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000
FXUS65 KCYS 220922
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BUT HAVING
SOME TROUBLE SURVIVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY AROUND THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING THEN TURN MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AN IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT A TONGUE OF BETTER INSTABILITY/CAPES 500-100 J/KG/
LOOKS TO NOSE UP OUT OF COLORADO INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WITH MARGINAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THERE. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MAINLY DRY AND
WARM TUESDAY THOUGH ANOTHER MODEST SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THAT AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
AND BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND AS WELL...CLIMBING TO
+14C AND EVEN +16C ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS UP FROM +10C TO +12C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
AND ALMOST SUMMER LIKE WITH 90S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 80S OUT
WEST. GOING TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WELL WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

WEATHER BEGINS TO CHANGE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO NEVADA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. GFS MUCH FASTER...BY ROUGHLY
12 TO 18 HOURS ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. NEW ECMWF
SLOWER AND HAS THE LOW NOT MOVING INTO NEVADA UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS SHOWERS MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS FOR POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AT 06Z...WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER COLORADO TO STEADILY
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYO AFTER
08Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT IFR STRATUS OVER KCYS AFTER
08Z IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT MOST
SITES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH T-STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
THE MOST PART. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
AREAS THEN LESS WIND ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDS. SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTRMS TODAY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE






000
FXUS65 KCYS 220554
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1154 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ARM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO ITS N AND E
ADVECTING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AT
KCAG EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KCYS/KGJX 88D RETURNS SUGGEST
THIS MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT WRN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A
WELL DEFINED SFC TROF BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SNOWY
RANGE. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SFC TROF HAS COMBINED WITH 250+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AS ANALYZED FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SPARK A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CENTENNIAL/
WOODS LANDING/ALBANY OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CENTER WILL REACH
IDAHO BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ARM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWFA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER AND THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. LIGHTNING WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SW COLORADO LAST NIGHT...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP IT
TONIGHT UP HERE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES OUT ONTO THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NOW HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW WOBBLES THRU THE COWBOY STATE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF...WHICH
WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. PROGD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...WITH SBCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER-LOW WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT BREEZY AND WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER PROHIBITS THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION. EVEN SO...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
HIGHS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ON TUESDAY...YIELDING MID
70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WED AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON WED WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENTS AND FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURS EXCEPT THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER MONTANA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS YET AGAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING ITS AXIS TO NEAR UTAH BY SAT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON SAT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY A COOLDOWN AND IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN. WITH SUCH BIG
DIFFERENCES ALMOST A WEEK OUT DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON
SAT BUT KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AT 06Z...WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER COLORADO TO STEADILY
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYO AFTER
08Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT IFR STRATUS OVER KCYS AFTER
08Z IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT MOST
SITES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH T-STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI.
EVEN SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN









000
FXUS65 KCYS 220554
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1154 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ARM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO ITS N AND E
ADVECTING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AT
KCAG EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KCYS/KGJX 88D RETURNS SUGGEST
THIS MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT WRN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A
WELL DEFINED SFC TROF BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SNOWY
RANGE. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SFC TROF HAS COMBINED WITH 250+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AS ANALYZED FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SPARK A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CENTENNIAL/
WOODS LANDING/ALBANY OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CENTER WILL REACH
IDAHO BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ARM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWFA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER AND THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. LIGHTNING WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SW COLORADO LAST NIGHT...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP IT
TONIGHT UP HERE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES OUT ONTO THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NOW HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW WOBBLES THRU THE COWBOY STATE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF...WHICH
WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. PROGD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...WITH SBCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER-LOW WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT BREEZY AND WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER PROHIBITS THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION. EVEN SO...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
HIGHS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ON TUESDAY...YIELDING MID
70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WED AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON WED WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENTS AND FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURS EXCEPT THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER MONTANA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS YET AGAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING ITS AXIS TO NEAR UTAH BY SAT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON SAT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY A COOLDOWN AND IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN. WITH SUCH BIG
DIFFERENCES ALMOST A WEEK OUT DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON
SAT BUT KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AT 06Z...WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER COLORADO TO STEADILY
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYO AFTER
08Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT IFR STRATUS OVER KCYS AFTER
08Z IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT MOST
SITES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH T-STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI.
EVEN SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220036
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
636 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ARM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO ITS N AND E
ADVECTING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AT
KCAG EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KCYS/KGJX 88D RETURNS SUGGEST
THIS MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT WRN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A
WELL DEFINED SFC TROF BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SNOWY
RANGE. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SFC TROF HAS COMBINED WITH 250+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AS ANALYZED FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SPARK A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CENTENNIAL/
WOODS LANDING/ALBANY OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CENTER WILL REACH
IDAHO BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ARM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWFA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER AND THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. LIGHTNING WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SW COLORADO LAST NIGHT...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP IT
TONIGHT UP HERE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES OUT ONTO THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NOW HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW WOBBLES THRU THE COWBOY STATE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF...WHICH
WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. PROGD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...WITH SBCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER-LOW WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT BREEZY AND WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER PROHIBITS THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION. EVEN SO...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
HIGHS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ON TUESDAY...YIELDING MID
70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WED AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON WED WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENTS AND FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURS EXCEPT THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER MONTANA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS YET AGAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING ITS AXIS TO NEAR UTAH BY SAT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON SAT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY A COOLDOWN AND IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN. WITH SUCH BIG
DIFFERENCES ALMOST A WEEK OUT DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON
SAT BUT KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TONIGHT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCYS
AS PATCHY IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH T-STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI.
EVEN SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 220036
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
636 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ARM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO ITS N AND E
ADVECTING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AT
KCAG EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KCYS/KGJX 88D RETURNS SUGGEST
THIS MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT WRN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A
WELL DEFINED SFC TROF BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SNOWY
RANGE. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SFC TROF HAS COMBINED WITH 250+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AS ANALYZED FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SPARK A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CENTENNIAL/
WOODS LANDING/ALBANY OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CENTER WILL REACH
IDAHO BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ARM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWFA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER AND THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. LIGHTNING WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SW COLORADO LAST NIGHT...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP IT
TONIGHT UP HERE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES OUT ONTO THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NOW HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW WOBBLES THRU THE COWBOY STATE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF...WHICH
WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. PROGD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...WITH SBCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER-LOW WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT BREEZY AND WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER PROHIBITS THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION. EVEN SO...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
HIGHS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ON TUESDAY...YIELDING MID
70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WED AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON WED WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENTS AND FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURS EXCEPT THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER MONTANA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS YET AGAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING ITS AXIS TO NEAR UTAH BY SAT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON SAT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY A COOLDOWN AND IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN. WITH SUCH BIG
DIFFERENCES ALMOST A WEEK OUT DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON
SAT BUT KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TONIGHT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCYS
AS PATCHY IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH T-STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI.
EVEN SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 212130
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ARM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO ITS N AND E
ADVECTING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AT
KCAG EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KCYS/KGJX 88D RETURNS SUGGEST
THIS MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT WRN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A
WELL DEFINED SFC TROF BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SNOWY
RANGE. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SFC TROF HAS COMBINED WITH 250+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AS ANALYZED FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SPARK A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CENTENNIAL/
WOODS LANDING/ALBANY OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CENTER WILL REACH
IDAHO BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ARM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWFA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER AND THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. LIGHTNING WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SW COLORADO LAST NIGHT...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP IT
TONIGHT UP HERE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES OUT ONTO THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NOW HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW WOBBLES THRU THE COWBOY STATE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF...WHICH
WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. PROGD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...WITH SBCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER-LOW WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT BREEZY AND WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER PROHIBITS THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION. EVEN SO...EXECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
HIGHS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ON TUESDAY...YIELDING MID
70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WED AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON WED WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENTS AND FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURS EXCEPT THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER MONTANA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS YET AGAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING ITS AXIS TO NEAR UTAH BY SAT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON SAT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY A COOLDOWN AND IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN. WITH SUCH BIG
DIFFERENCES ALMOST A WEEK OUT DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON
SAT BUT KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER AROUND 00Z WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT RWL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS EXCEPT AT LAR WHERE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI.
EVEN SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211748
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1148 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TODAY...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A
PROMISING TREND FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FALL ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AROUND
3 AM MDT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF LAS VEGAS...AS WELL OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO EAST OF DURANGO.

FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CARBON...ALBANY AND
WESTERN LARAMIE. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CARBON COUNTY WITH DECENT POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CARBON COUNTY TO ALBANY COUNTY TO WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY.

TONIGHT...NICELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
WITH DECENT 850 MB AND 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...SPREADING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. WITH A
PLETHORA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DECENT UPWARD MOTION
ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE...MOST NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...AS PROMISED...THIS DAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEAUCOUP LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LUSK TO CHEYENNE IF CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS OROGRAPHICALLY TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES...AND 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM LARAMIE
TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN FAVORS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SAME POSITION...THUS EXPECT A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. STILL THOUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A
LUSK TO WHEATLAND LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IS OF A LESSER EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE RIDGE FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY
PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS HANDLE THIS TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE DEEPER SLOWER
ECMWF. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COWBOY STATE SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER AROUND 00Z WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT RWL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS EXCEPT AT LAR WHERE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 211748
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1148 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TODAY...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A
PROMISING TREND FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FALL ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AROUND
3 AM MDT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF LAS VEGAS...AS WELL OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO EAST OF DURANGO.

FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CARBON...ALBANY AND
WESTERN LARAMIE. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CARBON COUNTY WITH DECENT POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CARBON COUNTY TO ALBANY COUNTY TO WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY.

TONIGHT...NICELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
WITH DECENT 850 MB AND 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...SPREADING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. WITH A
PLETHORA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DECENT UPWARD MOTION
ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE...MOST NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...AS PROMISED...THIS DAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEAUCOUP LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LUSK TO CHEYENNE IF CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS OROGRAPHICALLY TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES...AND 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM LARAMIE
TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN FAVORS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SAME POSITION...THUS EXPECT A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. STILL THOUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A
LUSK TO WHEATLAND LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IS OF A LESSER EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE RIDGE FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY
PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS HANDLE THIS TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE DEEPER SLOWER
ECMWF. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COWBOY STATE SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER AROUND 00Z WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT RWL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS EXCEPT AT LAR WHERE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211058 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TODAY...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A
PROMISING TREND FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FALL ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AROUND
3 AM MDT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF LAS VEGAS...AS WELL OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO EAST OF DURANGO.

FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CARBON...ALBANY AND
WESTERN LARAMIE. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CARBON COUNTY WITH DECENT POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CARBON COUNTY TO ALBANY COUNTY TO WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY.

TONIGHT...NICELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
WITH DECENT 850 MB AND 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...SPREADING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. WITH A
PLETHORA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DECENT UPWARD MOTION
ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE...MOST NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...AS PROMISED...THIS DAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEAUCOUP LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LUSK TO CHEYENNE IF CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS OROGRAPHICALLY TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES...AND 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM LARAMIE
TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN FAVORS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SAME POSITION...THUS EXPECT A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. STILL THOUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A
LUSK TO WHEATLAND LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IS OF A LESSER EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE RIDGE FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY
PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS HANDLE THIS TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE DEEPER SLOWER
ECMWF. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COWBOY STATE SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY/NE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOUTHERLY FETCH MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED STRATUS/PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT RAWLINS AND
LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON AND VCSH AT CHEYENNE THIS EVENING. MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHRA AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN









000
FXUS65 KCYS 211058 CCA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TODAY...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A
PROMISING TREND FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FALL ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AROUND
3 AM MDT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF LAS VEGAS...AS WELL OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO EAST OF DURANGO.

FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CARBON...ALBANY AND
WESTERN LARAMIE. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CARBON COUNTY WITH DECENT POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CARBON COUNTY TO ALBANY COUNTY TO WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY.

TONIGHT...NICELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
WITH DECENT 850 MB AND 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...SPREADING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. WITH A
PLETHORA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DECENT UPWARD MOTION
ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE...MOST NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...AS PROMISED...THIS DAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEAUCOUP LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LUSK TO CHEYENNE IF CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS OROGRAPHICALLY TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES...AND 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM LARAMIE
TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN FAVORS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SAME POSITION...THUS EXPECT A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. STILL THOUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A
LUSK TO WHEATLAND LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IS OF A LESSER EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE RIDGE FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY
PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS HANDLE THIS TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE DEEPER SLOWER
ECMWF. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COWBOY STATE SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY/NE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOUTHERLY FETCH MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED STRATUS/PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST TO THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT RAWLINS AND
LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON AND VCSH AT CHEYENNE THIS EVENING. MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHRA AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN










000
FXUS65 KCYS 211002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TODAY...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A
PROMISING TREND FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FALL ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AROUND
3 AM MDT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF LAS VEGAS...AS WELL OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO EAST OF DURANGO.

FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CARBON...ALBANY AND
WESTERN LARAMIE. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CARBON COUNTY WITH DECENT POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CARBON COUNTY TO ALBANY COUNTY TO WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY.

TONIGHT...NICELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
WITH DECENT 850 MB AND 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...SPREADING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. WITH A
PLETHORA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DECENT UPWARD MOTION
ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE...MOST NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...AS PROMISED...THIS DAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEAUCOUP LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LUSK TO CHEYENNE IF CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS OROGRAPHICALLY TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES...AND 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM LARAMIE
TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN FAVORS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SAME POSITION...THUS EXPECT A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. STILL THOUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A
LUSK TO WHEATLAND LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IS OF A LESSER EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE RIDGE FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY
PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS HANDLE THIS TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE DEEPER SLOWER
ECMWF. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COWBOY STATE SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY/NE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOUTHERLY FETCH MAY RESULT
IN SCATTERED STRATUS/PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON AND VCSH AT
CHEYENNE THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 211002
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TODAY...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A
PROMISING TREND FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FALL ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AROUND
3 AM MDT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF LAS VEGAS...AS WELL OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO EAST OF DURANGO.

FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CARBON...ALBANY AND
WESTERN LARAMIE. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER CARBON COUNTY WITH DECENT POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CARBON COUNTY TO ALBANY COUNTY TO WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY.

TONIGHT...NICELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...
WITH DECENT 850 MB AND 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...SPREADING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. WITH A
PLETHORA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DECENT UPWARD MOTION
ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE...MOST NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...AS PROMISED...THIS DAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEAUCOUP LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DECENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LUSK TO CHEYENNE IF CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ADEQUATE...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS OROGRAPHICALLY TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES...AND 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM LARAMIE
TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN FAVORS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE SAME POSITION...THUS EXPECT A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. STILL THOUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A
LUSK TO WHEATLAND LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IS OF A LESSER EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE RIDGE FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY
PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS HANDLE THIS TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE DEEPER SLOWER
ECMWF. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COWBOY STATE SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY/NE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOUTHERLY FETCH MAY RESULT
IN SCATTERED STRATUS/PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO THE LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON AND VCSH AT
CHEYENNE THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 210516
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1115 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

REX BLOCK OVR WRN NOAM SLOWING DOWNSTREAM PATTERN PROGRESSION.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPING OVR MTNS IN ADDITION TO LARAMIE CO. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1024MB SFC HI PUSHING LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-10F COOLER IN THE COOLER
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC HI WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW OVR THE SW CONUS WILL LIFT NE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO SRN CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MORE SO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOIST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE
WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
25 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PROGD SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVES
THRU. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE W-E ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FILLING UPPER LOW PASSES THRU THE CWFA.

THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS PROGD H7 TEMPS OF 8-10C YIELD AFTERNOON
HIGHS THAT WILL REACH THE 70S AT MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MON WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BY TUES WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN WITH
THE SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS QUICK TO BUILD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING
BY WED AND THURS. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THE LACK
OF DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
EMERGES BY FRI WITH REGARD TO EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BIG WESTERN
TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BY LATE FRI IN THE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO RAWLINS...SARATOGA AND LARAMIE
AERODROMES WITH VCTS MENTIONED. AERODROMES WEST OF DOUGLAS TO
KIMBALL LINE CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A UNSETTLED PERIOD THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI. EVEN SO MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN












000
FXUS65 KCYS 210021
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
621 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

REX BLOCK OVR WRN NOAM SLOWING DOWNSTREAM PATTERN PROGRESSION.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPING OVR MTNS IN ADDITION TO LARAMIE CO. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1024MB SFC HI PUSHING LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-10F COOLER IN THE COOLER
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC HI WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW OVR THE SW CONUS WILL LIFT NE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO SRN CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MORE SO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOIST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE
WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
25 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PROGD SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVES
THRU. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE W-E ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FILLING UPPER LOW PASSES THRU THE CWFA.

THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS PROGD H7 TEMPS OF 8-10C YIELD AFTERNOON
HIGHS THAT WILL REACH THE 70S AT MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MON WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BY TUES WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN WITH
THE SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS QUICK TO BUILD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING
BY WED AND THURS. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THE LACK
OF DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
EMERGES BY FRI WITH REGARD TO EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BIG WESTERN
TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BY LATE FRI IN THE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 621 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU SUNSET...AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A UNSETTLED PERIOD THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI. EVEN SO MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN









000
FXUS65 KCYS 210021
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
621 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

REX BLOCK OVR WRN NOAM SLOWING DOWNSTREAM PATTERN PROGRESSION.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPING OVR MTNS IN ADDITION TO LARAMIE CO. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1024MB SFC HI PUSHING LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-10F COOLER IN THE COOLER
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC HI WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW OVR THE SW CONUS WILL LIFT NE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO SRN CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MORE SO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOIST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE
WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
25 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PROGD SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVES
THRU. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE W-E ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FILLING UPPER LOW PASSES THRU THE CWFA.

THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS PROGD H7 TEMPS OF 8-10C YIELD AFTERNOON
HIGHS THAT WILL REACH THE 70S AT MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MON WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BY TUES WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN WITH
THE SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS QUICK TO BUILD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING
BY WED AND THURS. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THE LACK
OF DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
EMERGES BY FRI WITH REGARD TO EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BIG WESTERN
TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BY LATE FRI IN THE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 621 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU SUNSET...AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A UNSETTLED PERIOD THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI. EVEN SO MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN










000
FXUS65 KCYS 202033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
233 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

REX BLOCK OVR WRN NOAM SLOWING DOWNSTREAM PATTERN PROGRESSION.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE PIX SHOW JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPING OVR MTNS IN ADDITION TO LARAMIE CO. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1024MB SFC HI PUSHING LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-10F COOLER IN THE COOLER
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC HI WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR MASS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW OVR THE SW CONUS WILL LIFT NE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO SRN CARBON/ALBANY
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MORE SO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOIST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE
WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
25 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PROGD SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT ONLY GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVES
THRU. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE W-E ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FILLING UPPER LOW PASSES THRU THE CWFA.

THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS PROGD H7 TEMPS OF 8-10C YIELD AFTERNOON
HIGHS THAT WILL REACH THE 70S AT MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MON WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BY TUES WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN WITH
THE SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS QUICK TO BUILD OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING
BY WED AND THURS. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...GENERALLY 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THE LACK
OF DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
EMERGES BY FRI WITH REGARD TO EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BIG WESTERN
TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BY LATE FRI IN THE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED
TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A UNSETTLED PERIOD THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI. EVEN SO MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 201735
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TODAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP STABLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT
LOW LEVELS WITH NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MAY SEE ISOLATED LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DECENT 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

SUNDAY...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A THETA-E RIDGE SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO TORRINGTON
LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WITH ADEQUATE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH THE PREFERRED CHOICE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT TRANSLATES EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
A STALLED LEE TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WITH THURSDAY THE WARMEST DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED
TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN







000
FXUS65 KCYS 201735
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TODAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP STABLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT
LOW LEVELS WITH NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MAY SEE ISOLATED LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DECENT 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

SUNDAY...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A THETA-E RIDGE SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO TORRINGTON
LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WITH ADEQUATE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH THE PREFERRED CHOICE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT TRANSLATES EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
A STALLED LEE TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WITH THURSDAY THE WARMEST DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED
TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN








000
FXUS65 KCYS 200941
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
341 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TODAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP STABLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT
LOW LEVELS WITH NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MAY SEE ISOLATED LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DECENT 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

SUNDAY...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A THETA-E RIDGE SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO TORRINGTON
LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WITH ADEQUATE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH THE PREFERRED CHOICE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT TRANSLATES EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
A STALLED LEE TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WITH THURSDAY THE WARMEST DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH- NORTHWEST. COOL FRONT WILL FOLLOW
LATER THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT NEIGHBORING
AERODROMES LIKE SARATOGA AND LARAMIE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





000
FXUS65 KCYS 200941
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
341 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TODAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP STABLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT
LOW LEVELS WITH NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MAY SEE ISOLATED LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DECENT 700 MB POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY.

SUNDAY...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A THETA-E RIDGE SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO TORRINGTON
LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WITH ADEQUATE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH THE PREFERRED CHOICE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT TRANSLATES EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
A STALLED LEE TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WITH THURSDAY THE WARMEST DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH- NORTHWEST. COOL FRONT WILL FOLLOW
LATER THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SNOWY...SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT NEIGHBORING
AERODROMES LIKE SARATOGA AND LARAMIE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN






000
FXUS65 KCYS 200604
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1204 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
LARAMIE COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND INTERACTED WITH WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA TO MAINTAIN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP AT THIS HOUR FROM
EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE EAST...BUT THINK THE
MAIN SFC AND MID LEVEL FORCING HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS WITH MENTION OF ISO-T THROUGH 06Z FOR THIS
AREA...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
ALREADY TAKING A DOWNWARD TURN. THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FOCUSED HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MODELS HINT AT A SCT STRATUS
DECK ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAY`S 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN FROM TODAY`S HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. UPSLOPE MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED LOW STRATUS ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES FOR THE PLAINS
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 200604
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1204 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
LARAMIE COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND INTERACTED WITH WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA TO MAINTAIN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP AT THIS HOUR FROM
EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE EAST...BUT THINK THE
MAIN SFC AND MID LEVEL FORCING HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS WITH MENTION OF ISO-T THROUGH 06Z FOR THIS
AREA...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
ALREADY TAKING A DOWNWARD TURN. THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FOCUSED HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MODELS HINT AT A SCT STRATUS
DECK ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAY`S 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN FROM TODAY`S HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. UPSLOPE MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED LOW STRATUS ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES FOR THE PLAINS
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 200313
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
913 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
LARAMIE COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND INTERACTED WITH WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA TO MAINTAIN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP AT THIS HOUR FROM
EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE EAST...BUT THINK THE
MAIN SFC AND MIDLEVEL FORCING HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS WITH MENTION OF ISO-T THROUGH 06Z FOR THIS
AREA...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
ALREADY TAKING A DOWNWARD TURN. THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FOCUSED HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MODELS HINT AT A SCT STRATUS
DECK ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAYS 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN FROM TODAYS HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MIDLVL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLVL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
02Z FROM VCTS KCYS TO KSNY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EASE THROUGH SUNSET WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WYOMING PLAINS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 200313
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
913 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
LARAMIE COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND INTERACTED WITH WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA TO MAINTAIN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP AT THIS HOUR FROM
EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE EAST...BUT THINK THE
MAIN SFC AND MIDLEVEL FORCING HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS WITH MENTION OF ISO-T THROUGH 06Z FOR THIS
AREA...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
ALREADY TAKING A DOWNWARD TURN. THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FOCUSED HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MODELS HINT AT A SCT STRATUS
DECK ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAYS 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN FROM TODAYS HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MIDLVL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLVL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
02Z FROM VCTS KCYS TO KSNY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EASE THROUGH SUNSET WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WYOMING PLAINS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER







000
FXUS65 KCYS 192351
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAYS 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN FROM TODAYS HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MIDLVL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLVL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
02Z FROM VCTS KCYS TO KSNY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EASE THROUGH SUNSET WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WYOMING PLAINS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER








000
FXUS65 KCYS 192158
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
358 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAYS 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN FROM TODAYS HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MIDLVL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLVL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...STRETCHING FROM
LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SIDNEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 01Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER






000
FXUS65 KCYS 192158
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
358 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAYS 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN FROM TODAYS HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MIDLVL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLVL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...STRETCHING FROM
LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SIDNEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 01Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER





000
FXUS65 KCYS 191746
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1146 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PREDAWN WATER VAPOR/H5 COMPOSITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTING WITH A NE-SW SURFACE
FRONT BISECTING WY PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS
SW...CENTRAL AND NE WY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO A RAWLINS-DOUGLAS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND 60S AND 70S WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NE THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
USHER IN A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
700MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 12C THIS AFTERNOON TO 9C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER CA MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS
NV/UT SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD NE INTO
SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING AN INCH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WY WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WILL
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY...THUS ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP IN
THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES AGAIN WITH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AGAIN WARMING SLOWLY...AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP IT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...STRETCHING FROM
LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SIDNEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 01Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICTS
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI





000
FXUS65 KCYS 191746
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1146 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PREDAWN WATER VAPOR/H5 COMPOSITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTING WITH A NE-SW SURFACE
FRONT BISECTING WY PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS
SW...CENTRAL AND NE WY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO A RAWLINS-DOUGLAS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND 60S AND 70S WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NE THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
USHER IN A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
700MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 12C THIS AFTERNOON TO 9C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER CA MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS
NV/UT SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD NE INTO
SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING AN INCH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WY WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WILL
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY...THUS ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP IN
THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES AGAIN WITH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AGAIN WARMING SLOWLY...AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP IT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...STRETCHING FROM
LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SIDNEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 01Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICTS
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI






000
FXUS65 KCYS 191133
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
533 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PREDAWN WATER VAPOR/H5 COMPOSITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTING WITH A NE-SW SURFACE
FRONT BISECTING WY PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS
SW...CENTRAL AND NE WY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO A RAWLINS-DOUGLAS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND 60S AND 70S WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NE THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
USHER IN A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
700MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 12C THIS AFTERNOON TO 9C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER CA MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS
NV/UT SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD NE INTO
SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING AN INCH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WY WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WILL
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY...THUS ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP IN
THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES AGAIN WITH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AGAIN WARMING SLOWLY...AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP IT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SYNOPTICALLY...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...SENDING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO A RAPID CITY TO CHEYENNE LINE BY DAWN...THEN
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY.

WYOMING AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE SITES...AFTER 19Z AT CHEYENNE.

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICTS
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI







000
FXUS65 KCYS 191133
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
533 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PREDAWN WATER VAPOR/H5 COMPOSITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTING WITH A NE-SW SURFACE
FRONT BISECTING WY PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS
SW...CENTRAL AND NE WY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO A RAWLINS-DOUGLAS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND 60S AND 70S WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NE THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
USHER IN A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
700MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 12C THIS AFTERNOON TO 9C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER CA MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS
NV/UT SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD NE INTO
SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING AN INCH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WY WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WILL
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY...THUS ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP IN
THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES AGAIN WITH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AGAIN WARMING SLOWLY...AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP IT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SYNOPTICALLY...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...SENDING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO A RAPID CITY TO CHEYENNE LINE BY DAWN...THEN
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY.

WYOMING AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE SITES...AFTER 19Z AT CHEYENNE.

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICTS
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI








000
FXUS65 KCYS 191015
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PREDAWN WATER VAPOR/H5 COMPOSITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTING WITH A NE-SW SURFACE
FRONT BISECTING WY PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS
SW...CENTRAL AND NE WY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO A RAWLINS-DOUGLAS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND 60S AND 70S WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NE THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
USHER IN A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
700MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 12C THIS AFTERNOON TO 9C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER CA MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS
NV/UT SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD NE INTO
SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING AN INCH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WY WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WILL
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY...THUS ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP IN
THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES AGAIN WITH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AGAIN WARMING SLOWLY...AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP IT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

SYNOPTICALLY...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SENDING
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO A RAPID CITY TO CHEYENNE LINE BY DAWN...
THEN LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

WYOMING AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE SITES...FROM 11Z TO 17Z AT RAWLINS...AND
AFTER 21Z AT CHEYENNE.

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICTS
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI





000
FXUS65 KCYS 191015
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PREDAWN WATER VAPOR/H5 COMPOSITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTING WITH A NE-SW SURFACE
FRONT BISECTING WY PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS
SW...CENTRAL AND NE WY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE TO A RAWLINS-DOUGLAS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND 60S AND 70S WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NE THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
USHER IN A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
700MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 12C THIS AFTERNOON TO 9C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S VALLEYS AND PLAINS.

UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER CA MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS
NV/UT SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD NE INTO
SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING AN INCH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN WY WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WILL
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FURTHER AWAY...THUS ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP IN
THE MOIST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES AGAIN WITH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AGAIN WARMING SLOWLY...AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP IT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

SYNOPTICALLY...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SENDING
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO A RAPID CITY TO CHEYENNE LINE BY DAWN...
THEN LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

WYOMING AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE SITES...FROM 11Z TO 17Z AT RAWLINS...AND
AFTER 21Z AT CHEYENNE.

NEBRASKA AERODROMES...VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICTS
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI






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