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000
FXUS63 KDDC 022333
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE COMBINATON
OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID MONDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM THERE. THERE APPEARS
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH
BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY
EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT. LITTLE IS ANY CHANCE WAS MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO
THE FORECAST  TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL LINGER INT TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE
CONFIDENCE AS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER,
WHICH THE MODEL DO SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TO WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST  PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GFS MOS
TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT, AND BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY MID DAY JUST NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 12000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  10  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022333
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE COMBINATON
OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID MONDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM THERE. THERE APPEARS
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH
BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY
EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT. LITTLE IS ANY CHANCE WAS MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO
THE FORECAST  TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL LINGER INT TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE
CONFIDENCE AS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER,
WHICH THE MODEL DO SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TO WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST  PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GFS MOS
TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT, AND BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY MID DAY JUST NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 12000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  10  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 022006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE COMBINATON
OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID MONDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM THERE. THERE APPEARS
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH
BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY
EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT. LITTLE IS ANY CHANCE WAS MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO
THE FORECAST  TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL LINGER INT TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE
CONFIDENCE AS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER,
WHICH THE MODEL DO SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TO WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST  PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GFS MOS
TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER THIS IS WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST TIMING
OF THIS TERMINAL PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  10  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE COMBINATON
OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID MONDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM THERE. THERE APPEARS
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH
BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY
EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT. LITTLE IS ANY CHANCE WAS MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO
THE FORECAST  TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL LINGER INT TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE
CONFIDENCE AS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER,
WHICH THE MODEL DO SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TO WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST  PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GFS MOS
TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER THIS IS WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST TIMING
OF THIS TERMINAL PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  10  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 022006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE COMBINATON
OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID MONDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM THERE. THERE APPEARS
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH
BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY
EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT. LITTLE IS ANY CHANCE WAS MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO
THE FORECAST  TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL LINGER INT TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE
CONFIDENCE AS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER,
WHICH THE MODEL DO SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TO WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST  PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GFS MOS
TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER THIS IS WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST TIMING
OF THIS TERMINAL PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  10  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO ON MONDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. WITH THE COMBINATON
OF SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
WE FELT IT USEFUL TO PAINT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID MONDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AND PAST MIDNIGHT, AND ADJUST FROM THERE. THERE APPEARS
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MISS SECTIONS FARTHER NORTH
BASED ON SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER WITH ANY
EXPECTED MCS, UNCERTAINTY EXIST. THE BASIC POINT IS IT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT. LITTLE IS ANY CHANCE WAS MADE WITH HE LATEST BLEND RUNS TO
THE FORECAST  TEMPERATURES FOR EITHER HIGHS OR LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. POPS WILL LINGER INT TUESDAY, HOWEVER NOT WITH THE
CONFIDENCE AS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015


IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH  THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER,
WHICH THE MODEL DO SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TO WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME. THE SUPERBLEND FORECAST  PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GFS MOS
TEND TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER THIS IS WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST TIMING
OF THIS TERMINAL PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  67  90 /  10  10  60  40
GCK  67  90  66  90 /  10  20  60  40
EHA  68  87  64  91 /  20  40  60  40
LBL  69  89  67  92 /  10  40  60  40
HYS  69  96  68  87 /  10  10  60  50
P28  71  93  70  90 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 021756
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER THIS IS WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST TIMING
OF THIS TERMINAL PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 69 91 67 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 93 67 89 66 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 91 68 88 64 / 20 20 40 50
LBL 93 69 89 67 / 10 20 40 50
HYS 96 69 94 68 /  0 10 10 50
P28 93 71 93 70 / 10 10 10 50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 021756
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER THIS IS WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST TIMING
OF THIS TERMINAL PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 93 69 91 67 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 93 67 89 66 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 91 68 88 64 / 20 20 40 50
LBL 93 69 89 67 / 10 20 40 50
HYS 96 69 94 68 /  0 10 10 50
P28 93 71 93 70 / 10 10 10 50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 021100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. S WINDS 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  69  91  67 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  92  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  91  68  88  64 /  20  20  40  50
LBL  93  69  89  67 /  10  20  40  50
HYS  95  69  94  68 /  10  10  10  50
P28  93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 021100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. S WINDS 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  69  91  67 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  92  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  91  68  88  64 /  20  20  40  50
LBL  93  69  89  67 /  10  20  40  50
HYS  95  69  94  68 /  10  10  10  50
P28  93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  92  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  91  68  88  64 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  93  69  89  67 /  20  20  20  50
HYS  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  50
P28  93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  92  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  91  68  88  64 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  93  69  89  67 /  20  20  20  50
HYS  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  50
P28  93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  92  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  91  68  88  64 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  93  69  89  67 /  20  20  20  50
HYS  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  50
P28  93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN EXIT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AROUND 50 POPS MAINLY AFTER
7 PM MONDAY WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING. NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING AND IS ODD MODEL OUT. SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT,
BUT MAYBE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
WIND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 50 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME LINGERING STORMS WILL BE EXCITING THE AREA MAINLY
EAST OF DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARM RIDGING
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  92  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  91  68  88  64 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  93  69  89  67 /  20  20  20  50
HYS  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  50
P28  93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020552
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  50  20
GCK  67  92  67  91 /  10  10  50  20
EHA  68  86  67  92 /  20  20  40  10
LBL  69  86  69  92 /  20  20  40  10
HYS  69  95  70  88 /  10  10  40  30
P28  71  92  71  92 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020552
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  50  20
GCK  67  92  67  91 /  10  10  50  20
EHA  68  86  67  92 /  20  20  40  10
LBL  69  86  69  92 /  20  20  40  10
HYS  69  95  70  88 /  10  10  40  30
P28  71  92  71  92 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020552
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  50  20
GCK  67  92  67  91 /  10  10  50  20
EHA  68  86  67  92 /  20  20  40  10
LBL  69  86  69  92 /  20  20  40  10
HYS  69  95  70  88 /  10  10  40  30
P28  71  92  71  92 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020552
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ELKHART TO
HUGOTON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS NOT AS HEAVY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  50  20
GCK  67  92  67  91 /  10  10  50  20
EHA  68  86  67  92 /  20  20  40  10
LBL  69  86  69  92 /  20  20  40  10
HYS  69  95  70  88 /  10  10  40  30
P28  71  92  71  92 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020449
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE
BETTER MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES,
PROVIDING MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN
CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS WELL
OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION AS IT`S NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  86 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  93  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  68  96  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  93  71  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. WESTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY ON THE
WESTER PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN
SOUTHERN  WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, HOWEVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE  CWA WAS FAIRLY UNIFORM
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISING THOUGH MID TO UPPER 80S
AND MID 60`S DEW POINTS. THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTED LITTLE DEEP
SHEAR, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINED IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN KS
BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON  AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, PROVIDING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-
70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
AS IT`S NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  68  93  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  96  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  93  70  93 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. WESTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY ON THE
WESTER PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN
SOUTHERN  WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, HOWEVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE  CWA WAS FAIRLY UNIFORM
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISING THOUGH MID TO UPPER 80S
AND MID 60`S DEW POINTS. THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTED LITTLE DEEP
SHEAR, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINED IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN KS
BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON  AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, PROVIDING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-
70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
AS IT`S NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  68  93  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  96  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  93  70  93 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. WESTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY ON THE
WESTER PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN
SOUTHERN  WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, HOWEVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE  CWA WAS FAIRLY UNIFORM
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISING THOUGH MID TO UPPER 80S
AND MID 60`S DEW POINTS. THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTED LITTLE DEEP
SHEAR, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINED IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN KS
BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON  AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, PROVIDING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-
70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
AS IT`S NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  68  93  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  96  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  93  70  93 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011958
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. WESTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY ON THE
WESTER PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN
SOUTHERN  WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, HOWEVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE  CWA WAS FAIRLY UNIFORM
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISING THOUGH MID TO UPPER 80S
AND MID 60`S DEW POINTS. THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTED LITTLE DEEP
SHEAR, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINED IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN KS
BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON  AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, PROVIDING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-
70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
AS IT`S NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  93  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  92  70  93 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011958
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. WESTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY ON THE
WESTER PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN
SOUTHERN  WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, HOWEVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE  CWA WAS FAIRLY UNIFORM
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISING THOUGH MID TO UPPER 80S
AND MID 60`S DEW POINTS. THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTED LITTLE DEEP
SHEAR, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINED IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN KS
BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON  AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, PROVIDING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-
70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
AS IT`S NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  93  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  92  70  93 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011958
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. WESTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY ON THE
WESTER PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN
SOUTHERN  WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, HOWEVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE  CWA WAS FAIRLY UNIFORM
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISING THOUGH MID TO UPPER 80S
AND MID 60`S DEW POINTS. THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTED LITTLE DEEP
SHEAR, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINED IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN KS
BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON  AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, PROVIDING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-
70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
AS IT`S NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  93  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  92  70  93 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011958
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. WESTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY ON THE
WESTER PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN
SOUTHERN  WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, HOWEVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE  CWA WAS FAIRLY UNIFORM
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISING THOUGH MID TO UPPER 80S
AND MID 60`S DEW POINTS. THE UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTED LITTLE DEEP
SHEAR, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINED IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN KS
BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON  AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE BETTER
MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, PROVIDING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-
70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION
AS IT`S NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  93  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  92  70  93 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WNDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  91  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  94  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WNDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  91  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  94  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WNDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  91  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  94  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO GROUND FOG, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING MAY BE SOMETHING TO EVALUATE AS PLAUSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER LOOKS CERTAINLY TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN EVENT TO FOREACST AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN
THAT, SOUTHERLY WNDS MAY ONLY BE GUSTY BRIEFLY AND BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  91  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  89  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  94  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

2-4 SM VIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
VIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z AS FOG ERODES. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
REST OF TAF PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

2-4 SM VIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
VIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z AS FOG ERODES. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
REST OF TAF PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

2-4 SM VIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
VIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z AS FOG ERODES. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
REST OF TAF PD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  71  92  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  68 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  71  92  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  68 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  71  92  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  68 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  71  92  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST
IN THE HAYS AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MCS. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA. WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  66  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  67  91  67 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  85  68  92  68 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  92  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  71  92  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010533
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  92  71  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010533
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  92  71  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010428
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  67  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  85  67  92 /  30  30  20  10
LBL  68  83  68  92 /  30  30  20  10
HYS  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010428
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  67  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  85  67  92 /  30  30  20  10
LBL  68  83  68  92 /  30  30  20  10
HYS  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 312305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE 850MB
TO 750 MB LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
4000FT TO 8000FT CEILINGS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 09Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  67  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  85  67  92 /  30  40  20  10
LBL  68  83  68  92 /  20  30  20  10
HYS  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 312305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE 850MB
TO 750 MB LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
4000FT TO 8000FT CEILINGS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 09Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  67  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  85  67  92 /  30  40  20  10
LBL  68  83  68  92 /  20  30  20  10
HYS  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 312039
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION
OF WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS, SO WE WILL
NOT BE FORECASTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT GCK AND DDC AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  67  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  85  67  92 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  68  83  68  92 /  20  30  20  10
HYS  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 312039
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION
OF WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS, SO WE WILL
NOT BE FORECASTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT GCK AND DDC AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  67  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  85  67  92 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  68  83  68  92 /  20  30  20  10
HYS  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 312039
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION
OF WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS, SO WE WILL
NOT BE FORECASTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT GCK AND DDC AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  67  87  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  85  67  92 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  68  83  68  92 /  20  30  20  10
HYS  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION
OF WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS, SO WE WILL
NOT BE FORECASTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT GCK AND DDC AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  68  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  67  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  78  66  86  64 /  80  40  10  10
LBL  81  68  85  65 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  94  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  85  71  84  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION
OF WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS, SO WE WILL
NOT BE FORECASTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT GCK AND DDC AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  68  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  67  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  78  66  86  64 /  80  40  10  10
LBL  81  68  85  65 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  94  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  85  71  84  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311112
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY BY 14-15Z WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  65  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  86  64 /  50  20  10  10
LBL  87  66  85  65 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  91  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  84  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311112
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY BY 14-15Z WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  65  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  86  64 /  50  20  10  10
LBL  87  66  85  65 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  91  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  84  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311112
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY BY 14-15Z WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  65  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  86  64 /  50  20  10  10
LBL  87  66  85  65 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  91  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  84  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311112
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY BY 14-15Z WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  65  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  86  64 /  50  20  10  10
LBL  87  66  85  65 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  91  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  84  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED LONG...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  65  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  86  64 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  87  66  85  65 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  91  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  84  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED LONG...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  65  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  86  64 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  87  66  85  65 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  91  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  84  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  85  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65  86  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  63  86  64  89 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  66  85  65  90 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  67  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  84  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  85  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65  86  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  63  86  64  89 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  66  85  65  90 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  67  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  84  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  85  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65  86  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  63  86  64  89 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  66  85  65  90 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  67  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  84  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  85  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65  86  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  63  86  64  89 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  66  85  65  90 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  67  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  84  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED, WITH WEAK, MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ANY SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE 101ST MERIDIAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PLUME FROM THE TROPICS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AS WELL AS RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THESE
COULD VENTURE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 80S ON FRIDAY (PERHAPS 90 ALONG INTERSTATE 70).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  86  63  86 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  67  87  66  85 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  66  91  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  88  69  84 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED, WITH WEAK, MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ANY SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE 101ST MERIDIAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PLUME FROM THE TROPICS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AS WELL AS RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THESE
COULD VENTURE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 80S ON FRIDAY (PERHAPS 90 ALONG INTERSTATE 70).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  86  63  86 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  67  87  66  85 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  66  91  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  88  69  84 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN





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