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000
FXUS63 KDDC 181947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON`T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK SETTING UP GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR PRESENT IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF H5
VORT MAXIMA BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HELPING SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
KANSAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING ABOUT A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
TO BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST
MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ASHORE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED MONDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE
HELP OF A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S(F) TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE GENERAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  36  61 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  43  56  34  60 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  41  57  36  61 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  43  58  37  61 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  49  58  34  61 /  70  70   0  10
P28  51  67  38  63 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON`T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK SETTING UP GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR PRESENT IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF H5
VORT MAXIMA BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HELPING SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
KANSAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING ABOUT A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
TO BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST
MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ASHORE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED MONDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE
HELP OF A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S(F) TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE GENERAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  36  61 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  43  56  34  60 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  41  57  36  61 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  43  58  37  61 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  49  58  34  61 /  70  70   0  10
P28  51  67  38  63 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON`T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  36  61 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  43  56  34  60 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  41  57  36  61 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  43  58  37  61 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  49  58  34  61 /  70  70   0  10
P28  51  67  38  63 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON`T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  36  61 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  43  56  34  60 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  41  57  36  61 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  43  58  37  61 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  49  58  34  61 /  70  70   0  10
P28  51  67  38  63 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181125
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z, THEN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 10-15KT. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, MAY FORM
AFTER 19-21Z NEAR DODGE CITY AND HAYS, AND PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH 01-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>045-
062>065-076>080-087>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181125
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z, THEN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 10-15KT. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, MAY FORM
AFTER 19-21Z NEAR DODGE CITY AND HAYS, AND PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH 01-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>045-
062>065-076>080-087>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181125
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z, THEN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 10-15KT. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, MAY FORM
AFTER 19-21Z NEAR DODGE CITY AND HAYS, AND PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH 01-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>045-
062>065-076>080-087>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181125
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z, THEN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 10-15KT. AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, MAY FORM
AFTER 19-21Z NEAR DODGE CITY AND HAYS, AND PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH 01-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>045-
062>065-076>080-087>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180845
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180845
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-20C AND 400MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. STRONG
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS
ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS 2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED FROM SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY
TO LIBERAL BY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  46  64  36 /  60  60  30  10
GCK  72  45  61  34 /  20  30  20  10
EHA  70  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72  46  63  37 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  49  61  34 /  60  70  60  10
P28  74  54  66  38 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 180820
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  46  64  36 /  30  40  30  10
GCK  69  45  61  34 /  10  30  20  10
EHA  68  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  71  46  63  37 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  72  49  61  34 /  50  50  60  10
P28  75  51  66  38 /  50  60  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 180820
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF FROST.

FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST FROM
SYRACUSE TO ELKHART WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO 63
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE I-70 AREA TO AROUND 40
TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S INTO FRIDAY. LOWS WARM INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  46  64  36 /  30  40  30  10
GCK  69  45  61  34 /  10  30  20  10
EHA  68  44  62  36 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  71  46  63  37 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  72  49  61  34 /  50  50  60  10
P28  75  51  66  38 /  50  60  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180601
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
101 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  64  39  60 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  45  61  37  59 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  44  62  39  59 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  46  63  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  49  61  36  60 /  50  60  10  10
P28  51  66  41  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180601
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
101 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  64  39  60 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  45  61  37  59 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  44  62  39  59 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  46  63  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  49  61  36  60 /  50  60  10  10
P28  51  66  41  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 180601
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
101 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  64  39  60 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  45  61  37  59 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  44  62  39  59 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  46  63  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  49  61  36  60 /  50  60  10  10
P28  51  66  41  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180601
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
101 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  64  39  60 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  45  61  37  59 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  44  62  39  59 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  46  63  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  49  61  36  60 /  50  60  10  10
P28  51  66  41  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172335
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
635 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. RAP AND HRR WERE BOTH IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH MVRF CEILINGS DEVELOPING DEVELOPING TOWARDS 06Z,
ESPECIALLY AT DDC. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE DDC
AND GCK AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES. ON GOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF A GCK TO DDC LINE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN SUNSET
AND 6Z SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172335
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
635 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. RAP AND HRR WERE BOTH IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH MVRF CEILINGS DEVELOPING DEVELOPING TOWARDS 06Z,
ESPECIALLY AT DDC. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE DDC
AND GCK AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES. ON GOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF A GCK TO DDC LINE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN SUNSET
AND 6Z SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171940
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SCATTERING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  60
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  50  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 171821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
10-20KT EXCEPT STRONGER IN LOCAL SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  40  50  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  40  30
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  30  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  50
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  40  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 171821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
10-20KT EXCEPT STRONGER IN LOCAL SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  40  50  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  40  30
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  30  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  50
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  40  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 171821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
10-20KT EXCEPT STRONGER IN LOCAL SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  40  50  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  40  30
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  30  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  50
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  40  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
10-20KT EXCEPT STRONGER IN LOCAL SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  72  46  64 /  30  40  50  30
GCK  48  69  45  61 /  40  30  40  30
EHA  42  68  44  62 /  10  20  30  10
LBL  46  71  46  63 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  56  72  49  61 /  70  50  50  50
P28  56  75  51  66 /  80  40  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171118
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
618 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
10-20KT EXCEPT STRONGER IN LOCAL SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND A DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 14% ACROSS MORTON COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE STANTON AND
STEVENS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
THIS MORNING FROM NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PUSH WESTWARD
AND HINDER THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  80  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 171118
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
618 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
10-20KT EXCEPT STRONGER IN LOCAL SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND A DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 14% ACROSS MORTON COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE STANTON AND
STEVENS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
THIS MORNING FROM NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PUSH WESTWARD
AND HINDER THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  80  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND A DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 14% ACROSS MORTON COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE STANTON AND
STEVENS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
THIS MORNING FROM NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PUSH WESTWARD
AND HINDER THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND A DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 14% ACROSS MORTON COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE STANTON AND
STEVENS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
THIS MORNING FROM NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PUSH WESTWARD
AND HINDER THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170559
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  69  45  65 /  60  30  40  30
GCK  48  69  44  62 /  60  30  40  30
EHA  42  66  43  62 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  46  69  45  63 /  40  30  30  20
HYS  56  71  48  62 /  60  50  50  40
P28  56  72  51  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170559
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  69  45  65 /  60  30  40  30
GCK  48  69  44  62 /  60  30  40  30
EHA  42  66  43  62 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  46  69  45  63 /  40  30  30  20
HYS  56  71  48  62 /  60  50  50  40
P28  56  72  51  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170559
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  69  45  65 /  60  30  40  30
GCK  48  69  44  62 /  60  30  40  30
EHA  42  66  43  62 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  46  69  45  63 /  40  30  30  20
HYS  56  71  48  62 /  60  50  50  40
P28  56  72  51  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170559
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE TIME, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT FOR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  69  45  65 /  60  30  40  30
GCK  48  69  44  62 /  60  30  40  30
EHA  42  66  43  62 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  46  69  45  63 /  40  30  30  20
HYS  56  71  48  62 /  60  50  50  40
P28  56  72  51  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 162312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR AS AREAS OF
CONVECTION CROSSES EACH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL INITIALLY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THERE WILL THEN BE A
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. CEILINGS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNINGS AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  71  47  69 /  80  60  60  30
GCK  53  71  43  69 /  80  50  60  30
EHA  47  71  42  66 /  70  30  30  20
LBL  50  73  43  69 /  80  40  40  30
HYS  56  71  50  71 /  70  60  60  50
P28  58  72  55  72 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR AS AREAS OF
CONVECTION CROSSES EACH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL INITIALLY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THERE WILL THEN BE A
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. CEILINGS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNINGS AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  71  47  69 /  80  60  60  30
GCK  53  71  43  69 /  80  50  60  30
EHA  47  71  42  66 /  70  30  30  20
LBL  50  73  43  69 /  80  40  40  30
HYS  56  71  50  71 /  70  60  60  50
P28  58  72  55  72 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 162312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR AS AREAS OF
CONVECTION CROSSES EACH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL INITIALLY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THERE WILL THEN BE A
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. CEILINGS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNINGS AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  71  47  69 /  80  60  60  30
GCK  53  71  43  69 /  80  50  60  30
EHA  47  71  42  66 /  70  30  30  20
LBL  50  73  43  69 /  80  40  40  30
HYS  56  71  50  71 /  70  60  60  50
P28  58  72  55  72 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR AS AREAS OF
CONVECTION CROSSES EACH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL INITIALLY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THERE WILL THEN BE A
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. CEILINGS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNINGS AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  71  47  69 /  80  60  60  30
GCK  53  71  43  69 /  80  50  60  30
EHA  47  71  42  66 /  70  30  30  20
LBL  50  73  43  69 /  80  40  40  30
HYS  56  71  50  71 /  70  60  60  50
P28  58  72  55  72 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LOCAL TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION IS
MODELED BY THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO GO FAIRLY
MULTICELLULAR, OR A BROKEN LINE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEGINNING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS EARLY AS
20-22 UTC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  49  69 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  52  68  44  69 /  60  60  60  40
EHA  51  67  42  66 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  54  70  46  69 /  60  50  40  30
HYS  53  69  49  71 /  80  70  60  50
P28  56  71  54  72 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LOCAL TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION IS
MODELED BY THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO GO FAIRLY
MULTICELLULAR, OR A BROKEN LINE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEGINNING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS EARLY AS
20-22 UTC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  49  69 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  52  68  44  69 /  60  60  60  40
EHA  51  67  42  66 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  54  70  46  69 /  60  50  40  30
HYS  53  69  49  71 /  80  70  60  50
P28  56  71  54  72 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LOCAL TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION IS
MODELED BY THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO GO FAIRLY
MULTICELLULAR, OR A BROKEN LINE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEGINNING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS EARLY AS
20-22 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  49  69 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  52  68  44  69 /  60  60  60  40
EHA  51  67  42  66 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  54  70  46  69 /  60  50  40  30
HYS  53  69  49  71 /  80  70  60  50
P28  56  71  54  72 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LOCAL TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION IS
MODELED BY THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO GO FAIRLY
MULTICELLULAR, OR A BROKEN LINE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEGINNING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS EARLY AS
20-22 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  49  69 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  52  68  44  69 /  60  60  60  40
EHA  51  67  42  66 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  54  70  46  69 /  60  50  40  30
HYS  53  69  49  71 /  80  70  60  50
P28  56  71  54  72 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LOCAL TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION IS
MODELED BY THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO GO FAIRLY
MULTICELLULAR, OR A BROKEN LINE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEGINNING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS EARLY AS
20-22 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  49  69 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  52  68  44  69 /  60  60  60  40
EHA  51  67  42  66 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  54  70  46  69 /  60  50  40  30
HYS  53  69  49  71 /  80  70  60  50
P28  56  71  54  72 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LOCAL TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION IS
MODELED BY THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO GO FAIRLY
MULTICELLULAR, OR A BROKEN LINE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEGINNING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS EARLY AS
20-22 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  49  69 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  52  68  44  69 /  60  60  60  40
EHA  51  67  42  66 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  54  70  46  69 /  60  50  40  30
HYS  53  69  49  71 /  80  70  60  50
P28  56  71  54  72 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161654
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 19Z WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  80  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  50  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  80  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161654
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 19Z WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  80  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  50  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  80  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161126
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
LARGE DRY SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL
AND GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 19Z WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161126
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
LARGE DRY SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL
AND GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 19Z WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161126
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
LARGE DRY SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL
AND GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 19Z WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161126
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
LARGE DRY SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL
AND GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 19Z WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 160844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY
SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL AND
GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 160844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY
SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL AND
GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 160838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY
SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL AND
GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 160838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY
SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL AND
GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 160838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY
SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL AND
GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 160838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY
SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL AND
GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 160606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER PRECIPITABLE  WATER. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT  INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THIS PATTERN ON FRIDAY , A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL CONVECTION MODE IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AND MORE SO FORM THE
CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM MIX WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DROUGHT. MODELS AND PLUME DIAGRAMS SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
THE GFS ON THE LOW END AND THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL, MUCH MORE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP, AND FAR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST, WHERE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIMITED.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE FILLING AND DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LOW, AND A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND
INSTABILITY/COLD AIR ADVECTION  SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY  AND POSSIBLY LATER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER A PERFECTLY DRY PATTERN IS NOT CERTAIN AS THE WAVE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG POLAR JET IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL LATE DAY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY, DRIVEN ALONG ANY
SUPPORTIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE /INSTABILITY AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  51  70  47 /  70  70  50  60
GCK  70  47  68  45 /  70  60  40  60
EHA  67  43  67  42 /  40  60  30  60
LBL  67  47  70  45 /  70  60  40  60
HYS  68  50  69  48 /  70  80  80  60
P28  76  54  72  52 /  30  70  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 160606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER PRECIPITABLE  WATER. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT  INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THIS PATTERN ON FRIDAY , A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL CONVECTION MODE IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AND MORE SO FORM THE
CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM MIX WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DROUGHT. MODELS AND PLUME DIAGRAMS SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
THE GFS ON THE LOW END AND THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL, MUCH MORE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP, AND FAR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST, WHERE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIMITED.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE FILLING AND DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LOW, AND A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND
INSTABILITY/COLD AIR ADVECTION  SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY  AND POSSIBLY LATER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER A PERFECTLY DRY PATTERN IS NOT CERTAIN AS THE WAVE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG POLAR JET IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL LATE DAY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY, DRIVEN ALONG ANY
SUPPORTIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE /INSTABILITY AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  51  70  47 /  70  70  50  60
GCK  70  47  68  45 /  70  60  40  60
EHA  67  43  67  42 /  40  60  30  60
LBL  67  47  70  45 /  70  60  40  60
HYS  68  50  69  48 /  70  80  80  60
P28  76  54  72  52 /  30  70  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 160606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER PRECIPITABLE  WATER. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT  INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THIS PATTERN ON FRIDAY , A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL CONVECTION MODE IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AND MORE SO FORM THE
CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM MIX WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DROUGHT. MODELS AND PLUME DIAGRAMS SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
THE GFS ON THE LOW END AND THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL, MUCH MORE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP, AND FAR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST, WHERE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIMITED.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE FILLING AND DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LOW, AND A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND
INSTABILITY/COLD AIR ADVECTION  SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY  AND POSSIBLY LATER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER A PERFECTLY DRY PATTERN IS NOT CERTAIN AS THE WAVE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG POLAR JET IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL LATE DAY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY, DRIVEN ALONG ANY
SUPPORTIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE /INSTABILITY AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  51  70  47 /  70  70  50  60
GCK  70  47  68  45 /  70  60  40  60
EHA  67  43  67  42 /  40  60  30  60
LBL  67  47  70  45 /  70  60  40  60
HYS  68  50  69  48 /  70  80  80  60
P28  76  54  72  52 /  30  70  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 160606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER PRECIPITABLE  WATER. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT  INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THIS PATTERN ON FRIDAY , A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL CONVECTION MODE IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AND MORE SO FORM THE
CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM MIX WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DROUGHT. MODELS AND PLUME DIAGRAMS SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
THE GFS ON THE LOW END AND THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL, MUCH MORE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP, AND FAR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST, WHERE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIMITED.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE FILLING AND DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LOW, AND A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND
INSTABILITY/COLD AIR ADVECTION  SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY  AND POSSIBLY LATER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER A PERFECTLY DRY PATTERN IS NOT CERTAIN AS THE WAVE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG POLAR JET IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL LATE DAY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY, DRIVEN ALONG ANY
SUPPORTIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE /INSTABILITY AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  51  70  47 /  70  70  50  60
GCK  70  47  68  45 /  70  60  40  60
EHA  67  43  67  42 /  40  60  30  60
LBL  67  47  70  45 /  70  60  40  60
HYS  68  50  69  48 /  70  80  80  60
P28  76  54  72  52 /  30  70  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 152310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER PRECIPITABLE  WATER. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT  INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THIS PATTERN ON FRIDAY , A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL CONVECTION MODE IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AND MORE SO FORM THE
CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM MIX WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DROUGHT. MODELS AND PLUME DIAGRAMS SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
THE GFS ON THE LOW END AND THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL, MUCH MORE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP, AND FAR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST, WHERE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIMITED.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE FILLING AND DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LOW, AND A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND
INSTABILITY/COLD AIR ADVECTION  SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY  AND POSSIBLY LATER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER A PERFECTLY DRY PATTERN IS NOT CERTAIN AS THE WAVE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG POLAR JET IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL LATE DAY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY, DRIVEN ALONG ANY
SUPPORTIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE /INSTABILITY AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORING SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 156 WHILE MORE ISOLATED/WIDE SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS HIGHWAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IN THE
NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT HYS FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER SOUTH LEFT ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT
AND ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME MAINLY STATUS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH CEILINGS FALLING BACK TO 1000FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
RESULT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS TO HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING
BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  70  51  70 /  20  70  70  50
GCK  48  70  47  68 /  20  70  60  40
EHA  46  67  43  67 /  20  40  60  30
LBL  52  67  47  70 /  30  70  60  40
HYS  51  68  50  69 /  30  70  80  80
P28  54  76  54  72 /  20  30  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ074-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 152310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER PRECIPITABLE  WATER. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT  INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THIS PATTERN ON FRIDAY , A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL CONVECTION MODE IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AND MORE SO FORM THE
CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM MIX WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DROUGHT. MODELS AND PLUME DIAGRAMS SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
THE GFS ON THE LOW END AND THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL, MUCH MORE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP, AND FAR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST, WHERE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIMITED.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE FILLING AND DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LOW, AND A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND
INSTABILITY/COLD AIR ADVECTION  SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY  AND POSSIBLY LATER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER A PERFECTLY DRY PATTERN IS NOT CERTAIN AS THE WAVE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG POLAR JET IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL LATE DAY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY, DRIVEN ALONG ANY
SUPPORTIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE /INSTABILITY AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE FAVORING SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 156 WHILE MORE ISOLATED/WIDE SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS HIGHWAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IN THE
NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT HYS FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER SOUTH LEFT ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT
AND ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME MAINLY STATUS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH CEILINGS FALLING BACK TO 1000FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
RESULT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS TO HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING
BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  70  51  70 /  20  70  70  50
GCK  48  70  47  68 /  20  70  60  40
EHA  46  67  43  67 /  20  40  60  30
LBL  52  67  47  70 /  30  70  60  40
HYS  51  68  50  69 /  30  70  80  80
P28  54  76  54  72 /  20  30  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ074-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




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