000
FXUS63 KDDC 201154
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
654 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY COLD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. A
MINOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE DATELINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS NEAR 150W, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE NORTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA FINALLY WILL EJECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE, AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. COOL AIR WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES,
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER FORMING IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE COLORADO CLUSTER SHOULD RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER CLUSTER PROBABLY WILL FORM A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WARM SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS WILL
SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FARTHER
NORTH.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS PROMINENT IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA ACROSS
JAPAN INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS STRONG JET WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF MAY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TO
NONEXISTENT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL,
AND THE LOW POPS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WERE REMOVED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE QUIET IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH H8 DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDINESS AOA 080. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES
AROUND 080 AFTER 19Z. LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40KT MAY OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 48 77 49 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 76 47 75 47 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 75 47 77 48 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 77 47 78 49 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 77 47 73 48 / 20 20 10 10
P28 80 52 79 52 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...RUTHI
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200904
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY COLD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. A
MINOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE DATELINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS NEAR 150W, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE NORTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA FINALLY WILL EJECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE, AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. COOL AIR WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES,
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER FORMING IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE COLORADO CLUSTER SHOULD RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER CLUSTER PROBABLY WILL FORM A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WARM SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS WILL
SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FARTHER
NORTH.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS PROMINENT IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA ACROSS
JAPAN INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS STRONG JET WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF MAY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TO
NONEXISTENT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL,
AND THE LOW POPS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WERE REMOVED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE QUIET IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH H8 DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 48 77 49 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 76 47 75 47 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 75 47 77 48 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 77 47 78 49 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 77 47 73 48 / 20 20 10 10
P28 80 52 79 52 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200740
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 48 77 52 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 76 47 75 50 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 75 47 77 51 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 77 47 79 52 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 77 47 72 51 / 20 20 10 10
P28 80 52 80 55 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200507
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 77 52 81 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 49 75 50 81 / 20 10 10 10
EHA 49 77 51 84 / 20 10 10 0
LBL 50 79 52 84 / 20 10 10 10
HYS 50 72 51 77 / 20 20 10 10
P28 55 80 55 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200438
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS NORTHWEST AND 10KTS OR
LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS CONVECTION CROSSES HAYS AND NEAR THE
DDC AIRPORTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 30 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 10 20 20 10
EHA 49 75 49 77 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 10 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 10 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
000
FXUS63 KDDC 192305
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS NORTHWEST AND 10KTS OR
LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS CONVECTION CROSSES HAYS AND NEAR THE
DDC AIRPORTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 30 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 30 20 20 10
EHA 49 75 49 77 / 30 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 40 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
000
FXUS63 KDDC 192044
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL COOLING THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 49 75 49 77 / 20 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 20 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 192003
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AS WARM AIR FLOWS INTO CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT IS CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE
NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AROUND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES GYRE AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RIDGING AROUND 150-160W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF
THE DATELINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FINALLY WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS WEEK, AND
A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUBSEQUENTLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO KANSAS AND PROVIDE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK
DOWN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE GFS.
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS THAT FAR
IN THE FUTURE, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKY PATTERN
THIS MONTH. WITH A HUGE POOL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC AROUND 150W, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO TEND TOWARD A
PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR
AT LEAST THE REST OF MAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY, AND MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEBRASKA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DIURNALLY
MODULATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER
MINOR WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROPAGATES EAST, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE MINIMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS TO SHIFT THE
FAVORED AREA FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL COOLING THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 49 76 48 76 / 20 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 20 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 191656
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ENTER THE TROUGH AXIS THEN NOSE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD SETTING UP INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG) AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE ADVANCES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. STILL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENFORCE STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
KANSAS DRIFTS FURTHER EAST TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C)
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AS WARM AIR FLOWS INTO CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT IS CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE
NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AROUND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES GYRE AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RIDGING AROUND 150-160W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF
THE DATELINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FINALLY WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS WEEK, AND
A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUBSEQUENTLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO KANSAS AND PROVIDE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK
DOWN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE GFS.
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS THAT FAR
IN THE FUTURE, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKY PATTERN
THIS MONTH. WITH A HUGE POOL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC AROUND 150W, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO TEND TOWARD A
PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR
AT LEAST THE REST OF MAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY, AND MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEBRASKA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DIURNALLY
MODULATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER
MINOR WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROPAGATES EAST, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE MINIMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS TO SHIFT THE
FAVORED AREA FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL COOLING THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 52 79 50 / 30 20 30 20
GCK 82 50 77 49 / 40 20 30 20
EHA 83 50 77 49 / 20 20 30 20
LBL 85 50 78 50 / 30 20 30 20
HYS 83 52 77 50 / 40 20 30 20
P28 88 57 82 55 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 191202
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F),
INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE 20S(F) BEHIND THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ENTER THE TROUGH AXIS THEN NOSE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD SETTING UP INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG) AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE ADVANCES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. STILL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENFORCE STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
KANSAS DRIFTS FURTHER EAST TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C)
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AS WARM AIR FLOWS INTO CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT IS CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE
NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AROUND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES GYRE AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RIDGING AROUND 150-160W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF
THE DATELINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FINALLY WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS WEEK, AND
A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUBSEQUENTLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO KANSAS AND PROVIDE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK
DOWN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE GFS.
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS THAT FAR
IN THE FUTURE, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKY PATTERN
THIS MONTH. WITH A HUGE POOL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC AROUND 150W, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO TEND TOWARD A
PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR
AT LEAST THE REST OF MAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY, AND MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEBRASKA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DIURNALLY
MODULATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER
MINOR WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROPAGATES EAST, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE MINIMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS TO SHIFT THE
FAVORED AREA FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AOA100. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE VERY LITTLE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THIS
EVENING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY
AND WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 15KT AFTER
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES 050-060 AFTER 19Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 52 79 50 / 40 20 30 20
GCK 82 50 77 49 / 50 20 30 20
EHA 83 50 77 49 / 20 20 30 20
LBL 85 50 78 50 / 30 20 30 20
HYS 83 52 77 50 / 50 20 30 20
P28 88 57 82 55 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...RUTHI
000
FXUS63 KDDC 190904
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F),
INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE 20S(F) BEHIND THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ENTER THE TROUGH AXIS THEN NOSE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD SETTING UP INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG) AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE ADVANCES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. STILL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENFORCE STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
KANSAS DRIFTS FURTHER EAST TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C)
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AS WARM AIR FLOWS INTO CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT IS CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE
NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AROUND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES GYRE AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RIDGING AROUND 150-160W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF
THE DATELINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FINALLY WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS WEEK, AND
A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUBSEQUENTLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO KANSAS AND PROVIDE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK
DOWN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE GFS.
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS THAT FAR
IN THE FUTURE, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKY PATTERN
THIS MONTH. WITH A HUGE POOL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC AROUND 150W, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO TEND TOWARD A
PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR
AT LEAST THE REST OF MAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY, AND MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEBRASKA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DIURNALLY
MODULATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER
MINOR WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROPAGATES EAST, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE MINIMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS TO SHIFT THE
FAVORED AREA FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TO THE
EAST, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF KGCK SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF KGCK TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 52 79 50 / 40 20 30 20
GCK 82 50 77 49 / 50 20 30 20
EHA 83 50 77 49 / 20 20 30 20
LBL 85 50 78 50 / 30 20 30 20
HYS 83 52 77 50 / 50 20 30 20
P28 88 57 82 55 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 190750
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F),
INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE 20S(F) BEHIND THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ENTER THE TROUGH AXIS THEN NOSE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD SETTING UP INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG) AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE ADVANCES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. STILL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENFORCE STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
KANSAS DRIFTS FURTHER EAST TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C)
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY LINE WILL
BE WEAKENING ACROSS OUT FAR EASTERN CWA, AND THERE WILL BE 20
PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CEASE BY 03Z MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD EASILY GET
TRIGGERED NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ONLY
20 PERCENT CHANCES WILL BE THERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ALONG
THURSDAY. THAT UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BIG IN NATURE, SO
THURSDAY WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES AND THOSE WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY THIS EARLY IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REALIZED, BUT THAT CAN BE MONITORED MORE CLOSELY
AS THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A COOL DOWN FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED. THEN ON SATURDAY, A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
BE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TO THE
EAST, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF KGCK SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF KGCK TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 52 79 50 / 40 20 30 20
GCK 82 50 77 49 / 50 20 30 20
EHA 83 50 77 49 / 20 20 30 20
LBL 85 50 78 50 / 30 20 30 20
HYS 83 52 77 50 / 50 20 30 20
P28 88 57 82 55 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 190503
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F),
INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE 20S(F) BEHIND THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT
SAT MAY 18 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STRONG WARM TONGUE AROUND 800 MB. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF THIS DRYLINE. VERY
MOIST AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE, CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM FIRST JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY LINE WILL
BE WEAKENING ACROSS OUT FAR EASTERN CWA, AND THERE WILL BE 20
PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CEASE BY 03Z MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD EASILY GET
TRIGGERED NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ONLY
20 PERCENT CHANCES WILL BE THERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ALONG
THURSDAY. THAT UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BIG IN NATURE, SO
THURSDAY WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES AND THOSE WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY THIS EARLY IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REALIZED, BUT THAT CAN BE MONITORED MORE CLOSELY
AS THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A COOL DOWN FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED. THEN ON SATURDAY, A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
BE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
THIS MORNING. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TO THE
EAST, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF KGCK SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF KGCK TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 79 50 75 / 20 30 20 10
GCK 52 77 49 73 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 52 74 49 75 / 20 20 20 10
LBL 52 77 50 77 / 20 30 20 10
HYS 54 77 50 70 / 20 30 20 20
P28 58 82 55 78 / 20 30 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 190327
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F),
INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS
THE 20S(F) BEHIND THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT
SAT MAY 18 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STRONG WARM TONGUE AROUND 800 MB. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF THIS DRYLINE. VERY
MOIST AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE, CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM FIRST JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY LINE WILL
BE WEAKENING ACROSS OUT FAR EASTERN CWA, AND THERE WILL BE 20
PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CEASE BY 03Z MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD EASILY GET
TRIGGERED NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ONLY
20 PERCENT CHANCES WILL BE THERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ALONG
THURSDAY. THAT UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BIG IN NATURE, SO
THURSDAY WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES AND THOSE WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY THIS EARLY IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REALIZED, BUT THAT CAN BE MONITORED MORE CLOSELY
AS THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A COOL DOWN FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED. THEN ON SATURDAY, A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
BE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z OR SO, BUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KHYS AND JUST EAST OF KDDC THROUGH 04Z. DUE TO
FRESH RAIN AND HUMID CONDITIONS, LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BRING
IFR VSBY AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THREE SITES AFTER 09Z, BUT
KHYS MAY ONLY GO DOWN TO OVC015 AND 3SM BR, WHILE KDDC AND KGCK
MAY GO ALL THE WAY DOWN TO OVC003 AND 1SM BR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 80 53 79 / 30 50 10 30
GCK 60 79 52 77 / 10 50 10 20
EHA 60 80 52 74 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 60 82 52 77 / 10 40 10 30
HYS 63 80 54 77 / 70 50 20 30
P28 65 85 58 82 / 70 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 182333
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT
SAT MAY 18 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STRONG WARM TONGUE AROUND 800 MB. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF THIS DRYLINE. VERY
MOIST AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE, CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM FIRST JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY LINE WILL
BE WEAKENING ACROSS OUT FAR EASTERN CWA, AND THERE WILL BE 20
PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CEASE BY 03Z MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD EASILY GET
TRIGGERED NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ONLY
20 PERCENT CHANCES WILL BE THERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ALONG
THURSDAY. THAT UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BIG IN NATURE, SO
THURSDAY WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES AND THOSE WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY THIS EARLY IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REALIZED, BUT THAT CAN BE MONITORED MORE CLOSELY
AS THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A COOL DOWN FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED. THEN ON SATURDAY, A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
BE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z OR SO, BUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KHYS AND JUST EAST OF KDDC THROUGH 04Z. DUE TO
FRESH RAIN AND HUMID CONDITIONS, LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BRING
IFR VSBY AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THREE SITES AFTER 09Z, BUT
KHYS MAY ONLY GO DOWN TO OVC015 AND 3SM BR, WHILE KDDC AND KGCK
MAY GO ALL THE WAY DOWN TO OVC003 AND 1SM BR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 80 53 79 / 30 50 10 30
GCK 60 79 52 77 / 10 50 10 20
EHA 60 80 52 74 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 60 82 52 77 / 10 40 10 30
HYS 63 80 54 77 / 70 50 20 30
P28 65 85 58 82 / 70 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 182024
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STRONG WARM TONGUE AROUND 800 MB. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF THIS DRYLINE. VERY
MOIST AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE, CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM FIRST JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY LINE WILL
BE WEAKENING ACROSS OUT FAR EASTERN CWA, AND THERE WILL BE 20
PERCENT POPS GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
CEASE BY 03Z MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 PERCENT POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AND A SHOWER OR STORM COULD EASILY GET
TRIGGERED NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ONLY
20 PERCENT CHANCES WILL BE THERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ALONG
THURSDAY. THAT UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BIG IN NATURE, SO
THURSDAY WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES AND THOSE WILL
EXTEND CLEAR INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY THIS EARLY IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE REALIZED, BUT THAT CAN BE MONITORED MORE CLOSELY
AS THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A COOL DOWN FROM SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE
SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED. THEN ON SATURDAY, A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
BE SEASONAL, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HAYS AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR DUE TO LEFT OVER CLOUDS AOA030 FROM
LAST NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FORM ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FIRST
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. I HAVE KEPT A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
BE UPDATED LATER ON WHEN STORMS START TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 80 53 79 / 30 50 20 30
GCK 60 79 52 77 / 10 50 20 20
EHA 60 80 52 74 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 60 82 52 77 / 10 40 10 30
HYS 63 80 54 77 / 70 50 30 30
P28 65 85 58 82 / 70 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181955
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STRONG WARM TONGUE AROUND 800 MB. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EAST OF THIS DRYLINE. VERY
MOIST AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE, CAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000 J/KG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM FIRST JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UTAH TO
ARIZONA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY,
AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF A
CLOSED CYCLONE IN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG JET
SEGMENT WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
127W WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY BLOCKY FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND UNSEASONABLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOL SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EAST OF
THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE FOR THE LAST WEEK NEAR THE
MARITIME CONTINENT AND ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT A COHERENT CLUSTER PROJECTING ONTO A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SIGNAL. THE GFS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON A FASTER PROPAGATING MODE OF CONVECTION, AND
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. RELATIVE
ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM STILL IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE
TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE. THE GENERAL FLOW IS TRENDING WEAKLY TOWARD
PHASE 8 OF THE BERRY-WEICKMANN PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAM, AND THIS PATTERN
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY, AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH SURFACE
HEATING DURING THE DAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE, THERE PROBABLY WILL BE HAIL WITH A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS WILL REACH ONLY THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CARRY A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO KANSAS MONDAY, AND CHANCES FOR
LARGELY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL CONTINUE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. BY
THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXTENSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE, AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH WEAKENING THE
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREADING WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INTO WESTERN KANSAS, BUT THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME THAT HAS
PERSISTED THIS MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HAYS AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR DUE TO LEFT OVER CLOUDS AOA030 FROM
LAST NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FORM ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FIRST
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. I HAVE KEPT A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
BE UPDATED LATER ON WHEN STORMS START TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 80 53 79 / 30 50 20 30
GCK 60 79 52 77 / 10 50 20 20
EHA 60 80 52 74 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 60 82 52 77 / 10 40 10 30
HYS 63 80 54 77 / 70 50 30 30
P28 65 85 58 82 / 70 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181738
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, A JET CORE EXITING THE TROUGH
AXIS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT,
INCLUDING STRONG DIVERGENT FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.
MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD, IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INITIALLY,
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
CAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASING AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHEAR PROFILE IS SUCH THAT TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING
ONCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT
H85 WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
TO JUST ABOVE 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE 80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR LOWS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) WITH MID TO UPPER 50S(F) POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AS A LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UTAH TO
ARIZONA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY,
AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF A
CLOSED CYCLONE IN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG JET
SEGMENT WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
127W WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY BLOCKY FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND UNSEASONABLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOL SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EAST OF
THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE FOR THE LAST WEEK NEAR THE
MARITIME CONTINENT AND ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT A COHERENT CLUSTER PROJECTING ONTO A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SIGNAL. THE GFS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON A FASTER PROPAGATING MODE OF CONVECTION, AND
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. RELATIVE
ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM STILL IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE
TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE. THE GENERAL FLOW IS TRENDING WEAKLY TOWARD
PHASE 8 OF THE BERRY-WEICKMANN PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAM, AND THIS PATTERN
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY, AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH SURFACE
HEATING DURING THE DAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE, THERE PROBABLY WILL BE HAIL WITH A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS WILL REACH ONLY THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CARRY A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO KANSAS MONDAY, AND CHANCES FOR
LARGELY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL CONTINUE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. BY
THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXTENSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE, AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH WEAKENING THE
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREADING WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INTO WESTERN KANSAS, BUT THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME THAT HAS
PERSISTED THIS MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HAYS AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR DUE TO LEFT OVER CLOUDS AOA030 FROM
LAST NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FORM ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FIRST
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. I HAVE KEPT A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
BE UPDATED LATER ON WHEN STORMS START TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 60 82 53 / 60 40 30 20
GCK 90 58 79 52 / 30 20 30 20
EHA 95 57 80 52 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 95 58 83 52 / 10 10 20 10
HYS 88 63 79 54 / 60 60 40 30
P28 88 65 86 58 / 60 60 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181209
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
709 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, A JET CORE EXITING THE TROUGH
AXIS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT,
INCLUDING STRONG DIVERGENT FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.
MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD, IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INITIALLY,
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
CAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASING AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHEAR PROFILE IS SUCH THAT TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING
ONCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT
H85 WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
TO JUST ABOVE 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE 80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR LOWS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) WITH MID TO UPPER 50S(F) POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AS A LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UTAH TO
ARIZONA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY,
AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF A
CLOSED CYCLONE IN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG JET
SEGMENT WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
127W WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY BLOCKY FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND UNSEASONABLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOL SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EAST OF
THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE FOR THE LAST WEEK NEAR THE
MARITIME CONTINENT AND ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT A COHERENT CLUSTER PROJECTING ONTO A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SIGNAL. THE GFS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON A FASTER PROPAGATING MODE OF CONVECTION, AND
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. RELATIVE
ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM STILL IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE
TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE. THE GENERAL FLOW IS TRENDING WEAKLY TOWARD
PHASE 8 OF THE BERRY-WEICKMANN PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAM, AND THIS PATTERN
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY, AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH SURFACE
HEATING DURING THE DAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE, THERE PROBABLY WILL BE HAIL WITH A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS WILL REACH ONLY THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CARRY A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO KANSAS MONDAY, AND CHANCES FOR
LARGELY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL CONTINUE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. BY
THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXTENSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE, AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH WEAKENING THE
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREADING WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INTO WESTERN KANSAS, BUT THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME THAT HAS
PERSISTED THIS MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND MIST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
14Z. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z, AND
STRATUS GRADUALLY WILL ERODE TO SCT-BKN015-020 BY 17Z. A MINOR UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
21Z, AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH BASES AOA120 WILL APPROACH DDC AROUND
1430Z AND HYS BY 17Z.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY 02Z. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER TODAY, AND A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST
TO NEAR A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO MEADE BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXTREME INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE, AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WILL FORM AFTER 21Z AND
PROPAGATE EAST OF HYS AND DDC BY 02Z.
THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 60 82 53 / 20 40 30 20
GCK 90 58 79 52 / 20 20 30 20
EHA 95 57 80 52 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 95 58 83 52 / 10 10 20 10
HYS 88 63 79 54 / 30 60 40 30
P28 88 65 86 58 / 30 60 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...RUTHI
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180901
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
401 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, A JET CORE EXITING THE TROUGH
AXIS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT,
INCLUDING STRONG DIVERGENT FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.
MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD, IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INITIALLY,
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
CAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASING AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHEAR PROFILE IS SUCH THAT TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING
ONCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT
H85 WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
TO JUST ABOVE 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE 80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR LOWS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) WITH MID TO UPPER 50S(F) POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AS A LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN UTAH TO
ARIZONA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY,
AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF A
CLOSED CYCLONE IN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG JET
SEGMENT WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
127W WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY BLOCKY FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND UNSEASONABLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COOL SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EAST OF
THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE FOR THE LAST WEEK NEAR THE
MARITIME CONTINENT AND ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT A COHERENT CLUSTER PROJECTING ONTO A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SIGNAL. THE GFS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON A FASTER PROPAGATING MODE OF CONVECTION, AND
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. RELATIVE
ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM STILL IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE
TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE. THE GENERAL FLOW IS TRENDING WEAKLY TOWARD
PHASE 8 OF THE BERRY-WEICKMANN PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAM, AND THIS PATTERN
FAVORS CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS NEAR THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY, AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH SURFACE
HEATING DURING THE DAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE, THERE PROBABLY WILL BE HAIL WITH A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS WILL REACH ONLY THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CARRY A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO KANSAS MONDAY, AND CHANCES FOR
LARGELY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL WILL CONTINUE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. BY
THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXTENSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE, AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH WEAKENING THE
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREADING WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INTO WESTERN KANSAS, BUT THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME THAT HAS
PERSISTED THIS MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
RISE WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY BEGINNING GENERALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20KT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE COLORADO BORDER INTO KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 60 82 53 / 20 40 30 20
GCK 90 58 79 52 / 20 20 30 20
EHA 95 57 80 52 / 0 10 20 20
LBL 95 58 83 52 / 10 10 20 10
HYS 88 63 79 54 / 30 60 40 30
P28 88 65 86 58 / 30 60 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180747
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATE TO FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, A JET CORE EXITING THE TROUGH
AXIS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT,
INCLUDING STRONG DIVERGENT FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.
MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD, IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INITIALLY,
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
CAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASING AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHEAR PROFILE IS SUCH THAT TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING
ONCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT
H85 WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
TO JUST ABOVE 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE 80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR LOWS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) WITH MID TO UPPER 50S(F) POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AS A LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST, SWINGS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE
THIS MORNING, BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS AND STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WHILE ALSO INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN TWO EXPECTED EXTREMES OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, UPPER 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY VIA MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG EXPECTED BY
MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VIA 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C WITH THIS
EML EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF
THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF CONVECTION FAILS TO
GENERATE. OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
NOT ONLY ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT ALSO DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM AGL
WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ANY SUPERCELL LASTING
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP THERMAL MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF
10-15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AND OPTED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LEAVING ONLY WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY BUT SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
PORTIONS OF KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TURN QUIET AS THE REMNANT CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER SOME
WEAK HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. QUESTIONS
STILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHETHER
THE LEE TROUGH CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH UNDER THIS SETUP TO PULL THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO KANSAS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNKNOWN. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES EXISTING
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
RISE WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY BEGINNING GENERALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20KT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE COLORADO BORDER INTO KANSAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A DRYLINE IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAWING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR TO BELOW
15 PERCENT. MEANWHILE, LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS INDICATE H85 AND H7 WINDS OF AROUND
20 TO 30KT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD.
THIS WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DURATION
OF SUCH CONDITIONS REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 60 82 53 / 20 40 30 20
GCK 90 58 79 52 / 20 20 30 20
EHA 95 57 80 52 / 0 10 20 20
LBL 95 58 83 52 / 10 10 20 10
HYS 88 63 79 54 / 30 60 40 30
P28 88 65 86 58 / 30 60 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, A JET CORE EXITING THE TROUGH
AXIS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT,
INCLUDING STRONG DIVERGENT FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.
MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD, IS EXPECTED
TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INITIALLY,
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
CAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASING AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHEAR PROFILE IS SUCH THAT TORNADOES MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING
ONCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT
H85 WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
TO JUST ABOVE 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE 80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR LOWS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) WITH MID TO UPPER 50S(F) POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AS A LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST, SWINGS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE
THIS MORNING, BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS AND STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WHILE ALSO INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN TWO EXPECTED EXTREMES OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, UPPER 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY VIA MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG EXPECTED BY
MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VIA 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C WITH THIS
EML EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF
THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF CONVECTION FAILS TO
GENERATE. OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
NOT ONLY ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT ALSO DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM AGL
WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ANY SUPERCELL LASTING
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP THERMAL MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF
10-15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AND OPTED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LEAVING ONLY WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY BUT SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
PORTIONS OF KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TURN QUIET AS THE REMNANT CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER SOME
WEAK HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. QUESTIONS
STILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHETHER
THE LEE TROUGH CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH UNDER THIS SETUP TO PULL THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO KANSAS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNKNOWN. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES EXISTING
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
RISE WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY BEGINNING GENERALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 25KT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO
BORDER INTO KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 60 83 55 / 20 40 20 10
GCK 90 58 81 52 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 95 57 81 53 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 95 58 84 53 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 88 63 81 55 / 30 60 30 20
P28 88 65 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180505
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1205 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
TONIGHT:
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 70S
THIS EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 68 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE. ALL THE
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG FORMATION AS VISIBILITY
FIELDS DROP SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 06-09Z. THIS
CERTAINLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY RICH MOISTURE
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM OKLAHOMA ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT:
DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF IN THE 13-15Z TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE MORNING INSOLATION...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ON
PRETTY TOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE. EVENTUALLY...EVEN
THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE THE CEILING SCATTER OUT AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM INCREASING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LEAD UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK TIED TO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING INTO COLORADO BY LATE MORNING...THIS LEAD JET WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 700MB WILL EXIST ALONG
THIS LEAD JET STREAK.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE JET CORE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE DAKOTAS. FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS LEAD JET...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO PROMOTE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT OF A
CYCLONE. THE LATEST NAM12 MODEL SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW DOWN TO 994
OR 995MB BY LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS
BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THAT WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE FROM ALL THE STRATUS FROM EARLIER IN
THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM WILL ALLOW HOT, DRY AIR TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD TO ROUGHLY A JOHNSON-MONTEZUMA-SLAPOUT, OK
LINE BY 22Z. THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE TWO AIRMASS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WILL EXCEED 4000 J/KG WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE
PARCELS OF MID 80S OVER UPPER 60S DEWPOINT (DEGF).
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH
0-6KM AGL BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS OR SO. VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE
OF BASEBALLS OR PERHAPS LARGER UP TO SOFTBALLS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE 6 TO 9PM TIME FRAME ONCE SUPERCELLS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. NOW TO THE TORNADO THREAT -- THERE IS REASON FOR GREAT
CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-LIVED, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
3500-4500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-1KM AGL HELICITY RAMPING UP TO THE
300-400 J/KG RANGE AS WELL (THANKS TO THE DYNAMIC LOW LEVEL JET THAT
DEVELOPS JUST AFTER SUNSET). THIS IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY BOTH FROM KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED AND STRONG TORNADOES THAT
THRIVE DURING THE POST-SUNSET HOURS. THERE MAY ONLY BE ONE OR TWO
STORMS THAT THRIVE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BE
GREAT FROM JUST ONE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM. EVENTUALLY DURING THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE TORNADO THREAT...AND SUPERCELL
STORMS MAY DISSOLVE ALL TOGETHER BY 05 OR 06Z AS THE STORMS MOVE
TOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST, SWINGS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE
THIS MORNING, BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS AND STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WHILE ALSO INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN TWO EXPECTED EXTREMES OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, UPPER 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY VIA MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG EXPECTED BY
MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VIA 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C WITH THIS
EML EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF
THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF CONVECTION FAILS TO
GENERATE. OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
NOT ONLY ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT ALSO DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM AGL
WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ANY SUPERCELL LASTING
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP THERMAL MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF
10-15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AND OPTED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LEAVING ONLY WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY BUT SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
PORTIONS OF KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TURN QUIET AS THE REMNANT CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER SOME
WEAK HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. QUESTIONS
STILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHETHER
THE LEE TROUGH CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH UNDER THIS SETUP TO PULL THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO KANSAS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNKNOWN. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES EXISTING
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
RISE WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY BEGINNING GENERALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 25KT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO
BORDER INTO KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 83 55 81 / 30 20 10 20
GCK 58 81 52 78 / 20 20 10 30
EHA 58 81 53 77 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 58 84 53 81 / 10 10 10 30
HYS 63 81 55 78 / 50 30 20 20
P28 65 87 60 84 / 50 20 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-084>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180352
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
TONIGHT:
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 70S
THIS EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 68 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE. ALL THE
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG FORMATION AS VISIBILITY
FIELDS DROP SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 06-09Z. THIS
CERTAINLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY RICH MOISTURE
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM OKLAHOMA ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT:
DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF IN THE 13-15Z TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE MORNING INSOLATION...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ON
PRETTY TOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE. EVENTUALLY...EVEN
THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE THE CEILING SCATTER OUT AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM INCREASING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LEAD UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK TIED TO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING INTO COLORADO BY LATE MORNING...THIS LEAD JET WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 700MB WILL EXIST ALONG
THIS LEAD JET STREAK.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE JET CORE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE DAKOTAS. FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS LEAD JET...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO PROMOTE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT OF A
CYCLONE. THE LATEST NAM12 MODEL SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW DOWN TO 994
OR 995MB BY LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS
BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THAT WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE FROM ALL THE STRATUS FROM EARLIER IN
THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM WILL ALLOW HOT, DRY AIR TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD TO ROUGHLY A JOHNSON-MONTEZUMA-SLAPOUT, OK
LINE BY 22Z. THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE TWO AIRMASS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WILL EXCEED 4000 J/KG WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE
PARCELS OF MID 80S OVER UPPER 60S DEWPOINT (DEGF).
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH
0-6KM AGL BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS OR SO. VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE
OF BASEBALLS OR PERHAPS LARGER UP TO SOFTBALLS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE 6 TO 9PM TIME FRAME ONCE SUPERCELLS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. NOW TO THE TORNADO THREAT -- THERE IS REASON FOR GREAT
CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-LIVED, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
3500-4500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-1KM AGL HELICITY RAMPING UP TO THE
300-400 J/KG RANGE AS WELL (THANKS TO THE DYNAMIC LOW LEVEL JET THAT
DEVELOPS JUST AFTER SUNSET). THIS IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY BOTH FROM KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED AND STRONG TORNADOES THAT
THRIVE DURING THE POST-SUNSET HOURS. THERE MAY ONLY BE ONE OR TWO
STORMS THAT THRIVE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BE
GREAT FROM JUST ONE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM. EVENTUALLY DURING THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE TORNADO THREAT...AND SUPERCELL
STORMS MAY DISSOLVE ALL TOGETHER BY 05 OR 06Z AS THE STORMS MOVE
TOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST, SWINGS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE
THIS MORNING, BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS AND STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WHILE ALSO INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN TWO EXPECTED EXTREMES OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, UPPER 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY VIA MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG EXPECTED BY
MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VIA 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C WITH THIS
EML EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF
THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF CONVECTION FAILS TO
GENERATE. OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
NOT ONLY ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT ALSO DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM AGL
WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ANY SUPERCELL LASTING
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP THERMAL MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF
10-15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AND OPTED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LEAVING ONLY WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY BUT SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
PORTIONS OF KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TURN QUIET AS THE REMNANT CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER SOME
WEAK HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. QUESTIONS
STILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHETHER
THE LEE TROUGH CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH UNDER THIS SETUP TO PULL THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO KANSAS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNKNOWN. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES EXISTING
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MVFR STRATUS HAS ALREADY
EXPANDED AS FAR NORTH AS KDDC AND NEAR KGCK THIS EVENING ON THE NOSE
OF VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING, THE CEILINGS WILL EXPAND
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH, AND EVENTUALLY LOWERING THE CEILINGS TO IFR
CATEGORY WITH THE SHRINKING MIXED LAYER. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 9-10 UTC AND LAST UNTIL STRONG MORNING
INSOLATION WARM THE SURFACE. INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE IN VICINITY OF A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SEVERE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LARGE LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE EXPECTED MODE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES BETWEEN 21 UTC SATURDAY AND 05 UTC
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 91 60 83 / 0 20 30 20
GCK 65 93 58 81 / 0 20 20 20
EHA 64 94 58 81 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 65 97 58 84 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 64 90 63 81 / 0 30 50 30
P28 68 91 65 87 / 0 30 50 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR
KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-084>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180013
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
713 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SALT LAKE CITY REGION AND INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS WERE MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION
WITH 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 METERS. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSED THE WESTERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FOUND ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 67 TO 71F RANGE WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE WAS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RED RIVER REGION WHICH WAS LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE OLD UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE REGION A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE CONTINUED TO CLIMB AT DODGE CITY TO
63 DEGREES AS OF 2030 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
TONIGHT:
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 70S
THIS EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 68 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE. ALL THE
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG FORMATION AS VISIBILITY
FIELDS DROP SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 06-09Z. THIS
CERTAINLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY RICH MOISTURE
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM OKLAHOMA ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT:
DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF IN THE 13-15Z TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE MORNING INSOLATION...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ON
PRETTY TOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE. EVENTUALLY...EVEN
THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE THE CEILING SCATTER OUT AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM INCREASING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LEAD UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK TIED TO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING INTO COLORADO BY LATE MORNING...THIS LEAD JET WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 700MB WILL EXIST ALONG
THIS LEAD JET STREAK.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE JET CORE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE DAKOTAS. FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS LEAD JET...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO PROMOTE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT OF A
CYCLONE. THE LATEST NAM12 MODEL SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW DOWN TO 994
OR 995MB BY LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS
BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THAT WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE FROM ALL THE STRATUS FROM EARLIER IN
THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM WILL ALLOW HOT, DRY AIR TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD TO ROUGHLY A JOHNSON-MONTEZUMA-SLAPOUT, OK
LINE BY 22Z. THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE TWO AIRMASS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WILL EXCEED 4000 J/KG WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE
PARCELS OF MID 80S OVER UPPER 60S DEWPOINT (DEGF).
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH
0-6KM AGL BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS OR SO. VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE
OF BASEBALLS OR PERHAPS LARGER UP TO SOFTBALLS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE 6 TO 9PM TIME FRAME ONCE SUPERCELLS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. NOW TO THE TORNADO THREAT -- THERE IS REASON FOR GREAT
CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-LIVED, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
3500-4500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-1KM AGL HELICITY RAMPING UP TO THE
300-400 J/KG RANGE AS WELL (THANKS TO THE DYNAMIC LOW LEVEL JET THAT
DEVELOPS JUST AFTER SUNSET). THIS IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY BOTH FROM KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED AND STRONG TORNADOES THAT
THRIVE DURING THE POST-SUNSET HOURS. THERE MAY ONLY BE ONE OR TWO
STORMS THAT THRIVE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BE
GREAT FROM JUST ONE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM. EVENTUALLY DURING THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE TORNADO THREAT...AND SUPERCELL
STORMS MAY DISSOLVE ALL TOGETHER BY 05 OR 06Z AS THE STORMS MOVE
TOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST, SWINGS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE
THIS MORNING, BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS AND STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WHILE ALSO INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN TWO EXPECTED EXTREMES OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, UPPER 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY VIA MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG EXPECTED BY
MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VIA 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C WITH THIS
EML EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF
THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF CONVECTION FAILS TO
GENERATE. OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
NOT ONLY ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT ALSO DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM AGL
WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ANY SUPERCELL LASTING
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP THERMAL MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF
10-15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AND OPTED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LEAVING ONLY WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY BUT SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
PORTIONS OF KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TURN QUIET AS THE REMNANT CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER SOME
WEAK HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. QUESTIONS
STILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHETHER
THE LEE TROUGH CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH UNDER THIS SETUP TO PULL THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO KANSAS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNKNOWN. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES EXISTING
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MVFR STRATUS HAS ALREADY
EXPANDED AS FAR NORTH AS KDDC AND NEAR KGCK THIS EVENING ON THE NOSE
OF VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING, THE CEILINGS WILL EXPAND
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH, AND EVENTUALLY LOWERING THE CEILINGS TO IFR
CATEGORY WITH THE SHRINKING MIXED LAYER. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 9-10 UTC AND LAST UNTIL STRONG MORNING
INSOLATION WARM THE SURFACE. INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE IN VICINITY OF A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SEVERE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LARGE LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE EXPECTED MODE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES BETWEEN 21 UTC SATURDAY AND 05 UTC
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 91 60 83 / 10 20 30 20
GCK 67 93 58 81 / 10 20 20 20
EHA 66 94 58 81 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 67 97 58 84 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 66 90 63 81 / 10 20 40 30
P28 70 91 65 87 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 9
AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-
084>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL
000
FXUS63 KDDC 172059
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SALT LAKE CITY REGION AND INTO THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS. 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS WERE MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION
WITH 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 METERS. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSED THE WESTERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FOUND ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 67 TO 71F RANGE WERE COMMON OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE WAS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RED RIVER REGION WHICH WAS LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE OLD UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE REGION A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE CONTINUED TO CLIMB AT DODGE CITY TO
63 DEGREES AS OF 2030 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
TONIGHT:
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 70S
THIS EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 68 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE. ALL THE
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG FORMATION AS VISIBILITY
FIELDS DROP SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 06-09Z. THIS
CERTAINLY MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY RICH MOISTURE
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM OKLAHOMA ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT:
DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF IN THE 13-15Z TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE MORNING INSOLATION...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ON
PRETTY TOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE. EVENTUALLY...EVEN
THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE THE CEILING SCATTER OUT AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM INCREASING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LEAD UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK TIED TO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING INTO COLORADO BY LATE MORNING...THIS LEAD JET WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 700MB WILL EXIST ALONG
THIS LEAD JET STREAK.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE JET CORE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE DAKOTAS. FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS LEAD JET...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO PROMOTE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT OF A
CYCLONE. THE LATEST NAM12 MODEL SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW DOWN TO 994
OR 995MB BY LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS
BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THAT WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BE FROM ALL THE STRATUS FROM EARLIER IN
THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM WILL ALLOW HOT, DRY AIR TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD TO ROUGHLY A JOHNSON-MONTEZUMA-SLAPOUT, OK
LINE BY 22Z. THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE TWO AIRMASS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WILL EXCEED 4000 J/KG WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE
PARCELS OF MID 80S OVER UPPER 60S DEWPOINT (DEGF).
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH
0-6KM AGL BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KNOTS OR SO. VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE
OF BASEBALLS OR PERHAPS LARGER UP TO SOFTBALLS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE 6 TO 9PM TIME FRAME ONCE SUPERCELLS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. NOW TO THE TORNADO THREAT -- THERE IS REASON FOR GREAT
CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-LIVED, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE
3500-4500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-1KM AGL HELICITY RAMPING UP TO THE
300-400 J/KG RANGE AS WELL (THANKS TO THE DYNAMIC LOW LEVEL JET THAT
DEVELOPS JUST AFTER SUNSET). THIS IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY BOTH FROM KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED AND STRONG TORNADOES THAT
THRIVE DURING THE POST-SUNSET HOURS. THERE MAY ONLY BE ONE OR TWO
STORMS THAT THRIVE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BE
GREAT FROM JUST ONE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM. EVENTUALLY DURING THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE TORNADO THREAT...AND SUPERCELL
STORMS MAY DISSOLVE ALL TOGETHER BY 05 OR 06Z AS THE STORMS MOVE
TOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST, SWINGS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE
THIS MORNING, BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS AND STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WHILE ALSO INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN TWO EXPECTED EXTREMES OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, UPPER 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY VIA MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG EXPECTED BY
MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VIA 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C WITH THIS
EML EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF
THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF CONVECTION FAILS TO
GENERATE. OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
NOT ONLY ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT ALSO DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM AGL
WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ANY SUPERCELL LASTING
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP THERMAL MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF
10-15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AND OPTED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LEAVING ONLY WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY BUT SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
PORTIONS OF KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TURN QUIET AS THE REMNANT CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER SOME
WEAK HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. QUESTIONS
STILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHETHER
THE LEE TROUGH CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH UNDER THIS SETUP TO PULL THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO KANSAS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNKNOWN. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES EXISTING
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY ONE-QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY IN THE TAF FOR DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL
ERODE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT LOW STRATUS MAY PERSIST IN THE
HYS AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 91 60 83 / 10 20 30 20
GCK 67 93 58 81 / 10 20 20 20
EHA 66 94 58 81 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 67 97 58 84 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 66 90 63 81 / 10 20 40 30
P28 70 91 65 87 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 9
AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-
084>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
000
FXUS63 KDDC 171807
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
107 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE IS POOLING AHEAD OF A DRYLINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA LIFTING FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AMPLE WITH NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING WELL ABOVE 2,000 TO 2,500 J/KG, A FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPPING WILL HINDER PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING
IN EASTERN COLORADO STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 SLIGHTLY HIGHER
H85 TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH AROUND 18C TO 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOWER TO MID 90S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST, SWINGS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A 100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE
THIS MORNING, BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS AND STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO
WHILE ALSO INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE
WILL SLIP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN TWO EXPECTED EXTREMES OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, UPPER 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY VIA MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG EXPECTED BY
MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VIA 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +12C TO +14C WITH THIS
EML EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ERODE ENOUGH OF
THE CAP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF CONVECTION FAILS TO
GENERATE. OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
NOT ONLY ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT ALSO DUE TO STRONGER 6-12 KM AGL
WINDS REMAINING BEHIND THE DRYLINE. NONETHELESS, SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ANY SUPERCELL LASTING
FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP THERMAL MIXING
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF
10-15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AND OPTED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LEAVING ONLY WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY BUT SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT LOOK DRY FOR
PORTIONS OF KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL TURN QUIET AS THE REMNANT CLOSED
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLOWLY WOBBLES AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LEAVING DEEPER MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER SOME
WEAK HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. QUESTIONS
STILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHETHER
THE LEE TROUGH CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH UNDER THIS SETUP TO PULL THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO KANSAS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNKNOWN. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES EXISTING
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY ONE-QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY IN THE TAF FOR DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. DENSE FOG WILL
ERODE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT LOW STRATUS MAY PERSIST IN THE
HYS AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 91 60 85 / 10 30 30 10
GCK 62 93 58 83 / 10 20 20 10
EHA 62 94 58 84 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 62 97 58 86 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 63 90 63 83 / 10 30 30 30
P28 65 91 65 88 / 10 30 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
|
