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000
FXUS65 KCYS 270504
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1004 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN THE LOWEST AND SNOWFALL RATES THE HIGHEST
AT CHEYENNE REALLY ALL DAY LONG. THIS AS LLVL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE FAVORABLE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. 12/18Z MODELS
SHOW LLVL LIFT INCREASING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THRU THE REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. SO IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING WRN FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS EFFECTIVE THRU 10Z FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN AREAS NEAREST THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE. LIFT/SNOW WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL/H5 TROUGH FRIDAY 09-12Z. AMOUNTS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF LARAMIE COUNTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO AT LARAMIE... WHEATLAND AND
KIMBALL. RAWLINS AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE NOTHING AT ALL OR JUST SOME FLURRIES.
FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE ONLY PROGD TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO DONT
EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A CONCERN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

QUICK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL USHER IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BENEATH A VERY BRIEF
LLVL THERMAL RIDGING. EVEN SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS AHEAD OF THE FORMING CUT-OFF
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON
SATURDAY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
RESULTANT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING SET-UP. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT TO REMAIN SOUTH OVER COLORADO...SHOULD SEE SOME AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A RATHER COLD PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE MILDEST DAY THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THE CWA WILL BE UNDER CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN ONE STREAM EMANATING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CAL COAST. STILL CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AS A COLD SFC HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON MONDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW CREATING A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROF
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LEE TROFFING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE COLDER
AIR AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMING TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND ADVECT OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL THEN DROP SOUTH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUITE COLD AGAIN WEDS
WITH SNOW ENDING EARLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS WY AND
THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES ACROSS LEAVING A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. MAINLY DRY THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

PROBLEM AREAS LOOK TO BE KCYS AND OUR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AIRPORTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WIND. WORST
AREA WILL BE KCYS WHICH IS CURRENTLY IFR IN SNOW. SNOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...THEN AFTER IT STOPS...DO BELIEVE
LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN. COULD PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING. PRETTY
FAVORABLE WINDS FOR UPSLOPE AT KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY AS
WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL SUPPRESS ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ117-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 270504
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1004 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN THE LOWEST AND SNOWFALL RATES THE HIGHEST
AT CHEYENNE REALLY ALL DAY LONG. THIS AS LLVL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE FAVORABLE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. 12/18Z MODELS
SHOW LLVL LIFT INCREASING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THRU THE REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. SO IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING WRN FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS EFFECTIVE THRU 10Z FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN AREAS NEAREST THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE. LIFT/SNOW WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL/H5 TROUGH FRIDAY 09-12Z. AMOUNTS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF LARAMIE COUNTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO AT LARAMIE... WHEATLAND AND
KIMBALL. RAWLINS AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE NOTHING AT ALL OR JUST SOME FLURRIES.
FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE ONLY PROGD TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO DONT
EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A CONCERN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

QUICK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL USHER IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BENEATH A VERY BRIEF
LLVL THERMAL RIDGING. EVEN SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS AHEAD OF THE FORMING CUT-OFF
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON
SATURDAY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
RESULTANT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING SET-UP. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT TO REMAIN SOUTH OVER COLORADO...SHOULD SEE SOME AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A RATHER COLD PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE MILDEST DAY THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THE CWA WILL BE UNDER CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN ONE STREAM EMANATING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CAL COAST. STILL CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AS A COLD SFC HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON MONDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW CREATING A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROF
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LEE TROFFING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE COLDER
AIR AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMING TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND ADVECT OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL THEN DROP SOUTH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUITE COLD AGAIN WEDS
WITH SNOW ENDING EARLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS WY AND
THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES ACROSS LEAVING A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. MAINLY DRY THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

PROBLEM AREAS LOOK TO BE KCYS AND OUR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AIRPORTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WIND. WORST
AREA WILL BE KCYS WHICH IS CURRENTLY IFR IN SNOW. SNOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...THEN AFTER IT STOPS...DO BELIEVE
LOWERING CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN. COULD PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING. PRETTY
FAVORABLE WINDS FOR UPSLOPE AT KBFF...KAIA AND POSSIBLY KSNY AS
WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL SUPPRESS ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ117-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 270009
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
509 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN THE LOWEST AND SNOWFALL RATES THE HIGHEST
AT CHEYENNE REALLY ALL DAY LONG. THIS AS LLVL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE FAVORABLE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. 12/18Z MODELS
SHOW LLVL LIFT INCREASING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THRU THE REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. SO IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING WRN FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS EFFECTIVE THRU 10Z FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN AREAS NEAREST THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE. LIFT/SNOW WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL/H5 TROUGH FRIDAY 09-12Z. AMOUNTS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF LARAMIE COUNTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO AT LARAMIE... WHEATLAND AND
KIMBALL. RAWLINS AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE NOTHING AT ALL OR JUST SOME FLURRIES.
FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE ONLY PROGD TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO DONT
EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A CONCERN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

QUICK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL USHER IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BENEATH A VERY BRIEF
LLVL THERMAL RIDGING. EVEN SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS AHEAD OF THE FORMING CUT-OFF
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON
SATURDAY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
RESULTANT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING SET-UP. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT TO REMAIN SOUTH OVER COLORADO...SHOULD SEE SOME AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A RATHER COLD PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE MILDEST DAY THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THE CWA WILL BE UNDER CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN ONE STREAM EMANATING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CAL COAST. STILL CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AS A COLD SFC HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON MONDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW CREATING A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROF
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LEE TROFFING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE COLDER
AIR AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMING TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND ADVECT OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL THEN DROP SOUTH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUITE COLD AGAIN WEDS
WITH SNOW ENDING EARLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS WY AND
THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES ACROSS LEAVING A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. MAINLY DRY THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

ATTENTION MAINLY ON KCYS AND KLAR TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD KEEP KCYS IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT COULD IMPACT KLAR. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT DO BELIEVE KCYS COULD STAY DOWN ALL DAY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL SUPPRESS ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ117-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 270009
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
509 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN THE LOWEST AND SNOWFALL RATES THE HIGHEST
AT CHEYENNE REALLY ALL DAY LONG. THIS AS LLVL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE FAVORABLE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. 12/18Z MODELS
SHOW LLVL LIFT INCREASING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THRU THE REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. SO IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING WRN FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS EFFECTIVE THRU 10Z FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN AREAS NEAREST THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE. LIFT/SNOW WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL/H5 TROUGH FRIDAY 09-12Z. AMOUNTS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF LARAMIE COUNTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO AT LARAMIE... WHEATLAND AND
KIMBALL. RAWLINS AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE NOTHING AT ALL OR JUST SOME FLURRIES.
FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE ONLY PROGD TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO DONT
EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A CONCERN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

QUICK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL USHER IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BENEATH A VERY BRIEF
LLVL THERMAL RIDGING. EVEN SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS AHEAD OF THE FORMING CUT-OFF
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON
SATURDAY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
RESULTANT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING SET-UP. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT TO REMAIN SOUTH OVER COLORADO...SHOULD SEE SOME AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A RATHER COLD PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE MILDEST DAY THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THE CWA WILL BE UNDER CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN ONE STREAM EMANATING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CAL COAST. STILL CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AS A COLD SFC HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON MONDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW CREATING A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROF
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LEE TROFFING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE COLDER
AIR AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMING TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND ADVECT OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL THEN DROP SOUTH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUITE COLD AGAIN WEDS
WITH SNOW ENDING EARLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS WY AND
THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES ACROSS LEAVING A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. MAINLY DRY THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

ATTENTION MAINLY ON KCYS AND KLAR TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD KEEP KCYS IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT COULD IMPACT KLAR. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT DO BELIEVE KCYS COULD STAY DOWN ALL DAY
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL SUPPRESS ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ117-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 262218
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN THE LOWEST AND SNOWFALL RATES THE HIGHEST
AT CHEYENNE REALLY ALL DAY LONG. THIS AS LLVL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE FAVORABLE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. 12/18Z MODELS
SHOW LLVL LIFT INCREASING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY THRU THE REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. SO IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING WRN FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS EFFECTIVE THRU 10Z FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES TO FALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN AREAS NEAREST THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE. LIFT/SNOW WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL/H5 TROUGH FRIDAY 09-12Z. AMOUNTS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF LARAMIE COUNTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO AT LARAMIE... WHEATLAND AND
KIMBALL. RAWLINS AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE NOTHING AT ALL OR JUST SOME FLURRIES.
FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE ONLY PROGD TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO DONT
EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A CONCERN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

QUICK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL USHER IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BENEATH A VERY BRIEF
LLVL THERMAL RIDGING. EVEN SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS AHEAD OF THE FORMING CUT-OFF
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON
SATURDAY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
RESULTANT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING SET-UP. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT TO REMAIN SOUTH OVER COLORADO...SHOULD SEE SOME AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A RATHER COLD PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD WITH MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE MILDEST DAY THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY THE CWA WILL BE UNDER CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN ONE STREAM EMANATING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CAL COAST. STILL CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AS A COLD SFC HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON MONDAY AND PHASE
WITH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW CREATING A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROF
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LEE TROFFING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE COLDER
AIR AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMING TO THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND ADVECT OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL THEN DROP SOUTH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUITE COLD AGAIN WEDS
WITH SNOW ENDING EARLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS WY AND
THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES ACROSS LEAVING A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. MAINLY DRY THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY
FAR SE WY AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS...THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE IMPROVING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER SE WY THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY
AFFECTING KCYS AND KLAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL SUPPRESS ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ117-118.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 261726
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

VERY COLD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -20C
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEB.  NOT EXPECTING
MUCH SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM ARLINGTON TO CHEYENNE DURING THE AFTN.
THIS OCCURS AS SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
IMPROVES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MAIN CHANGE TO
THE FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT AND INCREASE QPF
SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT UPWARD MOTION FROM
THE SFC TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS
IS ACTUALLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SINCE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE SO COLD. WHILE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...CURRENTLY HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING
FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY
DROP OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CHEYENNE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
SO DROPPED THE PATCHY FOG.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE COLD TEMPS WITH GENERALLY WEAK
WINDS.  SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN
ON FRI WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE.  TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 5 DEGREES MOSTLY IN AREAS
THAT CLEAR DURING THE MORNING.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM FROM FRI
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  IT IS AFTER 18Z SAT THAT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD RETURN TO AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.  ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS BY SAT AFTN BUT MORESO BY SAT EVENING.  THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (0.05-0.1 INCHES)
FROM MIDDAY SAT INTO THE EVENING.  SO AT THIS POINT IT IS JUST LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH IS REALLY THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BISECTING THE NATION FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST...REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHORTWAVES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO FLATTENING OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC UPSTREAM RIDGE BY MIDWEEK. LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED
SURFACE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PLAINS AND MIDWEST. ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...
WITH FOCUS FOR HEAVIER QPF TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASED POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO 30-50 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY`S
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
COMMENCES MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE MERCURY TO LOWER-MID
30S. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY
FAR SE WY AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS...THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE IMPROVING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER SE WY THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY
AFFECTING KCYS AND KLAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 261034
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

VERY COLD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -20C
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEB.  NOT EXPECTING
MUCH SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM ARLINGTON TO CHEYENNE DURING THE AFTN.
THIS OCCURS AS SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
IMPROVES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MAIN CHANGE TO
THE FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT AND INCREASE QPF
SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT UPWARD MOTION FROM
THE SFC TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS
IS ACTUALLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SINCE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE SO COLD. WHILE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...CURRENTLY HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING
FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY
DROP OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CHEYENNE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
SO DROPPED THE PATCHY FOG.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE COLD TEMPS WITH GENERALLY WEAK
WINDS.  SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN
ON FRI WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE.  TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 5 DEGREES MOSTLY IN AREAS
THAT CLEAR DURING THE MORNING.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM FROM FRI
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  IT IS AFTER 18Z SAT THAT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD RETURN TO AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.  ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS BY SAT AFTN BUT MORESO BY SAT EVENING.  THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (0.05-0.1 INCHES)
FROM MIDDAY SAT INTO THE EVENING.  SO AT THIS POINT IT IS JUST LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH IS REALLY THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BISECTING THE NATION FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST...REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHORTWAVES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO FLATTENING OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC UPSTREAM RIDGE BY MIDWEEK. LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED
SURFACE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PLAINS AND MIDWEST. ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...
WITH FOCUS FOR HEAVIER QPF TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASED POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO 30-50 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY`S
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
COMMENCES MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE MERCURY TO LOWER-MID
30S. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KLAR TO KSNY ROUTE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-12 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 261034
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

VERY COLD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -20C
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEB.  NOT EXPECTING
MUCH SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM ARLINGTON TO CHEYENNE DURING THE AFTN.
THIS OCCURS AS SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
IMPROVES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MAIN CHANGE TO
THE FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT AND INCREASE QPF
SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT UPWARD MOTION FROM
THE SFC TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS
IS ACTUALLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SINCE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE SO COLD. WHILE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...CURRENTLY HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING
FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY
DROP OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CHEYENNE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
SO DROPPED THE PATCHY FOG.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE COLD TEMPS WITH GENERALLY WEAK
WINDS.  SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN
ON FRI WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE.  TEMPS WILL RISE AROUND 5 DEGREES MOSTLY IN AREAS
THAT CLEAR DURING THE MORNING.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIM FROM FRI
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  IT IS AFTER 18Z SAT THAT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD RETURN TO AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.  ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS BY SAT AFTN BUT MORESO BY SAT EVENING.  THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (0.05-0.1 INCHES)
FROM MIDDAY SAT INTO THE EVENING.  SO AT THIS POINT IT IS JUST LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH IS REALLY THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BISECTING THE NATION FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST...REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHORTWAVES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO FLATTENING OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC UPSTREAM RIDGE BY MIDWEEK. LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED
SURFACE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PLAINS AND MIDWEST. ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...
WITH FOCUS FOR HEAVIER QPF TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASED POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO 30-50 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY`S
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
COMMENCES MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE MERCURY TO LOWER-MID
30S. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KLAR TO KSNY ROUTE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-12 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 260420
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
920 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS ARE ALL SHOWING SNOW EASING OVER THE AREA. WENT AHEAD
AND CANCELLED SNOW ADVISORY EARLY AS FURTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW NO
LONGER EXPECTED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 06Z TAFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CEILINGS ARE COMING DOWN HERE AT
KCYS AND HRRR SHOWING A SMALL PERSISTENT IFR AREA OVER KCYS. LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AREA SEES A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 260420
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
920 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS ARE ALL SHOWING SNOW EASING OVER THE AREA. WENT AHEAD
AND CANCELLED SNOW ADVISORY EARLY AS FURTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW NO
LONGER EXPECTED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 06Z TAFS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CEILINGS ARE COMING DOWN HERE AT
KCYS AND HRRR SHOWING A SMALL PERSISTENT IFR AREA OVER KCYS. LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AREA SEES A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 252332
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
432 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SEEING ANOTHER BAND OF COOLING CLOUDS TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ROUGHLY FROM MUDDY GAP EASTWARD TO NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF THIS
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS
WELL. DO THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE
COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT WILL BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR. WILL ADJUST THE TAFS AS I SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
BAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 252332
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
432 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SEEING ANOTHER BAND OF COOLING CLOUDS TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ROUGHLY FROM MUDDY GAP EASTWARD TO NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF THIS
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS
WELL. DO THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE
COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT WILL BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR. WILL ADJUST THE TAFS AS I SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
BAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 252332
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
432 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SEEING ANOTHER BAND OF COOLING CLOUDS TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ROUGHLY FROM MUDDY GAP EASTWARD TO NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF THIS
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS
WELL. DO THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE
COOLING CLOUD TOPS THAT WILL BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR. WILL ADJUST THE TAFS AS I SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
BAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 252209
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 252209
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 252209
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CAH





000
FXUS65 KCYS 252209
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWFA TODAY LEAVING NORTHERLY
LLVL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPED INITIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. THIS POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW EXPANDED
AS IT SHIFTED WEST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE AXIS
AT 21Z SETTLING ON THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX
SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ESPECIALLY OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
CARBON COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY WAS PROGD TO BE THE GREATEST.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS
OBSERVED AT 25- 35 MPH ACROSS SE WYOMING. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ARLINGTON AS WELL AS OVR
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS LARAMIE COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BOTH WEBCAMS AND KCYS RADAR RETURNS WERE THE GREATEST.
THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL WANE SOMEWHAT WITH INSTABILITY LOSS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IF SNOWFALL RATES ALLOW...EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE
TO CANX THE ADVISORY EARLY. A COLD NIGHT AHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND SOME
LLVL CAA PLUMMET LOW TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 0F IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

ALTHOUGH BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LLVL
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AT LEAST THRU
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. HIER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NR THE CO/WY STATELINE WILL
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LT SNOW ON THURSDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS THAT WILL
RISE GENERALLY JUST INTO THE TEENS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH CARVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. LLVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF IT WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE FOG PATTERN FOR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A
CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR FRIDAY. FLATTENING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE FRONT EAST TO AROUND THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEENS AND 20S
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THUS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED AND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
OROGRAPHICS...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY.

SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER OUR NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED COLD WITH
ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING.
GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS AND PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND DRIER ECMWF VERSION WHICH
MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOIST WEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOWS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST. NOW THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND PREFER THE DRIER GFS VERSION SHOWING DRY AND
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH PERHAPS A
FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE...WHICH MESHES WELL
WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CAH




000
FXUS65 KCYS 252023
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
123 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ARLINGTON AND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH KCYS 88D IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE ARLINGTON AREA...WEBCAMS IN THAT AREA
CONFIRM POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ON AND NR THE ROADWAY. ADDITIONALLY...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW BAND EAST OF THE I80
SUMMIT OUT TO AROUND THE ROUNDTOP EXIT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...MAINLY IMPACTING LARAMIE...ALBANY AND
NOW CARBON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY LIGHT BENEATH
THESE INDIVIDUAL BANDS THUS FAR GIVEN THEIR FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THAT THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO IN AND
AROUND THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES TO PICK UP A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET SEEING UPWARDS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES. VISIBILITIES AND QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAJOR
CONCERN AS RATES MAY BE PRETTY INTENSE ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY
IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...THINK THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THINGS HANDLED WELL. BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY CLOSELY SHOULD
A BAND BECOME STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 252023
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
123 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ARLINGTON AND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH KCYS 88D IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE ARLINGTON AREA...WEBCAMS IN THAT AREA
CONFIRM POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ON AND NR THE ROADWAY. ADDITIONALLY...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW BAND EAST OF THE I80
SUMMIT OUT TO AROUND THE ROUNDTOP EXIT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...MAINLY IMPACTING LARAMIE...ALBANY AND
NOW CARBON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY LIGHT BENEATH
THESE INDIVIDUAL BANDS THUS FAR GIVEN THEIR FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THAT THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO IN AND
AROUND THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES TO PICK UP A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET SEEING UPWARDS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES. VISIBILITIES AND QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAJOR
CONCERN AS RATES MAY BE PRETTY INTENSE ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY
IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...THINK THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THINGS HANDLED WELL. BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY CLOSELY SHOULD
A BAND BECOME STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 252023
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
123 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ARLINGTON AND THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH KCYS 88D IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE ARLINGTON AREA...WEBCAMS IN THAT AREA
CONFIRM POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ON AND NR THE ROADWAY. ADDITIONALLY...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SNOW BAND EAST OF THE I80
SUMMIT OUT TO AROUND THE ROUNDTOP EXIT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...MAINLY IMPACTING LARAMIE...ALBANY AND
NOW CARBON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY LIGHT BENEATH
THESE INDIVIDUAL BANDS THUS FAR GIVEN THEIR FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THAT THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO IN AND
AROUND THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES TO PICK UP A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET SEEING UPWARDS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES. VISIBILITIES AND QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAJOR
CONCERN AS RATES MAY BE PRETTY INTENSE ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY
IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...THINK THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THINGS HANDLED WELL. BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY CLOSELY SHOULD
A BAND BECOME STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ110-
     114>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251829
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...MAINLY IMPACTING LARAMIE...ALBANY AND
NOW CARBON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY LIGHT BENEATH
THESE INDIVIDUAL BANDS THUS FAR GIVEN THEIR FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THAT THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO IN AND
AROUND THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES TO PICK UP A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET SEEING UPWARDS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES. VISIBILITIES AND QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAJOR
CONCERN AS RATES MAY BE PRETTY INTENSE ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY
IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...THINK THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THINGS HANDLED WELL. BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY CLOSELY SHOULD
A BAND BECOME STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ114>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 251829
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...MAINLY IMPACTING LARAMIE...ALBANY AND
NOW CARBON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY LIGHT BENEATH
THESE INDIVIDUAL BANDS THUS FAR GIVEN THEIR FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THAT THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO IN AND
AROUND THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES TO PICK UP A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET SEEING UPWARDS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES. VISIBILITIES AND QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MAJOR
CONCERN AS RATES MAY BE PRETTY INTENSE ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY
IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...THINK THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THINGS HANDLED WELL. BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY CLOSELY SHOULD
A BAND BECOME STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTH.
VFR AND MVFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG AND BLOWING SNOW...
THEN MVFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ114>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
505 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVAIL SO STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM MST
     THURSDAY FOR WYZ114>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251205
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
505 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVAIL SO STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM MST
     THURSDAY FOR WYZ114>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 251033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM MST
     THURSDAY FOR WYZ114>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...ZF




000
FXUS65 KCYS 251033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WYOMING. MODERATE
LLVL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN ARLINGTON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS
TO GET MUCH STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LLVL UPSLOPE AS OPPOSED TO DEEP
LAYER ASCENT. THE NAM SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z WITH LESS
INSTABILITY IN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES ARE
SHOWN TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL FOCUS THIS INSTABILITY INTO BANDS OF
SNOW. THERE IS WEAK LOW TO MIDLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT MUCH OVER WYOMING.
THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW. HAVE GENERALLY
2-3 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWY RANGE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
STILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LESS
THAN 2 INCHES) WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OUT THERE.

EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...AND
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE
PRETTY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN AREAS OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LARGELY ENDING AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SNOWPACK...AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURS BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. ALL MODELS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM THURS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE
80 SUMMIT TO CHEYENNE OVER THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR FRI...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ALOFT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A
STRATUS VS EVENT FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH SFC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS PROGGED OUT WEST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUS...UPPER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT SCENARIO WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LLVLS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TOWARD THE BEST OVERALL LIFT DOWN SOUTH IN COLORADO ON
SATURDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES...WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
BROADSCALE LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING
TO FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. STILL THINKING
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT REDUCING ISENTROPIC FORCING. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO KICK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.  A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM MST
     THURSDAY FOR WYZ114>116.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...ZF





000
FXUS65 KCYS 250555
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1055 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...OF
COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250555
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1055 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...OF
COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 250415
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...OF
COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250415
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...OF
COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 250412
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250412
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 250412
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 250412
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
912 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER DISTURBANCE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME ECHOS
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY 8000 TO 10000 FEET AGL...SO STILL LOOKING AT A WHILE
FROM SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH SNOW HITTING THE GROUND.

ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A
WESTERN DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BANDED SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 250006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
506 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW MAY
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES. SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 242300
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
400 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE FOUND AFTER 09-12Z OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. 17Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING POCKET OF SCT-
BKN050 CIGS DROPPING SOUTH KDGW-KCDR. ALTHO IT WILL LIKELY LAST
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...EXPECT DISSIPATION TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TAF SITES 09-12Z. ALONG WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TAF SITES. KRWL/KCDR WILL
SEE SNOW EARLIEST AROUND 09Z AND ALL OTHER SITES 12-18Z. FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO IFR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WILL
AWAIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION TO ADD IFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN




000
FXUS65 KCYS 242300
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
400 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SENDING THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING UP...ALONG WITH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO CRANK UP OVER OUR SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. WE
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS IN THE FEW HOURS BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...THUS HAVE TOUCHED UP THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND MID MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SETS UP OVER A SATURATED AIRMASS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
700- 500 MB AND 500-300 MB LAYERS WITH RESPECT TO QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING...THUS WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS POST ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION WANES ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...THUS EXPECT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
AREAL SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FROM THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AS SEEN BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...AND
THUS WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL SNOW COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS FROM 30 TO 65 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBANY
COUNTY ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS THOUGH WITH POWDERY SNOW
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
NICELY OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WEST OF
CHEYENNE AND OVER LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING INCLUDING CHEYENNE...THUS
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DENSE AT
TIMES DUE TO THIS COMMON WINTER AND SPRING PATTERN. WILL LIKELY
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE...IF THE COLD AIR DEPTH NEAR THE SURFACE IS
SUFFICIENTLY OVERRUN BY THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER 700 MB
FLOW...THOUGH THIS POSSIBILITY SEEMS RELATIVELY REMOTE.

BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THUS LATER FORECAST SHIFT TEAMS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND SARATOGA WHICH WILL HAVE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...THUS
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THESE LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPLIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FTR EVENTUALLY PHASES BACK INTO THE NRN
STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN...LIKELY A FOGGY START TO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS LLVL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AS
WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SCENARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY FOR
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS/LOW 20S. FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVR THE
GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF
WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT SET-UP...THE BULK OF WHICH
IS PROGD TO STAY SOUTH OVR COLORADO. MAY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES HOWEVER...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO/WYOMING STATELINE. THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM ON SUNDAY...KICKING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD
DAY AHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS RETURNING BACK TO FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
DURING ACTIVE PATTERNS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT
AGAIN FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE FOUND AFTER 09-12Z OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. 17Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING POCKET OF SCT-
BKN050 CIGS DROPPING SOUTH KDGW-KCDR. ALTHO IT WILL LIKELY LAST
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...EXPECT DISSIPATION TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TAF SITES 09-12Z. ALONG WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TAF SITES. KRWL/KCDR WILL
SEE SNOW EARLIEST AROUND 09Z AND ALL OTHER SITES 12-18Z. FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO IFR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WILL
AWAIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION TO ADD IFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO ISSUES EXPECTED BASED ON PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241756 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1051 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

AS ALWAYS...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AND INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THIS UPDATE FOCUSES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHORT TERM METEOROLOGIST LEFT THE
FORECAST IN NICE SHAPE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE MADE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS WITH NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING TEMPERATURE RISES...THOUGH
THE CAVEAT IS THE LEFTOVER SNOWFIELD ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
LARAMIE AND FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL...THUS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
SNOW ALBEDO IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH WINDS
FLOWING OVER SNOWPACK...THERE WILL BE SOME INTERESTING AND STARK
CONTRASTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...MAKING FOR ANOTHER QUITE CHALLENGING AND
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SCENARIO.  RUBIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE FOUND AFTER 09-12Z OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. 17Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING POCKET OF SCT-BKN050
CIGS DROPPING SOUTH KDGW-KCDR. ALTHO IT WILL LIKELY LAST DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...EXPECT DISSIPATION TO CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH TAF SITES 09-12Z. ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TAF SITES. KRWL/KCDR WILL SEE SNOW EARLIEST
AROUND 09Z AND ALL OTHER SITES 12-18Z. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TAFS
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE LOCATIONS DROPPING
INTO IFR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WILL AWAIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION TO ADD IFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241756 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1051 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

AS ALWAYS...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AND INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THIS UPDATE FOCUSES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHORT TERM METEOROLOGIST LEFT THE
FORECAST IN NICE SHAPE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE MADE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS WITH NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING TEMPERATURE RISES...THOUGH
THE CAVEAT IS THE LEFTOVER SNOWFIELD ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
LARAMIE AND FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL...THUS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
SNOW ALBEDO IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH WINDS
FLOWING OVER SNOWPACK...THERE WILL BE SOME INTERESTING AND STARK
CONTRASTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...MAKING FOR ANOTHER QUITE CHALLENGING AND
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SCENARIO.  RUBIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE FOUND AFTER 09-12Z OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. 17Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING POCKET OF SCT-BKN050
CIGS DROPPING SOUTH KDGW-KCDR. ALTHO IT WILL LIKELY LAST DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...EXPECT DISSIPATION TO CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH TAF SITES 09-12Z. ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TAF SITES. KRWL/KCDR WILL SEE SNOW EARLIEST
AROUND 09Z AND ALL OTHER SITES 12-18Z. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TAFS
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE LOCATIONS DROPPING
INTO IFR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WILL AWAIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION TO ADD IFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241756 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1051 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

AS ALWAYS...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AND INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THIS UPDATE FOCUSES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHORT TERM METEOROLOGIST LEFT THE
FORECAST IN NICE SHAPE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE MADE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS WITH NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING TEMPERATURE RISES...THOUGH
THE CAVEAT IS THE LEFTOVER SNOWFIELD ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
LARAMIE AND FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL...THUS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
SNOW ALBEDO IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH WINDS
FLOWING OVER SNOWPACK...THERE WILL BE SOME INTERESTING AND STARK
CONTRASTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...MAKING FOR ANOTHER QUITE CHALLENGING AND
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SCENARIO.  RUBIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE FOUND AFTER 09-12Z OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. 17Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING POCKET OF SCT-BKN050
CIGS DROPPING SOUTH KDGW-KCDR. ALTHO IT WILL LIKELY LAST DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...EXPECT DISSIPATION TO CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH TAF SITES 09-12Z. ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TAF SITES. KRWL/KCDR WILL SEE SNOW EARLIEST
AROUND 09Z AND ALL OTHER SITES 12-18Z. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TAFS
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE LOCATIONS DROPPING
INTO IFR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WILL AWAIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION TO ADD IFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1051 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

AS ALWAYS...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AND INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THIS UPDATE FOCUSES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHORT TERM METEOROLOGIST LEFT THE
FORECAST IN NICE SHAPE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE MADE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS WITH NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING TEMPERATURE RISES...THOUGH
THE CAVEAT IS THE LEFTOVER SNOWFIELD ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
LARAMIE AND FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL...THUS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
SNOW ALBEDO IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH WINDS
FLOWING OVER SNOWPACK...THERE WILL BE SOME INTERESTING AND STARK
CONTRASTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...MAKING FOR ANOTHER QUITE CHALLENGING AND
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SCENARIO.  RUBIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CIGS WITH BASES
5-10 THOUSAND FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KTS AT THE WY SITES BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER AROUND 09Z WED WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1051 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

AS ALWAYS...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AND INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THIS UPDATE FOCUSES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHORT TERM METEOROLOGIST LEFT THE
FORECAST IN NICE SHAPE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE MADE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS WITH NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING TEMPERATURE RISES...THOUGH
THE CAVEAT IS THE LEFTOVER SNOWFIELD ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
LARAMIE AND FROM CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL...THUS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
SNOW ALBEDO IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH WINDS
FLOWING OVER SNOWPACK...THERE WILL BE SOME INTERESTING AND STARK
CONTRASTS IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...MAKING FOR ANOTHER QUITE CHALLENGING AND
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SCENARIO.  RUBIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CIGS WITH BASES
5-10 THOUSAND FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KTS AT THE WY SITES BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER AROUND 09Z WED WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241742
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE FOUND AFTER 09-12Z OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. 17Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING POCKET OF SCT-
BKN050 CIGS DROPPING SOUTH KDGW-KCDR. ALTHO IT WILL LIKELY LAST
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...EXPECT DISSIPATION TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TAF SITES 09-12Z. ALONG WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TAF SITES. KRWL/KCDR WILL
SEE SNOW EARLIEST AROUND 09Z AND ALL OTHER SITES 12-18Z. FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO IFR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WILL
AWAIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION TO ADD IFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241742
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE FOUND AFTER 09-12Z OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. 17Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DIMINISHING POCKET OF SCT-
BKN050 CIGS DROPPING SOUTH KDGW-KCDR. ALTHO IT WILL LIKELY LAST
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...EXPECT DISSIPATION TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TAF SITES 09-12Z. ALONG WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TAF SITES. KRWL/KCDR WILL
SEE SNOW EARLIEST AROUND 09Z AND ALL OTHER SITES 12-18Z. FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO IFR FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WILL
AWAIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION TO ADD IFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





000
FXUS65 KCYS 241201
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CIGS WITH BASES
5-10 THOUSAND FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KTS AT THE WY SITES BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER AROUND 09Z WED WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM




000
FXUS65 KCYS 241201
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET WITH MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KLAR WHICH HAS ONCE
AGAIN DROPPED INTO SUBZERO READINGS WITH SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLIER ON IN
THE NIGHT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHER WEST...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS WELL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AT LEAST AT THE OBSERVATION SITES. 11-3.9UM
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THOUGH...SO LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SOME STRATUS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AS AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ALOFT
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION...WILL
BUMP SFC TEMPS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S OUT WEST AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT-
MODERATE SNOW TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL PIECE OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LEESIDE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PVA AND
SFC CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIATE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL FRONTOGENESIS
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH FRONTOGENESIS HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. JET FORCING IS
ALSO QUITE WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL ENERGY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO
ALL IN ALL ONLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO TRANSPORTATION AS LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NW FLOW...1
TO 3 IN THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 7 IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL PLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THIS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A SFC HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA ON THURS
NIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD ON THURS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LLVL OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING BY SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD QPF FROM 21-09Z SUN. EVEN WITH THE
BEST QG ASCENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO (THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT DEPICTING THIS)...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO AROUND 40
PERCENT FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY SUN MORNING. WITHOUT ANY SFC TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SNOWPACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR CIGS WITH BASES
5-10 THOUSAND FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KTS AT THE WY SITES BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AFTER AROUND 09Z WED WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 501 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL AND GENERALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SYSTEM
INVADES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM





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