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000
FXUS65 KCYS 301822 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...DESPITE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER CARBON COUNTY...WE
MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THERE WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 3 DEGREES. WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE...THOUGH THE FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
THE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ENERGY...UPSLOPE AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE
LINE.

SATURDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ALBERTA
TYPE CLIPPER...WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING SENDING THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ENOUGH LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AND WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF A
RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL WRING OUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...BREEZY AND COLD DAY WITH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE SOME
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA OCCURRING OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF A 100 KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY ATOP THE
RIDGE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AND THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. MODELS SHOW WINDS IN
THE 800-700 MB LAYER OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING INCREASING TO 50+ KTS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WITH
WAA IN PLACE...LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THESE WINDS DEVELOP
AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT ANOTHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER VORT
MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REINTENSIFY THE GRADIENT. STILL THINKING THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL
SEE A SECOND ROUND OF HIGH WINDS WHILE OROGRAPHIC SNOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
WINDS COULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NEARLY 60 KTS PROGGED AT 750 MB AND ONLY PATCHY
CIRRUS OVERHEAD TO POTENTIALLY INHIBIT MIXING. CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM CONVERSE TO BOX BUTTE
COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE VORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THIS AREA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER HIGH WINDS WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...OR IF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
EARLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF THE HIGH WINDS AND BRING RAIN/SNOW TO
THE CWA INSTEAD. THE 00Z GFS...EC AND GEM ALL SHOW VARIED
SOLUTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GEM
NEARLY 12HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND THE EC 6HRS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THIS LEVEL OF VARIABILITY ON TIMING...WILL TREND TOWARD
A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH MEANS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT QUITE REACH HIGH
WIND LEVELS. WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE REASONABLE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

CURRENTLY GETTING MVFR CATEGORY OBSERVED AT RAWLINS WY WHERE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2SM...BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT BE A PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BKN 2000FT AGL EXPECTED. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS TO MVFR ACROSS THE ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY NE AREAS LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG IN
SPOTS TONIGHT (PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY LIGHT UPSLOW DEVELOPS). WILL
ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE RAWLINS AND LARAMIE CLOSER TO WHERE ORAGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WE DONT EXPECT TO
SEE PREVAILING REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THROUGH MORNING. THE HIGHER SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 301822 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...DESPITE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER CARBON COUNTY...WE
MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THERE WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 3 DEGREES. WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE...THOUGH THE FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
THE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ENERGY...UPSLOPE AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE
LINE.

SATURDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ALBERTA
TYPE CLIPPER...WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING SENDING THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ENOUGH LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AND WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF A
RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL WRING OUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...BREEZY AND COLD DAY WITH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE SOME
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA OCCURRING OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF A 100 KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY ATOP THE
RIDGE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AND THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. MODELS SHOW WINDS IN
THE 800-700 MB LAYER OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING INCREASING TO 50+ KTS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WITH
WAA IN PLACE...LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THESE WINDS DEVELOP
AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT ANOTHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER VORT
MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REINTENSIFY THE GRADIENT. STILL THINKING THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL
SEE A SECOND ROUND OF HIGH WINDS WHILE OROGRAPHIC SNOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
WINDS COULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NEARLY 60 KTS PROGGED AT 750 MB AND ONLY PATCHY
CIRRUS OVERHEAD TO POTENTIALLY INHIBIT MIXING. CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM CONVERSE TO BOX BUTTE
COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE VORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THIS AREA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER HIGH WINDS WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...OR IF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
EARLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF THE HIGH WINDS AND BRING RAIN/SNOW TO
THE CWA INSTEAD. THE 00Z GFS...EC AND GEM ALL SHOW VARIED
SOLUTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GEM
NEARLY 12HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND THE EC 6HRS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THIS LEVEL OF VARIABILITY ON TIMING...WILL TREND TOWARD
A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH MEANS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT QUITE REACH HIGH
WIND LEVELS. WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE REASONABLE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

CURRENTLY GETTING MVFR CATEGORY OBSERVED AT RAWLINS WY WHERE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2SM...BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT BE A PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BKN 2000FT AGL EXPECTED. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS TO MVFR ACROSS THE ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY NE AREAS LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG IN
SPOTS TONIGHT (PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY LIGHT UPSLOW DEVELOPS). WILL
ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE RAWLINS AND LARAMIE CLOSER TO WHERE ORAGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND WE DONT EXPECT TO
SEE PREVAILING REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THROUGH MORNING. THE HIGHER SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 301201
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
501 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...DESPITE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER CARBON COUNTY...WE
MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THERE WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 3 DEGREES. WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE...THOUGH THE FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
THE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ENERGY...UPSLOPE AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE
LINE.

SATURDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ALBERTA
TYPE CLIPPER...WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING SENDING THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ENOUGH LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AND WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF A
RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL WRING OUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...BREEZY AND COLD DAY WITH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE SOME
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA OCCURRING OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF A 100 KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY ATOP THE
RIDGE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AND THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. MODELS SHOW WINDS IN
THE 800-700 MB LAYER OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING INCREASING TO 50+ KTS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WITH
WAA IN PLACE...LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THESE WINDS DEVELOP
AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT ANOTHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER VORT
MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REINTENSIFY THE GRADIENT. STILL THINKING THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL
SEE A SECOND ROUND OF HIGH WINDS WHILE OROGRAPHIC SNOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
WINDS COULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NEARLY 60 KTS PROGGED AT 750 MB AND ONLY PATCHY
CIRRUS OVERHEAD TO POTENTIALLY INHIBIT MIXING. CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM CONVERSE TO BOX BUTTE
COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE VORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THIS AREA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER HIGH WINDS WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...OR IF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
EARLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF THE HIGH WINDS AND BRING RAIN/SNOW TO
THE CWA INSTEAD. THE 00Z GFS...EC AND GEM ALL SHOW VARIED
SOLUTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GEM
NEARLY 12HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND THE EC 6HRS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THIS LEVEL OF VARIABILITY ON TIMING...WILL TREND TOWARD
A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH MEANS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT QUITE REACH HIGH
WIND LEVELS. WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE REASONABLE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR/IFR STILL LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT KRWL...ALTHO
BACKED OFF THE TIMING OF STRATUS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING BASED ON
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINING LIGHT. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
DEVELOP AT KLAR AND KCYS AFTER 08Z TONIGHT IN THIS NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE PATTERN WITH CIGS LEANING MORE TOWARD IFR AT KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300929
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...DESPITE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER CARBON COUNTY...WE
MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THERE WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 3 DEGREES. WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE...THOUGH THE FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
THE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ENERGY...UPSLOPE AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE
LINE.

SATURDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ALBERTA
TYPE CLIPPER...WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING SENDING THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ENOUGH LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AND WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF A
RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL WRING OUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...BREEZY AND COLD DAY WITH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE SOME
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA OCCURRING OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF A 100 KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY ATOP THE
RIDGE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AND THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. MODELS SHOW WINDS IN
THE 800-700 MB LAYER OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING INCREASING TO 50+ KTS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WITH
WAA IN PLACE...LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THESE WINDS DEVELOP
AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT ANOTHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER VORT
MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REINTENSIFY THE GRADIENT. STILL THINKING THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL
SEE A SECOND ROUND OF HIGH WINDS WHILE OROGRAPHIC SNOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
WINDS COULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NEARLY 60 KTS PROGGED AT 750 MB AND ONLY PATCHY
CIRRUS OVERHEAD TO POTENTIALLY INHIBIT MIXING. CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM CONVERSE TO BOX BUTTE
COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE VORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THIS AREA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER HIGH WINDS WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...OR IF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
EARLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF THE HIGH WINDS AND BRING RAIN/SNOW TO
THE CWA INSTEAD. THE 00Z GFS...EC AND GEM ALL SHOW VARIED
SOLUTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GEM
NEARLY 12HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND THE EC 6HRS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THIS LEVEL OF VARIABILITY ON TIMING...WILL TREND TOWARD
A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH MEANS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT QUITE REACH HIGH
WIND LEVELS. WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE REASONABLE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
CONCERN IS NEAR KRWL WHERE MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON
SATURDAY...USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300929
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...DESPITE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER CARBON COUNTY...WE
MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THERE WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 3 DEGREES. WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE...THOUGH THE FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
THE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ENERGY...UPSLOPE AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE
LINE.

SATURDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ALBERTA
TYPE CLIPPER...WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST WYOMING SENDING THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ENOUGH LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AND WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF A
RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL WRING OUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

SUNDAY...BREEZY AND COLD DAY WITH FAST NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE SOME
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA OCCURRING OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF A 100 KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY ATOP THE
RIDGE AND OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AND THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. MODELS SHOW WINDS IN
THE 800-700 MB LAYER OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING INCREASING TO 50+ KTS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WITH
WAA IN PLACE...LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL STRENGTHEN AS THESE WINDS DEVELOP
AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT ANOTHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER VORT
MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REINTENSIFY THE GRADIENT. STILL THINKING THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL
SEE A SECOND ROUND OF HIGH WINDS WHILE OROGRAPHIC SNOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
WINDS COULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NEARLY 60 KTS PROGGED AT 750 MB AND ONLY PATCHY
CIRRUS OVERHEAD TO POTENTIALLY INHIBIT MIXING. CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM CONVERSE TO BOX BUTTE
COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE VORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THIS AREA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER HIGH WINDS WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...OR IF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
EARLY ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF THE HIGH WINDS AND BRING RAIN/SNOW TO
THE CWA INSTEAD. THE 00Z GFS...EC AND GEM ALL SHOW VARIED
SOLUTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GEM
NEARLY 12HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND THE EC 6HRS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THIS LEVEL OF VARIABILITY ON TIMING...WILL TREND TOWARD
A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH MEANS WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT QUITE REACH HIGH
WIND LEVELS. WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE REASONABLE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
CONCERN IS NEAR KRWL WHERE MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON
SATURDAY...USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300505
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1005 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING IN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE INITIAL SURGE IS
VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT DROP QUITE
AS MUCH AS FORECAST SO BUMPED LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
CONCERN IS NEAR KRWL WHERE MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 300505
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1005 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING IN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE INITIAL SURGE IS
VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT DROP QUITE
AS MUCH AS FORECAST SO BUMPED LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
CONCERN IS NEAR KRWL WHERE MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300408
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
908 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING IN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE INITIAL SURGE IS
VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT DROP QUITE
AS MUCH AS FORECAST SO BUMPED LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE WY SITES BY FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 300408
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
908 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING IN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE INITIAL SURGE IS
VERY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT DROP QUITE
AS MUCH AS FORECAST SO BUMPED LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE WY SITES BY FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292351
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
451 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE WY SITES BY FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292351
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
451 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE WY SITES BY FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 292240
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT LAR THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KTS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 292240
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THOUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL
CIRRUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAJA COASTLINE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST
AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SAT. WE WILL BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...SO KEPT OUR POPS
ON THE LOW END EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR ON SAT WITH WEAK MIDLVL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO AIDING IN PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT / PERHAPS AFTER 06Z
PER THE LATEST NAM / WITH H7 TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEG
C OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEST
COLD ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON SAT AND/OR
SUN. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUN AFTN WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WYOMING. THE LLVL
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT RISING TO 60 METERS BY 12Z MON
AND REMAINING IN THE 60-70 RANGE THROUGH 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHEN HIGH
WINDS COULD EVEN SPREAD TO ZONES OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES AS MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. LLVL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT LAR THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KTS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291725
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AROUND DAWN...WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILING
OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND LIGHT RETURN SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS MAXIMUMS FOR OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
CARBON...CONVERSE AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...MOSTLY
OPAQUE...APPROACH OVER OUR CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE ISOLATED SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGE SNOW SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE DRY. SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS AREAS OF FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER CARBON COUNTY OF
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. AGAIN...COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE QPF OVER COLORADO...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WE MAY SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON AND SOUTHWEST ALBANY COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE. BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS MOS LOOKS DECENT FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
TRADITIONAL WORK WEEK WILL END WITH RELATIVELY MILD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY AND A DECENTLY SATURATED
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE BULK OF QPF WILL
LIE SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...FAST MOVING ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...SENDING THE NEXT
PLUNGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...AND A PIECE OF THE
MOTHERLODE...SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING INTO OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE STRENGTH OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

MOST OF OUR COUNTIES WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT...THUS LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A RAWLINS
TO KIMBALL LINE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT
GRAND JUNCTION AND DENVER...THOUGH BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
LIE OVER COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

00Z MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH HOW DEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS WILL DIG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM TEND TO
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...MEANING MORE FAVORABLE LFQ JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL FORCING...SO WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
WEST OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 20S-30S FOR SUNDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT WINDY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND WILL
OCCUR THRU THIS TIME ALTHO MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
FINE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL
DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH UNDER THE ENERGETIC NW FLOW. GFS/EC H7
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 12Z MONDAY TO 50-55 KTS
AND LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 50 KTS THRU THE EARLY EVENING.
THUS...COULD BE DEALING WITH A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HANGS UP WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
BREEZY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFG CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT LAR THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KTS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. A RELATIVELY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291725
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AROUND DAWN...WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILING
OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND LIGHT RETURN SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS MAXIMUMS FOR OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
CARBON...CONVERSE AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...MOSTLY
OPAQUE...APPROACH OVER OUR CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE ISOLATED SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGE SNOW SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE DRY. SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS AREAS OF FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER CARBON COUNTY OF
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. AGAIN...COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE QPF OVER COLORADO...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WE MAY SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON AND SOUTHWEST ALBANY COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE. BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS MOS LOOKS DECENT FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
TRADITIONAL WORK WEEK WILL END WITH RELATIVELY MILD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY AND A DECENTLY SATURATED
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE BULK OF QPF WILL
LIE SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...FAST MOVING ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...SENDING THE NEXT
PLUNGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...AND A PIECE OF THE
MOTHERLODE...SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING INTO OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE STRENGTH OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

MOST OF OUR COUNTIES WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT...THUS LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A RAWLINS
TO KIMBALL LINE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT
GRAND JUNCTION AND DENVER...THOUGH BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
LIE OVER COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

00Z MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH HOW DEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS WILL DIG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM TEND TO
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...MEANING MORE FAVORABLE LFQ JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL FORCING...SO WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
WEST OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 20S-30S FOR SUNDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT WINDY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND WILL
OCCUR THRU THIS TIME ALTHO MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
FINE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL
DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH UNDER THE ENERGETIC NW FLOW. GFS/EC H7
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 12Z MONDAY TO 50-55 KTS
AND LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 50 KTS THRU THE EARLY EVENING.
THUS...COULD BE DEALING WITH A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HANGS UP WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
BREEZY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFG CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT LAR THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KTS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. A RELATIVELY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291158
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
458 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AROUND DAWN...WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILING
OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND LIGHT RETURN SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS MAXIMUMS FOR OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
CARBON...CONVERSE AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...MOSTLY
OPAQUE...APPROACH OVER OUR CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE ISOLATED SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGE SNOW SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE DRY. SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS AREAS OF FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER CARBON COUNTY OF
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. AGAIN...COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE QPF OVER COLORADO...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WE MAY SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON AND SOUTHWEST ALBANY COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE. BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS MOS LOOKS DECENT FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
TRADITIONAL WORK WEEK WILL END WITH RELATIVELY MILD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY AND A DECENTLY SATURATED
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE BULK OF QPF WILL
LIE SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...FAST MOVING ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...SENDING THE NEXT
PLUNGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...AND A PIECE OF THE
MOTHERLODE...SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING INTO OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE STRENGTH OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

MOST OF OUR COUNTIES WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT...THUS LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A RAWLINS
TO KIMBALL LINE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT
GRAND JUNCTION AND DENVER...THOUGH BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
LIE OVER COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

00Z MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH HOW DEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS WILL DIG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM TEND TO
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...MEANING MORE FAVORABLE LFQ JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL FORCING...SO WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
WEST OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 20S-30S FOR SUNDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT WINDY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND WILL
OCCUR THRU THIS TIME ALTHO MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
FINE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL
DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH UNDER THE ENERGETIC NW FLOW. GFS/EC H7
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 12Z MONDAY TO 50-55 KTS
AND LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 50 KTS THRU THE EARLY EVENING.
THUS...COULD BE DEALING WITH A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HANGS UP WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
BREEZY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED HERE. LOW CIGS ARE LURKING IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WELL THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE PIX SHOW THESE
CLOUDS SHIFTING STEADILY EASTWARD SO SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR IMPACT
AT KCDR AND KAIA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
PANHANDLE...AND FOR KCYS AND KLAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. A RELATIVELY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291158
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
458 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AROUND DAWN...WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILING
OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND LIGHT RETURN SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS MAXIMUMS FOR OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
CARBON...CONVERSE AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...MOSTLY
OPAQUE...APPROACH OVER OUR CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE ISOLATED SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGE SNOW SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE DRY. SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS AREAS OF FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER CARBON COUNTY OF
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. AGAIN...COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE QPF OVER COLORADO...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WE MAY SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON AND SOUTHWEST ALBANY COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE. BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS MOS LOOKS DECENT FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
TRADITIONAL WORK WEEK WILL END WITH RELATIVELY MILD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY AND A DECENTLY SATURATED
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE BULK OF QPF WILL
LIE SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...FAST MOVING ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...SENDING THE NEXT
PLUNGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...AND A PIECE OF THE
MOTHERLODE...SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING INTO OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE STRENGTH OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

MOST OF OUR COUNTIES WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT...THUS LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A RAWLINS
TO KIMBALL LINE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT
GRAND JUNCTION AND DENVER...THOUGH BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
LIE OVER COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

00Z MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH HOW DEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS WILL DIG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM TEND TO
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...MEANING MORE FAVORABLE LFQ JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL FORCING...SO WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
WEST OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 20S-30S FOR SUNDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT WINDY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND WILL
OCCUR THRU THIS TIME ALTHO MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
FINE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL
DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH UNDER THE ENERGETIC NW FLOW. GFS/EC H7
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 12Z MONDAY TO 50-55 KTS
AND LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 50 KTS THRU THE EARLY EVENING.
THUS...COULD BE DEALING WITH A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HANGS UP WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
BREEZY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM KRWL TO KCYS...WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED HERE. LOW CIGS ARE LURKING IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WELL THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE PIX SHOW THESE
CLOUDS SHIFTING STEADILY EASTWARD SO SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR IMPACT
AT KCDR AND KAIA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
PANHANDLE...AND FOR KCYS AND KLAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. A RELATIVELY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 291105
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
405 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AROUND DAWN...WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILING
OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND LIGHT RETURN SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS MAXIMUMS FOR OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
CARBON...CONVERSE AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...MOSTLY
OPAQUE...APPROACH OVER OUR CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE ISOLATED SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGE SNOW SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE DRY. SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS AREAS OF FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER CARBON COUNTY OF
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. AGAIN...COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE QPF OVER COLORADO...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WE MAY SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON AND SOUTHWEST ALBANY COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE. BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS MOS LOOKS DECENT FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
TRADITIONAL WORK WEEK WILL END WITH RELATIVELY MILD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY AND A DECENTLY SATURATED
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE BULK OF QPF WILL
LIE SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...FAST MOVING ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...SENDING THE NEXT
PLUNGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...AND A PIECE OF THE
MOTHERLODE...SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING INTO OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE STRENGTH OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

MOST OF OUR COUNTIES WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT...THUS LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A RAWLINS
TO KIMBALL LINE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT
GRAND JUNCTION AND DENVER...THOUGH BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
LIE OVER COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

00Z MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH HOW DEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS WILL DIG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM TEND TO
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...MEANING MORE FAVORABLE LFQ JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL FORCING...SO WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
WEST OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 20S-30S FOR SUNDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT WINDY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND WILL
OCCUR THRU THIS TIME ALTHO MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
FINE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL
DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH UNDER THE ENERGETIC NW FLOW. GFS/EC H7
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 12Z MONDAY TO 50-55 KTS
AND LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 50 KTS THRU THE EARLY EVENING.
THUS...COULDBE DEALING WITH A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HANGS UP WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
BREEZY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 INCLUDING ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR TO MVFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND INTO CARBON COUNTY DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE MOUNTAINS TO BE
OBSCURED INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AND CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. A RELATIVELY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 291105
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
405 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AROUND DAWN...WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILING
OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND LIGHT RETURN SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS MAXIMUMS FOR OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
CARBON...CONVERSE AND PORTIONS OF ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD...MOSTLY
OPAQUE...APPROACH OVER OUR CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MAY SEE ISOLATED SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGE SNOW SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE DRY. SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS AREAS OF FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER CARBON COUNTY OF
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. AGAIN...COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE QPF OVER COLORADO...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WE MAY SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CARBON AND SOUTHWEST ALBANY COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE. BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS MOS LOOKS DECENT FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
TRADITIONAL WORK WEEK WILL END WITH RELATIVELY MILD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY AND A DECENTLY SATURATED
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE BULK OF QPF WILL
LIE SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...FAST MOVING ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...SENDING THE NEXT
PLUNGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...AND A PIECE OF THE
MOTHERLODE...SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING INTO OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE STRENGTH OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

MOST OF OUR COUNTIES WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT...THUS LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A RAWLINS
TO KIMBALL LINE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AT
GRAND JUNCTION AND DENVER...THOUGH BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
LIE OVER COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

00Z MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH HOW DEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS WILL DIG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM TEND TO
FAVOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION VS THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...MEANING MORE FAVORABLE LFQ JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL ADD TO THE
OVERALL FORCING...SO WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
WEST OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 20S-30S FOR SUNDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT WINDY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND WILL
OCCUR THRU THIS TIME ALTHO MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
FINE DETAILS DUE TO THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL
DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH UNDER THE ENERGETIC NW FLOW. GFS/EC H7
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 12Z MONDAY TO 50-55 KTS
AND LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 50 KTS THRU THE EARLY EVENING.
THUS...COULDBE DEALING WITH A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
HANGS UP WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND
BREEZY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 INCLUDING ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR TO MVFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND INTO CARBON COUNTY DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE MOUNTAINS TO BE
OBSCURED INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AND CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED. A RELATIVELY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEAR AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOWING UP ON WYDOT WEBCAMS NEAR THE
SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
LATEST MODEL DATA...COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW NEAR THE
SUMMIT BEFORE THE END OF THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SLIPPERY ROADS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS STRETCH OF ROAD THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE INTO
THE SNOWY RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT MOMENTARILY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 INCLUDING ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR TO MVFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND INTO CARBON COUNTY DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE MOUNTAINS TO BE
OBSCURED INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AND CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290542
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEAR AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOWING UP ON WYDOT WEBCAMS NEAR THE
SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
LATEST MODEL DATA...COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW NEAR THE
SUMMIT BEFORE THE END OF THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SLIPPERY ROADS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS STRETCH OF ROAD THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE INTO
THE SNOWY RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT MOMENTARILY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 INCLUDING ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR TO MVFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND INTO CARBON COUNTY DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE MOUNTAINS TO BE
OBSCURED INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AND CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 290332
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEAR AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOWING UP ON WYDOT WEBCAMS NEAR THE
SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
LATEST MODEL DATA...COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW NEAR THE
SUMMIT BEFORE THE END OF THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SLIPPERY ROADS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS STRETCH OF ROAD THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE INTO
THE SNOWY RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT MOMENTARILY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED TONIGHT AS
WILL ENTIRE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 290332
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEAR AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOWING UP ON WYDOT WEBCAMS NEAR THE
SUMMIT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
LATEST MODEL DATA...COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW NEAR THE
SUMMIT BEFORE THE END OF THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SLIPPERY ROADS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS STRETCH OF ROAD THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE INTO
THE SNOWY RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT MOMENTARILY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED TONIGHT AS
WILL ENTIRE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
522 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED TONIGHT AS
WILL ENTIRE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
522 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED TONIGHT AS
WILL ENTIRE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 290022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
522 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED TONIGHT AS
WILL ENTIRE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 290022
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
522 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT NUISANCE SHOWERS.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE
SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED TONIGHT AS
WILL ENTIRE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 282124
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
224 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES
OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND
PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT
QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WY PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 282124
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
224 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET. DOUGLAS RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY FELL BEHIND
THE FRONT...RANGING FROM THE 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO
THE 40S AND 50S EAST.

12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES
OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE RELAXING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOV3ES OVERHEAD. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CA TOWARD AZ AND
PRODUCE A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT
QPF IS FORECAST FROM THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WY PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S EAST AND 30S WEST...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE US-MEXICO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WY-CO STATE LINE...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM MIDLEVEL
ENERGY STAYS OUT OF REACH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE MODELS PAINT
VERY LITTLE/IF ANY QPF...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WENT AHEAD AND CUT
POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COOLING TREND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY...FORCING H7 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -8 AND -10 DEG C EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING LLVL GRADIENTS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN WY CONTRIBUTES
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. H7-H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 50
KTS DURING THAT TIME...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HIGH WIND
EPISODE FOR THE WIND PRONE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TAKING OVER THE FLOW PATTERN ON TUE/WED. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
LOW END PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOUTH OF WYOMING...THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...MJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281822 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NE. WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASED MARKEDLY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 55 MPH COMMON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS MORE INSOLATION...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE. WIND ADVISORY VERIFYING FOR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AND THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281822 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NE. WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASED MARKEDLY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 55 MPH COMMON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS MORE INSOLATION...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE. WIND ADVISORY VERIFYING FOR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AND THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281800
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NE. WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASED MARKEDLY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 55 MPH COMMON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS MORE INSOLATION...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE. WIND ADVISORY VERIFYING FOR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AND THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTPOSSIBLE.
A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 281800
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NE. WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASED MARKEDLY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 55 MPH COMMON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS MORE INSOLATION...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE. WIND ADVISORY VERIFYING FOR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AND THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTPOSSIBLE.
A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281749
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1049 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TODAY...ALONG WITH
CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 281033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TODAY...ALONG WITH
CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280905
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
205 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TODAY...ALONG WITH
CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-116-
     117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ106.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280905
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
205 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TODAY...ALONG WITH
CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-116-
     117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ106.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280905
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
205 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TODAY...ALONG WITH
CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-116-
     117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ106.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




000
FXUS65 KCYS 280537
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1037 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CHEYENNE HAS SET YET ANOTHER JANUARY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY GETTING TO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL RISE FURTHER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE 850MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT (CURRENTLY AROUND 40 METERS) WILL PEAK AT 55
METERS BY 09Z WED. THIS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STRONGEST PREFRONTAL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 03-06Z AT BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON...THEN THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
LARAMIE BEHIND THE FRONT (AROUND 09Z). MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT AT CHEYENNE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A BIT
MORE CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL GET GUSTS CLOSE TO 50
KT CONSIDERING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL.

IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. WINDS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG INTERSTATE 80 STRETCHING
FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY. THIS IS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS
SOMETHING THAT THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS IS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. EXPECT ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRI. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FROPA WILL TEND TO COMPLICATE
THINGS. CONSENSUS MOS STILL SUGGESTS MID 40S FOR HIGHS...ALTHOUGH H7
TEMPS AROUND -5 DEG C PER THE GFS/ECMWF MAKE THAT A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO BELIEVE. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS RAMP UP ON SAT/SUN ALONG WITH MOIST
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE US
AND MEXICO BORDER. OUR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE BEST AIR MASS AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE A SUB
ADVISORY EVENT. MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS
H7 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -10 DEG OVER THE WY/NE STATE LINE. A FEW
PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW MAY KEEP
AT LEAST ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALONG/WEST OF LARAMIE RANGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR AFTER 10Z AS LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF RAWLINS...SARATOGA AND LARAMIE. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS OF
40-50 KT. FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 280537
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1037 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CHEYENNE HAS SET YET ANOTHER JANUARY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY GETTING TO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL RISE FURTHER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE 850MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT (CURRENTLY AROUND 40 METERS) WILL PEAK AT 55
METERS BY 09Z WED. THIS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STRONGEST PREFRONTAL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 03-06Z AT BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON...THEN THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
LARAMIE BEHIND THE FRONT (AROUND 09Z). MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT AT CHEYENNE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A BIT
MORE CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL GET GUSTS CLOSE TO 50
KT CONSIDERING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL.

IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. WINDS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG INTERSTATE 80 STRETCHING
FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY. THIS IS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS
SOMETHING THAT THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS IS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. EXPECT ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRI. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FROPA WILL TEND TO COMPLICATE
THINGS. CONSENSUS MOS STILL SUGGESTS MID 40S FOR HIGHS...ALTHOUGH H7
TEMPS AROUND -5 DEG C PER THE GFS/ECMWF MAKE THAT A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO BELIEVE. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS RAMP UP ON SAT/SUN ALONG WITH MOIST
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE US
AND MEXICO BORDER. OUR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE BEST AIR MASS AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE A SUB
ADVISORY EVENT. MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS
H7 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -10 DEG OVER THE WY/NE STATE LINE. A FEW
PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW MAY KEEP
AT LEAST ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALONG/WEST OF LARAMIE RANGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR AFTER 10Z AS LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF RAWLINS...SARATOGA AND LARAMIE. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS OF
40-50 KT. FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272346
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
446 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CHEYENNE HAS SET YET ANOTHER JANUARY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY GETTING TO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL RISE FURTHER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE 850MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT (CURRENTLY AROUND 40 METERS) WILL PEAK AT 55
METERS BY 09Z WED. THIS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STRONGEST PREFRONTAL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 03-06Z AT BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON...THEN THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
LARAMIE BEHIND THE FRONT (AROUND 09Z). MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT AT CHEYENNE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A BIT
MORE CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL GET GUSTS CLOSE TO 50
KT CONSIDERING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL.

IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. WINDS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG INTERSTATE 80 STRETCHING
FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY. THIS IS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS
SOMETHING THAT THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS IS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. EXPECT ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRI. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FROPA WILL TEND TO COMPLICATE
THINGS. CONSENSUS MOS STILL SUGGESTS MID 40S FOR HIGHS...ALTHOUGH H7
TEMPS AROUND -5 DEG C PER THE GFS/ECMWF MAKE THAT A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO BELIEVE. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS RAMP UP ON SAT/SUN ALONG WITH MOIST
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE US
AND MEXICO BORDER. OUR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE BEST AIR MASS AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE A SUB
ADVISORY EVENT. MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS
H7 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -10 DEG OVER THE WY/NE STATE LINE. A FEW
PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW MAY KEEP
AT LEAST ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALONG/WEST OF LARAMIE RANGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER 09Z AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. MOUNTAINS WILL
BECOME OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KT. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 272346
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
446 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CHEYENNE HAS SET YET ANOTHER JANUARY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY GETTING TO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL RISE FURTHER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE 850MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT (CURRENTLY AROUND 40 METERS) WILL PEAK AT 55
METERS BY 09Z WED. THIS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STRONGEST PREFRONTAL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 03-06Z AT BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON...THEN THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
LARAMIE BEHIND THE FRONT (AROUND 09Z). MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT AT CHEYENNE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A BIT
MORE CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL GET GUSTS CLOSE TO 50
KT CONSIDERING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL.

IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. WINDS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG INTERSTATE 80 STRETCHING
FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY. THIS IS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS
SOMETHING THAT THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS IS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. EXPECT ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRI. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FROPA WILL TEND TO COMPLICATE
THINGS. CONSENSUS MOS STILL SUGGESTS MID 40S FOR HIGHS...ALTHOUGH H7
TEMPS AROUND -5 DEG C PER THE GFS/ECMWF MAKE THAT A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO BELIEVE. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS RAMP UP ON SAT/SUN ALONG WITH MOIST
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE US
AND MEXICO BORDER. OUR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE BEST AIR MASS AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE A SUB
ADVISORY EVENT. MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS
H7 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -10 DEG OVER THE WY/NE STATE LINE. A FEW
PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW MAY KEEP
AT LEAST ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALONG/WEST OF LARAMIE RANGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER 09Z AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. MOUNTAINS WILL
BECOME OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF RAWLINS AND SARATOGA. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KT. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 272135
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CHEYENNE HAS SET YET ANOTHER JANUARY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY GETTING TO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN
TO INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS. LLVL GRADIENTS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL RISE FURTHER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE 850MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT (CURRENTLY AROUND 40 METERS) WILL PEAK AT 55
METERS BY 09Z WED. THIS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STRONGEST PREFRONTAL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY 03-06Z AT BORDEAUX AND ARLINGTON...THEN THE WINDS
WILL PICK UP ALONG INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE
BEHIND THE FRONT (AROUND 09Z). MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING
TO 25-30 KTS AT CHEYENNE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL GET GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KTS
CONSIDERING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL.

IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. WINDS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG INTERSTATE 80 STRETCHING
FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY. THIS IS WHERE GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS
SOMETHING THAT THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WITH
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING TROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS IS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. EXPECT ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRI. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS FOR FRIDAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FROPA WILL TEND TO COMPLICATE
THINGS. CONSENSUS MOS STILL SUGGESTS MID 40S FOR HIGHS...ALTHOUGH H7
TEMPS AROUND -5 DEG C PER THE GFS/ECMWF MAKE THAT A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO BELIEVE. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS RAMP UP ON SAT/SUN ALONG WITH MOIST
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE US
AND MEXICO BORDER. OUR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE BEST AIR MASS AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME IT IS LOOKING LIKE A SUB
ADVISORY EVENT. MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT OR SUN AS
H7 TEMPS PLUNGE TO AROUND -10 DEG OVER THE WY/NE STATE LINE. A FEW
PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW MAY KEEP
AT LEAST ISOLATED PCPN CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET AGL OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA EARLY ON WED MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST AT KRWL AFTER 09Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





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