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000
FXUS63 KDDC 252330
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS, ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL, WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WITH THE INCREASING
FLOW WE WILL SEE INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. MODEL PW
FIELDS APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND DAY7/8, THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AROUND DDC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS HENCE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  30  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  40  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 252330
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS, ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL, WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WITH THE INCREASING
FLOW WE WILL SEE INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. MODEL PW
FIELDS APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND DAY7/8, THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AROUND DDC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS HENCE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  30  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  40  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 252330
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS, ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL, WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WITH THE INCREASING
FLOW WE WILL SEE INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. MODEL PW
FIELDS APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND DAY7/8, THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AROUND DDC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS HENCE THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  30  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  40  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 252040
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS, ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL, WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WITH THE INCREASING
FLOW WE WILL SEE INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. MODEL PW
FIELDS APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND DAY7/8, THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER
21Z AND THROUGH 08Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VISBYS MAY NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  40  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  30  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 252040
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS, ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL, WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WITH THE INCREASING
FLOW WE WILL SEE INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. MODEL PW
FIELDS APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND DAY7/8, THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER
21Z AND THROUGH 08Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VISBYS MAY NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  40  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  30  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 252020
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER
21Z AND THROUGH 08Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VISBYS MAY NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  40  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  30  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 252020
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER
21Z AND THROUGH 08Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VISBYS MAY NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  40  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  30  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 251809
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
109 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER
21Z AND THROUGH 08Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VISBYS MAY NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  78  57  82 /  40  20  20  20
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  30
EHA  53  78  54  82 /  30  20  20  40
LBL  54  79  57  85 /  30  20  20  30
HYS  54  79  56  81 /  40  10  20  30
P28  58  77  60  83 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 251158
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
658 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT GCK AND DDC THIS MORNING,
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SHOULD GENERALLY  BRING VFR CONDITIONS AS THE STATUS IS LIKELY
TO MIX OUT VERTICALLY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AREAL
COVERAGE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 251158
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
658 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT GCK AND DDC THIS MORNING,
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SHOULD GENERALLY  BRING VFR CONDITIONS AS THE STATUS IS LIKELY
TO MIX OUT VERTICALLY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AREAL
COVERAGE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251158
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
658 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT GCK AND DDC THIS MORNING,
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SHOULD GENERALLY  BRING VFR CONDITIONS AS THE STATUS IS LIKELY
TO MIX OUT VERTICALLY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AREAL
COVERAGE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 251158
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
658 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IFR STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT GCK AND DDC THIS MORNING,
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SHOULD GENERALLY  BRING VFR CONDITIONS AS THE STATUS IS LIKELY
TO MIX OUT VERTICALLY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AREAL
COVERAGE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 250938
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
438 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250938
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
438 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  78  57 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  76  53  77  55 /  40  40  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  77  54  79  57 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  30  40  10  20
P28  78  58  77  60 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 250631
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  55  78  57 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  77  52  77  55 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  79  54  79  57 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  77  53  79  56 /  30  30  10  20
P28  84  58  77  60 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 250631
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  55  78  57 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  77  52  77  55 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  79  54  79  57 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  77  53  79  56 /  30  30  10  20
P28  84  58  77  60 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250631
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  55  78  57 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  77  52  77  55 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  79  54  79  57 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  77  53  79  56 /  30  30  10  20
P28  84  58  77  60 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 242307
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE, MAINLY BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AT DDC AND GCK. BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS IFR
STATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE
RANGE ALSO LOOKS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES. HYS WILL ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE ONSET OF THESE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO 06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT. TIMING ON CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND THE
GCK AREA AROUND 03Z AND DDC CLOSER TO 06Z. IF THE STORMS HOLD
TODAY THEN HYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  58  77  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  55  77  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  59  79  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  84  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 242307
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE, MAINLY BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AT DDC AND GCK. BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS IFR
STATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE
RANGE ALSO LOOKS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES. HYS WILL ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE ONSET OF THESE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO 06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT. TIMING ON CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND THE
GCK AREA AROUND 03Z AND DDC CLOSER TO 06Z. IF THE STORMS HOLD
TODAY THEN HYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  58  77  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  55  77  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  59  79  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  84  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 242307
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE, MAINLY BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AT DDC AND GCK. BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS IFR
STATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE
RANGE ALSO LOOKS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES. HYS WILL ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE ONSET OF THESE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO 06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT. TIMING ON CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND THE
GCK AREA AROUND 03Z AND DDC CLOSER TO 06Z. IF THE STORMS HOLD
TODAY THEN HYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  58  77  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  55  77  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  59  79  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  84  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 242307
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE, MAINLY BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AT DDC AND GCK. BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS IFR
STATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE
RANGE ALSO LOOKS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES. HYS WILL ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE ONSET OF THESE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO 06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT. TIMING ON CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND THE
GCK AREA AROUND 03Z AND DDC CLOSER TO 06Z. IF THE STORMS HOLD
TODAY THEN HYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  58  77  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  55  77  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  59  79  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  84  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 242045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  79  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  54  76  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  53  75  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  55  78  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  83  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 242045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  79  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  54  76  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  53  75  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  55  78  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  83  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 242013
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  79  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  54  76  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  53  75  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  55  78  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  83  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
AS MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT. FURTHER, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX INTERACTS WITH A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS WAVE, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL SIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A SURFACE LOW OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ANTICIPATED THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTEAD...THIS
WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SETUP WILL
BE TRICKY, BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MID 70S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, A NARROW RIBBON OF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY
MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION, CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING ABLE
TO SUSTAIN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION APPEARING UNLIKELY. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 56 DURING THE
LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  61  79  55 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  70  54  76  52 /  20  40  20  30
EHA  76  53  75  53 /  20  40  20  20
LBL  74  55  78  54 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  69  58  77  53 /  20  30  30  20
P28  71  60  83  58 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
AS MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT. FURTHER, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX INTERACTS WITH A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS WAVE, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL SIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A SURFACE LOW OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ANTICIPATED THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTEAD...THIS
WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SETUP WILL
BE TRICKY, BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MID 70S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, A NARROW RIBBON OF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY
MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION, CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING ABLE
TO SUSTAIN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION APPEARING UNLIKELY. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 56 DURING THE
LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  61  79  55 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  70  54  76  52 /  20  40  20  30
EHA  76  53  75  53 /  20  40  20  20
LBL  74  55  78  54 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  69  58  77  53 /  20  30  30  20
P28  71  60  83  58 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 241758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
AS MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT. FURTHER, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX INTERACTS WITH A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS WAVE, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL SIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A SURFACE LOW OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ANTICIPATED THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTEAD...THIS
WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SETUP WILL
BE TRICKY, BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MID 70S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, A NARROW RIBBON OF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY
MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION, CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING ABLE
TO SUSTAIN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION APPEARING UNLIKELY. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 56 DURING THE
LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  61  79  55 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  70  54  76  52 /  20  40  20  30
EHA  76  53  75  53 /  20  40  20  20
LBL  74  55  78  54 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  69  58  77  53 /  20  30  30  20
P28  71  60  83  58 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240905
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
AS MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT. FURTHER, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX INTERACTS WITH A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS WAVE, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL SIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A SURFACE LOW OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ANTICIPATED THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTEAD...THIS
WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SETUP WILL
BE TRICKY, BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MID 70S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, A NARROW RIBBON OF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY
MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION, CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING ABLE
TO SUSTAIN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION APPEARING UNLIKELY. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 56 DURING THE
LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  54  78  55 /  30  20  20  30
GCK  70  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  20  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  71  59  81  58 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240905
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
AS MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT. FURTHER, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX INTERACTS WITH A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS WAVE, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL SIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A SURFACE LOW OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ANTICIPATED THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTEAD...THIS
WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SETUP WILL
BE TRICKY, BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MID 70S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, A NARROW RIBBON OF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY
MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION, CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING ABLE
TO SUSTAIN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION APPEARING UNLIKELY. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 56 DURING THE
LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  54  78  55 /  30  20  20  30
GCK  70  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  20  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  71  59  81  58 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240905
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
AS MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT. FURTHER, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX INTERACTS WITH A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS WAVE, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL SIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A SURFACE LOW OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ANTICIPATED THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTEAD...THIS
WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SETUP WILL
BE TRICKY, BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MID 70S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, A NARROW RIBBON OF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY
MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION, CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING ABLE
TO SUSTAIN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION APPEARING UNLIKELY. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 56 DURING THE
LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  54  78  55 /  30  20  20  30
GCK  70  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  20  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  71  59  81  58 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  54  78  55 /  30  30  20  30
GCK  72  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  30  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  72  59  81  58 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  54  78  55 /  30  30  20  30
GCK  72  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  30  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  72  59  81  58 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  54  78  55 /  30  30  20  30
GCK  72  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  30  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  72  59  81  58 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  54  78  55 /  30  30  20  30
GCK  72  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  30  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  72  59  81  58 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240539
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  79  55  78 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  52  78  53  78 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  51  77  52  78 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  54  79  55  79 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  57  78  55  78 /  30  20  20  10
P28  60  81  59  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240539
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  79  55  78 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  52  78  53  78 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  51  77  52  78 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  54  79  55  79 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  57  78  55  78 /  30  20  20  10
P28  60  81  59  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 232317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. PERIODS OF LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  72  57  79 /  20  30  20  10
GCK  58  74  52  78 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  54  78  51  77 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  59  78  54  79 /  10  30  10  10
HYS  59  73  57  78 /  20  30  20  20
P28  63  71  60  81 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 232317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. PERIODS OF LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  72  57  79 /  20  30  20  10
GCK  58  74  52  78 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  54  78  51  77 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  59  78  54  79 /  10  30  10  10
HYS  59  73  57  78 /  20  30  20  20
P28  63  71  60  81 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 232317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. PERIODS OF LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  72  57  79 /  20  30  20  10
GCK  58  74  52  78 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  54  78  51  77 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  59  78  54  79 /  10  30  10  10
HYS  59  73  57  78 /  20  30  20  20
P28  63  71  60  81 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 232317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. PERIODS OF LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  72  57  79 /  20  30  20  10
GCK  58  74  52  78 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  54  78  51  77 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  59  78  54  79 /  10  30  10  10
HYS  59  73  57  78 /  20  30  20  20
P28  63  71  60  81 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 232057
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 232057
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 232022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 232022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 232006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 232006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 231801
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO WEEKENDS. THERE WAS
A HEALTHY MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THIS COMPLEX LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E
AIR NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR
THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE
HAIL. BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IS PROBABLY LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS GETTING TO A POINT WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES, THE IMPACT WOULD
LIKELY BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY, IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SEVERE THREAT WORDING IN THE
GRIDS. WITH THE "ALMOST" MERIDIONAL FLOW TONIGHT, THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST, NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST
AREA. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD RETURN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTHWARD.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH
EJECTING S/WV THROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  57 /  90  30  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  52 /  90  20  40  20
EHA  74  53  78  51 / 100  20  20  10
LBL  69  57  79  54 /  90  20  30  10
HYS  64  59  75  57 /  80  40  30  20
P28  66  62  76  60 /  90  70  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 231801
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO WEEKENDS. THERE WAS
A HEALTHY MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THIS COMPLEX LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E
AIR NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR
THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE
HAIL. BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IS PROBABLY LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS GETTING TO A POINT WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES, THE IMPACT WOULD
LIKELY BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY, IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SEVERE THREAT WORDING IN THE
GRIDS. WITH THE "ALMOST" MERIDIONAL FLOW TONIGHT, THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST, NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST
AREA. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD RETURN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTHWARD.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH
EJECTING S/WV THROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  57 /  90  30  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  52 /  90  20  40  20
EHA  74  53  78  51 / 100  20  20  10
LBL  69  57  79  54 /  90  20  30  10
HYS  64  59  75  57 /  80  40  30  20
P28  66  62  76  60 /  90  70  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO WEEKENDS. THERE WAS
A HEALTHY MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THIS COMPLEX LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E
AIR NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR
THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE
HAIL. BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IS PROBABLY LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS GETTING TO A POINT WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES, THE IMPACT WOULD
LIKELY BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY, IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SEVERE THREAT WORDING IN THE
GRIDS. WITH THE "ALMOST" MERIDIONAL FLOW TONIGHT, THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST, NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST
AREA. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD RETURN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTHWARD.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH
EJECTING S/WV THROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  58 /  80  20  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  53 /  80  20  30  30
EHA  74  53  78  52 /  80  10  10  10
LBL  68  57  79  55 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  64  59  75  58 /  80  30  30  30
P28  66  62  76  61 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO WEEKENDS. THERE WAS
A HEALTHY MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THIS COMPLEX LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E
AIR NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR
THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE
HAIL. BUT THE GREATEST THREAT IS PROBABLY LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS GETTING TO A POINT WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES, THE IMPACT WOULD
LIKELY BE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. BUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY, IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SEVERE THREAT WORDING IN THE
GRIDS. WITH THE "ALMOST" MERIDIONAL FLOW TONIGHT, THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST, NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST
AREA. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD RETURN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTHWARD.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH
EJECTING S/WV THROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  58 /  80  20  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  53 /  80  20  30  30
EHA  74  53  78  52 /  80  10  10  10
LBL  68  57  79  55 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  64  59  75  58 /  80  30  30  30
P28  66  62  76  61 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230829
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  58 /  80  20  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  53 /  80  20  30  30
EHA  74  53  78  52 /  80  10  10  10
LBL  68  57  79  55 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  64  59  75  58 /  80  30  30  30
P28  66  62  76  61 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230829
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LOW (500 MB CIRCULATION) WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN PLACE,
WHILE THE MODELS DEVELOP A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA. THE NAM/GFS MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES A BETTER SIGNAL. THE NAM RATHER INDICATES LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TERRAIN STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST PERHAPS
INTO  OUR FAR WESTER COUNTIES LATER SUNDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY FOR
SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS PATTERN. A STEADY BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ENABLES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION
EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS
POPS BETWEEN 15 AND 40 PERCENT CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED WET
PATTERN, CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  60  76  58 /  80  20  30  20
GCK  66  56  79  53 /  80  20  30  30
EHA  74  53  78  52 /  80  10  10  10
LBL  68  57  79  55 /  80  20  20  20
HYS  64  59  75  58 /  80  30  30  30
P28  66  62  76  61 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HUTTON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230534
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TREKKING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE MOON LOOKS TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED TOWARDS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
KANSAS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE
SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN AROUND 80
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  77  56  78 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  56  78  53  76 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  53  78  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  57  78  54  78 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  58  77  56  77 /  40  30  30  20
P28  61  76  59  79 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HUTTON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230534
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TREKKING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE MOON LOOKS TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED TOWARDS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
KANSAS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE
SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN AROUND 80
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  77  56  78 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  56  78  53  76 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  53  78  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  57  78  54  78 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  58  77  56  77 /  40  30  30  20
P28  61  76  59  79 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HUTTON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230534
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TREKKING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE MOON LOOKS TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED TOWARDS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
KANSAS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE
SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN AROUND 80
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  77  56  78 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  56  78  53  76 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  53  78  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  57  78  54  78 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  58  77  56  77 /  40  30  30  20
P28  61  76  59  79 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HUTTON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230534
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TREKKING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE MOON LOOKS TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED TOWARDS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
KANSAS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE
SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN AROUND 80
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SURGING BACK NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEMS SURROUND THE CEILING HEIGHTS AND
THE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN SFC VISIBILITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES BACK.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT AS FAR AS CONTINUED
FIGHT TO FORECAST CEILING HEIGHTS AND ESPECIALLY SFC
VISIBILITIES. LATER THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, THE ISSUE TURNS
TO CONVECTION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CORRECT SO FAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  77  56  78 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  56  78  53  76 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  53  78  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  57  78  54  78 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  58  77  56  77 /  40  30  30  20
P28  61  76  59  79 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HUTTON





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