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000
FXUS63 KDDC 191131
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
531 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES FOR WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOWER LEVELS WERE STILL MOIST ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SO THAT DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS, IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF TODAY FOR CLEARING TO PROGRESS AS FAR
EAST AS HAYS AND DODGE CITY. THE BEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING
WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. COOLER AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY AND WHERE THE EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LESS
PRONOUNCED. STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. LOWS
NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME PREDOMINATE AT GCK, DDC AND HYS BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP BY 06Z
SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 191131
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
531 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES FOR WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOWER LEVELS WERE STILL MOIST ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SO THAT DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS, IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF TODAY FOR CLEARING TO PROGRESS AS FAR
EAST AS HAYS AND DODGE CITY. THE BEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING
WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. COOLER AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY AND WHERE THE EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LESS
PRONOUNCED. STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. LOWS
NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME PREDOMINATE AT GCK, DDC AND HYS BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP BY 06Z
SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 190931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
331 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES FOR WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOWER LEVELS WERE STILL MOIST ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SO THAT DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS, IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF TODAY FOR CLEARING TO PROGRESS AS FAR
EAST AS HAYS AND DODGE CITY. THE BEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING
WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. COOLER AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY AND WHERE THE EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LESS
PRONOUNCED. STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. LOWS
NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 190931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
331 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES FOR WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOWER LEVELS WERE STILL MOIST ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SO THAT DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS, IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF TODAY FOR CLEARING TO PROGRESS AS FAR
EAST AS HAYS AND DODGE CITY. THE BEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING
WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. COOLER AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY AND WHERE THE EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LESS
PRONOUNCED. STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. LOWS
NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 190918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 190918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 190600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 190600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 182325
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THINGS WILL START OUT IN THE IFR CATEGORY, AND GET WORSE. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THE CIG AND VSBY WILL BOTH LOWER AROUND 06Z TO
OVC007 AND 3SM BR. BY MORNING OR AROUND 10Z, EXPECT OVC003 AND 2SM
BR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 17Z FRIDAY, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 182325
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THINGS WILL START OUT IN THE IFR CATEGORY, AND GET WORSE. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THE CIG AND VSBY WILL BOTH LOWER AROUND 06Z TO
OVC007 AND 3SM BR. BY MORNING OR AROUND 10Z, EXPECT OVC003 AND 2SM
BR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 17Z FRIDAY, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERECNES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTERHLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERECNES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTERHLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  25  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  23  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  23  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  25  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  23  45  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  28  42  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  25  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  23  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  23  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  25  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  23  45  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  28  42  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181442
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
842 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 181438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
838 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
838 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|





000
FXUS63 KDDC 180959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|





000
FXUS63 KDDC 180959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|





000
FXUS63 KDDC 180937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 / 100  10  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60   0  10  10
EHA  30  40  30  48 /  40   0  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40   0  10  10
HYS  25  33  25  42 /  70  10  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 / 100  10  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60   0  10  10
EHA  30  40  30  48 /  40   0  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40   0  10  10
HYS  25  33  25  42 /  70  10  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172353
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  32  40  30  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  25  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172353
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  32  40  30  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  25  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  29  43 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  30  37  27  45 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  30  40  28  47 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  32  39  29  45 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  26  33  26  41 /  80  20   0   0
P28  32  37  30  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  29  43 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  30  37  27  45 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  30  40  28  47 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  32  39  29  45 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  26  33  26  41 /  80  20   0   0
P28  32  37  30  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  32  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  30  37  31  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  30  40  32  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  33  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  27  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  32  37  34  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  32  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  30  37  31  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  30  40  32  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  33  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  27  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  32  37  34  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  30  37  32 /  20  70  30   0
GCK  44  30  37  31 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  50  30  40  32 /  20  40  10   0
LBL  47  32  39  33 /  20  40  20   0
HYS  35  26  33  27 /  20  80  20   0
P28  38  30  37  34 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 171706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  30  37  32 /  20  70  30   0
GCK  44  30  37  31 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  50  30  40  32 /  20  40  10   0
LBL  47  32  39  33 /  20  40  20   0
HYS  35  26  33  27 /  20  80  20   0
P28  38  30  37  34 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171507
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
907 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT
WHERE IFR CIGS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  20  70  30   0
GCK  43  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  20  30  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  20  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT
WHERE IFR CIGS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT
WHERE IFR CIGS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 171004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170723
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  29  37  29 /  20  60  30   0
GCK  47  28  40  27 /  10  40  20   0
EHA  50  28  43  28 /  10  30  10   0
LBL  48  29  41  29 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  40  26  34  26 /  10  50  20   0
P28  42  31  38  30 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170723
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  29  37  29 /  20  60  30   0
GCK  47  28  40  27 /  10  40  20   0
EHA  50  28  43  28 /  10  30  10   0
LBL  48  29  41  29 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  40  26  34  26 /  10  50  20   0
P28  42  31  38  30 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170723
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  29  37  29 /  20  60  30   0
GCK  47  28  40  27 /  10  40  20   0
EHA  50  28  43  28 /  10  30  10   0
LBL  48  29  41  29 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  40  26  34  26 /  10  50  20   0
P28  42  31  38  30 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170559
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM AND GFS EVEN HINT AT PERIOD OF
IMPROVING 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. INITIALLY DRIZZLE WILL
BE MAIN WEATHER TYPE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND IMPROVING
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS THERE
WILL BE PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY. AS
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN
KANSAS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. NET 24 HOUR
850MB TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 1C TO 3C. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND AND
DECREASING CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMER MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FURTHER EAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS COOLER
THAN THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE.

WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES ON SATURDAY AND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SMALL, HOWEVER THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  29  37 /   0  20  60  20
GCK  25  47  28  36 /   0  10  40  20
EHA  32  50  28  41 /   0  10  30  20
LBL  30  48  29  40 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  20  40  26  35 /   0  10  50  30
P28  25  42  31  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170559
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM AND GFS EVEN HINT AT PERIOD OF
IMPROVING 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. INITIALLY DRIZZLE WILL
BE MAIN WEATHER TYPE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND IMPROVING
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS THERE
WILL BE PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY. AS
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN
KANSAS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. NET 24 HOUR
850MB TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 1C TO 3C. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND AND
DECREASING CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMER MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FURTHER EAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS COOLER
THAN THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE.

WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES ON SATURDAY AND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SMALL, HOWEVER THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  29  37 /   0  20  60  20
GCK  25  47  28  36 /   0  10  40  20
EHA  32  50  28  41 /   0  10  30  20
LBL  30  48  29  40 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  20  40  26  35 /   0  10  50  30
P28  25  42  31  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 162332
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
532 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM AND GFS EVEN HINT AT PERIOD OF
IMPROVING 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. INITIALLY DRIZZLE WILL
BE MAIN WEATHER TYPE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND IMPROVING
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS THERE
WILL BE PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY. AS
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN
KANSAS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. NET 24 HOUR
850MB TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 1C TO 3C. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND AND
DECREASING CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMER MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FURTHER EAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS COOLER
THAN THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE.

WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES ON SATURDAY AND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SMALL, HOWEVER THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  29  37 /   0  20  60  20
GCK  25  47  28  36 /   0  10  40  20
EHA  32  50  28  41 /   0  10  30  20
LBL  30  48  29  40 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  20  40  26  35 /   0  10  50  30
P28  25  42  31  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM AND GFS EVEN HINT AT PERIOD OF
IMPROVING 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. INITIALLY DRIZZLE WILL
BE MAIN WEATHER TYPE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND IMPROVING
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS THERE
WILL BE PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY. AS
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN
KANSAS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. NET 24 HOUR
850MB TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 1C TO 3C. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND AND
DECREASING CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMER MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FURTHER EAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS COOLER
THAN THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE.

WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES ON SATURDAY AND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SMALL, HOWEVER THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  30  39 /   0  20  30  20
GCK  25  47  28  39 /   0  10  30  20
EHA  32  50  29  42 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  30  48  30  42 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  20  40  25  35 /   0  10  30  30
P28  25  42  32  40 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM AND GFS EVEN HINT AT PERIOD OF
IMPROVING 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. INITIALLY DRIZZLE WILL
BE MAIN WEATHER TYPE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON 12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND IMPROVING
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS THERE
WILL BE PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY. AS
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN
KANSAS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY THE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. NET 24 HOUR
850MB TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 1C TO 3C. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND AND
DECREASING CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMER MOSGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FURTHER EAST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS COOLER
THAN THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE.

WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES ON SATURDAY AND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SMALL, HOWEVER THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  30  39 /   0  20  30  20
GCK  25  47  28  39 /   0  10  30  20
EHA  32  50  29  42 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  30  48  30  42 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  20  40  25  35 /   0  10  30  30
P28  25  42  32  40 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  30 /   0   0  20  30
GCK  40  25  47  28 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  43  32  50  29 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  30 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  25 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  30 /   0   0  20  30
GCK  40  25  47  28 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  43  32  50  29 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  30 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  25 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE ONLY CHALLENGE WILL COME
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AS SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE SLIGHT INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD INCREASE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENOUGH AS WELL. DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE/GRIDDED MODEL 2-METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER)...WITH LOWS IN THESE AREAS IN THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  31 /   0   0  20  20
GCK  40  25  47  30 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  43  32  50  30 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  32 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  28 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 161700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE ONLY CHALLENGE WILL COME
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AS SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE SLIGHT INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD INCREASE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENOUGH AS WELL. DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE/GRIDDED MODEL 2-METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER)...WITH LOWS IN THESE AREAS IN THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  31 /   0   0  20  20
GCK  40  25  47  30 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  43  32  50  30 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  32 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  28 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161533
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
933 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE ONLY CHALLENGE WILL COME
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AS SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE SLIGHT INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD INCREASE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENOUGH AS WELL. DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE/GRIDDED MODEL 2-METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER)...WITH LOWS IN THESE AREAS IN THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 8-12 KT BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  31 /   0   0  20  20
GCK  40  25  47  30 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  43  32  50  30 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  32 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  28 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161533
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
933 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE ONLY CHALLENGE WILL COME
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AS SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE SLIGHT INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD INCREASE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENOUGH AS WELL. DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE/GRIDDED MODEL 2-METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER)...WITH LOWS IN THESE AREAS IN THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 8-12 KT BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  31 /   0   0  20  20
GCK  40  25  47  30 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  43  32  50  30 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  32 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  28 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN





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