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000
FXUS63 KDDC 191733
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Surface winds will remain fairly strong this afternoon through
about 00Z with the tight pressure gradient in place as a low
continues to form across southeastern Colorado. A frontal zone
extending northeast from the low will be the focus for late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, however these
showers and storms will likely remain north and west of GCK and
even HYS. We will keep precipitation out of the TAFs this evening,
however more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
likely affect the terminals on Sunday. VFR is expected tonight
through early Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  56  75  52 /  10  10  60  20
GCK  82  54  71  50 /  20  20  60  20
EHA  79  51  67  48 /  20  30  50  10
LBL  81  53  73  51 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  82  57  76  57 /  20  40  70  20
P28  81  58  78  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid








000
FXUS63 KDDC 191239
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR flight category is expected though at least early afternoon at
all sites, and probably through the TAF period. Eastern Colorado low
pressure will promote breezy southerly winds around 20 to 25 knots
sustained today with mixing allowing gusts into the upper  30s (kts).
It is plausible for a shower or thunderstorm to affect the GCK or
HYS terminal very late this afternoon or evening, but not high
enough a probability to include in the terminal grouping.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  56  75  52 /  10  10  60  20
GCK  82  54  71  50 /  20  20  60  20
EHA  79  51  67  48 /  20  30  50  10
LBL  81  53  73  51 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  82  57  76  57 /  20  40  70  20
P28  81  58  78  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 190848
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Southerly winds will continue around 15 to 20 knots through much
of the early morning hours at the TAF sites. Winds will ramp up
from the south southwest again during the day today with gusts of
around 30-35 knots possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop over west central into north central Kansas later in
the afternoon. There is some potential for these to impact Garden
City and Hays late this afternoon and evening but confidence on
timing and coverage is low enough to preclude adding them to the
TAFs at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  56  74  50 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  80  54  71  49 /  20  20  30  30
EHA  79  51  75  50 /  20  30  20  20
LBL  79  53  77  49 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  81  57  74  53 /  20  40  60  60
P28  81  58  77  55 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 190553
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The weekend:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across the northern zones Saturday night near a sfc front.
Severe weather is not expected due to meager CAPE and particularly
very weak bulk shear. A better chance at more widespread showers
and thunderstorms is expected Sunday as a weak upper level trough
moves across the region. Made spatio-temporal adjustments of pops
with a bias towards the ECMWF as this model seems to be less
problematic than the GFS (overdoing boundary layer moisture).
Again, overall instability and particularly shear are on the weak
side, so the main threat will be lightning.

Next week:

There may be isolated convection on the edge of the EML plume Tuesday
night for the northern zones, but confidence is very low as the GFS is
the only model showing this (versus EC/GEM). Will cap pops at 15 percent
and use isolated coverage since the overall convective signal is marginal
at best.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. The GFS is waffling back and forth,
whereas the EC seems to be a bit quasi-stable with synoptic/mesoscale
features. Have a concern for supercells in the eastern zones (generally
along and east of Highway 183). Warm 700-hPa temperatures will limit
overall coverage, but think that an isolated storm developing along
the dryline is not out of the question. CAPE from the EC is lower than
compared to yesterday (model is probably catching on to the front that
is currently across the Gulf basin and resultant impact in the future
with with moisture advection). Still, the model shows upper 50sF to
around 60F dewpoints advecting northward with 1500 J/kg of cape. Bulk
shear of 40-50 kt would support the notion of more organized convection.
Local research using the GFS (since EC lacks some parameters) suggests
a large hail threat (hen egg/tennis ball). Wouldn`t total rule out an
isolated tornado, however, LCL`s look fairly high given expected lower
dewpoints in the boundary layer. Anyhow, something to watch as we
get out of the global model spectrum and come into the mesoscale
model spectrum by that time. Red flag conditions look likely in
the wake of dryline with downslope winds and mixing. Some 90sF
look possible Wednesday in the western zones.

Beyond that, the forecast looks dry with warm/Spring-like
temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Southerly winds will continue around 15 to 20 knots through much
of the early morning hours at the TAF sites. Winds will ramp up
from the south southwest again during the day today with gusts of
around 30-35 knots possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop over west central into north central Kansas later in
the afternoon. There is some potential for these to impact Garden
City and Hays late this afternoon and evening but confidence on
timing and coverage is low enough to preclude adding them to the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  74  50  75 /  10  40  40   0
GCK  53  71  49  74 /  20  30  30  10
EHA  50  75  50  76 /  40  20  20  10
LBL  52  77  49  78 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  56  74  53  73 /  60  60  60   0
P28  57  77  55  76 /  50  60  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 182314
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The weekend:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
the northern zones Saturday night near a sfc front. Severe weather is
not expected due to meager CAPE and particularly very weak bulk shear.
A better chance at more widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected
Sunday as a weak upper level trough moves across the region. Made spatiotemporal
adjustments of pops with a bias towards the ECMWF as this model seems
to be less problematic than the GFS (overdoing boundary layer moisture).
Again, overall instability and particularly shear are on the weak side,
so the main threat will be lightning.

Next week:

There may be isolated convection on the edge of the EML plume Tuesday
night for the northern zones, but confidence is very low as the GFS is
the only model showing this (versus EC/GEM). Will cap pops at 15 percent
and use isolated coverage since the overall convective signal is marginal
at best.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. The GFS is waffling back and forth,
whereas the EC seems to be a bit quasi-stable with synoptic/mesoscale
features. Have a concern for supercells in the eastern zones (generally
along and east of Highway 183). Warm 700-hPa temperatures will limit
overall coverage, but think that an isolated storm developing along
the dryline is not out of the question. CAPE from the EC is lower than
compared to yesterday (model is probably catching on to the front that
is currently across the Gulf basin and resultant impact in the future
with with moisture advection). Still, the model shows upper 50sF to
around 60F dewpoints advecting northward with 1500 J/kg of cape. Bulk
shear of 40-50 kt would support the notion of more organized convection.
Local research using the GFS (since EC lacks some parameters) suggests
a large hail threat (hen egg/tennis ball). Wouldn`t total rule out an
isolated tornado, however, LCL`s look fairly high given expected lower
dewpoints in the boundary layer. Anywho, something to watch as we get
out of the global model spectrum and come into the mesoscale model
spectrum by that time. Red flag conditions look likely in the wake
of dryline with downslope winds and mixing. Some 90sF look possible
Wednesday in the western zones.

Beyond that, the forecast looks dry with warm/Spring-like
temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The strong surface pressure gradient will relax a bit as evening
approaches, but not by much. Expect southeast winds of 15g24 knots
overnight, along with slowly increasing cirrus clouds moving in
from the the northwest to the southeast. Flight conditions will
remain VFR, but surface winds will remain gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  51  79  53  71 /   0  20  20  30
EHA  52  79  50  75 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  51  79  52  77 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  49  80  56  74 /   0  20  60  60
P28  50  79  57  77 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 182102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The weekend:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
the northern zones Saturday night near a sfc front. Severe weather is
not expected due to meager CAPE and particularly very weak bulk shear.
A better chance at more widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected
Sunday as a weak upper level trough moves across the region. Made spatiotemporal
adjustments of pops with a bias towards the ECMWF as this model seems
to be less problematic than the GFS (overdoing boundary layer moisture).
Again, overall instability and particularly shear are on the weak side,
so the main threat will be lightning.

Next week:

There may be isolated convection on the edge of the EML plume Tuesday
night for the northern zones, but confidence is very low as the GFS is
the only model showing this (versus EC/GEM). Will cap pops at 15 percent
and use isolated coverage since the overall convective signal is marginal
at best.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. The GFS is waffling back and forth,
whereas the EC seems to be a bit quasi-stable with synoptic/mesoscale
features. Have a concern for supercells in the eastern zones (generally
along and east of Highway 183). Warm 700-hPa temperatures will limit
overall coverage, but think that an isolated storm developing along
the dryline is not out of the question. CAPE from the EC is lower than
compared to yesterday (model is probably catching on to the front that
is currently across the Gulf basin and resultant impact in the future
with with moisture advection). Still, the model shows upper 50sF to
around 60F dewpoints advecting northward with 1500 J/kg of cape. Bulk
shear of 40-50 kt would support the notion of more organized convection.
Local research using the GFS (since EC lacks some parameters) suggests
a large hail threat (hen egg/tennis ball). Wouldn`t total rule out an
isolated tornado, however, LCL`s look fairly high given expected lower
dewpoints in the boundary layer. Anywho, something to watch as we get
out of the global model spectrum and come into the mesoscale model
spectrum by that time. Red flag conditions look likely in the wake
of dryline with downslope winds and mixing. Some 90sF look possible
Wednesday in the western zones.

Beyond that, the forecast looks dry with warm/Spring-like
temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  51  79  53  71 /   0  20  20  30
EHA  52  79  50  75 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  51  79  52  77 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  49  80  56  74 /   0  20  60  60
P28  50  79  57  77 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181937 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  51  79  53  71 /   0  20  20  30
EHA  52  79  50  75 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  51  79  52  77 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  49  80  56  74 /   0  20  60  60
P28  50  79  57  77 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181740 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  50  79  55 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  74  51  79  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  76  52  79  50 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  76  51  79  52 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  73  49  80  55 /   0   0  20  50
P28  72  50  79  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181138
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
638 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible at Dodge City through
14z as low clouds continue to move up from western Oklahoma. VFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period. Look
for southerly winds to increase to 20 to 30 knots as a surface low
pressure trough develops in the lee of the Rockies today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  74  51  78  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  76  52  77  50 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  76  49  78  52 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  73  50  80  55 /   0   0  20  50
P28  72  47  80  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 180913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface upslope and radiational cooling have lead to expansion
of stratus northward across the panhandles into the GCK and DDC
terminal vicinity. This stratus should remain at or above the MVFR
category based on current METAR observations and local GFSMOS
guidance. Southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty as
diurnal mixing develops Friday morning after 15 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  74  51  78  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  76  52  77  50 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  76  49  78  52 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  73  50  80  55 /   0   0  20  50
P28  72  47  80  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 180834
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...updated short term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The weekend:

A broad, weak upper level trough will move across the region over the
weekend. This feature and low level isentropic lift will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through the weekend.
Spatial coverage of thunderstorms is fairly uncertain, and have broad-
brushed pops. The highest pops will remain across the northern zones,
it association with closer proximity to a sfc front. Severe weather
is not expected due to very weak bulk shear and related very weak flow
at the mid and upper levels. Environment looks like pulse thunderstorms.

Next week:

The main item of interest is next Wednesday. A negatively tilted trough
will approach the region towards midweek. Ahead of this feature, low
level warm/moisture advection is expected. The 12Z ECMWF indicates dewpoints
around 60F advecting northward across central Kansas. Severe weather
could be a possibility with 45-50 kt of bulk shear, a passing jet streak,
and SBCAPE in the 2000 J/kg range, possibly higher. Capping could be
an issue with fairly warm 700-hPa temps. Mesoscale dryline placement is
largely in question and will depend on how much southwesterly momentum
there is in the low to mid levels. Just taking the EC model at face
value, the ingredients are there for supercells, although, there is
large uncertainty in where storms will form and where the dryline will
be. Per the GFS solution, there also could be interesting weather along
and northeast of the triple point in northern Kansas/Nebraska. Anyway,
just something to watch as we get closer to the event. Behind the dryline,
very warm downslope winds and mixing will create a high probability
environment of red flag conditions. Beyond Wednesday, Spring-like/warm
conditions look to continue along with a dry forecast. Doesn`t look
like we will see any frost/freeze temperatures within this period...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface upslope and radiational cooling have lead to expansion
of stratus northward across the panhandles into the GCK and DDC
terminal vicinity. This stratus should remain at or above the MVFR
category based on current METAR observations and local GFSMOS
guidance. Southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty as
diurnal mixing develops Friday morning after 15 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Minimum relative humidities will fall to between 20 and 30 percent
this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 70s with dew points in
the 30s. The surface pressure gradient will result in south surface
winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. The combination will lead to
elevated fire danger conditions, while remaining well below red flag
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  52  79  55 /   0   0  30  50
GCK  74  52  79  53 /   0   0  40  40
EHA  76  53  77  51 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  76  52  79  52 /   0   0  30  40
HYS  73  52  81  55 /   0   0  50  60
P28  72  53  81  56 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 180614
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
114 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A sharply defined upper level shortwave trough will be moving east
of the Central Plains tonight with some clearing. At the surface a
cool ridge of high pressure will also move east with light and
variable winds becoming light southeasterly. Some stratus clouds
could move into parts of southwest Kansas toward morning as moisture
is pulled northward from Oklahoma. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 30s.

For Friday, upper level ridging will push into the Central Plains
with mostly sunny skies. As a lee trough deepens, the surface
pressure gradient strengthens across much of western Kansas. South
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty. Highs on Friday, as
850 mb temps warm into the teens Celsius with good mixing, will
range from the upper 70s to around 80 far west near the Colorado
border to the low to mid 70s over the rest of southwest and south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The weekend:

A broad, weak upper level trough will move across the region over the
weekend. This feature and low level isentropic lift will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through the weekend.
Spatial coverage of thunderstorms is fairly uncertain, and have broad-
brushed pops. The highest pops will remain across the northern zones,
it association with closer proximity to a sfc front. Severe weather
is not expected due to very weak bulk shear and related very weak flow
at the mid and upper levels. Environment looks like pulse thunderstorms.

Next week:

The main item of interest is next Wednesday. A negatively tilted trough
will approach the region towards midweek. Ahead of this feature, low
level warm/moisture advection is expected. The 12Z ECMWF indicates dewpoints
around 60F advecting northward across central Kansas. Severe weather
could be a possibility with 45-50 kt of bulk shear, a passing jet streak,
and SBCAPE in the 2000 J/kg range, possibly higher. Capping could be
an issue with fairly warm 700-hPa temps. Mesoscale dryline placement is
largely in question and will depend on how much southwesterly momentum
there is in the low to mid levels. Just taking the EC model at face
value, the ingredients are there for supercells, although, there is
large uncertainty in where storms will form and where the dryline will
be. Per the GFS solution, there also could be interesting weather along
and northeast of the triple point in northern Kansas/Nebraska. Anyway,
just something to watch as we get closer to the event. Behind the dryline,
very warm downslope winds and mixing will create a high probability
environment of red flag conditions. Beyond Wednesday, Spring-like/warm
conditions look to continue along with a dry forecast. Doesn`t look
like we will see any frost/freeze temperatures within this period...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface upslope and radiational cooling have lead to expansion
of stratus northward across the panhandles into the GCK and DDC
terminal vicinity. This stratus should remain at or above the MVFR
category based on current METAR observations and local GFSMOS
guidance. Southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty as
diurnal mixing develops Friday morning after 15 UTC.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  52  79  55 /   0   0  30  50
GCK  75  52  79  53 /   0   0  40  40
EHA  76  53  77  51 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  77  52  79  52 /   0   0  30  40
HYS  74  52  81  55 /   0   0  50  60
P28  72  53  81  56 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 180000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
700 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A sharply defined upper level shortwave trough will be moving east
of the Central Plains tonight with some clearing. At the surface a
cool ridge of high pressure will also move east with light and
variable winds becoming light southeasterly. Some stratus clouds
could move into parts of southwest Kansas toward morning as moisture
is pulled northward from Oklahoma. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 30s.

For Friday, upper level ridging will push into the Central Plains
with mostly sunny skies. As a lee trough deepens, the surface
pressure gradient strengthens across much of western Kansas. South
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty. Highs on Friday, as
850 mb temps warm into the teens Celsius with good mixing, will
range from the upper 70s to around 80 far west near the Colorado
border to the low to mid 70s over the rest of southwest and south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The weekend:

A broad, weak upper level trough will move across the region over the
weekend. This feature and low level isentropic lift will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through the weekend.
Spatial coverage of thunderstorms is fairly uncertain, and have broad-
brushed pops. The highest pops will remain across the northern zones,
it association with closer proximity to a sfc front. Severe weather
is not expected due to very weak bulk shear and related very weak flow
at the mid and upper levels. Environment looks like pulse thunderstorms.

Next week:

The main item of interest is next Wednesday. A negatively tilted trough
will approach the region towards midweek. Ahead of this feature, low
level warm/moisture advection is expected. The 12Z ECMWF indicates dewpoints
around 60F advecting northward across central Kansas. Severe weather
could be a possibility with 45-50 kt of bulk shear, a passing jet streak,
and SBCAPE in the 2000 J/kg range, possibly higher. Capping could be
an issue with fairly warm 700-hPa temps. Mesoscale dryline placement is
largely in question and will depend on how much southwesterly momentum
there is in the low to mid levels. Just taking the EC model at face
value, the ingredients are there for supercells, although, there is
large uncertainty in where storms will form and where the dryline will
be. Per the GFS solution, there also could be interesting weather along
and northeast of the triple point in northern Kansas/Nebraska. Anyway,
just something to watch as we get closer to the event. Behind the dryline,
very warm downslope winds and mixing will create a high probability
environment of red flag conditions. Beyond Wednesday, Spring-like/warm
conditions look to continue along with a dry forecast. Doesn`t look
like we will see any frost/freeze temperatures within this period...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies, resulting
in increasing south winds through the TAF period. Some MVFR CIGS may
develop tonight as moist air returns northward above the surfce with the
increasing southerly flow. But any stratus should quickly
dissipate with daytime heating by 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  73  52  79 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  38  75  52  79 /   0   0   0  40
EHA  38  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  38  77  52  79 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  35  74  52  81 /   0   0   0  50
P28  36  72  53  81 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Finch








000
FXUS63 KDDC 172052
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A sharply defined upper level shortwave trough will be moving east
of the Central Plains tonight with some clearing. At the surface a
cool ridge of high pressure will also move east with light and
variable winds becoming light southeasterly. Some stratus clouds
could move into parts of southwest Kansas toward morning as moisture
is pulled northward from Oklahoma. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 30s.

For Friday, upper level ridging will push into the Central Plains
with mostly sunny skies. As a lee trough deepens, the surface
pressure gradient strengthens across much of western Kansas. South
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty. Highs on Friday, as
850 mb temps warm into the teens Celsius with good mixing, will
range from the upper 70s to around 80 far west near the Colorado
border to the low to mid 70s over the rest of southwest and south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The weekend:

A broad, weak upper level trough will move across the region over the
weekend. This feature and low level isentropic lift will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through the weekend.
Spatial coverage of thunderstorms is fairly uncertain, and have broad-
brushed pops. The highest pops will remain across the northern zones,
it association with closer proximity to a sfc front. Severe weather
is not expected due to very weak bulk shear and related very weak flow
at the mid and upper levels. Environment looks like pulse thunderstorms.

Next week:

The main item of interest is next Wednesday. A negatively tilted trough
will approach the region towards midweek. Ahead of this feature, low
level warm/moisture advection is expected. The 12Z ECMWF indicates dewpoints
around 60F advecting northward across central Kansas. Severe weather
could be a possibility with 45-50 kt of bulk shear, a passing jet streak,
and SBCAPE in the 2000 J/kg range, possibly higher. Capping could be
an issue with fairly warm 700-hPa temps. Mesoscale dryline placement is
largely in question and will depend on how much southwesterly momentum
there is in the low to mid levels. Just taking the EC model at face
value, the ingredients are there for supercells, although, there is
large uncertainty in where storms will form and where the dryline will
be. Per the GFS solution, there also could be interesting weather along
and northeast of the triple point in northern Kansas/Nebraska. Anyway,
just something to watch as we get closer to the event. Behind the dryline,
very warm downslope winds and mixing will create a high probability
environment of red flag conditions. Beyond Wednesday, Spring-like/warm
conditions look to continue along with a dry forecast. Doesn`t look
like we will see any frost/freeze temperatures within this period...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Rapid clearing and return to VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening as an upper level shortwave
trough moves east. Light and variable winds will become light
southeast this afternoon, then become southerly after midnight.
Some stratus may form towards 10-12Z with some IFR/MFVR cigs into
15Z mainly west of the Dodge City terminal. Winds increase with
good mixing to the south after 16Z at 20-30kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  73  52  79 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  38  75  52  79 /   0   0   0  40
EHA  38  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  38  77  52  79 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  35  74  52  81 /   0   0   0  50
P28  36  72  53  81 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 171859 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
159 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A sharply defined upper level shortwave trough will be moving east
of the Central Plains tonight with some clearing. At the surface a
cool ridge of high pressure will also move east with light and
variable winds becoming light southeasterly. Some stratus clouds
could move into parts of southwest Kansas toward morning as moisture
is pulled northward from Oklahoma. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 30s.

For Friday, upper level ridging will push into the Central Plains
with mostly sunny skies. As a lee trough deepens, the surface
pressure gradient strengthens across much of western Kansas. South
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty. Highs on Friday, as
850 mb temps warm into the teens Celsius with good mixing, will
range from the upper 70s to around 80 far west near the Colorado
border to the low to mid 70s over the rest of southwest and south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A fairly active split upper level flow pattern will persist
through the extended period as indicated by the 00z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF and GEM models. At the beginning of the period on
Friday, a shortwave ridge will be moving over the central Plains.
Two separate but phased upper level shortwave troughs will be
moving into the western states. As the weekend progresses, the
northern stream wave will move from the Pacific Northwest into
southern Canada while the southern stream wave approaches the
central and southern Plains. The models suggest that this southern
stream wave may come out in two pieces with the first one moving
out over southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon and evening while the
main wave moves out on Sunday. In the lower levels, them models
show increasing southerly flow into the central Plains while a
frontal boundary pushes south into northwestern Kansas. Model
soundings show some moderate instability developing with some low
level convergence increasing along the front. Will continue the
chance pops currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. It
appears that the best chances for precipitation will be from west
central into central and south central Kansas Saturday night and
Sunday. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in
south central Kansas Sunday evening but precipitation chances
should be winding down fairly quickly as the mid level wave moves
east.

Dry and mild weather can be expected through the first half of next
week as upper level ridging dominates the central Plains. By
midweek, the models show another strong wave moving out of the
west. There are some timing differences with this next system.  The
ECMWF and GEM show a fairly robust and slightly negatively tilted
wave moving out by Wednesday with a dryline setting up somewhere
over southwest into south central Kansas. The GFS shows the wave
moving out on Thursday. A lot of uncertainty this far out, but there
is some potential for severe thunderstorms with surface dewpoints
into the 50s and stronger flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Rapid clearing and return to VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening as an upper level shortwave
trough moves east. Light and variable winds will become light
southeast this afternoon, then become southerly after midnight.
Some stratus may form towards 10-12Z with some IFR/MFVR cigs into
15Z mainly west of the Dodge City terminal. Winds increase with
good mixing to the south after 16Z at 20-30kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  73  52  75 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  38  75  52  75 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  38  76  53  75 /   0   0  10  30
LBL  38  77  52  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  35  74  52  75 /   0   0  10  40
P28  36  72  53  74 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 171726 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1226 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE 850MB TO 600MB LEVEL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS I295K AND I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING
AHEAD AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF 700MB TO 500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH THE LATEST RAP, NAM AND EVEN GFS HAD LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO PRATT AT 12Z THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
BASED ON THIS CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE 00Z THURSDAY
NAM AND GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL LATE DAY.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
BASED ON THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK MAINLY INTO THE MID 30S. DID HOWEVER FAVOR LOWS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL TRIM A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A fairly active split upper level flow pattern will persist
through the extended period as indicated by the 00z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF and GEM models. At the beginning of the period on
Friday, a shortwave ridge will be moving over the central Plains.
Two separate but phased upper level shortwave troughs will be
moving into the western states. As the weekend progresses, the
northern stream wave will move from the Pacific Northwest into
southern Canada while the southern stream wave approaches the
central and southern Plains. The models suggest that this southern
stream wave may come out in two pieces with the first one moving
out over southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon and evening while the
main wave moves out on Sunday. In the lower levels, them models
show increasing southerly flow into the central Plains while a
frontal boundary pushes south into northwestern Kansas. Model
soundings show some moderate instability developing with some low
level convergence increasing along the front. Will continue the
chance pops currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. It
appears that the best chances for precipitation will be from west
central into central and south central Kansas Saturday night and
Sunday. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in
south central Kansas Sunday evening but precipitation chances
should be winding down fairly quickly as the mid level wave moves
east.

Dry and mild weather can be expected through the first half of next
week as upper level ridging dominates the central Plains. By
midweek, the models show another strong wave moving out of the
west. There are some timing differences with this next system.  The
ECMWF and GEM show a fairly robust and slightly negatively tilted
wave moving out by Wednesday with a dryline setting up somewhere
over southwest into south central Kansas. The GFS shows the wave
moving out on Thursday. A lot of uncertainty this far out, but there
is some potential for severe thunderstorms with surface dewpoints
into the 50s and stronger flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Rapid clearing and return to VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening as an upper level shortwave
trough moves east. Light and variable winds will become light
southeast this afternoon, then become southerly after midnight.
Some stratus may form towards 10-12Z with some IFR/MFVR cigs into
15Z mainly west of the Dodge City terminal. Winds increase with
good mixing to the south after 16Z at 20-30kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  37  73  52 / 100   0   0  10
GCK  56  38  75  52 /  90   0   0  10
EHA  55  38  76  53 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  55  38  77  52 /  90   0   0  10
HYS  56  35  74  52 /  10   0   0  10
P28  50  36  72  53 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 171153
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
653 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE 850MB TO 600MB LEVEL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS I295K AND I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING
AHEAD AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF 700MB TO 500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH THE LATEST RAP, NAM AND EVEN GFS HAD LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO PRATT AT 12Z THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
BASED ON THIS CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE 00Z THURSDAY
NAM AND GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL LATE DAY.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
BASED ON THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK MAINLY INTO THE MID 30S. DID HOWEVER FAVOR LOWS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL TRIM A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A fairly active split upper level flow pattern will persist
through the extended period as indicated by the 00z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF and GEM models. At the beginning of the period on
Friday, a shortwave ridge will be moving over the central Plains.
Two separate but phased upper level shortwave troughs will be
moving into the western states. As the weekend progresses, the
northern stream wave will move from the Pacific Northwest into
southern Canada while the southern stream wave approaches the
central and southern Plains. The models suggest that this southern
stream wave may come out in two pieces with the first one moving
out over southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon and evening while the
main wave moves out on Sunday. In the lower levels, them models
show increasing southerly flow into the central Plains while a
frontal boundary pushes south into northwestern Kansas. Model
soundings show some moderate instability developing with some low
level convergence increasing along the front. Will continue the
chance pops currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. It
appears that the best chances for precipitation will be from west
central into central and south central Kansas Saturday night and
Sunday. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in
south central Kansas Sunday evening but precipitation chances
should be winding down fairly quickly as the mid level wave moves
east.

Dry and mild weather can be expected through the first half of next
week as upper level ridging dominates the central Plains. By
midweek, the models show another strong wave moving out of the
west. There are some timing differences with this next system.  The
ECMWF and GEM show a fairly robust and slightly negatively tilted
wave moving out by Wednesday with a dryline setting up somewhere
over southwest into south central Kansas. The GFS shows the wave
moving out on Thursday. A lot of uncertainty this far out, but there
is some potential for severe thunderstorms with surface dewpoints
into the 50s and stronger flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Areas of light rain around Garden City and Dodge City will persist
for a few hours this morning but should be ending by late morning
to midday. Visibilities should remain VFR but could drop into the
MVFR category for a few hours this morning. Mid and high level
cloudiness will be scattering out from northwest to southeast this
afternoon after the rain ends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  36  72  52 /  50   0   0  10
GCK  56  38  75  52 /  40   0   0  10
EHA  55  38  76  53 /  40   0   0  10
LBL  55  38  77  52 /  60   0   0  10
HYS  56  36  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
P28  52  36  71  53 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 170910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE 850MB TO 600MB LEVEL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS I295K AND I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING
AHEAD AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF 700MB TO 500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH THE LATEST RAP, NAM AND EVEN GFS HAD LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO PRATT AT 12Z THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
BASED ON THIS CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE 00Z THURSDAY
NAM AND GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL LATE DAY.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
BASED ON THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK MAINLY INTO THE MID 30S. DID HOWEVER FAVOR LOWS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL TRIM A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A fairly active split upper level flow pattern will persist
through the extended period as indicated by the 00z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF and GEM models. At the beginning of the period on
Friday, a shortwave ridge will be moving over the central Plains.
Two separate but phased upper level shortwave troughs will be
moving into the western states. As the weekend progresses, the
northern stream wave will move from the Pacific Northwest into
southern Canada while the southern stream wave approaches the
central and southern Plains. The models suggest that this southern
stream wave may come out in two pieces with the first one moving
out over southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon and evening while the
main wave moves out on Sunday. In the lower levels, them models
show increasing southerly flow into the central Plains while a
frontal boundary pushes south into northwestern Kansas. Model
soundings show some moderate instability developing with some low
level convergence increasing along the front. Will continue the
chance pops currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. It
appears that the best chances for precipitation will be from west
central into central and south central Kansas Saturday night and
Sunday. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in
south central Kansas Sunday evening but precipitation chances
should be winding down fairly quickly as the mid level wave moves
east.

Dry and mild weather can be expected through the first half of next
week as upper level ridging dominates the central Plains. By
midweek, the models show another strong wave moving out of the
west. There are some timing differences with this next system.  The
ECMWF and GEM show a fairly robust and slightly negatively tilted
wave moving out by Wednesday with a dryline setting up somewhere
over southwest into south central Kansas. The GFS shows the wave
moving out on Thursday. A lot of uncertainty this far out, but there
is some potential for severe thunderstorms with surface dewpoints
into the 50s and stronger flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AT AND ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL AS MID LEVEL LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z AT DDC AND
GCK. ALONG WITH THIS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE/DECREASE TO AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  36  72  52 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  56  38  75  52 /  30   0   0  10
EHA  55  38  76  53 /  70   0   0  10
LBL  55  38  77  52 /  70   0   0  10
HYS  56  36  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
P28  52  36  71  53 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...BURGERT








000
FXUS63 KDDC 170701 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
157 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE 850MB TO 600MB LEVEL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS I295K AND I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING
AHEAD AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF 700MB TO 500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH THE LATEST RAP, NAM AND EVEN GFS HAD LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO PRATT AT 12Z THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
BASED ON THIS CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE 00Z THURSDAY
NAM AND GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL LATE DAY.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
BASED ON THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK MAINLY INTO THE MID 30S. DID HOWEVER FAVOR LOWS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL TRIM A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE WITH 2 STORM SYSTEMS
COMING INTO THE PLAINS, THE FIRST ONE THIS EASTER WEEKEND, THEN A
MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EASTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
FORECAST ON SATURDAY, AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN, WILL KEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY LOW, SO THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES OF 30 TO
40 PERCENT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THEN NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW ECMWF MODEL
SHOWS THE SYSTEM A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT SPLIT BETWEEN THE CURRENT SLOWER OPERATIONAL MEMBER
AND THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING
OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT, THEN MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE, AND THE STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. IF STORMS DEVELOP THE CHANCES OF SEVERE ARE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY BETTER WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE. IF THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT THEN THE DRYLINE COULD PUSH OUT OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WARMING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AT AND ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL AS MID LEVEL LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z AT DDC AND
GCK. ALONG WITH THIS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE/DECREASE TO AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  36  72  52 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  56  38  75  52 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  55  38  76  53 /  70   0   0  10
LBL  55  38  77  52 /  70   0   0  10
HYS  56  36  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
P28  52  36  71  53 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT










000
FXUS63 KDDC 170653
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Moisture will increase in the 850mb to 600mb level during the
early morning hours as I295K and I300K isentropic lift improves
across southwest and south central Kansas. This will be occurring
ahead an approaching upper level trough which was located across
eastern Colorado earlier this morning. At this time it currently
appears the area more favorable for measurable precipitation this
morning will be south of the 700mb baroclinic zone which the
latest RAP, NAM and even GFS had located from roughly Garden City
to Pratt at 12z Thursday. As an upper level trough crosses western
Kansas during the mid to late morning the precipitation in this
area will taper off from west to east. Clearing skies will then
develop during the afternoon hours, and based on this clearing
trend expected along with the 00z Thursday NAM and GFS models
soundings the previous forecast still looks on track with highs
warming into the low to mid 50s. The cooler temperatures will be
across south central Kansas where the clouds will not exit until
late day.

An area of high pressure at the surface will cross central Kansas
during the afternoon which will allow the northeast winds veer to
the southeast. Overnight as this surface high moves into eastern
Oklahoma and Missouri the winds will become more south/southwest.
Based on these winds along with the return some low level
moisture will stay close to the latest guidance with temperatures
falling back mainly into the mid 30s. Did however favor lows
slightly warmer than guidance across far western Kansas given the
moisture return expected and possible cloud cover. In south
central Kansas based on wind speeds less than 10 mph will trim a
few degrees off the latest guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The next chances for measurable rainfall are with 2 storm systems
coming into the Plains, the first one this Easter Weekend, then a
much stronger storm system by Wednesday of next week.

The Easter system will move northeastward from the Desert Southwest
as a subtropical upper level shortwave trough and into the Central
and Southern Plains on Saturday. Lots of high level cloudiness is
forecast on Saturday, and limited moisture return, will keep layer
instability low, so the probability of severe thunderstorms looks
minimal at this time. Will keep the thunderstorms chances of 30 to
40 percent from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. By sunrise
Sunday morning much of the rainfall will be moving east into south
central Kansas.

Then next storm system will move out into the Plains by next
Wednesday as a strong upper level low and attendant shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. The new ECMWF model
shows the system a bit faster than the GFS. Ensemble members of the
GFS are about split between the current slower operational member
and the faster solutions. So lots of uncertainty exists in the timing
of this next storm system into western Kansas. If the slower
solutions are correct, then more moisture will be pulled northward
ahead of the system, and ahead of a dryline, and the storm chances
will increase. If storms develop the chances of severe are looking
increasingly better with good shear in place. If the faster
solutions are correct then the dryline could push out of southwest
and south central Kansas and into central Kansas with minimal
chances for storms across western Kansas.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s through the period with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning warming into
the 40s and 50s into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BUFR soundings indicating moisture will increase at and above the
850mb level as mid level lift improves ahead of an upper level
trough approaches western Kansas overnight. Cloud bases will
thicken and lower early this morning but VFR conditions are
anticipated tonight and Thursday based on the latest BUFR
soundings and HRRR. With the increase in moisture and lift there
will be a chance for rain...mainly between 09z and 18z at DDC and
GCK. Along with this chance of precipitation the ceilings may
briefly fall into the MVFR criteria early this morning. Northeast
winds will be/decrease to around 10kts overnight and then
gradually veer to the southeast early Thursday as a surface ridge
axis begins to build into central Kansas from the north.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  36  72  52 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  56  38  75  52 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  55  38  76  53 /  70   0   0  10
LBL  55  38  77  52 /  70   0   0  10
HYS  56  36  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
P28  52  36  71  53 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 170418
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1118 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

At 00z Thursday a +90kt 300mb jet extended from British Columbia
to northeastern Utah. A 500mb thermal trough near the 300mb left
exit region of the upper jet was located across the Central High
Plains. An upper level ridge axis was located along the west coast
of the United States. Another upper level jet extended across the
Kansas/Nebraska border and a 700mb low was located over southern
Minnesota. A 700mb moisture axis extending southwest of this low
across Nebraska into western Kansas. Just south of this moisture
axis a 700mb temperature gradient extended from extreme northeast
New Mexico to northern Oklahoma. A surface and 850mb cold front
extended from western Iowa, across central Kansas into the
panhandle of Texas/eastern Nebraska at 00z Thursday. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Thursday range from +18c at Amarillo to +11c
at Dodge City to +1c at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Tonight:

An upper level shortwave trough will move across the region through
the overnight. At the base of the trough, enhanced 300 Kelvin isentropic
lift and 900-700-hPa frontogenesis will lead to some precipitation beginning
tonight and continuing into tomorrow morning. Mesoscale models such
as the 4 km NAM and WRF-NMM/ARW, as well as the operational NAM have
trended with more of a southern track for this precip. As a result,
have adjusted pops with the highest probabilities across the southern
2 rows of counties. Locations along the Oklahoma border stand to see
most of the precip. The thermodynamic profile supports liquid precipitation.
The top down method suggests the slight (and I mean very low) probability
of mixed precipitation across far western Kansas at the tail end of
the event. Confidence though is extremely low on this evolving like
this and most areas should just see rain. Instability/mucape is not
forecast to be significant or even present, so thunderstorms are not
expected. Precipitation amounts look to be several hundredths along
Highway 50, to a few tenths near the Oklahoma border. South-central
Kansas could see the highest amounts with 3 or so tenths not out of
the question. The northern zones will see nothing. Non-freezing minimums
expected through the overnight into the morning hours.

Tomorrow:

Lingering precip and clouds will lead to lower maximums across south-
central Kansas. Some models don`t break out of the 40sF for P28, but
feel this might be a bit overdone. Elsewhere, 50sF are expected. Other
than some precip across the southeastern zones through 18Z, tomorrow
should be mainly dry with clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and upslope
low level winds by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The next chances for measurable rainfall are with 2 storm systems
coming into the Plains, the first one this Easter Weekend, then a
much stronger storm system by Wednesday of next week.

The Easter system will move northeastward from the Desert Southwest
as a subtropical upper level shortwave trough and into the Central
and Southern Plains on Saturday. Lots of high level cloudiness is
forecast on Saturday, and limited moisture return, will keep layer
instability low, so the probability of severe thunderstorms looks
minimal at this time. Will keep the thunderstorms chances of 30 to
40 percent from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. By sunrise
Sunday morning much of the rainfall will be moving east into south
central Kansas.

Then next storm system will move out into the Plains by next
Wednesday as a strong upper level low and attendant shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. The new ECMWF model
shows the system a bit faster than the GFS. Ensemble members of the
GFS are about split between the current slower operational member
and the faster solutions. So lots of uncertainty exists in the timing
of this next storm system into western Kansas. If the slower
solutions are correct, then more moisture will be pulled northward
ahead of the system, and ahead of a dryline, and the storm chances
will increase. If storms develop the chances of severe are looking
increasingly better with good shear in place. If the faster
solutions are correct then the dryline could push out of southwest
and south central Kansas and into central Kansas with minimal
chances for storms across western Kansas.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s through the period with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning warming into
the 40s and 50s into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BUFR soundings indicating moisture will increase at and above the
850mb level as mid level lift improves ahead of an upper level
trough approaches western Kansas overnight. Cloud bases will
thicken and lower early this morning but VFR conditions are
anticipated tonight and Thursday based on the latest BUFR
soundings and HRRR. With the increase in moisture and lift there
will be a chance for rain...mainly between 09z and 18z at DDC and
GCK. Along with this chance of precipitation the ceilings may
briefly fall into the MVFR criteria early this morning. Northeast
winds will be/decrease to around 10kts overnight and then
gradually veer to the southeast early Thursday as a surface ridge
axis begins to build into central Kansas from the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  52  36  72 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  39  53  36  75 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  40  54  38  76 /  60  70   0   0
LBL  41  53  37  77 /  50  70   0   0
HYS  37  54  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  52  39  71 /  50  70   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 162252
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Tonight:

An upper level shortwave trough will move across the region through
the overnight. At the base of the trough, enhanced 300 Kelvin isentropic
lift and 900-700-hPa frontogenesis will lead to some precipitation beginning
tonight and continuing into tomorrow morning. Mesoscale models such
as the 4 km NAM and WRF-NMM/ARW, as well as the operational NAM have
trended with more of a southern track for this precip. As a result,
have adjusted pops with the highest probabilities across the southern
2 rows of counties. Locations along the Oklahoma border stand to see
most of the precip. The thermodynamic profile supports liquid precipitation.
The top down method suggests the slight (and I mean very low) probability
of mixed precipitation across far western Kansas at the tail end of
the event. Confidence though is extremely low on this evolving like
this and most areas should just see rain. Instability/mucape is not
forecast to be significant or even present, so thunderstorms are not
expected. Precipitation amounts look to be several hundredths along
Highway 50, to a few tenths near the Oklahoma border. South-central
Kansas could see the highest amounts with 3 or so tenths not out of
the question. The northern zones will see nothing. Non-freezing minimums
expected through the overnight into the morning hours.

Tomorrow:

Lingering precip and clouds will lead to lower maximums across south-
central Kansas. Some models don`t break out of the 40sF for P28, but
feel this might be a bit overdone. Elsewhere, 50sF are expected. Other
than some precip across the southeastern zones through 18Z, tomorrow
should be mainly dry with clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and upslope
low level winds by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The next chances for measurable rainfall are with 2 storm systems
coming into the Plains, the first one this Easter Weekend, then a
much stronger storm system by Wednesday of next week.

The Easter system will move northeastward from the Desert Southwest
as a subtropical upper level shortwave trough and into the Central
and Southern Plains on Saturday. Lots of high level cloudiness is
forecast on Saturday, and limited moisture return, will keep layer
instability low, so the probability of severe thunderstorms looks
minimal at this time. Will keep the thunderstorms chances of 30 to
40 percent from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. By sunrise
Sunday morning much of the rainfall will be moving east into south
central Kansas.

Then next storm system will move out into the Plains by next
Wednesday as a strong upper level low and attendant shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. The new ECMWF model
shows the system a bit faster than the GFS. Ensemble members of the
GFS are about split between the current slower operational member
and the faster solutions. So lots of uncertainty exists in the timing
of this next storm system into western Kansas. If the slower
solutions are correct, then more moisture will be pulled northward
ahead of the system, and ahead of a dryline, and the storm chances
will increase. If storms develop the chances of severe are looking
increasingly better with good shear in place. If the faster
solutions are correct then the dryline could push out of southwest
and south central Kansas and into central Kansas with minimal
chances for storms across western Kansas.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s through the period with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning warming into
the 40s and 50s into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Plenty of moisture is in the mid and upper layers of the
atmosphere. High clouds blanketed southwest Kansas this evening,
along with north winds of 18g25kt. A cold front in northern
Oklahoma will stay nearly stationary tonight, as an upper level
trough crosses from west to east. There is a chance for light rain
showers at KGCK after 08Z, and at KDDC after 10Z. The
precipitation may not reach as far north as KHYS. The trough will
pass by 17Z Thursday, when all precip should have moved east of
our TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  53  36  72 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  39  55  36  75 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  40  56  38  76 /  60  50   0   0
LBL  41  55  37  77 /  60  60   0   0
HYS  37  55  36  72 /  10  10   0   0
P28  44  51  39  71 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burke








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