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000
FXUS63 KDDC 010527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS.
THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BOTH DDC AND HYS
TERMINALS, THUS HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS LINE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AT
BOTH TERMINALS. OTHER THAN THAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT LIGHTER AT GCK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH NORTH
WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (06Z
THURSDAY).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  68  39  57 /  50  10  30  20
GCK  42  67  36  56 /  40  10  40  20
EHA  43  68  37  56 /  10  10  40  20
LBL  45  69  39  58 /  10  10  30  20
HYS  44  67  38  57 /  50  10  30  10
P28  52  70  44  59 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS.
THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BOTH DDC AND HYS
TERMINALS, THUS HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS LINE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AT
BOTH TERMINALS. OTHER THAN THAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT LIGHTER AT GCK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH NORTH
WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (06Z
THURSDAY).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  68  39  57 /  50  10  30  20
GCK  42  67  36  56 /  40  10  40  20
EHA  43  68  37  56 /  10  10  40  20
LBL  45  69  39  58 /  10  10  30  20
HYS  44  67  38  57 /  50  10  30  10
P28  52  70  44  59 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 312302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /   0  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 312302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /   0  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 312302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /   0  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311920
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311920
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311920
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311920
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATE FIRE WX...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATE FIRE WX...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  66 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  66 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /  10  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  66 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  54  89  46 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  82  51  89  42 /   0   0  40  40
EHA  80  51  86  43 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  82  52  89  45 /  10   0  30  10
HYS  83  53  86  44 /   0   0  40  50
P28  83  55  87  52 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  54  89  46 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  82  51  89  42 /   0   0  40  40
EHA  80  51  86  43 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  82  52  89  45 /  10   0  30  10
HYS  83  53  86  44 /   0   0  40  50
P28  83  55  87  52 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311201
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TIMEFRAME AT ALL TAF
SITES, HOWEVER FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF DDC AS THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADS
NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  52  86  46 /  10  10  30  20
GCK  81  49  87  42 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  82  49  86  43 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  82  49  88  45 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  79  51  85  44 /   0  10  30  30
P28  84  55  86  52 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311201
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TIMEFRAME AT ALL TAF
SITES, HOWEVER FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF DDC AS THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADS
NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  52  86  46 /  10  10  30  20
GCK  81  49  87  42 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  82  49  86  43 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  82  49  88  45 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  79  51  85  44 /   0  10  30  30
P28  84  55  86  52 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 311201
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TIMEFRAME AT ALL TAF
SITES, HOWEVER FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF DDC AS THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADS
NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  52  86  46 /  10  10  30  20
GCK  81  49  87  42 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  82  49  86  43 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  82  49  88  45 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  79  51  85  44 /   0  10  30  30
P28  84  55  86  52 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311201
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TIMEFRAME AT ALL TAF
SITES, HOWEVER FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF DDC AS THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADS
NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  52  86  46 /  10  10  30  20
GCK  81  49  87  42 /  10  10  30  20
EHA  82  49  86  43 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  82  49  88  45 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  79  51  85  44 /   0  10  30  30
P28  84  55  86  52 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  53  85  47 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  81  50  87  45 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  82  50  85  45 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  82  52  87  46 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  79  53  84  45 /   0  10  30  30
P28  84  55  84  53 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  53  85  47 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  81  50  87  45 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  82  50  85  45 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  82  52  87  46 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  79  53  84  45 /   0  10  30  30
P28  84  55  84  53 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310551
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  47  67 /  10  20  20   0
GCK  50  87  45  66 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  50  85  45  67 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  52  87  46  69 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  53  84  45  66 /  10  30  30  10
P28  55  84  53  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 310551
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  47  67 /  10  20  20   0
GCK  50  87  45  66 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  50  85  45  67 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  52  87  46  69 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  53  84  45  66 /  10  30  30  10
P28  55  84  53  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310551
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  47  67 /  10  20  20   0
GCK  50  87  45  66 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  50  85  45  67 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  52  87  46  69 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  53  84  45  66 /  10  30  30  10
P28  55  84  53  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310551
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  47  67 /  10  20  20   0
GCK  50  87  45  66 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  50  85  45  67 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  52  87  46  69 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  53  84  45  66 /  10  30  30  10
P28  55  84  53  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 302300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  38  83  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  43  83  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  39  80  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 302300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  38  83  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  43  83  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  39  80  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 302300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  38  83  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  43  83  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  39  80  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301946
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  38  83  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  43  83  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  39  80  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301946
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  38  83  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  43  83  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  39  80  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301946
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  38  83  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  43  83  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  39  80  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301946
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  38  83  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  43  83  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  39  80  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  39  82  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  44  82  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  42  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  40  79  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  46  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  39  82  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  44  82  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  42  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  40  79  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  46  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  39  82  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  44  82  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  42  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  40  79  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  46  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  39  82  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  44  82  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  42  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  40  79  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  46  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 12Z MONDAY A +90 KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS UPPER JET
BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
BEING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  81  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  80  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 12Z MONDAY A +90 KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS UPPER JET
BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
BEING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  81  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  80  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 12Z MONDAY A +90 KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS UPPER JET
BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
BEING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  81  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  80  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING 14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S KNOTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS A
LEE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING 14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S KNOTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS A
LEE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING 14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S KNOTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS A
LEE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING 14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S KNOTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS A
LEE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300856
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM, AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT,
WITH DRIEST AIR INDICATED BY DEW POINTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 F IN THE
REGION FOCUSED UNDER THE HIGH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE  REGION WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE DODGE CITY CWA,
AND RELEGATED TO THIN HIGH CIRRUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON , CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300856
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM, AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT,
WITH DRIEST AIR INDICATED BY DEW POINTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 F IN THE
REGION FOCUSED UNDER THE HIGH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE  REGION WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE DODGE CITY CWA,
AND RELEGATED TO THIN HIGH CIRRUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON , CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300540
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  82  51  83 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  41  82  48  85 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  45  83  48  85 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  46  82  49  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  42  81  50  83 /   0  10  10  30
P28  47  83  53  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300540
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  82  51  83 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  41  82  48  85 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  45  83  48  85 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  46  82  49  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  42  81  50  83 /   0  10  10  30
P28  47  83  53  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300540
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  82  51  83 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  41  82  48  85 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  45  83  48  85 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  46  82  49  85 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  42  81  50  83 /   0  10  10  30
P28  47  83  53  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY. LOOK
FOR GUSTS TO NEAR OR AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS AT GARDEN
CITY COULD DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  82 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  45  83 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  46  82 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  81 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  83 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 292320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY. LOOK
FOR GUSTS TO NEAR OR AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS AT GARDEN
CITY COULD DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  82 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  45  83 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  46  82 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  81 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  83 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY. LOOK
FOR GUSTS TO NEAR OR AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS AT GARDEN
CITY COULD DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  82 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  45  83 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  46  82 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  81 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  83 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 292320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY. LOOK
FOR GUSTS TO NEAR OR AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS AT GARDEN
CITY COULD DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  82 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  45  83 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  46  82 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  81 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  83 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  82 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  45  83 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  46  82 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  81 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  83 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  82 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  45  83 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  46  82 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  81 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  83 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  82 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  45  83 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  46  82 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  81 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  83 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE TODAY.
BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME
AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE TODAY.
BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME
AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE TODAY.
BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME
AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON WHERE THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL
REACH THE 800MB LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE
NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 3C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE 800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE TODAY.
BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME
AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BASED ON
WHERE THESE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES DURING THE DAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL REACH THE 800MB
LEVEL. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3C IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THESE
800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE
TODAY. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SOME AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA NOT BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE
TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BASED ON
WHERE THESE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES DURING THE DAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL REACH THE 800MB
LEVEL. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3C IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THESE
800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE
TODAY. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SOME AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA NOT BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE
TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BASED ON
WHERE THESE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES DURING THE DAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL REACH THE 800MB
LEVEL. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3C IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THESE
800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE
TODAY. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SOME AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA NOT BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE
TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291826
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BASED ON
WHERE THESE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES DURING THE DAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL REACH THE 800MB
LEVEL. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3C IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THESE
800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE
TODAY. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SOME AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA NOT BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE
TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291703
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
SURFACE AND 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN IOWA. 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOT 850MB WINDS WERE OBSERVED
NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SUNDAY
RANGED FROM 21C SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AT AMARILLO TO +8C NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  70  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  71  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  68  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291703
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
SURFACE AND 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN IOWA. 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOT 850MB WINDS WERE OBSERVED
NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SUNDAY
RANGED FROM 21C SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AT AMARILLO TO +8C NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  70  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  71  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  68  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291703
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
SURFACE AND 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN IOWA. 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOT 850MB WINDS WERE OBSERVED
NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SUNDAY
RANGED FROM 21C SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AT AMARILLO TO +8C NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  70  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  71  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  68  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291703
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
SURFACE AND 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN IOWA. 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOT 850MB WINDS WERE OBSERVED
NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SUNDAY
RANGED FROM 21C SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AT AMARILLO TO +8C NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  70  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  71  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  68  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
556 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL 3 LOCAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH WINDY BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
556 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL 3 LOCAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH WINDY BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
556 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL 3 LOCAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH WINDY BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
556 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL 3 LOCAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH WINDY BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290822
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290822
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290641
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
141 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290641
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
141 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290641
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
141 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290641
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
141 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTIER FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
ADDED LLWS TO THE TAFS BY LATE EVENING AS 50-55 KNOT WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 1-2KFT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY AROUND 11-13Z. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 35-40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND
DODGE CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  75  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  37  76  42  81 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  40  76  44  80 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  40  76  45  80 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  37  76  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  40  74  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTIER FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
ADDED LLWS TO THE TAFS BY LATE EVENING AS 50-55 KNOT WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 1-2KFT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY AROUND 11-13Z. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 35-40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND
DODGE CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  75  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  37  76  42  81 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  40  76  44  80 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  40  76  45  80 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  37  76  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  40  74  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTIER FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
ADDED LLWS TO THE TAFS BY LATE EVENING AS 50-55 KNOT WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 1-2KFT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY AROUND 11-13Z. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 35-40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND
DODGE CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  75  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  37  76  42  81 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  40  76  44  80 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  40  76  45  80 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  37  76  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  40  74  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTIER FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
ADDED LLWS TO THE TAFS BY LATE EVENING AS 50-55 KNOT WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 1-2KFT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY AROUND 11-13Z. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 35-40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND
DODGE CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  75  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  37  76  42  81 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  40  76  44  80 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  40  76  45  80 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  37  76  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  40  74  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD





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