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000
FXUS63 KDDC 231127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR conditions will be observed across the HYS terminal over the
next couple of hours with low clouds AOA010. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions across the terminals throughout the day. Winds will be
shifting from the northeast this morning to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  30  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 231127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR conditions will be observed across the HYS terminal over the
next couple of hours with low clouds AOA010. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions across the terminals throughout the day. Winds will be
shifting from the northeast this morning to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  30  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
452 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated to introduce status, patchy fog, and a possible
isolated thunderstorm in north central Kansas this morning ...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 230952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
452 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated to introduce status, patchy fog, and a possible
isolated thunderstorm in north central Kansas this morning ...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 230806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230636
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  20
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230636
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  20
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 230510
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

At 00z Wednesday a 500mb high was centered over central Colorado
with an upper ridge axis extending north across the northern
Rockies. A 500mb low was located off the southwest coast of
British Columbia. A 300mb jet streak was located between the upper
high and upper low and extended from central California into Idaho.
A 700mb high was located over the Central High Plains and
temperatures varied from +12c at Omaha to +14c at Dodge City to
+17c at Denver. A 850mb cold front extended from northeast Wyoming
to southeast Nebraska at 00z Wednesday and the surface cold front
extended from northwest Kansas into northern Missouri.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Executing a bunch of superficial/minor tweaks... 1) will allow the heat
advisory to expire at 8 PM CDT. 2) feeble showers have tried to develop
across Rush county this evening, but are not developing vertically any
more. Looks very weak visually and have removed pops for this evening.
The HRRR suggests more convection, but this model is initializing poorly.
3) updated the HWO and EHWO. 4) running the usual ESTF grids to get
hourly t`s and sky grids in line with reality.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 230047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
747 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update for trends and headlines...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Executing a bunch of superficial/minor tweaks... 1) will allow the heat
advisory to expire at 8 PM CDT. 2) feeble showers have tried to develop
across Rush county this evening, but are not developing vertically any
more. Looks very weak visually and have removed pops for this evening.
The HRRR suggests more convection, but this model is initializing poorly.
3) updated the HWO and EHWO. 4) running the usual ESTF grids to get
hourly t`s and sky grids in line with reality.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Thunderstorms are not expected
to impact the terminals tonight. A backdoor cold front will move across
the terminals tomorrow morning with southerly winds eventually becoming
NNE/NE. Magnitudes generally under 12 kt through TAF pd.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  98  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  70  98  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  94  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
P28  74  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
747 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update for trends and headlines...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Executing a bunch of superficial/minor tweaks... 1) will allow the heat
advisory to expire at 8 PM CDT. 2) feeble showers have tried to develop
across Rush county this evening, but are not developing vertically any
more. Looks very weak visually and have removed pops for this evening.
The HRRR suggests more convection, but this model is initializing poorly.
3) updated the HWO and EHWO. 4) running the usual ESTF grids to get
hourly t`s and sky grids in line with reality.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Thunderstorms are not expected
to impact the terminals tonight. A backdoor cold front will move across
the terminals tomorrow morning with southerly winds eventually becoming
NNE/NE. Magnitudes generally under 12 kt through TAF pd.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  98  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  70  98  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  94  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
P28  74  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden








000
FXUS63 KDDC 222300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Thunderstorms are not expected
to impact the terminals tonight. A backdoor cold front will move across
the terminals tomorrow morning with southerly winds eventually becoming
NNE/NE. Magnitudes generally under 12 kt through TAF pd.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  98  70 100 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  98  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  94  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden








000
FXUS63 KDDC 222300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Thunderstorms are not expected
to impact the terminals tonight. A backdoor cold front will move across
the terminals tomorrow morning with southerly winds eventually becoming
NNE/NE. Magnitudes generally under 12 kt through TAF pd.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  98  70 100 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  98  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  94  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden







000
FXUS63 KDDC 222054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Upper level ridging will build back into the high plains region for
Thursday and into the weekend. With renewed surface troughing over
western Kansas, high temperatures ought to warm back to the high
90s, with possibly some readings over 100F. Little in the way of
thunderstorm activity is expected, although isolated thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, particularly in far western Kansas with
elevated heating. The next cold front is expected to pass through
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level system over the
northwestern United States passes over the upper level ridge into
the Great Lakes. High temperatures ought to drop at least several
degrees by Sunday to the lower and mid 90s, and probably to around
90F by Monday and Tuesday. There will be small chances for
thunderstorms as the front passes and even behind the front into
Monday. A large upper level trough will persist over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the remainder of next
week, resulting in a continued break from the hot temperatures.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms given the lack of
mid level capping; but it appears as though the upper level
pattern may be too amplified for sufficient lee troughing and
destabilization in the presence of the northwesterly mid to upper
level flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions will rule this TAF forecast. Only a few high cirrus
clouds will pass overhead today. Surface winds will be light and
generally from the south to southeast, and may be variable at
times. Skies will clear out tonight, with light surface winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  98  70 100 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  98  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  94  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221737
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions will rule this TAF forecast. Only a few high cirrus
clouds will pass overhead today. Surface winds will be light and
generally from the south to southeast, and may be variable at
times. Skies will clear out tonight, with light surface winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  98  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  98  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
P28 101  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 221737
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days.  A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado.  The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT.  This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border.  We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight.  The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards.  The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F.  I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly.  The convective temp from  the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F.   I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.

There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies.  Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.

The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday.  This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA.  Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border.  Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions will rule this TAF forecast. Only a few high cirrus
clouds will pass overhead today. Surface winds will be light and
generally from the south to southeast, and may be variable at
times. Skies will clear out tonight, with light surface winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  98  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  98  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
P28 101  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated for the Aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions will rule this TAF forecast. Only a few high cirrus
clouds will pass overhead today. Surface winds will be light and
generally from the south to southeast, and may be variable at
times. Skies will clear out tonight, with light surface winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  98  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  98  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
P28 101  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south at 5 to 10 knots shifting to the
south southwest and increasing to around 15 knots by this
afternoon with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
P28 101  74  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 220807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
P28 101  74  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 220807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
P28 101  74  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 220648
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecast. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cool down is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  97  70 /  10  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  93  70 /  20  20  10  10
P28 101  74  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 220648
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecast. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cool down is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  97  70 /  10  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  93  70 /  20  20  10  10
P28 101  74  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 220509
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

At 00z Tuesday a 500mb high was located over northeast New Mexico
with an upper level ridge axis extending northeast of this high
into Illinois. One upper level trough was evident at over
northwest Kansas with another, more subtle, upper wave appearing
over Nevada near the nose/left exit region of a 250mb jet.
Anticyclonic flow was present at the 700mb level with temperatures
of +15c at Dodge City and +16c at Amarillo and North Platte at 00z
Tuesday. A area of higher 850mb temperatures, +28c to +31c, were
located from northwest Colorado into eastern South Dakota. This
was also located just ahead of a cold front which extended from
eastern Wyoming to eastern North Dakota. 850mb temperature at
Dodge City at 00z Tuesday was +27c.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  95  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  72  96  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  97  70 101 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  93  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  97  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 220509
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

At 00z Tuesday a 500mb high was located over northeast New Mexico
with an upper level ridge axis extending northeast of this high
into Illinois. One upper level trough was evident at over
northwest Kansas with another, more subtle, upper wave appearing
over Nevada near the nose/left exit region of a 250mb jet.
Anticyclonic flow was present at the 700mb level with temperatures
of +15c at Dodge City and +16c at Amarillo and North Platte at 00z
Tuesday. A area of higher 850mb temperatures, +28c to +31c, were
located from northwest Colorado into eastern South Dakota. This
was also located just ahead of a cold front which extended from
eastern Wyoming to eastern North Dakota. 850mb temperature at
Dodge City at 00z Tuesday was +27c.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  95  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  72  96  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  97  70 101 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  97  70 101 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  93  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  97  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 212343
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
643 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

scattered thunderstorms across far west-central and southwest
Kansas are expected to slowly weaken and dissipate by late
evening, but likely impacting GCK terminal sometime in the 0100 to
0230 UTC time frame before totally dissolving. It appears unlikely
that convection will make it to the DDC terminal. Overnight, winds
will stay out of the south at 12 to 16 knots with VFR sky
conditions prevailing. South winds will continue Tuesday ahead of
a slow moving boundary across northern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  71 100  72  96 /  30  10  20  10
EHA  70  98  69  97 /  20  10  20  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KDDC 212343
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
643 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

scattered thunderstorms across far west-central and southwest
Kansas are expected to slowly weaken and dissipate by late
evening, but likely impacting GCK terminal sometime in the 0100 to
0230 UTC time frame before totally dissolving. It appears unlikely
that convection will make it to the DDC terminal. Overnight, winds
will stay out of the south at 12 to 16 knots with VFR sky
conditions prevailing. South winds will continue Tuesday ahead of
a slow moving boundary across northern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  71 100  72  96 /  30  10  20  10
EHA  70  98  69  97 /  20  10  20  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 211853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitute a cig this evening and overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  20  10
EHA  71  98  69  97 /  20  10  20  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  20  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 211853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecasted. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cooldown is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitute a cig this evening and overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  20  10
EHA  71  98  69  97 /  20  10  20  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  20  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211822
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitute a cig this evening and overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  71  98  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  20  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211822
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitute a cig this evening and overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  71  98  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  20  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 211658
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitude a cig this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71  98  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 100  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 102  73 102  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 101  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211658
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitude a cig this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71  98  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 100  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 102  73 102  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 101  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 211105
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions can be expected today given what moisture that
will be preceding an weak upper level disturbance late today will
be at or above the 700mb level. South/southwesterly winds will
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range by late morning and then
continue through the remainder of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71  98  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 100  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 100  73 102  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 101  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211105
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions can be expected today given what moisture that
will be preceding an weak upper level disturbance late today will
be at or above the 700mb level. South/southwesterly winds will
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range by late morning and then
continue through the remainder of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71  98  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 100  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 100  73 102  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 101  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 210813
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight into the afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
southwest at 8-10 knots overnight increasing to 15-20 knots by
late afternoon with higher gusts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71 100  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 101  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 100  73 101  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 210744
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
244 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight into the afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
southwest at 8-10 knots overnight increasing to 15-20 knots by
late afternoon with higher gusts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71 100  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 101  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 100  73 101  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 210744
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
244 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight into the afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
southwest at 8-10 knots overnight increasing to 15-20 knots by
late afternoon with higher gusts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  72 100  72 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  99  71 100  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  72 101  71 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 100  73 101  73 /  10  20  10  20
P28  98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 210525
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A shortwave trough over the Intermountain West will progress east-
northeastward along the northern periphery of an upper level ridge
through Monday. Meanwhile, an associated weak surface low will
develop along the northern high plains and then pull eastward away
from the Rockies by Monday afternoon. In its wake, a weak cold
front is expected to progress into extreme northwestern Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are not expected this evening
despite the 4000 j/kg cape ahead of a weak dryline due to a strong
capping inversion. With the south winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight,
temperatures will stay mild in the lower to mid 70s in central
Kansas, with upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday evening in far western
Kansas in vicinity of a weak surface trough. Temperatures will
become fairly hot across western Kansas, leading to low convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Any storms that develop will be high
based with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg, with wind the primary
threat. Opted to continue going a few degrees below the NAM 2m
temperatures for highs Monday given all the rain over the past
several weeks and ample vegetation. The NAM performs best in dry
regimes and seems to have a warm bias after a wet period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight into the afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
southwest at 8-10 knots overnight increasing to 15-20 knots by
late afternoon with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 100  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  71 100  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  71 101  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  72 102  73  93 /  20  20  20   0
P28  74 100  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 210525
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A shortwave trough over the Intermountain West will progress east-
northeastward along the northern periphery of an upper level ridge
through Monday. Meanwhile, an associated weak surface low will
develop along the northern high plains and then pull eastward away
from the Rockies by Monday afternoon. In its wake, a weak cold
front is expected to progress into extreme northwestern Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are not expected this evening
despite the 4000 j/kg cape ahead of a weak dryline due to a strong
capping inversion. With the south winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight,
temperatures will stay mild in the lower to mid 70s in central
Kansas, with upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday evening in far western
Kansas in vicinity of a weak surface trough. Temperatures will
become fairly hot across western Kansas, leading to low convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Any storms that develop will be high
based with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg, with wind the primary
threat. Opted to continue going a few degrees below the NAM 2m
temperatures for highs Monday given all the rain over the past
several weeks and ample vegetation. The NAM performs best in dry
regimes and seems to have a warm bias after a wet period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight into the afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
southwest at 8-10 knots overnight increasing to 15-20 knots by
late afternoon with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 100  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  71 100  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  71 101  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  72 102  73  93 /  20  20  20   0
P28  74 100  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 202355
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A shortwave trough over the intermountain west will progress
east-northeastward along the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge through Monday. Meanwhile, an associated weak surface low will
develop along the northern high plains and then pull eastward away
from the Rockies by Monday afternoon. In its wake, a weak cold
front is expected to progress into extreme northwestern Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are not expected this evening
despite the 4000 j/kg cape ahead of a weak dryline due to a strong
capping inversion. With the south winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight,
temperatures will stay mild in the lower to mid 70s in central
Kansas, with upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday evening in far western
Kansas in vicinity of a weak surface trough. Temperatures will
become fairly hot across western Kansas, leading to low convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Any storms that develop will be high
based with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg, with wind the primary
threat. Opted to continue going a few degrees below the NAM 2m
temperatures for highs Monday given all the rain over the past
several weeks and ample vegetation. The NAM performs best in dry
regimes and seems to have a warm bias after a wet period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR category conditions are expected through this TAF period.
Southerly flow will prevail at the surface. Gusts will cease
around 01-02 UTC and surface winds will fall below 12 knots by
around midnight. Diurnal mixing will resume Monday morning after
15 UTC as winds become moderately gusty in the 20 to 26 knot
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 202355
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A shortwave trough over the intermountain west will progress
east-northeastward along the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge through Monday. Meanwhile, an associated weak surface low will
develop along the northern high plains and then pull eastward away
from the Rockies by Monday afternoon. In its wake, a weak cold
front is expected to progress into extreme northwestern Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are not expected this evening
despite the 4000 j/kg cape ahead of a weak dryline due to a strong
capping inversion. With the south winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight,
temperatures will stay mild in the lower to mid 70s in central
Kansas, with upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday evening in far western
Kansas in vicinity of a weak surface trough. Temperatures will
become fairly hot across western Kansas, leading to low convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Any storms that develop will be high
based with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg, with wind the primary
threat. Opted to continue going a few degrees below the NAM 2m
temperatures for highs Monday given all the rain over the past
several weeks and ample vegetation. The NAM performs best in dry
regimes and seems to have a warm bias after a wet period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR category conditions are expected through this TAF period.
Southerly flow will prevail at the surface. Gusts will cease
around 01-02 UTC and surface winds will fall below 12 knots by
around midnight. Diurnal mixing will resume Monday morning after
15 UTC as winds become moderately gusty in the 20 to 26 knot
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 202053
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A shortwave trough over the intermountain west will progress
east-northeastward along the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge through Monday. Meanwhile, an associated weak surface low will
develop along the northern high plains and then pull eastward away
from the Rockies by Monday afternoon. In its wake, a weak cold
front is expected to progress into extreme northwestern Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are not expected this evening
despite the 4000 j/kg cape ahead of a weak dryline due to a strong
capping inversion. With the south winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight,
temperatures will stay mild in the lower to mid 70s in central
Kansas, with upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday evening in far western
Kansas in vicinity of a weak surface trough. Temperatures will
become fairly hot across western Kansas, leading to low convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Any storms that develop will be high
based with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg, with wind the primary
threat. Opted to continue going a few degrees below the NAM 2m
temperatures for highs Monday given all the rain over the past
several weeks and ample vegetation. The NAM performs best in dry
regimes and seems to have a warm bias after a wet period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 202053
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A shortwave trough over the intermountain west will progress
east-northeastward along the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge through Monday. Meanwhile, an associated weak surface low will
develop along the northern high plains and then pull eastward away
from the Rockies by Monday afternoon. In its wake, a weak cold
front is expected to progress into extreme northwestern Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are not expected this evening
despite the 4000 j/kg cape ahead of a weak dryline due to a strong
capping inversion. With the south winds at 10 to 15 kts tonight,
temperatures will stay mild in the lower to mid 70s in central
Kansas, with upper 60s to near 70 along the Colorado border. There
is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday evening in far western
Kansas in vicinity of a weak surface trough. Temperatures will
become fairly hot across western Kansas, leading to low convective
inhibition by late afternoon. Any storms that develop will be high
based with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg, with wind the primary
threat. Opted to continue going a few degrees below the NAM 2m
temperatures for highs Monday given all the rain over the past
several weeks and ample vegetation. The NAM performs best in dry
regimes and seems to have a warm bias after a wet period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 202000 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The weather pattern will be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday
with an intensifying mid to upper level ridge across the Southern
Rockies and a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado at the
surface. A few differences will be a slight shift in the winds to
the south southwest and slightly warmer as mid level temperatures
increase. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon with
highs ranging form the lower 90s across south central Kansas to
around 100 degrees across west central Kansas. With dewpoints in the
60s across central and south central Kansas, it will feel very warm
with heat indices around 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon, but will have a harder time to initiate due to the warmer
mid level temperatures. As of now these storms are not expected to
affect far western Kansas. Skies become partly cloudy overnight with
winds out of the south. Lows overnight are expected to be in the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 202000 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The weather pattern will be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday
with an intensifying mid to upper level ridge across the Southern
Rockies and a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado at the
surface. A few differences will be a slight shift in the winds to
the south southwest and slightly warmer as mid level temperatures
increase. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon with
highs ranging form the lower 90s across south central Kansas to
around 100 degrees across west central Kansas. With dewpoints in the
60s across central and south central Kansas, it will feel very warm
with heat indices around 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon, but will have a harder time to initiate due to the warmer
mid level temperatures. As of now these storms are not expected to
affect far western Kansas. Skies become partly cloudy overnight with
winds out of the south. Lows overnight are expected to be in the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 201759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The weather pattern will be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday
with an intensifying mid to upper level ridge across the Southern
Rockies and a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado at the
surface. A few differences will be a slight shift in the winds to
the south southwest and slightly warmer as mid level temperatures
increase. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon with
highs ranging form the lower 90s across south central Kansas to
around 100 degrees across west central Kansas. With dewpoints in the
60s across central and south central Kansas, it will feel very warm
with heat indices around 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon, but will have a harder time to initiate due to the warmer
mid level temperatures. As of now these storms are not expected to
affect far western Kansas. Skies become partly cloudy overnight with
winds out of the south. Lows overnight are expected to be in the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Upper level high will strengthen as it slowly moves north across New
Mexico into southern Colorado through mid week. Models this morning to
various degrees continue to move weak several upper level
disturbances through this upper high early in the week with and
the GFS and ECMWF still suggested a more significant upper level
disturbance will move across the central Plains on Monday night.
Given that the models continue to agree on timing and track of
this Monday night upper wave will keep a mention of thunderstorms
going Monday night as the upper wave passes. As for precipitation
chances after Monday night will stay close to persistence for
thunderstorm chances from late Tuesday through Thursday given the
uncertainty on timing and track of the other subtle upper level
features crossing the Central Plains along with the warm mid level
temperatures. Will need to monitor the potential for improving
chances for thunderstorms near and north of the Interstate 70
corridor given a weak cold front is forecast to drop south into
portions of northern Kansas.

As the high strengthens mid week over the central and southern
Rockies an upper low will be deepening off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest mid week. As this upper low will move east
towards the Northern Rockies late week the upper level ridge axis which
will be located north of the Colorado upper high will weaken and
shift east. The upper high is expected to begin to move southwest
across the four corners region. As the upper ridge axis shifts
east and a westerly flow improves across the Rockies mid to late
week the 700mb temperatures are forecast by both the ECMWF and GFS
to warm from +14c to +16c at 00z Wednesday to +16c to near +18c at
00z Saturday. 850mb temperatures do indicated some cooling mid
week with the cold front but warm from the mid to upper 20s at 00z
Thursday to the low to mid 30s by 00z Saturday. Based on these
temperatures expected in the 850mb to 700mb layer will stay close
to the latest guidance for highs. Highs around 100 degrees still
look reasonable Monday and Tuesday followed by a brief cool down
mid week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  73  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
GCK 100  73 102  71 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  99  72  99  70 /  10  10  20  20
LBL 100  73 101  71 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  96  74 102  72 /  10  10  10  20
P28  93  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 201759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The weather pattern will be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday
with an intensifying mid to upper level ridge across the Southern
Rockies and a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado at the
surface. A few differences will be a slight shift in the winds to
the south southwest and slightly warmer as mid level temperatures
increase. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon with
highs ranging form the lower 90s across south central Kansas to
around 100 degrees across west central Kansas. With dewpoints in the
60s across central and south central Kansas, it will feel very warm
with heat indices around 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon, but will have a harder time to initiate due to the warmer
mid level temperatures. As of now these storms are not expected to
affect far western Kansas. Skies become partly cloudy overnight with
winds out of the south. Lows overnight are expected to be in the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Upper level high will strengthen as it slowly moves north across New
Mexico into southern Colorado through mid week. Models this morning to
various degrees continue to move weak several upper level
disturbances through this upper high early in the week with and
the GFS and ECMWF still suggested a more significant upper level
disturbance will move across the central Plains on Monday night.
Given that the models continue to agree on timing and track of
this Monday night upper wave will keep a mention of thunderstorms
going Monday night as the upper wave passes. As for precipitation
chances after Monday night will stay close to persistence for
thunderstorm chances from late Tuesday through Thursday given the
uncertainty on timing and track of the other subtle upper level
features crossing the Central Plains along with the warm mid level
temperatures. Will need to monitor the potential for improving
chances for thunderstorms near and north of the Interstate 70
corridor given a weak cold front is forecast to drop south into
portions of northern Kansas.

As the high strengthens mid week over the central and southern
Rockies an upper low will be deepening off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest mid week. As this upper low will move east
towards the Northern Rockies late week the upper level ridge axis which
will be located north of the Colorado upper high will weaken and
shift east. The upper high is expected to begin to move southwest
across the four corners region. As the upper ridge axis shifts
east and a westerly flow improves across the Rockies mid to late
week the 700mb temperatures are forecast by both the ECMWF and GFS
to warm from +14c to +16c at 00z Wednesday to +16c to near +18c at
00z Saturday. 850mb temperatures do indicated some cooling mid
week with the cold front but warm from the mid to upper 20s at 00z
Thursday to the low to mid 30s by 00z Saturday. Based on these
temperatures expected in the 850mb to 700mb layer will stay close
to the latest guidance for highs. Highs around 100 degrees still
look reasonable Monday and Tuesday followed by a brief cool down
mid week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  73  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
GCK 100  73 102  71 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  99  72  99  70 /  10  10  20  20
LBL 100  73 101  71 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  96  74 102  72 /  10  10  10  20
P28  93  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch







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