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000
FXUS63 KDDC 281125
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A relatively quiet day is expected today across southwest Kansas after
a week of severe weather on a nearly daily basis. The weak upper low
over western Kansas Friday evening had moved into Nebraska early this
morning and will continue northeast today. The central High Plains will
be under confluent flow aloft and the associated subsidence will bring
mostly sunny and drier conditions to the area.

An upper level disturbance dropping south along the West Coast will
close off into an upper low over southern California by Sunday morning.
Ahead of this system, low level winds will become southerly across
the central and southern Plains which will bring increasing low level
moisture back into western Kansas later tonight. This flow pattern
will be under weak isentropic ascent across western Kansas late
tonight. With increasing instability aloft, a few elevated showers
and thunderstorms could develop late tonight or toward Sunday
morning across western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The medium range models show a somewhat messy upper level pattern
over the western and central conus through the first half of next
week. The upper low over the southwestern states will slowly move
east through the first part of the week. This system will phase
with another upper system that moves onshore over British Columbia
and then drops into the northern Plains by late Tuesday. While
synoptic scale details are not overly specific, the models suggest
that weak disturbances will be moving out over the central Plains
ahead of the upper lows. This will bring periods of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms to the area through Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the upper systems are progged to push eastward
across the central conus with northwesterly flow developing over
the region between the exiting upper trough and an upper level
ridge building over the western states. The models are drier in
this pattern so chances for thunderstorms should diminish by late
Wednesday nearly negligible precipitation chances through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the northwest at 8-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  58  82  59 /  10  20  50  40
GCK  80  56  84  59 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  81  54  83  57 /  10  10  30  30
LBL  82  57  84  58 /  10  20  50  30
HYS  78  57  81  59 /  10  20  40  30
P28  83  62  84  62 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 280522
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Cleaned up pop/wx/sky grids through midnight to match trends.
Closed low rotating through the northern CWA currently, with
showers and thunderstorms continuing across the NE counties, aided
by diffluence aloft ahead of the incoming low. Low topped
supercells have been noted across the northern counties for the
past several hours, with confirmed weak tornadoes, and hail as
large as golfballs from the strongest storms. Thunderstorm
intensity will continue to wane through midnight with the loss of
instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Immediate concern is the areal coverage and intensity of
convection the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. A
relatively cold upper low was moving into west central Kansas this
afternoon. It has developed a negative tilt as a speed max punches
around the southern periphery. Lightning has increased
dramatically under the cold pool across east central Colorado.
Farther east, the westerly boundary layer surge had moved into
my southeast counties. Across my northern counties an easterly
flow has developed with increasing theta-e air. With the cold
system moving east the likelihood of severe will continue into
the early evening hours.

Saturday should be a down day with the upper system far removed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The upper flow becomes favorable again late in the weekend with
lowering heights again across the southwest. Deep boundary layer
moisture will be moving back into the high plains during the early
part of the period. All the deterministic models due indicate at
least a weak s/wv trough moving out late Sunday and these models
generate an MCS looking signal.

Additional chances for convection will exist until later in the
week as it appears a strong s/wv trough drops southeast out of the
northern branch of the westerlies. This should bring a fairly
strong cool front south into western Kansas by Wednesday. Details
beyond mid-week are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of Hays will move away
from that terminal early in this TAF period. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at all the terminals through the remainder of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  80  58  82 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  51  81  56  83 /  20  10  10  30
EHA  49  81  54  84 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  52  81  57  84 /  10  10  10  40
HYS  55  77  57  81 /  50  10  10  30
P28  58  81  62  82 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Gerard





000
FXUS63 KDDC 280120
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
820 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Cleaned up pop/wx/sky grids through midnight to match trends.
Closed low rotating through the northern CWA currently, with
showers and thunderstorms continuing across the NE counties, aided
by diffluence aloft ahead of the incoming low. Low topped
supercells have been noted across the northern counties for the
past several hours, with confirmed weak tornadoes, and hail as
large as golfballs from the strongest storms. Thunderstorm
intensity will continue to wane through midnight with the loss of
instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Immediate concern is the areal coverage and intensity of
convection the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. A
relatively cold upper low was moving into west central Kansas this
afternoon. It has developed a negative tilt as a speed max punches
around the southern periphery. Lightning has increased
dramatically under the cold pool across east central Colorado.
Farther east, the westerly boundary layer surge had moved into
my southeast counties. Across my northern counties an easterly
flow has developed with increasing theta-e air. With the cold
system moving east the likelihood of severe will continue into
the early evening hours.

Saturday should be a down day with the upper system far removed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The upper flow becomes favorable again late in the weekend with
lowering heights again across the southwest. Deep boundary layer
moisture will be moving back into the high plains during the early
part of the period. All the deterministic models due indicate at
least a weak s/wv trough moving out late Sunday and these models
generate an MCS looking signal.

Additional chances for convection will exist until later in the
week as it appears a strong s/wv trough drops southeast out of the
northern branch of the westerlies. This should bring a fairly
strong cool front south into western Kansas by Wednesday. Details
beyond mid-week are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Have CB/TS for KDDC
based off radar for the first few hours. Convection should
be north of KGCK/KHYS. There will be a bkn080 deck. Winds will be
southwesterly and eventually become W/NW 5-10 kt by morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  80  58  82 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  51  81  56  83 /  20  10  10  30
EHA  49  81  54  84 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  52  81  57  84 /  10  10  10  40
HYS  55  77  57  81 /  50  10  10  30
P28  58  81  62  82 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 272019
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Immediate concern is the areal coverage and intensity of
convection the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. A
relatively cold upper low was moving into west central Kansas this
afternoon. It has developed a negative tilt as a speed max punches
around the southern periphery. Lightning has increased
dramatically under the cold pool across east central Colorado.
Farther east, the westerly boundary layer surge had moved into
my southeast counties. Across my northern counties an easterly
flow has developed with increasing theta-e air. With the cold
system moving east the likelihood of severe will continue into
the early evening hours.

Saturday should be a down day with the upper system far removed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The upper flow becomes favorable again late in the weekend with
lowering heights again across the southwest. Deep boundary layer
moisture will be moving back into the high plains during the early
part of the period. All the deterministic models due indicate at
least a weak s/wv trough moving out late Sunday and these models
generate an MCS looking signal.

Additional chances for convection will exist until later in the
week as it appears a strong s/wv trough drops southeast out of the
northern branch of the westerlies. This should bring a fairly
strong cool front south into western Kansas by Wednesday. Details
beyond mid-week are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Beyond the late afternoon and evening thunderstorms, there is
uncertainty about stratus redeveloping overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  80  58  82 /  40  10  10  50
GCK  51  81  56  83 /  40  10  10  30
EHA  51  81  54  84 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  53  81  57  84 /  20  10  10  40
HYS  55  77  57  81 /  40  10  10  30
P28  58  81  62  82 /  40  10  10  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 valid until 10 PM
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07





000
FXUS63 KDDC 270653
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
153 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An upper level low will slide into the Central High Plains today
then into the remainder of the Central Plains tonight. This will
allow an area of low pressure at the surface to continue to deepen
across southwest Kansas today then shift into central and eastern
Kansas this evening into the overnight period tonight. An
association warm front will extend east to northeast from this
area of low pressure with a cold front extending to the south.
Winds north of the warm front will generally be from the east to
southeast with winds from the southeast south of this front. Winds
behind the cold front will generally curl from the southwest to
northwest as the day progresses. Another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible across central and south central
Kansas during the late afternoon into evening. Damaging wind and
large hail will be the main concern but an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out. Additional storms also look to form across
eastern Colorado and far western Kansas in the late afternoon but
are not expected to become severe. These storms slide eastward as
the evening and early overnight period progresses. Any storms that
develop should move out of western Kansas by midnight then move
out of the area by day break Saturday morning. Skies look to be
partly cloudy today becoming mostly cloudy this evening into the
early overnight hours. Cloudiness then decreases from west to east
overnight. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the
lower 70s across west central Kansas to lower 80s across south
central Kansas. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper
40s across the KS/CO border to upper 50s across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The upper level low will move northeast out of the area Saturday
with westerly downslope flow developing across the Central
Rockies. This will result in lee troughing to developing at the
surface across eastern Colorado by the afternoon. This feature
will allow northwest winds during the day to shift to the south to
southeast Saturday night. No precipitation is expected Saturday
into Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness during the day and
partly cloudy skies overnight. This will be short lived as the
next upper level disturbance moves into the area Sunday increasing
cloudiness with a chance of storms in the afternoon into the
evening hours. The chance of thunderstorms continue into the early
part of next week as a series of upper level disturbances move
into the area. In addition, a persistent southeast flow at the
surface is expected to continue into early next week which will
keep advecting some low level moisture back into western Kansas.
This will not only favor improving chances for thunderstorms next
week but also the lows early next week are expected to be
unseasonably warm. Drier conditions are then expected during the
middle to late part of next week as an upper level ridge builds
across the western United States. However, there still could be a
few isolated thunderstorms during peak heating each afternoon. As
for temperatures, highs Saturday and Sunday look to top out in the
lower 80s then fall to around 80 degrees early next week. Lows
look to only dip into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees through
the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of low pressure with associated warm and cold fronts will
be found across western Kansas this morning. This will lead to
easterly winds at the HYS terminal and northwesterly winds at
the GCK terminal. Wind direction at DDC will be difficult to
predict due to the location of the aforementioned features. I
have placed a northwesterly wind direction in the TAFs for now
but may need to be changed if the boundary slides back west. VFR
conditions will prevail across DDC and GCK terminals overnight
with decreasing cloudiness. The KHYS terminal will remain at VFR
until a few hours before sunrise when low stratus or patchy fog
may form causing MVFR conditions. Any fog that does form should
burn off within a few hours of sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  79  53  82 /  20  30  40  10
GCK  53  75  51  83 /  20  40  40  10
EHA  50  74  51  83 /  10  30  20  10
LBL  52  78  53  83 /  10  30  20  10
HYS  55  78  55  79 /  40  40  40  10
P28  64  82  58  83 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 270607
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An upper level low will slide into the Central High Plains today
then into the remainder of the Central Plains tonight. This will
allow an area of low pressure at the surface to continue to deepen
across southwest Kansas today then shift into central and eastern
Kansas this evening into the overnight period tonight. An
association warm front will extend east to northeast from this
area of low pressure with a cold front extending to the south.
Winds north of the warm front will generally be from the east to
southeast with winds from the southeast south of this front. Winds
behind the cold front will generally curl from the southwest to
northwest as the day progresses. Another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible across central and south central
Kansas during the late afternoon into evening. Damaging wind and
large hail will be the main concern but an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out. Additional storms also look to form across
eastern Colorado and far western Kansas in the late afternoon but
are not expected to become severe. These storms slide eastward as
the evening and early overnight period progresses. Any storms that
develop should move out of western Kansas by midnight then move
out of the area by day break Saturday morning. Skies look to be
partly cloudy today becoming mostly cloudy this evening into the
early overnight hours. Cloudiness then decreases from west to east
overnight. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the
lower 70s across west central Kansas to lower 80s across south
central Kansas. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper
40s across the KS/CO border to upper 50s across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

On Saturday ans the first upper trough will lift northeast into
the Mississippi Valley as a westerly down slope flow develops
across the central Rockies. This will result in a surface trough
of low pressure deepening along the lee of the Rockies and warming
in the 900mb to 850mb level. Based on these temperatures at 0z
Sunday will continue to favor highs in the low to possibly mid 80s
near the Colorado border. Further east northeast there will be
more clouds early in the day with even a slight chance for a few
lingering showers across north central Kansas. These clouds will
move east during the afternoon and temperatures here should climb
back to around 80.

On Sunday the surface pressures will continue to fall along the
lee of the Rockies as another upper level trough begins to cross
the southwestern United States. One upper level disturbance is
still forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF to move from the base of
this eastward moving upper level trough and into the Central
Plains late Sunday. This will result in a chance for scattered
thunderstorms for western Kansas late Sunday and Sunday night.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue through at least the
first half of the work week as the southern branch upper level
trough crosses the southwest United States and a northern branch
upper wave moves east towards the northern and central Rockies.

A persistent southeast flow early next week across western Kansas
will keep advecting some low level moisture back into western
Kansas. This will not only favor improving chances for
thunderstorms next week but also the lows early next week are
expected to be unseasonably warm. The latest CRExtendedFcst_Init
may be a little on the cool side but at this time the trend is
there so will not stray far. During the day early next week it
will be warm and muggy with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of low pressure with associated warm and cold fronts will
be found across western Kansas this morning. This will lead to
easterly winds at the HYS terminal and northwesterly winds at
the GCK terminal. Wind direction at DDC will be difficult to
predict due to the location of the aforementioned features. I
have placed a northwesterly wind direction in the TAFs for now
but may need to be changed if the boundary slides back west. VFR
conditions will prevail across DDC and GCK terminals overnight
with decreasing cloudiness. The KHYS terminal will remain at VFR
until a few hours before sunrise when low stratus or patchy fog
may form causing MVFR conditions. Any fog that does form should
burn off within a few hours of sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  79  53  82 /  20  30  40  10
GCK  53  75  51  83 /  20  40  40  10
EHA  50  74  51  83 /  10  30  20  10
LBL  52  78  53  83 /  10  30  20  10
HYS  55  78  55  79 /  40  40  40  10
P28  64  82  58  83 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 252320
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

This evening there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms north
of a surface boundary that will extend from west to east across
western Kansas. Given the 2-8km mean winds expected any storm that
does develop along this boundary will move quickly northeast.
Still for a short window early this evening a few of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing hail up to the size of
quarters.

Tonight an area of low pressure will deepen along the lee of the
Rockies as an upper level trough begins to move east across the
four corners region. As this surface low deepens overnight a
surface boundary will become nearly stationary either across
southwest Kansas or near the Oklahoma border. Models appear to be
struggling with how far south this front will drop south tonight.
At this time given the general agreement between the NAM, GFS, NMM
and ARW will keep this boundary in southwest and north central
Kansas through 12z Thursday.

South of this surface front there will be a north to south
oriented surface boundary front/dry line will extend south into
eastern portions of the panhandle of Texas. East of this surface
boundary, across northwestern Oklahoma and south central Kansas, a
south to southeast wind along with dew point in the 60s can
expected. This should give rise may give rise to some status and
fog overnight along with lows in the 65 to near 70 degree range.

On Thursday the south to southeast winds east of the north south
oriented dry line will continue to draw more humid low level
moisture back into south central and portions of western Kansas as
the upper level trough continues to approach from southwest. By
late day the upper level trough will begin to move into the Texas
panhandle and as this system approaches late day there will be a
chance for thunderstorms across south central and portions of
southwest Kansas. Some of these storms will be severe along and
east of a dry line that is forecast to be located just east of
Dodge City given the improving upper level dynamics, low level
moisture return along with late day instability, and 0-6km shear.
Hail up to 3 inches will be possible. The chance of tornadoes will
also exist near the dry line and also where this dry line
intersects the stationary front in north central Kansas. At this
time there still is some uncertainty on where these surface
boundaries will be located, however all models indicated the more
favorable area late Thursday will be east of Dodge city.

Convection north of this front Thursday night currently appears
to be located north of the I-70 corridor but this area of
overnight convection will begin drop south into western Kansas
afternoon midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

On Friday and Friday night a 500mb will low slowly moves east
northeast across the west central high plains. As this upper level
system crosses western Kansas during the day the models indicate
that the dry line will move further east into central Kansas and a
cold front will drop south into western Kansas by late day.
Convection along either of these boundaries still look possible,
especially late day and early Friday night. Based on the latest
forecast on the location of these boundaries late day will keep
chance for thunderstorms going east and north of Dodge City. The
better opportunities will be in north central Kansas.

Highs in the 80s for much of south central Kansas given the 850mb
temperatures at 00z Saturday south of the cold front and west of
the dry line. Northwest of the cold front in west central Kansas
temperatures may struggle to warm much higher then the mid 70s
given the increase in cloud cover and the afternoon cooling 900mb
to 850mb temperatures.

On Saturday the upper low will continue to slowly move east
across the central plains and a westerly down slope flow will
begin to improve across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas.
In north central Kansas during the day there will be a chance for
clouds and possibly some lingering precipitation given the
moisture and weak lift west of the upper low as it crosses central
Kansas. Further west there will be more sun with highs climbing
back into the lower 80s.

Sunday will be sunny and warm as a trough of low pressure
develops along the lee of the Rockies. By late day or early Sunday
night the chance for thunderstorms will begin to increase across
western Kansas as moisture begin to return ahead of an upper level
trough that will be approaching the area from the southwest. At
this time there are some timing differences between the GFS and
ECMWF with this late weekend/early next week upper level system so
given this uncertainty will stay close to the CRExtendeFcst_Init
as for precipitation chances for Sunday night into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Stationary boundary draped near GCK/DDC terminals this evening
will bring variable winds the next several hours. Atmosphere is
capped along this boundary through this evening, as such
convection is not expected. E/SE surface flow returns overnight as
moisture surges back into SW KS. Consensus of short term models
indicates IFR/LIFR stratus and fog likely to affect HYS and P28
through 12z Thursday. Included a TEMPO group at HYS for this, where
confidence is highest. Briefly reduced visibility in BR/FG at DDC
around sunrise. No vis restrictions expected at GCK. After 15z
Thu, strong south winds at GCK/DDC 15-25 kts, and SE winds at HYS.
Dryline sharpens just east of DDC after 18z Thu, with scattered
TSRA likely east of DDC. Severe convection with large
hail/tornadoes likely near HYS after 21z. GCK expected to remain
convection free.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  89  56  80 /  10  30  40  20
GCK  51  89  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  54  88  51  76 /   0  10  20  30
LBL  53  89  53  78 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  59  82  58  79 /  20  30  50  30
P28  68  88  62  83 /  10  30  60  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 251924
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
224 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Updated Short and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

This evening there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms north
of a surface boundary that will extend from west to east across
western Kansas. Given the 2-8km mean winds expected any storm that
does develop along this boundary will move quickly northeast.
Still for a short window early this evening a few of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing hail up to the size of
quarters.

Tonight an area of low pressure will deepen along the lee of the
Rockies as an upper level trough begins to move east across the
four corners region. As this surface low deepens overnight a
surface boundary will become nearly stationary either across
southwest Kansas or near the Oklahoma border. Models appear to be
struggling with how far south this front will drop south tonight.
At this time given the general agreement between the NAM, GFS, NMM
and ARW will keep this boundary in southwest and north central
Kansas through 12z Thursday.

South of this surface front there will be a north to south
oriented surface boundary front/dry line will extend south into
eastern portions of the panhandle of Texas. East of this surface
boundary, across northwestern Oklahoma and south central Kansas, a
south to southeast wind along with dew point in the 60s can
expected. This should give rise may give rise to some status and
fog overnight along with lows in the 65 to near 70 degree range.

On Thursday the south to southeast winds east of the north south
oriented dry line will continue to draw more humid low level
moisture back into south central and portions of western Kansas as
the upper level trough continues to approach from southwest. By
late day the upper level trough will begin to move into the Texas
panhandle and as this system approaches late day there will be a
chance for thunderstorms across south central and portions of
southwest Kansas. Some of these storms will be severe along and
east of a dry line that is forecast to be located just east of
Dodge City given the improving upper level dynamics, low level
moisture return along with late day instability, and 0-6km shear.
Hail up to 3 inches will be possible. The chance of tornadoes will
also exist near the dry line and also where this dry line
intersects the stationary front in north central Kansas. At this
time there still is some uncertainty on where these surface
boundaries will be located, however all models indicated the more
favorable area late Thursday will be east of Dodge city.

Convection north of this front Thursday night currently appears
to be located north of the I-70 corridor but this area of
overnight convection will begin drop south into western Kansas
afternoon midnight.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

On Friday and Friday night a 500mb will low slowly moves east
northeast across the west central high plains. As this upper level
system crosses western Kansas during the day the models indicate
that the dry line will move further east into central Kansas and a
cold front will drop south into western Kansas by late day.
Convection along either of these boundaries still look possible,
especially late day and early Friday night. Based on the latest
forecast on the location of these boundaries late day will keep
chance for thunderstorms going east and north of Dodge City. The
better opportunities will be in north central Kansas.

Highs in the 80s for much of south central Kansas given the 850mb
temperatures at 00z Saturday south of the cold front and west of
the dry line. Northwest of the cold front in west central Kansas
temperatures may struggle to warm much higher then the mid 70s
given the increase in cloud cover and the afternoon cooling 900mb
to 850mb temperatures.

On Saturday the upper low will continue to slowly move east
across the central plains and a westerly down slope flow will
begin to improve across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas.
In north central Kansas during the day there will be a chance for
clouds and possibly some lingering precipitation given the
moisture and weak lift west of the upper low as it crosses central
Kansas. Further west there will be more sun with highs climbing
back into the lower 80s.

Sunday will be sunny and warm as a trough of low pressure
develops along the lee of the Rockies. By late day or early Sunday
night the chance for thunderstorms will begin to increase across
western Kansas as moisture begin to return ahead of an upper level
trough that will be approaching the area from the southwest. At
this time there are some timing differences between the GFS and
ECMWF with this late weekend/early next week upper level system so
given this uncertainty will stay close to the CRExtendeFcst_Init
as for precipitation chances for Sunday night into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Low clouds will persist for the next few hours north of a surface
boundary that will be location across north central kansas. The
current IFR ceilings at hays are expected to dissipate by 21z
Wednesday. This surface boundary is forecast to move very little
over the next 24 hours so status and/or fog will once again be
possible later tonight...mainly after midnight. Elsewhere VFR
conditions can be expected. Winds today will be variable given
several surface boundaries present. Winds speeds today and
overnight will be 10 knots or less.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  89  56  80 /  10  30  40  20
GCK  51  89  52  77 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  54  88  51  76 /   0  10  20  30
LBL  53  89  53  78 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  59  82  58  79 /  20  30  50  30
P28  68  88  62  83 /  10  30  60  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert





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