WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE HERE. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TURN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST SO LOOKING AT ONLY MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
HERE FOR ZONES 309 AND 310.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STILL THINKING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE PLAINS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
RAINFALL WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
SUGGEST GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD AS WELL.

WINDS TONIGHT COULD REMAIN A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED THRU THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SPARK OFF MORE AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AIDED BY STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONAL WEAK
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE NOSE OF A JETLET
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS A AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYERED AIRMASS WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE
WYOMING...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SEVERAL
STRONGER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTS TO EJECT OUT TO THE EAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST HANGING IT UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT...WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER NOON TODAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR FWZ 301 FOR THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN WYO PLAINS THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300534 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300534 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300534 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300534 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292330
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOME
MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO SMOKE MAINLY
AFFECTING KCDR.  ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD
AHEAD AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA.
&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...SML/KC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292330
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOME
MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO SMOKE MAINLY
AFFECTING KCDR.  ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD
AHEAD AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA.
&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...SML/KC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 292330
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOME
MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO SMOKE MAINLY
AFFECTING KCDR.  ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD
AHEAD AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA.
&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...SML/KC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 292330
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOME
MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO SMOKE MAINLY
AFFECTING KCDR.  ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SE WY
MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD
AHEAD AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA.
&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...SML/KC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292137
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SMOKE CAUSING OCCASIONAL SLIGHT DECREASE TO VISIBILITIES... DOWN
TO 5 MILES IN CHADRON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON... SMOKE SHOULD BLOW OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGHER
WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO CHADRON TONIGHT FROM THE FORMATION
OF A LOW LEVEL JET... WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KT.
OTHERWISE... LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD
AHEAD AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA.
&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...SML/KC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PART...CONVERSE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS UP
THERE AS WELL AS PWATS INITIALLY START OFF AT .6 INCHES BEFORE
INCREASING TO NEAR .8 INCHES BY 00Z. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SMOKE CAUSING OCCASIONAL SLIGHT DECREASE TO VISIBILITIES... DOWN
TO 5 MILES IN CHADRON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON... SMOKE SHOULD BLOW OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGHER
WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO CHADRON TONIGHT FROM THE FORMATION
OF A LOW LEVEL JET... WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KT.
OTHERWISE... LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR ZONES 301...302...AND 304. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301 SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS TURN WET. A FORE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML/KC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PART...CONVERSE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS UP
THERE AS WELL AS PWATS INITIALLY START OFF AT .6 INCHES BEFORE
INCREASING TO NEAR .8 INCHES BY 00Z. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SMOKE CAUSING OCCASIONAL SLIGHT DECREASE TO VISIBILITIES... DOWN
TO 5 MILES IN CHADRON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON... SMOKE SHOULD BLOW OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGHER
WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO CHADRON TONIGHT FROM THE FORMATION
OF A LOW LEVEL JET... WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KT.
OTHERWISE... LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR ZONES 301...302...AND 304. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301 SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS TURN WET. A FORE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML/KC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291722
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PART...CONVERSE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS UP
THERE AS WELL AS PWATS INITIALLY START OFF AT .6 INCHES BEFORE
INCREASING TO NEAR .8 INCHES BY 00Z. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE EARLY MORNING AVAITION PACKAGE
UPDATE. STILL THINKING MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC
MVFR WITH 4-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SMOKE (COMING IN ON WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN FIRES). THE SMOKE SHOULD
MIX OUT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR ZONES 301...302...AND 304. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301 SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS TURN WET. A FORE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291722
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PART...CONVERSE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS UP
THERE AS WELL AS PWATS INITIALLY START OFF AT .6 INCHES BEFORE
INCREASING TO NEAR .8 INCHES BY 00Z. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE EARLY MORNING AVAITION PACKAGE
UPDATE. STILL THINKING MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC
MVFR WITH 4-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SMOKE (COMING IN ON WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN FIRES). THE SMOKE SHOULD
MIX OUT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR ZONES 301...302...AND 304. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301 SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS TURN WET. A FORE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291722
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PART...CONVERSE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS UP
THERE AS WELL AS PWATS INITIALLY START OFF AT .6 INCHES BEFORE
INCREASING TO NEAR .8 INCHES BY 00Z. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE EARLY MORNING AVAITION PACKAGE
UPDATE. STILL THINKING MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC
MVFR WITH 4-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SMOKE (COMING IN ON WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN FIRES). THE SMOKE SHOULD
MIX OUT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR ZONES 301...302...AND 304. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301 SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS TURN WET. A FORE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291722
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WENT AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
AT LEAST THE WESTERN PART...CONVERSE COUNTY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS UP
THERE AS WELL AS PWATS INITIALLY START OFF AT .6 INCHES BEFORE
INCREASING TO NEAR .8 INCHES BY 00Z. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE EARLY MORNING AVAITION PACKAGE
UPDATE. STILL THINKING MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC
MVFR WITH 4-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SMOKE (COMING IN ON WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN FIRES). THE SMOKE SHOULD
MIX OUT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR ZONES 301...302...AND 304. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COULD PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301 SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS TURN WET. A FORE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291158 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE 6 AM AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE EARLY MORNING AVAITION PACKAGE
UPDATE. STILL THINKING MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC
MVFR WITH 4-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SMOKE (COMING IN ON WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN FIRES). THE SMOKE SHOULD
MIX OUT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT
SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH WETTING RAINS
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291158 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE 6 AM AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE EARLY MORNING AVAITION PACKAGE
UPDATE. STILL THINKING MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC
MVFR WITH 4-5 MILE VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SMOKE (COMING IN ON WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN FIRES). THE SMOKE SHOULD
MIX OUT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT
SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH WETTING RAINS
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291014
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
414 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SMOKE SETTLING IN AND
BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BETWEEN 5-7MI. MAINTAINED SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT THROUGH
THE DAY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LAYER THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT THIN.

TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL SPIKE INTO THE 80S AND 90S
WHILE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 15
TO 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 250 MB ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MEANING GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. A
MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN
GAP LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY...AND ALSO ALONG THE PINE
RIDGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
80S AND 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL INCREASE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING SW FLOW PATTERN WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HOTTEST CASE SCENARIO. THE
EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER
AFTERNOON SO TEMPS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. WITHIN THIS
HOT AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS A TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHO WINDS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WETTING RAINS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WITH TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO BREEZY GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
IN PLACE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES TO
ROUGHLY 550 MB.

THE FETCH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FOR
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. LLVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OR PERHAPS MAY EVEN
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINTAINING
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONDAY`S PASSING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE JETSTREAM
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...SO NO MENTION OF POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY LATE
FRIDAY...SO WE PUT IN SOME POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR/MVFR EXPECTED ALL FORECAST SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
NORTHERN PART OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SMOKE FILTERING IN ON NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR SOME SITES TO
NEAR 5 MILES BUT STILL WITHIN MVFR RANGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY BUT
SO WILL HUMIDITIES AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH WETTING RAINS
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML/JG
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290546 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT ON THE WEATHER FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CONUS HAS ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATED THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING SMOKE TO BE VERY THICK BUT THINKING IT IS WORTH A
MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MILES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR/MVFR EXPECTED ALL FORECAST SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
NORTHERN PART OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SMOKE FILTERING IN ON NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR SOME SITES TO
NEAR 5 MILES BUT STILL WITHIN MVFR RANGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML/JG
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290546 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT ON THE WEATHER FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CONUS HAS ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATED THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING SMOKE TO BE VERY THICK BUT THINKING IT IS WORTH A
MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MILES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR/MVFR EXPECTED ALL FORECAST SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
NORTHERN PART OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SMOKE FILTERING IN ON NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR SOME SITES TO
NEAR 5 MILES BUT STILL WITHIN MVFR RANGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML/JG
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290546 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT ON THE WEATHER FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CONUS HAS ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATED THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING SMOKE TO BE VERY THICK BUT THINKING IT IS WORTH A
MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MILES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR/MVFR EXPECTED ALL FORECAST SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
NORTHERN PART OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SMOKE FILTERING IN ON NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR SOME SITES TO
NEAR 5 MILES BUT STILL WITHIN MVFR RANGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML/JG
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 290227
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
827 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT ON THE WEATHER FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CONUS HAS ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATED THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING SMOKE TO BE VERY THICK BUT THINKING IT IS WORTH A
MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MILES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290227
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
827 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT ON THE WEATHER FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CONUS HAS ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATED THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING SMOKE TO BE VERY THICK BUT THINKING IT IS WORTH A
MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MILES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 290227
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
827 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT ON THE WEATHER FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CONUS HAS ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATED THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING SMOKE TO BE VERY THICK BUT THINKING IT IS WORTH A
MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MILES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 290227
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
827 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT ON THE WEATHER FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CONUS HAS ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATED THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING SMOKE TO BE VERY THICK BUT THINKING IT IS WORTH A
MENTION WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MILES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
534 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
534 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 282334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
534 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282334
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
534 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKING AT VFR WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY 5 MILES OR GREATER. NO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 282113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 282113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONVECTION DUE TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEPT POP
AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM LUSK TO
CHADRON AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 6 MILES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WARMEST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY SO KEPT POP BELOW
5 PERCENT.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS INCLUDING LARAMIE...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SO INCREASED POP OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I25 TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDED MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO THE CWA FOR THE WEEK THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AT TIMES WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONE IMPULSE MOVING BY THEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY OCCUR AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THUS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS. EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS DECREASING ALOFT AS MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL WORD WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281715
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281715
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281715
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281146
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z...PERHAPS NEAR
KCYS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA TO KSNY FROM ROUGHLY 17Z
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281146
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z...PERHAPS NEAR
KCYS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA TO KSNY FROM ROUGHLY 17Z
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281146
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z...PERHAPS NEAR
KCYS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA TO KSNY FROM ROUGHLY 17Z
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281146
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR WEAK T-STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z...PERHAPS NEAR
KCYS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA TO KSNY FROM ROUGHLY 17Z
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY...WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOWING SHOWERS NOW SLOWLY
COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5820 METERS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 12 CELSIUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO YIELD 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.

SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING JUST EAST OF OUR
COUNTIES...WARMING SOUTH WINDS AND RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPELL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED DRY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO LIMITED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. MODELS BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO OUR
COUNTIES...LOOKING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
COUNTIES...FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE PARALLELING
INTERSTATE 25.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG TERM PATTERN SHOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN
THE LATE MORNING AS WELL...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A TSTM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHADRON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THRU THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIALLY
AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TUE-THURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO DRY OUT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THRU THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO IMPACT KCYS SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS IN MODERATE
RAIN. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS WELL FURTHER WEST AND COULD AFFECT
KLAR AND KRWL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA
TO KSNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAREFULLY ACROSS
CONVERSE COUNTY AS HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL RUNS. LESSENING CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAREFULLY AS
HUMIDITIES LESSEN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280552
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO IMPACT KCYS SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS IN MODERATE
RAIN. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS WELL FURTHER WEST AND COULD AFFECT
KLAR AND KRWL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA
TO KSNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280552
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO IMPACT KCYS SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS IN MODERATE
RAIN. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS WELL FURTHER WEST AND COULD AFFECT
KLAR AND KRWL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA
TO KSNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280552
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO IMPACT KCYS SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS IN MODERATE
RAIN. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS WELL FURTHER WEST AND COULD AFFECT
KLAR AND KRWL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA
TO KSNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280552
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO IMPACT KCYS SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS IN MODERATE
RAIN. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS WELL FURTHER WEST AND COULD AFFECT
KLAR AND KRWL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KAIA
TO KSNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280548
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1148 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SURVIVE AND THRIVE
THUS HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH 3 AM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE LINE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280548
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1148 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SURVIVE AND THRIVE
THUS HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH 3 AM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE LINE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280548
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1148 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SURVIVE AND THRIVE
THUS HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH 3 AM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE LINE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280548
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1148 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SURVIVE AND THRIVE
THUS HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH 3 AM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE LINE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280309
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
909 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280309
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
909 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280309
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
909 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT DID EXPANDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THIS EVENING. BASED ON WATER
VAPOR THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING A FEW MORE HOURS. MOST ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272341
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272341
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 272341
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272341
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ENDS CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 272102
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
302 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE
WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE HEAVIER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 03Z FRI.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272102
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
302 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE... AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL FRIDAY... THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES COULD SEE A FEW POP UP. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
REMAINS UNKNOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
EACH AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED THREATS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW WITH GFS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
AROUND +15 DEG C WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
INCREASING H7-H3 MOISTURE COULD YIELD ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT
JUST A BIT COOLER. THAT SAID...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE
WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE HEAVIER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 03Z FRI.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS
ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DO BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OR
IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE CARBON COUNTY...BUT LIVE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. EAST CENTRAL WYOMING (ZONE 301) IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WINDS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH CRITERIA WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY...DECENT RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY PLENTIFUL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT AND WITH BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS THERE. MILD RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT WILL BE NOTED FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. COOLER DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...QUICK DRYING OUT THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT AND WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.

FRIDAY...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT...DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP EXCEPT FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES. DECENT WARMING TREND BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS CHANGES.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND A
PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 16
CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURE ALOFT INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK QUITE SLIM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A STRONG UPPER HIGH TAKES AHOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A CONSTANT
STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF VORTICITY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE
EMPHASIS OF HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
WHETHER CONDITIONS END UP DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE
WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE HEAVIER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 03Z FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN AT
OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CONVERSE COUNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY...DECENT RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY PLENTIFUL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT AND WITH BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS THERE. MILD RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT WILL BE NOTED FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. COOLER DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...QUICK DRYING OUT THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT AND WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.

FRIDAY...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT...DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP EXCEPT FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES. DECENT WARMING TREND BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS CHANGES.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND A
PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 16
CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURE ALOFT INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK QUITE SLIM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A STRONG UPPER HIGH TAKES AHOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A CONSTANT
STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF VORTICITY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE
EMPHASIS OF HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
WHETHER CONDITIONS END UP DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE
WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE HEAVIER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 03Z FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN AT
OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CONVERSE COUNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY...DECENT RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY PLENTIFUL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT AND WITH BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS THERE. MILD RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT WILL BE NOTED FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. COOLER DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...QUICK DRYING OUT THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT AND WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.

FRIDAY...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT...DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP EXCEPT FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES. DECENT WARMING TREND BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS CHANGES.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND A
PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 16
CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURE ALOFT INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK QUITE SLIM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A STRONG UPPER HIGH TAKES AHOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A CONSTANT
STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF VORTICITY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE
EMPHASIS OF HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
WHETHER CONDITIONS END UP DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE
WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE HEAVIER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 03Z FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN AT
OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CONVERSE COUNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 271743
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY...DECENT RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY PLENTIFUL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT AND WITH BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS THERE. MILD RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT WILL BE NOTED FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. COOLER DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...QUICK DRYING OUT THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT AND WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.

FRIDAY...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT...DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP EXCEPT FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES. DECENT WARMING TREND BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS CHANGES.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND A
PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 16
CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURE ALOFT INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK QUITE SLIM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A STRONG UPPER HIGH TAKES AHOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A CONSTANT
STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF VORTICITY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE
EMPHASIS OF HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
WHETHER CONDITIONS END UP DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE
WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE HEAVIER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 03Z FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN AT
OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CONVERSE COUNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





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