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000
FXUS63 KDDC 221352
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
852 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE FOR MESOSCALE TRENDS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 221141
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 220740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  50  50   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 220642
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  53  77  53 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  73  49  78  51 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  75  52  79  52 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  73  52 /  60  70   0   0
P28  77  56  79  55 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 220521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  77  53  84 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  49  77  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  49  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  79  52  84 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  70   0   0   0
P28  56  79  55  85 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 220521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  77  53  84 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  49  77  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  49  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  79  52  84 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  70   0   0   0
P28  56  79  55  85 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 212310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE
IMPROVING IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
800 TO 700MB LEVEL WITH SOME SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM BECOMING POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA IN THE 00Z TERMINAL.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  75  53  77 /   0  40  50   0
GCK  53  76  49  77 /   0  30  20   0
EHA  52  73  49  78 /   0  20  10   0
LBL  53  75  52  79 /   0  30  20   0
HYS  55  75  51  73 /   0  60  70   0
P28  56  77  56  79 /   0  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 212310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE
IMPROVING IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
800 TO 700MB LEVEL WITH SOME SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM BECOMING POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA IN THE 00Z TERMINAL.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  75  53  77 /   0  40  50   0
GCK  53  76  49  77 /   0  30  20   0
EHA  52  73  49  78 /   0  20  10   0
LBL  53  75  52  79 /   0  30  20   0
HYS  55  75  51  73 /   0  60  70   0
P28  56  77  56  79 /   0  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 212043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  75  53  77 /  10  40  50   0
GCK  53  76  49  77 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  52  73  49  78 /  10  20  10   0
LBL  53  75  52  79 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  55  75  51  73 /  10  60  70   0
P28  56  77  56  79 /  10  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 211922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  75  53  77 /  10  40  50   0
GCK  56  76  49  77 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  54  73  49  78 /  10  20  10   0
LBL  55  75  52  79 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  57  75  51  73 /  10  60  70   0
P28  57  77  56  79 /  10  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 211800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  53 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  49 /   0  10  30  20
EHA  77  54  73  49 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  76  57  75  51 /   0  10  60  70
P28  81  57  77  56 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 210844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  75  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  75  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  75  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  72  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  79  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 210844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  75  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  75  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  75  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  72  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  79  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 210644
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
144 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  56  76  55 /   0  10  50  50
GCK  75  56  76  51 /   0  10  40  40
EHA  76  54  73  51 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  76  55  76  53 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  72  57  76  54 /   0  10  60  70
P28  77  57  77  57 /   0  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 210518
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  76  55  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  56  76  51  76 /  10  40  40  10
EHA  54  73  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  55  76  53  76 /  10  30  30  10
HYS  57  76  54  74 /  10  60  70  10
P28  57  77  57  77 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 210518
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  76  55  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  56  76  51  76 /  10  40  40  10
EHA  54  73  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  55  76  53  76 /  10  30  30  10
HYS  57  76  54  74 /  10  60  70  10
P28  57  77  57  77 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 202340
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME
STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER KGCK AND KDDC BY AROUND
12Z AND LAST TILL AROUND 15-16Z. MODELS SUGGEST THE WORST
CONDITIONS IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH KGCK WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND KDDC WITH IFR/MVFR. AT KHYS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  45  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  51  75  54  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  50  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  44  71  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
P28  52  77  57  77 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 202340
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME
STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER KGCK AND KDDC BY AROUND
12Z AND LAST TILL AROUND 15-16Z. MODELS SUGGEST THE WORST
CONDITIONS IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH KGCK WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND KDDC WITH IFR/MVFR. AT KHYS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  45  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  51  75  54  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  50  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  44  71  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
P28  52  77  57  77 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 202048
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  45  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  51  75  54  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  50  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  44  71  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
P28  52  77  57  77 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 202048
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  45  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  51  75  54  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  50  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  44  71  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
P28  52  77  57  77 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 201922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  45  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  51  75  54  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  50  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  44  71  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
P28  52  77  57  77 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 201922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  45  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  51  75  54  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  50  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  44  71  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
P28  52  77  57  77 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 201738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  75  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  75  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  75  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 201738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  75  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  75  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  75  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID





000
FXUS63 KDDC 201119
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DDC TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BRINGING LIFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 200833
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 200833
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 200750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 200750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 200750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 200750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  74  49  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  51  77  52 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  78  51  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 200711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  49  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  74  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  73  46  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 200711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  49  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  74  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  73  46  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  52  77  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 200502
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 200502
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 192300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO
BORDER PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY 5 TO 10KT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 192300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO
BORDER PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY 5 TO 10KT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 192300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO
BORDER PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY 5 TO 10KT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 192300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO
BORDER PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY 5 TO 10KT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  52  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 191950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  50  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 191950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN SOME TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO LOW OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THESE
SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS
WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
OUT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  74  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  73  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  77  50  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 191811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  52  77  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 191811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT:

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL, WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT. ANY WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. HAVE LOW GHOST POPS FOR MEDICINE LODGE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TOMORROW:

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS - LOW 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  52  77  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 191700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE PLAINS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP FROM YESTERDAY`S LEVELS BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO. THERE WILL BE SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND
THIS MORNING, BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON OR SO, ALLOWING FOR
A NICE WARM UP. THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE THE WARMEST MAX TEMPERATURES, RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S. THE
HAYS AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN
THE MIDDLE 70S. WINDS TODAY WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 MPH, BUT INCREASE QUICKLY INTO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH BUY 14 TO 15Z, AS A SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST
FROM COLORADO.

AS FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BY
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH.  THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOWS JUST A SLIVER OF LIGHT RAIN GLANCING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES.  THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS OF THE RAP, NAM, AND NMM AND ARW
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP, AND THUS I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THUS, I AM EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN THE SCOTT
CITY AND SYRACUSE AREAS, AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY
TO LARNED, AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE COLDWATER, PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  52  76  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 191700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE PLAINS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP FROM YESTERDAY`S LEVELS BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO. THERE WILL BE SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND
THIS MORNING, BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON OR SO, ALLOWING FOR
A NICE WARM UP. THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE THE WARMEST MAX TEMPERATURES, RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S. THE
HAYS AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN
THE MIDDLE 70S. WINDS TODAY WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 MPH, BUT INCREASE QUICKLY INTO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH BUY 14 TO 15Z, AS A SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST
FROM COLORADO.

AS FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BY
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH.  THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOWS JUST A SLIVER OF LIGHT RAIN GLANCING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES.  THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS OF THE RAP, NAM, AND NMM AND ARW
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP, AND THUS I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THUS, I AM EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN THE SCOTT
CITY AND SYRACUSE AREAS, AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY
TO LARNED, AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE COLDWATER, PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  52  76  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN





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