Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KCYS 230243
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
843 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH EASTERN ID. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY AND WESTERN
NE. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS. FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT









000
FXUS65 KCYS 222323
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
523 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 222153
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODLES TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO BIG AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML








000
FXUS65 KCYS 221529
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
929 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST
NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TOWARD
THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES ALONG THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION TODAY OR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THAT MATTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEST WITH 60S INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 221156
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220859
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
259 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO CASPER AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80
CORRIDOR NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT
KEPT POP BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG I80 FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET REACHING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. POP WILL
BE NEAR ZERO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIG CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CWFA UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE CWFA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
GIVE US SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE AND LOW 70S OUT WEST.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. BASED FORECAST OFF THE ECMWF AND HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE GFS
SOLUTION COME TRUE...WE WILL BE WINDY AND DRY.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON 700MB TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK...THE GFS IS FORECASTING 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +10C
OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING -2C TO +4C OVER
THE AREA. SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY BIG CHANCE FOR A TEMPERATURE
BUST ON FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW 700MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 TO -8C OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPLIT
FLOW WITH ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...DECIDED TO KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE CHANGING THE
WEATHER DRASTICALLY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW FOR MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... THE REST OF THE NIGHT PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...THOUGH VFR PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS
REPORTING VFR ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT











000
FXUS65 KCYS 220445
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1045 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
THE REST OF THE NIGHT PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THOUGH VFR
PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS
REPORTING VFR ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220445
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1045 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
THE REST OF THE NIGHT PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR...THOUGH VFR
PREVAILS. PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS
REPORTING VFR ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220232
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220232
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
AS OF MID EVENING...FROM CHEYENNE TO CHADRON...AND ALSO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SARATOGA TO DOUGLAS. FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO
NOTED ACROSS EASTERN CARBON COUNTY.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO EASTERN
MONTANA BY DAWN...WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WITH THE 22/00Z NAM SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS AND NAM MODEL PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 212337
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
537 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 212035
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RAWLINS AREA AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
STARTING MID AFTERNOON IN THE RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AREAS. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM.
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS TO WARRANT A PREVAILING
PERIOD OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST, SO WE
CARRIED VFR CATEGORY PREVAILING ALL PERIODS WITH A VICINITY
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING FOR MOST SITES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...RE










000
FXUS65 KCYS 211743 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RAWLINS AREA AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
STARTING MID AFTERNOON IN THE RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AREAS. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM.
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS TO WARRANT A PREVAILING
PERIOD OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST, SO WE
CARRIED VFR CATEGORY PREVAILING ALL PERIODS WITH A VICINITY
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING FOR MOST SITES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211136
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NAN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL PF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z FATS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LARK AND
KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 210816
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
216 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL QPF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT











000
FXUS65 KCYS 210816
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
216 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND IDAHO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT IS
REALLY IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING
JET ALOFT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT...SO
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS LI/S LOWER BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES BELOW 0.25...AND MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND BETWEEN 70 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG AND
EAST OF I25 INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE I80 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO LLVL INSTABILITY AND SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. BUT THERE ARE CHANGES COMING UP.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. GOING TO BE
PRETTY WARM WITH THESE STRONGER...DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACHING 80 IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE +8 TO +10C OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GFS AND HAS THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DID BUMP UP POPS FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF -4 TO -6C...A LOT OF
THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION HOLD
TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WINTER HEADLINES AS TOTAL QPF
FORECAST CLOSE TO .75 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT












000
FXUS65 KCYS 210514
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES INDICATED WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER THE SRN MTNS ON THE NOSE
OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKYS TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...JUST PROVIDING A GLANCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE AROUND TO SET
OFF AT LEAST WDLY SCTD SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD EXIST. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL THEN SWING BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE 20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS PROGS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS...LEADING TO MORE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT MOVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA IN THE MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS DIMINISHING AND DECREASING ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT AUTUMNAL WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH WEST FLOW
ALOFT...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND IN TURN BOOSTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIMITED
CLOUD COVERED SKIES.

FRIDAY...BALMY WAY TO END THE TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER OUR COUNTIES...582 DEKAMETERS. WITH PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 CELSIUS...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...EVEN SOME UPPER 70S WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BONE DRY
AIRMASS.

SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
TO OUR EAST...THUS THIS DAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ADDS EVEN MORE WARMING DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BONE DRY AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...THUS LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS
TENDED TO DO BETTER IN THE PAST FEW FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.
DEFINITELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO
LARAMIE LINE...AS BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER UTAH.

MONDAY...CONTINUING ON WITH PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOSTLY CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER COLORADO. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR COUNTIES TO BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY IS USUALLY THE WAY TO GO THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE WEEK WITH WEATHER FACTORS
REMAINING MOSTLY NON-CRITICAL. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 210514
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1114 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES INDICATED WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER THE SRN MTNS ON THE NOSE
OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKYS TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...JUST PROVIDING A GLANCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE AROUND TO SET
OFF AT LEAST WDLY SCTD SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD EXIST. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL THEN SWING BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE 20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS PROGS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS...LEADING TO MORE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT MOVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA IN THE MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS DIMINISHING AND DECREASING ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT AUTUMNAL WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH WEST FLOW
ALOFT...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND IN TURN BOOSTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIMITED
CLOUD COVERED SKIES.

FRIDAY...BALMY WAY TO END THE TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER OUR COUNTIES...582 DEKAMETERS. WITH PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 CELSIUS...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...EVEN SOME UPPER 70S WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BONE DRY
AIRMASS.

SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
TO OUR EAST...THUS THIS DAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ADDS EVEN MORE WARMING DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BONE DRY AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...THUS LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS
TENDED TO DO BETTER IN THE PAST FEW FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.
DEFINITELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO
LARAMIE LINE...AS BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER UTAH.

MONDAY...CONTINUING ON WITH PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOSTLY CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER COLORADO. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR COUNTIES TO BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY IS USUALLY THE WAY TO GO THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR KLAR
AND KRWL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER COLORADO THOUGH AND OUR
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KCYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE WEEK WITH WEATHER FACTORS
REMAINING MOSTLY NON-CRITICAL. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 210050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
650 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES INDICATED WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER THE SRN MTNS ON THE NOSE
OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKYS TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...JUST PROVIDING A GLANCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE AROUND TO SET
OFF AT LEAST WDLY SCTD SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD EXIST. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL THEN SWING BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE 20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS PROGS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS...LEADING TO MORE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT MOVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA IN THE MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS DIMINISHING AND DECREASING ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT AUTUMNAL WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH WEST FLOW
ALOFT...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND IN TURN BOOSTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIMITED
CLOUD COVERED SKIES.

FRIDAY...BALMY WAY TO END THE TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER OUR COUNTIES...582 DEKAMETERS. WITH PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 CELSIUS...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...EVEN SOME UPPER 70S WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BONE DRY
AIRMASS.

SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
TO OUR EAST...THUS THIS DAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ADDS EVEN MORE WARMING DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BONE DRY AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...THUS LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS
TENDED TO DO BETTER IN THE PAST FEW FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.
DEFINITELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO
LARAMIE LINE...AS BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER UTAH.

MONDAY...CONTINUING ON WITH PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOSTLY CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER COLORADO. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR COUNTIES TO BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY IS USUALLY THE WAY TO GO THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 643 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE WEEK WITH WEATHER FACTORS
REMAINING MOSTLY NON-CRITICAL. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RE







000
FXUS65 KCYS 210050
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
650 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES INDICATED WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER THE SRN MTNS ON THE NOSE
OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKYS TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...JUST PROVIDING A GLANCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE AROUND TO SET
OFF AT LEAST WDLY SCTD SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD EXIST. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL THEN SWING BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE 20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS PROGS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS...LEADING TO MORE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT MOVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA IN THE MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS DIMINISHING AND DECREASING ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT AUTUMNAL WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH WEST FLOW
ALOFT...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND IN TURN BOOSTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIMITED
CLOUD COVERED SKIES.

FRIDAY...BALMY WAY TO END THE TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER OUR COUNTIES...582 DEKAMETERS. WITH PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 CELSIUS...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...EVEN SOME UPPER 70S WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BONE DRY
AIRMASS.

SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
TO OUR EAST...THUS THIS DAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ADDS EVEN MORE WARMING DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BONE DRY AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...THUS LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS
TENDED TO DO BETTER IN THE PAST FEW FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.
DEFINITELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO
LARAMIE LINE...AS BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER UTAH.

MONDAY...CONTINUING ON WITH PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOSTLY CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER COLORADO. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR COUNTIES TO BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY IS USUALLY THE WAY TO GO THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 643 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE WEEK WITH WEATHER FACTORS
REMAINING MOSTLY NON-CRITICAL. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RE








000
FXUS65 KCYS 202006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES INDICATED WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER THE SRN MTNS ON THE NOSE
OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKYS TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...JUST PROVIDING A GLANCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE AROUND TO SET
OFF AT LEAST WDLY SCTD SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD EXIST. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL THEN SWING BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE 20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS PROGS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS...LEADING TO MORE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT MOVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA IN THE MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS DIMINISHING AND DECREASING ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT AUTUMNAL WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH WEST FLOW
ALOFT...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND IN TURN BOOSTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIMITED
CLOUD COVERED SKIES.

FRIDAY...BALMY WAY TO END THE TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER OUR COUNTIES...582 DEKAMETERS. WITH PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 CELSIUS...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...EVEN SOME UPPER 70S WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BONE DRY
AIRMASS.

SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
TO OUR EAST...THUS THIS DAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ADDS EVEN MORE WARMING DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BONE DRY AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...THUS LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS
TENDED TO DO BETTER IN THE PAST FEW FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.
DEFINITELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO
LARAMIE LINE...AS BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER UTAH.

MONDAY...CONTINUING ON WITH PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOSTLY CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER COLORADO. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR COUNTIES TO BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY IS USUALLY THE WAY TO GO THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE WEEK WITH WEATHER FACTORS
REMAINING MOSTLY NON-CRITICAL. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 202006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BUT SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES INDICATED WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER THE SRN MTNS ON THE NOSE
OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKYS TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...JUST PROVIDING A GLANCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENUF MOISTURE AROUND TO SET
OFF AT LEAST WDLY SCTD SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD EXIST. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL THEN SWING BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN THE 20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS PROGS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS...LEADING TO MORE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE ALOFT MOVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA IN THE MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS DIMINISHING AND DECREASING ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...DECENT AUTUMNAL WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH WEST FLOW
ALOFT...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND IN TURN BOOSTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIMITED
CLOUD COVERED SKIES.

FRIDAY...BALMY WAY TO END THE TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER OUR COUNTIES...582 DEKAMETERS. WITH PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 CELSIUS...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S...EVEN SOME UPPER 70S WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BONE DRY
AIRMASS.

SATURDAY...OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
TO OUR EAST...THUS THIS DAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ADDS EVEN MORE WARMING DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BONE DRY AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...20/12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...THUS LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS
TENDED TO DO BETTER IN THE PAST FEW FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.
DEFINITELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO
LARAMIE LINE...AS BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER UTAH.

MONDAY...CONTINUING ON WITH PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOSTLY CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER COLORADO. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR COUNTIES TO BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY IS USUALLY THE WAY TO GO THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE WEEK WITH WEATHER FACTORS
REMAINING MOSTLY NON-CRITICAL. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 201711
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1111 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EXTREME EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM COLORADO. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP HOWEVER...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A QUICK RAIN SHOWER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...JUST ANOTHER PLEASANT WARM DAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...WILL PUSH INLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO IDAHO AND WYOMING
BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOTHING REALLY
IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS THE
JET STREAM QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
RIDGE...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20
TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
LOW TO MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND LI/S BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES
BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND BETWEEN A
0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...DRY
CONDITIONS...SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







000
FXUS65 KCYS 201711
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1111 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EXTREME EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM COLORADO. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP HOWEVER...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A QUICK RAIN SHOWER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...JUST ANOTHER PLEASANT WARM DAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...WILL PUSH INLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO IDAHO AND WYOMING
BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOTHING REALLY
IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS THE
JET STREAM QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
RIDGE...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20
TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
LOW TO MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND LI/S BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES
BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND BETWEEN A
0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...DRY
CONDITIONS...SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDING OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT






000
FXUS65 KCYS 201107
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
507 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EXTREME EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM COLORADO. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP HOWEVER...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A QUICK RAIN SHOWER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...JUST ANOTHER PLEASANT WARM DAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...WILL PUSH INLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO IDAHO AND WYOMING
BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOTHING REALLY
IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS THE
JET STREAM QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
RIDGE...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20
TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
LOW TO MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND LI/S BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES
BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND BETWEEN A
0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...DRY
CONDITIONS...SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NO WEATHER
RELATED PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT








000
FXUS65 KCYS 201107
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
507 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EXTREME EASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM COLORADO. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP HOWEVER...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A QUICK RAIN SHOWER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...JUST ANOTHER PLEASANT WARM DAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...WILL PUSH INLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO IDAHO AND WYOMING
BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOTHING REALLY
IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AS THE
JET STREAM QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
RIDGE...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20
TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
LOW TO MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND LI/S BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF VALUES
BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...AND BETWEEN A
0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...DRY
CONDITIONS...SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NO WEATHER
RELATED PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT. BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WYOMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities