000
FXUS65 KCYS 231206
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
606 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITHIN A RELATIVELY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING UNDER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW A DRY AND DEEP MIXED LAYER ACROSS
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY...WITH A MUCH MORE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING AS
RELATIVELY STRONG 700 MB WAA PATTERN SETS UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BE SLOW TO MIX THIS MORNING UNDER THIS INVERSION AND WITH THE
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT WILL BURN OFF EVENTUALLY WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY AND STRONG LLVL MIXING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
MEANS OF CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN SPITE
OF STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOISTURE AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS RATHER
MARGINAL...SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ROOTED
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE WEAK WAVE AND MOISTURE MOVE OVERHEAD
BUT LIKELY WILL NOT SUSTAIN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MIXING HEIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING
PLAINS LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 MB AND 750 MB TODAY WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KTS. THEREFORE WILL
REFRAIN FROM ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS IN THE DEEPER MIXED LAYER FURTHER WEST LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
40 TO 45 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL WINDY DAY IN
STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING A
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A
COLD FRONT WITH PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BETWEEN 07 AND 16Z AND WILL STALL ALONG THE
WY/NE BORDER. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL STEADILY CLEAR
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH WARM
700 MB TEMPS ALOFT SO THE CAP WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG ACROSS
NEBRASKA...EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP REDUCE THE CAP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL AVERAGE FROM 40 TO 45 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SO SOME STORMS THAT DO FORM OFF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE MIDLEVELS TO DEVELOP STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DEPICTING A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BACK THE WINDS ALOFT TO SOUTHERLY FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
MAINTAIN A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE...MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. DAYTIME DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S WITH
SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CLOSED LOW EMERGES OVER ARIZONA WITH
A GREATER FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL
VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z-16Z ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING CARBON COUNTY INCLUDING KRWL. CONDITIONS WILL
STEADILY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. A RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT AFTER 05Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS...AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
MORNING WITH THE FOG STEADILY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS ZONE 301...303 AND
304 THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY BUT WILL DROP TO THE MID TEENS
TO UPPER 20S OUT WEST. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS EASING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
000
FXUS65 KCYS 230905
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
WEBCAMS SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR VISIBILITIES REMAINING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. ONCE
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION
AFTER SUNRISE ACTS TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL SEE THE
FOG LIFT AND VISIBILITIES STEADILY IMPROVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THAT AREA
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAVE SINCE ENDED. A TIGHT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD
SPREAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY CREATE ENOUGH
MIXING TO LIMIT THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN FOG SOME. THE
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MOVE TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z. THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE STARTING AFTER 09Z. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CLOUD DEPTH DEEPENS. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
ON THURSDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA
LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE MADE MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS IN A RECENT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALBANY AND
CARBON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF. SHOWERS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND COULD REACH THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE PUSHING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING AS COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
GIVEN 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION IN
THE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING.
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD FIRM ALL DAY AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE. THE
STRATUS WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST THIS EVENING...BANKING UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RATCHET UPWARD TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TONIGHT
SUCH AS AROUND DOUGLAS.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ANYWHERE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CUT BACK ON CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDICAP...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT. CERTAINLY A CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
MEETING SOUTHEAST WINDS...SO SHOULD CAP WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH
CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
STATUS SHOULD STAY LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOR PLACES SUCH AS CHEYENNE AND
DOUGLAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRY AIR MAKE
IT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRY LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES
CONDUCIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
WITH TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THE
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD. STORMS VERY WELL MAY
FIRE ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN SWLY FLOW
WITH SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT
FAR. PATTERN THEN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL
HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. PERIODIC UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BUT HARD TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE BEST FOR THIS. RIGHT NOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOKING SOMEWHAT BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...EXCEPT
AT RAWLINS...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER
15Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER
15Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE FOG WILL BURN OFF THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IT WILL BE
DRY AND WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WYOMING ALONG
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 230421
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1021 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THAT AREA
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAVE SINCE ENDED. A TIGHT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD
SPREAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY CREATE ENOUGH
MIXING TO LIMIT THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN FOG SOME. THE
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MOVE TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z. THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE STARTING AFTER 09Z. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CLOUD DEPTH DEEPENS. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
ON THURSDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA
LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE MADE MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS IN A RECRNY UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALBANY AND
CARBON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF. SHOWERS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND COULD REACH THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE PUSHING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING AS COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
GIVEN 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION IN
THE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING.
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD FIRM ALL DAY AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE. THE
STRATUS WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST THIS EVENING...BANKING UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RATCHET UPWARD TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TONIGHT
SUCH AS AROUND DOUGLAS.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ANYWHERE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CUT BACK ON CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDICAP...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT. CERTAINLY A CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
MEETING SOUTHEAST WINDS...SO SHOULD CAP WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH
CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
STATUS SHOULD STAY LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOR PLACES SUCH AS CHEYENNE AND
DOUGLAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRY AIR MAKE
IT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRY LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES
CONDUCIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
WITH TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THE
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD. STORMS VERY WELL MAY
FIRE ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN SWLY FLOW
WITH SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT
FAR. PATTERN THEN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL
HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. PERIODIC UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BUT HARD TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE BEST FOR THIS. RIGHT NOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOKING SOMEWHAT BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...EXCEPT
AT RAWLINS...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER
15Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER
15Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE FOG WILL BURN OFF THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IT WILL BE
DRY AND WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WYOMING ALONG
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 230210
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THAT AREA
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAVE SINCE ENDED. A TIGHT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD
SPREAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY CREATE ENOUGH
MIXING TO LIMIT THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN FOG SOME. THE
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MOVE TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z. THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE STARTING AFTER 09Z. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CLOUD DEPTH DEEPENS. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
ON THURSDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA
LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE MADE MINOR FIRST PERIOD
ADJUSTMENTS IN A RECRNY UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALBANY AND
CARBON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF. SHOWERS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND COULD REACH THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE PUSHING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING AS COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
GIVEN 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION IN
THE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING.
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD FIRM ALL DAY AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE. THE
STRATUS WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST THIS EVENING...BANKING UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RATCHET UPWARD TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TONIGHT
SUCH AS AROUND DOUGLAS.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ANYWHERE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CUT BACK ON CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDICAP...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT. CERTAINLY A CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
MEETING SOUTHEAST WINDS...SO SHOULD CAP WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH
CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
STATUS SHOULD STAY LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOR PLACES SUCH AS CHEYENNE AND
DOUGLAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRY AIR MAKE
IT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRY LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES
CONDUCIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
WITH TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THE
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD. STORMS VERY WELL MAY
FIRE ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN SWLY FLOW
WITH SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT
FAR. PATTERN THEN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL
HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. PERIODIC UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BUT HARD TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE BEST FOR THIS. RIGHT NOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOKING SOMEWHAT BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THROUGH 06Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF
A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE. AFTER 03Z...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING EAST TO WEST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT AT
RAWLINS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE FOG WILL BURN OFF THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IT WILL BE
DRY AND WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WYOMING ALONG
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 230012
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
612 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALBANY AND
CARBON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF. SHOWERS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND COULD REACH THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE PUSHING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING AS COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
GIVEN 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION IN
THE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING.
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD FIRM ALL DAY AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE. THE
STRATUS WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST THIS EVENING...BANKING UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RATCHET UPWARD TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TONIGHT
SUCH AS AROUND DOUGLAS.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ANYWHERE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CUT BACK ON CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDICAP...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT. CERTAINLY A CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
MEETING SOUTHEAST WINDS...SO SHOULD CAP WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH
CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
STATUS SHOULD STAY LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOR PLACES SUCH AS CHEYENNE AND
DOUGLAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRY AIR MAKE
IT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRY LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES
CONDUCIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
WITH TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THE
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD. STORMS VERY WELL MAY
FIRE ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN SWLY FLOW
WITH SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT
FAR. PATTERN THEN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL
HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. PERIODIC UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BUT HARD TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE BEST FOR THIS. RIGHT NOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOKING SOMEWHAT BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THROUGH 06Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF
A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE. AFTER 03Z...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING EAST TO WEST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT AT
RAWLINS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE FOG WILL BURN OFF THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IT WILL BE
DRY AND WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WYOMING ALONG
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 222133
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALBANY AND
CARBON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF. SHOWERS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND COULD REACH THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE PUSHING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING AS COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
GIVEN 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION IN
THE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING.
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD FIRM ALL DAY AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE. THE
STRATUS WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST THIS EVENING...BANKING UP ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RATCHET UPWARD TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TONIGHT
SUCH AS AROUND DOUGLAS.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ANYWHERE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CUT BACK ON CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDICAP...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT. CERTAINLY A CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
MEETING SOUTHEAST WINDS...SO SHOULD CAP WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH
CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
STATUS SHOULD STAY LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOR PLACES SUCH AS CHEYENNE AND
DOUGLAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRY AIR MAKE
IT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRY LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES
CONDUCIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
WITH TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THE
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD. STORMS VERY WELL MAY
FIRE ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN SWLY FLOW
WITH SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT
FAR. PATTERN THEN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL
HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. PERIODIC UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BUT HARD TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE BEST FOR THIS. RIGHT NOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOKING SOMEWHAT BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP FM KCDR TO KAIA LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY AROUND THE
SE WY MTNS. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD CAUSE LOW CLOUDS
WITH IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06-09Z OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE FOG WILL BURN OFF THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IT WILL BE
DRY AND WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WYOMING ALONG
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 221726
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1125 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRATUS DECK ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE IS MAKING FOR
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. BY LATER THIS MORNING THE STRATUS DECK
SHOULD MIX OUT SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN STRATUS DECK REMAINING OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING WHICH BY THIS AFTERNOON
MAY FORM INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES IN NE SFC WINDS. THE PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO KEEP THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS GOING OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 40S DEWPOINTS REACH THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
THIS AFTN...SO THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT THE GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FCST. LLVL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS
AROUND 4-5 KFT DEEP ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ALSO.
MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING
SE SFC WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NEVADA INTO WESTERN
MONTANA FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SFC
LOW WILL FOLLOW THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FROM WESTERN WY INTO
CENTRAL MT. S AND SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30-35 KTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PERSISTENT OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. DESPITE THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS...THERE IS A STRONG CAPPING LAYER ON THE SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 700-600MB...SO TSTM POTENTIAL (EXCEPT MAYBE RIGHT ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE) IS QUITE LIMITED. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PANHANDLE COULD KEEP
THE WINDS GOING THERE. THE GFS SHOWS 800MB SOUTH WINDS OF 45-50 KTS
AND WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS FOR WIND ADVISORY
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE
FEATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WITH
SOME VARIATION OF TIMING BETWEEN THE THE MODELS. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND WILL DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE WY/NE BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC DEW POINTS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S OUT WEST TO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...RANGING FROM
ROUGHLY 9C TO 12C BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING WITH MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE SFC FORCING IS STRONGEST. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT WYOMING PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THO...SO EVEN WITH VARIABILITY
OF SHORTWAVE TIMING SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EJECTION OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FEATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 500 MI
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN...MEANING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAIN FOR THE
VARIATION IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN ON A SOLUTION THAT DIGS STRONGER ENERGY ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME BIGGER DIFFERENCES WITH SFC LOW
PLACEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG DIFFERENCE
AS TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE LINGERING
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH LESS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP FM KCDR TO KAIA LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY AROUND THE
SE WY MTNS. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD CAUSE LOW CLOUDS
WITH IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06-09Z OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS EAST
AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TRANSPORT GOOD MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
000
FXUS65 KCYS 221418 AAA
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
818 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRATUS DECK ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE IS MAKING FOR
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. BY LATER THIS MORNING THE STRATUS DECK
SHOULD MIX OUT SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN STRATUS DECK REMAINING OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING WHICH BY THIS AFTERNOON
MAY FORM INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES IN NE SFC WINDS. THE PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO KEEP THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS GOING OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 40S DEWPOINTS REACH THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
THIS AFTN...SO THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT THE GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FCST. LLVL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS
AROUND 4-5 KFT DEEP ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ALSO.
MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING
SE SFC WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NEVADA INTO WESTERN
MONTANA FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SFC
LOW WILL FOLLOW THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FROM WESTERN WY INTO
CENTRAL MT. S AND SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30-35 KTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PERSISTENT OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. DESPITE THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS...THERE IS A STRONG CAPPING LAYER ON THE SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 700-600MB...SO TSTM POTENTIAL (EXCEPT MAYBE RIGHT ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE) IS QUITE LIMITED. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PANHANDLE COULD KEEP
THE WINDS GOING THERE. THE GFS SHOWS 800MB SOUTH WINDS OF 45-50 KTS
AND WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS FOR WIND ADVISORY
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE
FEATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WITH
SOME VARIATION OF TIMING BETWEEN THE THE MODELS. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND WILL DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE WY/NE BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC DEW POINTS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S OUT WEST TO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...RANGING FROM
ROUGHLY 9C TO 12C BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING WITH MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE SFC FORCING IS STRONGEST. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT WYOMING PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THO...SO EVEN WITH VARIABILITY
OF SHORTWAVE TIMING SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EJECTION OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FEATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 500 MI
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN...MEANING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAIN FOR THE
VARIATION IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN ON A SOLUTION THAT DIGS STRONGER ENERGY ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME BIGGER DIFFERENCES WITH SFC LOW
PLACEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG DIFFERENCE
AS TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE LINGERING
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH LESS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
MODELS KEEP IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WITH THE MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 06-09Z OVER THE PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THIS PREVIOUS NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLAR BY THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS EAST
AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TRANSPORT GOOD MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
000
FXUS65 KCYS 221141
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
541 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES IN NE SFC WINDS. THE PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO KEEP THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS GOING OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 40S DEWPOINTS REACH THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE
THIS AFTN...SO THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT THE GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FCST. LLVL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOW
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS
AROUND 4-5 KFT DEEP ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ALSO.
MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING
SE SFC WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NEVADA INTO WESTERN
MONTANA FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SFC
LOW WILL FOLLOW THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FROM WESTERN WY INTO
CENTRAL MT. S AND SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30-35 KTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PERSISTENT OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. DESPITE THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS...THERE IS A STRONG CAPPING LAYER ON THE SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 700-600MB...SO TSTM POTENTIAL (EXCEPT MAYBE RIGHT ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE) IS QUITE LIMITED. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PANHANDLE COULD KEEP
THE WINDS GOING THERE. THE GFS SHOWS 800MB SOUTH WINDS OF 45-50 KTS
AND WOULD BE MOST CONCERNED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS FOR WIND ADVISORY
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE
FEATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WITH
SOME VARIATION OF TIMING BETWEEN THE THE MODELS. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND WILL DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE WY/NE BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC DEW POINTS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S OUT WEST TO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...RANGING FROM
ROUGHLY 9C TO 12C BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FORCING WITH MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE SFC FORCING IS STRONGEST. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND ADJACENT WYOMING PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THO...SO EVEN WITH VARIABILITY
OF SHORTWAVE TIMING SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EJECTION OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FEATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 500 MI
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN...MEANING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAIN FOR THE
VARIATION IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN ON A SOLUTION THAT DIGS STRONGER ENERGY ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME BIGGER DIFFERENCES WITH SFC LOW
PLACEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG DIFFERENCE
AS TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE LINGERING
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST WITH LESS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
MODELS KEEP IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WITH THE MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 06-09Z OVER THE PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THIS PREVIOUS NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLAR BY THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS EAST
AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TRANSPORT GOOD MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
000
FXUS65 KCYS 220640
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1240 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. AT 2 PM MDT WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 51 MPH AT SCOTTSBLUFF
AND 44 MPH AT ALLIANCE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT WESTWARD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTABILITY
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT SO MAINLY LOOKING AT SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS PECULATING INTO THE NIGH-TIME WHILE SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING AT LUSK SHOWING 50 KT
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE IN
PART TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. MOST LIKELY A FEW STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...STORMS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ALONG WITH THE INVERSION EXPECTING A LOT OF STRATUS THURSDAY.
STRATUS SHOULD PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHIFT IN LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WARMED
THE LOW A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A BIT
OF CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE PANHANDLE BUT IF SFC BOUNDARY MOVES
FAR ENOUGH EAST THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE UNTIL BETTER CERTAINTY. SW FLOW ALOFT
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SO SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. ECMWF DEPICTING IT
PRETTY MUCH DAILY WHILE GFS DRIER. WILL KEEP POPS WHERE IT LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE SUCH AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GENERALLY A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS...LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE PRODUCING LOW HUMIDITY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 220459
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. AT 2 PM MDT WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 51 MPH AT SCOTTSBLUFF
AND 44 MPH AT ALLIANCE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT WESTWARD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTABILITY
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT SO MAINLY LOOKING AT SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS PECULATING INTO THE NIGH-TIME WHILE SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING AT LUSK SHOWING 50 KT
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE IN
PART TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. MOST LIKELY A FEW STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...STORMS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ALONG WITH THE INVERSION EXPECTING A LOT OF STRATUS THURSDAY.
STRATUS SHOULD PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHIFT IN LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WARMED
THE LOW A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A BIT
OF CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE PANHANDLE BUT IF SFC BOUNDARY MOVES
FAR ENOUGH EAST THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE UNTIL BETTER CERTAINTY. SW FLOW ALOFT
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SO SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. ECMWF DEPICTING IT
PRETTY MUCH DAILY WHILE GFS DRIER. WILL KEEP POPS WHERE IT LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE SUCH AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GENERALLY A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LATEST SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS
MAKING IT INTO KCDR AND KAIA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA REPORTING CEILINGS DOWN AROUND 1500 FEET...SO THEIR
FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED CEILINGS AT KCDR
AND KAIA TONIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE PRODUCING LOW HUMIDITY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 212348
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
548 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. AT 2 PM MDT WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 51 MPH AT SCOTTSBLUFF
AND 44 MPH AT ALLIANCE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT WESTWARD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTABILITY
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT SO MAINLY LOOKING AT SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS PECULATING INTO THE NIGH-TIME WHILE SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING AT LUSK SHOWING 50 KT
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE IN
PART TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. MOST LIKELY A FEW STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...STORMS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ALONG WITH THE INVERSION EXPECTING A LOT OF STRATUS THURSDAY.
STRATUS SHOULD PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHIFT IN LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WARMED
THE LOW A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A BIT
OF CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE PANHANDLE BUT IF SFC BOUNDARY MOVES
FAR ENOUGH EAST THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE UNTIL BETTER CERTAINTY. SW FLOW ALOFT
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SO SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. ECMWF DEPICTING IT
PRETTY MUCH DAILY WHILE GFS DRIER. WILL KEEP POPS WHERE IT LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE SUCH AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GENERALLY A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LATEST SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS
MAKING IT INTO KCDR AND KAIA TONIGHT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA REPORTING CEILINGS DOWN AROUND 1500 FEET...SO THEIR
FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED CEILINGS AT KCDR
AND KAIA TONIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE PRODUCING LOW HUMIDITY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 212126
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
326 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. AT 2 PM MDT WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 51 MPH AT SCOTTSBLUFF
AND 44 MPH AT ALLIANCE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT WESTWARD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTABILITY
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT SO MAINLY LOOKING AT SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS PECULATING INTO THE NIGH-TIME WHILE SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING AT LUSK SHOWING 50 KT
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE IN
PART TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. MOST LIKELY A FEW STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE...STORMS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ALONG WITH THE INVERSION EXPECTING A LOT OF STRATUS THURSDAY.
STRATUS SHOULD PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHIFT IN LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. ALSO WARMED
THE LOW A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A BIT
OF CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE PANHANDLE BUT IF SFC BOUNDARY MOVES
FAR ENOUGH EAST THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE UNTIL BETTER CERTAINTY. SW FLOW ALOFT
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SO SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. ECMWF DEPICTING IT
PRETTY MUCH DAILY WHILE GFS DRIER. WILL KEEP POPS WHERE IT LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE SUCH AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...GENERALLY A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THERE. VFR OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDS EXCEPT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE PRODUCING LOW HUMIDITY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 211725
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1125 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POP FORECAST TODAY...OTHERWISE EVERYTHING
LOOKS ON TRACK. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR CHADRON
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE ONLY OTHER EXCEPTION IS FOR A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST CWA NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL BE
LIGHT AND MINIMAL AT MOST.
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SIDNEY
AND ALLIANCE BOTH REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AS OF 900 AM.
THESE TYPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS
ARE BY MID AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR A FEW
ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE ADVISORY IS THROUGH 3
PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH 21Z. LATEST IR LOOP WAS
SHOWING THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
MIXING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING. PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50KTS 1 TO 2KM OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
THE WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...RADAR IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH LIGHT RAIN ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST VWP FROM UDX IS SHOWING 50KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC WITH THE VWP AT CYS SHOWING AROUND 40KTS. THESE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE LESS.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE TOPS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY MIX OUT OR NOT. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS WHETHER THE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO STAY IN THE NORTH...WE MAY END UP ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WE MAY END UP PULLING
THE TRIGGER FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NORTH PLATTE AND RAPID CITY TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CLOUD TRENDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAY
SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WE DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS A BIT SINCE THERE CURRENT
READINGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH FORWARD SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15KTS. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND 500J/KG I WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
TRANSPORT LLVL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON WED
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND LLVL RH PROGS SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT AND THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT ON THURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON THURS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE LLVL CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUES TO -2C)
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THURS AFTN...THERE IS A
CAPPING LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED. SE WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY ON THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM WYOMING INTO MONTANA ON THURS NIGHT.
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF...SIMILAR TO ONE NIGHT AGO...DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE DRIER GFS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BEST TSTM CHANCES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE ECMWF PUSHES 45-50F
DEWPOINTS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEND TO BELIEVE THAT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT FAR WEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...THAT THE GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH AND IS PUSHING THE
MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT (AROUND 35-40 KTS) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THERE. VFR OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDS EXCEPT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS FIRE ACTIVITY. THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINED WITH GREEN-UP CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK
POTENTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...REC
000
FXUS65 KCYS 211550
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
950 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POP FORECAST TODAY...OTHERWISE EVERYTHING
LOOKS ON TRACK. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR CHADRON
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE ONLY OTHER EXCEPTION IS FOR A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST CWA NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL BE
LIGHT AND MINIMAL AT MOST.
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SIDNEY
AND ALLIANCE BOTH REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AS OF 900 AM.
THESE TYPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS
ARE BY MID AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR A FEW
ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE ADVISORY IS THROUGH 3
PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH 21Z. LATEST IR LOOP WAS
SHOWING THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
MIXING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING. PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50KTS 1 TO 2KM OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
THE WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...RADAR IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH LIGHT RAIN ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST VWP FROM UDX IS SHOWING 50KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC WITH THE VWP AT CYS SHOWING AROUND 40KTS. THESE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE LESS.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE TOPS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY MIX OUT OR NOT. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS WHETHER THE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO STAY IN THE NORTH...WE MAY END UP ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WE MAY END UP PULLING
THE TRIGGER FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NORTH PLATTE AND RAPID CITY TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CLOUD TRENDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAY
SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WE DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS A BIT SINCE THERE CURRENT
READINGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH FORWARD SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15KTS. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND 500J/KG I WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
TRANSPORT LLVL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON WED
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND LLVL RH PROGS SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT AND THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT ON THURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON THURS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE LLVL CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUES TO -2C)
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THURS AFTN...THERE IS A
CAPPING LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED. SE WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY ON THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM WYOMING INTO MONTANA ON THURS NIGHT.
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF...SIMILAR TO ONE NIGHT AGO...DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE DRIER GFS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BEST TSTM CHANCES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE ECMWF PUSHES 45-50F
DEWPOINTS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEND TO BELIEVE THAT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT FAR WEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...THAT THE GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH AND IS PUSHING THE
MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT (AROUND 35-40 KTS) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES WERE SHOWING
WIND SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50KTS AT THE MERRIMAN NE AND RAPID CITY
PROFILE SITES. LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT IN THAT REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40KTS POSSIBLE. THE CDR
AND BFF TAF SITES MAY NOT BE QUITE THAT HIGH SINCE THEY ARE IN A
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TAF SITES AIA AND SNY MAY SEE HIGHER GUSTS
DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE PINE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS REGARDLESS OF THE MIXING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAIN THEME THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHICH MAY CAUSE THEM TO DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS FIRE ACTIVITY. THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINED WITH GREEN-UP CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK
POTENTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC
000
FXUS65 KCYS 211157
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
557 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH 21Z. LATEST IR LOOP WAS
SHOWING THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
MIXING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING. PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50KTS 1 TO 2KM OFF THE SURFACE.
COX
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
THE WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...RADAR IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH LIGHT RAIN ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST VWP FROM UDX IS SHOWING 50KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC WITH THE VWP AT CYS SHOWING AROUND 40KTS. THESE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE LESS.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE TOPS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY MIX OUT OR NOT. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS WHETHER THE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO STAY IN THE NORTH...WE MAY END UP ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WE MAY END UP PULLING
THE TRIGGER FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NORTH PLATTE AND RAPID CITY TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CLOUD TRENDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAY
SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WE DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS A BIT SINCE THERE CURRENT
READINGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH FORWARD SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15KTS. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND 500J/KG I WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
TRANSPORT LLVL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON WED
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND LLVL RH PROGS SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT AND THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT ON THURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON THURS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE LLVL CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUES TO -2C)
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THURS AFTN...THERE IS A
CAPPING LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED. SE WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY ON THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM WYOMING INTO MONTANA ON THURS NIGHT.
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF...SIMILAR TO ONE NIGHT AGO...DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE DRIER GFS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BEST TSTM CHANCES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE ECMWF PUSHES 45-50F
DEWPOINTS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEND TO BELIEVE THAT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT FAR WEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...THAT THE GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH AND IS PUSHING THE
MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT (AROUND 35-40 KTS) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES WERE SHOWING
WIND SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50KTS AT THE MERRIMAN NE AND RAPID CITY
PROFILE SITES. LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT IN THAT REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40KTS POSSIBLE. THE CDR
AND BFF TAF SITES MAY NOT BE QUITE THAT HIGH SINCE THEY ARE IN A
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TAF SITES AIA AND SNY MAY SEE HIGHER GUSTS
DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE PINE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS REGARDLESS OF THE MIXING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAIN THEME THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHICH MAY CAUSE THEM TO DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS FIRE ACTIVITY. THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINED WITH GREEN-UP CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK
POTENTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC
000
FXUS65 KCYS 211139
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
539 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
THE WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...RADAR IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH LIGHT RAIN ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST VWP FROM UDX IS SHOWING 50KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC WITH THE VWP AT CYS SHOWING AROUND 40KTS. THESE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE LESS.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE TOPS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY MIX OUT OR NOT. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS WHETHER THE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO STAY IN THE NORTH...WE MAY END UP ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WE MAY END UP PULLING
THE TRIGGER FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NORTH PLATTE AND RAPID CITY TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CLOUD TRENDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAY
SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WE DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS A BIT SINCE THERE CURRENT
READINGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH FORWARD SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15KTS. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND 500J/KG I WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
TRANSPORT LLVL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON WED
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND LLVL RH PROGS SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT AND THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT ON THURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON THURS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE LLVL CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUES TO -2C)
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THURS AFTN...THERE IS A
CAPPING LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED. SE WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY ON THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM WYOMING INTO MONTANA ON THURS NIGHT.
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF...SIMILAR TO ONE NIGHT AGO...DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE DRIER GFS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BEST TSTM CHANCES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE ECMWF PUSHES 45-50F
DEWPOINTS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEND TO BELIEVE THAT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT FAR WEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...THAT THE GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH AND IS PUSHING THE
MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT (AROUND 35-40 KTS) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES WERE SHOWING
WIND SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50KTS AT THE MERRIMAN NE AND RAPID CITY
PROFILE SITES. LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT IN THAT REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40KTS POSSIBLE. THE CDR
AND BFF TAF SITES MAY NOT BE QUITE THAT HIGH SINCE THEY ARE IN A
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TAF SITES AIA AND SNY MAY SEE HIGHER GUSTS
DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE PINE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS REGARDLESS OF THE MIXING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAIN THEME THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHICH MAY CAUSE THEM TO DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
COX
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS FIRE ACTIVITY. THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINED WITH GREEN-UP CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK
POTENTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC
000
FXUS65 KCYS 210953
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
THE WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...RADAR IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH LIGHT RAIN ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST VWP FROM UDX IS SHOWING 50KTS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC WITH THE VWP AT CYS SHOWING AROUND 40KTS. THESE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE LESS.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE TOPS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY MIX OUT OR NOT. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS WHETHER THE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO STAY IN THE NORTH...WE MAY END UP ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WE MAY END UP PULLING
THE TRIGGER FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NORTH PLATTE AND RAPID CITY TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CLOUD TRENDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAY
SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WE DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS A BIT SINCE THERE CURRENT
READINGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH FORWARD SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15KTS. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AROUND 500J/KG I WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
TRANSPORT LLVL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON WED
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS AND LLVL RH PROGS SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT AND THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT ON THURS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON THURS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE LLVL CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUES TO -2C)
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THURS AFTN...THERE IS A
CAPPING LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED. SE WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY ON THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM WYOMING INTO MONTANA ON THURS NIGHT.
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF...SIMILAR TO ONE NIGHT AGO...DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE DRIER GFS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BEST TSTM CHANCES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE ECMWF PUSHES 45-50F
DEWPOINTS TO THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEND TO BELIEVE THAT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT FAR WEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...THAT THE GFS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH AND IS PUSHING THE
MOISTURE TOO FAR EAST. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT (AROUND 35-40 KTS) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT
THE CDR TAF SITE. CEILINGS IN WESTERN SD WERE MAINLY IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY IN THE RAIN BANDS. WOULD NOT SURPRISED IF THE CEILINGS
DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT THEY
MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
AFTER DAYBREAK...THE CEILINGS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE VFR
CATEGORY. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN 15Z-00Z
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TAF SITES...DUE TO GOOD MIXING.
COX
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS FIRE ACTIVITY. THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINED WITH GREEN-UP CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK
POTENTIAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...COX
FIRE WEATHER...REC
000
FXUS65 KCYS 210528
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1128 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM SIDNEY NORTHWARD
TOWARDS CHADRON. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY GUSTS HIGHER THAN
40 MPH. LOWERED POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NIOBRARA
COUNTY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAIN...WINDY...AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VORT LOBE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA BRINGING A SHOT
OF LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 45 TO 55 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED BUT THOSE HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DUE SO THIS
EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT ALL. WILL START TO
SEE SOME INSTABILITY RETURN WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
WEATHER OVER THE CWA WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. PERIODS OF MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THESE LOWS AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
PANHANDLE WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AIDED BY A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL MEANDER IN THAT AREA. IMPULSES WILL BE HARD TO TIME BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT
THE CDR TAF SITE. CEILINGS IN WESTERN SD WERE MAINLY IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY IN THE RAIN BANDS. WOULD NOT SURPRISED IF THE CEILINGS
DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT THEY
MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
AFTER DAYBREAK...THE CEILINGS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE VFR
CATEGORY. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN 15Z-00Z
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TAF SITES...DUE TO GOOD MIXING.
COX
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...COX
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 210309
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
909 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM SIDNEY NORTHWARD
TOWARDS CHADRON. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY GUSTS HIGHER THAN
40 MPH. LOWERED POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NIOBRARA
COUNTY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAIN...WINDY...AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VORT LOBE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA BRINGING A SHOT
OF LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 45 TO 55 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED BUT THOSE HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DUE SO THIS
EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT ALL. WILL START TO
SEE SOME INSTABILITY RETURN WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
WEATHER OVER THE CWA WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. PERIODS OF MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THESE LOWS AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
PANHANDLE WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AIDED BY A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL MEANDER IN THAT AREA. IMPULSES WILL BE HARD TO TIME BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WILL BE THE PANHANDLE. MOST AREAS OUT THERE REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY. OUT WEST...THE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT SOME OUT WEST AT KRWL AND KLAR LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. FOR THE PANHANDLE...MVFR TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 202327
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
527 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VORT LOBE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA BRINGING A SHOT
OF LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 45 TO 55 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED BUT THOSE HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DUE SO THIS
EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT ALL. WILL START TO
SEE SOME INSTABILITY RETURN WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
WEATHER OVER THE CWA WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. PERIODS OF MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THESE LOWS AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
PANHANDLE WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AIDED BY A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL MEANDER IN THAT AREA. IMPULSES WILL BE HARD TO TIME BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WILL BE THE PANHANDLE. MOST AREAS OUT THERE REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY. OUT WEST...THE
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT SOME OUT WEST AT KRWL AND KLAR LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. FOR THE PANHANDLE...MVFR TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 202149
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
349 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VORT LOBE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA BRINGING A SHOT
OF LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 45 TO 55 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED BUT THOSE HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DUE SO THIS
EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT ALL. WILL START TO
SEE SOME INSTABILITY RETURN WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
WEATHER OVER THE CWA WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY BY A COUPLE OF UPPER
LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. PERIODS OF MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THESE LOWS AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
PANHANDLE WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AIDED BY A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL MEANDER IN THAT AREA. IMPULSES WILL BE HARD TO TIME BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIEBL
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
000
FXUS65 KCYS 201737
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1137 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
ADJUSTED TODAYS GRIDS TO BUMP UP WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. DO NOT THINK A WARNING WILL BE NEEDED BUT CONVECTIVE
RAIN SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. WINDS WILL
DROP SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING.
DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AND LATEST COMPUTER MODELS AREA SHOWING LESS QPF OVER THESE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...LOWERING POPS SOUTH AND WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT WITH MANY
SITES IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH AND
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BACKING DOWN THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES MARGINAL BUT
BEING A LATE SEASON EVENT WILL LET IT RIDE AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD REALLY SHUT DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THU AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING AREAS NEAR THE CO/WY
AND CO/NE BORDER AROUND MIDDAY. BEHIND THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE A BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
MOUNTAINS/RIDGE TOPS MAY ALSO INDUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE ARE EXPECTING GOOD
MIXING TO TAKE PLACE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FREE
AREAS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WITH
SUSTAINED VALUES OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CALL FOR
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
TONIGHT:
NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT. THE MODELS ARE
REALLY NOT SHOWING ANY DISTINCT DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY
MAY TRY TO PIVOT THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE A
TOUGH CALL ON WHO WILL RECEIVE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS JUNCTURE...WE WOULD VENTURE TO SAY THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THERE
IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY SEE A DECENT
CHANCE OF MORE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND 00Z. SNOW CHANCES WILL ALSO
PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 4-7 INCH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.
TUESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PAN OUT SINCE THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS WAVE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE IT TO SHEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WE DID KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE EXCEPT FOR
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE TAIL END
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CLOSED LOW WILL STILL AFFECT THAT
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1C TO -2C
OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON
THURSDAY AFTN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
BETTER SFC INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS LOOKS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE MOIST SE UPSLOPE.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EACH AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. HARD TO PINPOINT AN AFTERNOON THAT WILL HAVE GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AT THIS POINT. THE GFS HAS THE SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE WY-NE BORDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE ECMWF PULLS THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR
IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD AND RESULTANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
MORGAN CREEK PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. HOWEVER...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY FIRE CONCERNS TODAY. THE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA IN GREENUP AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THE GREEN UP POTENTIAL IN THE
PANHANDLE. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS (50+) WILL RETURN TO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ112-
114.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ002-003-019>021- 054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC
000
FXUS65 KCYS 201727
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1127 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
ADJUSTED TODAYS GRIDS TO BUMP UP WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. DO NOT THINK A WARNING WILL BE NEEDED BUT CONVECTIVE
RAIN SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. WINDS WILL
DROP SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING.
DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AND LATEST COMPUTER MODELS AREA SHOWING LESS QPF OVER THESE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...LOWERING POPS SOUTH AND WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT WITH MANY
SITES IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH AND
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BACKING DOWN THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES MARGINAL BUT
BEING A LATE SEASON EVENT WILL LET IT RIDE AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD REALLY SHUT DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THU AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING AREAS NEAR THE CO/WY
AND CO/NE BORDER AROUND MIDDAY. BEHIND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WE
MAY SEE A BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINS/RIDGE TOPS
MAY ALSO INDUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE ARE EXPECTING GOOD MIXING TO TAKE
PLACE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FREE AREAS. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL MOST
LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF
25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE
WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CALL FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
TONIGHT:
NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT. THE MODELS ARE
REALLY NOT SHOWING ANY DISTINCT DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY
MAY TRY TO PIVOT THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE A
TOUGH CALL ON WHO WILL RECEIVE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS JUNCTURE...WE WOULD VENTURE TO SAY THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THERE
IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY SEE A DECENT
CHANCE OF MORE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND 00Z. SNOW CHANCES WILL ALSO
PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 4-7 INCH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.
TUESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PAN OUT SINCE THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS WAVE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE IT TO SHEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WE DID KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE EXCEPT FOR
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE TAIL END
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CLOSED LOW WILL STILL AFFECT THAT
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1C TO -2C
OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON
THURSDAY AFTN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
BETTER SFC INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS LOOKS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE MOIST SE UPSLOPE.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EACH AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. HARD TO PINPOINT AN AFTERNOON THAT WILL HAVE GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AT THIS POINT. THE GFS HAS THE SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE WY-NE BORDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE ECMWF PULLS THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR
IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD AND RESULTANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
HOW GUSTY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
LINGERING ACROSS RWL WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF DAY AND BRING RAIN TO ALL OF
THE PANHANDLE SITES BY MIDDAY. CYS AND LAR SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS BY AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ONCE THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE
CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY UNTIL THEN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN RWL WHERE THEY ARE STARTING OUT IN THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE LOW PRESSURE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY SITUATION WHICH WILL
CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
40KTS BY MID MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
MORGAN CREEK PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. HOWEVER...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY FIRE CONCERNS TODAY. THE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA IN GREENUP AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THE GREEN UP POTENTIAL IN THE
PANHANDLE. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS (50+) WILL RETURN TO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ112-
114.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC
000
FXUS65 KCYS 201527
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
927 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT WITH MANY
SITES IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH AND
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BACKING DOWN THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES MARGINAL BUT
BEING A LATE SEASON EVENT WILL LET IT RIDE AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD REALLY SHUT DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THU AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING AREAS NEAR THE CO/WY
AND CO/NE BORDER AROUND MIDDAY. BEHIND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WE
MAY SEE A BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINS/RIDGE TOPS
MAY ALSO INDUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE ARE EXPECTING GOOD MIXING TO TAKE
PLACE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FREE AREAS. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS LIKE AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL MOST
LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF
25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE
WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CALL FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
TONIGHT:
NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT. THE MODELS ARE
REALLY NOT SHOWING ANY DISTINCT DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY
MAY TRY TO PIVOT THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE A
TOUGH CALL ON WHO WILL RECEIVE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS JUNCTURE...WE WOULD VENTURE TO SAY THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THERE
IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY SEE A DECENT
CHANCE OF MORE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND 00Z. SNOW CHANCES WILL ALSO
PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 4-7 INCH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.
TUESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY SURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PAN OUT SINCE THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS WAVE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE IT TO SHEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WE DID KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE EXCEPT FOR
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE TAIL END
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CLOSED LOW WILL STILL AFFECT THAT
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING LI VALUES OF -1C TO -2C
OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON
THURSDAY AFTN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
BETTER SFC INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS LOOKS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE MOIST SE UPSLOPE.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EACH AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. HARD TO PINPOINT AN AFTERNOON THAT WILL HAVE GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AT THIS POINT. THE GFS HAS THE SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE WY-NE BORDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE ECMWF PULLS THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE CWA WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR
IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD AND RESULTANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY EXIST FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
HOW GUSTY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
LINGERING ACROSS RWL WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF DAY AND BRING RAIN TO ALL OF
THE PANHANDLE SITES BY MIDDAY. CYS AND LAR SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS BY AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ONCE THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE
CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY UNTIL THEN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN RWL WHERE THEY ARE STARTING OUT IN THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE LOW PRESSURE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SQUEEZE PLAY SITUATION WHICH WILL
CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
40KTS BY MID MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
MORGAN CREEK PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. HOWEVER...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY FIRE CONCERNS TODAY. THE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA IN GREENUP AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THE GREEN UP POTENTIAL IN THE
PANHANDLE. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS (50+) WILL RETURN TO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ112-
114.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...REC
| 
