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000
FXUS63 KDDC 302316
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SLOW
TO TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF RUNS MAINTAIN OUR AREA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL MID EVENING SATURDAY
WHEN HE FRONT IS ABLE TO BE FORCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. EVENT HE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL AIR
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL COLD ENOUGH  ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION HAS
BASICALLY CEASED.

THE COLDEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS SHOULD THEN BE NOTICED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRIER AIR AND
GOOD LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS IS
POSSIBLE. THE MOS OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE
THE COLDEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
NOT FAR FROM THESE COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL, WHICH WAS USED AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG WARMING TREND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NOTICED HEADING INTO MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY 03-06Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND LIGHT RAIN AND VSBYS FROM 2-4SM. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO
MIX IN LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09-12Z AS LOW
LEVELS SATURATE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT.
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  31  36 /  80  60  60  10
GCK  34  46  31  37 /  70  50  50   0
EHA  33  44  33  40 /  80  50  50   0
LBL  34  44  34  41 /  80  60  60  10
HYS  33  42  26  29 /  80  50  60   0
P28  36  42  34  38 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 302316
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SLOW
TO TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF RUNS MAINTAIN OUR AREA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL MID EVENING SATURDAY
WHEN HE FRONT IS ABLE TO BE FORCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. EVENT HE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL AIR
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL COLD ENOUGH  ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION HAS
BASICALLY CEASED.

THE COLDEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS SHOULD THEN BE NOTICED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRIER AIR AND
GOOD LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS IS
POSSIBLE. THE MOS OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE
THE COLDEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
NOT FAR FROM THESE COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL, WHICH WAS USED AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG WARMING TREND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NOTICED HEADING INTO MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY 03-06Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND LIGHT RAIN AND VSBYS FROM 2-4SM. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO
MIX IN LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09-12Z AS LOW
LEVELS SATURATE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT.
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  31  36 /  80  60  60  10
GCK  34  46  31  37 /  70  50  50   0
EHA  33  44  33  40 /  80  50  50   0
LBL  34  44  34  41 /  80  60  60  10
HYS  33  42  26  29 /  80  50  60   0
P28  36  42  34  38 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 302108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SLOW
TO TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF RUNS MAINTAIN OUR AREA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL MID EVENING SATURDAY
WHEN HE FRONT IS ABLE TO BE FORCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. EVENT HE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL AIR
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL COLD ENOUGH  ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION HAS
BASICALLY CEASED.

THE COLDEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS SHOULD THEN BE NOTICED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRIER AIR AND
GOOD LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS IS
POSSIBLE. THE MOS OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE
THE COLDEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
NOT FAR FROM THESE COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL, WHICH WAS USED AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG WARMING TREND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NOTICED HEADING INTO MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  33  36 /  80  60  60  10
GCK  34  46  33  37 /  70  50  50   0
EHA  33  44  35  40 /  80  50  50   0
LBL  34  44  37  41 /  80  60  60  10
HYS  33  42  28  29 /  80  50  60   0
P28  36  42  38  38 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 302108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SLOW
TO TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF RUNS MAINTAIN OUR AREA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL MID EVENING SATURDAY
WHEN HE FRONT IS ABLE TO BE FORCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. EVENT HE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL AIR
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL COLD ENOUGH  ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION HAS
BASICALLY CEASED.

THE COLDEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS SHOULD THEN BE NOTICED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRIER AIR AND
GOOD LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS IS
POSSIBLE. THE MOS OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE
THE COLDEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
NOT FAR FROM THESE COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL, WHICH WAS USED AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG WARMING TREND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NOTICED HEADING INTO MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  33  36 /  80  60  60  10
GCK  34  46  33  37 /  70  50  50   0
EHA  33  44  35  40 /  80  50  50   0
LBL  34  44  37  41 /  80  60  60  10
HYS  33  42  28  29 /  80  50  60   0
P28  36  42  38  38 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  33  35 /  80  60  60  10
GCK  34  46  34  35 /  70  50  50   0
EHA  33  44  34  37 /  60  50  50   0
LBL  34  44  36  37 /  80  60  60  10
HYS  33  42  28  32 /  80  50  60   0
P28  36  42  38  38 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301722
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1122 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT 12Z FRIDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. JUST EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A
250MB JET STREAK STRETCHED FROM NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET WAS APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AT THE 700MB WAS DRAWING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO SOUNDINGS AT 12Z FRIDAY
INDICATED A DECENT DRY LAYER WAS LOCATED IN 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
BELOW THIS AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  33  44  33 /  20  80  60  60
GCK  46  33  43  34 /  30  70  50  50
EHA  46  32  45  34 /  40  60  50  50
LBL  46  33  46  36 /  30  80  60  60
HYS  47  32  42  28 /  20  80  60  60
P28  47  34  44  38 /  10  70  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301722
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1122 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT 12Z FRIDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. JUST EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A
250MB JET STREAK STRETCHED FROM NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET WAS APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AT THE 700MB WAS DRAWING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO SOUNDINGS AT 12Z FRIDAY
INDICATED A DECENT DRY LAYER WAS LOCATED IN 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
BELOW THIS AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  33  44  33 /  20  80  60  60
GCK  46  33  43  34 /  30  70  50  50
EHA  46  32  45  34 /  40  60  50  50
LBL  46  33  46  36 /  30  80  60  60
HYS  47  32  42  28 /  20  80  60  60
P28  47  34  44  38 /  10  70  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 301143
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

OVERALL, YOU CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL START OUT THIS MORNING, THEN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING, SOME RAIN AND SNOW WILL START
FORMING, FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS IN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
FALL TO MVFR AT FIRST, AND TREND DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  33  44  28 /  30  70  50  60
GCK  47  33  43  27 /  40  60  40  50
EHA  44  32  45  29 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  46  33  46  29 /  50  70  50  60
HYS  48  32  42  25 /  40  80  60  60
P28  48  34  44  30 /  20  60  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300928
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

12/TIM BURKE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  33  44  28 /  30  70  50  60
GCK  47  33  43  27 /  40  60  40  50
EHA  44  32  45  29 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  46  33  46  29 /  50  70  50  60
HYS  48  32  42  25 /  40  80  60  60
P28  48  34  44  30 /  20  60  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300928
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

12/TIM BURKE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  33  44  28 /  30  70  50  60
GCK  47  33  43  27 /  40  60  40  50
EHA  44  32  45  29 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  46  33  46  29 /  50  70  50  60
HYS  48  32  42  25 /  40  80  60  60
P28  48  34  44  30 /  20  60  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300842
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING
FROM THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6
HOURLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME
DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR
SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW
EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST
THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUNTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  33  44  28 /  30  70  50  60
GCK  47  33  43  27 /  40  60  40  50
EHA  44  32  45  29 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  46  33  46  29 /  50  70  50  60
HYS  48  32  42  25 /  40  80  60  60
P28  48  34  44  30 /  20  60  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300842
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING
FROM THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6
HOURLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME
DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR
SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW
EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST
THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUNTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  33  44  28 /  30  70  50  60
GCK  47  33  43  27 /  40  60  40  50
EHA  44  32  45  29 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  46  33  46  29 /  50  70  50  60
HYS  48  32  42  25 /  40  80  60  60
P28  48  34  44  30 /  20  60  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300550
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1150 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING
FROM THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6
HOURLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME
DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR
SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW
EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST
THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUNTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  47  33  44 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  24  47  33  43 /   0  20  60  60
EHA  30  43  33  45 /   0  40  60  60
LBL  28  46  33  46 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  21  49  33  42 /   0  10  70  70
P28  23  47  34  44 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 300550
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1150 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING
FROM THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6
HOURLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME
DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR
SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW
EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST
THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUNTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  47  33  44 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  24  47  33  43 /   0  20  60  60
EHA  30  43  33  45 /   0  40  60  60
LBL  28  46  33  46 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  21  49  33  42 /   0  10  70  70
P28  23  47  34  44 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
517 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING
FROM THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6
HOURLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME
DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR
SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW
EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST
THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUNTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 09-12Z. ALSO
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS, WITH
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  47  33  44 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  24  47  33  43 /   0  20  60  60
EHA  30  43  33  45 /   0  40  60  60
LBL  28  46  33  46 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  21  49  33  42 /   0  10  70  70
P28  23  47  34  44 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 292152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS  OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING FROM
THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6 HOURLY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB
OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  47  33  44 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  24  47  33  43 /   0  20  60  60
EHA  30  43  33  45 /   0  40  60  60
LBL  28  46  33  46 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  21  49  33  42 /   0  10  70  70
P28  23  47  34  44 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 292152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS  OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING FROM
THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6 HOURLY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB
OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  47  33  44 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  24  47  33  43 /   0  20  60  60
EHA  30  43  33  45 /   0  40  60  60
LBL  28  46  33  46 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  21  49  33  42 /   0  10  70  70
P28  23  47  34  44 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS  OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING FROM
THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6 HOURLY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB
OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  47  33  44 /   0  10  70  70
GCK  24  47  33  43 /   0  20  60  60
EHA  30  43  33  45 /   0  40  60  60
LBL  28  46  33  46 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  21  49  33  42 /   0  10  70  70
P28  23  47  34  44 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291935
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  46  33  39 /   0  10  70  60
GCK  23  46  33  40 /   0  10  60  60
EHA  29  43  33  40 /   0  20  60  60
LBL  26  45  33  41 /   0  20  70  60
HYS  19  48  33  40 /   0  10  70  60
P28  21  46  34  41 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291935
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. BASED ON CLEAR SKIES, DEWPOINTS
AROUND 20 AND THESE LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF DODGE
CITY WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF LOWS GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DOGE CITY LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM
AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK KEEPING THE COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE ELKHART
AND LIBERAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DAY. BASED ON WHERE THE
IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY AND HOW QUICKLY A DRY
LAYER BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL SATURATES WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
20Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  46  33  39 /   0  10  70  60
GCK  23  46  33  40 /   0  10  60  60
EHA  29  43  33  40 /   0  20  60  60
LBL  26  45  33  41 /   0  20  70  60
HYS  19  48  33  40 /   0  10  70  60
P28  21  46  34  41 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 12Z THURSDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AT THE 850MB LEVEL A BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. NORMAN HAD A 850MB TEMPERATURE OF +14C, DOGE
CITY REPORTED +5, AND NORTH PLATTE AND TOPEKA AT 12Z THURSDAY
REPORTED -5C. 850MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WERE
BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KNOTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM AN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO EASTERN WYOMING.
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLIER THIS MORNING A 500MB
RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO IDAHO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0   0  60
EHA  50  32  44  33 /   0   0   0  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0   0  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 12Z THURSDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AT THE 850MB LEVEL A BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. NORMAN HAD A 850MB TEMPERATURE OF +14C, DOGE
CITY REPORTED +5, AND NORTH PLATTE AND TOPEKA AT 12Z THURSDAY
REPORTED -5C. 850MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WERE
BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KNOTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM AN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO EASTERN WYOMING.
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLIER THIS MORNING A 500MB
RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO IDAHO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0   0  60
EHA  50  32  44  33 /   0   0   0  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0   0  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291133
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
533 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT 16G25KT.
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM BY TODAY. AROUND 21-22Z,
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TO 01011KT, AND ANY CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0   0  60
EHA  49  32  44  33 /   0   0   0  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0   0  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 291133
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
533 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT 16G25KT.
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM BY TODAY. AROUND 21-22Z,
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TO 01011KT, AND ANY CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0   0  60
EHA  49  32  44  33 /   0   0   0  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0   0  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290843
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0  20  60
EHA  49  32  44  33 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0  40  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290843
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0  20  60
EHA  49  32  44  33 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0  40  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290644
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0  20  60
EHA  49  32  44  33 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0  40  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 290644
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0  20  60
EHA  49  32  44  33 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0  40  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  50
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  50
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 282308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 25KT WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  50
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 282308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 25KT WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  50
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 282011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE
RAP AND NAM BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER
AIR CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 282011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE
RAP AND NAM BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER
AIR CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 281955
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
155 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE
RAP AND NAM BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER
AIR CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 281955
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
155 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE
RAP AND NAM BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER
AIR CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 12Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WYOMING TO
EASTERN UTAH. FURTHER EAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN TEXAS TO MINNESOTA. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AN 850MB TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS LOCATED FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE
RAP AND NAM BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER
AIR CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  36  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  70  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  35  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  35  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  35  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  39  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 12Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WYOMING TO
EASTERN UTAH. FURTHER EAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN TEXAS TO MINNESOTA. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AN 850MB TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS LOCATED FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE
RAP AND NAM BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER
AIR CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  36  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  70  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  35  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  35  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  35  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  39  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 281155
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 281155
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 280950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 280910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH, COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S, WILL PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH, COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S, WILL PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 280910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH, COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S, WILL PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 280910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOONS GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND
SUNSET BUT LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH, COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S, WILL PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  37  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  36  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  36  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  36  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280535
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 12Z TUESDAY, MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BETWEEN 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BASED
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COOLING FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS IN THE 900MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY THE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70 TO NEAR 75.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  68  38  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  67  36  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  71  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  66  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  72  41  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD





000
FXUS63 KDDC 280535
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 12Z TUESDAY, MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BETWEEN 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BASED
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COOLING FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS IN THE 900MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY THE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70 TO NEAR 75.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF SITES
FROM AROUND 13Z-15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  68  38  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  67  36  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  71  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  66  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  72  41  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD




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