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000
FXUS63 KDDC 141807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough
digging southeast across the high plains of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas tonight. However, much drier air in the lower/mid
levels combined with a relatively weaker flow aloft will hinder
precip chances across the region overnight. Still, enough upper
level moisture will be associated with this system to support
increased cloud cover. As for temperatures tonight. A prevailing
westerly downslope flow near the surface combined with the
increased cloud cover will help warm the lower levels. Therefore,
look for low temperatures generally down into the 30s(F) tonight
with a few upper 20s(F) still possible across west central Kansas.
Warmer high temperatures can be expected Monday as well as the
general westerly downslope flow persists. Highs will climb well
into the 50s(F) across central Kansas Monday afternoon with the
lower to mid 60s(F) possible in southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Monday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across
southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface high
pressure moves southeast across the Western High Plains into
western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  32  63  37 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  57  32  63  35 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  59  32  67  37 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  58  32  67  35 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  54  32  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  59  35  63  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson





000
FXUS63 KDDC 141715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough sliding
southeast across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper
level shortwave is moving southeast out of the Northern Rockies
of western Montana. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure
is moving slowly southeast across eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Monday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across
southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface high
pressure moves southeast across the Western High Plains into
western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  32  61  37 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  57  31  63  35 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  59  33  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  58  32  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  54  32  57  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  59  34  64  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KDDC 141715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough sliding
southeast across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper
level shortwave is moving southeast out of the Northern Rockies
of western Montana. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure
is moving slowly southeast across eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Monday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across
southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface high
pressure moves southeast across the Western High Plains into
western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  32  61  37 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  57  31  63  35 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  59  33  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  58  32  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  54  32  57  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  59  34  64  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson





000
FXUS63 KDDC 141715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough sliding
southeast across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper
level shortwave is moving southeast out of the Northern Rockies
of western Montana. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure
is moving slowly southeast across eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Monday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across
southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface high
pressure moves southeast across the Western High Plains into
western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  32  61  37 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  57  31  63  35 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  59  33  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  58  32  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  54  32  57  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  59  34  64  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson





000
FXUS63 KDDC 141513
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
913 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough sliding
southeast across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper
level shortwave is moving southeast out of the Northern Rockies
of western Montana. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure
is moving slowly southeast across eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Winds will be northwesterly at around 10 knots this morning but will
become light and variable as the day progresses. A weak upper disturbance
moving over the region tonight could bring a few sprinkles or flurries
but cigs should remain VFR. By very late in the period, winds will become
northwesterly again and could increase into the 10-15 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  32  61  37 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  57  31  63  35 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  58  33  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  58  32  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  53  32  57  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  59  34  64  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard





000
FXUS63 KDDC 141130
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Winds will be northwesterly at around 10 knots this morning but will
become light and variable as the day progresses. A weak upper disturbance
moving over the region tonight could bring a few sprinkles or flurries
but cigs should remain VFR. By very late in the period, winds will become
northwesterly again and could increase into the 10-15 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  32  61  37 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  57  31  63  35 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  58  33  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  32  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  53  32  57  36 /  10  10   0  10
P28  59  34  64  38 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard





000
FXUS63 KDDC 140916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
316 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of this TAF
period. A cold front moving through the area will create
moderately gusty northwest winds through the morning hours that
will weaken to light westerly with the loss of the stronger
gradient later in the morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  31  62  36 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  57  30  64  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  58  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  31  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  58  33  64  39 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 140756
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of this TAF
period. A cold front moving thorugh the area will create
moderately gusty northwest winds through the morning hours that
will weaken to light westerly with the loss of the stronger
gradient later in the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  31  62  36 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  57  30  64  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  58  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  31  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  58  33  64  39 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 140756
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of this TAF
period. A cold front moving thorugh the area will create
moderately gusty northwest winds through the morning hours that
will weaken to light westerly with the loss of the stronger
gradient later in the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  31  62  36 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  57  30  64  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  58  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  31  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  58  33  64  39 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 140756
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of this TAF
period. A cold front moving thorugh the area will create
moderately gusty northwest winds through the morning hours that
will weaken to light westerly with the loss of the stronger
gradient later in the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  31  62  36 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  57  30  64  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  58  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  31  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  58  33  64  39 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 132300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR through Sunday. Variable amounts of mid/high clouds. Surface
trough passage overnight will bring shift SE winds at 00z to
NW by 09z Sun. Some NW wind gusts of 20-23 kts expected. Surface
winds will veer to northerly around 18z Sun, before weakening to
light and variable late Sunday afternoon. With the NW wind shift,
all stratus expected to remain well east of the terminals through
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  31  62 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  30  57  30  64 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  35  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  58  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  52  31  58 /   0  10  10   0
P28  32  58  33  64 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 132300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR through Sunday. Variable amounts of mid/high clouds. Surface
trough passage overnight will bring shift SE winds at 00z to
NW by 09z Sun. Some NW wind gusts of 20-23 kts expected. Surface
winds will veer to northerly around 18z Sun, before weakening to
light and variable late Sunday afternoon. With the NW wind shift,
all stratus expected to remain well east of the terminals through
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  31  62 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  30  57  30  64 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  35  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  58  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  52  31  58 /   0  10  10   0
P28  32  58  33  64 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner




000
FXUS63 KDDC 132300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR through Sunday. Variable amounts of mid/high clouds. Surface
trough passage overnight will bring shift SE winds at 00z to
NW by 09z Sun. Some NW wind gusts of 20-23 kts expected. Surface
winds will veer to northerly around 18z Sun, before weakening to
light and variable late Sunday afternoon. With the NW wind shift,
all stratus expected to remain well east of the terminals through
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  31  62 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  30  57  30  64 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  35  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  58  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  52  31  58 /   0  10  10   0
P28  32  58  33  64 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner





000
FXUS63 KDDC 131917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
117 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KGCK through early this
afternoon as a stratus deck slowly erodes away. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist
through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside below
20kt this evening with the loss of daytime heating then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early Sunday morning as a weak cold front
moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  31  62 /   0  10  80   0
GCK  30  57  30  64 /   0  10  80   0
EHA  35  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  58  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  52  31  58 /   0  10  80   0
P28  32  58  33  64 /   0  10  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson





000
FXUS63 KDDC 131807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KGCK through early this
afternoon as a stratus deck slowly erodes away. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist
through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside below
20kt this evening with the loss of daytime heating then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early Sunday morning as a weak cold front
moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  31  62 /   0  10  80   0
GCK  30  57  30  64 /   0  10  80   0
EHA  35  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  58  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  52  31  58 /   0  10  80   0
P28  32  58  33  64 /   0  10  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson





000
FXUS63 KDDC 131715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave
trough is moving eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KGCK through early this
afternoon as a stratus deck slowly erodes away. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist
through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside below
20kt this evening with the loss of daytime heating then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early Sunday morning as a weak cold front
moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  30  56  31 /   0   0  10  80
GCK  52  30  57  30 /   0   0  10  80
EHA  68  35  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  27  52  31 /  10   0  10  80
P28  44  32  58  33 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KDDC 131715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave
trough is moving eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KGCK through early this
afternoon as a stratus deck slowly erodes away. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist
through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside below
20kt this evening with the loss of daytime heating then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early Sunday morning as a weak cold front
moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  30  56  31 /   0   0  10  80
GCK  52  30  57  30 /   0   0  10  80
EHA  68  35  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  27  52  31 /  10   0  10  80
P28  44  32  58  33 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson





000
FXUS63 KDDC 131715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave
trough is moving eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KGCK through early this
afternoon as a stratus deck slowly erodes away. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist
through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside below
20kt this evening with the loss of daytime heating then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early Sunday morning as a weak cold front
moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  30  56  31 /   0   0  10  80
GCK  52  30  57  30 /   0   0  10  80
EHA  68  35  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  27  52  31 /  10   0  10  80
P28  44  32  58  33 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson





000
FXUS63 KDDC 131602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1002 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave
trough is moving eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR to IFR stratus will impact the Garden City and possibly the
Dodge City terminals this morning. VFR cigs could develop at Hays.
Look for all the lower cigs to diminish by around or after 18z.
Light southeasterly winds will increase from the south and become
gusty to 25 knots. The winds are expected to decrease with the
loss of daytime heating. Low stratus could redevelop late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  30  56  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  52  29  57  30 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  68  36  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  27  51  31 /  10   0  10  10
P28  44  31  58  33 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard





000
FXUS63 KDDC 131142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR to IFR stratus will impact the Garden City and possibly the
Dodge City terminals this morning. VFR cigs could develop at Hays.
Look for all the lower cigs to diminish by around or after 18z.
Light southeasterly winds will increase from the south and become
gusty to 25 knots. The winds are expected to decrease with the
loss of daytime heating. Low stratus could redevelop late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  29  57  30 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  67  36  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  58  32  58  30 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  38  27  51  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  31  58  33 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard





000
FXUS63 KDDC 131142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR to IFR stratus will impact the Garden City and possibly the
Dodge City terminals this morning. VFR cigs could develop at Hays.
Look for all the lower cigs to diminish by around or after 18z.
Light southeasterly winds will increase from the south and become
gusty to 25 knots. The winds are expected to decrease with the
loss of daytime heating. Low stratus could redevelop late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  29  57  30 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  67  36  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  58  32  58  30 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  38  27  51  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  31  58  33 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard




000
FXUS63 KDDC 131005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models
have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe rotating
through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which will
improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very early
Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will see
rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in a
warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

The HRRR model develops/spreads near IFR stratus farther south
across the area over the next few hours and maintains it through
the mid to late moring hours. Freezing fog is not a given at any
of the terminals this morning, as the HRRR indicates the best
signal on the higher terrain in northeast CO, however we will
monitor trend going foreward incase it develops farther east.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  29  57  30 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  36  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  57  32  58  30 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  36  27  51  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  31  58  33 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 130626
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

The HRRR model develops/spreads near IFR stratus farther south
across the area over the next few hours and maintains it through
the mid to late moring hours. Freezing fog is not a given at any
of the terminals this morning, as the HRRR indicates the best
signal on the higher terrain in northeast CO, however we will
monitor trend going foreward incase it develops farther east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  32 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  52  30  57  31 /  10   0  10  20
EHA  64  37  58  33 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  57  32  58  32 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  36  27  52  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  32  58  33 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 130626
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

The HRRR model develops/spreads near IFR stratus farther south
across the area over the next few hours and maintains it through
the mid to late moring hours. Freezing fog is not a given at any
of the terminals this morning, as the HRRR indicates the best
signal on the higher terrain in northeast CO, however we will
monitor trend going foreward incase it develops farther east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  32 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  52  30  57  31 /  10   0  10  20
EHA  64  37  58  33 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  57  32  58  32 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  36  27  52  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  32  58  33 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 130626
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

The HRRR model develops/spreads near IFR stratus farther south
across the area over the next few hours and maintains it through
the mid to late moring hours. Freezing fog is not a given at any
of the terminals this morning, as the HRRR indicates the best
signal on the higher terrain in northeast CO, however we will
monitor trend going foreward incase it develops farther east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  32 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  52  30  57  31 /  10   0  10  20
EHA  64  37  58  33 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  57  32  58  32 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  36  27  52  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  32  58  33 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 122303
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...updated aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Somewhat a messy aviation period. KDDC will start VFR tonight but may
end up seeing low end VFR (sct050) by midnight or later. Some mid level
clouds will linger through the rest of the TAF period. For KGCK, MVFR
cigs expected by 06Z and continuing through mid morning. Also put a
PROB30 in from 09-12Z for freezing drizzle. Cigs may lower even to IFR
in association with this. For KHYS, MVFR to IFR cigs will prevail through
much of the TAF pd. Winds will be NE then switch S/SE and increase 15-25
kt tomorrow around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  10  10   0  10
P28  21  43  32  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KDDC 122303
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...updated aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Somewhat a messy aviation period. KDDC will start VFR tonight but may
end up seeing low end VFR (sct050) by midnight or later. Some mid level
clouds will linger through the rest of the TAF period. For KGCK, MVFR
cigs expected by 06Z and continuing through mid morning. Also put a
PROB30 in from 09-12Z for freezing drizzle. Cigs may lower even to IFR
in association with this. For KHYS, MVFR to IFR cigs will prevail through
much of the TAF pd. Winds will be NE then switch S/SE and increase 15-25
kt tomorrow around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  10  10   0  10
P28  21  43  32  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 122303
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...updated aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Somewhat a messy aviation period. KDDC will start VFR tonight but may
end up seeing low end VFR (sct050) by midnight or later. Some mid level
clouds will linger through the rest of the TAF period. For KGCK, MVFR
cigs expected by 06Z and continuing through mid morning. Also put a
PROB30 in from 09-12Z for freezing drizzle. Cigs may lower even to IFR
in association with this. For KHYS, MVFR to IFR cigs will prevail through
much of the TAF pd. Winds will be NE then switch S/SE and increase 15-25
kt tomorrow around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  10  10   0  10
P28  21  43  32  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 122014
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
214 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  20  20   0  10
P28  21  43  32  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 122014
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
214 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  20  20   0  10
P28  21  43  32  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 122014
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
214 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The upper level ridge in mentioned in the short term gets pushed
south Friday night into the weekend as a shortwave moves into the
Intermountain West Saturday then Northern Plains Saturday night
into Sunday. Cloudiness will increase in coverage as this system
moves into the Plains Saturday night with decreasing cloudiness on
Sunday. No precipitation is expected with this system due to lake
of moisture. This system will also help push a cold front through
the area shifting winds to more of a northerly direction. A second
shortwave is progged to move through the area Sunday night into
Monday once again increasing cloud cover across western Kansas.
There may be enough low to mid level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain or snow Sunday night but most likely we will stay dry.
An upper level ridge builds into the western Untied States early
into the mid part of next week. This will allow warmer
temperatures to build back into the area but with the sacrifice of
no measurable precipitation expected. Models then suggest another
system moving into the area late next week but that being so far
out it is hard to tell the exact track. As for temperatures, highs
in the 50s are expected Sunday, then reaching to around 60 degrees
Monday. Lows Saturday night will start out around 30 degrees, with
lower 30s Sunday night and mid 30s Monday night. A warming trend
continues through the week with highs starting out Tuesday ranging
from upper 50s north to mid 60s south ending Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to around 80 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Lows during this time frame start out in the
mid 50s Tuesday night ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  20  20   0  10
P28  21  43  32  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 121846
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated synopsis and short term sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  59 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  20  20   0  10
P28  21  43  32  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 121846
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated synopsis and short term sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  59 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  20  20   0  10
P28  21  43  32  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 121846
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated synopsis and short term sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  59 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  20  20   0  10
P28  21  43  32  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 121742
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The forecast challenge in the short term continues to be the
immediate cooling trend and more cloudy conditions that are likely
by later in the day, followed by a northern plains wave later
tonight. Weak westerly winds in the far west will help maintain
warmer temperatures again today in the 50s, while incoming stratus
may have the potential to keep temperatures just above freezing in
central Kansas (Hays-Rush Center).

Increasingly upslope surface flow supporting freezing fog
or even patchy to areas of freezing drizzle mainly in the northwest
far sections after midnight. The precipitation (QPF) signal in the
NAM is mainly only focused across northwest/west central Kansas and
the cross sections indicate a dry layer just above the thicker
stratus.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  45  30 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  52  23  51  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  60  30  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  27  56  32 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  38  19  37  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  42  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 121200
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The forecast challenge in the short term continues to be the
immediate cooling trend and more cloudy conditions that are likely
by later in the day, followed by a northern plains wave later
tonight. Weak westerly winds in the far west will help maintain
warmer temperatures again today in the 50s, while incoming stratus
may have the potential to keep temperatures just above freezing in
central Kansas (Hays-Rush Center).

Increasingly upslope surface flow supporting freezing fog
or even patchy to areas of freezing drizzle mainly in the northwest
far sections after midnight. The precipitation (QPF) signal in the
NAM is mainly only focused across northwest/west central Kansas and
the cross sections indicate a dry layer just above the thicker
stratus.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

North winds early this morning will become northeast as the day
progresses, and eventually become east to southeast by this evening.
MVFR stratus is expected to move into the Hays area this morning
but is expected to become VFR this afternoon. MVFR to possibly IFR
stratus along with IFR vsby are expected to redevelop later tonight
around Hays as mist and patchy freezing drizzle develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  45  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  51  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  59  30  63  37 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  56  32 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  37  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  42  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Gerard





000
FXUS63 KDDC 121200
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The forecast challenge in the short term continues to be the
immediate cooling trend and more cloudy conditions that are likely
by later in the day, followed by a northern plains wave later
tonight. Weak westerly winds in the far west will help maintain
warmer temperatures again today in the 50s, while incoming stratus
may have the potential to keep temperatures just above freezing in
central Kansas (Hays-Rush Center).

Increasingly upslope surface flow supporting freezing fog
or even patchy to areas of freezing drizzle mainly in the northwest
far sections after midnight. The precipitation (QPF) signal in the
NAM is mainly only focused across northwest/west central Kansas and
the cross sections indicate a dry layer just above the thicker
stratus.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

North winds early this morning will become northeast as the day
progresses, and eventually become east to southeast by this evening.
MVFR stratus is expected to move into the Hays area this morning
but is expected to become VFR this afternoon. MVFR to possibly IFR
stratus along with IFR vsby are expected to redevelop later tonight
around Hays as mist and patchy freezing drizzle develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  45  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  51  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  59  30  63  37 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  56  32 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  37  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  42  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Gerard





000
FXUS63 KDDC 120847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
247 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The forecast challenge in the short term continues to be the
immediate cooling trend and more cloudy conditions that are likely
by later in the day, followed by a northern plains wave later
tonight. Weak westerly winds in the far west will help maintain
warmer temperatures again today in the 50s, while incoming stratus
may have the potential to keep temperatures just above freezing in
central Kansas (Hays-Rush Center).

Increasingly upslope surface flow supporting freezing fog
or even patchy to areas of freezing drizzle mainly in the northwest
far sections after midnight. The precipitation (QPF) signal in the
NAM is mainly only focused across northwest/west central Kansas and
the cross sections indicate a dry layer just above the thicker
stratus.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The prevailing condition through about 12 hours will remain VFR
across the local terminals before an increasing chance for IFR
category stratus becomes a potential impact. The 12km NAM indicates
upslope stratus developing extending far enough west Friday evening
to impact even DDC and GCK into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  45  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  51  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  59  30  63  37 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  56  32 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  37  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  42  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR





000
FXUS63 KDDC 120609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The prevailing condition through about 12 hours will remain VFR
across the local terminals before an increasing chance for IFR
category stratus becomes a potential impact. The 12km NAM indicates
upslope stratus developing extending far enough west Friday evening
to impact even DDC and GCK into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  41  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  46  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  56  30  58  36 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  50  33 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  36  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  39  30 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 120609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The prevailing condition through about 12 hours will remain VFR
across the local terminals before an increasing chance for IFR
category stratus becomes a potential impact. The 12km NAM indicates
upslope stratus developing extending far enough west Friday evening
to impact even DDC and GCK into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  41  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  46  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  56  30  58  36 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  50  33 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  36  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  39  30 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 120609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The prevailing condition through about 12 hours will remain VFR
across the local terminals before an increasing chance for IFR
category stratus becomes a potential impact. The 12km NAM indicates
upslope stratus developing extending far enough west Friday evening
to impact even DDC and GCK into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  41  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  46  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  56  30  58  36 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  50  33 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  36  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  39  30 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 120021
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...updated Friday temps...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd for KDDC/KGCK. Incoming
stratus could take KHYS down to MVFR by afternoon. Winds tonight will
eventually shift northwesterly then northerly overnight and finally
be northeasterly tomorrow. Magnitudes should be 5-15 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  47  21  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  50  23  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  56  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  55  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  28  38  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  47  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KDDC 120021
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...updated Friday temps...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd for KDDC/KGCK. Incoming
stratus could take KHYS down to MVFR by afternoon. Winds tonight will
eventually shift northwesterly then northerly overnight and finally
be northeasterly tomorrow. Magnitudes should be 5-15 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  47  21  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  50  23  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  56  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  55  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  28  38  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  47  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 120021
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...updated Friday temps...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd for KDDC/KGCK. Incoming
stratus could take KHYS down to MVFR by afternoon. Winds tonight will
eventually shift northwesterly then northerly overnight and finally
be northeasterly tomorrow. Magnitudes should be 5-15 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  47  21  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  50  23  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  56  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  55  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  28  38  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  47  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 112312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd for KDDC/KGCK. Incoming
stratus could take KHYS down to MVFR by afternoon. Winds tonight will
eventually shift northwesterly then northerly overnight and finally
be northeasterly tomorrow. Magnitudes should be 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  52  21  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  53  23  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  59  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  58  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  28  40  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  49  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KDDC 112312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd for KDDC/KGCK. Incoming
stratus could take KHYS down to MVFR by afternoon. Winds tonight will
eventually shift northwesterly then northerly overnight and finally
be northeasterly tomorrow. Magnitudes should be 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  52  21  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  53  23  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  59  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  58  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  28  40  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  49  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 112312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd for KDDC/KGCK. Incoming
stratus could take KHYS down to MVFR by afternoon. Winds tonight will
eventually shift northwesterly then northerly overnight and finally
be northeasterly tomorrow. Magnitudes should be 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  52  21  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  53  23  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  59  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  58  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  28  40  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  49  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden





000
FXUS63 KDDC 111926
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
126 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Some low stratus at KHYS is forecast to dissipate early this
afternoon, then reform early Friday am after 12Z as wind shifts
back to the light north-northeast. Elsewhere expect VFR with light
south to southwest winds shifting northwesterly at 5-12kt after
00-03Z as a weak surface trough moves across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  51  22  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  53  24  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  59  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  58  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  30  42  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  52  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse





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