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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250502
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  86  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  87  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 250016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
716 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE
WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FROM THE WINDS JUST ALOFT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE  THREAT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  84  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS63 KDDC 242038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  84  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 242030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  84  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 241759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  84  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH





000
FXUS63 KDDC 241048
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
548 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 2SM TO 4SM WILL PERSIST UNTIL
14Z WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WITH SOME CIRRUS. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FROM KGCK TO KDDC TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRESENT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THE STRATUS TO MIGRATE AS FAR WEST AS
KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240630
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
130 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRESENT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THE STRATUS TO MIGRATE AS FAR WEST AS
KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240517
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A
WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN THE 50S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRESENT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THE STRATUS TO MIGRATE AS FAR WEST AS
KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  86  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240240
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
940 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A
WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN THE 50S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10KNOTS OR LESS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. BURF SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY IN THE LOWERS LEVELS WHEN COMPARED TO BUFR
SOUNDING PROFILES AT 12Z THURSDAY SO ALTHOUGH SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
DROP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK AT GCK WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 240240
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
940 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A
WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN THE 50S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10KNOTS OR LESS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. BURF SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY IN THE LOWERS LEVELS WHEN COMPARED TO BUFR
SOUNDING PROFILES AT 12Z THURSDAY SO ALTHOUGH SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
DROP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK AT GCK WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 232322
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10KNOTS OR LESS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. BURF SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY IN THE LOWERS LEVELS WHEN COMPARED TO BUFR
SOUNDING PROFILES AT 12Z THURSDAY SO ALTHOUGH SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
DROP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK AT GCK WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 232054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS BR/FG REDEVELOPS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE RIGHT NOW, BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND INSERT IN TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 231900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS BR/FG REDEVELOPS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE RIGHT NOW, BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND INSERT IN TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  87  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 231900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS BR/FG REDEVELOPS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE RIGHT NOW, BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND INSERT IN TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  87  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 231700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODESTLY STRONG, A LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/GFS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TEENS(C). HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HINDER
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F)
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS BR/FG REDEVELOPS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE RIGHT NOW, BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND INSERT IN TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  51  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 231700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODESTLY STRONG, A LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/GFS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TEENS(C). HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HINDER
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F)
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS BR/FG REDEVELOPS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE RIGHT NOW, BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND INSERT IN TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  51  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 231125
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODESTLY STRONG, A LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/GFS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TEENS(C). HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HINDER
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F)
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FROM KGCK TO KHYS. AT KDDC THE FOG
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE WITH BKN IFR/MVFR CIGS. THE AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AM WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  51  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230825
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODESTLY STRONG, A LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/GFS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TEENS(C). HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HINDER
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F)
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG BY DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  51  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
102 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODESTLY STRONG, A LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/GFS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TEENS(C). HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HINDER
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F)
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG BY DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  54  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  51  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  53  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230503
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOLLOWING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EDGING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS
SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 50S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG BY DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  85  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  51  85  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  53  83  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  86  55  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230503
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOLLOWING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EDGING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS
SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 50S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG BY DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  85  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  51  85  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  53  83  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  86  55  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON





000
FXUS63 KDDC 230315
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1015 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOLLOWING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EDGING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS
SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 50S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY A GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. LIFR CEILING IN STATUS AND AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK TO
AROUND 1/2MILE, MAINLY AFTER 09Z, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS STATUS AND FOG WILL
BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH BREAKS OF SUN AND VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  85 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  53  83 /  20   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 222345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY A GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. LIFR CEILING IN STATUS AND AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK TO
AROUND 1/2MILE, MAINLY AFTER 09Z, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS STATUS AND FOG WILL
BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH BREAKS OF SUN AND VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  51  85 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  86 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  85 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  53  83 /  40   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT





000
FXUS63 KDDC 222010
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 221811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN





000
FXUS63 KDDC 221352
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
852 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE FOR MESOSCALE TRENDS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 221141
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42





000
FXUS63 KDDC 220740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  50  50   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXUS63 KDDC 220642
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  53  77  53 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  73  49  78  51 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  75  52  79  52 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  73  52 /  60  70   0   0
P28  77  56  79  55 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE





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