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000
FXUS63 KDDC 011803
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
103 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Light to moderate rain showers will continue across the southern
half of the CWA this evening spreading northeastward overnight.
This is due to a weak shortwave moving over the area. Otherwise
expect mostly cloudy skies through tonight. These showers are
expected to diminish by sunrise tomorrow with decreasing
cloudiness throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
from a northerly direction through tomorrow as a dome of high
pressure sits across the area. Below normal temperatures continue
with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s across portions of
west central Kansas to lower 40s across portions of south central
Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. Ecmwf model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

MVFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon into tonight as a
weak disturbance moves through the area. They only exception to
this will be at the HYS terminal where VFR conditions will be
possible overnight. A few showers will be possible across the DDC
and GCK terminals this evening but confidence is low and have only
placed VCSH at this time. Winds will generally be from the north
gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon then decrease to below 10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  38  63  39 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  52  38  63  38 /  30  30  10   0
EHA  48  37  61  38 /  70  50  10  10
LBL  51  39  62  37 /  70  50  10  10
HYS  52  39  62  39 /  10  20  10   0
P28  60  42  64  41 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011743
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.

Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon temperatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. Ecmwf model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

MVFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon into tonight as a
weak disturbance moves through the area. They only exception to
this will be at the HYS terminal where VFR conditions will be
possible overnight. A few showers will be possible across the DDC
and GCK terminals this evening but confidence is low and have only
placed VCSH at this time. Winds will generally be from the north
gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon then decrease to below 10
knots this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  38  63  39 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  52  38  63  38 /  20  30  10   0
EHA  48  37  61  38 /  50  50  10  10
LBL  51  39  62  37 /  40  40  10  10
HYS  52  39  62  39 /  10  20  10   0
P28  60  42  64  41 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011743
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.

Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon temperatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. Ecmwf model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

MVFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon into tonight as a
weak disturbance moves through the area. They only exception to
this will be at the HYS terminal where VFR conditions will be
possible overnight. A few showers will be possible across the DDC
and GCK terminals this evening but confidence is low and have only
placed VCSH at this time. Winds will generally be from the north
gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon then decrease to below 10
knots this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  38  63  39 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  52  38  63  38 /  20  30  10   0
EHA  48  37  61  38 /  50  50  10  10
LBL  51  39  62  37 /  40  40  10  10
HYS  52  39  62  39 /  10  20  10   0
P28  60  42  64  41 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011150
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.

Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon temperatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. ECWMF model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

IFR CIGS will raise to MVFR with daytime heating. Winds will stay
out of the north at 15 kts today then 10 kts tonight as weak
surface high pressure builds in. There is a small chance of rain
as an upper level disturbance approaches but visbys should remain
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  39  61  39 /  40  40  10  10
GCK  52  37  60  38 /  40  40  10   0
EHA  48  35  57  38 /  70  40  10  10
LBL  50  37  58  37 /  60  40  10  10
HYS  52  38  60  39 /  20  20  10   0
P28  60  42  63  41 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.

Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon tempeatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. ECWMF model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Organized closed cyclone over Arizona this morning will weaken
considerably to an open wave as it arrives in SW KS this TAF
period. Consensus of short term models spreads IFR/MVFR overcast
stratus cigs across all airports through Sunday morning. MVFR
stratus expected to persist the majority of Sunday. After 15z
Sunday, north winds increase with gusts near 30 kts. Expect -SHRA
to spread into SW KS by 00z Mon, spreading NE through 06z Monday.
Rainfall will be light, with little or no impact on aviation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  39  61  39 /  40  40  10  10
GCK  52  37  60  38 /  40  40  20   0
EHA  48  35  57  38 /  70  40  10  10
LBL  49  37  58  37 /  60  40  10  10
HYS  52  38  60  39 /  20  20  10   0
P28  60  42  63  41 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.

Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon tempeatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Monday...Dry and milder, but cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
keep temperatures below early May normals. Afternoon max temps in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday...Weak shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft passes
through western Kansas. No impacts expected. Partly to mostly
sunny and milder. Despite the N/NW flow, 850 mb temperatures
moderate, allowing afternoon temperatures to return closer to
normal in the upper 60s to near 70.

Wednesday and Thursday...Flow becomes highly meridional across
North America, with a strong high pressure ridge axis establishing
along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. Afternoon temperatures
warm well into the 70s to near 80, with few clouds and light
winds.

Friday...High pressure ridge axis crosses SW KS during the
morning. Strong omega block develops again over the U.S., with
anchor lows in central California and the Delmarva. ECWMF model
suggests significant warming on Friday, with highs well into the
80s. Overnight low temperatures will also warm noticeably during
this time frame, as S/SE flow and moisture transport begin.

Saturday...Little synoptic movement across the nation, as flow
becomes highly blocked. Western anchor low of the omega block will
be in no hurry to move eastward, but medium range models still
suggest leading jet energy ahead of this cyclone will interact
with the dryline to increase thunderstorm potential by next
weekend.

Next Sunday...00z ECMWF suggests a significant severe weather
event is possible across Kansas, with strong cyclogenesis across
NW Kansas and an active dryline. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Organized closed cyclone over Arizona this morning will weaken
considerably to an open wave as it arrives in SW KS this TAF
period. Consensus of short term models spreads IFR/MVFR overcast
stratus cigs across all airports through Sunday morning. MVFR
stratus expected to persist the majority of Sunday. After 15z
Sunday, north winds increase with gusts near 30 kts. Expect -SHRA
to spread into SW KS by 00z Mon, spreading NE through 06z Monday.
Rainfall will be light, with little or no impact on aviation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  39  61  39 /  40  40  10  10
GCK  52  37  60  38 /  40  40  20   0
EHA  48  35  57  38 /  70  40  10  10
LBL  49  37  58  37 /  60  40  10  10
HYS  52  38  60  39 /  20  20  10   0
P28  60  42  63  41 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010550
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated Short Term...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Next closed cyclone to affect SW KS weather looks quite healthy on
IR satellite imagery across Arizona this morning, with ongoing
convection SW of the Four Corners. All models have been
consistent forecasting this system to weaken dramatically as it
arrives in SW KS through this evening, degenerating into an open
shortwave. In fact, the 00z GFS run has largely dried up its QPF
fields and is forecasting little if any rainfall in SW KS this
afternoon and this evening. NAM/ECMWF are more optimistic
spreading light rain showers SW to NE across SW KS through this
evening, and to keep forecast continuity these wetter solutions
were used in the grids. Best opportunity for measurable rainfall
will be in the SW zones, nearest the approaching weakening system.
That said, even assuming the wettest solutions verify, most
locations will tally less than 0.20 inch of rainfall, paling in
comparison to recent rains.

Sunday will not be a very pleasant beginning to May. Low stratus
will persist most of the day, with sunshine minimal. With 850 mb
temperatures holding near a chilly +2C, and limited insolation,
afternoon tempeatures will struggle into the lower 50s, with
some SW locales holding in the upper 40s. This is a full 20
degrees below normal for the first day of May. North winds gusting
to near 30 mph will add to the chill, producing wind chills in the
30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Organized closed cyclone over Arizona this morning will weaken
considerably to an open wave as it arrives in SW KS this TAF
period. Consensus of short term models spreads IFR/MVFR overcast
stratus cigs across all airports through Sunday morning. MVFR
stratus expected to persist the majority of Sunday. After 15z
Sunday, north winds increase with gusts near 30 kts. Expect -SHRA
to spread into SW KS by 00z Mon, spreading NE through 06z Monday.
Rainfall will be light, with little or no impact on aviation.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  51  39  60 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  37  52  37  60 /  10  40  40  20
EHA  37  48  35  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  38  49  37  59 /  20  60  40  20
HYS  38  52  38  61 /  10  10  30  20
P28  42  60  42  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Organized closed cyclone over Arizona this morning will weaken
considerably to an open wave as it arrives in SW KS this TAF
period. Consensus of short term models spreads IFR/MVFR overcast
stratus cigs across all airports through Sunday morning. MVFR
stratus expected to persist the majority of Sunday. After 15z
Sunday, north winds increase with gusts near 30 kts. Expect -SHRA
to spread into SW KS by 00z Mon, spreading NE through 06z Monday.
Rainfall will be light, with little or no impact on aviation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  55  40  60 /  10  40  50  20
GCK  37  53  38  60 /  10  40  50  20
EHA  37  51  38  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  38  53  40  59 /  20  50  40  20
HYS  38  54  39  61 /  10  20  40  20
P28  42  61  44  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 010500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Organized closed cyclone over Arizona this morning will weaken
considerably to an open wave as it arrives in SW KS this TAF
period. Consensus of short term models spreads IFR/MVFR overcast
stratus cigs across all airports through Sunday morning. MVFR
stratus expected to persist the majority of Sunday. After 15z
Sunday, north winds increase with gusts near 30 kts. Expect -SHRA
to spread into SW KS by 00z Mon, spreading NE through 06z Monday.
Rainfall will be light, with little or no impact on aviation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  55  40  60 /  10  40  50  20
GCK  37  53  38  60 /  10  40  50  20
EHA  37  51  38  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  38  53  40  59 /  20  50  40  20
HYS  38  54  39  61 /  10  20  40  20
P28  42  61  44  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 302334
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A secondary vort max will move across western Kansas tonight with
increasing mid level cloudiness, then as another system
approaches, cigs may lower to MVFR after 15-18Z. Downslope winds
around 10-14kt will prevail tonight, then increase to more
northerly at 15-25kt after 12-15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  55  40  60 /  10  40  50  20
GCK  37  53  38  60 /  10  40  50  20
EHA  37  51  38  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  39  53  40  59 /  20  50  40  20
HYS  39  54  39  61 /  10  20  40  20
P28  43  61  44  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301957
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
257 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with
cloud ceilings rising above 030 later this afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest gusting to around 20 knots at
times.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  55  40  60 /  10  40  50  20
GCK  37  53  38  60 /  10  40  50  20
EHA  37  51  38  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  39  53  40  59 /  20  50  40  20
HYS  39  54  39  61 /  10  20  40  20
P28  43  61  44  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301738
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with
cloud ceilings rising above 030 later this afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest gusting to around 20 knots at
times.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  54  40 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  40  50
EHA  57  37  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  53  41 /  10  20  50  50
HYS  52  39  53  39 /  20  10  20  50
P28  65  43  61  43 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301717
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with
cloud ceilings rising above 030 later this afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest gusting to around 20 knots at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  54  40 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  40  50
EHA  57  37  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  53  41 /  10  20  50  50
HYS  52  39  53  39 /  20  10  20  50
P28  65  43  61  43 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301215
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Northwesterly surface winds will prevail in the wake of an upper
level low and surface low pressure system. The highest winds will
be with daytime heating. IFR stratus will gradually lift this
morning but will likely fill back in later in the morning at a
higher level (MVFR) due to mixing. VFR CIGS are expected to
return this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some stratus
may return near the end of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  55  40 /  10  10  30  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  30  50
EHA  57  38  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  54  41 /  10  10  50  50
HYS  52  40  53  39 /  30  20  10  50
P28  65  43  62  43 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-
061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301215
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Northwesterly surface winds will prevail in the wake of an upper
level low and surface low pressure system. The highest winds will
be with daytime heating. IFR stratus will gradually lift this
morning but will likely fill back in later in the morning at a
higher level (MVFR) due to mixing. VFR CIGS are expected to
return this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some stratus
may return near the end of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  55  40 /  10  10  30  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  30  50
EHA  57  38  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  54  41 /  10  10  50  50
HYS  52  40  53  39 /  30  20  10  50
P28  65  43  62  43 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-
061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300740
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  55  40 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  20  10  40  50
EHA  57  38  51  38 /  10  20  50  50
LBL  60  39  54  41 /  10  10  50  50
HYS  52  40  53  39 /  30  20  40  50
P28  65  43  62  43 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300540
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  58  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  55  37  52 /  80  20  10  30
EHA  34  57  38  52 /  20  10  20  40
LBL  36  60  39  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  52  40  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  65  43  61 /  70   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  80  10  10  30
EHA  34  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  36  58  38  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  53  41  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  80  10  10  30
EHA  34  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  36  58  38  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  53  41  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 292311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers and areas of IFR conditions, will gradually end from
west to east after 02-04Z at KDDC and KGCK, and after 06Z at
KHYS. MVFR conditions are mostly forecast after that as an upper
level wave moves northeast and downslope winds move into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  70  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  70  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  37  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  41  53  41  53 /  90  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Kruse





000
FXUS63 KDDC 292311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers and areas of IFR conditions, will gradually end from
west to east after 02-04Z at KDDC and KGCK, and after 06Z at
KHYS. MVFR conditions are mostly forecast after that as an upper
level wave moves northeast and downslope winds move into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  70  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  70  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  37  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  41  53  41  53 /  90  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Kruse





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291933
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  40  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  30  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  38  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  42  53  41  53 /  70  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291933
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  40  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  30  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  38  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  42  53  41  53 /  70  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291716
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

At 12z Friday a 700mb and 500mb trough/low was located near the
four corner2 region with a 250mb jet extending from the base of
this upper low northeast into eastern New Mexico. Another upper
level trough was located off the British Columbia coast. An 850mb
baroclinic zone was evident from the panhandle of Texas to
northeast Topeka. A surface stationary front extended from eastern
New Mexico to central Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  56  39 / 100 100  10  10
GCK  45  35  52  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  43  33  55  36 / 100  20  10  10
LBL  47  36  58  38 / 100  20  10  10
HYS  45  38  53  41 / 100 100  30  20
P28  52  43  64  44 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this
morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt
fashion this afternoon and tonight. Surface low pressure over west
Texas is expected to move into southern Kansas by tonight.
Plentiful low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was
available. Elevated CAPE north of the front was resulting in
widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which was close to being
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Very poor flying conditions will continue through 06z Sat, with
widespread RA, occasional -TSRA, and IFR/LIFR cigs in stratus.
Reduced vis in BR/RA/FG. Strong NE winds will continue as well
through 00z, gusting near 30 kts. Very gradual improvements in
flight categories expected to begin around 06z Sat, as closed low
begins to lift away from SW KS and rain ends. Sfc winds back NW
behind the departing storm system, with MVFR stratus persisting
well into Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  59  39 / 100  70  10  10
GCK  43  35  56  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  47  33  56  36 /  80  30  10  10
LBL  49  36  58  38 /  90  30  10  10
HYS  48  38  57  39 /  90  90  30  20
P28  59  43  66  44 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this
morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt
fashion this afternoon and tonight. Surface low pressure over west
Texas is expected to move into southern Kansas by tonight.
Plentiful low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was
available. Elevated CAPE north of the front was resulting in
widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which was close to being
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Very poor flying conditions will continue through 06z Sat, with
widespread RA, occasional -TSRA, and IFR/LIFR cigs in stratus.
Reduced vis in BR/RA/FG. Strong NE winds will continue as well
through 00z, gusting near 30 kts. Very gradual improvements in
flight categories expected to begin around 06z Sat, as closed low
begins to lift away from SW KS and rain ends. Sfc winds back NW
behind the departing storm system, with MVFR stratus persisting
well into Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  59  39 / 100  70  10  10
GCK  43  35  56  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  47  33  56  36 /  80  30  10  10
LBL  49  36  58  38 /  90  30  10  10
HYS  48  38  57  39 /  90  90  30  20
P28  59  43  66  44 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290828
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
328 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this
morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt
fashion this afternoon and tonight. Surface low pressure over west
Texas is expected to move into southern Kansas by tonight.
Plentiful low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was
available. Elevated CAPE north of the front was resulting in
widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which was close to being
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Upslope flow and moisture transport above the surface will lead to
LIFR CIGS by 12z and which will persist through the period.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as an upper
level disturbance approaches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  37  59  39 / 100  70  10  10
GCK  43  35  56  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  43  33  56  36 /  80  30  10  10
LBL  47  36  58  38 /  90  30  10  10
HYS  48  38  57  39 /  90  90  30  20
P28  58  43  66  44 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290550
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late today near a
surface boundary that will extend from southeast Colorado into the
Panhandle of Texas. Once developed these storms will spread
northeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are then expected to continue and even expand across
western and south central Kansas during the overnight hours as
850mb warm air advection improves with 700mb to 500mb lapse rates
of 7 to 8C/km.

Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms can be expected during
the day on Friday as a 400mb potential vorticity anomaly,
associated with an upper level jet streak. approaches from the
southwest. Based on the expected cloud cover and widespread
precipitation on Friday will continue to favor highs only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s for all but south central Kansas. In south
central Kansas will trend towards or even undercut the coolest
guidance for highs.

Preciptable water Friday afternoon from the GFS and NAM is
forecast to be around 1 inch so although severe weather is not
anticipated at this time there will be a chance for moderate or
even a period of heavy rainfall with a few of these storms as the
upper level dynamics improve, especially across north central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Late Friday night/early Saturday widespread showers and
thunderstorms will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast
as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. A surface ridge
axis, cooler air, and low clouds will then begin to move into
southwest Kansas. Given the cooling expected in the 0 to 0.5km
level from the NAM and GFS it does appears lows in the 30s will be
likely for most of western Kansas by early Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be in the 40 to near 45 degree range in south
central Kansas.

A brief break in the precipitation will then develop during the
day on Saturday as one upper level system moves across Nebraska
and the next upper level system begins to dig into the southwest
United States. As this next system approaches southwest Kansas
late Sunday into early next week there will be another chance for
widespread precipitation.

As for temperatures....for Saturday did favor highs climbing back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s given that southwest Kansas has the
potential for more afternoon sun, at least early. Highs only in
the 50s are then expected from Sunday through early next week
given that a cool dome of high pressure at the surface is forecast
to settle into the Central Plains along the return of clouds and
precipitation. Lows will be mainly in the 30s.

By Tuesday this next round of precipitation is expected to be
exiting western Kansas so may need to monitor how quickly clouds
will exit Tuesday night. Lows falling back to near 30 for portions
of western Kansas will be possible if skies do clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Upslope flow and moisture transport above the surface will lead to
LIFR CIGS by 12z and which will persist through the period.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as an upper
level disturbance approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  49  37  60 /  90  90  70  10
GCK  43  44  35  58 / 100  90  60  10
EHA  43  45  34  59 /  80  80  30   0
LBL  46  48  37  61 /  80  80  40   0
HYS  42  48  40  56 /  80  90  80  20
P28  49  58  47  68 /  80  90  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 282303
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late today near a
surface boundary that will extend from southeast Colorado into the
Panhandle of Texas. Once developed these storms will spread
northeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are then expected to continue and even expand across
western and south central Kansas during the overnight hours as
850mb warm air advection improves with 700mb to 500mb lapse rates
of 7 to 8C/km.

Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms can be expected during
the day on Friday as a 400mb potential vorticity anomaly,
associated with an upper level jet streak. approaches from the
southwest. Based on the expected cloud cover and widespread
precipitation on Friday will continue to favor highs only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s for all but south central Kansas. In south
central Kansas will trend towards or even undercut the coolest
guidance for highs.

Preciptable water Friday afternoon from the GFS and NAM is
forecast to be around 1 inch so although severe weather is not
anticipated at this time there will be a chance for moderate or
even a period of heavy rainfall with a few of these storms as the
upper level dynamics improve, especially across north central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Late Friday night/early Saturday widespread showers and
thunderstorms will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast
as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. A surface ridge
axis, cooler air, and low clouds will then begin to move into
southwest Kansas. Given the cooling expected in the 0 to 0.5km
level from the NAM and GFS it does appears lows in the 30s will be
likely for most of western Kansas by early Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be in the 40 to near 45 degree range in south
central Kansas.

A brief break in the precipitation will then develop during the
day on Saturday as one upper level system moves across Nebraska
and the next upper level system begins to dig into the southwest
United States. As this next system approaches southwest Kansas
late Sunday into early next week there will be another chance for
widespread precipitation.

As for temperatures....for Saturday did favor highs climbing back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s given that southwest Kansas has the
potential for more afternoon sun, at least early. Highs only in
the 50s are then expected from Sunday through early next week
given that a cool dome of high pressure at the surface is forecast
to settle into the Central Plains along the return of clouds and
precipitation. Lows will be mainly in the 30s.

By Tuesday this next round of precipitation is expected to be
exiting western Kansas so may need to monitor how quickly clouds
will exit Tuesday night. Lows falling back to near 30 for portions
of western Kansas will be possible if skies do clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Flight conditions will decrease through the TAF pd. An upper level disturbance
approaching from the southwest will bring showers and thunderstorms
across the region through the overnight. Low cigs and limited visibility
in association with this activity will result in eventual LIFR/IFR flight
conditions. Winds will be NE/E 10-20 kt as the system passes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  53  40  60 /  90  90  70  10
GCK  44  49  38  58 / 100  90  60  10
EHA  44  54  37  59 /  80  80  30   0
LBL  47  55  39  61 /  80  80  40   0
HYS  42  49  41  56 /  80  90  80  20
P28  51  61  47  68 /  80  90  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 281940
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late today near a
surface boundary that will extend from southeast Colorado into the
Panhandle of Texas. Once developed these storms will spread
northeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are then expected to continue and even expand across
western and south central Kansas during the overnight hours as
850mb warm air advection improves with 700mb to 500mb lapse rates
of 7 to 8C/km.

Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms can be expected during
the day on Friday as a 400mb potential vorticity anomaly,
associated with an upper level jet streak. approaches from the
southwest. Based on the expected cloud cover and widespread
precipitation on Friday will continue to favor highs only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s for all but south central Kansas. In south
central Kansas will trend towards or even undercut the coolest
guidance for highs.

Preciptable water Friday afternoon from the GFS and NAM is
forecast to be around 1 inch so although severe weather is not
anticipated at this time there will be a chance for moderate or
even a period of heavy rainfall with a few of these storms as the
upper level dynamics improve, especially across north central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Late Friday night/early Saturday widespread showers and
thunderstorms will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast
as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. A surface ridge
axis, cooler air, and low clouds will then begin to move into
southwest Kansas. Given the cooling expected in the 0 to 0.5km
level from the NAM and GFS it does appears lows in the 30s will be
likely for most of western Kansas by early Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be in the 40 to near 45 degree range in south
central Kansas.

A brief break in the precipitation will then develop during the
day on Saturday as one upper level system moves across Nebraska
and the next upper level system begins to dig into the southwest
United States. As this next system approaches southwest Kansas
late Sunday into early next week there will be another chance for
widespread precipitation.

As for temperatures....for Saturday did favor highs climbing back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s given that southwest Kansas has the
potential for more afternoon sun, at least early. Highs only in
the 50s are then expected from Sunday through early next week
given that a cool dome of high pressure at the surface is forecast
to settle into the Central Plains along the return of clouds and
precipitation. Lows will be mainly in the 30s.

By Tuesday this next round of precipitation is expected to be
exiting western Kansas so may need to monitor how quickly clouds
will exit Tuesday night. Lows falling back to near 30 for portions
of western Kansas will be possible if skies do clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Clouds will thicken and lower late this afternoon and early
tonight as moisture and lift begins to improve across western
Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are currently expected to spread
into the DDC and GCK areas around 03z and then HYS after 06z.
This precipitation will continue to increase in coverage through
the overnight hours. As showers and thunderstorms increasing in
areal coverage overnight the ceilings are expected to lower into
the MVFR category between 06z and 09z. IFR/LIFR ceilings are then
expected to develop after 10z. Visibilities will also decrease
after 12z in the steadier and heavier showers. Winds will be
mainly easterly at 10 to 15 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  53  40  60 /  90  90  70  10
GCK  44  49  38  58 / 100  90  60  10
EHA  44  54  37  59 /  80  70  30   0
LBL  47  55  39  61 /  80  70  40   0
HYS  42  49  41  56 /  80  90  80  20
P28  51  61  47  68 /  80  90  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 281940
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late today near a
surface boundary that will extend from southeast Colorado into the
Panhandle of Texas. Once developed these storms will spread
northeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are then expected to continue and even expand across
western and south central Kansas during the overnight hours as
850mb warm air advection improves with 700mb to 500mb lapse rates
of 7 to 8C/km.

Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms can be expected during
the day on Friday as a 400mb potential vorticity anomaly,
associated with an upper level jet streak. approaches from the
southwest. Based on the expected cloud cover and widespread
precipitation on Friday will continue to favor highs only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s for all but south central Kansas. In south
central Kansas will trend towards or even undercut the coolest
guidance for highs.

Preciptable water Friday afternoon from the GFS and NAM is
forecast to be around 1 inch so although severe weather is not
anticipated at this time there will be a chance for moderate or
even a period of heavy rainfall with a few of these storms as the
upper level dynamics improve, especially across north central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Late Friday night/early Saturday widespread showers and
thunderstorms will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast
as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. A surface ridge
axis, cooler air, and low clouds will then begin to move into
southwest Kansas. Given the cooling expected in the 0 to 0.5km
level from the NAM and GFS it does appears lows in the 30s will be
likely for most of western Kansas by early Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be in the 40 to near 45 degree range in south
central Kansas.

A brief break in the precipitation will then develop during the
day on Saturday as one upper level system moves across Nebraska
and the next upper level system begins to dig into the southwest
United States. As this next system approaches southwest Kansas
late Sunday into early next week there will be another chance for
widespread precipitation.

As for temperatures....for Saturday did favor highs climbing back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s given that southwest Kansas has the
potential for more afternoon sun, at least early. Highs only in
the 50s are then expected from Sunday through early next week
given that a cool dome of high pressure at the surface is forecast
to settle into the Central Plains along the return of clouds and
precipitation. Lows will be mainly in the 30s.

By Tuesday this next round of precipitation is expected to be
exiting western Kansas so may need to monitor how quickly clouds
will exit Tuesday night. Lows falling back to near 30 for portions
of western Kansas will be possible if skies do clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Clouds will thicken and lower late this afternoon and early
tonight as moisture and lift begins to improve across western
Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are currently expected to spread
into the DDC and GCK areas around 03z and then HYS after 06z.
This precipitation will continue to increase in coverage through
the overnight hours. As showers and thunderstorms increasing in
areal coverage overnight the ceilings are expected to lower into
the MVFR category between 06z and 09z. IFR/LIFR ceilings are then
expected to develop after 10z. Visibilities will also decrease
after 12z in the steadier and heavier showers. Winds will be
mainly easterly at 10 to 15 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  53  40  60 /  90  90  70  10
GCK  44  49  38  58 / 100  90  60  10
EHA  44  54  37  59 /  80  70  30   0
LBL  47  55  39  61 /  80  70  40   0
HYS  42  49  41  56 /  80  90  80  20
P28  51  61  47  68 /  80  90  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert





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