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000
FXUS65 KCYS 220901
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CONTINUED WARM TODAY THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE
CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT THAT WAS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. SOME MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THIS
DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF WYOMING INTO CARBON AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CONVECTION AND UPDATE EARLY POPS IF IT
CONTINUES.

FOR TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CHEYENNE PWATS AT .5 INCHES AT 12Z
THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO .86 INCHES BY 00Z. PWATS IN THE
PANHANDLE INCREASE UP TO 1.3 INCHES UP BY CHADRON. ORIGINAL
THINKING WAS THAT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD CAP ANY
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE IS A PERIOD FROM 21Z THROUGH MAYBE 02-03Z WHERE
SOUNDINGS BECOME UNCAPPED...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AND
DOWN HERE NEAR CHEYENNE. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND FOR NIOBRARA COUNTY...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OUT
NEAR CHADRON THIS AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SEVERE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HERE AROUND CHEYENNE EITHER AS NAM FORECAST CAPE
APPROACHES 1500 J/KG. WILL ADD IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY.
NAM SBCAPES UP NEAR 4500 J/KG OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AND FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS REGARDING AVAILABLE
LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND ACTUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD AGAIN BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE IN
THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH DAY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER AND TSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR
THE LARAMIE RANGE...PROVIDING AN AREA OF NATURAL LLVL
CONVERGENCE. FOR SOME REASON...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION AND IS MAINLY DRY WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. SINCE THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS DOMINATED BY A MONSOON PATTERN...PREFER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND INCREASED POP BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT JUST
NORTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER TOWARDS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS
SHIFTING INTO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND BY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE IS A
10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KLAR...KCYS...AND
KCDR THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...KEPT VCTS OUT OF
EACH TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CONTINUED DRY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS
THAT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH TODAY. SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE LOW TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS INTO THE AREA WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS. SOME MONSOONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN AS WELL WEDNESDAY...SO HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA. WILL SEE
A RETURN OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS65 KCYS 220901
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CONTINUED WARM TODAY THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE
CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT THAT WAS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. SOME MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THIS
DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF WYOMING INTO CARBON AND CONVERSE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CONVECTION AND UPDATE EARLY POPS IF IT
CONTINUES.

FOR TODAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CHEYENNE PWATS AT .5 INCHES AT 12Z
THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO .86 INCHES BY 00Z. PWATS IN THE
PANHANDLE INCREASE UP TO 1.3 INCHES UP BY CHADRON. ORIGINAL
THINKING WAS THAT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD CAP ANY
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE IS A PERIOD FROM 21Z THROUGH MAYBE 02-03Z WHERE
SOUNDINGS BECOME UNCAPPED...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AND
DOWN HERE NEAR CHEYENNE. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND FOR NIOBRARA COUNTY...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OUT
NEAR CHADRON THIS AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SEVERE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HERE AROUND CHEYENNE EITHER AS NAM FORECAST CAPE
APPROACHES 1500 J/KG. WILL ADD IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY.
NAM SBCAPES UP NEAR 4500 J/KG OUT IN THE PANHANDLE AND FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS REGARDING AVAILABLE
LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND ACTUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD AGAIN BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE IN
THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EACH DAY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER AND TSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR
THE LARAMIE RANGE...PROVIDING AN AREA OF NATURAL LLVL
CONVERGENCE. FOR SOME REASON...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION AND IS MAINLY DRY WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. SINCE THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS DOMINATED BY A MONSOON PATTERN...PREFER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND INCREASED POP BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT JUST
NORTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER TOWARDS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS
SHIFTING INTO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND BY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE IS A
10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KLAR...KCYS...AND
KCDR THIS AFTERNOON. BUT SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...KEPT VCTS OUT OF
EACH TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CONTINUED DRY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS
THAT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH TODAY. SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE LOW TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS INTO THE AREA WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS. SOME MONSOONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN AS WELL WEDNESDAY...SO HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA. WILL SEE
A RETURN OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB











000
FXUS65 KCYS 220436
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1036 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WILL
EXIT THE AREA AFTER 11 PM WITH 0 POPS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
FAIR. WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH AND BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. UPDATED EVENING ZONE FORECAST SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGGED SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR. GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN









000
FXUS65 KCYS 220436
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1036 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WILL
EXIT THE AREA AFTER 11 PM WITH 0 POPS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
FAIR. WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH AND BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. UPDATED EVENING ZONE FORECAST SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGGED SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR. GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220426
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1026 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FTR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LLVLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGD SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR. GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 220426
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1026 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FTR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LLVLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGD SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR. GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 212333
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
533 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FTR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LLVLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGD SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

THROUGH 02Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE
SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE TAFS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
TO 45 KNOTS...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR PREVAILS ON TUESDAY WITH
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 212333
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
533 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FTR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LLVLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGD SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

THROUGH 02Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE
SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE TAFS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
TO 45 KNOTS...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR PREVAILS ON TUESDAY WITH
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 212149
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FTR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LLVLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGD SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. FEW TO SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 18Z. ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CYS IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO
EXPERIENCE THIS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 212149
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VISUALLY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SHALLOW...BUT A FEW HAVE RECENTLY HAVE REACH DEPTHS RETURN
ECHOES OFF OF KCYS 88D. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVR WRN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WHICH IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. EVEN SO...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS BENEATH CLOUD-BASE. CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVILY TIED TO INSOLATION...SO EXPECT QUICK DISSIPATION WITH
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FTR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE LLVLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RETREAT FROM THE
TRIPLE DIGITS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S COMMON.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS PROGD SBCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVR THE ERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID ON
YESTERDAYS RUN...NOW ADVERTISING GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION WILL DEFINITELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING....ESPECIALLY
OVR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SE WYOMING LOOKS TO SEE THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE
EVENING. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER RIDGING ON THU. AS SUCH...THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING H7 TEMPS ABOVE 17 C FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. MAY SEE ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE NE
PANHANDLE AS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
THE RULE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME SHOTS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. CONTINUED LOW-END POPS EACH AFTN AND EVE...MAYBE LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME NIGHTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK
TO BE ON SUN AND MON AS LLVL UPSLOPE RETURNS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS. CERTAINLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. FEW TO SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 18Z. ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CYS IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO
EXPERIENCE THIS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
PORTION OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR FWZ301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS
OF LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211700
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

12Z MESO AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...ALTHOUGH
SOME CU WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE
RANGES LATE THIS MORNING. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS SHOWER/WK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INTENSE HEAT AND RESULTANT INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND AT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO...DID ADD THE MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
CHADRON ALREADY 98 DEGREES AT 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

CURRENTLY...1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WYOMING IN THE
DRY SLOT THIS MORNING. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. BEING IN THE DRY SLOT...MOST OF WYOMING SHOULD STAY DRY
TODAY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
THAT COULD REACH DOWN INTO NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREA
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG NEWS TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAIN +18C 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING TODAY.
BELIEVE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS HIGHS
WITH 100+ HIGHS IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OUT WEST MIXING UP TO 500MBS
TODAY...SO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WE HAVE
OUT FOR ZONES THAT HAVE FUELS REPORTED CRITICAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SOME TONIGHT AS RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SHOWS +12 TO +14C TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL REDUCE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PREVENT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MOST DAYS. KEPT POP AROUND 20
PERCENT EACH DAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IS REMOVED SOON DUE TO THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOWN ON THE GEM AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT...A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE LAST
WEEK OF JULY AS MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. FEW TO SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 18Z. ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CYS IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO
EXPERIENCE THIS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR 301...302 AND 306 TODAY FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST AREAS
MIXING UP TO 18K FEET/500MBS...SO WINDS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE
MIXED DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. WE GET SOME RELIEF IN
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WINDS
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB








000
FXUS65 KCYS 211700
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

12Z MESO AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...ALTHOUGH
SOME CU WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE
RANGES LATE THIS MORNING. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS SHOWER/WK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INTENSE HEAT AND RESULTANT INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND AT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO...DID ADD THE MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
CHADRON ALREADY 98 DEGREES AT 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

CURRENTLY...1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WYOMING IN THE
DRY SLOT THIS MORNING. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. BEING IN THE DRY SLOT...MOST OF WYOMING SHOULD STAY DRY
TODAY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
THAT COULD REACH DOWN INTO NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREA
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG NEWS TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAIN +18C 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING TODAY.
BELIEVE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS HIGHS
WITH 100+ HIGHS IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OUT WEST MIXING UP TO 500MBS
TODAY...SO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WE HAVE
OUT FOR ZONES THAT HAVE FUELS REPORTED CRITICAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SOME TONIGHT AS RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SHOWS +12 TO +14C TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL REDUCE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PREVENT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MOST DAYS. KEPT POP AROUND 20
PERCENT EACH DAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IS REMOVED SOON DUE TO THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOWN ON THE GEM AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT...A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE LAST
WEEK OF JULY AS MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. FEW TO SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 18Z. ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CYS IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO
EXPERIENCE THIS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR 301...302 AND 306 TODAY FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST AREAS
MIXING UP TO 18K FEET/500MBS...SO WINDS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE
MIXED DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. WE GET SOME RELIEF IN
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WINDS
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211227
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

CURRENTLY...1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WYOMING IN THE
DRY SLOT THIS MORNING. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. BEING IN THE DRY SLOT...MOST OF WYOMING SHOULD STAY DRY
TODAY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
THAT COULD REACH DOWN INTO NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREA
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG NEWS TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAIN +18C 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING TODAY.
BELIEVE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS HIGHS
WITH 100+ HIGHS IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OUT WEST MIXING UP TO 500MBS
TODAY...SO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WE HAVE
OUT FOR ZONES THAT HAVE FUELS REPORTED CRITICAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SOME TONIGHT AS RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SHOWS +12 TO +14C TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL REDUCE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PREVENT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MOST DAYS. KEPT POP AROUND 20
PERCENT EACH DAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IS REMOVED SOON DUE TO THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOWN ON THE GEM AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT...A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE LAST
WEEK OF JULY AS MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR 301...302 AND 306 TODAY FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST AREAS
MIXING UP TO 18K FEET/500MBS...SO WINDS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE
MIXED DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. WE GET SOME RELIEF IN
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WINDS
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB














000
FXUS65 KCYS 211227
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
602 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

CURRENTLY...1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WYOMING IN THE
DRY SLOT THIS MORNING. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. BEING IN THE DRY SLOT...MOST OF WYOMING SHOULD STAY DRY
TODAY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
THAT COULD REACH DOWN INTO NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREA
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG NEWS TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAIN +18C 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING TODAY.
BELIEVE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS HIGHS
WITH 100+ HIGHS IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OUT WEST MIXING UP TO 500MBS
TODAY...SO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WE HAVE
OUT FOR ZONES THAT HAVE FUELS REPORTED CRITICAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SOME TONIGHT AS RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SHOWS +12 TO +14C TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL REDUCE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PREVENT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MOST DAYS. KEPT POP AROUND 20
PERCENT EACH DAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IS REMOVED SOON DUE TO THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOWN ON THE GEM AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT...A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE LAST
WEEK OF JULY AS MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR 301...302 AND 306 TODAY FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST AREAS
MIXING UP TO 18K FEET/500MBS...SO WINDS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE
MIXED DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. WE GET SOME RELIEF IN
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WINDS
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB













000
FXUS65 KCYS 210902
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
302 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

CURRENTLY...1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WYOMING IN THE
DRY SLOT THIS MORNING. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. BEING IN THE DRY SLOT...MOST OF WYOMING SHOULD STAY DRY
TODAY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
THAT COULD REACH DOWN INTO NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREA
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG NEWS TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAIN +18C 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING TODAY.
BELIEVE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS HIGHS
WITH 100+ HIGHS IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OUT WEST MIXING UP TO 500MBS
TODAY...SO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WE HAVE
OUT FOR ZONES THAT HAVE FUELS REPORTED CRITICAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SOME TONIGHT AS RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SHOWS +12 TO +14C TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL REDUCE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PREVENT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MOST DAYS. KEPT POP AROUND 20
PERCENT EACH DAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IS REMOVED SOON DUE TO THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOWN ON THE GEM AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT...A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE LAST
WEEK OF JULY AS MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TONIGHT DUE TO ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THE WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR 301...302 AND 306 TODAY FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST AREAS
MIXING UP TO 18K FEET/500MBS...SO WINDS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE
MIXED DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. WE GET SOME RELIEF IN
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WINDS
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB










000
FXUS65 KCYS 210902
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
302 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

CURRENTLY...1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WYOMING IN THE
DRY SLOT THIS MORNING. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. BEING IN THE DRY SLOT...MOST OF WYOMING SHOULD STAY DRY
TODAY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
THAT COULD REACH DOWN INTO NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREA
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG NEWS TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MAINTAIN +18C 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING TODAY.
BELIEVE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS HIGHS
WITH 100+ HIGHS IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OUT WEST MIXING UP TO 500MBS
TODAY...SO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WE HAVE
OUT FOR ZONES THAT HAVE FUELS REPORTED CRITICAL.

700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SOME TONIGHT AS RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SHOWS +12 TO +14C TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF IN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL REDUCE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PREVENT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MOST DAYS. KEPT POP AROUND 20
PERCENT EACH DAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY SOUTH. BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IS REMOVED SOON DUE TO THE MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOWN ON THE GEM AND GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT...A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE LAST
WEEK OF JULY AS MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TONIGHT DUE TO ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THE WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR 301...302 AND 306 TODAY FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST AREAS
MIXING UP TO 18K FEET/500MBS...SO WINDS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE
MIXED DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. WE GET SOME RELIEF IN
WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WINDS
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB











000
FXUS65 KCYS 210557
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. FIRE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW RH VALUES WELL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING YIELDED
ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING SO GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE COMMON. MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SARATOGA HAS KEPT WINDS A LITTLE LOWER OUT THERE...BUT IT
IS VERY DRY AND RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH SO THE RED FLAG IS GOOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH ON MON WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE LLVLS. WOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS ON MON AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT RED FLAG WILL BE ACHIEVED AGAIN...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 02Z TUE FOR FWZ 301-302-306.

NOT MANY OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS
A STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MIDLVLS ACROSS WESTERN CO. WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...AFTN AND EVE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...POSSIBLY
AS FAR EAST AS CHEYENNE. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY LATER TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OUT WEST. NOTHING TOO
CONCERNING WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 03Z. THE BEST
MOISTURE IN THE 700-300 MILLIBAR LAYER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND MON AND TUE...KEEPING THINGS ON THE
DRY SIDE. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE KEEPS H7 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS C AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES ABOVE 582 DM. STILL LOOKS VERY
HOT...ESPECIALLY EAST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON MON AS WAS THE CASE TODAY WITH 102 AT SNY
AS OF 2 PM. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUE AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVR COLORADO WILL BE FLATTENED AS UPPER LOW PLOWS
INTO THE PACNW ON WED...THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THU...AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS FRI-SUN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
BOTH WED AND THU. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG WITH THE TERRAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WED AND THU. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NR THE WY/NE
STATELINE AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER
ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
COOL FROPA ALONG WITH NW FLOW WILL ENSUE FRI-SUN. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP
SOME SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING FRIDAY MAINLY OVR LARAMIE COUNTY
AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
OR WK THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL TURN COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
SAT-SUN. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AT ALL LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TONIGHT DUE TO ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THE WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTER 11 AM. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT. AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER









000
FXUS65 KCYS 210557
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1157 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. FIRE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW RH VALUES WELL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING YIELDED
ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING SO GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE COMMON. MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SARATOGA HAS KEPT WINDS A LITTLE LOWER OUT THERE...BUT IT
IS VERY DRY AND RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH SO THE RED FLAG IS GOOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH ON MON WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE LLVLS. WOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS ON MON AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT RED FLAG WILL BE ACHIEVED AGAIN...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 02Z TUE FOR FWZ 301-302-306.

NOT MANY OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS
A STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MIDLVLS ACROSS WESTERN CO. WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...AFTN AND EVE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...POSSIBLY
AS FAR EAST AS CHEYENNE. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY LATER TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OUT WEST. NOTHING TOO
CONCERNING WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 03Z. THE BEST
MOISTURE IN THE 700-300 MILLIBAR LAYER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND MON AND TUE...KEEPING THINGS ON THE
DRY SIDE. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE KEEPS H7 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS C AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES ABOVE 582 DM. STILL LOOKS VERY
HOT...ESPECIALLY EAST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON MON AS WAS THE CASE TODAY WITH 102 AT SNY
AS OF 2 PM. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUE AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVR COLORADO WILL BE FLATTENED AS UPPER LOW PLOWS
INTO THE PACNW ON WED...THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THU...AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS FRI-SUN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
BOTH WED AND THU. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG WITH THE TERRAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WED AND THU. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NR THE WY/NE
STATELINE AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER
ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
COOL FROPA ALONG WITH NW FLOW WILL ENSUE FRI-SUN. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP
SOME SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING FRIDAY MAINLY OVR LARAMIE COUNTY
AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
OR WK THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL TURN COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
SAT-SUN. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AT ALL LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TONIGHT DUE TO ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THE WYOMING TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTER 11 AM. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT. AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 202318
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
518 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. FIRE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW RH VALUES WELL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING YIELDED
ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING SO GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE COMMON. MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SARATOGA HAS KEPT WINDS A LITTLE LOWER OUT THERE...BUT IT
IS VERY DRY AND RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH SO THE RED FLAG IS GOOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH ON MON WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE LLVLS. WOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS ON MON AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT RED FLAG WILL BE ACHIEVED AGAIN...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 02Z TUE FOR FWZ 301-302-306.

NOT MANY OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS
A STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MIDLVLS ACROSS WESTERN CO. WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...AFTN AND EVE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...POSSIBLY
AS FAR EAST AS CHEYENNE. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY LATER TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OUT WEST. NOTHING TOO
CONCERNING WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 03Z. THE BEST
MOISTURE IN THE 700-300 MILLIBAR LAYER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND MON AND TUE...KEEPING THINGS ON THE
DRY SIDE. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE KEEPS H7 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS C AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES ABOVE 582 DM. STILL LOOKS VERY
HOT...ESPECIALLY EAST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON MON AS WAS THE CASE TODAY WITH 102 AT SNY
AS OF 2 PM. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUE AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVR COLORADO WILL BE FLATTENED AS UPPER LOW PLOWS
INTO THE PACNW ON WED...THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THU...AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS FRI-SUN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
BOTH WED AND THU. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG WITH THE TERRAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WED AND THU. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NR THE WY/NE
STATELINE AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER
ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
COOL FROPA ALONG WITH NW FLOW WILL ENSUE FRI-SUN. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP
SOME SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING FRIDAY MAINLY OVR LARAMIE COUNTY
AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
OR WK THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL TURN COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
SAT-SUN. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AT ALL LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND THE
MTNS AND KRWL THIS EVENING OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTER 11 AM. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT. AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 202318
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
518 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. FIRE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW RH VALUES WELL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING YIELDED
ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING SO GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE COMMON. MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SARATOGA HAS KEPT WINDS A LITTLE LOWER OUT THERE...BUT IT
IS VERY DRY AND RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH SO THE RED FLAG IS GOOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH ON MON WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE LLVLS. WOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS ON MON AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT RED FLAG WILL BE ACHIEVED AGAIN...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 02Z TUE FOR FWZ 301-302-306.

NOT MANY OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS
A STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MIDLVLS ACROSS WESTERN CO. WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...AFTN AND EVE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...POSSIBLY
AS FAR EAST AS CHEYENNE. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY LATER TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OUT WEST. NOTHING TOO
CONCERNING WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 03Z. THE BEST
MOISTURE IN THE 700-300 MILLIBAR LAYER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND MON AND TUE...KEEPING THINGS ON THE
DRY SIDE. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE KEEPS H7 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS C AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES ABOVE 582 DM. STILL LOOKS VERY
HOT...ESPECIALLY EAST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON MON AS WAS THE CASE TODAY WITH 102 AT SNY
AS OF 2 PM. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUE AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVR COLORADO WILL BE FLATTENED AS UPPER LOW PLOWS
INTO THE PACNW ON WED...THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THU...AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS FRI-SUN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
BOTH WED AND THU. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG WITH THE TERRAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WED AND THU. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NR THE WY/NE
STATELINE AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER
ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
COOL FROPA ALONG WITH NW FLOW WILL ENSUE FRI-SUN. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP
SOME SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING FRIDAY MAINLY OVR LARAMIE COUNTY
AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
OR WK THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL TURN COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
SAT-SUN. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AT ALL LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND THE
MTNS AND KRWL THIS EVENING OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTER 11 AM. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT. AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 202035
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. FIRE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW RH VALUES WELL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING YIELDED
ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING SO GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE COMMON. MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SARATOGA HAS KEPT WINDS A LITTLE LOWER OUT THERE...BUT IT
IS VERY DRY AND RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH SO THE RED FLAG IS GOOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH ON MON WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE LLVLS. WOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS ON MON AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT RED FLAG WILL BE ACHIEVED AGAIN...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 02Z TUE FOR FWZ 301-302-306.

NOT MANY OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS
A STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MIDLVLS ACROSS WESTERN CO. WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...AFTN AND EVE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...POSSIBLY
AS FAR EAST AS CHEYENNE. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY LATER TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OUT WEST. NOTHING TOO
CONCERNING WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 03Z. THE BEST
MOISTURE IN THE 700-300 MILLIBAR LAYER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND MON AND TUE...KEEPING THINGS ON THE
DRY SIDE. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE KEEPS H7 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS C AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES ABOVE 582 DM. STILL LOOKS VERY
HOT...ESPECIALLY EAST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON MON AS WAS THE CASE TODAY WITH 102 AT SNY
AS OF 2 PM. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUE AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVR COLORADO WILL BE FLATTENED AS UPPER LOW PLOWS
INTO THE PACNW ON WED...THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THU...AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS FRI-SUN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
BOTH WED AND THU. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG WITH THE TERRAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WED AND THU. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NR THE WY/NE
STATELINE AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER
ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
COOL FROPA ALONG WITH NW FLOW WILL ENSUE FRI-SUN. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP
SOME SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING FRIDAY MAINLY OVR LARAMIE COUNTY
AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
OR WK THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL TURN COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
SAT-SUN. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AT ALL LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT TAF SITES. THERE IS A SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE KRWL WOULD
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT THE
VCSH GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...JUST SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND ANY CONVECTION THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTER 11 AM. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT. AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 202035
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. FIRE
WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW RH VALUES WELL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY. STRONG HEATING YIELDED
ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING SO GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE COMMON. MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SARATOGA HAS KEPT WINDS A LITTLE LOWER OUT THERE...BUT IT
IS VERY DRY AND RIPE FOR FIRE GROWTH SO THE RED FLAG IS GOOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH ON MON WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE LLVLS. WOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS ON MON AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT RED FLAG WILL BE ACHIEVED AGAIN...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH 02Z TUE FOR FWZ 301-302-306.

NOT MANY OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS
A STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MIDLVLS ACROSS WESTERN CO. WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...AFTN AND EVE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...POSSIBLY
AS FAR EAST AS CHEYENNE. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY LATER TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OUT WEST. NOTHING TOO
CONCERNING WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 03Z. THE BEST
MOISTURE IN THE 700-300 MILLIBAR LAYER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND MON AND TUE...KEEPING THINGS ON THE
DRY SIDE. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE KEEPS H7 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS C AND 1000-500 HPA THICKNESSES ABOVE 582 DM. STILL LOOKS VERY
HOT...ESPECIALLY EAST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON MON AS WAS THE CASE TODAY WITH 102 AT SNY
AS OF 2 PM. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUE AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVR COLORADO WILL BE FLATTENED AS UPPER LOW PLOWS
INTO THE PACNW ON WED...THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THU...AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS FRI-SUN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
BOTH WED AND THU. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG WITH THE TERRAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WED AND THU. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NR THE WY/NE
STATELINE AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER
ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A
COOL FROPA ALONG WITH NW FLOW WILL ENSUE FRI-SUN. ALTHOUGH DID KEEP
SOME SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING FRIDAY MAINLY OVR LARAMIE COUNTY
AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
OR WK THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL TURN COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
SAT-SUN. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S AT ALL LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT TAF SITES. THERE IS A SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE KRWL WOULD
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT THE
VCSH GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...JUST SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND ANY CONVECTION THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FWZ 301-302-306 THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTER 11 AM. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT. AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 201751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AM UPDATE. ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY IN STORE FOR THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH SOME MIDLVL MOISTURE
IN OUR DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO PCPN SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND WEAK SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY...SO WILL INTRODUCE LATE AM POPS. OTHERWISE THINGS
ARE LOOKING GOOD. MIGHT SEE SOME LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE SHOWERS
AROUND CYS LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE WITH WEAK WAVES EMANATING
FROM THE LOW OUT WEST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301-302-306 IS ON
TRACK. SFC OBS SHOW RH VALUES ALREADY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP SHORTLY ONCE MIXING ENSUES. BUMPED UP START TIME TO
1100 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT TAF SITES. THERE IS A SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE KRWL WOULD
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT THE
VCSH GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...JUST SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND ANY CONVECTION THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 201751
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AM UPDATE. ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY IN STORE FOR THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH SOME MIDLVL MOISTURE
IN OUR DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO PCPN SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND WEAK SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY...SO WILL INTRODUCE LATE AM POPS. OTHERWISE THINGS
ARE LOOKING GOOD. MIGHT SEE SOME LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE SHOWERS
AROUND CYS LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE WITH WEAK WAVES EMANATING
FROM THE LOW OUT WEST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301-302-306 IS ON
TRACK. SFC OBS SHOW RH VALUES ALREADY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP SHORTLY ONCE MIXING ENSUES. BUMPED UP START TIME TO
1100 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT TAF SITES. THERE IS A SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE KRWL WOULD
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT THE
VCSH GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...JUST SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND ANY CONVECTION THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 201618
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1018 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AM UPDATE. ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY IN STORE FOR THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH SOME MIDLVL MOISTURE
IN OUR DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO PCPN SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND WEAK SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY...SO WILL INTRODUCE LATE AM POPS. OTHERWISE THINGS
ARE LOOKING GOOD. MIGHT SEE SOME LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE SHOWERS
AROUND CYS LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE WITH WEAK WAVES EMANATING
FROM THE LOW OUT WEST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301-302-306 IS ON
TRACK. SFC OBS SHOW RH VALUES ALREADY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP SHORTLY ONCE MIXING ENSUES. BUMPED UP START TIME TO
1100 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LOW STRATUS NEAR KAIA WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 201618
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1018 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AM UPDATE. ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY IN STORE FOR THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH SOME MIDLVL MOISTURE
IN OUR DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO PCPN SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND WEAK SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY...SO WILL INTRODUCE LATE AM POPS. OTHERWISE THINGS
ARE LOOKING GOOD. MIGHT SEE SOME LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE SHOWERS
AROUND CYS LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE WITH WEAK WAVES EMANATING
FROM THE LOW OUT WEST. RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301-302-306 IS ON
TRACK. SFC OBS SHOW RH VALUES ALREADY AROUND 15 PERCENT AND WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP SHORTLY ONCE MIXING ENSUES. BUMPED UP START TIME TO
1100 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LOW STRATUS NEAR KAIA WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 201048
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
448 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LOW STRATUS NEAR KAIA WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 201048
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
448 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LOW STRATUS NEAR KAIA WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 200740
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
140 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 200740
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
140 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 200513
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1113 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 200513
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1113 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 192354
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WYOMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AT
THE WYOMING TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...AND
WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
SITES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 192354
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
554 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WYOMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AT
THE WYOMING TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...AND
WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
SITES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 192154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER










000
FXUS65 KCYS 192154
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER











000
FXUS65 KCYS 192113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE. NOT QUITE AS WINDY ON SUNDAY...SO DO NOT THINK WE NEED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW ATTM.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 192113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FEW NUISANCE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EARLY THIS
AFTN...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I25. DRY
TO THE WEST WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...MORE MOIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH EARLY EVE...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
TOO STRONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES. SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVER CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
GROWTH OVER THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN...AND SEE NO REASON
FOR ANY NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASIDE FROM A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT FWZ THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVE. NOT QUITE AS WINDY ON SUNDAY...SO DO NOT THINK WE NEED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW ATTM.

CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 582 DM
AND WIDESPREAD H7 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 15C SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL SEE
90S TO PERHAPS 100 OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ABOVE
95 DEG F FOR CYS BOTH DAYS. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...BUT THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO
AID IN MIDDAY CLOUDS TO INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION. FCST HIGHS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES FOR THAT REASON. THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PCPN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT AND MON. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ON MON MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TAKING THE BEST 700-300 HPA MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS LOOKING PRETTY
LIMITED YET AGAIN...BUT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
LOW END POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO STATELINE WILL
MOVE LITTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TURN MORE ZONAL. THE
RESULT FOR THE THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WED/THU WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE CWFA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SE WYOMING BOTH
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE SLIDING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION WONT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD EITHER
DAY...LIMITED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN
17-20C THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S. MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPS COOLING A TAD FOR
FRI/SAT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE AS MUCH AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. EITHER WAY...THE FRI/SAT PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
CHANCES...IF ONLY BRIEFLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN THROUGH 800 PM ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
MONDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 191747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.

SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 191747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.

SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 191646
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.

SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 191646
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.

SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







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