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000
FXUS63 KDDC 010918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FLAT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RETURN TO
WARM WEATHER. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH A WARM SURGE OF AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. WE BUMPED UP HIGHS TO CLOSE TO
100F ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS LIKE LIBERAL. A FAIRLY STRONG
POLAR JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, LEADING TO LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER NOT BEFORE WE HAVE ONE
MORE ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 90S. THEN THINGS BECOME QUITE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONT
TIMING, STRENGTH, AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THIS
FRONT AND WILL BE CARRYING CHANCE POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, ADVECTION OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE 30 PERCENT POPS INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AS BOTH MODELS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE GREATER
QPF SIGNAL TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER (MORE
SO BY THE GFS MODEL). THIS IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES IN THE TWO
MODELS END. THE ECMWF ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN CHECK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WARM FRONT, WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE TROUGHING/LOWER
HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH. GIVEN THE
USUAL BETTER SKILL IN THE DAY 5-6 FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF, THIS
COOLER SOLUTION WOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. OFFICIALLY IN THE GRIDS,
SATURDAY HIGHS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS, BUT SHOULD THE ECMWF RUN
VERIFY, THEN IT WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING EASTERLY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FLAT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RETURN TO
WARM WEATHER. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH A WARM SURGE OF AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. WE BUMPED UP HIGHS TO CLOSE TO
100F ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS LIKE LIBERAL. A FAIRLY STRONG
POLAR JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, LEADING TO LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER NOT BEFORE WE HAVE ONE
MORE ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 90S. THEN THINGS BECOME QUITE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONT
TIMING, STRENGTH, AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THIS
FRONT AND WILL BE CARRYING CHANCE POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, ADVECTION OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE 30 PERCENT POPS INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AS BOTH MODELS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE GREATER
QPF SIGNAL TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER (MORE
SO BY THE GFS MODEL). THIS IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES IN THE TWO
MODELS END. THE ECMWF ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN CHECK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WARM FRONT, WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE TROUGHING/LOWER
HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH. GIVEN THE
USUAL BETTER SKILL IN THE DAY 5-6 FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF, THIS
COOLER SOLUTION WOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. OFFICIALLY IN THE GRIDS,
SATURDAY HIGHS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS, BUT SHOULD THE ECMWF RUN
VERIFY, THEN IT WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING EASTERLY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010747
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES FELL OVER A LIMITED
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ELLIS COUNTY WHERE STORM WERE MOST NUMEROUS
LAST EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PEELED OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
LEAVING THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 CLEAR. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED  BY METAR
WIND AND TEMPERATURE DATA. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WERE OBSERVED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA  BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
STILL HOVERING IN THE LOW 60`S IN THIS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINICZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPERJET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD  SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
WITH THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WNDS TURNING EASTELRY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010747
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES FELL OVER A LIMITED
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ELLIS COUNTY WHERE STORM WERE MOST NUMEROUS
LAST EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PEELED OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
LEAVING THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 CLEAR. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED  BY METAR
WIND AND TEMPERATURE DATA. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WERE OBSERVED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA  BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
STILL HOVERING IN THE LOW 60`S IN THIS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINICZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPERJET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD  SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
WITH THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WNDS TURNING EASTELRY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010622
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WNDS TURNING EASTELRY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 312345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPAWN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY
VCTS FOR THESE FOR A FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH DECREASING WINDS BY 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  89 /  40  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  88 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  90 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  91 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  88 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  93 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 312345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPAWN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY
VCTS FOR THESE FOR A FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH DECREASING WINDS BY 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  89 /  40  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  88 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  90 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  91 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  88 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  93 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311939
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311939
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311914
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311914
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  65  87  65 /  50  30  10  30
GCK 100  62  87  63 /  20  30  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 103  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  97  64  84  63 /  50  60  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  65  87  65 /  50  30  10  30
GCK 100  62  87  63 /  20  30  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 103  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  97  64  84  63 /  50  60  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311215
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR GCK, DDC, AND HYS FOR A 3 OR 4 HOUR
PERIOD. BY LATE EVENING, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL MOVE EAST,
LEAVING IN ITS WAKE LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311215
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR GCK, DDC, AND HYS FOR A 3 OR 4 HOUR
PERIOD. BY LATE EVENING, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL MOVE EAST,
LEAVING IN ITS WAKE LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...33




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH LIBERAL AND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF CEDAR BLUFF. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMETN FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA INTO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH LIBERAL AND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF CEDAR BLUFF. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMETN FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA INTO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  67  99  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  68  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  96  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  98  71  90 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  67  99  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  68  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  96  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  98  71  90 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33




000
FXUS63 KDDC 302319
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING. THINK THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT LOCAL TERMINALS. WILL WATCH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING, BUT DUE TO CONFIDENCE ISSUES, WILL LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 302319
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING. THINK THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT LOCAL TERMINALS. WILL WATCH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING, BUT DUE TO CONFIDENCE ISSUES, WILL LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  50  10
GCK  67  98  61  87 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  69  95  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  50  10
GCK  67  98  61  87 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  69  95  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301146
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 12 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
WYOMING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 12 TO 16 KNOT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301146
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 12 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
WYOMING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 12 TO 16 KNOT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300921
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
421 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDAY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLWOS SHOULD KEEP CPNVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY DRY BOUNDARY LLAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300921
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
421 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDAY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLWOS SHOULD KEEP CPNVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY DRY BOUNDARY LLAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

 LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WERE IN PLACE ALONG
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION WAS A
BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITY AT GCK TO AROUND 2 1/2 MILES.  THESE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDAY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLWOS SHOULD KEEP CPNVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY DRY BOUNDARY LLAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

 LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WERE IN PLACE ALONG
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION WAS A
BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITY AT GCK TO AROUND 2 1/2 MILES.  THESE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDAY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLWOS SHOULD KEEP CPNVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY DRY BOUNDARY LLAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300554
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY DRY BOUNDARY LLAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  97  65  87 /  20  20  50  10
GCK  65  96  61  87 /  20  20  20   0
EHA  64  98  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  68  99  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  68  93  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  69  95  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300554
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY DRY BOUNDARY LLAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  97  65  87 /  20  20  50  10
GCK  65  96  61  87 /  20  20  20   0
EHA  64  98  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  68  99  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  68  93  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  69  95  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292259
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BY NOON AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  68  97 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  59  93  65  96 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  61  93  64  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  68  93 /  10  10  20  40
P28  66  92  69  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292259
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BY NOON AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  68  97 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  59  93  65  96 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  61  93  64  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  68  93 /  10  10  20  40
P28  66  92  69  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291920
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  68  97 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  59  93  65  96 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  61  93  64  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  68  93 /  10  10  20  40
P28  66  92  69  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291920
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  68  97 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  59  93  65  96 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  61  93  64  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  68  93 /  10  10  20  40
P28  66  92  69  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291810
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
110 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST INTEREST REGARDING ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAMP UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS AN 80-95 KNOT 250MB JET NOSES INTO THE
ROCKIES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FORMIDABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DOWNSLOPE PLUME OF HOT AIR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ABOUT AS FAR AS A
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY LINE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS LINE AS WELL WITH A DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CAPPING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL BE.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A ZONE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (SLIGHT CHANCE 20
OR LOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS). AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INFLUENCE INTO KANSAS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY POLAR JET SHIFTING WELL
TO THE NORTH FROM NEVADA-IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST AND A RETURN TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  70  97 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  59  93  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  61  93  66  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  40
P28  66  92  71  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291810
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
110 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST INTEREST REGARDING ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAMP UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS AN 80-95 KNOT 250MB JET NOSES INTO THE
ROCKIES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FORMIDABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DOWNSLOPE PLUME OF HOT AIR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ABOUT AS FAR AS A
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY LINE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS LINE AS WELL WITH A DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CAPPING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL BE.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A ZONE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (SLIGHT CHANCE 20
OR LOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS). AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INFLUENCE INTO KANSAS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY POLAR JET SHIFTING WELL
TO THE NORTH FROM NEVADA-IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST AND A RETURN TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  70  97 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  59  93  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  61  93  66  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  40
P28  66  92  71  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DRY AND GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST REMOVING
ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR DYNAMICALLY AIDED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE SURFACE WILL ALSO GENERALLY SEE A LACK OF
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOLLOWING THE NAM SURFACE WIND
FORECAST. CLOUDS COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT
A RAPID REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD OCCUR ONCE INSOLATION IS
UNIMPEDED. MID 80S ARE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES MAY BE FOUND OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO LINE WHERE
TEMPERATURE TENDENCY IS NOT AS POSITIVE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVEN CALM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN
RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IT IS PLAUSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER  50S ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
IN THE WEST, WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST INTEREST REGARDING ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAMP UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS AN 80-95 KNOT 250MB JET NOSES INTO THE
ROCKIES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FORMIDABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DOWNSLOPE PLUME OF HOT AIR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ABOUT AS FAR AS A
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY LINE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS LINE AS WELL WITH A DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CAPPING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL BE.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A ZONE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (SLIGHT CHANCE 20
OR LOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS). AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INFLUENCE INTO KANSAS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY POLAR JET SHIFTING WELL
TO THE NORTH FROM NEVADA-IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST AND A RETURN TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  61  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  89  59  93  67 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  89  61  93  66 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  90  61  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  86  61  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
P28  90  66  92  71 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DRY AND GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST REMOVING
ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR DYNAMICALLY AIDED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE SURFACE WILL ALSO GENERALLY SEE A LACK OF
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOLLOWING THE NAM SURFACE WIND
FORECAST. CLOUDS COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT
A RAPID REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD OCCUR ONCE INSOLATION IS
UNIMPEDED. MID 80S ARE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES MAY BE FOUND OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO LINE WHERE
TEMPERATURE TENDENCY IS NOT AS POSITIVE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVEN CALM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN
RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IT IS PLAUSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER  50S ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
IN THE WEST, WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST INTEREST REGARDING ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAMP UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS AN 80-95 KNOT 250MB JET NOSES INTO THE
ROCKIES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FORMIDABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DOWNSLOPE PLUME OF HOT AIR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ABOUT AS FAR AS A
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY LINE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS LINE AS WELL WITH A DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CAPPING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL BE.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A ZONE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (SLIGHT CHANCE 20
OR LOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS). AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INFLUENCE INTO KANSAS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY POLAR JET SHIFTING WELL
TO THE NORTH FROM NEVADA-IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST AND A RETURN TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REPLACE IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  61  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  89  59  93  67 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  89  61  93  66 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  90  61  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  86  61  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
P28  90  66  92  71 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291151
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DRY AND GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST REMOVING
ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR DYNAMICALLY AIDED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE SURFACE WILL ALSO GENERALLY SEE A LACK OF
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOLLOWING THE NAM SURFACE WIND
FORECAST. CLOUDS COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT
A RAPID REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD OCCUR ONCE INSOLATION IS
UNIMPEDED. MID 80S ARE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES MAY BE FOUND OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO LINE WHERE
TEMPERATURE TENDENCY IS NOT AS POSITIVE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVEN CALM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN
RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IT IS PLAUSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER  50S ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
IN THE WEST, WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST INTEREST REGARDING ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAMP UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS AN 80-95 KNOT 250MB JET NOSES INTO THE
ROCKIES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FORMIDABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DOWNSLOPE PLUME OF HOT AIR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ABOUT AS FAR AS A
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY LINE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS LINE AS WELL WITH A DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CAPPING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL BE.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A ZONE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (SLIGHT CHANCE 20
OR LOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS). AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INFLUENCE INTO KANSAS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY POLAR JET SHIFTING WELL
TO THE NORTH FROM NEVADA-IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST AND A RETURN TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THE LACK OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS MUCH OF
THE DAY FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  61  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  88  59  93  67 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  88  61  93  66 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  90  61  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  85  61  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
P28  90  66  92  71 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291151
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DRY AND GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST REMOVING
ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR DYNAMICALLY AIDED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE SURFACE WILL ALSO GENERALLY SEE A LACK OF
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOLLOWING THE NAM SURFACE WIND
FORECAST. CLOUDS COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT
A RAPID REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD OCCUR ONCE INSOLATION IS
UNIMPEDED. MID 80S ARE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES MAY BE FOUND OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO LINE WHERE
TEMPERATURE TENDENCY IS NOT AS POSITIVE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVEN CALM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN
RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IT IS PLAUSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER  50S ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
IN THE WEST, WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST INTEREST REGARDING ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAMP UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS AN 80-95 KNOT 250MB JET NOSES INTO THE
ROCKIES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FORMIDABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
DOWNSLOPE PLUME OF HOT AIR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ABOUT AS FAR AS A
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY LINE. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS LINE AS WELL WITH A DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS, PARTICULARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH THE
GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS OF A SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CAPPING WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN, WHICH WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS, BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL BE.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A ZONE OF 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS (SLIGHT CHANCE 20
OR LOWER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS). AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INFLUENCE INTO KANSAS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY POLAR JET SHIFTING WELL
TO THE NORTH FROM NEVADA-IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST AND A RETURN TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THE LACK OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS MUCH OF
THE DAY FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  61  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  88  59  93  67 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  88  61  93  66 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  90  61  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  85  61  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
P28  90  66  92  71 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





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