Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KDDC 172320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED,
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM
HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY. NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPSLOPE LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR FOG WILL BE
NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG IN THE GRIDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT INCOMING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, FIRST
ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DDC TERMINAL
A FEW HOURS LATER. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF OF A MILE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GCK TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHELRY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  67  86 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  30
EHA  60  86  65  79 /  10   0  10  60
LBL  63  90  66  83 /  10   0   0  30
HYS  65  83  67  86 /  20  20   0  10
P28  68  91  69  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED,
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM
HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY. NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPSLOPE LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR FOG WILL BE
NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG IN THE GRIDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT INCOMING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, FIRST
ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DDC TERMINAL
A FEW HOURS LATER. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF OF A MILE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GCK TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHELRY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  67  86 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  30
EHA  60  86  65  79 /  10   0  10  60
LBL  63  90  66  83 /  10   0   0  30
HYS  65  83  67  86 /  20  20   0  10
P28  68  91  69  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE HIGH
CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS AFTERNOON
WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED, SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY.
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSLOPE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
FOG WILL BE NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM
FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  50
EHA  60  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  63  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  50
HYS  65  83  66  88 /  20  20   0  30
P28  68  91  68  87 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE HIGH
CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS AFTERNOON
WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED, SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY.
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSLOPE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
FOG WILL BE NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM
FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  50
EHA  60  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  63  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  50
HYS  65  83  66  88 /  20  20   0  30
P28  68  91  68  87 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171757
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  64  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  93  61  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  63  90  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  85  65  83  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  68  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 171757
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  64  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  93  61  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  63  90  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  85  65  83  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  68  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS MAY THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KHYS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ATTENDANT TO THE
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS MAY THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KHYS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ATTENDANT TO THE
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170813
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170813
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170640
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  67 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  65 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  93  64  92  66 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  67 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  69 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170640
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  67 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  65 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  93  64  92  66 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  67 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  69 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170526
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  90  67  87 /  10   0   0  20
GCK  62  91  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
EHA  62  90  65  86 /  10   0   0  30
LBL  64  92  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
HYS  63  89  67  87 /  20   0   0  10
P28  63  91  69  88 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170526
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  90  67  87 /  10   0   0  20
GCK  62  91  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
EHA  62  90  65  86 /  10   0   0  30
LBL  64  92  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
HYS  63  89  67  87 /  20   0   0  10
P28  63  91  69  88 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 162327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HYS TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /   0  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HYS TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /   0  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 162029
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  63  90 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /  10  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162029
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  63  90 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /  10  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  83  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  84  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  84  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  75  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  80  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  83  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  84  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  84  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  75  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  80  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MORNING AS A STRATUS DECK MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE STRATUS DECK LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15KT THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN
EASTERN KANSAS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT AS
A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MORNING AS A STRATUS DECK MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE STRATUS DECK LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15KT THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN
EASTERN KANSAS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT AS
A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 160830
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
AT KGCK AND KDDC UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AT KHYS IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BY 09-12Z. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 160830
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
AT KGCK AND KDDC UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AT KHYS IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BY 09-12Z. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 160620
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
AT KGCK AND KDDC UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AT KHYS IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BY 09-12Z. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10  10  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 160620
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
AT KGCK AND KDDC UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AT KHYS IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BY 09-12Z. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10  10  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 152357 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS AND
SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 AND 54 CORRIDOR. AS
OF 2000 UTC, DDC WAS STILL BELOW 1000 FEET OVERCAST, BUT THE DRIZZLE
HAD CEASED. A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPING...RESULTING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE DISSOLVING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST POLEWARD OF THE FRONT.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG I-70 WHERE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 50
FOR A LOW. FOR THE DAY TUESDAY, THE STRATUS LAYER WILL HANG TOUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY WAKEENEY TO NESS CITY TO LARNED TO STAFFORD, THE LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST TO BROKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  MID 80S ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE DIRECT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AOB 2000 FEET AGL CONTINUES TO
WARM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
AT KGCK AND KDDC UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AT KHYS IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BY 09-12Z. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  78  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  57  82  61  89 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  58  86  62  89 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  60  83  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  51  73  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
P28  61  79  66  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 152357 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS AND
SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 AND 54 CORRIDOR. AS
OF 2000 UTC, DDC WAS STILL BELOW 1000 FEET OVERCAST, BUT THE DRIZZLE
HAD CEASED. A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPING...RESULTING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE DISSOLVING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST POLEWARD OF THE FRONT.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG I-70 WHERE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 50
FOR A LOW. FOR THE DAY TUESDAY, THE STRATUS LAYER WILL HANG TOUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY WAKEENEY TO NESS CITY TO LARNED TO STAFFORD, THE LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST TO BROKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  MID 80S ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE DIRECT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AOB 2000 FEET AGL CONTINUES TO
WARM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
AT KGCK AND KDDC UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AT KHYS IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BY 09-12Z. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  78  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  57  82  61  89 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  58  86  62  89 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  60  83  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  51  73  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
P28  61  79  66  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 152046
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS AND
SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 AND 54 CORRIDOR. AS
OF 2000 UTC, DDC WAS STILL BELOW 1000 FEET OVERCAST, BUT THE DRIZZLE
HAD CEASED. A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPING...RESULTING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE DISSOLVING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST POLEWARD OF THE FRONT.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG I-70 WHERE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 50
FOR A LOW. FOR THE DAY TUESDAY, THE STRATUS LAYER WILL HANG TOUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY WAKEENEY TO NESS CITY TO LARNED TO STAFFORD, THE LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST TO BROKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  MID 80S ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE DIRECT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AOB 2000 FEET AGL CONTINUES TO
WARM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT DDC AND GCK ALONG A NARROW BAND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT GCK AND DDC THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH CEILING
RISING TO AROUND 600-900 FEET LATE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, THE
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 FEET AT GCK AND DDC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW. LIFR WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AT DDC AND GCK AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY
RECIRCULATING THE LOW LEVEL COOL/MOIST POOL. LIFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  78  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  54  82  61  89 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  55  86  62  89 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  57  83  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  50  73  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
P28  57  79  66  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 152046
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH DURING THE DAY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS AND
SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 AND 54 CORRIDOR. AS
OF 2000 UTC, DDC WAS STILL BELOW 1000 FEET OVERCAST, BUT THE DRIZZLE
HAD CEASED. A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPING...RESULTING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE DISSOLVING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST POLEWARD OF THE FRONT.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG I-70 WHERE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 50
FOR A LOW. FOR THE DAY TUESDAY, THE STRATUS LAYER WILL HANG TOUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY WAKEENEY TO NESS CITY TO LARNED TO STAFFORD, THE LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST TO BROKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  MID 80S ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE DIRECT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AOB 2000 FEET AGL CONTINUES TO
WARM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT DDC AND GCK ALONG A NARROW BAND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT GCK AND DDC THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH CEILING
RISING TO AROUND 600-900 FEET LATE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, THE
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 FEET AT GCK AND DDC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW. LIFR WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AT DDC AND GCK AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY
RECIRCULATING THE LOW LEVEL COOL/MOIST POOL. LIFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  78  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  54  82  61  89 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  55  86  62  89 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  57  83  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  50  73  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
P28  57  79  66  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 151824
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
124 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A STATIONARY FRONT FORMS
IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE. THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN ABOUT THE SAME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY, SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, FROM
WHAT WILL BE THEN FORMER HURRICANE ODILE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA, WILL GET SWEPT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. POPS WILL START
OUT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WEST FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACES 26 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 44 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE FORCING WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PLOWING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION (THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO ELKHART, IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM HAYS TO
MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, AND USED THE QPF_FM_POP TO POPULATE THE QPF FIELDS.
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN WERE PRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST; THE COOLEST DAY
WILL BE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT DDC AND GCK ALONG A NARROW BAND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT GCK AND DDC THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH CEILING
RISING TO AROUND 600-900 FEET LATE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, THE
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 FEET AT GCK AND DDC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW. LIFR WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AT DDC AND GCK AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY
RECIRCULATING THE LOW LEVEL COOL/MOIST POOL. LIFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  54  81  62  87 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  55  83  62  88 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  57  81  63  88 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  50  74  61  83 /  10  10  20  20
P28  57  80  64  85 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 151824
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
124 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A STATIONARY FRONT FORMS
IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE. THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN ABOUT THE SAME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY, SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, FROM
WHAT WILL BE THEN FORMER HURRICANE ODILE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA, WILL GET SWEPT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. POPS WILL START
OUT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WEST FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACES 26 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 44 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE FORCING WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PLOWING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION (THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO ELKHART, IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM HAYS TO
MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, AND USED THE QPF_FM_POP TO POPULATE THE QPF FIELDS.
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN WERE PRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST; THE COOLEST DAY
WILL BE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT DDC AND GCK ALONG A NARROW BAND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT GCK AND DDC THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH CEILING
RISING TO AROUND 600-900 FEET LATE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, THE
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 FEET AT GCK AND DDC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW. LIFR WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AT DDC AND GCK AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY
RECIRCULATING THE LOW LEVEL COOL/MOIST POOL. LIFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  54  81  62  87 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  55  83  62  88 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  57  81  63  88 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  50  74  61  83 /  10  10  20  20
P28  57  80  64  85 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 151142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A STATIONARY FRONT FORMS
IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE. THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN ABOUT THE SAME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY, SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, FROM
WHAT WILL BE THEN FORMER HURRICANE ODILE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA, WILL GET SWEPT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. POPS WILL START
OUT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WEST FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACES 26 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 44 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE FORCING WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PLOWING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION (THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO ELKHART, IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM HAYS TO
MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, AND USED THE QPF_FM_POP TO POPULATE THE QPF FIELDS.
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN WERE PRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST; THE COOLEST DAY
WILL BE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOW CIGS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTH WITH THIS
FRONT. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN KHYS THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 15Z,
AND LOW MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY IN KDDC AND KGCK. WINDS WILL
BASICALLY START OUT SOUTH AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT SHIFT NORTH AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 15G25KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  55  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  69  54  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  70  55  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  75  57  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  70  50  74  61 /  20  10  10  20
P28  83  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 151142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A STATIONARY FRONT FORMS
IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE. THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN ABOUT THE SAME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY, SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, FROM
WHAT WILL BE THEN FORMER HURRICANE ODILE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA, WILL GET SWEPT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. POPS WILL START
OUT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WEST FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACES 26 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 44 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE FORCING WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PLOWING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION (THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO ELKHART, IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM HAYS TO
MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, AND USED THE QPF_FM_POP TO POPULATE THE QPF FIELDS.
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN WERE PRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST; THE COOLEST DAY
WILL BE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOW CIGS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTH WITH THIS
FRONT. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN KHYS THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 15Z,
AND LOW MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY IN KDDC AND KGCK. WINDS WILL
BASICALLY START OUT SOUTH AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT SHIFT NORTH AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 15G25KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  55  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  69  54  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  70  55  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  75  57  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  70  50  74  61 /  20  10  10  20
P28  83  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 150754
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
254 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A STATIONARY FRONT FORMS
IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE. THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN ABOUT THE SAME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY, SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, FROM
WHAT WILL BE THEN FORMER HURRICANE ODILE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA, WILL GET SWEPT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. POPS WILL START
OUT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WEST FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACES 26 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 44 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE FORCING WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PLOWING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION (THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO ELKHART, IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM HAYS TO
MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, AND USED THE QPF_FM_POP TO POPULATE THE QPF FIELDS.
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN WERE PRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST; THE COOLEST DAY
WILL BE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY 15 TO 25KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  55  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  68  54  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  69  55  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  75  57  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  68  50  74  61 /  20  10  10  20
P28  83  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 150754
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
254 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A STATIONARY FRONT FORMS
IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE. THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN ABOUT THE SAME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY, SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, FROM
WHAT WILL BE THEN FORMER HURRICANE ODILE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA, WILL GET SWEPT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. POPS WILL START
OUT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WEST FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACES 26 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 44 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE FORCING WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PLOWING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION (THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO ELKHART, IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM HAYS TO
MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, AND USED THE QPF_FM_POP TO POPULATE THE QPF FIELDS.
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN WERE PRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST; THE COOLEST DAY
WILL BE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY 15 TO 25KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  55  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  68  54  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  69  55  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  75  57  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  68  50  74  61 /  20  10  10  20
P28  83  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 150710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ON MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THAT AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR FOR THIS BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO COME OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING SOMETHING OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DRAGGING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR ON THIS AND LIKELY WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY 15 TO 25KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  55  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  68  54  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  69  55  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  75  57  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  68  50  74  61 /  20  10  10  20
P28  83  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 150710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ON MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THAT AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR FOR THIS BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO COME OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING SOMETHING OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DRAGGING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR ON THIS AND LIKELY WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY 15 TO 25KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  55  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  68  54  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  69  55  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  75  57  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  68  50  74  61 /  20  10  10  20
P28  83  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 150515
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME, FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND PROFILES
THEMSELVES ARE NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THINK THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING QPF BECAUSE THEY ARE PICKING UP ON THE STRATUS BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WITH THERE IS 0.01" WHERE THE MODEL IS
GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FORECAST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF MORE AREAS JUST
SAW CLOUDS THAN ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ON MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THAT AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR FOR THIS BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO COME OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING SOMETHING OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DRAGGING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR ON THIS AND LIKELY WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY 15 TO 25KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  71  57  80 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  59  66  56  81 /   0  20  10  10
EHA  62  67  58  83 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  62  76  59  81 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  59  67  52  74 /  20  20  10  10
P28  64  84  59  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities