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000
FXUS63 KDDC 242330 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A surface high/ridge axis will move across western Kansas early
tonight, and then move into Oklahoma after midnight. At this time
the lighter winds between 06z and 12z Friday will be across south
central Kansas so will undercut guidance for lows in this area.
Further west where a southerly flow increases to around 10 mph
will continue to favor the current forecast with temperatures
slightly above the latest MAV and MET guidance.

A surface trough of low pressure will deepen during the day on
Friday near the Kansas/Colorado border. 850mb temperatures
indicate at 7c to near 10c 24hour warm up from 00z Friday to 00z
Saturday, especially in southwest Kansas where afternoon
dewpoints are expected to be only in the mid 20s. Based on the
850mb temperature trends the highs on Friday should easily climb
into the low to mid 80s. Based on the mixing potential on Friday
the southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by
late morning with the stronger wind speeds being near and east of
highway 83. Wind speeds will be weaker further west due to the
expected location of the surface lee trough. Based on the wind
speed late day across southwest Kansas combined with afternoon relative
humidities falling back into the 10 to 15 percent range the fire
danger levels will range from elevated to near critical. At this
time confidence on wind speeds meeting Red Flag Warning Criteria
is not high so after collaboration between surrounding offices am
leaning towards not issuing a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning. Will updated the Hazardous weather outlook to mention the
increased fire danger levels.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Medium range models indicate a weak upper level ridge of high
pressure moving east across the Central Plains early Saturday
resulting in dry conditions across western Kansas through Saturday
afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low pressure
will move across southern California into the Desert Southwest
Saturday bringing the possibility for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas Saturday evening into early Sunday. As
the shortwave approaches, it will become more negatively tilted
while moisture near the surface will continue to pool ahead of a
sharpening dryline generally setting up across southwest Kansas.
As upper level dynamics become more favorable, increasing
instability and steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will
set the stage for thunderstorm development across central Kansas
toward Saturday evening. Depending on the location of the dryline,
a few storms may be possible in eastern portions of southwest
Kansas. Based on GFS/ECMWF model soundings, the potential for
severe weather exists. CAPE values in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/KG
and increasing vertical shear profiles as the evening progresses
supports the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and
possibly tornadoes. Any thunderstorm development could be
prolonged into early Sunday morning as a low level jet develops
overnight. Precip chances shift northeast Sunday as the upper
level trough lifts northeastward across the Western High Plains.
Precip chances are expected to dwindle through mid week as
prevailing north to northwest low level flow develops across
western Kansas bringing drier/cooler air into the region.

Temperatures will be above normal Saturday as weak upper level
ridging moves eastward across the Central Plains. A south to
southwesterly flow will continue to enhance warm air advection into
western Kansas raising H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest and central Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper
80s(F) are likely Saturday afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible
closer to the Oklahoma border, especially across extreme southwest
Kansas behind the dryline. Cooler temperatures are expected early
next week as a cold front moves through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue into Friday. An upper level ridge
will move into the Plains on Friday. Light and variable winds
will gradually become light south later this evening and
overnight. The south winds increase to 14-24kt by mid to late
morning on Friday as a lee trough strengthens. High level
cloudiness increases on Friday also.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  84  54  88 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  42  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  87  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  86  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
P28  41  83  58  90 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 242000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A surface high/ridge axis will move across western Kansas early
tonight, and then move into Oklahoma after midnight. At this time
the lighter winds between 06z and 12z Friday will be across south
central Kansas so will undercut guidance for lows in this area.
Further west where a southerly flow increases to around 10 mph
will continue to favor the current forecast with temperatures
slightly above the latest MAV and MET guidance.

A surface trough of low pressure will deepen during the day on
Friday near the Kansas/Colorado border. 850mb temperatures
indicate at 7c to near 10c 24hour warm up from 00z Friday to 00z
Saturday, especially in southwest Kansas where afternoon
dewpoints are expected to be only in the mid 20s. Based on the
850mb temperature trends the highs on Friday should easily climb
into the low to mid 80s. Based on the mixing potential on Friday
the southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by
late morning with the stronger wind speeds being near and east of
highway 83. Wind speeds will be weaker further west due to the
expected location of the surface lee trough. Based on the wind
speed late day across southwest Kansas combined with afternoon relative
humidities falling back into the 10 to 15 percent range the fire
danger levels will range from elevated to near critical. At this
time confidence on wind speeds meeting Red Flag Warning Criteria
is not high so after collaboration between surrounding offices am
leaning towards not issuing a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning. Will updated the Hazardous weather outlook to mention the
increased fire danger levels.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Medium range models indicate a weak upper level ridge of high
pressure moving east across the Central Plains early Saturday
resulting in dry conditions across western Kansas through Saturday
afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low pressure
will move across southern California into the Desert Southwest
Saturday bringing the possibility for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas Saturday evening into early Sunday. As
the shortwave approaches, it will become more negatively tilted
while moisture near the surface will continue to pool ahead of a
sharpening dryline generally setting up across southwest Kansas.
As upper level dynamics become more favorable, increasing
instability and steepening lapse rates ahead of the dryline will
set the stage for thunderstorm development across central Kansas
toward Saturday evening. Depending on the location of the dryline,
a few storms may be possible in eastern portions of southwest
Kansas. Based on GFS/ECMWF model soundings, the potential for
severe weather exists. CAPE values in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/KG
and increasing vertical shear profiles as the evening progresses
supports the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and
possibly tornadoes. Any thunderstorm development could be
prolonged into early Sunday morning as a low level jet develops
overnight. Precip chances shift northeast Sunday as the upper
level trough lifts northeastward across the Western High Plains.
Precip chances are expected to dwindle through mid week as
prevailing north to northwest low level flow develops across
western Kansas bringing drier/cooler air into the region.

Temperatures will be above normal Saturday as weak upper level
ridging moves eastward across the Central Plains. A south to
southwesterly flow will continue to enhance warm air advection into
western Kansas raising H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest and central Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper
80s(F) are likely Saturday afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible
closer to the Oklahoma border, especially across extreme southwest
Kansas behind the dryline. Cooler temperatures are expected early
next week as a cold front moves through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Gusty northwest winds will decrease during the afternoon and
early evening period as an area of high pressure at the surface
moves into the Central High Plains. As this area of high pressure
moves into western Oklahoma overnight the light winds will become
south and begin to gradually increase to around 10 knots by 12z
Friday. Southerly winds will continue to increase early Friday as
a trough of low pressure deepens near the Colorado border. VFR
conditions can be expected through Friday given the subsidence
developing behind the upper level trough moving east towards
Missouri today along with limit moisture forecast across western
Kansas based on BUFR soundings.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  84  54  88 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  42  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  87  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  86  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
P28  41  83  58  90 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 241924
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated short term and fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A surface high/ridge axis will move across western Kansas early
tonight, and then move into Oklahoma after midnight. At this time
the lighter winds between 06z and 12z Friday will be across south
central Kansas so will undercut guidance for lows in this area.
Further west where a southerly flow increases to around 10 mph
will continue to favor the current forecast with temperatures
slightly above the latest MAV and MET guidance.

A surface trough of low pressure will deepen during the day on
Friday near the Kansas/Colorado border. 850mb temperatures
indicate at 7c to near 10c 24hour warm up from 00z Friday to 00z
Saturday, especially in southwest Kansas where afternoon
dewpoints are expected to be only in the mid 20s. Based on the
850mb temperature trends the highs on Friday should easily climb
into the low to mid 80s. Based on the mixing potential on Friday
the southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by
late morning with the stronger wind speeds being near and east of
highway 83. Wind speeds will be weaker further west due to the
expected location of the surface lee trough. Based on the wind
speed late day across southwest Kansas combined with afternoon relative
humidities falling back into the 10 to 15 percent range the fire
danger levels will range from elevated to near critical. At this
time confidence on wind speeds meeting Red Flag Warning Criteria
is not high so after collaboration between surrounding offices am
leaning towards not issuing a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning. Will updated the Hazardous weather outlook to mention the
increased fire danger levels.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

There is a good chance there will be some severe weather on Saturday
late afternoon and evening, east of a dry-line that will set up and
march into our eastern zones.  By 21z or so Saturday, there will be
plenty of upper lift from an upper trough/wave over Nevada, with a
surface low over northwestern Kansas.  A cold front will be to the
west, with a dry-line forming in the western Kansas by noon, and
moving into the highway 183 by 21Z or so.  Those ingredients will be
enough for some strong storms capable of large hail and even
possibly a few tornadoes. It will also get quite warm Saturday,
due to strong warm air advection from the south.  Our southern
border with Oklahoma will reach the lower 90s, while the area north
of I-70 will top out around 80 degrees. Furthermore, the tight
pressure gradient will produce strong south to southwest winds,
and a fire weather product will likely be needed, for about our
western half of our forecast area.  For now, since Saturday is 3
days out, I will wait at least one more day/shift before putting a
fire weather watch out. Precipitation chances will linger through
Saturday night, with upper support still overhead. On Sunday, the
higher level dew points in our east, and with the front nearly
stationary in our north, will both warrant low chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms, but they will not likely be in the
severe category.

On Monday, that front will come back south as a cold front, and with
a little more cold air behind it, and Monday will get windy
behind the frontal passage.  There could be a few showers Monday
afternoon in our northern CWA, near and along the front, and
showers will spread south Monday night and Tuesday.  Monday night
will chill into the upper 30s in the Syracuse, Scott City and
Garden City areas, and range to the mid 40s in the Medicine Lodge
areas. Tuesday also looks very windy as the gradient behind the
front strengthens.  Unfortunately for many southwest Kansans, it
may be even colder on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, as the
cold air mass will be settling further south and west.  The upper
30s and perhaps even a few mid 30s may occur in far western Kansas
both Tuesday night/Wednesday night.  Frost conditions will have to
be monitored as those time frames gets closer.

The upper trough/low should be east of us by Tuesday, and the
precipitation chances will diminish.  Max temps will average in the
lower to mid 60s for Tue, Wed, and Thur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Gusty northwest winds will decrease during the afternoon and
early evening period as an area of high pressure at the surface
moves into the Central High Plains. As this area of high pressure
moves into western Oklahoma overnight the light winds will become
south and begin to gradually increase to around 10 knots by 12z
Friday. Southerly winds will continue to increase early Friday as
a trough of low pressure deepens near the Colorado border. VFR
conditions can be expected through Friday given the subsidence
developing behind the upper level trough moving east towards
Missouri today along with limit moisture forecast across western
Kansas based on BUFR soundings.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Friday afternoon. Afternoon
dewpoints west of highway 83 will fall back into the mid to upper 20s
which will result in relative humidity values bottoming out
between 10 to 15 percent range by late day. Wind speeds west of
highway 83 will be 10 to 20 mph. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions are expected Friday late afternoon. Outdoor
burning is discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  84  54  88 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  42  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  44  87  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  86  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
P28  41  83  58  90 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 241709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

At 12z Thursday a -17c to -19c 500mb trough extended from the
panhandle of Texas into Nebraska. A 700mb baroclinic zone extended
from northeast Nebraska into the panhandle of Texas under this
500mb trough. A surface and 850mb cold front extended from western
Iowa into western Oklahoma at 12Z Thursday while further west a
850mb and 700mb ridge axis extended from eastern Colorado into
southwest South Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

For the remainder of tonight into early this morning, the
aforementioned 700-500-hPa circulation will shift slowly east into
central Kansas. On the back side of this low a TROWAL axis and
resultant area of frontogenesis will permit the area of light rain
along the Colorado border, to follow the wave into central Kansas.
This will result in a few sprinkles although a few locations may measure
a few hundredths of an inch. In addition, the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight enough to bring gusty north to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph through early afternoon.

The pattern will then turn very quiet by late afternoon as the
aforementioned closed 700-500-hPa circulation, shifts east into the
mid Mississippi River valley.  Behind this wave strong subsidence
will spread across western and central Kansas with a resultant clear
sky prevailing this afternoon. This will permit deep thermal mixing
up to 700 hPa with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the
lower to mid 70s.

A benign evening to overnight will then dominate cross the Central
High Plains as surface high pressure ridges into Kansas.  This will
allow winds to ease quickly during the afternoon hours with light
winds and a clear sky bringing cool temperatures.  Temperatures will
bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

There is a good chance there will be some severe weather on Saturday
late afternoon and evening, east of a dry-line that will set up and
march into our eastern zones.  By 21z or so Saturday, there will be
plenty of upper lift from an upper trough/wave over Nevada, with a
surface low over northwestern Kansas.  A cold front will be to the
west, with a dry-line forming in the western Kansas by noon, and
moving into the highway 183 by 21Z or so.  Those ingredients will be
enough for some strong storms capable of large hail and even
possibly a few tornadoes. It will also get quite warm Saturday,
due to strong warm air advection from the south.  Our southern
border with Oklahoma will reach the lower 90s, while the area north
of I-70 will top out around 80 degrees. Furthermore, the tight
pressure gradient will produce strong south to southwest winds,
and a fire weather product will likely be needed, for about our
western half of our forecast area.  For now, since Saturday is 3
days out, I will wait at least one more day/shift before putting a
fire weather watch out. Precipitation chances will linger through
Saturday night, with upper support still overhead. On Sunday, the
higher level dew points in our east, and with the front nearly
stationary in our north, will both warrant low chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms, but they will not likely be in the
severe category.

On Monday, that front will come back south as a cold front, and with
a little more cold air behind it, and Monday will get windy
behind the frontal passage.  There could be a few showers Monday
afternoon in our northern CWA, near and along the front, and
showers will spread south Monday night and Tuesday.  Monday night
will chill into the upper 30s in the Syracuse, Scott City and
Garden City areas, and range to the mid 40s in the Medicine Lodge
areas. Tuesday also looks very windy as the gradient behind the
front strengthens.  Unfortunately for many southwest Kansans, it
may be even colder on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, as the
cold air mass will be settling further south and west.  The upper
30s and perhaps even a few mid 30s may occur in far western Kansas
both Tuesday night/Wednesday night.  Frost conditions will have to
be monitored as those time frames gets closer.

The upper trough/low should be east of us by Tuesday, and the
precipitation chances will diminish.  Max temps will average in the
lower to mid 60s for Tue, Wed, and Thur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Gusty northwest winds will decrease during the afternoon and
early evening period as an area of high pressure at the surface
moves into the Central High Plains. As this area of high pressure
moves into western Oklahoma overnight the light winds will become
south and begin to gradually increase to around 10 knots by 12z
Friday. Southerly winds will continue to increase early Friday as
a trough of low pressure deepens near the Colorado border. VFR
conditions can be expected through Friday given the subsidence
developing behind the upper level trough moving east towards
Missouri today along with limit moisture forecast across western
Kansas based on BUFR soundings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  42  84  54 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  70  42  84  50 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  70  44  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  42  86  53 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  70  42  82  51 /  10   0   0   0
P28  72  41  83  58 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 241130
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

For the remainder of tonight into early this morning, the
aforementioned 700-500-hPa circulation will shift slowly east into
central Kansas. On the back side of this low a TROWAL axis and
resultant area of frontogenesis will permit the area of light rain
along the Colorado border, to follow the wave into central Kansas.
This will result in a few sprinkles although a few locations may measure
a few hundredths of an inch. In addition, the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight enough to bring gusty north to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph through early afternoon.

The pattern will then turn very quiet by late afternoon as the
aforementioned closed 700-500-hPa circulation, shifts east into the
mid Mississippi River valley.  Behind this wave strong subsidence
will spread across western and central Kansas with a resultant clear
sky prevailing this afternoon. This will permit deep thermal mixing
up to 700 hPa with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the
lower to mid 70s.

A benign evening to overnight will then dominate cross the Central
High Plains as surface high pressure ridges into Kansas.  This will
allow winds to ease quickly during the afternoon hours with light
winds and a clear sky bringing cool temperatures.  Temperatures will
bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

There is a good chance there will be some severe weather on Saturday
late afternoon and evening, east of a dry-line that will set up and
march into our eastern zones.  By 21z or so Saturday, there will be
plenty of upper lift from an upper trough/wave over Nevada, with a
surface low over northwestern Kansas.  A cold front will be to the
west, with a dry-line forming in the western Kansas by noon, and
moving into the highway 183 by 21Z or so.  Those ingredients will be
enough for some strong storms capable of large hail and even
possibly a few tornadoes. It will also get quite warm Saturday,
due to strong warm air advection from the south.  Our southern
border with Oklahoma will reach the lower 90s, while the area north
of I-70 will top out around 80 degrees. Furthermore, the tight
pressure gradient will produce strong south to southwest winds,
and a fire weather product will likely be needed, for about our
western half of our forecast area.  For now, since Saturday is 3
days out, I will wait at least one more day/shift before putting a
fire weather watch out. Precipitation chances will linger through
Saturday night, with upper support still overhead. On Sunday, the
higher level dew points in our east, and with the front nearly
stationary in our north, will both warrant low chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms, but they will not likely be in the
severe category.

On Monday, that front will come back south as a cold front, and with
a little more cold air behind it, and Monday will get windy
behind the frontal passage.  There could be a few showers Monday
afternoon in our northern CWA, near and along the front, and
showers will spread south Monday night and Tuesday.  Monday night
will chill into the upper 30s in the Syracuse, Scott City and
Garden City areas, and range to the mid 40s in the Medicine Lodge
areas. Tuesday also looks very windy as the gradient behind the
front strengthens.  Unfortunately for many southwest Kansans, it
may be even colder on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, as the
cold air mass will be settling further south and west.  The upper
30s and perhaps even a few mid 30s may occur in far western Kansas
both Tuesday night/Wednesday night.  Frost conditions will have to
be monitored as those time frames gets closer.

The upper trough/low should be east of us by Tuesday, and the
precipitation chances will diminish.  Max temps will average in the
lower to mid 60s for Tue, Wed, and Thur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Now that the cold front is plunging southward through Oklahoma,
surface high pressure will build in. The precipitation has ended
and nearly cloud free skies will result by 15z. Some of the Taf
sites have already clear out (KDDC and KHYS), and KGCK will likely
clear out as well. There is still a pressure gradient across the
area, and northwest winds will increase into the 17g25kt range
this morning. Winds will settle down towards sunset, and blow at 8
to 10 knots through Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  45  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  70  43  84  50 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  46  85  52 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  72  44  86  53 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  70  43  81  51 /  20   0   0   0
P28  72  46  85  58 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burke








000
FXUS63 KDDC 240854
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Update for the long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

For the remainder of tonight into early this morning, the
aforementioned 700-500-hPa circulation will shift slowly east into
central Kansas. On the back side of this low a TROWAL axis and
resultant area of frontogenesis will permit the area of light rain
along the Colorado border, to follow the wave into central Kansas.
This will result in a few sprinkles although a few locations may measure
a few hundredths of an inch. In addition, the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight enough to bring gusty north to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph through early afternoon.

The pattern will then turn very quiet by late afternoon as the
aforementioned closed 700-500-hPa circulation, shifts east into the
mid Mississippi River valley.  Behind this wave strong subsidence
will spread across western and central Kansas with a resultant clear
sky prevailing this afternoon. This will permit deep thermal mixing
up to 700 hPa with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the
lower to mid 70s.

A benign evening to overnight will then dominate cross the Central
High Plains as surface high pressure ridges into Kansas.  This will
allow winds to ease quickly during the afternoon hours with light
winds and a clear sky bringing cool temperatures.  Temperatures will
bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

There is a good chance there will be some severe weather on Saturday
late afternoon and evening, east of a dry-line that will set up and
march into our eastern zones.  By 21z or so Saturday, there will be
plenty of upper lift from an upper trough/wave over Nevada, with a
surface low over northwestern Kansas.  A cold front will be to the
west, with a dry-line forming in the western Kansas by noon, and
moving into the highway 183 by 21Z or so.  Those ingredients will be
enough for some strong storms capable of large hail and even
possibly a few tornadoes. It will also get quite warm Saturday,
due to strong warm air advection from the south.  Our southern
border with Oklahoma will reach the lower 90s, while the area north
of I-70 will top out around 80 degrees. Furthermore, the tight
pressure gradient will produce strong south to southwest winds,
and a fire weather product will likely be needed, for about our
western half of our forecast area.  For now, since Saturday is 3
days out, I will wait at least one more day/shift before putting a
fire weather watch out. Precipitation chances will linger through
Saturday night, with upper support still overhead. On Sunday, the
higher level dew points in our east, and with the front nearly
stationary in our north, will both warrant low chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms, but they will not likely be in the
severe category.

On Monday, that front will come back south as a cold front, and with
a little more cold air behind it, and Monday will get windy
behind the frontal passage.  There could be a few showers Monday
afternoon in our northern CWA, near and along the front, and
showers will spread south Monday night and Tuesday.  Monday night
will chill into the upper 30s in the Syracuse, Scott City and
Garden City areas, and range to the mid 40s in the Medicine Lodge
areas. Tuesday also looks very windy as the gradient behind the
front strengthens.  Unfortunately for many southwest Kansans, it
may be even colder on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, as the
cold air mass will be settling further south and west.  The upper
30s and perhaps even a few mid 30s may occur in far western Kansas
both Tuesday night/Wednesday night.  Frost conditions will have to
be monitored as those time frames gets closer.

The upper trough/low should be east of us by Tuesday, and the
precipitation chances will diminish.  Max temps will average in the
lower to mid 60s for Tue, Wed, and Thur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A strong cold front will continue surging southward over western
and central Kansas into the overnight hours. Behind this boundary
a band of thunderstorms will move through the HYS and DDC terminals
through the mid overnight hours. MVFR ceilings and wind gusts up
to 50-60 mph will be possible within these thunderstorms. Further,
strong north to northwest winds of 25-35 mph along with higher
gusts will also be possible behind the front through the remainder
of tonight. High pressure will then build into the region later
this afternoon with winds easing quickly while an unlimited
ceiling develops.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  45  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  70  43  84  50 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  46  85  52 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  72  44  86  53 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  70  43  81  51 /  20   0   0   0
P28  72  46  85  58 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...AJohnson








000
FXUS63 KDDC 240841
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated Synopsis and Short Term Sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Water vapor imagery from this early morning, indicates a small
closed mid level circulation pushing across the Central Plains. On
the front side of this wave a pair of 70-80-kt jet streaks are
coupled together over western Kansas into central Nebraska. Upstream
from this wave, a low amplitude ridge over the Intermountain West is
beginning to flatten in response to a strong 100-knot upper jet
plowing into the California coast.

At the surface a strong cold front stretching from the Northern
Plains into the Texas Panhandle, is surging southward over western
and central Kansas.  Strong convergence from this front along with
ample boundary layer moisture and resultant instability, is
producing a band of thunderstorms over central Kansas.  Further,
well behind the front another area of light rain is moving slowly
east over western Kansas into eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

For the remainder of tonight into early this morning, the
aforementioned 700-500-hPa circulation will shift slowly east into
central Kansas. On the back side of this low a TROWAL axis and
resultant area of frontogenesis will permit the area of light rain
along the Colorado border, to follow the wave into central Kansas.
This will result in a few sprinkles although a few locations may measure
a few hundredths of an inch. In addition, the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight enough to bring gusty north to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph through early afternoon.

The pattern will then turn very quiet by late afternoon as the
aforementioned closed 700-500-hPa circulation, shifts east into the
mid Mississippi River valley.  Behind this wave strong subsidence
will spread across western and central Kansas with a resultant clear
sky prevailing this afternoon. This will permit deep thermal mixing
up to 700 hPa with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the
lower to mid 70s.

A benign evening to overnight will then dominate cross the Central
High Plains as surface high pressure ridges into Kansas.  This will
allow winds to ease quickly during the afternoon hours with light
winds and a clear sky bringing cool temperatures.  Temperatures will
bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging transitioning
eastward across the Western High Plains Friday and into the Central
Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low
pressure will begin to push ashore into southern California Saturday
setting up a southwest flow across the Western High Plains by
Saturday afternoon. As a lack of significant low/mid level moisture
prevails during this time frame, dry conditions will persist through
Saturday afternoon. The potential for thunderstorms returns Saturday
evening as the upper level trough begins to lift northeast out of
the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. As the shortwave
approaches, a prevailing low level southeasterly flow will continue
to draw moisture northward into Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline.
Although where the dryline sets up is uncertain this far out, the
likelihood for thunderstorm development is good ahead of it as upper
level dynamic support becomes more favorable. Severe weather is
possible late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precip potential
shifts north and east Sunday as the upper level trough lifts
northeast across the Western High Plains increasing the potential
for dryslotting across southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday as weak upper level ridging
moves eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains. A
south to southeasterly flow will return to western Kansas as lee
side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will draw
warmer air north into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from
around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C in far southwest
Kansas. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) Friday afternoon.
The warming trend continues into Saturday as enhanced warm air
advection raises H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest Kansas. Mid to upper 80s(F) are likely Saturday
afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible behind a dryline across
extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures will arrive
early next week as a cold front sweeps through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A strong cold front will continue surging southward over western
and central Kansas into the overnight hours. Behind this boundary
a band of thunderstorms will move through the HYS and DDC terminals
through the mid overnight hours. MVFR ceilings and wind gusts up
to 50-60 mph will be possible within these thunderstorms. Further,
strong north to northwest winds of 25-35 mph along with higher
gusts will also be possible behind the front through the remainder
of tonight. High pressure will then build into the region later
this afternoon with winds easing quickly while an unlimited
ceiling develops.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  45  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  70  43  84  50 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  46  85  52 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  72  44  86  53 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  70  43  81  51 /  20   0   0   0
P28  72  46  85  58 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJohnson
SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...AJohnson








000
FXUS63 KDDC 240545
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.

A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
surges south.

Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging transitioning
eastward across the Western High Plains Friday and into the Central
Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low
pressure will begin to push ashore into southern California Saturday
setting up a southwest flow across the Western High Plains by
Saturday afternoon. As a lack of significant low/mid level moisture
prevails during this time frame, dry conditions will persist through
Saturday afternoon. The potential for thunderstorms returns Saturday
evening as the upper level trough begins to lift northeast out of
the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. As the shortwave
approaches, a prevailing low level southeasterly flow will continue
to draw moisture northward into Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline.
Although where the dryline sets up is uncertain this far out, the
likelihood for thunderstorm development is good ahead of it as upper
level dynamic support becomes more favorable. Severe weather is
possible late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precip potential
shifts north and east Sunday as the upper level trough lifts
northeast across the Western High Plains increasing the potential
for dryslotting across southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday as weak upper level ridging
moves eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains. A
south to southeasterly flow will return to western Kansas as lee
side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will draw
warmer air north into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from
around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C in far southwest
Kansas. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) Friday afternoon.
The warming trend continues into Saturday as enhanced warm air
advection raises H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest Kansas. Mid to upper 80s(F) are likely Saturday
afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible behind a dryline across
extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures will arrive
early next week as a cold front sweeps through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A strong cold front will continue surging southward over western
and central Kansas into the overnight hours. Behind this boundary
a band of thunderstorms will move through the HYS and DDC terminals
through the mid overnight hours. MVFR ceilings and wind gusts up
to 50-60 mph will be possible within these thunderstorms. Further,
strong north to northwest winds of 25-35 mph along with higher
gusts will also be possible behind the front through the remainder
of tonight. High pressure will then build into the region later
this afternoon with winds easing quickly while an unlimited
ceiling develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  84  54  88 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  43  84  50  86 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  46  85  52  89 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  44  86  53  90 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  43  81  51  82 /   0   0   0  20
P28  46  85  58  90 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ early this morning FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...AJohnson









000
FXUS63 KDDC 232328 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.

A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
surges south.

Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging transitioning
eastward across the Western High Plains Friday and into the Central
Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low
pressure will begin to push ashore into southern California Saturday
setting up a southwest flow across the Western High Plains by
Saturday afternoon. As a lack of significant low/mid level moisture
prevails during this time frame, dry conditions will persist through
Saturday afternoon. The potential for thunderstorms returns Saturday
evening as the upper level trough begins to lift northeast out of
the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. As the shortwave
approaches, a prevailing low level southeasterly flow will continue
to draw moisture northward into Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline.
Although where the dryline sets up is uncertain this far out, the
likelihood for thunderstorm development is good ahead of it as upper
level dynamic support becomes more favorable. Severe weather is
possible late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precip potential
shifts north and east Sunday as the upper level trough lifts
northeast across the Western High Plains increasing the potential
for dryslotting across southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday as weak upper level ridging
moves eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains. A
south to southeasterly flow will return to western Kansas as lee
side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will draw
warmer air north into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from
around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C in far southwest
Kansas. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) Friday afternoon.
The warming trend continues into Saturday as enhanced warm air
advection raises H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest Kansas. Mid to upper 80s(F) are likely Saturday
afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible behind a dryline across
extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures will arrive
early next week as a cold front sweeps through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Scattered thunderstorms with small hail and winds to 40-50kt will
be mainly around the Dodge City area through 01-02Z. South winds of
25-35kt will shift to the northwest with a cold front around
03-04Z at 25-35kt. A few more thunderstorms are expected with the
cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  72  45  84 /  60   0   0   0
GCK  44  71  44  84 /  40  10   0   0
EHA  44  73  45  85 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  75  45  86 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  46  72  43  81 /  80  10   0   0
P28  53  75  46  85 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ Thursday FOR KSZ061-062-
074-075-084-085.

WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ043-044-063-076-086.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse








000
FXUS63 KDDC 231955
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.

A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
surges south.

Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging transitioning
eastward across the Western High Plains Friday and into the Central
Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low
pressure will begin to push ashore into southern California Saturday
setting up a southwest flow across the Western High Plains by
Saturday afternoon. As a lack of significant low/mid level moisture
prevails during this time frame, dry conditions will persist through
Saturday afternoon. The potential for thunderstorms returns Saturday
evening as the upper level trough begins to lift northeast out of
the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. As the shortwave
approaches, a prevailing low level southeasterly flow will continue
to draw moisture northward into Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline.
Although where the dryline sets up is uncertain this far out, the
likelihood for thunderstorm development is good ahead of it as upper
level dynamic support becomes more favorable. Severe weather is
possible late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precip potential
shifts north and east Sunday as the upper level trough lifts
northeast across the Western High Plains increasing the potential
for dryslotting across southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday as weak upper level ridging
moves eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains. A
south to southeasterly flow will return to western Kansas as lee
side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will draw
warmer air north into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from
around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C in far southwest
Kansas. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) Friday afternoon.
The warming trend continues into Saturday as enhanced warm air
advection raises H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest Kansas. Mid to upper 80s(F) are likely Saturday
afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible behind a dryline across
extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures will arrive
early next week as a cold front sweeps through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  72  45  84 /  60   0   0   0
GCK  44  71  44  84 /  40  10   0   0
EHA  44  73  45  85 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  75  45  86 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  46  72  43  81 /  80  10   0   0
P28  53  75  46  85 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 2 AM CDT
/1 AM MDT/ Thursday FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ043-044-063-076-086.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 231844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
144 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.

A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
surges south.

Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  72  45  82 /  60   0   0   0
GCK  44  73  44  82 /  50  10   0   0
EHA  44  71  45  83 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  74  45  84 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  46  73  43  79 /  80  10   0   0
P28  53  72  46  83 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-076>081-086>090.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert








000
FXUS63 KDDC 231706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

An upper level ridge was moving east over the Plains states while to
the west, a strong shortwave trough was moving through the
Intermountain west and southwest. This upper trough is progged by
the models to move out over the central and northern Plains tonight.
A strong surface pressure gradient had developed over the central
High Plains in advance of this system. Southerly low level winds
were advecting somewhat better low level moisture from the southern
Plains back into western Kansas. During the day today, a dryline
will tighten up across southwest Kansas. To the east of the dryline,
model soundings show strong southerly winds developing through the
mixed layer. It appears that sustained 25-35 mph winds will be
likely across central and parts of southwest Kansas by mid morning
and continuing into this afternoon. Have issued a wind advisory for
this which will be in effect from 10 am this morning until 8 pm this
evening.

The airmass ahead of the dryline will become increasingly unstable
with model MUCAPE values up to around 1500 J/KG. There will be
plenty of shear for rotating thunderstorms. CAPE and Shear
parameters are looking favorable for large hail up to golfball size
but with fairly high LCL`s it appears that the threat for tornadoes
will continue to be low. Thunderstorms should break out along the
dryline by around 3 or 4 pm and propagate eastward into central
Kansas this evening.

A strong cold front will push south across western Kansas this
evening. There could be a period of an hour or two of 25-35 mph
winds behind the front which could also produce some areas of
blowing dust over southwest Kansas this evening. Some showers and
thunderstorms could also develop along the front as it moves into
central Kansas into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Gusty winds and low relative humidity is expected to develop over
far southwest Kansas this afternoon behind a dryline that will move
out to along highway 25. A Red Flag warning is in effect for this
afternoon for the above mentioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  46  72  44 /  40  70   0  10
GCK  85  44  73  43 /  40  50  10  10
EHA  87  44  71  44 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  86  45  74  44 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  84  46  73  42 /  50  90  10   0
P28  84  53  72  45 /  30  70  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 231250
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
750 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

An upper level ridge was moving east over the Plains states while to
the west, a strong shortwave trough was moving through the
Intermountain west and southwest. This upper trough is progged by
the models to move out over the central and northern Plains tonight.
A strong surface pressure gradient had developed over the central
High Plains in advance of this system. Southerly low level winds
were advecting somewhat better low level moisture from the southern
Plains back into western Kansas. During the day today, a dryline
will tighten up across southwest Kansas. To the east of the dryline,
model soundings show strong southerly winds developing through the
mixed layer. It appears that sustained 25-35 mph winds will be
likely across central and parts of southwest Kansas by mid morning
and continuing into this afternoon. Have issued a wind advisory for
this which will be in effect from 10 am this morning until 8 pm this
evening.

The airmass ahead of the dryline will become increasingly unstable
with model MUCAPE values up to around 1500 J/KG. There will be
plenty of shear for rotating thunderstorms. CAPE and Shear
parameters are looking favorable for large hail up to golfball size
but with fairly high LCL`s it appears that the threat for tornadoes
will continue to be low. Thunderstorms should break out along the
dryline by around 3 or 4 pm and propagate eastward into central
Kansas this evening.

A strong cold front will push south across western Kansas this
evening. There could be a period of an hour or two of 25-35 mph
winds behind the front which could also produce some areas of
blowing dust over southwest Kansas this evening. Some showers and
thunderstorms could also develop along the front as it moves into
central Kansas into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


Steep mid level lapse rates and warm air advection are responsible
for scattered elevated showers this morning that may be in the
vicinity of DDC and HYS through late morning. Beyond that, a
dryline will move to near GCK by late afternoon, becoming the
focus for a few thunderstorms which may become severe. A more
focused convective thunderstorms line may affect HYS and DDC late
this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Gusty winds and low relative humidity is expected to develop over
far southwest Kansas this afternoon behind a dryline that will move
out to along highway 25. A Red Flag warning is in effect for this
afternoon for the above mentioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  46  72  44 /  50  70   0  10
GCK  85  44  73  43 /  40  50  10  10
EHA  87  44  71  44 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  86  45  74  44 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  84  46  73  42 /  60  90  10   0
P28  84  53  72  45 /  40  70  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 230912
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
412 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated short term and fire weather discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

An upper level ridge was moving east over the Plains states while to
the west, a strong shortwave trough was moving through the
Intermountain west and southwest. This upper trough is progged by
the models to move out over the central and northern Plains tonight.
A strong surface pressure gradient had developed over the central
High Plains in advance of this system. Southerly low level winds
were advecting somewhat better low level moisture from the southern
Plains back into western Kansas. During the day today, a dryline
will tighten up across southwest Kansas. To the east of the dryline,
model soundings show strong southerly winds developing through the
mixed layer. It appears that sustained 25-35 mph winds will be
likely across central and parts of southwest Kansas by mid morning
and continuing into this afternoon. Have issued a wind advisory for
this which will be in effect from 10 am this morning until 8 pm this
evening.

The airmass ahead of the dryline will become increasingly unstable
with model MUCAPE values up to around 1500 J/KG. There will be
plenty of shear for rotating thunderstorms. CAPE and Shear
parameters are looking favorable for large hail up to golfball size
but with fairly high LCL`s it appears that the threat for tornadoes
will continue to be low. Thunderstorms should break out along the
dryline by around 3 or 4 pm and propagate eastward into central
Kansas this evening.

A strong cold front will push south across western Kansas this
evening. There could be a period of an hour or two of 25-35 mph
winds behind the front which could also produce some areas of
blowing dust over southwest Kansas this evening. Some showers and
thunderstorms could also develop along the front as it moves into
central Kansas into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the first half of this TAF
period. Winds will be increasing to around 25-30 knots with gusts
to near 40s knots at times. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along a dryline by around 21-22z. Most of the storms
will be east of Garden City. Will carry VCTS at all the TAF sites
after 21z and will include a tempo group at Dodge City and Hays
for a few hours in the early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Gusty winds and low relative humidity is expected to develop over
far southwest Kansas this afternoon behind a dryline that will move
out to along highway 25. A Red Flag warning is in effect for this
afternoon for the above mentioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  46  72  44 /  50  70   0  10
GCK  85  44  73  43 /  40  50  10  10
EHA  87  44  71  44 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  86  45  74  44 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  83  46  73  42 /  60  90  10   0
P28  83  53  72  45 /  40  70  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ031-045-046-064>066-077>081-087>090.

RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 230846
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...updated long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains tonight giving way to a strengthening
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will
coincide with a strong upper level trough digging southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. As the next
upper level system approaches this evening, a series of H5 vort
maxes will begin to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western
Kansas. Although low level moisture is expected to remain marginal
at best, a southeasterly upslope flow combined with increased
convergence near the surface trough in eastern Colorado will lead
to thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado this evening.
A few isolated storms may drift into extreme western Kansas late
this evening then lift northeast overnight. Although severe
weather is not expected, small hail and gusty winds up to
55 mph will be possible.

For Wednesday, the approaching upper level trough will turn
eastward, moving out of the Rockies into and across the Western High
Plains bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas late in the afternoon. As the upper level
shortwave axis moves out of the Rockies, a developing dryline across
extreme eastern Colorado will sharpen as it shifts east into western
Kansas during the day. Ahead of the dryline, increasing moisture
and instability along with steepening low/mid level lapse rates
will set the stage for thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the dryline as it advances further east. Additionally, dynamics
aloft will become more favorable as a southwest-northeast oriented
upper level jet moves into western Kansas. Although a few storms
may become severe with CAPE values climbing in excess of 1000 J/KG,
NAM/GFS model soundings hint at a lower threat for tornadoes with
higher LCL`s generally above 7,000ft and a lack of favorable
directional shear.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight as a strengthening low
level flow across western Kansas enhances warm air advection into
the area. As surface dewpoints begin to slowly rise into the the
40s(F) overnight, look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across
central and southwest Kansas. For Wednesday, a prevailing southerly
flow will continue to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures upward of 20C across central Kansas to near 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. As mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
persist, widespread 80s(F) are expected Wednesday afternoon with
near 90F possible behind the dryline across extreme southwest
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the first half of this TAF
period. Winds will be increasing to around 25-30 knots with gusts
to near 40s knots at times. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along a dryline by around 21-22z. Most of the storms
will be east of Garden City. Will carry VCTS at all the TAF sites
after 21z and will include a tempo group at Dodge City and Hays
for a few hours in the early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  46  72  44 /  50  70   0  10
GCK  85  44  73  43 /  40  50  10  10
EHA  87  44  71  44 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  86  45  74  44 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  83  46  73  42 /  60  90  10   0
P28  83  53  72  45 /  40  70  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ031-045-046-064>066-077>081-087>090.

RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 230549
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains tonight giving way to a strengthening
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will
coincide with a strong upper level trough digging southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. As the next
upper level system approaches this evening, a series of H5 vort
maxes will begin to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western
Kansas. Although low level moisture is expected to remain marginal
at best, a southeasterly upslope flow combined with increased
convergence near the surface trough in eastern Colorado will lead
to thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado this evening.
A few isolated storms may drift into extreme western Kansas late
this evening then lift northeast overnight. Although severe
weather is not expected, small hail and gusty winds up to
55 mph will be possible.

For Wednesday, the approaching upper level trough will turn
eastward, moving out of the Rockies into and across the Western High
Plains bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas late in the afternoon. As the upper level
shortwave axis moves out of the Rockies, a developing dryline across
extreme eastern Colorado will sharpen as it shifts east into western
Kansas during the day. Ahead of the dryline, increasing moisture
and instability along with steepening low/mid level lapse rates
will set the stage for thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the dryline as it advances further east. Additionally, dynamics
aloft will become more favorable as a southwest-northeast oriented
upper level jet moves into western Kansas. Although a few storms
may become severe with CAPE values climbing in excess of 1000 J/KG,
NAM/GFS model soundings hint at a lower threat for tornadoes with
higher LCL`s generally above 7,000ft and a lack of favorable
directional shear.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight as a strengthening low
level flow across western Kansas enhances warm air advection into
the area. As surface dewpoints begin to slowly rise into the the
40s(F) overnight, look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across
central and southwest Kansas. For Wednesday, a prevailing southerly
flow will continue to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures upward of 20C across central Kansas to near 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. As mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
persist, widespread 80s(F) are expected Wednesday afternoon with
near 90F possible behind the dryline across extreme southwest
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Convection will increase along and south of a cold front early
Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance moves across the
Central High Plains. The cold front is forecast to move south
across western and central Kansas between 00z Thursday and 09z
Thursday and based on the location of where the low level thta-e
ridge axis will be early Wednesday night will stay close to the
previous forecast with increasing precipitation chances, mainly
east of highway 83. NAM and GFS precipitable water values Wednesday
night are expected to be around 1 inch so periods of moderate to
heavy rain will be possible with some of these storms overnight
across north central and south central Kansas.

Gusty northwest winds can be expected behind this cold front as
it crosses southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. The GFS
and NAM both indicated a tight surface pressure gradient along
with 30 to 40knots in the 925mb to 850mb level across much of
western Kansas. Wind speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range will be
likely for a couple of hours across portions of western Kansas
before these winds fall back into the 15 to 25 mph range. Based on
the cold air advection and decreasing clouds from northwest to
southeast late tonight will favor the cooler MAV guidance for
overnight lows.

An area of high pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas
on Thursday as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At this time will follow the
850mb temperature trends for highs Thursday afternoon which
continues to support temperatures warming mainly in the low to mid
70s. The warming trend will continue on Friday as an surface
trough of low pressure deepens across eastern Colorado and a mean
westerly downslope flow improves. Highs Friday afternoon are
expected to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Precipitation chances will improve over the weekend period as the
next upper level storm system moves east across the southwest
United States. As this next storm system moves out into the plains
early next week an upper low is forecast to develop. The GFS,
ECMWF and ensembles differ on this upper low development Sunday
and Monday but despite these differences both the GFS and ECMWF do
agree that a surface cold front will cross western Kansas late
Sunday. As a result will stay close to the previous forecast for
highs over the weekend period but will lean towards cooling
temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday given the cooling trend
advertised in the 925mb and 850mb levels by both the GFS and ECMWF
behind a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the first half of this TAF
period. Winds will be increasing to around 25-30 knots with gusts
to near 40s knots at times. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along a dryline by around 21-22z. Most of the storms
will be east of Garden City. Will carry VCTS at all the TAF sites
after 21z and will include a tempo group at Dodge City and Hays
for a few hours in the early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Relative humidity below 15 percent is likely across extreme
southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon as a dryline moves eastward
across the area during the day. The question will be whether winds
will be strong enough to promote critical fire weather conditions.
The NAM/GFS show H85 winds of around 25 to 30kt just ahead of the
surface trough axis during much of the afternoon hours. As the
dryline advances through extreme southwest Kansas, lower/mid level
lapse rates will steepen allowing the stronger winds to mix down
to the surface. As a result, critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop Wednesday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued this afternoon for the counties affected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  74  47  80 /  70   0  10   0
GCK  44  73  44  79 /  50   0  10   0
EHA  45  73  48  82 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  45  76  48  82 /  40   0   0  10
HYS  46  72  46  76 /  90  10   0   0
P28  53  77  49  81 /  70   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson








000
FXUS63 KDDC 222300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains tonight giving way to a strengthening
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will
coincide with a strong upper level trough digging southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. As the next
upper level system approaches this evening, a series of H5 vort
maxes will begin to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western
Kansas. Although low level moisture is expected to remain marginal
at best, a southeasterly upslope flow combined with increased
convergence near the surface trough in eastern Colorado will lead
to thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado this evening.
A few isolated storms may drift into extreme western Kansas late
this evening then lift northeast overnight. Although severe
weather is not expected, small hail and gusty winds up to
55 mph will be possible.

For Wednesday, the approaching upper level trough will turn
eastward, moving out of the Rockies into and across the Western High
Plains bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas late in the afternoon. As the upper level
shortwave axis moves out of the Rockies, a developing dryline across
extreme eastern Colorado will sharpen as it shifts east into western
Kansas during the day. Ahead of the dryline, increasing moisture
and instability along with steepening low/mid level lapse rates
will set the stage for thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the dryline as it advances further east. Additionally, dynamics
aloft will become more favorable as a southwest-northeast oriented
upper level jet moves into western Kansas. Although a few storms
may become severe with CAPE values climbing in excess of 1000 J/KG,
NAM/GFS model soundings hint at a lower threat for tornadoes with
higher LCL`s generally above 7,000ft and a lack of favorable
directional shear.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight as a strengthening low
level flow across western Kansas enhances warm air advection into
the area. As surface dewpoints begin to slowly rise into the the
40s(F) overnight, look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across
central and southwest Kansas. For Wednesday, a prevailing southerly
flow will continue to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures upward of 20C across central Kansas to near 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. As mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
persist, widespread 80s(F) are expected Wednesday afternoon with
near 90F possible behind the dryline across extreme southwest
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Convection will increase along and south of a cold front early
Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance moves across the
Central High Plains. The cold front is forecast to move south
across western and central Kansas between 00z Thursday and 09z
Thursday and based on the location of where the low level thta-e
ridge axis will be early Wednesday night will stay close to the
previous forecast with increasing precipitation chances, mainly
east of highway 83. NAM and GFS preciptable water values Wednesday
night are expected to be around 1 inch so periods of moderate to
heavy rain will be possible with some of these storms overnight
across north central and south central Kansas.

Gusty northwest winds can be expected behind this cold front as
it crosses southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. The GFS
and NAM both indicated a tight surface pressure gradient along
with 30 to 40knots in the 925mb to 850mb level across much of
western Kansas. Wind speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range will be
likely for a couple of hours across portions of western Kansas
before these winds fall back into the 15 to 25 mph range. Based on
the cold air advection and decreasing clouds from northwest to
southeast late tonight will favor the cooler MAV guidance for
overnight lows.

An area of high pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas
on Thursday as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At this time will follow the
850mb temperature trends for highs Thursday afternoon which
continues to support temperatures warming mainly in the low to mid
70s. The warming trend will continue on Friday as an surface
trough of low pressure deepens across eastern Colorado and a mean
westerly downslope flow improves. Highs Friday afternoon are
expected to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Precipitation chances will improve over the weekend period as the
next upper level storm system moves east across the southwest
United States. As this next storm system moves out into the plains
early next week an upper low is forecast to develop. The GFS,
ECMWF and ensembles differ on this upper low development Sunday
and Monday but despite these differences both the GFS and ECMWF do
agree that a surface cold front will cross western Kansas late
Sunday. As a result will stay close to the previous forecast for
highs over the weekend period but will lean towards cooling
temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday given the cooling trend
advertised in the 925mb and 850mb levels by both the GFS and ECMWF
behind a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

In the immediate critical TAF pd, watching some showers and tstorms
across the CO/KS border. This could impact KGCK but confidence is pretty
low on the activity sustaining itself to create a reduction in flight
category. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through much of TAF pd.
Sct tstorms tomorrow but will leave out for now due to uncertainty in
placement and timing. Southerly winds 18-25 kt will become S/SSW 25-30
kt by morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Relative humidity below 15 percent is likely across extreme
southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon as a dryline moves eastward
across the area during the day. The question will be whether winds
will be strong enough to promote critical fire weather conditions.
The NAM/GFS show H85 winds of around 25 to 30kt just ahead of the
surface trough axis during much of the afternoon hours. As the
dryline advances through extreme southwest Kansas, lower/mid level
lapse rates will steepen allowing the stronger winds to mix down
to the surface. As a result, critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop Wednesday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued this afternoon for the counties affected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  83  46  74 /  10  50  70   0
GCK  55  85  44  73 /  20  40  50   0
EHA  58  87  45  73 /  20  20  20   0
LBL  57  86  45  76 /  10  30  40   0
HYS  53  83  46  72 /  20  60  90  10
P28  53  83  53  77 /  10  40  70   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ074-075-
084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson








000
FXUS63 KDDC 222010
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...UPDATE TO FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains tonight giving way to a strengthening
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will
coincide with a strong upper level trough digging southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. As the next
upper level system approaches this evening, a series of H5 vort
maxes will begin to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western
Kansas. Although low level moisture is expected to remain marginal
at best, a southeasterly upslope flow combined with increased
convergence near the surface trough in eastern Colorado will lead
to thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado this evening.
A few isolated storms may drift into extreme western Kansas late
this evening then lift northeast overnight. Although severe
weather is not expected, small hail and gusty winds up to
55 mph will be possible.

For Wednesday, the approaching upper level trough will turn
eastward, moving out of the Rockies into and across the Western High
Plains bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas late in the afternoon. As the upper level
shortwave axis moves out of the Rockies, a developing dryline across
extreme eastern Colorado will sharpen as it shifts east into western
Kansas during the day. Ahead of the dryline, increasing moisture
and instability along with steepening low/mid level lapse rates
will set the stage for thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the dryline as it advances further east. Additionally, dynamics
aloft will become more favorable as a southwest-northeast oriented
upper level jet moves into western Kansas. Although a few storms
may become severe with CAPE values climbing in excess of 1000 J/KG,
NAM/GFS model soundings hint at a lower threat for tornadoes with
higher LCL`s generally above 7,000ft and a lack of favorable
directional shear.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight as a strengthening low
level flow across western Kansas enhances warm air advection into
the area. As surface dewpoints begin to slowly rise into the the
40s(F) overnight, look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across
central and southwest Kansas. For Wednesday, a prevailing southerly
flow will continue to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures upward of 20C across central Kansas to near 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. As mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
persist, widespread 80s(F) are expected Wednesday afternoon with
near 90F possible behind the dryline across extreme southwest
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Convection will increase along and south of a cold front early
Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance moves across the
Central High Plains. The cold front is forecast to move south
across western and central Kansas between 00z Thursday and 09z
Thursday and based on the location of where the low level thta-e
ridge axis will be early Wednesday night will stay close to the
previous forecast with increasing precipitation chances, mainly
east of highway 83. NAM and GFS preciptable water values Wednesday
night are expected to be around 1 inch so periods of moderate to
heavy rain will be possible with some of these storms overnight
across north central and south central Kansas.

Gusty northwest winds can be expected behind this cold front as
it crosses southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. The GFS
and NAM both indicated a tight surface pressure gradient along
with 30 to 40knots in the 925mb to 850mb level across much of
western Kansas. Wind speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range will be
likely for a couple of hours across portions of western Kansas
before these winds fall back into the 15 to 25 mph range. Based on
the cold air advection and decreasing clouds from northwest to
southeast late tonight will favor the cooler MAV guidance for
overnight lows.

An area of high pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas
on Thursday as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At this time will follow the
850mb temperature trends for highs Thursday afternoon which
continues to support temperatures warming mainly in the low to mid
70s. The warming trend will continue on Friday as an surface
trough of low pressure deepens across eastern Colorado and a mean
westerly downslope flow improves. Highs Friday afternoon are
expected to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Precipitation chances will improve over the weekend period as the
next upper level storm system moves east across the southwest
United States. As this next storm system moves out into the plains
early next week an upper low is forecast to develop. The GFS,
ECMWF and ensembles differ on this upper low development Sunday
and Monday but despite these differences both the GFS and ECMWF do
agree that a surface cold front will cross western Kansas late
Sunday. As a result will stay close to the previous forecast for
highs over the weekend period but will lean towards cooling
temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday given the cooling trend
advertised in the 925mb and 850mb levels by both the GFS and ECMWF
behind a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Southerly winds of 15 to 20kt will continue to
slowly increase to around 25 to 30kt this afternoon as a lee side
trough strengthens across eastern Colorado. Winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating, then increase
again above 20kt Wednesday as the strong lee side trough remains
anchored to the west.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Relative humidity below 15 percent is likely across extreme
southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon as a dryline moves eastward
across the area during the day. The question will be whether winds
will be strong enough to promote critical fire weather conditions.
The NAM/GFS show H85 winds of around 25 to 30kt just ahead of the
surface trough axis during much of the afternoon hours. As the
dryline advances through extreme southwest Kansas, lower/mid level
lapse rates will steepen allowing the stronger winds to mix down
to the surface. As a result, critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop Wednesday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued this afternoon for the counties affected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  83  46  74 /  10  50  70   0
GCK  55  85  44  73 /  20  40  50   0
EHA  58  87  45  73 /  20  20  20   0
LBL  57  86  45  76 /  10  30  40   0
HYS  53  83  46  72 /  20  60  90  10
P28  53  83  53  77 /  10  40  70   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ074-075-
084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson








000
FXUS63 KDDC 221946
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains tonight giving way to a strengthening
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will
coincide with a strong upper level trough digging southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. As the next
upper level system approaches this evening, a series of H5 vort
maxes will begin to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western
Kansas. Although low level moisture is expected to remain marginal
at best, a southeasterly upslope flow combined with increased
convergence near the surface trough in eastern Colorado will lead
to thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado this evening.
A few isolated storms may drift into extreme western Kansas late
this evening then lift northeast overnight. Although severe
weather is not expected, small hail and gusty winds up to
55 mph will be possible.

For Wednesday, the approaching upper level trough will turn
eastward, moving out of the Rockies into and across the Western High
Plains bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas late in the afternoon. As the upper level
shortwave axis moves out of the Rockies, a developing dryline across
extreme eastern Colorado will sharpen as it shifts east into western
Kansas during the day. Ahead of the dryline, increasing moisture
and instability along with steepening low/mid level lapse rates
will set the stage for thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the dryline as it advances further east. Additionally, dynamics
aloft will become more favorable as a southwest-northeast oriented
upper level jet moves into western Kansas. Although a few storms
may become severe with CAPE values climbing in excess of 1000 J/KG,
NAM/GFS model soundings hint at a lower threat for tornadoes with
higher LCL`s generally above 7,000ft and a lack of favorable
directional shear.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight as a strengthening low
level flow across western Kansas enhances warm air advection into
the area. As surface dewpoints begin to slowly rise into the the
40s(F) overnight, look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across
central and southwest Kansas. For Wednesday, a prevailing southerly
flow will continue to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures upward of 20C across central Kansas to near 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. As mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
persist, widespread 80s(F) are expected Wednesday afternoon with
near 90F possible behind the dryline across extreme southwest
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Convection will increase along and south of a cold front early
Wednesday night as an upper level disturbance moves across the
Central High Plains. The cold front is forecast to move south
across western and central Kansas between 00z Thursday and 09z
Thursday and based on the location of where the low level thta-e
ridge axis will be early Wednesday night will stay close to the
previous forecast with increasing precipitation chances, mainly
east of highway 83. NAM and GFS preciptable water values Wednesday
night are expected to be around 1 inch so periods of moderate to
heavy rain will be possible with some of these storms overnight
across north central and south central Kansas.

Gusty northwest winds can be expected behind this cold front as
it crosses southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. The GFS
and NAM both indicated a tight surface pressure gradient along
with 30 to 40knots in the 925mb to 850mb level across much of
western Kansas. Wind speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range will be
likely for a couple of hours across portions of western Kansas
before these winds fall back into the 15 to 25 mph range. Based on
the cold air advection and decreasing clouds from northwest to
southeast late tonight will favor the cooler MAV guidance for
overnight lows.

An area of high pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas
on Thursday as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At this time will follow the
850mb temperature trends for highs Thursday afternoon which
continues to support temperatures warming mainly in the low to mid
70s. The warming trend will continue on Friday as an surface
trough of low pressure deepens across eastern Colorado and a mean
westerly downslope flow improves. Highs Friday afternoon are
expected to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Precipitation chances will improve over the weekend period as the
next upper level storm system moves east across the southwest
United States. As this next storm system moves out into the plains
early next week an upper low is forecast to develop. The GFS,
ECMWF and ensembles differ on this upper low development Sunday
and Monday but despite these differences both the GFS and ECMWF do
agree that a surface cold front will cross western Kansas late
Sunday. As a result will stay close to the previous forecast for
highs over the weekend period but will lean towards cooling
temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday given the cooling trend
advertised in the 925mb and 850mb levels by both the GFS and ECMWF
behind a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Southerly winds of 15 to 20kt will continue to
slowly increase to around 25 to 30kt this afternoon as a lee side
trough strengthens across eastern Colorado. Winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating, then increase
again above 20kt Wednesday as the strong lee side trough remains
anchored to the west.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  83  47  73 /  10  50  70   0
GCK  55  85  43  72 /  20  40  50   0
EHA  58  87  43  72 /  20  20  20   0
LBL  57  86  47  73 /  10  30  30   0
HYS  53  83  45  71 /  20  60  70  10
P28  53  83  50  75 /  10  40  40   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson








000
FXUS63 KDDC 221902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
202 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains tonight giving way to a strengthening
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will
coincide with a strong upper level trough digging southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. As the next
upper level system approaches this evening, a series of H5 vort
maxes will begin to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western
Kansas. Although low level moisture is expected to remain marginal
at best, a southeasterly upslope flow combined with increased
convergence near the surface trough in eastern Colorado will lead
to thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado this evening.
A few isolated storms may drift into extreme western Kansas late
this evening then lift northeast overnight. Although severe
weather is not expected, small hail and gusty winds up to
55 mph will be possible.

For Wednesday, the approaching upper level trough will turn
eastward, moving out of the Rockies into and across the Western High
Plains bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas late in the afternoon. As the upper level
shortwave axis moves out of the Rockies, a developing dryline across
extreme eastern Colorado will sharpen as it shifts east into western
Kansas during the day. Ahead of the dryline, increasing moisture
and instability along with steepening low/mid level lapse rates
will set the stage for thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the dryline as it advances further east. Additionally, dynamics
aloft will become more favorable as a southwest-northeast oriented
upper level jet moves into western Kansas. Although a few storms
may become severe with CAPE values climbing in excess of 1000 J/KG,
NAM/GFS model soundings hint at a lower threat for tornadoes with
higher LCL`s generally above 7,000ft and a lack of favorable
directional shear.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight as a strengthening low
level flow across western Kansas enhances warm air advection into
the area. As surface dewpoints begin to slowly rise into the the
40s(F) overnight, look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across
central and southwest Kansas. For Wednesday, a prevailing southerly
flow will continue to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures upward of 20C across central Kansas to near 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. As mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
persist, widespread 80s(F) are expected Wednesday afternoon with
near 90F possible behind the dryline across extreme southwest
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Little overall change was seen in the overall forecast expectation
for days 2 and 3, or Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF and the NAM
continue to show the moistening of the lower levels through moisture
transport on southerly winds in advance of a surface dryline on
Wednesday and large scale lift Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The
pattern is still supportive of severe storms given the deep layer
shear and instability expected to be present with the greatest
threat during the late afternoon and evening across the warm sector
(most likely from around Garden City/highway 83, eastward into
central Kansas. Convection could linger into the evening and
overnight from around Hays to Stafford and Medicine Lodge, as the
cold front becomes a secondary focus for storms. Subsidence should
become well established by early Thursday resulting in cooler
afternoon high temperatures. Thursday into Friday will bring a
slowly amplifying upper ridge across the central High Plains with
surface features resulting in breezy northwest winds Thursday to
light and more variable by Friday. Difluent flow aloft returns by
the weekend as the next significant wave digs into the southern
Rockies by Saturday. Periods of showers or thunderstorms could occur
(or complete dry slotting) anytime during the weekend with large
uncertainty in timing or coverage with such a pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Southerly winds of 15 to 20kt will continue to
slowly increase to around 25 to 30kt this afternoon as a lee side
trough strengthens across eastern Colorado. Winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating, then increase
again above 20kt Wednesday as the strong lee side trough remains
anchored to the west.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  83  46  74 /  10  50  70   0
GCK  55  85  44  73 /  20  40  50   0
EHA  58  87  44  73 /  20  20  20   0
LBL  57  86  45  76 /  10  30  40   0
HYS  53  83  45  72 /  20  60  90  10
P28  53  83  52  77 /  10  40  70   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson








000
FXUS63 KDDC 221702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level ridge of high pressure moving eastward out of the Colorado
Rockies into the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper
level trough of low pressure is digging southeast across the
Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is strengthening across extreme eastern Colorado. Drier
air remains in place across central and southwest Kansas with
surface dewpoints primarily in the 30s(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Through today, the upper level ridge will continue to move east out
over the Plains states while a strong shortwave trough moves into
the Intermountain west. The surface ridge will move east as well.
Warm air advection will increase in the low to mid levels over the
central High Plains today, along with some increasing low level
moisture. The far southwest portion of Kansas will see the warmest
afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s while in central Kansas
around Hays, temperatures should manage to climb into the mid to
upper 70s. As surface pressure falls occur int he lee of the Rockies
today, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop across
western Kansas with breezy to windy conditions developing.

The models continue to indicate thunderstorms developing over eastern
Colorado this afternoon. As warm air advection continues to strengthen
in the lower levels, widely scattered elevated storms should continue
to build eastward into western Kansas especially as a low level jet
strengthens overnight. Will continue to show an eastward progression
of the best thunderstorm chances overnight as the low level jet veers
to the northeast overnight. Have brought thunderstorm chances a little
bit farther south than previously indicated. Overnight lows will be
mild...staying in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Little overall change was seen in the overall forecast expectation
for days 2 and 3, or Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF and the NAM
continue to show the moistening of the lower levels through moisture
transport on southerly winds in advance of a surface dryline on
Wednesday and large scale lift Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The
pattern is still supportive of severe storms given the deep layer
shear and instability expected to be present with the greatest
threat during the late afternoon and evening across the warm sector
(most likely from around Garden City/highway 83, eastward into
central Kansas. Convection could linger into the evening and
overnight from around Hays to Stafford and Medicine Lodge, as the
cold front becomes a secondary focus for storms. Subsidence should
become well established by early Thursday resulting in cooler
afternoon high temperatures. Thursday into Friday will bring a
slowly amplifying upper ridge across the central High Plains with
surface features resulting in breezy northwest winds Thursday to
light and more variable by Friday. Difluent flow aloft returns by
the weekend as the next significant wave digs into the southern
Rockies by Saturday. Periods of showers or thunderstorms could occur
(or complete dry slotting) anytime during the weekend with large
uncertainty in timing or coverage with such a pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Southerly winds of 15 to 20kt will continue to
slowly increase to around 25 to 30kt this afternoon as a lee side
trough strengthens across eastern Colorado. Winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating, then increase
again above 20kt Wednesday as the strong lee side trough remains
anchored to the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A fire weather watch was issued for Stanton, Grant, Morton and
Ulysses counties for Wednesday afternoon. This region may have the
best opportunity to remain behind the dryline and ahead of the cold
front/convection long enough for several hours of 30 mph average
winds and relative humidities in the low teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  53  83  46 /   0  10  50  70
GCK  81  55  85  44 /  10  20  40  50
EHA  83  58  87  44 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  83  57  86  45 /   0  10  30  40
HYS  77  53  83  45 /   0  20  60  90
P28  80  53  83  52 /   0  10  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 221535
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1035 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level ridge of high pressure moving eastward out of the Colorado
Rockies into the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper
level trough of low pressure is digging southeast across the
Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is strengthening across extreme eastern Colorado. Drier
air remains in place across central and southwest Kansas with
surface dewpoints primarily in the 30s(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Through today, the upper level ridge will continue to move east out
over the Plains states while a strong shortwave trough moves into
the Intermountain west. The surface ridge will move east as well.
Warm air advection will increase in the low to mid levels over the
central High Plains today, along with some increasing low level
moisture. The far southwest portion of Kansas will see the warmest
afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s while in central Kansas
around Hays, temperatures should manage to climb into the mid to
upper 70s. As surface pressure falls occur int he lee of the Rockies
today, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop across
western Kansas with breezy to windy conditions developing.

The models continue to indicate thunderstorms developing over eastern
Colorado this afternoon. As warm air advection continues to strengthen
in the lower levels, widely scattered elevated storms should continue
to build eastward into western Kansas especially as a low level jet
strengthens overnight. Will continue to show an eastward progression
of the best thunderstorm chances overnight as the low level jet veers
to the northeast overnight. Have brought thunderstorm chances a little
bit farther south than previously indicated. Overnight lows will be
mild...staying in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Little overall change was seen in the overall forecast expectation
for days 2 and 3, or Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF and the NAM
continue to show the moistening of the lower levels through moisture
transport on southerly winds in advance of a surface dryline on
Wednesday and large scale lift Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The
pattern is still supportive of severe storms given the deep layer
shear and instability expected to be present with the greatest
threat during the late afternoon and evening across the warm sector
(most likely from around Garden City/highway 83, eastward into
central Kansas. Convection could linger into the evening and
overnight from around Hays to Stafford and Medicine Lodge, as the
cold front becomes a secondary focus for storms. Subsidence should
become well established by early Thursday resulting in cooler
afternoon high temperatures. Thursday into Friday will bring a
slowly amplifying upper ridge across the central High Plains with
surface features resulting in breezy northwest winds Thursday to
light and more variable by Friday. Difluent flow aloft returns by
the weekend as the next significant wave digs into the southern
Rockies by Saturday. Periods of showers or thunderstorms could occur
(or complete dry slotting) anytime during the weekend with large
uncertainty in timing or coverage with such a pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight category is expected for this TAF period as surface
high pressure fades eastward of the region. The increasing surface
pressure gradient will bring southerly surface winds around 20 mph
with gusts to around 30 mph at area terminals this afternoon
through the overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A fire weather watch was issued for Stanton, Grant, Morton and
Ulysses counties for Wednesday afternoon. This region may have the
best opportunity to remain behind the dryline and ahead of the cold
front/convection long enough for several hours of 30 mph average
winds and relative humidities in the low teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  55  83  46 /   0  10  50  70
GCK  81  56  84  44 /  10  20  40  50
EHA  83  57  84  44 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  83  57  85  45 /   0  10  30  40
HYS  77  55  82  45 /   0  20  60  90
P28  80  55  83  52 /   0  10  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 221140
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Through today, the upper level ridge will continue to move east out
over the Plains states while a strong shortwave trough moves into
the Intermountain west. The surface ridge will move east as well.
Warm air advection will increase in the low to mid levels over the
central High Plains today, along with some increasing low level
moisture. The far southwest portion of Kansas will see the warmest
afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s while in central Kansas
around Hays, temperatures should manage to climb into the mid to
upper 70s. As surface pressure falls occur int he lee of the Rockies
today, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop across
western Kansas with breezy to windy conditions developing.

The models continue to indicate thunderstorms developing over eastern
Colorado this afternoon. As warm air advection continues to strengthen
in the lower levels, widely scattered elevated storms should continue
to build eastward into western Kansas especially as a low level jet
strengthens overnight. Will continue to show an eastward progression
of the best thunderstorm chances overnight as the low level jet veers
to the northeast overnight. Have brought thunderstorm chances a little
bit farther south than previously indicated. Overnight lows will be
mild...staying in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Little overall change was seen in the overall forecast expectation
for days 2 and 3, or Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF and the NAM
continue to show the moistening of the lower levels through moisture
transport on southerly winds in advance of a surface dryline on
Wednesday and large scale lift Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The
pattern is still supportive of severe storms given the deep layer
shear and instability expected to be present with the greatest
threat during the late afternoon and evening across the warm sector
(most likely from around Garden City/highway 83, eastward into
central Kansas. Convection could linger into the evening and
overnight from around Hays to Stafford and Medicine Lodge, as the
cold front becomes a secondary focus for storms. Subsidence should
become well established by early Thursday resulting in cooler
afternoon high temperatures. Thursday into Friday will bring a
slowly amplifying upper ridge across the central High Plains with
surface features resulting in breezy northwest winds Thursday to
light and more variable by Friday. Difluent flow aloft returns by
the weekend as the next significant wave digs into the southern
Rockies by Saturday. Periods of showers or thunderstorms could occur
(or complete dry slotting) anytime during the weekend with large
uncertainty in timing or coverage with such a pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight category is expected for this TAF period as surface
high pressure fades eastward of the region. The increasing surface
pressure gradient will bring southerly surface winds around 20 mph
with gusts to around 30 mph at area terminals this afternoon
through the overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A fire weather watch was issued for Stanton, Grant, Morton and
Ulysses counties for Wednesday afternoon. This region may have the
best opportunity to remain behind the dryline and ahead of the cold
front/convection long enough for several hours of 30 mph average
winds and relative humidities in the low teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  55  83  47 /   0  10  40  70
GCK  81  56  84  43 /  10  20  50  50
EHA  83  56  84  43 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  83  57  85  47 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  77  55  82  45 /   0  20  50  70
P28  80  54  83  50 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 220858
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Through today, the upper level ridge will continue to move east out
over the Plains states while a strong shortwave trough moves into
the Intermountain west. The surface ridge will move east as well.
Warm air advection will increase in the low to mid levels over the
central High Plains today, along with some increasing low level
moisture. The far southwest portion of Kansas will see the warmest
afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s while in central Kansas
around Hays, temperatures should manage to climb into the mid to
upper 70s. As surface pressure falls occur int he lee of the Rockies
today, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop across
western Kansas with breezy to windy conditions developing.

The models continue to indicate thunderstorms developing over eastern
Colorado this afternoon. As warm air advection continues to strengthen
in the lower levels, widely scattered elevated storms should continue
to build eastward into western Kansas especially as a low level jet
strengthens overnight. Will continue to show an eastward progression
of the best thunderstorm chances overnight as the low level jet veers
to the northeast overnight. Have brought thunderstorm chances a little
bit farther south than previously indicated. Overnight lows will be
mild...staying in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Little overall change was seen in the overall forecast expectation
for days 2 and 3, or Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF and the NAM
continue to show the moistening of the lower levels through moisture
transport on southerly winds in advance of a surface dryline on
Wednesday and large scale lift Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The
pattern is still supportive of severe storms given the deep layer
shear and instability expected to be present with the greatest
threat during the late afternoon and evening across the warm sector
(most likely from around Garden City/highway 83, eastward into
central Kansas. Convection could linger into the evening and
overnight from around Hays to Stafford and Medicine Lodge, as the
cold front becomes a secondary focus for storms. Subsidence should
become well established by early Thursday resulting in cooler
afternoon high temperatures. Thursday into Friday will bring a
slowly amplifying upper ridge across the central High Plains with
surface features resulting in breezy northwest winds Thursday to
light and more variable by Friday. Difluent flow aloft returns by
the weekend as the next significant wave digs into the southern
Rockies by Saturday. Periods of showers or thunderstorms could occur
(or complete dry slotting) anytime during the weekend with large
uncertainty in timing or coverage with such a pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Surface high pressure centered over the northern and central Plains
tonight will move into the Mississippi valley by Tuesday evening.
At the same time, surface pressure in the lee of the Rockies will
fall sharply during the day. The increasing surface pressure gradient
across western Kansas will bring gusty south winds. Look for light and
variable winds through the early morning hours to increase from the
south by late morning with wind gusts of 25-35 knots likely by Tuesday
afternoon. VFR skies and visibilities will prevail through the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A fire weather watch was issued for Stanton, Grant, Morton and
Ulysses counties for Wednesday afternoon. This region may have the
best opportunity to remain behind the dryline and ahead of the cold
front/convection long enough for several hours of 30 mph average
winds and relative humidities in the low teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  55  83  47 /   0  10  40  70
GCK  81  56  84  43 /  10  20  50  50
EHA  83  56  84  43 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  83  57  85  47 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  77  55  82  45 /   0  20  50  70
P28  80  54  83  50 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Russell








000
FXUS63 KDDC 220814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed shortwave troughs moving into the
Great Lakes region and the Deep South. West of these features, a
shortwave ridge extended from Alberta, Canada into the Four Corners
region. In the lower levels, high pressure was centered over the
central High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Through today, the upper level ridge will continue to move east out
over the Plains states while a strong shortwave trough moves into
the Intermountain west. The surface ridge will move east as well.
Warm air advection will increase in the low to mid levels over the
central High Plains today, along with some increasing low level
moisture. The far southwest portion of Kansas will see the warmest
afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s while in central Kansas
around Hays, temperatures should manage to climb into the mid to
upper 70s. As surface pressure falls occur int he lee of the Rockies
today, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop across
western Kansas with breezy to windy conditions developing.

The models continue to indicate thunderstorms developing over eastern
Colorado this afternoon. As warm air advection continues to strengthen
in the lower levels, widely scattered elevated storms should continue
to build eastward into western Kansas especially as a low level jet
strengthens overnight. Will continue to show an eastward progression
of the best thunderstorm chances overnight as the low level jet veers
to the northeast overnight. Have brought thunderstorm chances a little
bit farther south than previously indicated. Overnight lows will be
mild...staying in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Surface pressures will continue to fall along the lee of the
Rockies Tuesday night as an upper level trough approaches the
central Rockies from the west. Warm air advection develops along
the nose of a low level jet near the eastern edge of an elevated
warm layer after 03z. Based on cooler mid level temperatures, warm
air advection and improving moisture around the 850mb level some
overnight thunderstorms still can not be ruled out near and north
of a Garden City to Rush Center line. Will therefore keep a 20
percent chance of convection Tuesday night in this location.

A dryline will cross portions of far western Kansas on Wednesday.
As the dryline shifts east, a cold front will drop south out of
Nebraska into northwest Kansas. Behind this dryline dewpoints are
expected to fall back into the upper 20s/lower 30s which will
result in relative humidities bottoming out around 15 percent by
late day across portions of far western Kansas. At this time
confidence is not high on how far east the dryline will be late
day, however based on the latest model trends it currently appears
that by late day this boundary will be located west of Dodge City.
Given the movement expected from this dryline Wednesday afternoon
and timing of when the lower dewpoints will begin to spread into
portions of far western Kansas it currently appears that relative
humidities will only briefly drop as low as 15 percent for a few
of the far western counties near the Colorado border. At this time
red flag warning criteria will not be reached for 3 hours so will
therefore not be issuing a red flag warning or watch this
afternoon.

East of the dryline Wednesday afternoon 0-6km shear will be
improving to 40kts or greater by 00z Thursday and CAPE values
greater than 1500 j/kg will be possible which continues to support
the chance for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon/early
Wednesday night. Surface dewpoints are expected to range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s by late day and model soundings suggested
that the cloud bases will be at or above the 700mb level. At this
time large hail and strong winds appears to be the main hazard
from any storm which does develop late day.

Thunderstorms will be likely through at least the first half of
Wednesday night as convection developing along the cold front
surges south/southeast across western and central Kansas. Based on
the low level moisture axis Wednesday night the area more
favorable for overnight convection will be east of highway 283. A
tight surface pressure gradient along with 925mb-850mb winds
behind this front/convection Wednesday night supports gusty north
winds at 25 to near 35 mph for several hours behind this front.

On Thursday a northwest flow aloft along with subsidence will
develop behind the upper level trough as it moves out of Kansas
and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface a surface
ridge axis will cross western Kansas during the day, and a trough
of low pressure will begin to develop along the lee of the
Rockies. This trough of low pressure will continue to deepen
Thursday night and Friday as an eastern Pacific upper level storm
system moves east into the southwest United States. GFS, ECMWF, and
ensembles today all differing on track and strength of this next
system from Thursday night through Saturday night as it approaches
the central and southern Rockies. As a result confidence is not
high on timing of the weekend frontal passage or precipitation
chances over the weekend period. All the models do support
improving chances for another round of precipitation for most of
western Kansas sometime this weekend. Based on this will stay
close to the latest CRExtendFcst_Init which currently supports
this improving precipitation chances over the weekend period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Surface high pressure centered over the northern and central Plains
tonight will move into the Mississippi valley by Tuesday evening.
At the same time, surface pressure in the lee of the Rockies will
fall sharply during the day. The increasing surface pressure gradient
across western Kansas will bring gusty south winds. Look for light and
variable winds through the early morning hours to increase from the
south by late morning with wind gusts of 25-35 knots likely by Tuesday
afternoon. VFR skies and visibilities will prevail through the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  55  83  47 /   0  10  40  70
GCK  82  56  84  43 /  10  10  50  50
EHA  83  56  84  43 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  83  57  85  47 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  77  55  82  45 /  10  20  50  70
P28  78  54  83  50 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Gerard








000
FXUS63 KDDC 220500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Short range models indicate upper level ridging pushing eastward out
of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains tonight and
spreading across the remainder of Kansas Tuesday. However, a weaker
flow aloft and a lack of needed low/mid level moisture will result
in dry conditions across western Kansas through late Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight as
marginally cooler air filters southwestward into western Kansas.
Expect lows mainly down into the 40s(F), especially with surface
dewpoints only falling into the lower 40s(F) and 30s(F). For
Tuesday, southerly winds will develop across western Kansas as
surface high pressure moves further east into eastern Kansas. This
will begin to draw much warmer air northward into the area with H85
temperatures ranging from around 15C across central Kansas to a
little above 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. Under mostly sunny
skies, look for highs well up into the 70s(F) across central
Kansas with lower to mid 80s(F) likely in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Surface pressures will continue to fall along the lee of the
Rockies Tuesday night as an upper level trough approaches the
central Rockies from the west. Warm air advection develops along
the nose of a low level jet near the eastern edge of an elevated
warm layer after 03z. Based on cooler mid level temperatures, warm
air advection and improving moisture around the 850mb level some
overnight thunderstorms still can not be ruled out near and north
of a Garden City to Rush Center line. Will therefore keep a 20
percent chance of convection Tuesday night in this location.

A dryline will cross portions of far western Kansas on Wednesday.
As the dryline shifts east, a cold front will drop south out of
Nebraska into northwest Kansas. Behind this dryline dewpoints are
expected to fall back into the upper 20s/lower 30s which will
result in relative humidities bottoming out around 15 percent by
late day across portions of far western Kansas. At this time
confidence is not high on how far east the dryline will be late
day, however based on the latest model trends it currently appears
that by late day this boundary will be located west of Dodge City.
Given the movement expected from this dryline Wednesday afternoon
and timing of when the lower dewpoints will begin to spread into
portions of far western Kansas it currently appears that relative
humidities will only briefly drop as low as 15 percent for a few
of the far western counties near the Colorado border. At this time
red flag warning criteria will not be reached for 3 hours so will
therefore not be issuing a red flag warning or watch this
afternoon.

East of the dryline Wednesday afternoon 0-6km shear will be
improving to 40kts or greater by 00z Thursday and CAPE values
greater than 1500 j/kg will be possible which continues to support
the chance for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon/early
Wednesday night. Surface dewpoints are expected to range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s by late day and model soundings suggested
that the cloud bases will be at or above the 700mb level. At this
time large hail and strong winds appears to be the main hazard
from any storm which does develop late day.

Thunderstorms will be likely through at least the first half of
Wednesday night as convection developing along the cold front
surges south/southeast across western and central Kansas. Based on
the low level moisture axis Wednesday night the area more
favorable for overnight convection will be east of highway 283. A
tight surface pressure gradient along with 925mb-850mb winds
behind this front/convection Wednesday night supports gusty north
winds at 25 to near 35 mph for several hours behind this front.

On Thursday a northwest flow aloft along with subsidence will
develop behind the upper level trough as it moves out of Kansas
and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface a surface
ridge axis will cross western Kansas during the day, and a trough
of low pressure will begin to develop along the lee of the
Rockies. This trough of low pressure will continue to deepen
Thursday night and Friday as an eastern Pacific upper level storm
system moves east into the southwest United States. GFS, ECMWF, and
ensembles today all differing on track and strength of this next
system from Thursday night through Saturday night as it approaches
the central and southern Rockies. As a result confidence is not
high on timing of the weekend frontal passage or precipitation
chances over the weekend period. All the models do support
improving chances for another round of precipitation for most of
western Kansas sometime this weekend. Based on this will stay
close to the latest CRExtendFcst_Init which currently supports
this improving precipitation chances over the weekend period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Surface high pressure centered over the northern and central Plains
tonight will move into the Mississippi valley by Tuesday evening.
At the same time, surface pressure in the lee of the Rockies will
fall sharply during the day. The increasing surface pressure gradient
across western Kansas will bring gusty south winds. Look for light and
variable winds through the early morning hours to increase from the
south by late morning with wind gusts of 25-35 knots likely by Tuesday
afternoon. VFR skies and visibilities will prevail through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A dryline will cross far western Kansas on Wednesday. As this
dryline passes the dewpoints will fall back into the upper 20s to
lower 30s and gusty southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will develop.
As temperatures warm into the lower 80s Wednesday afternoon the
relative humidity will bottom out in the 15 to 20 percent range
during the late afternoon across portions of far western Kansas.
This will result in elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Currently Red Flag Warning conditions are not
anticipated, however outdoor burning is not recommended west
Wednesday afternoon along and west of a Lakin to Hugoton line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  80  56  82 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  45  82  57  83 /   0  10  10  50
EHA  50  83  57  82 /   0  10  10  20
LBL  48  83  58  83 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  43  77  56  81 /   0  10  20  50
P28  47  78  54  82 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert









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