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000
FXUS63 KDDC 210720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

An upper level low will continue to slowly move eastward today
through tonight with a large upper level high centered over the
southeast United States. Mid levels of the atmosphere become more
saturated as today progresses with increased cloudiness expected
this evening into the overnight period. A trough of low pressure
will be observed at the surface, extending from northwest Kansas
back into southeast Colorado. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure
will be located across the southeast United States. These features
will allow south to southwest winds to be felt today through tonight
with breezy conditions likely this afternoon as the atmosphere
mixes. During peak heating, a few thunderstorms may form ahead of
the aforementioned trough. Severe storms are not expected, but with
such a wide T/Td separation, a few storms may be capable of
producing strong winds up to 55 mph. Any storms that do form should
move eastward this evening then move out of or dissipate by or
around midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into the mid to
upper 90s with around 100 degrees across the KS/OK border. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s across the KS/CO
border to the mid 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds
across the HYS terminal. A trough of low pressure will intensify
across far western Kansas bringing southerly winds around 11 knots to
the TAF sites. Sustained winds increase to around 15 knots by late
morning with gusts at 20 to 25 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  73 100  70 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  97  71  99  68 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  96  70  97  68 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  99  72 100  70 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  99  73 100  71 /  20  20  20  30
P28  99  76 100  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 210720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

An upper level low will continue to slowly move eastward today
through tonight with a large upper level high centered over the
southeast United States. Mid levels of the atmosphere become more
saturated as today progresses with increased cloudiness expected
this evening into the overnight period. A trough of low pressure
will be observed at the surface, extending from northwest Kansas
back into southeast Colorado. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure
will be located across the southeast United States. These features
will allow south to southwest winds to be felt today through tonight
with breezy conditions likely this afternoon as the atmosphere
mixes. During peak heating, a few thunderstorms may form ahead of
the aforementioned trough. Severe storms are not expected, but with
such a wide T/Td separation, a few storms may be capable of
producing strong winds up to 55 mph. Any storms that do form should
move eastward this evening then move out of or dissipate by or
around midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into the mid to
upper 90s with around 100 degrees across the KS/OK border. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s across the KS/CO
border to the mid 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds
across the HYS terminal. A trough of low pressure will intensify
across far western Kansas bringing southerly winds around 11 knots to
the TAF sites. Sustained winds increase to around 15 knots by late
morning with gusts at 20 to 25 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  73 100  70 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  97  71  99  68 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  96  70  97  68 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  99  72 100  70 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  99  73 100  71 /  20  20  20  30
P28  99  76 100  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 210521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds
across the HYS terminal. A trough of low pressure will intensify
across far western Kansas bringing southerly winds around 11 knots to
the TAF sites. Sustained winds increase to around 15 knots by late
morning with gusts at 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 100  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  69  99  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  69  97  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
LBL  72 100  70  97 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  71 100  71  96 /  20  20  30  30
P28  75 100  72  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 210022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
722 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A weak trough near the Colorado line will help keep winds breezy
and southerly through the TAF period. A brief period of decoupling
can be expected from around  08-14 Z, before deep mixing resumes. VFR
category conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  98  72 100 /   0  10  20  20
GCK  73  97  69  99 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  71  96  69  97 /   0  20  20  20
LBL  73  99  72 100 /   0  20  20  20
HYS  74  98  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
P28  75  98  75 100 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 210022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
722 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A weak trough near the Colorado line will help keep winds breezy
and southerly through the TAF period. A brief period of decoupling
can be expected from around  08-14 Z, before deep mixing resumes. VFR
category conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  98  72 100 /   0  10  20  20
GCK  73  97  69  99 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  71  96  69  97 /   0  20  20  20
LBL  73  99  72 100 /   0  20  20  20
HYS  74  98  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
P28  75  98  75 100 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 201934
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in south winds at 18-23kts. Winds will stay breezy
tonight despite the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  70  98  69  99 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  69  97  69  97 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  70 100  72 100 /  10  20  20  20
HYS  72  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
P28  72  98  75 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 201934
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in south winds at 18-23kts. Winds will stay breezy
tonight despite the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  70  98  69  99 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  69  97  69  97 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  70 100  72 100 /  10  20  20  20
HYS  72  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
P28  72  98  75 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 201753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in south winds at 18-23kts. Winds will stay breezy
tonight despite the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  98  70  98  70 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  98  69  97  71 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  99  70 100  73 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  98  72  99  72 /  10  10  20  20
P28  98  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 201753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in south winds at 18-23kts. Winds will stay breezy
tonight despite the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  98  70  98  70 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  98  69  97  71 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  99  70 100  73 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  98  72  99  72 /  10  10  20  20
P28  98  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch









000
FXUS63 KDDC 201201
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in south winds at 18-23kts. Winds will stay breezy
tonight despite the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  97  70  98  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  69  97  71 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  97  70 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  97  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  96  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 201201
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in south winds at 18-23kts. Winds will stay breezy
tonight despite the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  97  70  98  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  69  97  71 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  97  70 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  97  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  96  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 200858
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  97  70  99  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  97  70  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  97  72  98  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  96  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KDDC 200858
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  97  70  99  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  97  70  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  97  72  98  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  96  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 200533 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  99  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  69  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  70  99  73  98 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  72  98  72  96 /  10  20  20  20
P28  72  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KDDC 200533 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  99  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  69  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  70  99  73  98 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  72  98  72  96 /  10  20  20  20
P28  72  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 200522 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1222 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  99  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  69  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  70  99  73  98 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  72  98  72  96 /  10  20  20  20
P28  72  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KDDC 200522 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1222 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  99  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  69  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  70  99  73  98 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  72  98  72  96 /  10  20  20  20
P28  72  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 200045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
745 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Southerly winds will persist through the entire TAF period, becoming
gusty in the late morning again through Wednesday afternoon as the
boundary layer mixes out. Widely scattered VFR cumulus will
dissipate this evening sn CB`s associated with diurnal development
will remain a non factor across west central KS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  69  98  71  99 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  68  97  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  69  99  73  99 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  71  97  73  98 /   0   0  20  20
P28  72  97  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 192000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  70  97  71  99 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  69  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  70  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0   0  20  20
P28  74  98  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 192000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
this time.

Friday and beyond:

The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  70  97  71  99 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  69  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  70  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0   0  20  20
P28  74  98  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 191932
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  70  97  70  99 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  69  96  68  96 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  70  97  71  99 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0   0  20  10
P28  74  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 191932
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is an upper level high pressure ridge working east across the
plains, helping to squash the convection potential this evening.
There have been some mid and high level cumulus-type clouds building
up, they get suppressed downward about as soon as they bubble up.
Will keep a dry forecast going tonight, with winds early from the
south at 12g20kt.  After sundown, or about 03z, winds should settle
from the southeast at 09-12kt.  There is a surface trough near the
Colorado border, and it will only move east and west just a little
over the next 2 days.  I did not change the forecast minimum temps
tonight, as near 70F degrees in our west and around 74F degrees in
our southeast near Kiowa seems reasonable.

On Wednesday, we will have a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas, with a low pressure trough again near the Kansas/Colorado
border.  There will be some layered moisture riding up through
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, but the south flow over our
CWA should result in some mixing out at the lowest layers and the
dew points drying out a little.  Our far west counties could see dew
points dip into the 40s, the lowest they would have been in quite
awhile.  Surface temperatures should soar into the upper 90s at most
locations, and winds will be pretty windy from the south at 25 mph
gusting to 35 mph.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  70  97  70  99 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  69  96  68  96 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  70  97  71  99 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0   0  20  10
P28  74  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 191656
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There is a surface trough near the Colorado and Kansas border,
which will move very little today. A cold front will slip
southward into the I-70 corridor. Scattered, to at times broken,
high cirrus clouds will exist over the TAF sites through tonight.
South to southwest winds of 14g22kt will shift to the southeast
tonight an blow at 16g22kt early tonight, before dropping to
southeast at 10 to 11 knots after 03z tonight. There is a very
slight chance for convection this evening in the KHYS site, but I
have doubts the thunderstorms will move into the KHYS site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  98  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
P28  98  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 191159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in increasing south winds at 15 kts with daytime heating
by 15-16z. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  98  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
P28  98  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 191159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in increasing south winds at 15 kts with daytime heating
by 15-16z. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  98  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
P28  98  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 190857
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate by 07-09Z
this morning. A lee trough of low pressure will deepen with south
winds increasing to 15-25kt after 18Z. VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  98  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
P28  98  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KDDC 190857
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually deepen over the northwestern
United States through Saturday and then gradually progress across the
northern Rockies by Sunday and into the northern plains by Monday.
In addition, just south of this upper level system, a weaker upper
level trough will slowly progress eastward from off of the West
Coast into the southern Rockies. Southwestern Kansas will be in the
warm sector every day as weak surface troughing remains over
western Kansas. The northern edge of the southern plains hot plume
will be across northern Kansas. There may be enough low level
convergence in far western Kansas and along the Interstate 70
corridor for isolated thunderstorms just about every day. Due to
the deep mixing in the warm sector, surface based CAPE will be
very limited in the warm sector with cloud based very high.
Therefore, isolated wind gusts will be the main storm threat.
Temperatures will generally be from 96F to 101F each day, with
lows mainly from 70 along the Colorado border to the mid 70s in
central Kansas.

The timing of the aforementioned upper level troughs and associated
cold front is still in question, with the ECMWF slower and GFS the
fastest. As the systems get closer and cold front arrives,
thunderstorm chances will increase sometime between Saturday night
and Sunday night and persist into Monday. Cooler temperatures can
be expected by either Sunday or Monday, with highs falling back
into the 80s or lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate by 07-09Z
this morning. A lee trough of low pressure will deepen with south
winds increasing to 15-25kt after 18Z. VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  98  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
P28  98  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 190755 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Early morning showers and thunderstorms from near Liberal to Dodge
City and Saint John will gradually weaken as they drift
southeastward towards Pratt, Coldwater, and Medicine Lodge by 6 am
this morning. These storms set off from outflow from an MCS that
traveled across parts of north central Kansas.

Upper level ridging will build back into the Central Plains today
and tonight with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A trough
of low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies today with
south winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 850mb temps
are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday when many
areas hit around 100 degrees. Today`s highs look to be warm and
in the upper 90s. Tonight, south winds will still be in the 10 to
20 mph range with a mild night and lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate by 07-09Z
this morning. A lee trough of low pressure will deepen with south
winds increasing to 15-25kt after 18Z. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  98  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  98  71  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
P28  98  74  98  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KDDC 190535 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate by 07-09Z
this morning. A lee trough of low pressure will deepen with south
winds increasing to 15-25kt after 18Z. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  70  98  70 100 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  69  98  68  97 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  70  98  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0  10  20  20
P28  74  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 190535 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will dissipate by 07-09Z
this morning. A lee trough of low pressure will deepen with south
winds increasing to 15-25kt after 18Z. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  70  98  70 100 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  69  98  68  97 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  70  98  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  73  98 /   0  10  20  20
P28  74  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KDDC 182310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight and Tuesday based on the
moisture profiles from the 18z NAM BUFR soundings. Ongoing
diurnally driven convection near GCK and DDC will dissipate by or
shortly after sunset. There will be another chance for convection
after 03z as an upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. At
this time given the latest NAM, RAP, and HRRR the probability for
convection after 03z at GCK, DDC, or HYS still appears small so will
not include mention of a prevailing group of convection in the 00z
tafs. Will place VCTS in the HYS tafs for several hours, mainly
between 04z and 08z. Prevailing winds will be south/southwest at
around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  97  71  99 /  30  10   0  10
GCK  67  96  70  98 /  30  10   0  10
EHA  66  95  68  98 /  30  10   0  20
LBL  66  96  71  98 /  30  10   0  10
HYS  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
P28  70  98  74  99 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 182310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight and Tuesday based on the
moisture profiles from the 18z NAM BUFR soundings. Ongoing
diurnally driven convection near GCK and DDC will dissipate by or
shortly after sunset. There will be another chance for convection
after 03z as an upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. At
this time given the latest NAM, RAP, and HRRR the probability for
convection after 03z at GCK, DDC, or HYS still appears small so will
not include mention of a prevailing group of convection in the 00z
tafs. Will place VCTS in the HYS tafs for several hours, mainly
between 04z and 08z. Prevailing winds will be south/southwest at
around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  97  71  99 /  30  10   0  10
GCK  67  96  70  98 /  30  10   0  10
EHA  66  95  68  98 /  30  10   0  20
LBL  66  96  71  98 /  30  10   0  10
HYS  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
P28  70  98  74  99 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181930
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  97  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
GCK  67  96  70  98 /  30  10   0  10
EHA  66  95  68  98 /  20  10   0  20
LBL  66  96  71  98 /  20  10   0  10
HYS  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
P28  70  98  74  99 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 181930
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning eastward out of the Western High Plains into the
Central Plains to begin the period Tuesday night. Combined with
a weak flow aloft, drier conditions are likely to prevail through
late Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig
southeast across southern California Wednesday setting up a strong
southwest flow aloft across the Central and Southern Rockies,
including a +90kt jet core projected to lift northeast out of the
Desert Southwest into the Colorado Rockies. With a prevailing lee
side trough providing increased convergence in the lower levels,
thunderstorm development is likely across portions of eastern
Colorado Wednesday afternoon with a few storms potentially
drifting into western Kansas later in the evening through early
Thursday. However, the weaker flow aloft across western Kansas
will limit the strength and coverage of any storms. The upper
level shortwave will then lift northeast going into the weekend
while a large scale upper level high remains locked in across the
Deep South. Although precip chances will remain present virtually
each day into the weekend, the weaker flow aloft will limit storm
development, strength, and coverage.

Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Plains. A prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas will
reinforce the warmer air mass already in place across the region
with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to around 30C closer to the Colorado border. As lower level
lapse rates steepen into the afternoon, look for highs well up
into the 90s(F) to near 100F Wednesday. Similar temperatures are
then expected each day through Saturday as the low level southerly
flow persists into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  97  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
GCK  67  96  70  98 /  30  10   0  10
EHA  66  95  68  98 /  20  10   0  20
LBL  66  96  71  98 /  20  10   0  10
HYS  68  98  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
P28  70  98  74  99 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 181800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181701
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181701
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 181203
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
703 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A area of low pressure will remain over far western Kansas through
the period. This will result in generally light southerly winds.
There is a small chance of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms
near the TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181203
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
703 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A area of low pressure will remain over far western Kansas through
the period. This will result in generally light southerly winds.
There is a small chance of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms
near the TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 180901
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
401 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Scattered showers will continue to develop through 08-12Z. A
trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies with
light south to southwest winds becoming south 10-20kt in the
afternoon. At KHYS a weak cold front will push across with light
and variable winds becoming northeasterly at 5-15kt after 17Z. VFR
conditions will prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KDDC 180901
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
401 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Scattered showers will continue to develop through 08-12Z. A
trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies with
light south to southwest winds becoming south 10-20kt in the
afternoon. At KHYS a weak cold front will push across with light
and variable winds becoming northeasterly at 5-15kt after 17Z. VFR
conditions will prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 180822 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

There was not much change in the extended period.  The early part of
the Days 3-7 period will be dominated by an upper level high
pressure system over the 4-corners area, and it will start to
migrate eastward through the southern plains on late Tuesday, and
should be over Florida by early Thursday.  A long wave trough will
form over the northwest part of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday,
while a cut off upper low forms off the western coast of
California by Tuesday and then builds southwestward off the
southwest coast of California by Wednesday and Thursday.

A surface trough will be anchored over southwest Kansas from
Wednesday into Friday night, when then a cold front will surge south
from Nebraska and be through southwest Kansas by Sunday.  This means
it will hot with highs in the upper 90s to around 100F each day, and
lows basically in the lower to mid 70s in our north, along and north
of the I-70 corridor, and as warm as the mid to upper 70s in the
southeast sections near the Coldwater and Medicine Lodge.  It may
cool down into max temps in the 80s on Sunday, behind that front.
With the lower level heating, a surface boundary present in the
afternoon troughing, and just small ripples aloft in the upper
flow, there will be 20 to 30 percent chances for sporadic
thunderstorm activity, but no widespread coverage any particular day.
Also, with that surface trough straddled across our CWA each day,
it will become breezy during the afternoons with south winds in 15
to 25 mph and gusty range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Scattered showers will continue to develop through 08-12Z. A
trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies with
light south to southwest winds becoming south 10-20kt in the
afternoon. At KHYS a weak cold front will push across with light
and variable winds becoming northeasterly at 5-15kt after 17Z. VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 180822 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

There was not much change in the extended period.  The early part of
the Days 3-7 period will be dominated by an upper level high
pressure system over the 4-corners area, and it will start to
migrate eastward through the southern plains on late Tuesday, and
should be over Florida by early Thursday.  A long wave trough will
form over the northwest part of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday,
while a cut off upper low forms off the western coast of
California by Tuesday and then builds southwestward off the
southwest coast of California by Wednesday and Thursday.

A surface trough will be anchored over southwest Kansas from
Wednesday into Friday night, when then a cold front will surge south
from Nebraska and be through southwest Kansas by Sunday.  This means
it will hot with highs in the upper 90s to around 100F each day, and
lows basically in the lower to mid 70s in our north, along and north
of the I-70 corridor, and as warm as the mid to upper 70s in the
southeast sections near the Coldwater and Medicine Lodge.  It may
cool down into max temps in the 80s on Sunday, behind that front.
With the lower level heating, a surface boundary present in the
afternoon troughing, and just small ripples aloft in the upper
flow, there will be 20 to 30 percent chances for sporadic
thunderstorm activity, but no widespread coverage any particular day.
Also, with that surface trough straddled across our CWA each day,
it will become breezy during the afternoons with south winds in 15
to 25 mph and gusty range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Scattered showers will continue to develop through 08-12Z. A
trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies with
light south to southwest winds becoming south 10-20kt in the
afternoon. At KHYS a weak cold front will push across with light
and variable winds becoming northeasterly at 5-15kt after 17Z. VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  70 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse







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