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000
FXUS63 KDDC 052015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS WESTERLY
FLOW AND IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WILL EXIST WILL
STAY CLOSE OR GO A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NMM BOTH HINT AT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
OVERDONE GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND.

THE 12Z NAM SURFACE SNOW DEPTH EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD MORE SNOW
COVER PRESENT THAN WHAT REALLY WILL BE GIVEN THE POOR VERIFICATION
BETWEEN THE 12Z THURSDAY MODEL SNOW COVER AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THIS ERROR AND THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. A WEAK
LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT HAVE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT EXCEPT A WIND SHIFT. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, HOWEVER, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE MARGINAL RH`S AND WEAK WINDS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER AND WARMER. WILL
SEE THE MOST PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING
THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS ABOVE GUIDANCE FROM THE SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS
WERE TRENDING POSITIVE FROM THE BASELINE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG
THE WARMTH WILL LAST. THE GFS IS NOW SLOWER WITH A FROPA AND KEEPS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LONGER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUING TO STICK AROUND LONGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH OUT WEST. A TREND TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TEMPORAL DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  57  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  60  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 052015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS WESTERLY
FLOW AND IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WILL EXIST WILL
STAY CLOSE OR GO A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NMM BOTH HINT AT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
OVERDONE GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND.

THE 12Z NAM SURFACE SNOW DEPTH EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD MORE SNOW
COVER PRESENT THAN WHAT REALLY WILL BE GIVEN THE POOR VERIFICATION
BETWEEN THE 12Z THURSDAY MODEL SNOW COVER AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THIS ERROR AND THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. A WEAK
LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT HAVE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT EXCEPT A WIND SHIFT. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, HOWEVER, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE MARGINAL RH`S AND WEAK WINDS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER AND WARMER. WILL
SEE THE MOST PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING
THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS ABOVE GUIDANCE FROM THE SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS
WERE TRENDING POSITIVE FROM THE BASELINE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG
THE WARMTH WILL LAST. THE GFS IS NOW SLOWER WITH A FROPA AND KEEPS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LONGER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUING TO STICK AROUND LONGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH OUT WEST. A TREND TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TEMPORAL DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  57  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  60  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 051942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS WESTERLY
FLOW AND IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WILL EXIST WILL
STAY CLOSE OR GO A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NMM BOTH HINT AT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
OVERDONE GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND.

THE 12Z NAM SURFACE SNOW DEPTH EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD MORE SNOW
COVER PRESENT THAN WHAT REALLY WILL BE GIVEN THE POOR VERIFICATION
BETWEEN THE 12Z THURSDAY MODEL SNOW COVER AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THIS ERROR AND THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  59  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  60  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS WESTERLY
FLOW AND IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WILL EXIST WILL
STAY CLOSE OR GO A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NMM BOTH HINT AT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
OVERDONE GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND.

THE 12Z NAM SURFACE SNOW DEPTH EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD MORE SNOW
COVER PRESENT THAN WHAT REALLY WILL BE GIVEN THE POOR VERIFICATION
BETWEEN THE 12Z THURSDAY MODEL SNOW COVER AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THIS ERROR AND THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  59  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  60  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 051720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 12Z THURSDAY A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER, WEAKER, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. FURTHER WEST AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND EXTENDED
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 250MB JET STRETCHED FROM
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  21  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  20  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  22  59  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  22  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  42  21  59  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 12Z THURSDAY A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER, WEAKER, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. FURTHER WEST AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND EXTENDED
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 250MB JET STRETCHED FROM
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  21  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  20  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  22  59  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  22  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  42  21  59  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 051101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
501 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO
15KT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  21  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  20  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  21  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 051101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
501 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO
15KT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  21  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  20  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  21  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  21  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  20  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  21  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  21  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  20  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  21  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 050740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  21  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  20  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  21  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  21  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  20  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  21  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 050716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  20  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  19  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  21  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  21  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  21  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  20  55  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 050716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  20  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  19  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  21  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  21  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  21  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  20  55  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  20  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  19  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  21  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  21  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  21  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  20  55  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 050716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  20  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  19  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  21  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  21  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  21  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  20  55  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050532
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1132 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050532
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1132 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 042300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT AFTER 15-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 042300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT AFTER 15-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 042300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT AFTER 15-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 042103
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 042103
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 042038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 042038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 042038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 042038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT
FROM AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO
HE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RELEGATE PERIODIC SNOW PRODUCING  WAVES
TOT HE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AROUND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PREVAILING  WEST OR SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER BROAD UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THE
WHOLE SYSTEM IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE FAVORING AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO MID
WEEK, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES . THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS
WELL ADVERTISED INTO THE 60S BY THE GFS MOS, WHICH COLD EASILY
TRANSLATE INTO 70 DEGREE WEATHER ON THE MORE FAVORABLE DRY DOWNSLOPE
DAY OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, FOR THE WEEKEND WE USED THE  BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR THE TEMPERATURES  FORECAST AS IT HAS A BETTER
RECENT TRACK RECORD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE ALSO USING THE MODEL
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27   8  42  20 /  80  10   0   0
GCK  27   7  42  19 /  70  10   0   0
EHA  24  12  43  21 /  60  10   0   0
LBL  26  10  43  21 /  80  10   0   0
HYS  32   6  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
P28  29  11  41  20 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT
FROM AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO
HE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RELEGATE PERIODIC SNOW PRODUCING  WAVES
TOT HE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AROUND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PREVAILING  WEST OR SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER BROAD UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THE
WHOLE SYSTEM IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE FAVORING AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO MID
WEEK, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES . THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS
WELL ADVERTISED INTO THE 60S BY THE GFS MOS, WHICH COLD EASILY
TRANSLATE INTO 70 DEGREE WEATHER ON THE MORE FAVORABLE DRY DOWNSLOPE
DAY OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, FOR THE WEEKEND WE USED THE  BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR THE TEMPERATURES  FORECAST AS IT HAS A BETTER
RECENT TRACK RECORD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE ALSO USING THE MODEL
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27   8  42  20 /  80  10   0   0
GCK  27   7  42  19 /  70  10   0   0
EHA  24  12  43  21 /  60  10   0   0
LBL  26  10  43  21 /  80  10   0   0
HYS  32   6  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
P28  29  11  41  20 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 041018
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT
FROM AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO
HE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RELEGATE PERIODIC SNOW PRODUCING  WAVES
TOT HE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AROUND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PREVAILING  WEST OR SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER BROAD UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THE
WHOLE SYSTEM IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE FAVORING AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO MID
WEEK, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES . THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS
WELL ADVERTISED INTO THE 60S BY THE GFS MOS, WHICH COLD EASILY
TRANSLATE INTO 70 DEGREE WEATHER ON THE MORE FAVORABLE DRY DOWNSLOPE
DAY OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, FOR THE WEEKEND WE USED THE  BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR THE TEMPERATURES  FORECAST AS IT HAS A BETTER
RECENT TRACK RECORD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE ALSO USING THE MODEL
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27   8  42  20 /  80  10   0   0
GCK  24   7  42  19 /  70  10   0   0
EHA  24  12  43  21 /  60  10   0   0
LBL  26  10  43  21 /  80  10   0   0
HYS  32   6  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
P28  27  11  41  20 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ045-
046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041018
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT
FROM AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO
HE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RELEGATE PERIODIC SNOW PRODUCING  WAVES
TOT HE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AROUND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PREVAILING  WEST OR SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER BROAD UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THE
WHOLE SYSTEM IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE FAVORING AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO MID
WEEK, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES . THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS
WELL ADVERTISED INTO THE 60S BY THE GFS MOS, WHICH COLD EASILY
TRANSLATE INTO 70 DEGREE WEATHER ON THE MORE FAVORABLE DRY DOWNSLOPE
DAY OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, FOR THE WEEKEND WE USED THE  BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR THE TEMPERATURES  FORECAST AS IT HAS A BETTER
RECENT TRACK RECORD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE ALSO USING THE MODEL
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27   8  42  20 /  80  10   0   0
GCK  24   7  42  19 /  70  10   0   0
EHA  24  12  43  21 /  60  10   0   0
LBL  26  10  43  21 /  80  10   0   0
HYS  32   6  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
P28  27  11  41  20 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ045-
046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 041018
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT
FROM AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO
HE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RELEGATE PERIODIC SNOW PRODUCING  WAVES
TOT HE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AROUND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PREVAILING  WEST OR SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER BROAD UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THE
WHOLE SYSTEM IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE FAVORING AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO MID
WEEK, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES . THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS
WELL ADVERTISED INTO THE 60S BY THE GFS MOS, WHICH COLD EASILY
TRANSLATE INTO 70 DEGREE WEATHER ON THE MORE FAVORABLE DRY DOWNSLOPE
DAY OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, FOR THE WEEKEND WE USED THE  BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR THE TEMPERATURES  FORECAST AS IT HAS A BETTER
RECENT TRACK RECORD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE ALSO USING THE MODEL
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27   8  42  20 /  80  10   0   0
GCK  24   7  42  19 /  70  10   0   0
EHA  24  12  43  21 /  60  10   0   0
LBL  26  10  43  21 /  80  10   0   0
HYS  32   6  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
P28  27  11  41  20 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ045-
046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041018
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN A BAND FROM LIBERAL THROUGH GREENSBURG
AND PRATT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BANDING HAS
OCCURRED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 800-700
MILLIBAR LAYER UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY
AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING
THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO
ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ZEROING IN ON THE IDEA OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR FROM AROUND LIBERAL THROUGH
GREENSBURG AND PRATT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING AROUND LIBERAL, WHERE 3-4 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST THAT MUCH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD PRATT. AREAS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT.

THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND DECREASING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT
FROM AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO
HE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RELEGATE PERIODIC SNOW PRODUCING  WAVES
TOT HE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AROUND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PREVAILING  WEST OR SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER BROAD UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THE
WHOLE SYSTEM IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE FAVORING AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO MID
WEEK, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES . THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS
WELL ADVERTISED INTO THE 60S BY THE GFS MOS, WHICH COLD EASILY
TRANSLATE INTO 70 DEGREE WEATHER ON THE MORE FAVORABLE DRY DOWNSLOPE
DAY OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, FOR THE WEEKEND WE USED THE  BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR THE TEMPERATURES  FORECAST AS IT HAS A BETTER
RECENT TRACK RECORD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE ALSO USING THE MODEL
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27   8  42  20 /  80  10   0   0
GCK  24   7  42  19 /  70  10   0   0
EHA  24  12  43  21 /  60  10   0   0
LBL  26  10  43  21 /  80  10   0   0
HYS  32   6  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
P28  27  11  41  20 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ045-
046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040553
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-
062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040553
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-
062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040553
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-
062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040553
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-
062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032343
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
06-08Z WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT. THE SNOW
WILL THEN TAPER TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY 15-18Z AS THE
UPWARD LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS DECREASES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032343
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
06-08Z WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT. THE SNOW
WILL THEN TAPER TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY 15-18Z AS THE
UPWARD LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS DECREASES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032343
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
06-08Z WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT. THE SNOW
WILL THEN TAPER TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY 15-18Z AS THE
UPWARD LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS DECREASES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032343
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
06-08Z WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT. THE SNOW
WILL THEN TAPER TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY 15-18Z AS THE
UPWARD LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS DECREASES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BECAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  50  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  50  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  50  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BECAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  50  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  50  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  50  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BECAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  50  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  50  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  50  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BECAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  50  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  50  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  50  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031225
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDED ACROSS THE ARE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT FROM PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A TREND OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SET IN
LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
ACROSS THE GCK AND DDC TAF SITES AFTER 09 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  45  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  49  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  48  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031225
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDED ACROSS THE ARE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT FROM PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A TREND OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SET IN
LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
ACROSS THE GCK AND DDC TAF SITES AFTER 09 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  45  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  49  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  48  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031225
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDED ACROSS THE ARE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT FROM PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A TREND OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SET IN
LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
ACROSS THE GCK AND DDC TAF SITES AFTER 09 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  45  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  49  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  48  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031225
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDED ACROSS THE ARE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT FROM PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A TREND OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SET IN
LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
ACROSS THE GCK AND DDC TAF SITES AFTER 09 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  45  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  49  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  48  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030858
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...LONG TERM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030858
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...LONG TERM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030849
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
MARCH INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE
ENTIRE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS
RETURN SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH
MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030849
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
MARCH INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE
ENTIRE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS
RETURN SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH
MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030849
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
MARCH INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE
ENTIRE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS
RETURN SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH
MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030849
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
MARCH INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE
ENTIRE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS
RETURN SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH
MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030541
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  45  15  27 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  60  60
HYS  28  41  12  27 /  10  10  20  20
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030541
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  45  15  27 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  60  60
HYS  28  41  12  27 /  10  10  20  20
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030541
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  45  15  27 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  60  60
HYS  28  41  12  27 /  10  10  20  20
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030541
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  45  15  27 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  60  60
HYS  28  41  12  27 /  10  10  20  20
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022325
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS AOA005 AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  45  15  27 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  60  60
HYS  31  41  12  27 /  10  10  20  20
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 022325
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS AOA005 AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  45  15  27 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  60  60
HYS  31  41  12  27 /  10  10  20  20
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022148
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  45  15  27 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  50  20
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  31  41  12  27 /  10  10  30  10
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022148
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  45  15  27 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  50  20
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  31  41  12  27 /  10  10  30  10
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022148
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  45  15  27 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  50  20
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  31  41  12  27 /  10  10  30  10
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT




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