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000
FXUS63 KDDC 042304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A strong upper level low currently entering the Pacific Northwest
will slide east northeast Saturday night then into central Canada
Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, An upper level high will spin
across the Southern Plains. Weak shortwaves look to swing around
the periphery of the upper level low affecting western Kansas from
time to time. Saturday night into Sunday as lee troughing
continues to bring warm moist air from the south. A weak cold
front is progged to move through the area Sunday night into Monday
in the wake of the first upper level shortwave moving through the
Northern Plains. This will bring an increase in cloudiness and a
slight chance of thunderstorms across central and south central
Kansas. This frontal boundary then stalls out somewhere across
southern portions of the CWA. There will be enough lift across
this boundary to have a few thunderstorms Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across south central
Kansas with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The second shortwave
looks to move through Nebraska Monday afternoon into Monday
evening leading to increased cloud cover across the remainder of
the CWA and spreading thunderstorm chances farther north. This
will also help push the surface cold front farther south into
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances continue north of this frontal
boundary Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A strong upper level shortwave is then anticipated to move south
through Central Canada Thursday and into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Thursday night into Friday. This will help push another
cold front through the area with continued chances of
thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs near 100 degrees are
expected Sunday then cooling down into the 80s by Tuesday behind
the aforementioned front. Lows will generally start out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday night then decrease into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the central high
plains through the start of the weekend period. Subtle upper level
waves embedded in this flow will cross western Kansas overnight
and Saturday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicated that only mid to
high level moisture will be present ahead of these upper waves so
VFR conditions can be expected overnight and Saturday. Gusty south
winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  69  97  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  95  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  72 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  72  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 042304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A strong upper level low currently entering the Pacific Northwest
will slide east northeast Saturday night then into central Canada
Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, An upper level high will spin
across the Southern Plains. Weak shortwaves look to swing around
the periphery of the upper level low affecting western Kansas from
time to time. Saturday night into Sunday as lee troughing
continues to bring warm moist air from the south. A weak cold
front is progged to move through the area Sunday night into Monday
in the wake of the first upper level shortwave moving through the
Northern Plains. This will bring an increase in cloudiness and a
slight chance of thunderstorms across central and south central
Kansas. This frontal boundary then stalls out somewhere across
southern portions of the CWA. There will be enough lift across
this boundary to have a few thunderstorms Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across south central
Kansas with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The second shortwave
looks to move through Nebraska Monday afternoon into Monday
evening leading to increased cloud cover across the remainder of
the CWA and spreading thunderstorm chances farther north. This
will also help push the surface cold front farther south into
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances continue north of this frontal
boundary Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A strong upper level shortwave is then anticipated to move south
through Central Canada Thursday and into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Thursday night into Friday. This will help push another
cold front through the area with continued chances of
thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs near 100 degrees are
expected Sunday then cooling down into the 80s by Tuesday behind
the aforementioned front. Lows will generally start out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday night then decrease into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the central high
plains through the start of the weekend period. Subtle upper level
waves embedded in this flow will cross western Kansas overnight
and Saturday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicated that only mid to
high level moisture will be present ahead of these upper waves so
VFR conditions can be expected overnight and Saturday. Gusty south
winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  69  97  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  95  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  72 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  72  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 042304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A strong upper level low currently entering the Pacific Northwest
will slide east northeast Saturday night then into central Canada
Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, An upper level high will spin
across the Southern Plains. Weak shortwaves look to swing around
the periphery of the upper level low affecting western Kansas from
time to time. Saturday night into Sunday as lee troughing
continues to bring warm moist air from the south. A weak cold
front is progged to move through the area Sunday night into Monday
in the wake of the first upper level shortwave moving through the
Northern Plains. This will bring an increase in cloudiness and a
slight chance of thunderstorms across central and south central
Kansas. This frontal boundary then stalls out somewhere across
southern portions of the CWA. There will be enough lift across
this boundary to have a few thunderstorms Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across south central
Kansas with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The second shortwave
looks to move through Nebraska Monday afternoon into Monday
evening leading to increased cloud cover across the remainder of
the CWA and spreading thunderstorm chances farther north. This
will also help push the surface cold front farther south into
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances continue north of this frontal
boundary Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A strong upper level shortwave is then anticipated to move south
through Central Canada Thursday and into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Thursday night into Friday. This will help push another
cold front through the area with continued chances of
thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs near 100 degrees are
expected Sunday then cooling down into the 80s by Tuesday behind
the aforementioned front. Lows will generally start out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday night then decrease into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the central high
plains through the start of the weekend period. Subtle upper level
waves embedded in this flow will cross western Kansas overnight
and Saturday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicated that only mid to
high level moisture will be present ahead of these upper waves so
VFR conditions can be expected overnight and Saturday. Gusty south
winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  69  97  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  95  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  72 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  72  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 042304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A strong upper level low currently entering the Pacific Northwest
will slide east northeast Saturday night then into central Canada
Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, An upper level high will spin
across the Southern Plains. Weak shortwaves look to swing around
the periphery of the upper level low affecting western Kansas from
time to time. Saturday night into Sunday as lee troughing
continues to bring warm moist air from the south. A weak cold
front is progged to move through the area Sunday night into Monday
in the wake of the first upper level shortwave moving through the
Northern Plains. This will bring an increase in cloudiness and a
slight chance of thunderstorms across central and south central
Kansas. This frontal boundary then stalls out somewhere across
southern portions of the CWA. There will be enough lift across
this boundary to have a few thunderstorms Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across south central
Kansas with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The second shortwave
looks to move through Nebraska Monday afternoon into Monday
evening leading to increased cloud cover across the remainder of
the CWA and spreading thunderstorm chances farther north. This
will also help push the surface cold front farther south into
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances continue north of this frontal
boundary Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A strong upper level shortwave is then anticipated to move south
through Central Canada Thursday and into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Thursday night into Friday. This will help push another
cold front through the area with continued chances of
thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs near 100 degrees are
expected Sunday then cooling down into the 80s by Tuesday behind
the aforementioned front. Lows will generally start out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday night then decrease into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the central high
plains through the start of the weekend period. Subtle upper level
waves embedded in this flow will cross western Kansas overnight
and Saturday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicated that only mid to
high level moisture will be present ahead of these upper waves so
VFR conditions can be expected overnight and Saturday. Gusty south
winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  69  97  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  95  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  72 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  72  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A strong upper level low currently entering the Pacific Northwest
will slide east northeast Saturday night then into central Canada
Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, An upper level high will spin
across the Southern Plains. Weak shortwaves look to swing around
the periphery of the upper level low affecting western Kansas from
time to time. Saturday night into Sunday as lee troughing
continues to bring warm moist air from the south. A weak cold
front is progged to move through the area Sunday night into Monday
in the wake of the first upper level shortwave moving through the
Northern Plains. This will bring an increase in cloudiness and a
slight chance of thunderstorms across central and south central
Kansas. This frontal boundary then stalls out somewhere across
southern portions of the CWA. There will be enough lift across
this boundary to have a few thunderstorms Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across south central
Kansas with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The second shortwave
looks to move through Nebraska Monday afternoon into Monday
evening leading to increased cloud cover across the remainder of
the CWA and spreading thunderstorm chances farther north. This
will also help push the surface cold front farther south into
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances continue north of this frontal
boundary Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A strong upper level shortwave is then anticipated to move south
through Central Canada Thursday and into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Thursday night into Friday. This will help push another
cold front through the area with continued chances of
thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs near 100 degrees are
expected Sunday then cooling down into the 80s by Tuesday behind
the aforementioned front. Lows will generally start out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday night then decrease into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
clouds. Winds will generally be from the south around 20 knots
with higher gusts this afternoon decreasing to around 14 knots
this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  69  97  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  95  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  72 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  72  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A strong upper level low currently entering the Pacific Northwest
will slide east northeast Saturday night then into central Canada
Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, An upper level high will spin
across the Southern Plains. Weak shortwaves look to swing around
the periphery of the upper level low affecting western Kansas from
time to time. Saturday night into Sunday as lee troughing
continues to bring warm moist air from the south. A weak cold
front is progged to move through the area Sunday night into Monday
in the wake of the first upper level shortwave moving through the
Northern Plains. This will bring an increase in cloudiness and a
slight chance of thunderstorms across central and south central
Kansas. This frontal boundary then stalls out somewhere across
southern portions of the CWA. There will be enough lift across
this boundary to have a few thunderstorms Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across south central
Kansas with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The second shortwave
looks to move through Nebraska Monday afternoon into Monday
evening leading to increased cloud cover across the remainder of
the CWA and spreading thunderstorm chances farther north. This
will also help push the surface cold front farther south into
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances continue north of this frontal
boundary Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A strong upper level shortwave is then anticipated to move south
through Central Canada Thursday and into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Thursday night into Friday. This will help push another
cold front through the area with continued chances of
thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs near 100 degrees are
expected Sunday then cooling down into the 80s by Tuesday behind
the aforementioned front. Lows will generally start out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday night then decrease into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
clouds. Winds will generally be from the south around 20 knots
with higher gusts this afternoon decreasing to around 14 knots
this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  69  97  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  95  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  72 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  72  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
clouds. Winds will generally be from the south around 20 knots
with higher gusts this afternoon decreasing to around 14 knots
this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  68  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
clouds. Winds will generally be from the south around 20 knots
with higher gusts this afternoon decreasing to around 14 knots
this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  68  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 041731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was moving northeastward into the
central plains early this morning, resulting in a few light
showers in central Kansas. This system was in advance of a much
larger upper level trough that was amplifying across the western
United States. Ahead of the western upper level system, surface
troughing persisted in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
continuation of south winds, deep vertical mixing and dilution of
low level moisture in the vertical. The upper level trough will
amplify through Saturday over the West before ejecting rapidly
northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday, helping to push
a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday. Zonal mid level flow
across the Rockies and resultant pressure falls will prevent this
front from pushing much father south than Kansas through Monday
and early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The light shower activity will exit this morning as the
aforementioned weak shortwave trough exits. There will be less
high cloud cover in the wake of this system compared to yesterday
so that temperatures should be warmer in many places. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 90s to near 100F. Isolated
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out once again just like yesterday.
Due to the high cloud bases, strong outflow winds will be the main
concern with any storm that develops. Any evening storms will
weaken and die this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
leaving some leftover high cloudiness tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
clouds. Winds will generally be from the south around 20 knots
with higher gusts this afternoon decreasing to around 14 knots
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  68  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was moving northeastward into the
central plains early this morning, resulting in a few light
showers in central Kansas. This system was in advance of a much
larger upper level trough that was amplifying across the western
United States. Ahead of the western upper level system, surface
troughing persisted in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
continuation of south winds, deep vertical mixing and dilution of
low level moisture in the vertical. The upper level trough will
amplify through Saturday over the West before ejecting rapidly
northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday, helping to push
a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday. Zonal mid level flow
across the Rockies and resultant pressure falls will prevent this
front from pushing much father south than Kansas through Monday
and early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The light shower activity will exit this morning as the
aforementioned weak shortwave trough exits. There will be less
high cloud cover in the wake of this system compared to yesterday
so that temperatures should be warmer in many places. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 90s to near 100F. Isolated
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out once again just like yesterday.
Due to the high cloud bases, strong outflow winds will be the main
concern with any storm that develops. Any evening storms will
weaken and die this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
leaving some leftover high cloudiness tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue today and tonight. A lee trough will
provide southerly surface winds of 20-30kt again today, then
decreasing and becoming more south to southeasterly tonight. Some
scattered mid to high clouds are forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  99  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  98  68  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse





000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was moving northeastward into the
central plains early this morning, resulting in a few light
showers in central Kansas. This system was in advance of a much
larger upper level trough that was amplifying across the western
United States. Ahead of the western upper level system, surface
troughing persisted in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
continuation of south winds, deep vertical mixing and dilution of
low level moisture in the vertical. The upper level trough will
amplify through Saturday over the West before ejecting rapidly
northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday, helping to push
a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday. Zonal mid level flow
across the Rockies and resultant pressure falls will prevent this
front from pushing much father south than Kansas through Monday
and early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The light shower activity will exit this morning as the
aforementioned weak shortwave trough exits. There will be less
high cloud cover in the wake of this system compared to yesterday
so that temperatures should be warmer in many places. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 90s to near 100F. Isolated
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out once again just like yesterday.
Due to the high cloud bases, strong outflow winds will be the main
concern with any storm that develops. Any evening storms will
weaken and die this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
leaving some leftover high cloudiness tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue today and tonight. A lee trough will
provide southerly surface winds of 20-30kt again today, then
decreasing and becoming more south to southeasterly tonight. Some
scattered mid to high clouds are forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  99  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  98  68  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was moving northeastward into the
central plains early this morning, resulting in a few light
showers in central Kansas. This system was in advance of a much
larger upper level trough that was amplifying across the western
United States. Ahead of the western upper level system, surface
troughing persisted in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
continuation of south winds, deep vertical mixing and dilution of
low level moisture in the vertical. The upper level trough will
amplify through Saturday over the West before ejecting rapidly
northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday, helping to push
a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday. Zonal mid level flow
across the Rockies and resultant pressure falls will prevent this
front from pushing much father south than Kansas through Monday
and early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The light shower activity will exit this morning as the
aforementioned weak shortwave trough exits. There will be less
high cloud cover in the wake of this system compared to yesterday
so that temperatures should be warmer in many places. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 90s to near 100F. Isolated
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out once again just like yesterday.
Due to the high cloud bases, strong outflow winds will be the main
concern with any storm that develops. Any evening storms will
weaken and die this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
leaving some leftover high cloudiness tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  98  71 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  98  68  96  70 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was moving northeastward into the
central plains early this morning, resulting in a few light
showers in central Kansas. This system was in advance of a much
larger upper level trough that was amplifying across the western
United States. Ahead of the western upper level system, surface
troughing persisted in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
continuation of south winds, deep vertical mixing and dilution of
low level moisture in the vertical. The upper level trough will
amplify through Saturday over the West before ejecting rapidly
northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday, helping to push
a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday. Zonal mid level flow
across the Rockies and resultant pressure falls will prevent this
front from pushing much father south than Kansas through Monday
and early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The light shower activity will exit this morning as the
aforementioned weak shortwave trough exits. There will be less
high cloud cover in the wake of this system compared to yesterday
so that temperatures should be warmer in many places. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 90s to near 100F. Isolated
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out once again just like yesterday.
Due to the high cloud bases, strong outflow winds will be the main
concern with any storm that develops. Any evening storms will
weaken and die this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
leaving some leftover high cloudiness tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  98  71 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  98  68  96  70 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  69  98  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  92  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  98  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  73  96  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  69  98  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  92  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  98  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  73  96  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 040557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  69  98  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  92  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  98  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  73  96  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  69  98  70  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  92  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  72  98  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  73  96  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 032317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Friday given that only mid to high level moisture
will accompany a series of upper level disturbances as they cross
western Kansas over the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds will
decrease to around 15 knots after sunset. On Friday the south
winds will increase to around 20 knots by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  99  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  97  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  97  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
P28  71  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032317
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Friday given that only mid to high level moisture
will accompany a series of upper level disturbances as they cross
western Kansas over the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds will
decrease to around 15 knots after sunset. On Friday the south
winds will increase to around 20 knots by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  99  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  97  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  97  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
P28  71  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  99  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  97  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  97  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
P28  71  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  99  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  97  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  97  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
P28  71  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  99  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  97  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  97  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
P28  71  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Above average temperatures will continue through early next week as
deep tropospheric southwesterly downslope momentum will persist. The
deep longwave trough across western North America will shift slowly
east, with a rather vigorous mid-latitude cyclone developing within
the mean longwave trough pattern. This cyclone will remain well
north of the Central Plains -- so far north in fact, that the
initial cold front push will be fairly weak. This first indication
of this front will be late Sunday, but this this frontal push will
lose momentum and stall out somewhere across western/northwestern
Kansas. The GFS model is fairly persistent in developing convection
along this initial frontal push late Sunday afternoon. We will have
some 20-30 POPs in the grids for the Sunday Night period, as any
convection will likely be late in the day/evening. As warm as the
mid levels will be, we probably won`t even see surface-based
convection along the boundary this far west (most likely across
central/northeast KS).  The front will stall out across the
northern half of Kansas on Monday with a surface low developing
along it somewhere across western Kansas late in the afternoon as a
warm thermal ridge expands east-northeastward. Monday looks to be
yet another hot day...perhaps the warmest day of this entire warm
stretch with a number of locations touching or exceeding triple
digits.

Monday and Tuesday definitely look like better opportunities for
organized strong/severe thunderstorm activity affecting at least
some portion of southwest/west central/south central KS. ECMWF
shows better low level moisture and hence higher SBCAPE Monday
afternoon. If we can see some lower-mid 60s dewpoints east of a
dryline late Monday afternoon, then severe weather prospects look
good, since deep layer shear will be favorable for organized
multicell or supercell thunderstorms (0-6km AGL shear magnitude of
30 to 36 kts). With the front not likely moving a whole lot
Tuesday, strong/severe storm prospects still look good, with the
emphasis a bit farther south across far southwest/south central KS
perhaps. Eventually, the mid level front will be pushing in to
Kansas with better deep tropospheric frontogenesis for elevated
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  99  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  97  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  97  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  99  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
P28  71  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern Plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms will
be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing during
this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  99  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS 100  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  99  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern Plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms will
be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing during
this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  99  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS 100  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  99  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The morning upper air analysis and water vapor loop continued to
reveal a fairly deep longwave trough centered across the coast of
western North America with downstream ridging centered across the
central CONUS. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific was
responsible for proving a stream of high level moisture (in the form
of cirrus/cirrostratus) into the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Lee trough convergence will be best across far eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. This will be
the best area for isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorm activity. We will have some 15 POPs in far west central
Kansas counties for the possibility of a lee trough storm much like
yesterday late afternoon, however any thunderstorm will be fairly
short lived and quite isolated given the lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent.

The story will be much the same on Friday with the lee trough in
check across eastern CO/northwest KS. A subtropical jet streak will
push northeast from the Desert Southwest region into the Colorado
Rockies, but deep tropospheric ascent tied to this jetlet will be
well to the northwest of the southwest KS region, so the forecast
will remain dry...and hot. As far as temperatures go, persistence is
a good forecast method so highs in the 97 to 100F range look pretty
good for much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern Plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms will
be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing during
this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

The south to southwest winds will continue through Friday as we
remain in a quasi-steady synoptic pattern with a moderately deep lee
trough in place across the length of the High Plains. Any isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm activity will remain west of the
terminals, including GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  99  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS 100  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  99  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern Plains
by Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and brief rains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern Plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms will
be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing during
this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will continue. A lee surface trough will remain
with gusty south winds of 20-32kt by mid morning, then decrease
again before sunset to 12-20kt. Some cirrus cloudiness is forecast
to increase in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern Plains
by Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and brief rains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern Plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms will
be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing during
this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will continue. A lee surface trough will remain
with gusty south winds of 20-32kt by mid morning, then decrease
again before sunset to 12-20kt. Some cirrus cloudiness is forecast
to increase in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse





000
FXUS63 KDDC 031101
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern Plains
by Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and brief rains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern Plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms will
be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing during
this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will continue. A lee surface trough will remain
with gusty south winds of 20-32kt by mid morning, then decrease
again before sunset to 12-20kt. Some cirrus cloudiness is forecast
to increase in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for synopsis, short term and long term discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern plains by
Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and briefrains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms
will be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing
during this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for synopsis, short term and long term discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern plains by
Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and briefrains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms
will be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing
during this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for synopsis, short term and long term discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern plains by
Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and briefrains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms
will be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing
during this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for synopsis, short term and long term discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was located over New Mexico early
this morning and there was a large area of high clouds associated
with it. Lee troughing was persistent in the lee of the Rockies,
with southerly surface winds. A large upper level trough will
amplify across the western United States through early Saturday
and then rapidly eject northeastward across the northern plains by
Sunday. A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of this feature, then the associated cold front will
progress southward and stall over western Kansas by late Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon ahead of
the aforementioned shortwave trough and ahead of the surface
trough. Given the expected high dewpoint depressions, only some
gusty winds and briefrains can be expected with these storms.
Given the lack of ET generated low level moisture at this time as
plants are curing, temperatures have been getting warmer than
expected, and this will persist today. Highs ought to top out at
least in the upper 90s. The NAM looks too cool and the RAP/HRRR
that were too warm all summer may not be that far off now with
their warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through Sunday ahead of
the surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Again due to the
high dewpoint depressions, only some strong wind gusts are
expected along with the brief heavy rain. These isolated storm chances
will edge eastward by Saturday and Sunday into the remainder of
southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures will be about the same
each day with highs in the mid 90s to near 100F and lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

As the cold front arrives by Sunday night and stalls out over the
central or southern plains, there are slight chances for
thunderstorms from Sunday night into mid week. The best chances
for storms will be east of the 100th meridian where the richest
moisture will reside. It is too early to tell if these storms
will be severe. However, low level moisture will be increasing
during this period, so some severe weather wouldn`t be a surprise.
Temperatures should be highest along the Oklahoma state line
closer to the front and lower near Interstate 70, with 80s and 90s
most likely. Temperatures may cool off a bit more by late to late
next week as another shortwave trough passes across the northern
plains along with an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  98  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  96  71  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  98  69  97 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  96  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  98  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  98  69  97 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  96  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  98  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 030600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  98  69  97 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  96  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  98  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 030600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  98  69  97 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  96  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  98  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022318
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Thursday. Winds overnight will be from the south at
10 to 15 knots. On Thursday the south winds will increase into the
15 to 20 knot range by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  69  96  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  95  68  93 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  96  69  95 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  94  71  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022318
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Thursday. Winds overnight will be from the south at
10 to 15 knots. On Thursday the south winds will increase into the
15 to 20 knot range by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  69  96  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  95  68  93 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  96  69  95 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  94  71  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 022318
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Thursday. Winds overnight will be from the south at
10 to 15 knots. On Thursday the south winds will increase into the
15 to 20 knot range by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  69  96  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  95  68  93 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  96  69  95 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  94  71  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert





000
FXUS63 KDDC 022046
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday as we
remain in the large warm sector with synoptic south to southwest
winds. Midday through late afternoon wind speeds both today and
Thursday will range 15 to 20 knots sustained at DDC and HYS
terminals with nocturnal winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. Wind
speeds will be slightly lower at GCK closer to the lee trough
axis.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  69  96  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  95  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  70  96  69  95 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  94  71  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 022046
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday as we
remain in the large warm sector with synoptic south to southwest
winds. Midday through late afternoon wind speeds both today and
Thursday will range 15 to 20 knots sustained at DDC and HYS
terminals with nocturnal winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. Wind
speeds will be slightly lower at GCK closer to the lee trough
axis.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  69  96  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  95  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  70  96  69  95 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  94  71  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid





000
FXUS63 KDDC 021735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigorous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday as we
remain in the large warm sector with synoptic south to southwest
winds. Midday through late afternoon wind speeds both today and
Thursday will range 15 to 20 knots sustained at DDC and HYS
terminals with nocturnal winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. Wind
speeds will be slightly lower at GCK closer to the lee trough
axis.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  97  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 021735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigorous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday as we
remain in the large warm sector with synoptic south to southwest
winds. Midday through late afternoon wind speeds both today and
Thursday will range 15 to 20 knots sustained at DDC and HYS
terminals with nocturnal winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. Wind
speeds will be slightly lower at GCK closer to the lee trough
axis.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  97  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid





000
FXUS63 KDDC 021100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Continued high plains lee
troughing will result in a diurnal increase of southerly winds from
10-15 kt to around 20 kt by late morning. A decrease down to 12-17 kt
is expected towards dusk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KDDC 021100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Continued high plains lee
troughing will result in a diurnal increase of southerly winds from
10-15 kt to around 20 kt by late morning. A decrease down to 12-17 kt
is expected towards dusk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS63 KDDC 021100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Continued high plains lee
troughing will result in a diurnal increase of southerly winds from
10-15 kt to around 20 kt by late morning. A decrease down to 12-17 kt
is expected towards dusk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 021100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Continued high plains lee
troughing will result in a diurnal increase of southerly winds from
10-15 kt to around 20 kt by late morning. A decrease down to 12-17 kt
is expected towards dusk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR flight categories will hold through this TAF period. Southerly
surface winds will remain steady around 12 knots and become gusty in
the late morning due to boundary layer mixing. Convection, even
elevated or high based is not expected for any of the terminal
locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR flight categories will hold through this TAF period. Southerly
surface winds will remain steady around 12 knots and become gusty in
the late morning due to boundary layer mixing. Convection, even
elevated or high based is not expected for any of the terminal
locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 020853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR flight categories will hold through this TAF period. Southerly
surface winds will remain steady around 12 knots and become gusty in
the late morning due to boundary layer mixing. Convection, even
elevated or high based is not expected for any of the terminal
locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell





000
FXUS63 KDDC 020853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

At this time, both the 4 km NAM and ARW are far too aggressive
with isolated/scattered convection in or around the western
sections of the forecast area. At least in the case of the 4km
NAM, it appears to carry over into the later morning hours today,
but we will maintain a dry forecast in all locations. Another
warm day is expected this afternoon with warm breezy southerly
winds and highs in the mid to upper 90s once again. Although this
is warmer than typical upper 80s for this time of year, it falls
far short of the daily record highs in the low 100`s in 2011/2012.
Southerly surface winds on the lee of the trough will become gusty
iin the late morning, and decouple with the usualy diurnal cycle
before anotehr mild overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigourous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR flight categories will hold through this TAF period. Southerly
surface winds will remain steady around 12 knots and become gusty in
the late morning due to boundary layer mixing. Convection, even
elevated or high based is not expected for any of the terminal
locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  96  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell





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