000
FXUS63 KDDC 190854
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
A MINOR SHORT WAVE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING, AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18Z. THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ENDING PRIOR TO 18Z, EXCEPT
FOR THE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR EVEN THE
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 BY 00Z THIS EVENING IN THE FAR WEST.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, AS THE STORMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD, THEY
HAVE ALSO BEEN WEAKENING. SO BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL MISS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTH OF I-70,
WHERE OVER 2 INCHES FELL IN SPOTS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT, AND BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, TODAY
SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM UP AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE MID 80S NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO PRATT, AND RANGE TO
THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS. ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL
DROP OFF TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD BOTH DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES UP A TAD, WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED MOISTURE TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
UNLESS THEY COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONS IT SELF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALSO TO MENTION, FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AS RH`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NEEDED.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
102 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY THEN BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102
DEGREES. LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. I THINK THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THE 3 TAFS BY 09Z. EVEN SO, MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE HIGH BASED AND CIGS WITHIN THE -TSRA WILL ONLY LOWER TO
OVC050. FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT AROUND 11
KNOTS, BUT CUT GUST HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP TO 16G25KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 67 99 73 / 40 20 10 10
GCK 90 66 100 72 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 93 66 101 71 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 92 67 101 73 / 30 10 10 10
HYS 86 67 96 73 / 40 20 10 10
P28 87 68 97 74 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 190741
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
241 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
TONIGHT:
KDDC WSR-88D INDICATING RETURNED POWER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NW KANSAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...MID 60S.
TOMORROW:
EARLY CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A SFC
CONVERGENCE LINE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS PEAKING AT 18Z AND
THEN TAPERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE AND RESULTANT
SUPPORT MOVES EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED MOISTURE TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
UNLESS THEY COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONS IT SELF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALSO TO MENTION, FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AS RH`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NEEDED.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
102 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY THEN BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102
DEGREES. LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. I THINK THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THE 3 TAFS BY 09Z. EVEN SO, MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE HIGH BASED AND CIGS WITHIN THE -TSRA WILL ONLY LOWER TO
OVC050. FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT AROUND 11
KNOTS, BUT CUT GUST HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP TO 16G25KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 67 99 73 / 40 20 10 10
GCK 90 66 100 72 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 93 66 101 71 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 92 67 101 73 / 30 10 10 10
HYS 86 67 96 73 / 40 20 10 10
P28 87 68 97 74 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 190551
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
TONIGHT:
KDDC WSR-88D INDICATING RETURNED POWER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NW KANSAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...MID 60S.
TOMORROW:
EARLY CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A SFC
CONVERGENCE LINE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS PEAKING AT 18Z AND
THEN TAPERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE AND RESULTANT
SUPPORT MOVES EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. I THINK THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THE 3 TAFS BY 09Z. EVEN SO, MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE HIGH BASED AND CIGS WITHIN THE -TSRA WILL ONLY LOWER TO
OVC050. FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT AROUND 11
KNOTS, BUT CUT GUST HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP TO 16G25KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 99 72 97 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 66 101 72 101 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 66 102 71 101 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 67 102 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 67 94 72 98 / 20 10 10 10
P28 68 95 73 95 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 182321
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
TONIGHT:
KDDC WSR-88D INDICATING RETURNED POWER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NW KANSAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...MID 60S.
TOMORROW:
EARLY CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A SFC
CONVERGENCE LINE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS PEAKING AT 18Z AND
THEN TAPERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE AND RESULTANT
SUPPORT MOVES EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HAYS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNSET. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE DODGE CITY AIRPORT BETWEEN 0230Z AND
04Z IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER. ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BE ABOVE
4000 FEET SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PREVAILING WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 88 67 99 / 30 40 20 10
GCK 63 90 66 101 / 30 40 10 10
EHA 63 93 66 102 / 30 20 10 10
LBL 63 92 67 102 / 30 30 10 10
HYS 66 86 67 94 / 30 40 20 10
P28 67 87 68 95 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181800
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
TONIGHT:
KDDC WSR-88D INDICATING RETURNED POWER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NW KANSAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...MID 60S.
TOMORROW:
EARLY CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A SFC
CONVERGENCE LINE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS PEAKING AT 18Z AND
THEN TAPERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE AND RESULTANT
SUPPORT MOVES EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF SAID ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE SE/S
5-11 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 64 88 67 / 20 30 40 20
GCK 84 63 90 66 / 20 30 40 10
EHA 83 63 93 66 / 20 30 20 10
LBL 85 63 92 67 / 20 30 30 10
HYS 87 66 86 67 / 20 30 40 20
P28 90 67 87 68 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181745
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST. AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF SAID ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE SE/S
5-11 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 64 88 67 / 20 30 40 20
GCK 84 63 90 66 / 20 30 40 10
EHA 83 63 93 66 / 20 30 20 10
LBL 85 63 92 67 / 20 30 30 10
HYS 87 66 86 67 / 20 30 40 20
P28 90 67 87 68 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181704
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST. AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF SAID ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE SE/S
5-11 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 63 87 69 / 20 40 40 30
GCK 84 63 90 68 / 20 50 30 20
EHA 83 63 93 68 / 50 60 30 10
LBL 85 64 91 69 / 20 50 30 20
HYS 87 63 85 69 / 20 20 40 30
P28 90 66 86 70 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST. AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 63 87 69 / 20 40 40 30
GCK 84 63 90 68 / 20 50 30 20
EHA 83 63 93 68 / 50 60 30 10
LBL 85 64 91 69 / 20 50 30 20
HYS 87 63 85 69 / 20 20 40 30
P28 90 66 86 70 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 181122
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST. AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIMEFRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 63 87 69 / 20 40 40 30
GCK 84 63 90 68 / 20 50 30 20
EHA 81 63 93 68 / 50 60 30 10
LBL 84 64 91 69 / 20 50 30 20
HYS 84 63 85 69 / 20 20 40 30
P28 84 66 86 70 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180724
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST. AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIMEFRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULD`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
JUST A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN AND FORM A CIG, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PICKING UP TO 11G21KTS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 63 87 69 / 20 40 40 30
GCK 84 63 90 68 / 20 50 30 20
EHA 81 63 93 68 / 50 60 30 10
LBL 84 64 91 69 / 20 50 30 20
HYS 84 63 85 69 / 20 20 40 30
P28 84 66 86 70 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180639
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
139 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST. AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
JUST A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN AND FORM A CIG, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PICKING UP TO 11G21KTS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 63 86 68 / 20 40 30 20
GCK 84 63 88 67 / 20 50 20 20
EHA 81 63 94 67 / 50 60 30 10
LBL 84 64 90 68 / 20 50 30 10
HYS 84 63 84 68 / 20 20 20 30
P28 84 66 86 70 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180517
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TONIGHT:
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, SOME DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE REGION, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG F...FEEL THAT IT IS NOT THE BEST TO SIDE WITH THE CONSERVATIVE
NAM SOLUTION AS THIS TIME. THE WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND 4 KM NESTED NAM
ALL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER EAST THAN THE REGULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE 12Z NAM. AS A RESULT, HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AS FAR AS SEVERE IS CONCERNED,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS SHOW OVERALL LIMIT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL. THINK
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENTLY THINK
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA IS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND THE
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS NW KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THESE AREAS
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WRF MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL WELL AFTER 06Z, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MINIMUMS
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...UPPER 50S OUT WEST TO LOWER
60S EAST.
TOMORROW:
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TOWARDS THE
END OF MY PERIOD (00Z), INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY
OUT WEST WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
JUST A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN AND FORM A CIG, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PICKING UP TO 11G21KTS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 86 68 97 / 40 30 20 10
GCK 63 88 67 98 / 50 20 20 0
EHA 63 94 67 99 / 60 30 10 0
LBL 64 90 68 99 / 50 30 10 10
HYS 63 84 68 95 / 20 20 30 10
P28 66 86 70 94 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 172303 AAA
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TONIGHT:
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, SOME DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE REGION, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG F...FEEL THAT IT IS NOT THE BEST TO SIDE WITH THE CONSERVATIVE
NAM SOLUTION AS THIS TIME. THE WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND 4 KM NESTED NAM
ALL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER EAST THAN THE REGULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE 12Z NAM. AS A RESULT, HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AS FAR AS SEVERE IS CONCERNED,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS SHOW OVERALL LIMIT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL. THINK
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENTLY THINK
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA IS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND THE
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS NW KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THESE AREAS
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WRF MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL WELL AFTER 06Z, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MINIMUMS
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...UPPER 50S OUT WEST TO LOWER
60S EAST.
TOMORROW:
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TOWARDS THE
END OF MY PERIOD (00Z), INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY
OUT WEST WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST INDICATIONS ARE THEY COULD STAY TO
THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 84 63 86 / 60 20 40 30
GCK 60 84 63 88 / 60 20 50 20
EHA 59 81 63 94 / 60 50 60 30
LBL 61 84 64 90 / 60 20 50 30
HYS 59 84 63 84 / 60 20 20 20
P28 65 84 66 86 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 172033
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TONIGHT:
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, SOME DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE REGION, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG F...FEEL THAT IT IS NOT THE BEST TO SIDE WITH THE CONSERVATIVE
NAM SOLUTION AS THIS TIME. THE WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND 4 KM NESTED NAM
ALL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER EAST THAN THE REGULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE 12Z NAM. AS A RESULT, HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AS FAR AS SEVERE IS CONCERNED,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS SHOW OVERALL LIMIT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL. THINK
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENTLY THINK
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA IS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND THE
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS NW KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THESE AREAS
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WRF MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL WELL AFTER 06Z, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MINIMUMS
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...UPPER 50S OUT WEST TO LOWER
60S EAST.
TOMORROW:
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TOWARDS THE
END OF MY PERIOD (00Z), INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY
OUT WEST WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT THINK ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS. WINDS NE 8-12 KT VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT BY DUSK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 84 63 86 / 60 20 40 30
GCK 60 84 63 88 / 60 20 50 20
EHA 59 81 63 94 / 60 50 60 30
LBL 61 84 64 90 / 60 20 50 30
HYS 59 84 63 84 / 60 20 20 20
P28 65 84 66 86 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN
000
FXUS63 KDDC 171948
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
248 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT THINK ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS. WINDS NE 8-12 KT VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT BY DUSK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 84 63 86 / 60 20 40 30
GCK 60 84 63 88 / 60 20 50 20
EHA 59 81 63 94 / 60 50 60 30
LBL 61 84 64 90 / 60 20 50 30
HYS 59 84 63 84 / 60 20 20 20
P28 65 84 66 86 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN
000
FXUS63 KDDC 171700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM. THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY. A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS. NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT THINK ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS. WINDS NE 8-12 KT VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT BY DUSK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 62 83 63 / 20 30 30 40
GCK 87 61 82 63 / 20 50 30 40
EHA 86 61 82 63 / 20 60 40 40
LBL 87 62 82 64 / 20 50 30 40
HYS 87 63 82 63 / 10 20 20 50
P28 87 66 84 66 / 10 20 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
000
FXUS63 KDDC 171500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM. THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY. A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS. NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY, WITH CIGS
IN THE BKN150-200 RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING, BUT BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS
MORNING, AND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IS LACKING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 62 83 63 / 20 30 30 40
GCK 87 61 82 63 / 20 50 30 40
EHA 86 61 82 63 / 20 60 40 40
LBL 87 62 82 64 / 20 50 30 40
HYS 87 63 82 63 / 10 20 20 50
P28 87 66 84 66 / 10 20 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 171146
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM. THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY. A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS. NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY, WITH CIGS
IN THE BKN150-200 RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING, BUT BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS
MORNING, AND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IS LACKING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 62 83 63 / 20 30 30 40
GCK 87 61 82 63 / 20 50 30 40
EHA 86 61 82 63 / 20 60 40 40
LBL 87 62 82 64 / 20 50 30 40
HYS 87 63 82 63 / 10 20 20 50
P28 87 66 84 66 / 10 20 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 170838
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM. THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY. A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS. NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AOA100
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 62 83 63 / 20 30 30 40
GCK 87 61 82 63 / 20 50 30 40
EHA 86 61 82 63 / 20 60 40 40
LBL 87 62 82 64 / 20 50 30 40
HYS 87 63 82 63 / 10 20 20 50
P28 87 66 84 66 / 20 20 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 170720
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
JET IS PROJECTED TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEE OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
STORMS POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO THE
DELAYED RETURN OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
20C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
90S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MORE WIDESPREAD 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AOA100
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 62 83 63 / 20 30 30 40
GCK 87 61 82 63 / 20 50 30 40
EHA 86 61 82 63 / 20 60 40 40
LBL 87 62 82 64 / 20 50 30 40
HYS 87 63 82 63 / 10 20 20 50
P28 87 66 84 66 / 20 20 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 170539
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. ONE OF THESE WAS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND YET ANOTHER
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO STORMS AND AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS FIRST,
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORM CELLS OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
TRACK. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH AT LEAST AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT`S LOWS
AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN ALL OF THE EXPECTED
OUTFLOW, WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 59 AND 63F. MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF AIRMASS RECOVERY AS WE GET READY FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF MCS ACTIVITY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
JET IS PROJECTED TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEE OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
STORMS POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO THE
DELAYED RETURN OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
20C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
90S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MORE WIDESPREAD 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AOA100
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 83 63 86 / 30 30 40 40
GCK 62 82 63 87 / 40 30 40 40
EHA 62 82 63 92 / 40 40 40 20
LBL 63 82 64 90 / 40 30 40 30
HYS 62 82 63 84 / 30 30 50 50
P28 64 84 66 86 / 30 30 40 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 162312
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS FEATURED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER MIDWEST JET STREAK AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A SOUTHERN ROCKIES JET STREAK. THIS IS A CLASSIC MCS PATTERN FOR
WESTERN KANSAS IN JUNE SINCE MID LEVEL CAPPING TENDS TO BE WEAK.
ALSO, MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES TENDS TO PROMOTE DAILY
LEESIDE TROUGHING WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE PLAINS AND AIRMASS RECOVERY. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LAST NIGHT`S MCS, WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW POSITIONED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, A CUMULUS FIELD WAS ALREADY FESTERING IN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 3 PM
AND OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ALREADY IN EXISTENCE FROM
COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. ONE OF THESE WAS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND YET ANOTHER
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO STORMS AND AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS FIRST,
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORM CELLS OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
TRACK. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH AT LEAST AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT`S LOWS
AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN ALL OF THE EXPECTED
OUTFLOW, WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 59 AND 63F. MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF AIRMASS RECOVERY AS WE GET READY FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF MCS ACTIVITY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
JET IS PROJECTED TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEE OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
STORMS POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO THE
DELAYED RETURN OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
20C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
90S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MORE WIDESPREAD 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS, A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 87 62 83 / 70 10 30 30
GCK 62 87 62 82 / 70 10 40 30
EHA 64 87 62 82 / 50 10 40 40
LBL 64 88 63 82 / 60 10 40 30
HYS 62 86 62 82 / 50 10 30 30
P28 65 86 64 84 / 70 20 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 162105
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS FEATURED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER MIDWEST JET STREAK AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A SOUTHERN ROCKIES JET STREAK. THIS IS A CLASSIC MCS PATTERN FOR
WESTERN KANSAS IN JUNE SINCE MID LEVEL CAPPING TENDS TO BE WEAK.
ALSO, MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES TENDS TO PROMOTE DAILY
LEESIDE TROUGHING WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE PLAINS AND AIRMASS RECOVERY. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LAST NIGHT`S MCS, WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW POSITIONED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, A CUMULUS FIELD WAS ALREADY FESTERING IN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 3 PM
AND OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ALREADY IN EXISTENCE FROM
COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. ONE OF THESE WAS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND YET ANOTHER
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO STORMS AND AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS FIRST,
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORM CELLS OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
TRACK. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH AT LEAST AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT`S LOWS
AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN ALL OF THE EXPECTED
OUTFLOW, WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 59 AND 63F. MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF AIRMASS RECOVERY AS WE GET READY FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF MCS ACTIVITY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
JET IS PROJECTED TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEE OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
STORMS POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO THE
DELAYED RETURN OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
20C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
90S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MORE WIDESPREAD 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST, AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 01 AND 06 UTC WITH STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 87 62 83 / 60 20 30 30
GCK 62 87 62 82 / 60 10 40 30
EHA 64 87 62 82 / 60 10 40 40
LBL 64 88 63 82 / 60 20 40 30
HYS 62 86 62 82 / 60 20 30 30
P28 65 86 64 84 / 70 50 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
000
FXUS63 KDDC 162044
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...UPDATED FOR SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS FEATURED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER MIDWEST JET STREAK AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A SOUTHERN ROCKIES JET STREAK. THIS IS A CLASSIC MCS PATTERN FOR
WESTERN KANSAS IN JUNE SINCE MID LEVEL CAPPING TENDS TO BE WEAK.
ALSO, MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES TENDS TO PROMOTE DAILY
LEESIDE TROUGHING WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE PLAINS AND AIRMASS RECOVERY. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY LAST NIGHT`S MCS, WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW POSITIONED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, A CUMULUS FIELD WAS ALREADY FESTERING IN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 3 PM
AND OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ALREADY IN EXISTENCE FROM
COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. ONE OF THESE WAS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND YET ANOTHER
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO STORMS AND AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS FIRST,
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORM CELLS OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
TRACK. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH AT LEAST AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT`S LOWS
AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN ALL OF THE EXPECTED
OUTFLOW, WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 59 AND 63F. MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF AIRMASS RECOVERY AS WE GET READY FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF MCS ACTIVITY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OUT A LITTLE ACTIVE, WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL TRAIN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MOST OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS
DRY AND WARMER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THEN BY NEXT SUNDAY, AN UPPER WAVE WILL EDGE IN FROM THE
WEST AND HELP BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK RELATIVELY COOL, WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOMEWHAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
BRINGS SOME WARM TO HOT AIR BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BASICALLY RANGE IN THE 90S TO NEAR
100F DEGREES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, RISING INTO THE 70S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST, AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 01 AND 06 UTC WITH STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 87 62 83 / 70 20 30 30
GCK 62 87 62 82 / 70 10 40 30
EHA 64 87 62 82 / 40 10 40 40
LBL 64 88 63 82 / 50 20 40 30
HYS 62 86 62 82 / 60 20 30 30
P28 65 86 64 84 / 70 50 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH
000
FXUS63 KDDC 161800
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING UP AND OVER THIS RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES C AT 700 MB. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 80 AND LOWER 90S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THE MORNING DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY
THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THESE STORMS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
FORM INTO A CLUSTER OR MCS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE IN NATURE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OUT A LITTLE ACTIVE, WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL TRAIN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MOST OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS
DRY AND WARMER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THEN BY NEXT SUNDAY, AN UPPER WAVE WILL EDGE IN FROM THE
WEST AND HELP BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK RELATIVELY COOL, WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOMEWHAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
BRINGS SOME WARM TO HOT AIR BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BASICALLY RANGE IN THE 90S TO NEAR
100F DEGREES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, RISING INTO THE 70S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST, AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 01 AND 06 UTC WITH STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 65 86 62 / 10 60 20 30
GCK 89 64 86 62 / 10 60 10 40
EHA 92 64 87 62 / 20 60 10 40
LBL 91 65 86 63 / 10 60 20 40
HYS 87 64 85 62 / 10 60 20 30
P28 91 68 88 64 / 20 70 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH
000
FXUS63 KDDC 161119
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING UP AND OVER THIS RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES C AT 700 MB. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 80 AND LOWER 90S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THE MORNING DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY
THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THESE STORMS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
FORM INTO A CLUSTER OR MCS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING THEN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE IN NATURE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OUT A LITTLE ACTIVE, WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL TRAIN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MOST OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS
DRY AND WARMER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED JUST TO
OUR WEST. THEN BY NEXT SUNDAY, AN UPPER WAVE WILL EDGE IN FROM THE
WEST AND HELP BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK RELATIVELY COOL, WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOMEWHAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. THEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
BRINGS SOME WARM TO HOT AIR BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BASICALLY RANGE IN THE 90S TO NEAR
100F DEGREES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, RISING INTO THE 70S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18 HOURS, WITH JUST A FEW MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, EXCEPT AT KHYS WHERE
NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS. TONIGHT, THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AS THERE WAS SATURDAY NIGHT. TAFS
WILL BE UPDATED LATER TO REFLECT THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 65 86 62 / 40 70 20 30
GCK 89 64 86 62 / 40 50 10 40
EHA 92 64 87 62 / 40 40 20 40
LBL 91 65 86 63 / 40 50 20 40
HYS 87 64 85 62 / 40 80 20 30
P28 91 68 88 64 / 40 80 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE
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