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000
FXUS65 KCYS 141203
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RELATIVELY QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WIND PRONE AREAS. GUSTS HAVE CONTINUOUSLY BEEN
BETWEEN 52 TO 58 MPH AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE LAST NIGHT. A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND MORE-SO OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE/FOOTHILLS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THROUGH TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW LLVL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO NE COLORADO BY LATE THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE...AND MAY PRODUCE A QUICK HALF
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY TO INCLUDE THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. KEPT
THE SNOWY RANGE OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...SINCE IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WILL RECEIVE RESPECTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
VERY LITTLE IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND LEE-SIDE SLOPES OF THE
SNOWY RANGE.

FOR MONDAY...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA AND WYOMING...BUT THIS TIME PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW DUE TO WARMING LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
HIGH WIND EVENT. THIS EVENT APPEARS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AND MODEL 700MB-500MB OMEGA WHICH SHOWS WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE EVEN ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWEST
PLATTE AND LARAMIE COUNTIES. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GUSTS
AROUND 70 MPH FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS IN ADDITION TO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY...AND ALL OF PLATTE COUNTY. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LARAMIE
COUNTY AND CONVERSE COUNTY AS WELL...WITH THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWING
THE BEST SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY OVER THESE AREAS
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

TUESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO DRY OUT THUS ONLY A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. CONTINUED MILD PER
PROGGED THICKNESS TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD INDUCING DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING...AND COMBINED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL PRODUCE A
QUITE MILD DAY FOR MID FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 WEST OF I-25 AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF I-25.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A COLD
FRONT ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...SPREADING SHOWERS OVER OUR
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FEATURE. A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY.

SATURDAY...MODELS PROJECT ANOTHER FAST MOVING AND LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA OR
WYOMING...THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WYOMING TAFS...PERIODS OF MVFR AT RAWLINS FROM 14Z TO 18Z...
OTHERWISE VFR WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z.

AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...VFR. GUSTS TO 38 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z.

NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR. GUSTS TO 24 KNOTS FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TODAY...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     WYZ112.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WYZ106-107-110-115>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 141203
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RELATIVELY QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WIND PRONE AREAS. GUSTS HAVE CONTINUOUSLY BEEN
BETWEEN 52 TO 58 MPH AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE LAST NIGHT. A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND MORE-SO OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE/FOOTHILLS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THROUGH TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW LLVL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO NE COLORADO BY LATE THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE...AND MAY PRODUCE A QUICK HALF
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY TO INCLUDE THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. KEPT
THE SNOWY RANGE OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...SINCE IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WILL RECEIVE RESPECTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
VERY LITTLE IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND LEE-SIDE SLOPES OF THE
SNOWY RANGE.

FOR MONDAY...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA AND WYOMING...BUT THIS TIME PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW DUE TO WARMING LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
HIGH WIND EVENT. THIS EVENT APPEARS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC AND MODEL 700MB-500MB OMEGA WHICH SHOWS WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE EVEN ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWEST
PLATTE AND LARAMIE COUNTIES. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GUSTS
AROUND 70 MPH FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS IN ADDITION TO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY...AND ALL OF PLATTE COUNTY. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LARAMIE
COUNTY AND CONVERSE COUNTY AS WELL...WITH THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWING
THE BEST SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY OVER THESE AREAS
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

TUESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO DRY OUT THUS ONLY A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. CONTINUED MILD PER
PROGGED THICKNESS TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD INDUCING DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING...AND COMBINED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL PRODUCE A
QUITE MILD DAY FOR MID FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 WEST OF I-25 AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF I-25.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A COLD
FRONT ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...SPREADING SHOWERS OVER OUR
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FEATURE. A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY.

SATURDAY...MODELS PROJECT ANOTHER FAST MOVING AND LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA OR
WYOMING...THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WYOMING TAFS...PERIODS OF MVFR AT RAWLINS FROM 14Z TO 18Z...
OTHERWISE VFR WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z.

AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...VFR. GUSTS TO 38 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z.

NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR. GUSTS TO 24 KNOTS FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TODAY...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     WYZ112.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WYZ106-107-110-115>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 141010
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RELATIVELY QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WIND PRONE AREAS. GUSTS HAVE CONTINUOUSLY BEEN
BETWEEN 52 TO 58 MPH AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE LAST NIGHT. A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA AND MORE-SO OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE/FOOTHILLS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THROUGH TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW LLVL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO NE COLORADO BY LATE THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE...AND MAY PRODUCE A QUICK HALF
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY TO INCLUDE THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. KEPT
THE SNOWY RANGE OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...SINCE IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WILL RECEIVE RESPECTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
VERY LITTLE IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND LEE-SIDE SLOPES OF THE
SNOWY RANGE.

FOR MONDAY...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA AND WYOMING...BUT THIS TIME PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF
SNOW DUE TO WARMING LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
HIGH WIND EVENT. THIS EVENT APPEARS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO
THE POSITION AND STRENTH OF THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE MORE
ANTICYLONIC AND MODEL 700MB-500MB OMEGA WHICH SHOWS WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE EVEN ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWEST
PLATTE AND LARAMIE COUNTIES. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GUSTS
AROUND 70 MPH FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS IN ADDITION TO THE LARAMIE
VALLEY...AND ALL OF PLATTE COUNTY. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LARAMIE
COUNTY AND CONVERSE COUNTY AS WELL...WITH THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWING
THE BEST SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY OVER THESE AREAS
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

TUESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO DRY OUT THUS ONLY A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. CONTINUED MILD PER
PROGGED THICKNESS TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD INDUCING DECENT SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING...AND COMBINED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL PRODUCE A
QUITE MILD DAY FOR MID FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 WEST OF I-25 AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF I-25.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A COLD
FRONT ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...SPREADING SHOWERS OVER OUR
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FEATURE. A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY.

SATURDAY...MODELS PROJECT ANOTHER FAST MOVING AND LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA OR
WYOMING...THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND WINDS NOW
OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS VFR. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND BECOME QUITE
STRONG AFTER 17Z OR SO FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TODAY...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     WYZ112.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WYZ106-107-110-115>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 140512
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1012 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS HAVE NOW EASED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED AS THE
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. BUT NOW...WINDS SEEM TO BE ON THE WANE. SO
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. GETTING 53 MPH GUSTS AT CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE AS THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
STRONG WINDS OUT THERE. HAVE THE ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 11
PM...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND WINDS NOW
OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS VFR. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND BECOME QUITE
ATRONG AFTER 17Z OOR SO FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 140512
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1012 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS HAVE NOW EASED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED AS THE
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. BUT NOW...WINDS SEEM TO BE ON THE WANE. SO
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. GETTING 53 MPH GUSTS AT CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE AS THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
STRONG WINDS OUT THERE. HAVE THE ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 11
PM...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND WINDS NOW
OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS VFR. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND BECOME QUITE
ATRONG AFTER 17Z OOR SO FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 140352
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
852 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS HAVE NOW EASED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED AS THE
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. BUT NOW...WINDS SEEM TO BE ON THE WANE. SO
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. GETTING 53 MPH GUSTS AT CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE AS THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
STRONG WINDS OUT THERE. HAVE THE ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 11
PM...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 KTS AT CYS AND LAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING. GUSTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
LESS...GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 140052
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
552 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. GETTING 53 MPH GUSTS AT CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE AS THIS IS A FAVORBALE SETUP FOR STRONG
WINDS OUT THERE. HAVE THE ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 11 PM...BUT
MAY NEED TO EXTEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 KTS AT CYS AND LAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING. GUSTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
LESS...GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 140052
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
552 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. GETTING 53 MPH GUSTS AT CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE AS THIS IS A FAVORBALE SETUP FOR STRONG
WINDS OUT THERE. HAVE THE ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 11 PM...BUT
MAY NEED TO EXTEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 KTS AT CYS AND LAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING. GUSTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
LESS...GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 140052
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
552 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. GETTING 53 MPH GUSTS AT CHADRON. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE AS THIS IS A FAVORBALE SETUP FOR STRONG
WINDS OUT THERE. HAVE THE ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 11 PM...BUT
MAY NEED TO EXTEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 KTS AT CYS AND LAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING. GUSTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
LESS...GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 132329
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
429 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 KTS AT CYS AND LAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING. GUSTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
LESS...GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 132329
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
429 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 KTS AT CYS AND LAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING. GUSTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
LESS...GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 132329
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
429 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 KTS AT CYS AND LAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING. GUSTS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
LESS...GENERALLY 20-25 KTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 132302
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ASLO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN THE
STRENGHT OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SNY AND AIA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 132302
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ASLO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN THE
STRENGHT OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SNY AND AIA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML





000
FXUS65 KCYS 132302
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST CONCERN IS WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NIOBRARA AND CONVERSE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS UPWARDS
OF 55 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLIER TODAY. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING
UP ON THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR.
A FEW GUSTS PUSHING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. ALSO THE STRONGER
FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MAY ASLO HAVE TO WATCH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE GIVEN THE
STRENGHT OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE. WIND ADVISORY TYPE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE GRADIENT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT SUCH THAT WINDS MAY PUSH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT WIND HOVERING AROUND HIGH WIND CRITERIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS ACCELERATING WELL INTO
THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA RANGE BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND POSSIBLY
THE SNOWY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PLAINS THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY
WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS SNOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALWAYS HAS A WAY OF PRODUCING
SURPRISES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

TUESDAY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 M
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE LLVL GRADIENT
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 40S
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

INTO THURSDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO SHOW WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...MOVING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER WYOMING. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SNY AND AIA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF/KC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML




000
FXUS65 KCYS 131824
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1124 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. NOW THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN SHIFTS TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE BELOW
HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS BUT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD ACCELERATE. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS SPREAD EAST INTO THE INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE CITY OF CHEYENNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SNY AND AIA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 131805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1105 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SNY AND AIA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 131141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
441 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS OF 8000 FEET AGL
OR HIGHER. GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z...THEN GUSTS NEAR 35
KNOTS AT RAWLINS AFTER 01Z...LESSER GUSTS AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE
AFTER 01Z.

NEBRASKA TAFS...MVFR AT CHADRON THROUGH 18Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS
UP TO 37 KNOTS. IFR AT ALLIANCE THROUGH 16Z...THEN MVFR THROUGH
18Z THEN VFR WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. MVFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF
THROUGH 18Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. IFR AT SIDNEY
THROUGH 15Z...THEN MVFR THROUGH 19Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS TO
23 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-
     116-117.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ119.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ106.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ054-
     055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 131141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
441 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS OF 8000 FEET AGL
OR HIGHER. GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z...THEN GUSTS NEAR 35
KNOTS AT RAWLINS AFTER 01Z...LESSER GUSTS AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE
AFTER 01Z.

NEBRASKA TAFS...MVFR AT CHADRON THROUGH 18Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS
UP TO 37 KNOTS. IFR AT ALLIANCE THROUGH 16Z...THEN MVFR THROUGH
18Z THEN VFR WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. MVFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF
THROUGH 18Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. IFR AT SIDNEY
THROUGH 15Z...THEN MVFR THROUGH 19Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS TO
23 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-
     116-117.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ119.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ106.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ054-
     055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 131141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
441 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS OF 8000 FEET AGL
OR HIGHER. GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z...THEN GUSTS NEAR 35
KNOTS AT RAWLINS AFTER 01Z...LESSER GUSTS AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE
AFTER 01Z.

NEBRASKA TAFS...MVFR AT CHADRON THROUGH 18Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS
UP TO 37 KNOTS. IFR AT ALLIANCE THROUGH 16Z...THEN MVFR THROUGH
18Z THEN VFR WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. MVFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF
THROUGH 18Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. IFR AT SIDNEY
THROUGH 15Z...THEN MVFR THROUGH 19Z...THEN VFR WITH GUSTS TO
23 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-
     116-117.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ119.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ106.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ054-
     055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 131100
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
400 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-
     116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ106.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ054-
     055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 131100
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
400 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-
     116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ106.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ054-
     055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





000
FXUS65 KCYS 131100
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
400 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT 11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NE COLORADO. SOME FOG HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS
DOUGLAS AND PINE BLUFFS...AND BRIEFLY OVER CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD
OVERNIGHT...PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE IT ON TIME IN THE
NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST...ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...BUT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
ARLINGTON AREA BETWEEN RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AND THE I80 SUMMIT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A
HYBRID OF A BORA AND GAP WIND SCENARIO...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AS FAR EAST AS THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX
AREAS. ADDED THE I80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE WARNING AS WELL
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LLVL SUBSIDENCE...AN INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 18Z TODAY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...AND
700MB WINDS OVER 60 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW PLATTE
COUNTY...EXTENDED THE DURATION OF THE WARNING UNTIL 16Z SINCE
700MB WINDS REMAIN OVER 50 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS NEAR ARLINGTON CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 55 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY BETWEEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
OVER 58 MPH. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING. INCREASED WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE...KEPT THE EASTERN ZONES OUT OF THE WARNING FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS INDICATE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES...MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT
PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF SNOW. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY
FROM OUR REGION...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...THUS POPS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING ALONG THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

TUESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO OVER THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES...WITH 50S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINATION OF A WARMING AIRMASS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL BE ONE OF THE MILDEST DATES OF THE LATE WINTER WITH
PROGGED THICKNESSES NEAR 5610 METERS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
MINIMUM OF CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER
WYOMING SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FORECASTS.

.FRIDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-
     116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ106.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ054-
     055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




000
FXUS65 KCYS 130513
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1013 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WEBCAMS NEAR CARPENTER IN EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...ALONG WITH
DECREASING VISIBILITIES REPORTED AT PINE BLUFFS...LED ME TO EXPAND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER WEST. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THIS AS WELL...SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON EXPANDING THIS ADVISORY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST IBM AND SNY OBSERVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOWING
VISIBILITIES DOWN NEAR 1/4 MILE. THESE VISIBILITY REPORTS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING WEST TOWARDS LARAMIE COUNTY
NEAR PINE BLUFFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FURTHER WEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

GETTINGS REPORTS FROM THE SIDNEY AND KIMBALL ASOS/AWOS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG ALREADY THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH
CONDITIONS TO SEE IF THIS FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED FOG WEST UP THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY INTO TORRINGTON
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ119.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NEZ054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 130513
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1013 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WEBCAMS NEAR CARPENTER IN EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...ALONG WITH
DECREASING VISIBILITIES REPORTED AT PINE BLUFFS...LED ME TO EXPAND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER WEST. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THIS AS WELL...SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON EXPANDING THIS ADVISORY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST IBM AND SNY OBSERVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOWING
VISIBILITIES DOWN NEAR 1/4 MILE. THESE VISIBILITY REPORTS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING WEST TOWARDS LARAMIE COUNTY
NEAR PINE BLUFFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FURTHER WEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

GETTINGS REPORTS FROM THE SIDNEY AND KIMBALL ASOS/AWOS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG ALREADY THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH
CONDITIONS TO SEE IF THIS FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED FOG WEST UP THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY INTO TORRINGTON
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ119.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NEZ054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 130308
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
808 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

LATEST IBM AND SNY OBSERVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOWING
VISIBILITIES DOWN NEAR 1/4 MILE. THESE VISIBILITY REPORTS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST HOUR. LATEST 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING WEST TOWARDS LARAMIE COUNTY
NEAR PINE BLUFFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FURTHER WEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

GETTINGS REPORTS FROM THE SIDNEY AND KIMBALL ASOS/AWOS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG ALREADY THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH
CONDITIONS TO SEE IF THIS FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED FOG WEST UP THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY INTO TORRINGTON
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NEZ054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 130210
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
710 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

GETTINGS REPORTS FROM THE SIDNEY AND KIMBALL ASOS/AWOS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG ALREADY THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH
CONDITIONS TO SEE IF THIS FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED FOG WEST UP THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY INTO TORRINGTON
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 122311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 122311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 122311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BACKDOOR FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. FOLLOWED LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEST WINDS RETURN AFTER 18Z THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
LOWER STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 122230 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
7000 FEET AGL. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN GUSTS OF
30 TO 38 KNOTS AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...BECOMING IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 122230 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EAST TO I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
7000 FEET AGL. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN GUSTS OF
30 TO 38 KNOTS AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...BECOMING IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 122217
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS
SPREADING EAST OF I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
7000 FEET AGL. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN GUSTS OF
30 TO 38 KNOTS AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...BECOMING IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 122217
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS
SPREADING EAST OF I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
7000 FEET AGL. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN GUSTS OF
30 TO 38 KNOTS AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...BECOMING IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ




000
FXUS65 KCYS 122217
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY CANADA TO FL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS HAD DRIFTED WEST INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COWBOY
STATE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS CLOUD
DECK EXTENDED FROM NEAR LUSK WY TO JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WHILE
WESTERLY WINDS AND 40S PREVAILED TO THE WEST.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROGGING THE ARCTIC FRONT TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WY PLAINS THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN NE SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM
700-950MB ALONG WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN NE. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. THE FOG/DRIZZLE MAY EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS A LUSK WY-KIMBALL NE LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ATTM AND NEXT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE ID/MT SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SD/NORTHERN NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GAP WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT
700-850MB GRADIENT EXCEEDS 60M BY 21Z SATURDAY...AND DECREASED
BELOW 50M BY 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS AT 700MB PEAK NEAR 60 KT AT 00Z
SUNDAY. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WY ZONES 106 AND 110 FROM
NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25 AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS
SPREADING EAST OF I-25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...HIGH WIND HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY...RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF
LINE.

TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING.

FRIDAY...COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR
MID FEBRUARY BASED ON PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
7000 FEET AGL. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN GUSTS OF
30 TO 38 KNOTS AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...BECOMING IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A QUICK
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE LEESIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ





000
FXUS65 KCYS 121738
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1038 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MODIFIED ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS NUDGED SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST SO FAR. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS RESIDING JUST NORTHEAST OF
CHADRON HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN POSITION AS WELL. EXPECT THIS FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OUT OF CANADA WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AS WELL. FRONT SHOULD BACK UP AGAINST THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WASH BACK EAST TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW INDUCES LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
COLD AIRMASS QUITE SHALLOW BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
BEFORE ERODING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

WARMER AIR RETURNS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS A BIT
TRICKY OVER THE PANHANDLE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
RETREATS/MIXES OUT. OTHERWISE CONCERNS WILL SWITCH TO INCREASING
WINDS AROUND THE SE WYOMING MTNS/WIND PRONE AREAS LATER SATURDAY
AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50KTS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND
IT. LATEST GFS HAS DRIED OUT PCPN OVER THE CWA WHILE LATEST NAM
HAS RETURNED A BIT OF PCPN OVER THE NRN CWA SATURDAY EVENING. NOT
MUCH IF ANY DOES OCCUR. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND A BIT BREEZY
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NWLY FLOW ENHANCING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT THE MEAN POSITION OF THE JET STREAM IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAM
LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW INDICATE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL NOT
PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT LLVL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES...DID NOT INCREASE POP TOO MUCH ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST WYOMING DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE JET AXIS AS WELL AS WELL A SUBSTANTIAL LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROUGHING. FAVORABLE
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE WIND ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH
THE COOLEST DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +4C
TO +8C WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WYOMING TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
7000 FEET AGL. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN GUSTS OF
30 TO 38 KNOTS AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

NEBRASKA TAFS...BECOMING IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOMING MVFR AFTER 16Z/SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOST CONDITIONS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. A COLD
FRONT WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING THEN RETREAT
BACK EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY THEN WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE WINDY
AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 121053
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
353 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MODIFIED ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS NUDGED SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST SO FAR. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS RESIDING JUST NORTHEAST OF
CHADRON HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN POSITION AS WELL. EXPECT THIS FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OUT OF CANADA WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AS WELL. FRONT SHOULD BACK UP AGAINST THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WASH BACK EAST TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW INDUCES LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
COLD AIRMASS QUITE SHALLOW BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
BEFORE ERODING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

WARMER AIR RETURNS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS A BIT
TRICKY OVER THE PANHANDLE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
RETREATS/MIXES OUT. OTHERWISE CONCERNS WILL SWITCH TO INCREASING
WINDS AROUND THE SE WYOMING MTNS/WIND PRONE AREAS LATER SATURDAY
AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 50KTS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND
IT. LATEST GFS HAS DRIED OUT PCPN OVER THE CWA WHILE LATEST NAM
HAS RETURNED A BIT OF PCPN OVER THE NRN CWA SATURDAY EVENING. NOT
MUCH IF ANY DOES OCCUR. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND A BIT BREEZY
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NWLY FLOW ENHANCING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT THE MEAN POSITION OF THE JET STREAM IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAM
LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW INDICATE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL NOT
PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT LLVL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES...DID NOT INCREASE POP TOO MUCH ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST WYOMING DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE JET AXIS AS WELL AS WELL A SUBSTANTIAL LLVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROUGHING. FAVORABLE
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE WIND ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH
THE COOLEST DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +4C
TO +8C WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

A SLOW MOVING SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND DAWN TO
NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY NEAR KCDR AND KAIA...AND THEN LATER
THIS MORNING FURTHER SOUTH NEAR KBFF AND KSNY. LOW STRATUS WITH
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR IFR AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT REMAIN LIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OVER 20 KNOTS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOST CONDITIONS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. A COLD
FRONT WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING THEN RETREAT
BACK EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY THEN WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE WINDY
AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 120543
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1043 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE TYPICAL
WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT OR FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH CHADRON
NEBRASKA AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SOME FOG. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...IN
PARTICULAR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING BY THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINLYAS
TO HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN ITS SHALLOW
NATURE...BUT IT MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE EAST AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO APPARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT OVER WESTERN WYOMING FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND
MOVES SLOWLY CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SLOWLY
WESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOSTLY 40S WEST OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA OR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUS WILL RETAIN MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM INHERITED GRIDS.

SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
FRONT AND RELATIVELY MILD 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
AND HAVE PAINTED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM DOUGLAS
TO CHADRON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BAND MOVING ACROSS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
HOLD SWAY FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS A EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY NEXT WEEK AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN THE GFS PROGS 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A SLOW MOVING SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY WASH OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY. LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR IFR AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 120432
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
932 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE TYPICAL
WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT OR FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH CHADRON
NEBRASKA AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SOME FOG. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...IN
PARTICULAR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING BY THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINLYAS
TO HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN ITS SHALLOW
NATURE...BUT IT MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE EAST AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO APPARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT OVER WESTERN WYOMING FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND
MOVES SLOWLY CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SLOWLY
WESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOSTLY 40S WEST OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA OR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUS WILL RETAIN MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM INHERITED GRIDS.

SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
FRONT AND RELATIVELY MILD 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
AND HAVE PAINTED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM DOUGLAS
TO CHADRON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BAND MOVING ACROSS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
HOLD SWAY FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS A EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY NEXT WEEK AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN THE GFS PROGS 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND KCDR WHERE LOW
CLOUDS MAY FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD TOMORROW...BACKING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 120006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
506 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO APPARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT OVER WESTERN WYOMING FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND
MOVES SLOWLY CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SLOWLY
WESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOSTLY 40S WEST OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA OR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUS WILL RETAIN MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM INHERITED GRIDS.

SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
FRONT AND RELATIVELY MILD 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
AND HAVE PAINTED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM DOUGLAS
TO CHADRON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BAND MOVING ACROSS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
HOLD SWAY FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS A EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY NEXT WEEK AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN THE GFS PROGS 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND KCDR WHERE LOW
CLOUDS MAY FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD TOMORROW...BACKING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 120006
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
506 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO APPARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT OVER WESTERN WYOMING FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND
MOVES SLOWLY CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SLOWLY
WESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOSTLY 40S WEST OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA OR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUS WILL RETAIN MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM INHERITED GRIDS.

SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
FRONT AND RELATIVELY MILD 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
AND HAVE PAINTED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM DOUGLAS
TO CHADRON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BAND MOVING ACROSS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
HOLD SWAY FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS A EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY NEXT WEEK AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN THE GFS PROGS 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND KCDR WHERE LOW
CLOUDS MAY FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD TOMORROW...BACKING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LOW STRATUS...FOG...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 112120
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
220 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO APPARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT OVER WESTERN WYOMING FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND
MOVES SLOWLY CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SLOWLY
WESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOSTLY 40S WEST OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA OR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUS WILL RETAIN MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM INHERITED GRIDS.

SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
FRONT AND RELATIVELY MILD 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
AND HAVE PAINTED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM DOUGLAS
TO CHADRON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BAND MOVING ACROSS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
HOLD SWAY FOR SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS A EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WY NEXT WEEK AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN THE GFS PROGS 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONGER INVOF THE WY MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATEST SREF/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS MVFR-IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS INTO
NRN NE PANHANDLE INCLUDING CDR AND AIA LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT
DRIFTS WWD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 111749
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1049 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING
FROM SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NWLY UPPER FLOW.
SHOULD SEE SOME VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM
THIS. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH LESS WIND AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGES OVER THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY A PUSH OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...BACKING UP AGAINST THE MTNS OF SE WY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES...
MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK EAST
EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT RIGHT NOW NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA WILL SCOOT ACROSS LATER SATURDAY AND COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MEAN POSITION OF THE JET
STREAM NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN...AS THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND RAPIDLY MOVING SECONDARY DISTURBANCE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT LLVL
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING. KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MENTION
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE JET AXIS
WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE THE JET DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARLY EVERY DAY. 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED
AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLY NEARLY EVERY DAY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH IT
IS NEARLY 8 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT NEXT THURSDAY AS A 150 KT JET AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONGER INVOF THE WY MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST SREF/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS MVFR-IFR CIGS/MVFR
VIS INTO NRN NE PANHANDLE INCLUDING CDR AND AIA LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
FRONT DRIFTS SWWD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEATHER FACTORS AND
FUELS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP WESTWARD AND
AGAINST THE MTNS FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE




000
FXUS65 KCYS 111749
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1049 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING
FROM SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NWLY UPPER FLOW.
SHOULD SEE SOME VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM
THIS. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH LESS WIND AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGES OVER THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY A PUSH OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...BACKING UP AGAINST THE MTNS OF SE WY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES...
MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK EAST
EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT RIGHT NOW NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA WILL SCOOT ACROSS LATER SATURDAY AND COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MEAN POSITION OF THE JET
STREAM NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN...AS THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND RAPIDLY MOVING SECONDARY DISTURBANCE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT LLVL
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING. KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MENTION
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE JET AXIS
WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE THE JET DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARLY EVERY DAY. 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED
AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLY NEARLY EVERY DAY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH IT
IS NEARLY 8 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT NEXT THURSDAY AS A 150 KT JET AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONGER INVOF THE WY MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST SREF/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS MVFR-IFR CIGS/MVFR
VIS INTO NRN NE PANHANDLE INCLUDING CDR AND AIA LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
FRONT DRIFTS SWWD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEATHER FACTORS AND
FUELS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP WESTWARD AND
AGAINST THE MTNS FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE





000
FXUS65 KCYS 111749
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1049 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING
FROM SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NWLY UPPER FLOW.
SHOULD SEE SOME VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM
THIS. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH LESS WIND AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGES OVER THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY A PUSH OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...BACKING UP AGAINST THE MTNS OF SE WY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES...
MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK EAST
EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT RIGHT NOW NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA WILL SCOOT ACROSS LATER SATURDAY AND COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MEAN POSITION OF THE JET
STREAM NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN...AS THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND RAPIDLY MOVING SECONDARY DISTURBANCE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT LLVL
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING. KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MENTION
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE JET AXIS
WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE THE JET DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARLY EVERY DAY. 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED
AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLY NEARLY EVERY DAY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH IT
IS NEARLY 8 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT NEXT THURSDAY AS A 150 KT JET AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONGER INVOF THE WY MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST SREF/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS MVFR-IFR CIGS/MVFR
VIS INTO NRN NE PANHANDLE INCLUDING CDR AND AIA LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
FRONT DRIFTS SWWD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEATHER FACTORS AND
FUELS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP WESTWARD AND
AGAINST THE MTNS FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE





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