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000
FXUS65 KCYS 190944
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
344 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
KS...WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST NE TO THE CO-WY BORDER SOUTH OF
CHEYENNE. 6HRLY PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATED
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVED SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH AND NORTHEAST CO...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 40S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS
IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
THE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS ENTERS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. THE MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES WITH ANOTHER PASSING WAVE TUESDAY.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WILL PREVAIL EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND UPPER
50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

MILD BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS IN A
GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. INITIALLY THE CWA WILL
BE UNDER A CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMFLOWS BEFORE BECOMING MORE WEST TO SWLY FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A PUSH OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL SINK DOWN THE PLAINS
WEDS AND BACK UP AGAINST THE MTNS WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ERODING BACK EAST ON FRIDAY. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SET
OFF SCTD SHOWERS LATE WEDS AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THEN AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

SCTD MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SE WY TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LINGERED OVER THE DISTRICTS
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH LOWERING
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...MJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 190524
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1123 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM ON IR IMAGERY...AND THE BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST MORE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...SO ALLOWED THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS THINKING. EARLIER ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FEW STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE ARLINGTON AREA AND ON UP INTO THE SNOWY RANGE AND
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND WOULD MOVE SLOW TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING... SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SNOW WOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS. ENDED THE HEADLINES AT 11PM AS IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RAPID WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THE BAND WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND SHIFTED ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CANCEL ALL WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

ALSO...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE SUMMIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
WEBCAMS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLIER...AND HRRR KEEPS
THE FOG AROUND THROUGH 11PM-12AM.

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)

AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME RAIN AND SNOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  CIGS IMPVG DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 190524
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1123 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM ON IR IMAGERY...AND THE BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST MORE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...SO ALLOWED THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS THINKING. EARLIER ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FEW STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE ARLINGTON AREA AND ON UP INTO THE SNOWY RANGE AND
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND WOULD MOVE SLOW TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING... SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SNOW WOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS. ENDED THE HEADLINES AT 11PM AS IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RAPID WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THE BAND WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND SHIFTED ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CANCEL ALL WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

ALSO...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE SUMMIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
WEBCAMS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLIER...AND HRRR KEEPS
THE FOG AROUND THROUGH 11PM-12AM.

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)

AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME RAIN AND SNOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  CIGS IMPVG DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 190508
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1108 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM ON IR IMAGERY...AND THE BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST MORE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...SO ALLOWED THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS THINKING. EARLIER ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FEW STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE ARLINGTON AREA AND ON UP INTO THE SNOWY RANGE AND
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND WOULD MOVE SLOW TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING... SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SNOW WOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS. ENDED THE HEADLINES AT 11PM AS IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RAPID WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THE BAND WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND SHIFTED ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CANCEL ALL WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

ALSO...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE SUMMIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
WEBCAMS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLIER...AND HRRR KEEPS
THE FOG AROUND THROUGH 11PM-12AM.

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 190508
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1108 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM ON IR IMAGERY...AND THE BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST MORE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...SO ALLOWED THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS THINKING. EARLIER ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FEW STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE ARLINGTON AREA AND ON UP INTO THE SNOWY RANGE AND
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND WOULD MOVE SLOW TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING... SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SNOW WOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS. ENDED THE HEADLINES AT 11PM AS IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RAPID WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THE BAND WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND SHIFTED ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CANCEL ALL WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

ALSO...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE SUMMIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
WEBCAMS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLIER...AND HRRR KEEPS
THE FOG AROUND THROUGH 11PM-12AM.

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 190345
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS THINKING. EARLIER ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FEW STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE ARLINGTON AREA AND ON UP INTO THE SNOWY RANGE AND
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND WOULD MOVE SLOW TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING... SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SNOW WOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS. ENDED THE HEADLINES AT 11PM AS IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RAPID WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THE BAND WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND SHIFTED ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CANCEL ALL WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

ALSO...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE SUMMIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
WEBCAMS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLIER...AND HRRR KEEPS
THE FOG AROUND THROUGH 11PM-12AM.

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-112-113.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 190345
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS THINKING. EARLIER ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A FEW STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE ARLINGTON AREA AND ON UP INTO THE SNOWY RANGE AND
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND WOULD MOVE SLOW TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING... SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SNOW WOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS. ENDED THE HEADLINES AT 11PM AS IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RAPID WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THE BAND WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND SHIFTED ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CANCEL ALL WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

ALSO...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE SUMMIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
WEBCAMS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLIER...AND HRRR KEEPS
THE FOG AROUND THROUGH 11PM-12AM.

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-112-113.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 182347
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
547 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-112-113.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 182347
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
547 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-112-113.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 182347
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
547 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-112-113.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 182347
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
547 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AREA STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PANHANDLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
UNLIKELY. A ROUGE FUNNEL CLOUD AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-112-113.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 182243
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
443 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 182243
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
443 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

LOTS OF WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES IN A NARROW BAND...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON
COUNTY...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HEAVY BAND...MAINLY LOOKING AT LIGHT NON
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE DEFORMATION AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW KICKER PUSHES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT IT WILL ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITION MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM MDT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY TORNADO THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO...LIMITED SHEAR IS ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OFF VERY SHORT LIVED AND WEAK TORNADIC ACTIVITY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THAT TOO WILL QUICKLY WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS NORTHERN WINDS WHICH WILL RAMP UP
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS...MAINLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE AS THE SNOW BAND
SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS. NAM
AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KT
WINDS AT CHEYENNE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. VERY WELL COULD SEE
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT THIS
COMBINATIONS DOES INDEED OCCUR. ALSO WINDS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES GIVEN
WINTER WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE HEADLINES...BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.

QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE PICTURE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. MAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN/HIGH
VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME BY TUES AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
VEERING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. KEPT TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT KEPT SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT LLVL STRATUS DECK.

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO FORM A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS OF COLORADO BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE I80 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY SHOWING THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER CONVERSE...CARBON...AND
ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST NEAR A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSNY AND JUST EAST OF KCYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE TSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
WINDY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BUT GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND DRY. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LATE NEXT
WEEK...MAYBE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 182043
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY AND MORRILL COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM. BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS...THE MAIN THREATS ARE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE WATCH COUNTIES. MOST LIKELY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS COLD OUTFLOW
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING
ANY THREAT FOR TORNADOS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN KRWL AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRWL...AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLAR. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCYS...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 182043
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY AND MORRILL COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM. BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS...THE MAIN THREATS ARE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE WATCH COUNTIES. MOST LIKELY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS COLD OUTFLOW
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING
ANY THREAT FOR TORNADOS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN KRWL AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRWL...AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLAR. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCYS...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 182043
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY AND MORRILL COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM. BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS...THE MAIN THREATS ARE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE WATCH COUNTIES. MOST LIKELY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS COLD OUTFLOW
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING
ANY THREAT FOR TORNADOS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN KRWL AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRWL...AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLAR. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCYS...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 182043
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY AND MORRILL COUNTY IN THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM. BASED ON CURRENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS...THE MAIN THREATS ARE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE WATCH COUNTIES. MOST LIKELY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS COLD OUTFLOW
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING
ANY THREAT FOR TORNADOS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN KRWL AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRWL...AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLAR. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCYS...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181745
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN KRWL AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRWL...AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLAR. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCYS...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181745
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN KRWL AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRWL...AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLAR. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCYS...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 181745
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN KRWL AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRWL...AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KLAR. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCYS...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181736
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFIY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMLATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 181736
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALBANY COUNTY AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY TODAY. ADDED THE ARLINGTON ZONE TO
THE WARNING BASE ON LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOWING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
THE BAND OF HEAVY TROWAL PRECIPITATION SETTING UP AT THIS TIME AND
SURFACE OBS AND WEB CAMS VERIFIY THE HEAVY SNOW. MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE MOST LIKELY TOO WARM AROUND
ARLINGTON GIVEN WHAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST AND WEST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION BAND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS ON ROADS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING AND HIGH SUN ANGLE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF THE
SNOW...EVEN WITHIN THE HEAVY BAND. REGARDLESS ROADS WILL AT LEAST
BE SLUSHY AT TIMES...IF NOT COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED. MOST SNOW
ACCUMLATIONS WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND OVER CURRENT SNOW
COVER.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP WEST
OF THE THIS AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015N

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-112-113-115.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181610
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1010 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181610
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1010 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE TROWAL THIS
MORNING. THE TROWAL WHICH IS VERY DISTINGUISHABLE ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT IT WILL STALL AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER PUSHES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE
PLAINS.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS TROWAL PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SNOW BUT SOME PLACES WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST A BIT MORE. LARAMIE SHOULD SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AROUND LARAMIE AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS WAYS WITH
WET TO SLUSHY ROADS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE COLD NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY
AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 181151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 181151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 181151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING WESTWARD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AT CYS BUT PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 03Z) WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181026 RRA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE TO AROUND
THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 12Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS WY...EXPECT
LOWER VIS IN LIGHT SNOW. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 181026 RRA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY...SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...THUS HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

TONIGHT...FINALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND COOL WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR OUR
SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT TRANQUIL AND THEN END
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ON MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -6C...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WE FINALLY GET TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME BY TUES
AND ESPECIALLY INTO WED...BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON THURS AFTN...SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT OF TSTMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
ARIZONA INTO COLORADO ON FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP COULD BE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE
AROUND -2C...SO COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CASE WHERE SNOW IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE TO AROUND
THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 12Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS WY...EXPECT
LOWER VIS IN LIGHT SNOW. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AND PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 180600
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1200 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE TO AROUND
THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 12Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS WY...EXPECT
LOWER VIS IN LIGHT SNOW. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 180600
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1200 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE TO AROUND
THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 12Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS WY...EXPECT
LOWER VIS IN LIGHT SNOW. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 180600
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1200 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE TO AROUND
THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 12Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS WY...EXPECT
LOWER VIS IN LIGHT SNOW. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 180600
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1200 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE TO AROUND
THE LARAMIE RANGE BY 12Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS WY...EXPECT
LOWER VIS IN LIGHT SNOW. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 180006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
606 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LITTLE REPREIVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONVECTION WANES AND STRATUS BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
LOOKING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST
AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 180006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
606 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LITTLE REPREIVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONVECTION WANES AND STRATUS BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
LOOKING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST
AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 180006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
606 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LITTLE REPREIVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONVECTION WANES AND STRATUS BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
LOOKING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST
AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 180006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
606 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LITTLE REPREIVE IN THE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONVECTION WANES AND STRATUS BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
LOOKING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST
AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 172204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
404 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS FOG...RAIN...AND
SNOW AFFECT THE REGION. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 172204
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
404 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A WILD AND CRAZY WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. PTYPE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A
HUGE CHALLENGE WITH RAIN...SNOW...HAIL AND THUNDER ALL OBSERVED AT
KCYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER WEST...SNOW IS DOMINANT
AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH WITH VDW SITTING AT 28
DEGREES AT 21Z. HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RWL AND CYS. ONGOING WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. DOWNGRADED CHEYENNE TO AN
ADVISORY AS SNOW LEVELS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 6250 FEET...
RESULTING IN RAIN CUTTING BACK ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS
IS HELPING TURN THINGS MORE SHOWERY BUT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPES PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
EAST OF CHEYENNE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS GOING. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS WARM FRONTAL SETUP WITH REALLY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC IS CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NEAR BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS.

ON THE WINTER SIDE...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE NEAR TERM TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT IS IN THAT LOCATION THAT THE
BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING COINCIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT ROAD SURFACES
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER THE I80 SUMMIT. THE
MODELS BRING THE MAIN VORT LOBE NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z. GFS/NAM/ECM ALL
SHOW LLVL WINDS TURNING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN PCPN ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT. BEST GUESS
IS WE WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH A LOT
OF RAIN/SLUSH AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPS / ESPECIALLY WITH
A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING / ROADS COULD BE QUITE NASTY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THAT WAS OUR REASONING FOR KEEPING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CITY OF CHEYENNE. EXTENDED ALL OTHER
WARNINGS THROUGH 12Z SAT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THAT TIME. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN MORE THAN
A LITTLE BULLISH WITH DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AFTN/EVE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS A KICKER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FORCES H7 TEMPS BELOW -3 C WITH A COLD
FROPA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS PCPN WILL
BE AND IF WINTER HEADLINES NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALL MODELS
DO PAINT AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 12Z
SUN THOUGH...SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW AS WELL. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. H7-H3 HPA
RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING WHICH WOULD IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR
BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN TODAY. THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE PTNL
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM CO AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THETA-E RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THE STABLE AIR MOVING RIGHT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO
THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TSTMS. A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER WESTERN AREAS...ENHANCING
PCPN RATES IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THE KICKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE THE NEXT UNSETTLED PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS FOG...RAIN...AND
SNOW AFFECT THE REGION. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHOT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO FIRE CONCERNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 171826
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS AM FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG
THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW. ROAD CLOSURES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINTER CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS LARGE ACCIDENTS. NO DOUBT THAT HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW TODAY...BUT A RECENT ANALYSIS
OF DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SUGGESTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
RIGHT ON OUR DOOR STEP...BACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME. WE ARE
FIGHTING CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH H7-H8 TEMPS LIKELY
TO RISE 1-2 DEG C THROUGH AFTN...BUT MODEST COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT. WE
STILL THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT WE SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME RAIN IN CHEYENNE SOON. AT MOST...EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHEYENNE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANY HEAVIER/INSTABILITY DRIVEN BANDS WILL LIKELY
FALL AS SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.

SFC TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TO OUR EAST AND WE COULD START TO
SEE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING STRATUS FROM
CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MODELED CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG...SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS FOG...RAIN...AND
SNOW AFFECT THE REGION. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 171826
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS AM FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG
THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW. ROAD CLOSURES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINTER CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS LARGE ACCIDENTS. NO DOUBT THAT HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW TODAY...BUT A RECENT ANALYSIS
OF DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SUGGESTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
RIGHT ON OUR DOOR STEP...BACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME. WE ARE
FIGHTING CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH H7-H8 TEMPS LIKELY
TO RISE 1-2 DEG C THROUGH AFTN...BUT MODEST COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT. WE
STILL THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT WE SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME RAIN IN CHEYENNE SOON. AT MOST...EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHEYENNE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANY HEAVIER/INSTABILITY DRIVEN BANDS WILL LIKELY
FALL AS SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.

SFC TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TO OUR EAST AND WE COULD START TO
SEE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING STRATUS FROM
CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MODELED CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG...SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS FOG...RAIN...AND
SNOW AFFECT THE REGION. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 171826
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS AM FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG
THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW. ROAD CLOSURES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINTER CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS LARGE ACCIDENTS. NO DOUBT THAT HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW TODAY...BUT A RECENT ANALYSIS
OF DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SUGGESTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
RIGHT ON OUR DOOR STEP...BACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME. WE ARE
FIGHTING CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH H7-H8 TEMPS LIKELY
TO RISE 1-2 DEG C THROUGH AFTN...BUT MODEST COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT. WE
STILL THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT WE SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME RAIN IN CHEYENNE SOON. AT MOST...EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHEYENNE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANY HEAVIER/INSTABILITY DRIVEN BANDS WILL LIKELY
FALL AS SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.

SFC TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TO OUR EAST AND WE COULD START TO
SEE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING STRATUS FROM
CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MODELED CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG...SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS FOG...RAIN...AND
SNOW AFFECT THE REGION. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 171826
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS AM FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG
THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW. ROAD CLOSURES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINTER CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS LARGE ACCIDENTS. NO DOUBT THAT HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW TODAY...BUT A RECENT ANALYSIS
OF DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SUGGESTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
RIGHT ON OUR DOOR STEP...BACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME. WE ARE
FIGHTING CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH H7-H8 TEMPS LIKELY
TO RISE 1-2 DEG C THROUGH AFTN...BUT MODEST COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT. WE
STILL THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT WE SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME RAIN IN CHEYENNE SOON. AT MOST...EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHEYENNE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANY HEAVIER/INSTABILITY DRIVEN BANDS WILL LIKELY
FALL AS SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.

SFC TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TO OUR EAST AND WE COULD START TO
SEE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING STRATUS FROM
CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MODELED CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG...SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS FOG...RAIN...AND
SNOW AFFECT THE REGION. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ103-105-
     106-110-112-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 171711
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1111 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS AM FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG
THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW. ROAD CLOSURES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINTER CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS LARGE ACCIDENTS. NO DOUBT THAT HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW TODAY...BUT A RECENT ANALYSIS
OF DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SUGGESTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
RIGHT ON OUR DOOR STEP...BACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME. WE ARE
FIGHTING CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH H7-H8 TEMPS LIKELY
TO RISE 1-2 DEG C THROUGH AFTN...BUT MODEST COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT. WE
STILL THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT WE SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME RAIN IN CHEYENNE SOON. AT MOST...EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHEYENNE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANY HEAVIER/INSTABILITY DRIVEN BANDS WILL LIKELY
FALL AS SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.

SFC TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TO OUR EAST AND WE COULD START TO
SEE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING STRATUS FROM
CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MODELED CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG...SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IN SNOW...RAIN AND FOG...WIDESPREAD
IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND
SIDNEY...WITH VFR AND MVFR PREVAILING AT CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND
SCOTTSBLUFF.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ114>118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 171711
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1111 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS AM FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG
THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW. ROAD CLOSURES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINTER CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS LARGE ACCIDENTS. NO DOUBT THAT HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW TODAY...BUT A RECENT ANALYSIS
OF DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SUGGESTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
RIGHT ON OUR DOOR STEP...BACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME. WE ARE
FIGHTING CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH H7-H8 TEMPS LIKELY
TO RISE 1-2 DEG C THROUGH AFTN...BUT MODEST COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT. WE
STILL THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT WE SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME RAIN IN CHEYENNE SOON. AT MOST...EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHEYENNE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANY HEAVIER/INSTABILITY DRIVEN BANDS WILL LIKELY
FALL AS SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.

SFC TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER TO OUR EAST AND WE COULD START TO
SEE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING STRATUS FROM
CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MODELED CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG...SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IN SNOW...RAIN AND FOG...WIDESPREAD
IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND
SIDNEY...WITH VFR AND MVFR PREVAILING AT CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND
SCOTTSBLUFF.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ114>118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 171017
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
417 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IN SNOW...RAIN AND FOG...WIDESPREAD
IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND
SIDNEY...WITH VFR AND MVFR PREVAILING AT CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND
SCOTTSBLUFF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-110-112.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 171017
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
417 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IN SNOW...RAIN AND FOG...WIDESPREAD
IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND
SIDNEY...WITH VFR AND MVFR PREVAILING AT CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND
SCOTTSBLUFF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-110-112.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 171017
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
417 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IN SNOW...RAIN AND FOG...WIDESPREAD
IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND
SIDNEY...WITH VFR AND MVFR PREVAILING AT CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND
SCOTTSBLUFF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-110-112.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 171017
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
417 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLOSED LOW OVR THE FOUR CORNERS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EVER SO
SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS COLORADO THIS MORNING. IT
WILL BE SLOW IN DOING SO...ONLY REACHING BETWEEN SALIDA/COLORADO
SPRINGS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WCB HAS BEEN EFFICIENT IN
ADVECTING MOISTURE THUS FAR...THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY DRY SLOT EXTENDING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ADDL SNOW BANDS...IN ADDITION TO JUST HOW
MUCH THE AREA CAN WARM TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND
FREEZING BETWEEN 6-7 KFT WHICH HAS MITIGATED THE IMPACTS OF
FALLING SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AT LEAST IN THE CHEYENNE AREA...WITH
SOME MELTING OCCURRING UPON IMPACT. THIS CHANGES ABOVE 7 KFT WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A FAIR
JOB OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURE
PROGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE NEXT VORT LOBE AND POCKET OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING ADDL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY HAVE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVR THE SRN PLAINS MAY ROB
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ADDL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES AND ALBEIT WEAK DAYTIME INSOLATION ARE
EXPECTED TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE IMPACTS AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CHEYENNE. THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT OVR THE HIER ELEVATIONS OVR
THE SUMMIT HOWEVER WHERE COLDER TEMPS WILL PERSIST. AS FOR
HEADLINES...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
AND THE LARAMIE RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY AND SNOWY RANGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S AT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CYCLING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOW CHANCES TO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S EVERYWHERE FOR
SATURDAY.

MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE
AREAS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SUNDAY...CONTINUED COOL WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING HEATING...AND WINDY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED GRADIENTS. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC TYPE SNOWS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...OVER AND NEAR OUR SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE DRY. SLOW WARMING
TREND TEMPERED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MILD AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
FROM AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE 17/00Z
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND QPF OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHICH IS QUITE LIKELY OVERDONE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND KEEP LOW END POPS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IN SNOW...RAIN AND FOG...WIDESPREAD
IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND
SIDNEY...WITH VFR AND MVFR PREVAILING AT CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND
SCOTTSBLUFF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ103-
     105-106-110-112.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 170453
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1053 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP FILLING IN OVER NORTEASTERN
COLORADO. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...MOVING DUE NORTH...SO OUR DRY
SLOT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS GETTING EDGED
EASTWARD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LATE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE BEST TIME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS EVENING FROM THE 300-310K
PRESSURE SURFACES. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTERWEATHER
ADVISORY WE HAVE GOING FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS WELL AS INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA AS ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS OVER AN INCH OF STORM TOTAL
QPF WITH THIS EVENT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING ADVISORIES
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND POSSIBLY PLATTE
COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...SO MAYBE THERE WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE MELTING. DECIDED TO
LET THE NIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS BEFORE ISSUING
ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR.LIFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY
CONFINED TO KLAR AND KCYS WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SNOW.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT INDICATES MOE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS IFR/LIFR
SPREADING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE
09-10Z TIMEFRAME AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 170453
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1053 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP FILLING IN OVER NORTEASTERN
COLORADO. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...MOVING DUE NORTH...SO OUR DRY
SLOT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS GETTING EDGED
EASTWARD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LATE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE BEST TIME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS EVENING FROM THE 300-310K
PRESSURE SURFACES. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTERWEATHER
ADVISORY WE HAVE GOING FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS WELL AS INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA AS ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS OVER AN INCH OF STORM TOTAL
QPF WITH THIS EVENT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING ADVISORIES
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND POSSIBLY PLATTE
COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...SO MAYBE THERE WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE MELTING. DECIDED TO
LET THE NIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS BEFORE ISSUING
ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR.LIFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY
CONFINED TO KLAR AND KCYS WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SNOW.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT INDICATES MOE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS IFR/LIFR
SPREADING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE
09-10Z TIMEFRAME AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 162352
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
552 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP FILLING IN OVER NORTEASTERN
COLORADO. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...MOVING DUE NORTH...SO OUR DRY
SLOT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS GETTING EDGED
EASTWARD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LATE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE BEST TIME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS EVENING FROM THE 300-310K
PRESSURE SURFACES. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTERWEATHER
ADVISORY WE HAVE GOING FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS WELL AS INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA AS ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS OVER AN INCH OF STORM TOTAL
QPF WITH THIS EVENT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING ADVISORIES
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND POSSIBLY PLATTE
COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...SO MAYBE THERE WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE MELTING. DECIDED TO
LET THE NIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS BEFORE ISSUING
ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY LOW OVERNIGHT AS LLVL
UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z FRI...AND
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SAT. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB...SO MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 162352
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
552 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP FILLING IN OVER NORTEASTERN
COLORADO. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...MOVING DUE NORTH...SO OUR DRY
SLOT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS GETTING EDGED
EASTWARD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LATE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE BEST TIME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS EVENING FROM THE 300-310K
PRESSURE SURFACES. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTERWEATHER
ADVISORY WE HAVE GOING FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS WELL AS INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA AS ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS OVER AN INCH OF STORM TOTAL
QPF WITH THIS EVENT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING ADVISORIES
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND POSSIBLY PLATTE
COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...SO MAYBE THERE WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE MELTING. DECIDED TO
LET THE NIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS BEFORE ISSUING
ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY LOW OVERNIGHT AS LLVL
UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z FRI...AND
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SAT. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB...SO MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 162050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
250 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 162050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
250 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 162050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
250 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 162050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
250 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW ENE
DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO LATER TONIGHT BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AGAIN
OVER COLORADO. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF SW CANADA AND PICKS UP THE
LOW...MOVING IT EAST INTO KANSAS AND DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THE
SNOWYS. ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER KANSAS
WHICH COULD CUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THIS AREA AND REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
REGARDLESS BUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS AROUND CHEYENNE SNOWFALL COULD
TURN OUT GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK BEING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER WX ADVY BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE IT.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO THE LAR
RANGE WHERE EXPECTED WARMING TODAY DID NOT OCCUR DUE TO SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING. SFC WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
THUS WAA WILL BE LIMITED IF AT ALL IN THIS AREA. THUS EXPECT PCPN
TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THUS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
NEXT EXPECTED LULL. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY AS SOME
WARMING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OUR PROBLEM CHILD UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SUN AS A
STRONG KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C ON SUN AM BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FROPA...SO EXPECT THE PTYPE TO BE SNOW. THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY WED
AS RIDGING FINALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD...ALLOWING H7 TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENEROUS RAIN AN/OR
SNOWS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
MILD WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-
     110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 161805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1205 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 161805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1205 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 161805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1205 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 161805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1205 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET BY LATE AFTN. KLAR AND KRWL WILL SEE
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FOR KCYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR PANHANDLE
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WY
AND THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. RAIN/SNOW RATES
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS
LIKELY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 09Z FRI. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 161251
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
651 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS LLVL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS. AFTER A
LULL THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BY AROUND
18Z. KLAR WILL CARRY THE GREATEST IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. KRWL WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL...HOWEVER LIGHTER RATES WONT PUSH VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS KLAR. KCYS IS PROBABLY THE TRICKIEST LOCATION AS THE SNOW
LEVELS HOVER AROUND ITS ELEVATION. FOR NOW EXPECT -SN EARLY TO MIX
WITH RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCATIONS IN WRN NEBRASKA
WILL SEE ALL -RA DURING THIS EVENT AS WARMER TEMPS PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
     FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 161251
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
651 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS LLVL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS. AFTER A
LULL THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BY AROUND
18Z. KLAR WILL CARRY THE GREATEST IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. KRWL WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL...HOWEVER LIGHTER RATES WONT PUSH VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS KLAR. KCYS IS PROBABLY THE TRICKIEST LOCATION AS THE SNOW
LEVELS HOVER AROUND ITS ELEVATION. FOR NOW EXPECT -SN EARLY TO MIX
WITH RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCATIONS IN WRN NEBRASKA
WILL SEE ALL -RA DURING THIS EVENT AS WARMER TEMPS PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
     FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 161251
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
651 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS LLVL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS. AFTER A
LULL THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BY AROUND
18Z. KLAR WILL CARRY THE GREATEST IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. KRWL WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL...HOWEVER LIGHTER RATES WONT PUSH VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS KLAR. KCYS IS PROBABLY THE TRICKIEST LOCATION AS THE SNOW
LEVELS HOVER AROUND ITS ELEVATION. FOR NOW EXPECT -SN EARLY TO MIX
WITH RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCATIONS IN WRN NEBRASKA
WILL SEE ALL -RA DURING THIS EVENT AS WARMER TEMPS PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
     FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 161251
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
651 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SIGNIFICANT STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...HOWEVER
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY THROUGH THIS MORNING) AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN COLORADO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPING IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTN. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z FRI IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LIKELY...THE TRICKIER PART OF THIS FCST INVOLVED THE SNOW
LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT
TO SFC TEMPS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS 700MB TEMPS AT CHEYENNE RISE FROM -4C
THIS MORNING TO -1C BY FRI MORNING. THE CYS SOUNDING FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SFC TEMPS OF 2-3C WITH COMPLETE SATURATION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...DESPITE THE STRONG LLVL LIFT...THINKING
IS THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ELEVATIONS OF 6250-5500 FT WITH THIS EVENT. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND EAST PLATTE
COUNTY WITH THIS REASONING...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN ANY COOLER OR IF ANY DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SOME
WET-BULBING. THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS ALL SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6500 FT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 7500 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE TO
ARLINGTON AND ALSO FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.  WHILE TRAVEL WILL BE
AFFECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM CHEYENNE TO ARLINGTON...THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FROM BUFORD TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS FCSTED.

BY FRI AFTN THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTN. DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
AT 18Z FRI AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL
ZONES EXPECT MAYBE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
BAND OF PRECIP IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CARBON
TO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-2.0 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WELL NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE WOBBLED AROUND COLORADO FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 3 DAYS LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CARRY LINGERING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN INTO SATURDAY. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN PINWHEELING A FINAL VORT LOBE SOUTH TO
NORTH THRU THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS TARGET WRN AND NRN ZONES
WITH THE BEST AXIS OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. FINALLY...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FULLY PHASE INTO THE NRN
STREAM BY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER WITH
KICKER SYSTEM HOWEVER. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT DRIER MON-TUE...THOUGH STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIER TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING ADDL
SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA WED-THU. NONE OF THESE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THO. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NR 50 IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S TO NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. THESE SHOULD
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS LLVL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS. AFTER A
LULL THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BY AROUND
18Z. KLAR WILL CARRY THE GREATEST IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. KRWL WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL...HOWEVER LIGHTER RATES WONT PUSH VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS KLAR. KCYS IS PROBABLY THE TRICKIEST LOCATION AS THE SNOW
LEVELS HOVER AROUND ITS ELEVATION. FOR NOW EXPECT -SN EARLY TO MIX
WITH RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCATIONS IN WRN NEBRASKA
WILL SEE ALL -RA DURING THIS EVENT AS WARMER TEMPS PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL AND VERY WET
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
     FOR WYZ114>117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
     FRIDAY FOR WYZ103-105-106-110-112.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




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