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000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WAS IF TO PUT TS/CB GROUPS IN THE TAFS. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR NOT, SO WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE 5-7 KFT CLOUD DECK AND WINDS WILL BE
SE/SSE 10-20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WAS IF TO PUT TS/CB GROUPS IN THE TAFS. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR NOT, SO WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE 5-7 KFT CLOUD DECK AND WINDS WILL BE
SE/SSE 10-20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 21Z SATURDAY. 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY,
SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES LATE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER
WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70
MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES, HOWEVER GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  10  10  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 21Z SATURDAY. 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY,
SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES LATE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER
WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70
MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES, HOWEVER GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  10  10  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040752 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  10  10  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040752 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  10  10  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040752 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.

TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  96  70 /  20  20  10  40
GCK  91  69  98  70 /  20  20  10  40
EHA  95  70  97  67 /  10  10  20  30
LBL  94  70  97  70 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  90  69  98  71 /  20  20  20  50
P28  91  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040528
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT 00Z SATURDAY A 500MB NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOCATED OVER KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS EVIDENT OVER MONTANA. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG A +7 TO +10C
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE TO 850MB RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AT THE SURFACE AT 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  71  83 /  40  10  50  60
GCK  69  98  70  80 /  40  20  50  50
EHA  68  97  67  80 /  10  20  40  40
LBL  69  97  70  83 /  30  10  40  50
HYS  70  98  71  82 /  30  20  60  50
P28  70  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040528
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT 00Z SATURDAY A 500MB NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LOCATED OVER KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS EVIDENT OVER MONTANA. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG A +7 TO +10C
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE TO 850MB RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AT THE SURFACE AT 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  71  83 /  40  10  50  60
GCK  69  98  70  80 /  40  20  50  50
EHA  68  97  67  80 /  10  20  40  40
LBL  69  97  70  83 /  30  10  40  50
HYS  70  98  71  82 /  30  20  60  50
P28  70  95  73  88 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032346
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AVIATION WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIATION, TIMING, AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS AXIS OF CONVECTION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, BUT OVERNIGHT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
SHOULD THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP AND AFFECT DDC, GCK, AND/OR HYS
TERMINALS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  69  96 /  20  40  40  10
GCK  65  90  69  98 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  64  96  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  95  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  66  89  70  98 /  20  20  30  20
P28  68  92  70  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032346
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AVIATION WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIATION, TIMING, AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS AXIS OF CONVECTION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, BUT OVERNIGHT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
SHOULD THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP AND AFFECT DDC, GCK, AND/OR HYS
TERMINALS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  69  96 /  20  40  40  10
GCK  65  90  69  98 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  64  96  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  95  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  66  89  70  98 /  20  20  30  20
P28  68  92  70  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH 12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THEN INCREASE IN SPEED BY 15-16Z TO 15 KTS.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGCK AS WELL AS LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  69  96 /  20  40  40  10
GCK  65  90  69  98 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  64  96  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  95  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  66  89  70  98 /  20  20  30  20
P28  68  92  70  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH 12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THEN INCREASE IN SPEED BY 15-16Z TO 15 KTS.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGCK AS WELL AS LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  69  96 /  20  40  40  10
GCK  65  90  69  98 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  64  96  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  95  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  66  89  70  98 /  20  20  30  20
P28  68  92  70  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH 12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THEN INCREASE IN SPEED BY 15-16Z TO 15 KTS.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGCK AS WELL AS LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  69  96 /  20  40  40  10
GCK  65  90  69  98 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  64  96  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  95  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  66  89  70  98 /  20  20  30  20
P28  68  92  70  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH 12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THEN INCREASE IN SPEED BY 15-16Z TO 15 KTS.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGCK AS WELL AS LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  69  96 /  20  40  40  10
GCK  65  90  69  98 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  64  96  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  95  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  66  89  70  98 /  20  20  30  20
P28  68  92  70  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTEARLY THROUGH 12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THEN INCREASE IN SPEED BY 15-16Z TO 15 KTS.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGCK AS WELL AS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  89  69 /  10  20  40  40
GCK  87  65  90  69 /  20  20  40  40
EHA  90  64  96  68 /  30  30  10  10
LBL  90  66  95  69 /  30  30  30  30
HYS  85  66  89  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTEARLY THROUGH 12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THEN INCREASE IN SPEED BY 15-16Z TO 15 KTS.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGCK AS WELL AS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  89  69 /  10  20  40  40
GCK  87  65  90  69 /  20  20  40  40
EHA  90  64  96  68 /  30  30  10  10
LBL  90  66  95  69 /  30  30  30  30
HYS  85  66  89  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031110
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
800MB TO 600MB LEVEL SO VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF GCK. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORING WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BY MID DAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031110
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
800MB TO 600MB LEVEL SO VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF GCK. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORING WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BY MID DAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031110
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
800MB TO 600MB LEVEL SO VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF GCK. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORING WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BY MID DAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030708
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030708
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030708
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030708
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPSLOPE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT.
A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT WAA-INDUCED PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS IS MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE NAM IS PRETTY
ROBUST WITH CAPE AND SHOWS A MORE APPRECIABLE WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THINK THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
RECENTLY. LIKE OUTPUT FROM BOTH CORES OF THE WRF, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. THIS MAKE SENSE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ECMWF CAPE IS A LOT LOWER THAN NAM CAPE (1800 J/KG VERSUS 3000
J/KG). THERE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED IN NATURE)
FOR THE HOLIDAY. DOWNPLAYING THE THREATS FOR NOW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
1" HAIL AND 60 MPH OUTFLOWS. HIGHS FOR THE 4TH WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S. TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. AGAIN,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
850-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS SFC TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. A MORE APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR STORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOME 70S IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING
TO ECE GUIDANCE. MEX GUIDANCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG AND THERE IS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS COOL SPELL WON`T LAST LONG AS LEE TROUGHING
RESUMES MIDWEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. WARMER WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE MAY BE MORE BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  92  69 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  88  65  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  88  64  93  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  88  66  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  66  91  70 /  10  20  20  30
P28  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  65  87  65  92 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  66  89  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  64  87  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
P28  68  89  67  91 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  65  87  65  92 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  66  89  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  64  87  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
P28  68  89  67  91 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  65  87  65  92 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  66  89  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  64  87  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
P28  68  89  67  91 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  65  87  65  92 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  66  89  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  64  87  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
P28  68  89  67  91 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL YIELD SOME 10 TO 15
THOUSAND FOOT CLOUD AND PERHAPS A FEW MINOR SHOWERS AROUND GCK ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE IMPACTS APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  65  87  65  92 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  66  89  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  64  87  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
P28  68  89  67  91 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 022317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL YIELD SOME 10 TO 15
THOUSAND FOOT CLOUD AND PERHAPS A FEW MINOR SHOWERS AROUND GCK ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE IMPACTS APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  65  87  65  92 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  66  89  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  64  87  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
P28  68  89  67  91 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 021752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION, SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT KHYS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 12 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  66  88  65 /  40  30  20  10
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  30  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  30  30  30  30
HYS  85  64  88  63 /  60  10  20  20
P28  90  68  89  67 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 021752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION, SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT KHYS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 12 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  66  88  65 /  40  30  20  10
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  30  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  30  30  30  30
HYS  85  64  88  63 /  60  10  20  20
P28  90  68  89  67 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 021102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
HAYS AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
DEVELOPING IN THE GCK AREA AT 09Z. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THESE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS TO STAY IN THE GCK AREAS
THROUGH 15Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH DDC FROM
THE WEST. BASED ON 06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS VFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH CEILING ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS RANGING
FROM 3000 TO 6000FT AGL. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT HAYS WHERE
EARLY THIS MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EAST WINDS ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE
THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  88  65 /  50  40  20  20
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  50  40  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  82  64  88  63 /  50  40  20  20
P28  88  68  89  67 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 021102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
HAYS AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
DEVELOPING IN THE GCK AREA AT 09Z. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THESE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS TO STAY IN THE GCK AREAS
THROUGH 15Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH DDC FROM
THE WEST. BASED ON 06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS VFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH CEILING ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS RANGING
FROM 3000 TO 6000FT AGL. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT HAYS WHERE
EARLY THIS MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
EAST WINDS ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. THE PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE
THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  88  65 /  50  40  20  20
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  50  40  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  82  64  88  63 /  50  40  20  20
P28  88  68  89  67 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  88  65 /  50  40  20  20
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  50  40  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  82  64  88  63 /  50  40  20  20
P28  88  68  89  67 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  88  65 /  50  40  20  20
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  50  40  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  82  64  88  63 /  50  40  20  20
P28  88  68  89  67 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  88  65 /  50  40  20  20
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  50  40  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  82  64  88  63 /  50  40  20  20
P28  88  68  89  67 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT. CURRENTLY WATCHING
A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE 15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. CAMS LIKE THE ARW SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORMING AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A LITTLE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT
IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, OTHER THAN THEY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH INSTABILITY. FEEL THIS
MIGHT BE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LHP FROM THE NAM IS THE HIGHEST DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER CAPE. THINK HAIL SIZE WILL BE TAPERED SOMEWHAT
BY PROBABLY LOWER CAPE AND UPSCALE GROWTH. FORECAST DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
AND A WELL MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL, THINK THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
WALNUTS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICKLY MOVING STORMS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK SMALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS IN QUESTION ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVOLVE WITH RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND
IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE PRETTY WORKED OVER AND IT SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE
FOR UPSLOPE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FROM STORMS
FORMING ACROSS COLORADO. THE NAM IS A LITTLE BIT EAST THOUGH FOR COMPARISON.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, HOWEVER;
IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS FAR
OUT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRONG QPF SIGNAL, SO IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM, THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ISOLATED. MAN MADE
LIGHT DISPLAYS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ATMOSPHERIC. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD, PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL BE WARM TO HOT WITH
MILD LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  66  88  65 /  50  40  20  20
GCK  85  64  88  64 /  50  40  20  20
EHA  90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  40
LBL  90  66  87  66 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  82  64  88  63 /  50  40  20  20
P28  88  68  89  67 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  30  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  20  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  30  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  20  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  30  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  20  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  30  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  20  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012350
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHEAST, AND MOST LIKELY CLIP FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY AT GCK AND
DDC, BUT THESE MAY BE AMENDED LATER THIS EVENING IF AN MCS LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO CLIP GCK TERMINAL. ON
THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC, HYS) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18 TO 24Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  20  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  10  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012350
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHEAST, AND MOST LIKELY CLIP FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY AT GCK AND
DDC, BUT THESE MAY BE AMENDED LATER THIS EVENING IF AN MCS LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO CLIP GCK TERMINAL. ON
THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC, HYS) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18 TO 24Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  20  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  10  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 012350
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHEAST, AND MOST LIKELY CLIP FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY AT GCK AND
DDC, BUT THESE MAY BE AMENDED LATER THIS EVENING IF AN MCS LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO CLIP GCK TERMINAL. ON
THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC, HYS) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18 TO 24Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  20  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  10  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012350
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHEAST, AND MOST LIKELY CLIP FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY AT GCK AND
DDC, BUT THESE MAY BE AMENDED LATER THIS EVENING IF AN MCS LINGERS
LONGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO CLIP GCK TERMINAL. ON
THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC, HYS) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18 TO 24Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  20  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  10  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM, LONG TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 12-15KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AT THE TAF SITES AFTER
12Z. APART FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  88  65 /  20  10  40  40
GCK  97  70  87  65 /  20  20  40  40
EHA  98  69  93  65 /  20  20  40  40
LBL  99  71  92  66 /  20  20  40  40
HYS  97  69  83  64 /  10  10  40  40
P28 102  72  90  67 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM, LONG TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 12-15KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AT THE TAF SITES AFTER
12Z. APART FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  88  65 /  20  10  40  40
GCK  97  70  87  65 /  20  20  40  40
EHA  98  69  93  65 /  20  20  40  40
LBL  99  71  92  66 /  20  20  40  40
HYS  97  69  83  64 /  10  10  40  40
P28 102  72  90  67 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM, LONG TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 12-15KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AT THE TAF SITES AFTER
12Z. APART FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  88  65 /  20  10  40  40
GCK  97  70  87  65 /  20  20  40  40
EHA  98  69  93  65 /  20  20  40  40
LBL  99  71  92  66 /  20  20  40  40
HYS  97  69  83  64 /  10  10  40  40
P28 102  72  90  67 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 011759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM, LONG TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 12-15KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AT THE TAF SITES AFTER
12Z. APART FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  88  65 /  20  10  40  40
GCK  97  70  87  65 /  20  20  40  40
EHA  98  69  93  65 /  20  20  40  40
LBL  99  71  92  66 /  20  20  40  40
HYS  97  69  83  64 /  10  10  40  40
P28 102  72  90  67 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




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