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000
FXUS63 KDDC 281736
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

  ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO
BACKDOOR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES BEHIND YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE (WHICH WAS NOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA) WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COOL BY LATE JULY STANDARDS (UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
+20C). THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY, SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83F RANGE. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY WHERE MORE ABUNDANT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED.
WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POPS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED, LEADING TO MORE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
BOTH SUGGEST A RAMP-UP IN PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME, AND POPS WILL SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD MUCH COOLER AND WET IS IN PLACE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING, BUT
GENERALLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. REMARKABLE CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT
APPEARS IN THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE DAYS 2-3 TIME FRAME
(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY). AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS FLATTENED OUT BY THE UPPER JET, A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN GENERAL BY SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION ONGOING OR DEVELOPING
AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IDEA/SOLUTION HAS GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
MODELS, WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES. STRATIFORM RAINS WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY S VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT. WITH THIS PATTERN SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE AS
MUCH OF A THREAT AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED  SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AND
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60`S F THROUGH THE DAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLOW MODERATION BACK INTO THE
80S, WHICH ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
AUGUST. CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD
AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME MORE MUDDLED, HOWEVER WEAKLY STEERED
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE REGION SHOULD BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERRODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  64  75  62 /  20  80  80  90
GCK  84  64  75  61 /  20  80  80  90
EHA  79  65  80  61 /  60  40  70  90
LBL  80  65  76  62 /  20  60  70 100
HYS  89  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  90  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...DR/GLD








000
FXUS63 KDDC 281736
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

  ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO
BACKDOOR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES BEHIND YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE (WHICH WAS NOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA) WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COOL BY LATE JULY STANDARDS (UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
+20C). THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY, SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83F RANGE. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY WHERE MORE ABUNDANT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED.
WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POPS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED, LEADING TO MORE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
BOTH SUGGEST A RAMP-UP IN PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME, AND POPS WILL SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD MUCH COOLER AND WET IS IN PLACE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING, BUT
GENERALLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. REMARKABLE CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT
APPEARS IN THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE DAYS 2-3 TIME FRAME
(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY). AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS FLATTENED OUT BY THE UPPER JET, A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN GENERAL BY SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION ONGOING OR DEVELOPING
AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IDEA/SOLUTION HAS GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
MODELS, WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES. STRATIFORM RAINS WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY S VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT. WITH THIS PATTERN SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE AS
MUCH OF A THREAT AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED  SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AND
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60`S F THROUGH THE DAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLOW MODERATION BACK INTO THE
80S, WHICH ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
AUGUST. CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD
AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME MORE MUDDLED, HOWEVER WEAKLY STEERED
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE REGION SHOULD BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERRODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  64  75  62 /  20  80  80  90
GCK  84  64  75  61 /  20  80  80  90
EHA  79  65  80  61 /  60  40  70  90
LBL  80  65  76  62 /  20  60  70 100
HYS  89  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  90  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...DR/GLD









000
FXUS63 KDDC 281159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light surface winds will influence the area this afternoon in
response to high pressure sinking southward through the Central
Plains. Broken cloud decks will however remain in the VFR category.
A band of widely scattered showers will extend north to south at
around 50sm west of the GCK terminal for a few hours this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  75  62 /  10  80  80  90
GCK  86  64  75  61 /  10  80  80  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70  90
LBL  83  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  87  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 281159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light surface winds will influence the area this afternoon in
response to high pressure sinking southward through the Central
Plains. Broken cloud decks will however remain in the VFR category.
A band of widely scattered showers will extend north to south at
around 50sm west of the GCK terminal for a few hours this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  75  62 /  10  80  80  90
GCK  86  64  75  61 /  10  80  80  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70  90
LBL  83  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  87  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 280847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  75  62 /  10  80  90  90
GCK  85  64  75  61 /  10  80  90  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70 100
LBL  82  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  85  63  82  62 /  10  30  30  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50 100  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KDDC 280847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  75  62 /  10  80  90  90
GCK  85  64  75  61 /  10  80  90  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70 100
LBL  82  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  85  63  82  62 /  10  30  30  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50 100  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 280512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  82  65  73 /  30  70  80  70
GCK  64  80  65  74 /  30  80  80  60
EHA  65  80  65  77 /  40  80  80  60
LBL  65  80  65  75 /  40  80  80  70
HYS  63  84  65  77 /  20  50  60  60
P28  66  85  67  75 /  20  60  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 280512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  82  65  73 /  30  70  80  70
GCK  64  80  65  74 /  30  80  80  60
EHA  65  80  65  77 /  40  80  80  60
LBL  65  80  65  75 /  40  80  80  70
HYS  63  84  65  77 /  20  50  60  60
P28  66  85  67  75 /  20  60  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KDDC 272300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update for short term trends and aviation...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Watching convection across Colorado. There isn`t much mid level flow
to advect the storms to our region, so reduced/trimmed pops to far western
/southwestern Kansas. By in large, most of the CWA will be dry tonight.
This jives well with short term guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some mid level clouds, but no
reductions in flight category to less than VFR. Easterly 5-11 kt winds
will continue as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  20  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden







000
FXUS63 KDDC 272300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update for short term trends and aviation...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Watching convection across Colorado. There isn`t much mid level flow
to advect the storms to our region, so reduced/trimmed pops to far western
/southwestern Kansas. By in large, most of the CWA will be dry tonight.
This jives well with short term guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some mid level clouds, but no
reductions in flight category to less than VFR. Easterly 5-11 kt winds
will continue as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  20  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden








000
FXUS63 KDDC 271937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 271937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 271916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 271916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 271727
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  80  64 /  70  10  10  30
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  30  20  10  40
EHA  84  64  77  65 /  10  40  30  60
LBL  85  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  50
HYS  90  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  68  83  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42








000
FXUS63 KDDC 271727
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  80  64 /  70  10  10  30
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  30  20  10  40
EHA  84  64  77  65 /  10  40  30  60
LBL  85  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  50
HYS  90  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  68  83  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 271207
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
707 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue for a
couple of more hours east of KGCK with mainly MVFR ceilings through
the morning hours. Light northerly post frontal surface winds will
be the prevailing wind condition, although some gusts to around 20
knots may be ongoing during the afternoon hours.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  50  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  20  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 271207
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
707 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue for a
couple of more hours east of KGCK with mainly MVFR ceilings through
the morning hours. Light northerly post frontal surface winds will
be the prevailing wind condition, although some gusts to around 20
knots may be ongoing during the afternoon hours.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  50  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  20  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 271015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A small MCS over far southeastern Colorado will likely stay out
there and dissolve, so there are no impacts expected at GCK
terminal. A weak surface front pushing through shifted the winds to
the northeast with the winds expected to remain northeast through
the day Sunday. Most of the precipitation on Sunday will stay south
of GCK and DDC along the surface frontal zone, so we will keep the
TAFs convection-free for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 271015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A small MCS over far southeastern Colorado will likely stay out
there and dissolve, so there are no impacts expected at GCK
terminal. A weak surface front pushing through shifted the winds to
the northeast with the winds expected to remain northeast through
the day Sunday. Most of the precipitation on Sunday will stay south
of GCK and DDC along the surface frontal zone, so we will keep the
TAFs convection-free for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KDDC 270907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A small MCS over far southeastern Colorado will likely stay out
there and dissolve, so there are no impacts expected at GCK
terminal. A weak surface front pushing through shifted the winds to
the northeast with the winds expected to remain northeast through
the day Sunday. Most of the precipitation on Sunday will stay south
of GCK and DDC along the surface frontal zone, so we will keep the
TAFs convection-free for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 270907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A small MCS over far southeastern Colorado will likely stay out
there and dissolve, so there are no impacts expected at GCK
terminal. A weak surface front pushing through shifted the winds to
the northeast with the winds expected to remain northeast through
the day Sunday. Most of the precipitation on Sunday will stay south
of GCK and DDC along the surface frontal zone, so we will keep the
TAFs convection-free for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  86  64  77  65 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  86  66  78  65 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  89  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  91  68  83  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KDDC 270519
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Mid-upper tropospheric ridging persisted across the south-central
CONUS, with an elongated 500mb high centered from New Mexico east
through Oklahoma. Meanwhile, a mid level cyclone continued to move
slowly east-southeast near the Manitoba-Minnesota-North Dakota
border. Fairly decent 500mb flow existed between the high and low
across the Northern Plains through the Midwest into the Lower Great
Lakes region. Two frontal zones could be identified in the lower
troposphere. The most southern front at 850mb extended from near the
western Kansas-Nebraska border region to northern Illinois with the
northern front from central/eastern Montana to northern South
Dakota. 850mb temperatures were in the lower teens behind this front
in North Dakota. The seasonal monsoon flow could be identified on
water vapor loop with small clusters of organized convection from
southeastern Arizona to west-central New Mexico into southeastern
Colorado. A fairly small MCS (with impressive cold cloud tops on IR
satellite) was drifting slowly east across far southeastern Colorado
as of 0500 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A small MCS over far southeastern Colorado will likely stay out
there and dissolve, so there are no impacts expected at GCK
terminal. A weak surface front pushing through shifted the winds to
the northeast with the winds expected to remain northeast through
the day Sunday. Most of the precipitation on Sunday will stay south
of GCK and DDC along the surface frontal zone, so we will keep the
TAFs convection-free for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  85  64  83 /  10  20  40  50
GCK  64  83  64  83 /  20  30  40  60
EHA  64  82  65  81 /  40  40  60  70
LBL  66  84  65  81 /  30  30  60  60
HYS  62  86  63  84 /  10  10  20  30
P28  68  88  66  86 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 262302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions expected. Some accas clouds this evening. An isolated
storm is possible, however, coverage should be very isolated and will
amend TAFs as necessary as the probability of any one storm impacting
the terminals is low. Additional storms are possible tomorrow evening,
but won`t put in cb/tsra in now as confidence is low and later TAF
forecasts can add as the picture becomes more clear. Variable
winds tonight, becoming NE 10-20 kt tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  85 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  64  82 /  20  40  40  40
LBL  71  87  66  84 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  70  87  62  86 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden







000
FXUS63 KDDC 262302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions expected. Some accas clouds this evening. An isolated
storm is possible, however, coverage should be very isolated and will
amend TAFs as necessary as the probability of any one storm impacting
the terminals is low. Additional storms are possible tomorrow evening,
but won`t put in cb/tsra in now as confidence is low and later TAF
forecasts can add as the picture becomes more clear. Variable
winds tonight, becoming NE 10-20 kt tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  85 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  64  82 /  20  40  40  40
LBL  71  87  66  84 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  70  87  62  86 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden








000
FXUS63 KDDC 261947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  85 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  64  82 /  30  40  40  40
LBL  71  87  66  84 /  30  30  30  30
HYS  70  87  62  86 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 261947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  85 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  64  82 /  30  40  40  40
LBL  71  87  66  84 /  30  30  30  30
HYS  70  87  62  86 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 261836
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  84 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  66  83 /  30  40  30  30
LBL  71  87  67  85 /  30  30  20  30
HYS  70  87  63  85 /  20  10  10  20
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 261836
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  84 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  66  83 /  30  40  30  30
LBL  71  87  67  85 /  30  30  20  30
HYS  70  87  63  85 /  20  10  10  20
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 261711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 12z Saturday an upper level trough was located over western
Kansas with ongoing early morning convection observed ahead of
this upper level feature over central Kansas. A surface trough of
low pressure extended southwest from an area of low pressure at
the surface in north central Kansas. A surface cold front appears
to be extending west northwest of the surface low into western
Nebraska with a 850mb frontal boundary appearing to be located
northern Nebraska. Mid 20c temperatures were present at the 850mb
level across all of western Kansas and 700mb temperatures at 12z
Saturday varied from +14c at Topeka to +17c at Dodge City.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

One last hot day is in store for today. A weak trough axis (not
really much of a frontal zone given lack of a temperature
gradient) will support development of widely scattered
thunderstorms. WRF ARW and NMMB cores both suggest storms
developing along roughly a Ulysses to Dighton axis (and perhaps as
far northeast as Ellis) during the 21-00Z time frame late this
afternoon. Much like yesterday evening, we will be looking at
mainly a very localized high wind/microburst threat given the
forecast temperature-dewpoint spreads of 40-45 degF. Should a
small MCS develop, it will move slowly east-southeast through the mid
to late evening hours following roughly the 850-300mb mean wind.
High temperatures are expected to be 99 to 101 along/north of the
Arkansas River with 102 to 105 likely closer to the Oklahoma
border (Red Hills region of Clark-Comanche-Barber Counties at the
higher end of that range).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  71  86  65 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  20  30  20  20
EHA  99  70  86  66 /  20  20  30  30
LBL 102  72  88  67 /  10  30  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  10  20  10  10
P28 105  74  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 261711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 12z Saturday an upper level trough was located over western
Kansas with ongoing early morning convection observed ahead of
this upper level feature over central Kansas. A surface trough of
low pressure extended southwest from an area of low pressure at
the surface in north central Kansas. A surface cold front appears
to be extending west northwest of the surface low into western
Nebraska with a 850mb frontal boundary appearing to be located
northern Nebraska. Mid 20c temperatures were present at the 850mb
level across all of western Kansas and 700mb temperatures at 12z
Saturday varied from +14c at Topeka to +17c at Dodge City.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

One last hot day is in store for today. A weak trough axis (not
really much of a frontal zone given lack of a temperature
gradient) will support development of widely scattered
thunderstorms. WRF ARW and NMMB cores both suggest storms
developing along roughly a Ulysses to Dighton axis (and perhaps as
far northeast as Ellis) during the 21-00Z time frame late this
afternoon. Much like yesterday evening, we will be looking at
mainly a very localized high wind/microburst threat given the
forecast temperature-dewpoint spreads of 40-45 degF. Should a
small MCS develop, it will move slowly east-southeast through the mid
to late evening hours following roughly the 850-300mb mean wind.
High temperatures are expected to be 99 to 101 along/north of the
Arkansas River with 102 to 105 likely closer to the Oklahoma
border (Red Hills region of Clark-Comanche-Barber Counties at the
higher end of that range).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  71  86  65 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  20  30  20  20
EHA  99  70  86  66 /  20  20  30  30
LBL 102  72  88  67 /  10  30  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  10  20  10  10
P28 105  74  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 261150
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

One last hot day is in store for today. A weak trough axis (not
really much of a frontal zone given lack of a temperature
gradient) will support development of widely scattered
thunderstorms. WRF ARW and NMMB cores both suggest storms
developing along roughly a Ulysses to Dighton axis (and perhaps as
far northeast as Ellis) during the 21-00Z time frame late this
afternoon. Much like yesterday evening, we will be looking at
mainly a very localized high wind/microburst threat given the
forecast temperature-dewpoint spreads of 40-45 degF. Should a
small MCS develop, it will move slowly east-southeast through the mid
to late evening hours following roughly the 850-300mb mean wind.
High temperatures are expected to be 99 to 101 along/north of the
Arkansas River with 102 to 105 likely closer to the Oklahoma
border (Red Hills region of Clark-Comanche-Barber Counties at the
higher end of that range).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Mainly light and variable winds are expected through this TAF period
as prevailing conditions. VFR conditions are expected through the
afternoon with only high thin cirrus. A few convective clusters
could be present along a boundary overnight with low confidence of
impacts for any given terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  71  86  65 /  20  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  30  30  20  20
EHA  99  70  86  66 /  20  20  30  30
LBL 102  72  88  67 /  20  20  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  20  20  10  10
P28 105  74  88  68 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 260850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

One last hot day is in store for today. A weak trough axis (not
really much of a frontal zone given lack of a temperature
gradient) will support development of widely scattered
thunderstorms. WRF ARW and NMMB cores both suggest storms
developing along roughly a Ulysses to Dighton axis (and perhaps as
far northeast as Ellis) during the 21-00Z time frame late this
afternoon. Much like yesterday evening, we will be looking at
mainly a very localized high wind/microburst threat given the
forecast temperature-dewpoint spreads of 40-45 degF. Should a
small MCS develop, it will move slowly east-southeast through the mid
to late evening hours following roughly the 850-300mb mean wind.
High temperatures are expected to be 99 to 101 along/north of the
Arkansas River with 102 to 105 likely closer to the Oklahoma
border (Red Hills region of Clark-Comanche-Barber Counties at the
higher end of that range).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A small MCS moving slowly east across far west-central Kansas will
likely stay away from HYS, GCK, and DDC terminals through the night
as it begins to slowly decrease in intensity and eventually dissolve
all together overnight. Outside of the convection, winds will remain
light at 6 knots or less with VFR expected to persist. With the
broad surface trough axis remaining the region Saturday, winds will
continue to stay light at less than 10 knots. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon, but
for now will keep them out of the TAF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  71  86  65 /  20  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  30  30  20  20
EHA  99  70  86  66 /  20  20  30  30
LBL 102  72  88  67 /  20  20  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  20  20  10  10
P28 105  74  88  68 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 260850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

One last hot day is in store for today. A weak trough axis (not
really much of a frontal zone given lack of a temperature
gradient) will support development of widely scattered
thunderstorms. WRF ARW and NMMB cores both suggest storms
developing along roughly a Ulysses to Dighton axis (and perhaps as
far northeast as Ellis) during the 21-00Z time frame late this
afternoon. Much like yesterday evening, we will be looking at
mainly a very localized high wind/microburst threat given the
forecast temperature-dewpoint spreads of 40-45 degF. Should a
small MCS develop, it will move slowly east-southeast through the mid
to late evening hours following roughly the 850-300mb mean wind.
High temperatures are expected to be 99 to 101 along/north of the
Arkansas River with 102 to 105 likely closer to the Oklahoma
border (Red Hills region of Clark-Comanche-Barber Counties at the
higher end of that range).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A small MCS moving slowly east across far west-central Kansas will
likely stay away from HYS, GCK, and DDC terminals through the night
as it begins to slowly decrease in intensity and eventually dissolve
all together overnight. Outside of the convection, winds will remain
light at 6 knots or less with VFR expected to persist. With the
broad surface trough axis remaining the region Saturday, winds will
continue to stay light at less than 10 knots. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon, but
for now will keep them out of the TAF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  71  86  65 /  20  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  30  30  20  20
EHA  99  70  86  66 /  20  20  30  30
LBL 102  72  88  67 /  20  20  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  20  20  10  10
P28 105  74  88  68 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KDDC 260734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...updated long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A small MCS moving slowly east across far west-central Kansas will
likely stay away from HYS, GCK, and DDC terminals through the night
as it begins to slowly decrease in intensity and eventually dissolve
all together overnight. Outside of the convection, winds will remain
light at 6 knots or less with VFR expected to persist. With the
broad surface trough axis remaining the region Saturday, winds will
continue to stay light at less than 10 knots. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon, but
for now will keep them out of the TAF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  71  86  65 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
EHA 101  70  86  66 /  10  20  30  30
LBL 103  72  88  67 /  10  20  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  10  20  10  10
P28 103  74  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid









000
FXUS63 KDDC 260734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...updated long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A small MCS moving slowly east across far west-central Kansas will
likely stay away from HYS, GCK, and DDC terminals through the night
as it begins to slowly decrease in intensity and eventually dissolve
all together overnight. Outside of the convection, winds will remain
light at 6 knots or less with VFR expected to persist. With the
broad surface trough axis remaining the region Saturday, winds will
continue to stay light at less than 10 knots. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon, but
for now will keep them out of the TAF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  71  86  65 /  10  20  10  10
GCK 100  70  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
EHA 101  70  86  66 /  10  20  30  30
LBL 103  72  88  67 /  10  20  30  20
HYS 100  71  88  63 /  10  20  10  10
P28 103  74  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 260457
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1157 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A mid-upper tropospheric anticyclone remained anchored over New
Mexico into adjacent West Texas. A mid level cyclone was centered
across southern Saskatchewan, and fairly strong zonal flow was
occurring between the high and low across the northern Great Plains.
The southern Saskatchewan cyclone was severely occluded yesterday
evening as it continued to spin and move slowly east-southeast.
Beneath and just north of the anticyclone center, very hot lower
tropospheric temperatures were found, with +31C 850mb temperature at
KDDC and KAMA. The 850mb thermal ridge extended northeast through
much of Kansas into northwestern Missouri. Water vapor loop
confirmed some mid level moisture of tropical origins rotating
anticyclonically around the upper high from Arizona into Utah and
east-northeastward into portions of Colorado and adjacent southern
Wyoming. Weak lee trough convergence across eastern Colorado near
the Kansas border lead to the formation of a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) which continued to evolve and move slowly
east-northeast across far west-central Kansas as of 0445 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Saturday Night/Sunday:

Isolated convection be possible Saturday night along a zone of enhanced
low level frontogenesis. The global models (EC/GFS) are in fair agreement
with storms developing as is with the mesoscale models (WRF, less 4
km NAM). Broad brushed slight pops as no real one area is preferred
over another. An inverted-v thermo profile is expected, so storms could
produce microbursts. Shear is on the weak side, so winds and lightning
should be the main threats. Brief heavy rainfall is also a lower end
threat. Storms will be diurnally driven and activity should quickly
end by dusk. Overnight minimums expected to be in the 70s.

For Sunday, we will be behind the front in a post-frontal upslope
regime. Will have to watch out for orographic convection forming over
the Colorado terrain and propagating east Sunday night across the western
zones. Have the highest pops for far southwest Kansas as well as lower
maximums for Sunday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Next week:

Those who like cooler temperatures will be happy to know that there
is still the signal for cooler conditions next week. There is some similar
synoptic hints of this upcoming cooler spell as to the last cooler temperature
outbreak we saw earlier - however, the overall magnitude should be somewhat
tapered compared to the previous event.

The most interesting weather looks to be Monday and particularly Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft and low level upslope flow all point to the
synoptic/mesoscale pattern that of which is conducive to MCS formation.
The best area for the most precipitation through next week will be across
far southwest Kansas - exactly where they need it - as they are experiencing
the most severe drought conditions.

I pretty much left the allblend temps alone, but there probably is a
good chance that these temps will be too warm. The EC suggests some areas
that remain under precip and clouds will not break out of the 60s. Something
to watch. Still for the end of July, there isn`t much room to complain
even if we are only in the 70s for highs midweek. Next Wednesday looks
to the coolest during my period. Way out by the end of the extended
pd, the EC and particularly the GFS indicate amplification and possible
slight retrogression of a downstream trof/low. The associated mid level
cold pool could result in more shower/iso storms for the end of next
week, but confidence is extremely low. Some modification of allblend
pops were done after WFO coordination.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A small MCS moving slowly east across far west-central Kansas will
likely stay away from HYS, GCK, and DDC terminals through the night
as it begins to slowly decrease in intensity and eventually dissolve
all together overnight. Outside of the convection, winds will remain
light at 6 knots or less with VFR expected to persist. With the
broad surface trough axis remaining the region Saturday, winds will
continue to stay light at less than 10 knots. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon, but
for now will keep them out of the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 101  71  90 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  69 100  70  89 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  70 101  70  89 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  72 103  72  91 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  72 100  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
P28  75 103  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 252311
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Saturday Night/Sunday:

Isolated convection be possible Saturday night along a zone of enhanced
low level frontogenesis. The global models (EC/GFS) are in fair agreement
with storms developing as is with the mesoscale models (WRF, less 4
km NAM). Broad brushed slight pops as no real one area is preferred
over another. An inverted-v thermo profile is expected, so storms could
produce microbursts. Shear is on the weak side, so winds and lightning
should be the main threats. Brief heavy rainfall is also a lower end
threat. Storms will be diurnally driven and activity should quickly
end by dusk. Overnight minimums expected to be in the 70s.

For Sunday, we will be behind the front in a post-frontal upslope
regime. Will have to watch out for orographic convection forming over
the Colorado terrain and propagating east Sunday night across the western
zones. Have the highest pops for far southwest Kansas as well as lower
maximums for Sunday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Next week:

Those who like cooler temperatures will be happy to know that there
is still the signal for cooler conditions next week. There is some similar
synoptic hints of this upcoming cooler spell as to the last cooler temperature
outbreak we saw earlier - however, the overall magnitude should be somewhat
tapered compared to the previous event.

The most interesting weather looks to be Monday and particularly Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft and low level upslope flow all point to the
synoptic/mesoscale pattern that of which is conducive to MCS formation.
The best area for the most precipitation through next week will be across
far southwest Kansas - exactly where they need it - as they are experiencing
the most severe drought conditions.

I pretty much left the allblend temps alone, but there probably is a
good chance that these temps will be too warm. The EC suggests some areas
that remain under precip and clouds will not break out of the 60s. Something
to watch. Still for the end of July, there isn`t much room to complain
even if we are only in the 70s for highs midweek. Next Wednesday looks
to the coolest during my period. Way out by the end of the extended
pd, the EC and particularly the GFS indicate amplification and possible
slight retrogression of a downstream trof/low. The associated mid level
cold pool could result in more shower/iso storms for the end of next
week, but confidence is extremely low. Some modification of allblend
pops were done after WFO coordination.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. Upper level high
pressure will persist from New Mexico into Oklahoma, while a deep
upper level trough moves from southern Saskatchewan into southeast
Manitoba by Saturday evening. At the surface, a weak trough from
north central Kansas into eastern Colorado will move little tonight.
Widely scattered evening thunderstorms are possible along the trough
axis. Other thunderstorms in eastern Colorado will propagate into
western Kansas after 9 PM but should gradually weaken to only
scattered showers by midnight. Scattered to broken clouds with bases
aoa 200 can be expected to spread across western Kansas this
evening. Local ceilings near 080 will occur as weakening
thunderstorms approach GCK after 03Z, and scattered clouds near 080
with ceilings aoa 200 can be expected as the weakening area of
showers moves east through 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 101  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  69 100  70  89 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  70 101  70  89 /  30  10  20  30
LBL  72 103  72  91 /  20  10  20  30
HYS  72 100  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
P28  75 103  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi







000
FXUS63 KDDC 252311
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Saturday Night/Sunday:

Isolated convection be possible Saturday night along a zone of enhanced
low level frontogenesis. The global models (EC/GFS) are in fair agreement
with storms developing as is with the mesoscale models (WRF, less 4
km NAM). Broad brushed slight pops as no real one area is preferred
over another. An inverted-v thermo profile is expected, so storms could
produce microbursts. Shear is on the weak side, so winds and lightning
should be the main threats. Brief heavy rainfall is also a lower end
threat. Storms will be diurnally driven and activity should quickly
end by dusk. Overnight minimums expected to be in the 70s.

For Sunday, we will be behind the front in a post-frontal upslope
regime. Will have to watch out for orographic convection forming over
the Colorado terrain and propagating east Sunday night across the western
zones. Have the highest pops for far southwest Kansas as well as lower
maximums for Sunday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Next week:

Those who like cooler temperatures will be happy to know that there
is still the signal for cooler conditions next week. There is some similar
synoptic hints of this upcoming cooler spell as to the last cooler temperature
outbreak we saw earlier - however, the overall magnitude should be somewhat
tapered compared to the previous event.

The most interesting weather looks to be Monday and particularly Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft and low level upslope flow all point to the
synoptic/mesoscale pattern that of which is conducive to MCS formation.
The best area for the most precipitation through next week will be across
far southwest Kansas - exactly where they need it - as they are experiencing
the most severe drought conditions.

I pretty much left the allblend temps alone, but there probably is a
good chance that these temps will be too warm. The EC suggests some areas
that remain under precip and clouds will not break out of the 60s. Something
to watch. Still for the end of July, there isn`t much room to complain
even if we are only in the 70s for highs midweek. Next Wednesday looks
to the coolest during my period. Way out by the end of the extended
pd, the EC and particularly the GFS indicate amplification and possible
slight retrogression of a downstream trof/low. The associated mid level
cold pool could result in more shower/iso storms for the end of next
week, but confidence is extremely low. Some modification of allblend
pops were done after WFO coordination.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. Upper level high
pressure will persist from New Mexico into Oklahoma, while a deep
upper level trough moves from southern Saskatchewan into southeast
Manitoba by Saturday evening. At the surface, a weak trough from
north central Kansas into eastern Colorado will move little tonight.
Widely scattered evening thunderstorms are possible along the trough
axis. Other thunderstorms in eastern Colorado will propagate into
western Kansas after 9 PM but should gradually weaken to only
scattered showers by midnight. Scattered to broken clouds with bases
aoa 200 can be expected to spread across western Kansas this
evening. Local ceilings near 080 will occur as weakening
thunderstorms approach GCK after 03Z, and scattered clouds near 080
with ceilings aoa 200 can be expected as the weakening area of
showers moves east through 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 101  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  69 100  70  89 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  70 101  70  89 /  30  10  20  30
LBL  72 103  72  91 /  20  10  20  30
HYS  72 100  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
P28  75 103  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi








000
FXUS63 KDDC 252120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
420 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Saturday Night/Sunday:

Isolated convection be possible Saturday night along a zone of enhanced
low level frontogenesis. The global models (EC/GFS) are in fair agreement
with storms developing as is with the mesoscale models (WRF, less 4
km NAM). Broad brushed slight pops as no real one area is preferred
over another. An inverted-v thermo profile is expected, so storms could
produce microbursts. Shear is on the weak side, so winds and lightning
should be the main threats. Brief heavy rainfall is also a lower end
threat. Storms will be diurnally driven and activity should quickly
end by dusk. Overnight minimums expected to be in the 70s.

For Sunday, we will be behind the front in a post-frontal upslope
regime. Will have to watch out for orographic convection forming over
the Colorado terrain and propagating east Sunday night across the western
zones. Have the highest pops for far southwest Kansas as well as lower
maximums for Sunday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Next week:

Those who like cooler temperatures will be happy to know that there
is still the signal for cooler conditions next week. There is some similar
synoptic hints of this upcoming cooler spell as to the last cooler temperature
outbreak we saw earlier - however, the overall magnitude should be somewhat
tapered compared to the previous event.

The most interesting weather looks to be Monday and particularly Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft and low level upslope flow all point to the
synoptic/mesoscale pattern that of which is conducive to MCS formation.
The best area for the most precipitation through next week will be across
far southwest Kansas - exactly where they need it - as they are experiencing
the most severe drought conditions.

I pretty much left the allblend temps alone, but there probably is a
good chance that these temps will be too warm. The EC suggests some areas
that remain under precip and clouds will not break out of the 60s. Something
to watch. Still for the end of July, there isn`t much room to complain
even if we are only in the 70s for highs midweek. Next Wednesday looks
to the coolest during my period. Way out by the end of the extended
pd, the EC and particularly the GFS indicate amplification and possible
slight retrogression of a downstream trof/low. The associated mid level
cold pool could result in more shower/iso storms for the end of next
week, but confidence is extremely low. Some modification of allblend
pops were done after WFO coordination.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

First of all, this TAF period will see VFR conditions. Nearly
clear skies and southwest winds will produce hot temperatures. A
weak wind shift will occur as a surface trough drops southeast
from central Colorado. Late this afternoon winds will become west
to northwest at 10 knots, or may actually drop to light and
variable after the trough passes.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 101  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  69 100  70  89 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  70 101  70  89 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  72 103  72  91 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  72 100  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
P28  75 103  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 252120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
420 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

I will change very little to this current forecast, since the
ongoing forecast seems on track and in agreement with the short
term, high definition models.  We have been heating up faster than
yesterday, and I see no reason why we won`t reach the 100 to 104
degree range today.  Dew points in our eastern tier of counties
are in the upper 60s, which will combine with the 103F or so surface
temperatures to give heat indices in the 105F range.  Thus, the NPW
Heat Advisory will continue through 8 PM CDT this evening.  All of
the counties may not reach the 105F Heat Advisory criteria, but they
will come close.  There is a lee side trough moving near the
Colorado border, and if any storms do form this evening, it should
be near the trough axis.  Later, the trough could slide east into
our central CWA, and isolated storms could fire there towards
midnight.   As for low temperatures, we should be just a little
cooler than this morning, and min temps are forecast to be in the
upper 60s near Syracuse, and range to the mid 70s in Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge. I expect winds will not be as brisk as they were
last night, either.

As for Saturday, we will be under the dome of a hot, upper high
pressure dome centered off to our southwest.  A surface trough will
again form in Colorado during Saturday afternoon, and then move into
western Kansas during the evening.  So, at this time, I do not
expect any thunderstorms during Saturday, but just after sundown.
Maximum temps Saturday will reach the 99 to 103F degree range, but
dew points will be slightly lower than today.  Thus, a heat advisory
does not seem imminent Saturday.  Winds will vary from south at 10
to 20 mph in the Medicine Lodge area to the east across our northern
2/3rd of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Saturday Night/Sunday:

Isolated convection be possible Saturday night along a zone of enhanced
low level frontogenesis. The global models (EC/GFS) are in fair agreement
with storms developing as is with the mesoscale models (WRF, less 4
km NAM). Broad brushed slight pops as no real one area is preferred
over another. An inverted-v thermo profile is expected, so storms could
produce microbursts. Shear is on the weak side, so winds and lightning
should be the main threats. Brief heavy rainfall is also a lower end
threat. Storms will be diurnally driven and activity should quickly
end by dusk. Overnight minimums expected to be in the 70s.

For Sunday, we will be behind the front in a post-frontal upslope
regime. Will have to watch out for orographic convection forming over
the Colorado terrain and propagating east Sunday night across the western
zones. Have the highest pops for far southwest Kansas as well as lower
maximums for Sunday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Next week:

Those who like cooler temperatures will be happy to know that there
is still the signal for cooler conditions next week. There is some similar
synoptic hints of this upcoming cooler spell as to the last cooler temperature
outbreak we saw earlier - however, the overall magnitude should be somewhat
tapered compared to the previous event.

The most interesting weather looks to be Monday and particularly Tuesday.
Northwesterly flow aloft and low level upslope flow all point to the
synoptic/mesoscale pattern that of which is conducive to MCS formation.
The best area for the most precipitation through next week will be across
far southwest Kansas - exactly where they need it - as they are experiencing
the most severe drought conditions.

I pretty much left the allblend temps alone, but there probably is a
good chance that these temps will be too warm. The EC suggests some areas
that remain under precip and clouds will not break out of the 60s. Something
to watch. Still for the end of July, there isn`t much room to complain
even if we are only in the 70s for highs midweek. Next Wednesday looks
to the coolest during my period. Way out by the end of the extended
pd, the EC and particularly the GFS indicate amplification and possible
slight retrogression of a downstream trof/low. The associated mid level
cold pool could result in more shower/iso storms for the end of next
week, but confidence is extremely low. Some modification of allblend
pops were done after WFO coordination.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

First of all, this TAF period will see VFR conditions. Nearly
clear skies and southwest winds will produce hot temperatures. A
weak wind shift will occur as a surface trough drops southeast
from central Colorado. Late this afternoon winds will become west
to northwest at 10 knots, or may actually drop to light and
variable after the trough passes.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 101  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  69 100  70  89 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  70 101  70  89 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  72 103  72  91 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  72 100  71  90 /  20  10  20  10
P28  75 103  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







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